Russia has growing problems rising from its failed war to conquer Ukraine. Logistics are the least of them.
The war goes on. Russia's offensive seems to have contracted to the effort to take the Ukrainian city of Kostyantynivka. This isn't Stalin's Red Army anymore. In the strategic air war, Ukraine focuses on military logistics and is affecting the Russians from the front to the Russian defense industrial base and fuel production/export.
I've read and seen more reports that Ukraine is succeeding in cutting off Crimea from supplies. I refrain from concluding this will truly isolate the Russians--as opposed to adding to Russian logistics difficulties--given what I read about American interdiction in the Korean War against railroad lines. Apparently, the North Koreans/Chinese only needed 5% of capacity to keep enough supplies flowing to their troops.* Still, I can see a politically devastating (for Putin) image of Russian civilians heading east across the Kerch Strait Bridge and becoming refugees to escape the impact of Russia prioritizing their security forces for the supplies that make it by road, rail, sea, and air.
And while that reality means Ukraine has at least survived due to its sacrifices, Russia stepped on multiple rakes:
Russia is currently entering a new Time of Troubles, similar to the fifteen years of chaos in Russia 500 years ago. The current version is similar in that the major supporters of Vladimir Puttin and the war in Ukraine have started backing away from the war. Public opinion is increasingly against the war and hostile to allowing their sons and brothers to be recruited into the army to die uselessly. Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s assistants, advisors and staff are hiding or downplaying what is actually happening with the economy plus, in the Ukraine war, the growing Ukrainian victories and the plummeting morale of Russian soldiers.
I've certainly wondered about that outcome as the price Russia might pay.
Will the collapse of the Russian army be the trigger? Or an effect of disorder at home? Or will the clusterf**k be so densely packed that it is hard to tell cause from effect?
Is this the first act of the Time of Troubles?
The Russian military command is reportedly withdrawing forces from the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine is rendering defenses in the area increasingly untenable.
I'll be watching this long-quiet part of the front. Will exposure at the front and growing supply problems lead to more withdrawals?
The Russian military command reportedly prohibited military cargo traffic along Russia’s main highway connecting mainland Russia to Crimea due to Ukrainian strikes.
And I wonder if it gets much, much worse for Russia.
So far Putin retains enough popular support for him if not for Russia's deteriorating conditions and loss of life. But "if only the tsar knew!" won't protect Putin for long.
Is it too late for Putin to save himself and perhaps Russia itself with a radical move that recognizes the true threat to Russia? Because if Russia enters a Time of Troubles, China will pounce.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
*That figure is my memory of it. Might be different. But the effect of whatever percentage I read was that not much capacity was needed, making our interdiction effort difficult. Have things changed? Is Ukraine more than 95% effective?
