For Want of a Mission Module, The Ship Class Fell

The Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) had too many ambitious goals to succeed.

I still think the LCS concept was valid. The failure of the class was in large part building the modules: 

The LCS was intended to replace 30 larger Perry class frigates and 26 smaller mine warfare ships. That did not work out as planned because of delays in completing the task-specific mission modules that enabled an LCS to quickly install specialized equipment, which was accompanied by a team of specialists to operate it. This enabled an LCS to handle mine warfare, surface combat, air defense and so on. While the first LCS entered service in 2008, the first Mission Modules didn’t arrive until 2018 and none of these modules worked as originally planned. Not only were the modules all late, some were cancelled and all were way over budget because of a variety of problems navy planners did not anticipate, but could have if they had paid more attention to all the potential problems with developing these modules.

The LCS class is being pared down dramatically. 

And without the modules, my modularized auxiliary cruiser concept falters in its full application. 

With some luck, the modular concept will reappear in the future better for the failures of the LCS effort.

Every Marine a Tactician

Marine initial training is getting much longer in order to provide more proficiency right off the bat.

That's interesting:

Training for new Marines will become more rigorous as troops start to conduct more complex operations in smaller units, the commandant told senators Thursday.

“Through [a Marine’s] entry-level training to [his or her] first unit, we have to raise the bar because we’re going to expect noncommissioned officers and junior officers to make decisions that two levels up, they make today,” Gen. David Berger said during a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing on the Navy and Marine Corps budget for 2022. 

The major point of an article I wrote for the USNI Blog in 2018 was that technology is going to erode the marksmanship advantage the Marines have counted on to dominate infantry combat. "Every Marine a rifleman" is no longer going to cut it.

New weapons that any militia can use to aim with high accuracy should force the Marines to drastically change training to emphasize leadership and tactical skill to maintain tactical dominance. Because even when Marines have those super weapons, enemies will have them too, or at least versions good enough to greatly erode the Marine marksmanship edge.

Is this training change a reaction to the technology change that I described? Or it could simply be that the new model of small dispersed Marine detachments directly supporting the Navy sea control mission is the driving factor. That's actually my guess.

Still, it is a good change for my reasons for wanting it.

The Image of Inevitable Victory

The Taliban are ramping up their information operations by taking insignificant district capitals. The cumulative effect might be devastating.

The Taliban keep taking district capitals (like our country seats) and publicizing the actions:

Yet, the seemingly never-ending succession of battlefield setbacks that suddenly accelerated this weekend is beginning to create a perception of inevitability about a Taliban takeover. It is a perception that, unless quickly reversed, risks snowballing into a self-fulfilling prophecy, Afghan officials warn.

The issue is whether Afghan government forces see these victories as meaningless or telegraphing a Taliban victory. This is a dangerous period when fear can override common sense:

On paper, the Afghan government can hold. But in the real world, fear of death is heightened by the American-led withdrawal. If enough time passes without a general collapse of government morale, the paper balance will win out. 

But the Taliban have a window of opportunity when fear of the unknown without America holding the hand of government forces makes government officials and forces scared enough to preemptively give up. 

Yet here we are doing nothing to bolster the Afghan forces' morale until the sense of panic and doom can pass. 

Not that the emerging problem isn't recognized:

America could slow down its withdrawal from Afghanistan amid rapid battlefield gains by the Taliban which have raised alarm in Nato capitals, the Pentagon said.  

Ashraf Ghani's forces have been swept out of many rural areas since the insurgents launched a nationwide offensive at the start of May.

But the real solution is to halt--not slow--the withdrawal and remain to help the government kill jihadis.

But no, instead of doing something that might help we will contribute to the impression being cultivated by the Taliban (despite their own heavy casualties) that the Taliban are destined to win:

The State Department and the Pentagon are working on plans to evacuate thousands of Afghan citizens who worked for the United States during the 20-year war in Afghanistan, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby confirmed Thursday at a news conference.

Brilliant.

I'm so old I remember when the Democrats were strident about Afghanistan being the "good war".

But that change was predictable.

When you start to kill jihadis, kill jihadis.

The Hunter Art of the Deal

No obstacle will prevent the Biden administration from getting a nuclear deal with Iran, no matter who it helps or hurts in Iran.

Is Iran's theocratic leadership done "pretending" it has democracy with the rigged election of Raisi? Will this be the turning point for the fall of the theocracy? I find the American pretending more significant: 

For the United States, Raisi’s election, viewed through the prism of ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran, heightens the Biden administration’s sense of urgency to conclude a deal before an inevitably more rigid Iranian administration is inaugurated on August 8.

As I've long said, the outline of any nuclear deal with Iran is simple: Iran pretends it doesn't want nukes. And America pretends to believe Iran.

Of course, the author of the initial article is part of the problem. The author complains not that Raisi is a butcher and religious fanatic--but that Republicans will "pounce" on that to oppose Iran's butchering theocracy as it seeks regional dominance and nuclear weapons. The latter is the real problem for Biden. FFS. 

Still, that author has some sense of reality: 

As long as Iran’s security forces remain united and willing to kill en masse, and Iran’s society remains disunited and unwilling to die en masse, the tipping points will continue to tip in the regime’s favor.

If only that understanding could be generalized to appreciate that deals with such a regime are pointless delusions. Rather than being an incentive to hurry to a deal, Iran's election of an open nutball is bad: 

Mr Raisi’s election and his subsequent public hardline stance shows the regime’s implacable intent. It appears to see no reason to make peace with its neighbours, to restrict its hegemonic tendencies, to refrain from obstructing the development of nations that have long been tormented by geopolitical ambitions, all for the purpose of projecting its power. [para] The only difference now is that the false mask of diplomatic niceties of the outgoing Iranian administration has also been cast aside.

