American defenders at Guam (and other bases) cannot simply dismiss the threat of massed Chinese aerial drone attacks as fighting in the shade.
China has been adapting the Iranian Shaheed drone, known as the Sunflower-200, to attack American targets in Guam and the Western Pacific. China is obtaining or making one million OWA/One Way Attack drones for a constant million drone swarm campaign. The objective is to destroy or suppress American /Taiwan/allied military logistics and bases from Guam to the China coast for at least ten weeks throughout a Taiwan invasion. These would crush defenses like a modern Pearl Harbor-style strike, turning bases into what 1940 Philippines ports looked like, by day three.
As I've often observed:
I think people miss the point that China doesn’t have to defeat America to win the war. China has to defeat Taiwan. China only needs to delay the American intervention long enough to beat Taiwan.
If hammering our bases works to keep America pinned down long enough, China will fling an army across the Taiwan Strait with a constellation of means--including support offshore--to build a bridgehead.
And even if China doesn't buy enough time to advance on Taipei, just getting a secure bridgehead is a major step to ultimately conquering all of Taiwan.
The air raid sirens are figuratively wailing. Will we act before they are real?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: I made the illustration with Bing.