This is bad for the Biden administration because it will increase the degree of difficulty for Iran's Democratic fanboys (and fangirls) to bribe Iran to accept a new Iran nuclear deal that doesn't stop Iran from going nuclear. 

But the Biden team is up to the task with their trademarked Smart Diplomacy: 

The lack of an interim agreement between the U.N. nuclear watchdog and Iran on the monitoring of atomic activities is a serious concern that has been communicated to Tehran, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Friday.

Claiming the IAEA is the key to a deal subcontracts responsibility for inevitable failure to an amorphous international entity rather than putting it squarely on Biden (and Obama before him).

Behold how well IAEA inspections thwarted Iran when there was an agreement on monitoring.

Have a super sparkly day.

The Wonder Tank is Still the Abrams

The Abrams endures. Tanks will not be obsolete no matter how vulnerable they are (that vulnerability is nothing new in the endless struggle between protection and weapons) until a replacement system that provides mobile, protected, firepower arrives.

So the Abrams tank will live on in the M1A2SEPV4: 

These improvements to the tank’s gun, ammunition, armor, sensors, communications and other features haven’t just kept the Abrams relevant, they have left planners with little basis for imagining what could possibly replace the nation’s premier armored combat vehicle.

Although my understanding was that the platform is reaching the limits of upgrades.

Perhaps that has changed? Maybe the limits of upgrading are bypassed with technology that allows a new turret and drone "wing men" within a surveillance and kill web extend the reach of the tanks and make them completely different to the current main battle tank platforms, as I hinted in this essay on future warfare, akin to "heavy M11A1 Legion main battle tandems" that are a system of linked platforms.

Although I don't rule out that the replacement is a new "Sherman" that is semi-expendable and cheap. That compromise might be the best option for great power competition rather than futilely pursuing the wonder tank.

My old article in Military Review (see pp. 28-33) on the basics of a replacement is still relevant, it seems.

The End of Another Pandemic

The specter of the dread Russian threat once mocked by Democrats but suddenly embraced by them from 2016 to 2020 is ending. So two pandemics are winding down.

Democrats are no longer perpetually agitated about the Russians: 

Now comes Biden, making moves in Russia policy that are essentially conciliatory — freezing a military aid package to Ukraine, ending U.S. sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline linking Germany to Russia, a return of ambassadors — and setting up a summit that can reasonably be regarded as a modest propaganda coup for Putin.

The Democratic rage against Russia was as sudden as it was out of character. 

You remember the not-so-distant mockery of the notion of a Russian threat and the Obama concessions to Putin, right?

I figured the rage wouldn't last after Trump. The change is dramatic: 

If the Colonial Pipeline ransom hack was carried out by the white supremacist Unicorn that liberals claim are everywhere, the White House would call it a terrorist attack. It's really pretty amazing. Democrats went full Jack (D) Ripper in 2016 in their hatred of Russia. But now that Democrats have power in Washington, D.C., a Russian hack that disabled a major fuel pipeline for about a week is just business.

So yeah, the Russians are no longer the all-purpose Big Bad for Democrats:

Did bizarre Russian charges of "Russophobia" finally hit home with the woke-adjacent crowd?

And undermining allies is the other side of the suck-up-to-Russia coin. 

Not that Russia is unique. All our enemies will get the systemically stupid "you guys are just friends we haven't made yet" treatment.

Weekend Date Dump

Cast a giant crazy shadow.

That was totally different.

I'd laugh at the morons except that I basically really feel sorry for the youth who have been brainwashed into believing they are racist people. Tip to Instapundit.

Even if the government isn't suppressing free speech, someone is. The answer will likely be that people will eventually rebel against the control that social media is exerting. For free information and debates, these people will migrate to other platforms. Those who remain in the censored platforms will be the ones most comfortable with being spoon fed nice soft soothing information. And for cat and painful groin injury videos plus posting your vacation photos, as God intended.

After repeated beatings from the flaming clue bat, California gets a clue: "California is now directing $500 million dollars on forest management to reduce the risk of fires after a devastating wildfire season." I guess there was a decent interval between Trump and the decision. And yes, believe your own damn eyes and see that California is getting hotter and drier. The funny thing about global warming is that it is an average of global regional temperature trends. And regardless of that, as governor Newsom has a duty to mitigate the problem--even if Trump advocated it--and not just pray to Gaia for salvation.

Ordinary people will suffer from a premature bet on green energy. The well off won't experience any change in lifestyle and will be able to feel morally superior for their so-called "green" lifestyle. Nobody will mention that their "green" lavish lifestyle could sustain 10 (or whatever the ratio is) blue collar families who must now use the dirty and sinful fossil fuels available at higher prices. And nobody's sense of superiority will be dirtied by understanding how windmills and solar panels are produced and disposed of when worn out and broken.

In related news on the frigate aspect of the LCS failure that led to buying the French-Italian FREMM design: "Normally the U.S. Navy does not buy foreign ships or ship designs. In this case the navy wanted something that was a proven design and met the requirements for its Constellation class. FREMM did this best and the U.S. Navy will let the European builders do their thing[.]" In a longer war with China or Russia, replacing losses will only involve ships already under construction and the smaller ships like the frigates which could be built faster than capital ships. If the Europeans can build them during a war, we've done a lot to cope with our lack of shipbuilding and repair capacity. 

A reminder that the constant leftist complaint that "fighting jihadi terrorists just makes more terrorists" is BS. Killing terrorists works:  "Some critics say this approach motivates more Moslems to support terrorism. This ignores what media, and popular opinion in Moslem nations, has been preaching since the 1980s. The Arab message was consistently very anti-West and pro-Islamic terrorism. That opinion only changes when the terrorists lose. That's when Islamic terrorists eventually become unpopular in Moslem majority countries. Despite more opportunities to attack non-Moslems, over 90 percent of their victims are Moslems. This is unpopular with nearby Moslem civilians, as it was for over a thousand years whenever there was an outbreak of fanatic 'defend Islam' activity where the deaths were about 99 percent Moslems. These people know that Western tactics kill far fewer Moslems than those of Islamic terrorists but have long been reluctant to dwell on that." As I've written, only fighting jihadis ineffectively makes more jihadis. I worry our retreats from the frontlines of this fight reduce our ability to kill jihadis. Which could simply make more jihadis.

By that logic, taxpayer money going to turn out the vote in big cities is not tax-exempt because big city dwellers overwhelmingly vote for Democrats. Wow! This game really is fun to play! Tip to Instapundit.

I'm going to need more than speculation to think the FBI had a hand in the January 6, 2021 Capitol Building riot. But to be fair to the FBI, stings on even moron jihadi wannabes discourages others from trying to join cells out of fear. This is a useful tactic. Also, moron jihadis only look sad when they fail. When they succeed their prior idiocy and sinfulness under Islamic rules becomes irrelevant.

Supporting Lebanon's armed forces is fine. But they can't replace Hezbollah until someone else knocks them down.

Before we expand our Navy, let's make sure what we have can fight--like our new Virginia-class submarines: "Parts are being shuttled regularly among the nuclear-powered fast-attack submarines so that vessels in the $166 billion class built by General Dynamics Corp. and Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. can return to operations, according to data from the Naval Sea Systems Command and the Congressional Budget Office."

The U.S. is willing to spend money on getting rare earths not reliant on Chinese sources: "The U.S. and other Western governments are rushing to secure domestic supplies of materials including rare earths, lithium and boron, which are essential for growing technologies such as electric vehicles, satellites and wind turbines. They also want to develop the capability to process them." Spending wisely is another matter. Fingers crossed.

Committing the reserves: "Last week China announced plans to release government reserves of some key commodities – including copper, aluminium and zinc (but not iron ore) – to counter high prices and some supply shortages that are driving up raw material costs for its manufacturers." The author believes it is a futile gesture to dampen commodity price inflation. Beats me. But does it indicate China has no plans to initiate a war that might lead to a blockade of Chinese raw material imports?

I repeatedly mention hopes that we will reach peak stupidity with leftist insanity. I'm starting to think there is leftist "systemic stupidity."

I worry that there is a window of danger after NATO is out of Afghanistan during which government morale is vulnerable to cracking and shattering. Given time, Afghan government supporters and security forces will gain confidence they can fight and win without our direct presence and support. But the Taliban are working hard to get the cracking going: "'We strongly believe the U.S. military was terribly defeated in Afghanistan,' Khalid Zadran, a Taliban media official, told The Daily Beast. 'And they’re running away from Afghanistan in a hurry.' An ex-minister of the militant group described similar reactions: 'Today the Taliban are in the highest military morale,' he said. 'And Afghan soldiers are losing the enthusiasm to fight with the Taliban.'" The Taliban may be wrong. But the recognize an opportunity to shape reality.

Critical Race Theory tells us that white people are evil and that people of color are helpless losers. This is appealing and helpful ... how? Feel free to think you are evil. But leave me out of it. I'm not playing your stupid guilt-trip game that is so horrifyingly condescending to minorities and cruel to white people that I am nearly speechless. Really, I'm Super Anti-Racist. Which means I refuse to discuss race issues with self-described racists. Such monsters would delete the first half of this video to portray a vicious hate crime as a racist white toddler chases down a victimized Black toddler.

Iran sends a message. 

Seriously, the problem with trans-Atlantic relations isn't America--or even Trump. It's the Europeans who simply can't be happy with America no matter how much we suck up to them. And sucking up to the European Union which hopes to strip away the prefix of their proto-imperial project is folly. But I strongly object to the idea that America should turn NATO over to the Europeans. We should never turn over that giant source of potential power to apparatchiki who despise America. Defending Europe is not a gift to Europeans. It is an effort to prevent a threat from arising in Europe, whether externally or internally imposed.

Progressive privilege.

The Biden administration will lust after Iran even more after the newest nutball plays hard-to-get prior to taking office: "Ebrahim Raisi, formerly the chief of Iran’s judiciary, said on Monday that he is unwilling to negotiate over the proliferation of his country’s nuclear weapons program, something the United States and close regional ally Israel seek to slow, and urged the U.S. to ease pressures imposed on top officials and the Iranian economy."

Well, the shutdown of Iran's only energy-producing nuclear reactor could be from "technical issues".

Thankfully, Biden's strange desire to embrace Iran will run into regional opposition: "Israel’s new foreign minister will head to the United Arab Emirates next week for the first known visit by a top Israeli diplomat to the Gulf Arab country, the ministry said Monday."

I didn't think Trump's outreach to North Korea would work to end North Korea's nuclear ambitions. I have less hope that Biden's outreach will succeed in anything but persuading Kim Jong-Un to take our money. 

Iran's Houthi proxies continue to enter the meat grinder around Marib: "The Houthis have been attempting since February to capture Marib to complete their control over the northern part of Yemen. But they have not made substantial progress and suffered heavy losses amid stiff resistance from government forces aided by the Saudi-led coalition supporting them." No worries. Iran is more than happy to fight for its objectives to the last dead Arab.

Systemically stupid. FYI, FFS, I get eye glasses sores on my nose if I wear glasses too long. Tip to Insanity Wrap.

Figuratively--for now--burning books. It is shameful it has come to this.

What the school board is saying is that there is no way its teachers can possibly teach hard subjects to minority students. How Progressive of them. There's no way that racists would have similar thoughts, eh? Tip to Instapundit.

Somehow, California managed to design a legal marijuana business that is unable to make a profit selling marijuana to Californians.

Is Nigeria sliding toward civil war? And if so, how much will it fracture? And if it fractures, will there be massive population movements to join "their" territory? If so, will it be bloody? And if the northern Islami-dominate region goes its own way, who on Earth will even try to control the jihadi impulses up there?

Russia sinks roots in their Syria bases. Why on Earth Russia thinks this is valuable to them is beyond me. Is it really buying influence? To what end? And in war with NATO, forces there would lead a short but exciting life against NATO naval forces that would be unlikely to leave the Mediterranean Sea anyway.

It was a strange "Trumptatorship" where the state funneled money to a "left-leaning" group that recycled the money back to Democratic election entities for the 2020 election. The Carter Center would condemn such election practices if taking place in a Third World country.

Spotting a stealth plane is just one step to locking on to them and shooting at them. Are military UFO sightings actually evidence we are working on that? Hmmm. Seems far more likely than actual aliens. Of course, if it is something else entirely, it's kind of fun to make the Chinese and Russians worry about this countermeasure, eh?

India needs more seapower to compete with China. Of course, India has the advantage of just having to deny the Indian Ocean to Chinese use. Which means aircraft and land-based missiles can be part of the mix. Although the Indians need to worry about Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles as much as the U.S. Navy. And the author is looking for India to become a broader maritime power, as well.

Killing drones with area effects. Now we're talking. If the Army can put a mobile version to cover the forward line of our troops, the scourge of small explosive drone swarms will prove to have been a fleeting threat. Indeed, our persistent recon and conventionally armed drones worked spectacularly great against terrorists. But was it a revolution in warfare or only a lucky coincidence because the enemy that existed when the technology matured lacked air defenses? I guess we'll see if the drone swarms can be adapted to air defenses focused on these low-altitude aerial vehicles. Also, not to flog a dead horse, but the war in Afghanistan is not ending because we are leaving the war as the article on our drone warfare states. We are only ending our ability to decisively influence whether our friends or our jihadi enemies win the war that continues.

I mentioned the Biden administration decision to withdraw air defense assets from Arab states. George Friedman speculates it is about reaching out to Iran. This makes sense from the Obama perspective. You may recall that Obama wanted to "balance" Iran and our allies on the theory that strengthening Iran compared to our friends would enable Iran to make a peace deal and become a responsible regional power. Once more into the moron breach, apparently.

Putin urges leaders to remember the lessons of World War II which caused such death and destruction when the Nazis invaded the USSR. Good idea. Maybe Putin shouldn't risk another such war by forging a friendship with a rising fascist power with territorial ambitions while alienating the West by attacking small European states in a futile effort to build a buffer zone.

The Marines, who are shifting to direct teaming with the Navy to hunt Chinese warships, have abandoned their previous floor of having enough Navy capability to lift two Marine Expeditionary Brigades for an amphibious assault.

The UN's only fighting force. But it is just whack-a-mole in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But as long as the Presidential Guard stays in its hole rather than coming out to support the former president, the death toll is kept at a dull roar that doesn't disturb us during our evening meal.

The British around-the-world debut cruise of their new carrier task force gets some combat experience in the Middle East.

Australia used Abrams main battle tanks in an amphibious exercise for the first time.

Large-scale combat operations against China cannot be sustained by America's sea lift capabilities.

The Biden administration has been good on the Navy's symbolic Taiwan Strait transits. Another one took place.

More information on the possible high-level Chinese defector to the United States. If true, at some point after getting the bulk of useful information out of Vice Minister of State Security Dong Jingwei in debriefings, I imagine we'd want to leak the information of the defection to see where the Chinese rats scurry out of fear of being outed by the defector. I assume. The signals path mapped out alone would be informative, no?

The Russians want to record our missile defense test at Hawaii. This Russian naval deployment is so unusual that I wonder if the Russians are under orders from their Chinese masters. I hope we either spoof the Russians or delay the test long enough to require the decrepit Russian ships the chance to record our Coast Guard rescue capabilities. Tip to Instapundit.

The European Union wants the power to tax. Of course it does. The suspense is killing me over how the EU will find a work-around to mere legal obstacles: "Any attempt seriously to impinge on national tax laws still requires unanimity among member states. This irks Euro-federalists." But there are now cracks in the wall keeping the EU away from that power. The EU will by hook or crook break the wall. The power to tax is the power to destroy. And the EU wants to destroy all opposition to removing the prefix from the proto-imperial EU project.

By their own rules this is hate. Tip to Instapundit.

Thankfully somebody is still trying to stop Iran's nuclear weapons technology drive: "Iranian authorities have thwarted what they called a 'sabotage attack' targeting a civilian nuclear facility near the country's capital, state TV reported Wednesday, as details about the incident remained scarce."

Biden handed this weapon to Putin: "How Vladimir Putin uses natural gas to exert Russian influence and punish his enemies[.]"

Yes, Rachel Maddow's show is not news. Now take the next step and admit it is Liberal Trump Porn.

Creating the Afghan air force was a success--and it at risk because NATO is bugging out prematurely. Strategery.

Dispatches from the "Imagine if Senator Sheldon Whitehouse Was a Republican" file. Every Republican senator and politician would be bombarded with media calls to denounce Whitehouse. And the media would have a Pit Bull's grip on the story. Luckily, Democratic Privilege kicks in. So we have the sound of crickets.

Army scientists are working on ways to guard against a really serious pandemic.

The AFRICOM commander is worried about his area of responsibility: "'I am concerned about the security situation across a band of Africa,' from the Sahel region in the west to the Horn of Africa, Townsend told reporters. He noted deadly attacks by al-Qaida- and Islamic State-linked jihadis and al-Shabab." Africa is an economy-of-force front, but I've expressed my worries about reducing assets too much to carry out its missions of keeping the continent quiet enough to focus on China and Russia. 

We should pull out Afghan translators now because of Vietnam? "In the chaotic, final hours of the Vietnam War, the U.S. evacuated thousands of South Vietnamese who supported the American mission and were at risk under the communist government." Oh? I hate to bring up history of the actual war, but American troops left in 1973 after signing a "peace" treaty. The final chaotic hours were the results of a North Vietnamese armor- and artillery-led offensive in 1975 that conquered South Vietnam after we cut off logistics and air support to South Vietnamese forces. Is the argument that Afghanistan is doomed now? We're not even going to wait a couple years to see what happens? We should just assume defeat now? If that's the case, maybe we shouldn't be leaving the Afghan forces on their own to fight murderous scum bastards who will not hesitate to come after us when they win. Maybe--hear me out, now--maybe we shouldn't risk defeat by pulling out completely and demoralizing our allies by pulling out the people who worked for us as we go. For fuck's sake people, are we this stupid?

Well, I've never trusted the ancient temperature proxies for the purpose they are now used for.

Sure, it's satire. But it is 100% accurate: "'You'll Never Beat The Government With Just Guns,' Says Party That Also Believes Government Was Almost Toppled By Unarmed Mob On January 6[.]" Nobody who entered the Capitol Building during the riot had a firearm, let alone nukes or 4th generation warplanes. 

I suspect this major federal policy change will be less about domestic terrorism and more about purging dissidents. I'll be pleasantly surprised if Islamists, BLM, and Antifa are part of the new focus. Remember, Democrats are the radicals and they have a lot more street muscle.

China says its Wuhan Flu lab deserves a Nobel Prize. Well, it took almost 12 years to tell Obama "Hold my beer", but it happened. In related news: "U.S. lawmakers are demanding an investigation into the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan, China, where athletes complained of COVID-like symptoms and described the city as a 'ghost town' weeks before authorities admitted the spread of a new virus." I remember the Chinese accusation that American troops introduced the virus to China. But I never read until now that two months before China announced it had a new virus on the loose that there was such an illness apparent. Why is this in the news only now??!!

The Egyptians want sub-Saharan allies in the diplomatic battle over Ethiopia's Nile River GERD dam. Egypt is unlikely to do any better invading Ethiopia now than in the late 19th century.

For the last 15 months or so the apparent failure of the Xi Jinping Flu to spread in Africa has seemed almost miraculous. Is that about to change for the worse the way India went from relief to horror show?

I don't believe mini-subs have ever worked out as the owners hoped. 

Democrats turn blue cities into violent Hell holes and their solution is to deny firearms to law-abiding citizens. I guarantee that if the government got rid of 99% of the civilian-owned firearms in the country that 99% of the remainder would be in the hands of criminals. And crime would be worse because of it. But hey, never let a crisis you caused go to waste, I guess.

I suspect the Delta variant of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic is media hype. If you are vaccinated you'll likely be fine, I suspect, even if the virus is more contagious. [sarcasm] All I know for sure is that because the variant is named after a Greek letter that the Goddamned Greeks are responsible and should be attacked on our streets wherever we find them. Which is very clever of India, where the variant was identified. [/sarcasm]

Well, we can certainly hope that the selection of a murderous mullah madman to lead Iran will provoke enough Iranians to resist the theocracy. And we can hope that Biden won't save the mullah regime from its own people as Obama did twice with his refusal to support the Green Revolution and the mullah-rewarding Iran Nuclear Deal.

Germany and France to European states that border Russia: Dude, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and destruction of a Dutch airliner were like 7 years ago. Get over it.

The Xi Jinping Flu is surging in Russia again.

The Chinese admit their vaccine against the Xi Jinping pandemic is not very effective. But we're to believe that China has decisively defeated the pandemic there?

If General Milley is just trying to understand potential enemies of the United States, he's on solid ground. But his understanding of racist BLM/CRT thinking doesn't seem like he is trying to know our enemy. I hope Milley is just as insistent that race education not turn into racist education that divides American troops. On that I'm not about to rush to his defense. Good grief, he seems to think the riot was an insurrection. That's nuts. And Milley's description of the Three-Fifths Comprise is just 180 degrees wrong. Although it is true Milley is obligated to obey the orders of his civilian superiors, I am worried about his leadership despite my generally good opinion of him up to now. Jesus, the fact that leftists in the media are praising Milley should be setting off alarm bells all throughout the Pentagon! Is his leadership creating a hostile work environment for potential white recruits? Is his leadership going to get minority recruits to believe that the military is not a meritocracy where they can rise to the limits of their capabilities? I mean, just how large is the recruiting pool of daughters of lesbian parents? (Mind you, I thank the young soldier for her service and thank the parents for raising someone who wanted to join. That's great.) Just who will join the military now? The woke? Please. And actually, that's the only continuing good news. This will not turn out well for America. Or for those who rely on our strength. Our enemies no doubt can't believe their good luck.

And yet the withdrawal continues as if nothing could possibly go wrong: "The U.S. intelligence community concluded last week that the government of Afghanistan could collapse as soon as six months after the American military withdrawal from the country is completed, according to officials with knowledge of the new assessment." Afghanistan is far from perfect. But it generates military power to kill jihadis rather than being a recruiting, training, and staging ground for terrorists who attack us. But we're going to walk away from that and hope for the best. Ah, strategery.

Jen Psaki isn't a very good liar. But she's persistent: "Jen Psaki on Wednesday tried to pretend it was actually Republicans, not Democrats, who attempted to defund the police, [which] was easy to call hogwash." Optimist that I am, at least some Democrats are willing to say it was a bad idea.

Russia is having a run of bad luck with the Xi Jinping Flu covid-19 virus. As I've said, judge countries when this is over--and with uniform definitions, of course.

A whole lot of jokes that end with the line "Is the Pope Catholic?" will need to be revised.

Biden's negotiating style with enemies is to offer concessions and wait for the other side to say "That's enough for us!" "An Iranian official said on Wednesday the United States plans to lift all sanctions on Iran’s oil and shipping industries and delist some members of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's inner circle as part of efforts to restore the landmark nuclear agreement." Did I call it, or what?

Pakistan remains supportive of Islamists yet is starting to think their support of the Taliban was a mistake--and awkwardly quiet on China's slow-motion genocide of its Uighurs. I wonder if the Islamist nutballs that Pakistan's government created 50 years ago will show their violent anger over the latter eventually? Riding the tiger is no fun.

 

It really does seem like Britney Spears is being held as a very pampered slave by her father.

Defense spending and what it buys.

I find it fascinating that Democrats blame white "science deniers" for not getting vaccinated against the Xi Jinping Flu at rates the Democrats think are necessary. And then Biden makes excuses for why people of color understandably don't want to get vaccinated. The implicit racism of Biden in denying minorities agency is astounding and revolting.

Democrats are trying to memory hole their responsibility for the spike in crime since last year.

Not enough to help the Afghan government defeat the jihadis but enough to provide the victims of a sizable jihadi massacre if the government loses: "Roughly 650 U.S. troops are expected to remain in Afghanistan to provide security for diplomats after the main American military force completes its withdrawal, which is set to be largely done in the next two weeks, U.S. officials told The Associated Press." 

And again, Twitter is leftist-garbage for other leftists to read. And for the media and corporations to pretend reflects the actual country. 

To help General Milley in his job, allow me to repeat this:

Iran showed how drones can evade air defenses to strike targets in Saudi Arabia. Somebody returned the favor: "[A drone] attack reportedly hit a facility linked to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The site being used for manufacturing nuclear centrifuges suffered major damage in the attack, the media reports on Wednesday suggest." Tip to Instapundit.

If Americans saw candidate Biden during the campaign the way we are seeing him now as president, not even the media's full-court press to prop up his image of lucidity would have gotten enough people to vote for him. Between what our enemies see of him and what is being in his name to our military's cohesion and morale, it will be a miracle if one or more enemies don't decide they have a window of opportunity to strike their highest priority target while we are hobbled. Or maybe just an easy target to test the waters. Maybe Biden and Congress should decide what we are doing in eastern Syria, eh? If not, we'll just drift along on autopilot until there is a crisis and body bags of Americans flying home.

China's willing hand puppet. If only CAP is the only one on the CCP's payroll.

We really need a group that believes Black lives matter and which will promote policies to ensure that.

Democracy Dies in Fluffing Democrats.

Oh yeah, complete mystery: "Scientists using computer modeling to study SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic, have discovered the virus is most ideally adapted to infect human cells—rather than bat or pangolin cells, again raising questions of its origin." Maybe one day we'll know the origin of the Xi Jinping Flu that arose in Wuhan, China; and how the virus is so adapted to infecting humans, which might be something the Wuhan Institute of Virology could handle. Fingers crossed!

Israeli drone defenses. Including an interceptor drone. Although most defenses are ground-based, which makes sense in a defensive network for Israel. The interceptor drone makes more sense for mobile troops in the field. Which is something I advocated in Army magazine. 

Wow. Big tech went all in to harm Republicans and help Democrats. Yet with Democrats in charge of the White House and Congress now, the move to break up big tech accelerates under Democrats. Big tech learns you can't buy politicians--just rent them.

An odd thing about this whole Xi Jinping Flu pandemic struck me. It seems highly likely that the Covid-19 virus was engineered in a Chinese lab and then accidentally escaped. That which was once verboten to say is now okey dokey. But the Chinese vaccine seems to be the most ineffective vaccine out there. So is it really true that the Chinese quickly smothered this virus inside China? How is that possible when the Chinese vaccine is so poor? Will we find out that Chinese casualties are much higher than the Chinese Communist Party admits? And if we find that out, will death rates in the upper reaches of the Chinese Communist Party reflect the wider death rate? And if not, did the CCP elites rely on the Chinese vaccine for protection? Or did they get their hands on Western vaccines somehow? Or make better vaccines for their elites? I only speculate on the trail of speculations because the CCP has a major problem of taking care of a rapidly aging population without the systems to support them. The government doesn't have a safety net and the government destroyed extended family safety nets with a one-child policy. And given the treatment of the Uighurs especially, is it out of bounds to wonder if the CCP wants to kill off even Han Chinese when they are an obstacle to CCP supremacy? Will we ever know what happened inside China? Again, this is sheer speculation based on motive and history. I'm almost certainly wrong. But I wouldn't be shocked to find I'm closer to being right than wrong.

Sure, but the problem is the Plan B in place, which even Democrats seem to be shying away from. Tip to Instapundit.

They welcome their new CCP CEO overlords.

The idea of a National Guard quick reaction force is a bad idea. I think it is a bad idea and is just Democrats trying to stage Insurrection Theater. And the very idea of a Guard QRF to protect Congress undermines the Democratic belief that the military is a hotbed of white supremacists. The riot was bad and those who entered the Capitol Building should be appropriately punished. And the police force that Congress controls should not be caught flat-footed the way it was that day. But let's not pretend that January 6th was an insurrection.

Yes: "China is bulking up its fleet of amphibious vessels as it embarks on a major naval modernization program to enhance its ability to conduct operations globally." But operating "globally" is the key. This building program is a red herring in regard to invading the main island of Taiwan, which doesn't rely on this amphibious warfare capability. Remember, even America has the ability to lift just two Marine brigades at once, a tiny spearhead to take an entire defended island. China isn't even at our level yet.

"White rage" is just a stupid framing. I'm so old that I remember when leftists reacted to the September 11, 2001 terror attacks with earnest questions of "why do they hate us?" as if America deserved the hatred and we have to change rather than the terrorists.

Show of Iranian force in Iraq? Or a show of weakness?

The situation in Afghanistan is worse than our leadership is describing it, to justify the premature exit. My view is that while on paper the Taliban should be unable to take over the government, in the short term there is a chance of government panic and collapse as America and NATO leave. Maybe you could say that talking up the Afghan government's position is part of getting through this danger zone. Which is not illegitimate in my opinion. It all depends on what the Afghan government believes, I guess. I'm so old I remember when this was the "good" and "necessary" war.

Hard to dispute this summary, satire though it may be:

The summit with Putin and decisions around it were a gift from Biden to a threat to our security. Reset 2.0, anyone?

Again, this would me a media feeding frenzy if a Republican senator was involved. Having a (D) after your name is pretty much a license to kill, as Ted Kennedy demonstrated, and as many more Ds have shown since then. But gosh, why is our media so mistrusted? Another mystery destined to never be solved, I guess.

This is horrifying: "Suspected suicide attempts in girls increased 50.6 percent, compared to a 3.7 percent increase in young men." The Xi Jinping Flu pandemic was serious. But the reaction to it was, too. I think an honest review of the full costs and benefits of our reaction to the pandemic will conclude we overreacted with broad restrictions on people.

Is state collapse rather than government collapse really the worst outcome in North Korea? I posted on the difference more than 13 years ago. I think state collapse is not worse than a nuclear-armed North Korea. And if civil war is possible, maybe a partition of North Korea is the best option. But can we predict a collapse of either type? I know I've given up looking for signs of imminent collapse.

I don't like the framing of our Afghanistan withdrawal as "Afghans are going to have to decide their future" as Biden stated. A generation ago "the Afghan people" decided to tolerate a Taliban government which hosted al Qaeda, the Islamist terror group that killed nearly 3,000 of us at home on September 11, 2001. But now? Whatever. Kill us or don't. We don't care.

Funny:

Which raises the issue of why Marxism is the only dead white male that woke leftists want to follow?

LOL!

When jihadis are around, there is precious little peace to keep: "The United Nations said 12 German troops and a Belgian soldier serving in the U.N. peacekeeping mission in Mali were wounded Friday in an attack in the country's restive north."

As if jihadis in the north aren't a big enough problem: "The U.N. World Food Program says southern Madagascar is in the throes of back-to-back droughts that are pushing 400,000 people toward starvation, and have already caused deaths from severe hunger."

Communist (but really fascist now) China continues to display its determination to crush free and democratic Taiwan: "Any Taiwanese move toward independence would also spell 'war' for the island nation, Beijing said." Why would Taiwan resist China when it sees how well Peking treats Tibetans, Uighurs, Hong Kongers, or even all of its Han subjects under the Social Credit system of surveillance and control? It is not an "inevitability" that China will control Taiwan. If such a thing is true, how do any small or weak states survive next to larger ones? Yet that is true all over the world. And true around China, where North Korea exists. As does Mongolia. And Kyrgyzstan. And Tajikistan. And Nepal. And Bhutan. Vietnam is putting up a successful fight so far. At least Taiwan has a nice 100-mile wide anti-tank ditch to help out.

Did Colombian communist insurgents, drug gangs, or Maduro's forces shoot at the Colombian president's helicopter? 

That's effing insane: "More than 15 months into the coronavirus pandemic, tens of thousands of seafarers vital to the global shipping industry remain stranded at sea or in ports, unable to leave their ships or get to new assignments due to global travel restrictions." Criminals in America aren't even being arrested and charged. But sailors doing vital work are still serving time after 15 months? This is effed up.

Alert General Milley to update his reading list. Tip to Instapundit. 

The Biden administration says that inflation is a fleeting symptom of restarting the economies around the world and that inflation-driving shortages will eventually ease and restore low inflation. I want to believe that. But the administration says a lot of things that just aren't so. Which means I worry about inflation.

I suspect the media hyping of the Delta (Indian) variant of the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 virus (which began in Wuhan, a city in communist China) is part of media virus panic porn to sustain their post-Trump ratings and to bolster Democratic calls to spend more money we don't have. Not that I think the variant is nothing--this engineered virus is more of a problem than a wild one would be--but I think the progress in vaccines, treatments, and the lack of more vulnerable victims to fuel surges in deaths will make this variant a blip rather than a reason to retreat to lockdowns and panic.

Bolstering the Black Sea flank of NATO.

Is this a sign that Russia is getting a firmer grip on Belarus? "The embattled Belarusian dictator has made good on his threat to flood the European Union with migrants by sending hundreds of Iraqis on ‘package holidays’ to neighbouring Lithuania in retaliation for sanctions." I only ask because Russia did this on a far larger scale to pressure Europe.

Why the Palestinian leadership periodically try to kill Jews with rockets or whatever is at hand: "Angry demonstrators clashed with Palestinian security forces for a third day Saturday during a protest in the West Bank over the death of an outspoken critic of the Palestinian Authority who died while in custody." Can't have Palestinians getting angry with the corrupt rulers who actually wreck their lives on a daily basis, now can they?

Well, yes: "A new report published by the Air Force Research Laboratory suggests the U.S. Space Force has to prepare for a day when the moon and the volume of space around it could become the next military frontier." Who knows what challenges we'll face in this region, eh?

I've long said a force like Space Force has the Earth-Moon system as its area of responsibility. Beyond that we need a real space navy.

If carbon reduction pays off, what the heck. Tip to Instapundit.

That's gotta add to the carbon footprint of this green technology, no?

The struggle for Central America resumes.

Guilty: "An American research scientist reported on Tuesday that Chinese researchers deleted genetic sequencing data for COVID-19 samples from a U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) database. The deletions highlight the extent of China’s efforts to stymie research into the beginnings of the COVID-19 pandemic." It's not that I'm furious with virus research. I'm sure everyone does that. I'm not even furious with the lab leak. Stuff happens. Although the lax security procedures get it close. What really angers me is that the Chinese Communist Party lied about the virus and took steps that made it possible for a local epidemic to become a pandemic. If the world doesn't decouple from Chinese manufacturing, we're all just too stupid to win. What more do we need to see if the rest of the CCP horror show of genocide, oppression and aggression isn't enough? These people are evil. Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats define "bipartisan" as screwing you for being dumb enough to trust Democrats.

Please notify the Biden administration: "The two attacks on Natanz were very damaging to Iranian claims that they do not have a nuclear weapons program. In the aftermath of both attacks it became clear that Iran was using powerful new centrifuge designs to create nuclear material that was far more refined (above 20 percent) than needed for a nuclear power plant. Iran needs a lot of nuclear material refined to 90 percent to make nuclear weapons. The data Mossad made public in 2018 and the aftermath of the 2021 attack demonstrate that Iran is still seeking nuclear weapons." The 2015 Iran nuclear deal did not end Iran's drive for nuclear weapons and a new one will fail, too.

Biden spoke of our Xi Jinping Flu death toll: "That’s more than every life lost in World War I, World War II, the Vietnam War, Iraq, Iran, across the board — Afghanistan. More lives lost in a year than every major war in the 20th century and the 21st century." I guess Democrats spent so much effort claiming Bush 43 was plotting to go to war with Iran that Biden internalized that accusation and made it history. This is fine.

To be fair, how can Westerners and Moslem-majority countries excuse their inaction on China's multi-generational genocide of Uighurs unless platforms like YouTube censor the evidence of the crime?

Well, I read Marx and Soviet practitioners--but I did so because I wanted America to defeat the evil bastards. I'm not going to try to read General Milley's mind. But what he said is disturbing enough without trying to go that route.

So Lebanon is on the brink of really bad things: "Sporadic protests were reported throughout Lebanon on Saturday as the country’s 20-month economic crisis worsened. The World Bank described the crisis as one of the worst the world has witnessed in 150 years. It is coupled with a political deadlock that has left Lebanon without a government since August."

Military exercises that will worry China: "India and the US on Wednesday kicked off a two-day multi-domain wargame in the Indian Ocean involving an array of air defence platforms to further consolidate their operational synergy in the face of China's increasing military presence in the region." As China continues to gnaw away at India's northern border, the sea front is where India has the advantage. If India can deny the Indian Ocean to China during a war, our Fifth Fleet is free to head to the Pacific to take on the Chinese.

German police may never figure out the true motive of this mysterious killing spree, eh? Although I admit that it is fair to wonder if mental illness is the cause. Still, there is danger that for the left it becomes standard practice to conclude that if a Moslem man (but not other classes of people) kills people he must be mentally deranged. Because what else could explain that crazy act? Case closed.  

The spectator who caused a massive accident at the Tour de France is an oblivious moron. But the race director's comment is just as moronic: "'You come here to see heroes,' he told French media. 'If you want to see yourself look in the mirror.'" Heroes? Cyclists are heroes? Maybe save some of that honor for the French troops fighting jihadis across the Sahel with little glory to their names. Tip to Instapundit.

So there's this: "Everyone in North Korea is heartbroken over leader Kim Jong Un's apparent weight loss, said an unidentified resident of Pyongyang quoted on the country's tightly controlled state media, after watching recent video footage of Kim." Of course North Koreans are heartbroken. Actually they are probably terrified. If Kim Jong Un has lost weight, what the Hell is going to happen to them?!

Twenty-one new good al-Shabab jihadis.

Too soon?

On the bright side for Afghanistan, "Pakistan’s foreign minister said Sunday that violence and lawlessness could [rein] in Afghanistan after the United States' withdrawal, and that Pakistan would shut its border to the country if the Taliban takes control of it." The good news is that Pakistan is no longer a backer of the Taliban as Pakistan was before 9/11 and for a long time since then.

Stop listening to social media as if it is an ongoing public opinion polling process: "A new report from the Center for Countering Digital Hate and Anti-Vax Watch found that up to 65 percent of “anti-vaccine content” on Facebook and Twitter originated from twelve influencers within the anti-vaxxer movement." Fascinating. And horrifying. 

From the legislator who said we have only twelve years to save the planet, a crime wave is a minor matter: "Far-left Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) doubled down on her support for defunding the police during a video event this week, and claimed that concern over exploding crime rates across the U.S. are 'hysteria.'"

So another entire group of humans wiped out in China? Totally believable. 

Well, as I understand it, supercavitating torpedoes are not much of a threat. And if Russia and Iran are boasting about them, they are likely propaganda-only press releases.

I have simply stopped caring about what Portland is doing to itself. Let the city collapse and die under Antifa assault. That appears to be the will of the majority of the citizens there.

Iran won't send nuclear facility images that Iran takes to the IAEA as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal provided. As if that was an obstacle to Iran's nuclear weapons project.

I've been watching Warehouse 13. I haven't seen that in ages (since it was on originally?). By chance I noticed it was about to expire on the streaming service in a week! luckily I was close enough to the end to make an actual binge push rather than just give up. I'm pretty close to finishing it now.

American forces struck pro-Iran militia forces in the Iraq-Syria border region.

The United States approved potential sales of small numbers of F-16s, air-to-air missiles, and anti-ship missiles to the Philippines.

The Constitution most certainly did allow privately owned cannons. See Congressional letters of marque and reprisal. I don't care what Corn Pop says on the subject.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I hear you're looking for some unregulated memes.