Blast From the Past

It seems like the Son of Netfires is making its debut.

The Army could get robotic HIMARS launchers based on a modified JLTV chassis with a hybrid-electric propulsion:

This year marks the first public demonstration of ROGUE-Fires, which can fire the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) Family of Munitions (MFOM) – the same munitions that the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) can fire.

The hybrid platform is flexible enough to support a variety of mission-critical payloads, including long-range precision fires, autonomous resupply, and logistics functions, all aimed at boosting operational effectiveness in challenging environments.

This sounds like a reboot of Netfires, and improves on my suggestion in Military Review over two decades ago for the Army to drop off static networked missile-firing modules in the wake of advancing troops for fire support. 

My assumption was that there would be a lag in leapfrogging artillery units forward. And also that there would be rapid advances. In the short run, the marriage of near-persistent battlefield surveillance with prompt precision fires will hinder the latter assumption.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: Picture of ROGUE-Fires by Oshkosh Defense.

Breaking the FPV Kill Chain at the Source

Given the time it takes a First-Person View (FPV) suicide drone operator to get good, extending the counter-drone kill chain to the drone operators should be priority. Protecting individual vehicles from suicide drones should be last-ditch defense.

Strategypage notes how FPV drone operators work in a sanctuary: 

Very few drone operators have been lost in the Ukraine War. That’s because the operators have a safe space to operate uninterrupted. There is usually an operations team consisting of one or more operators as well as support staff to keep track of the local combat situation and find targets. ...

On quiet parts of the front drone teams spend most of their time doing surveillance, with the occasional call for an attack drone. When new operators gain enough experience in their quiet zones, they are sent to more active areas to do their thing.

Attacking enemy aircraft on the ground and counter-battery fire against enemy artillery are priorities. Units advancing may use firepower to suppress potential enemy direct or indirect fire positions. Heck, attacking enemy factories push breaking the kill chain all the way to production.

Battlefield kill chains extend from the target all the way back to the launch and/or control point. I'd like to see more effort to disrupt the start of the kill chain. Especially given that right now the FPV drones require skilled operators to fly them, put the target in the crosshairs, and attack. No matter how cheap the drones are, without active control they are a nuisance-level threat. Both precision and area fires seem like options to target the source.

Even when suicide drones become fire and forget, the entire team that keeps the drones flying is still a weak point to attack.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Continues the Beatings So Morale Will Improve

Putin floated the idea of sending a problematic general to die at the front to send a message to other generals. Is Putin sure what message he sent? Trump is sending messages to Ukraine and Russia. Do they hear peace bells, opportunity, or despair?

The war goes on. Will there or won't there be a general Russian offensive on some portion of the front with Russia's depleted ground forces that don't seem to use many armored combat vehicles. Are they gone? Reserved for defense? Or being accumulated for a bigger push?

American put open pressure on Ukraine. I'm not happy with the optics:

President Donald Trump slammed Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Wednesday for his comments that Ukraine wouldn’t recognize Russian control of Crimea, calling the remarks “very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia.”

“It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country,” he posted on Truth Social.

I certainly hope this is for the purpose of enticing the Russians to end their invasion and give up territory. But I can't say Trump is wrong on the specific facts. It would be great it Ukraine could launch a decisive counteroffensive. But I believe Ukraine lost the opportunity in the autumn and winter of 2022-2023 when Russia was at its weakest. Perhaps Ukraine simply didn't have the means. But it may be that Ukraine waited too long to get more capabilities, forgetting that Russia would use the time, too. Russia used their time more effectively to mobilize replacements and build fortifications.

I doubt Ukraine is going to be able to take Crimea back short of a Russian army collapse. Ukrainians are tired of casualties. And if this gets Russia to surrender southern Ukraine taken since February 2022, it's a good deal for Ukraine. Especially if Ukraine sells Crimea to Russia. But I worry that Ukrainians will get discouraged and lose their morale. 

Still, I know that personnel in action are far more focused on the job at hand than in discussions in far off Kyiv or Washington, D.C. I experienced a bit of that during the communist coup attempt in August 1991. I was aware of the start of the coup on the eve of a FTX for my unit's new signal equipment. Despite my education and interests, I spent 80 of the next 96 hours awake in my Humvee focused on getting the combat fax machine to work. I didn't have time to look outside my straw's field of vision for the potentially earth-shaking repercussions of civil war inside the USSR. Luckily, the coup failed be the time the exercise ended. So I do expect the front line troops to remain focused on fighting and surviving. But my worry remains that defeatism could eventually seep in to the front even if if develops in rear areas first.

On the other side of No-Man's Land, this means of coping with potential disloyalty in the Russian military high command is interesting:

Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned former 58th Combined Arms Army [CAA] Commander Major General Ivan Popov to command a penal assault detachment in Ukraine — a demotion and effectively a death sentence — after Popov publicly appealed to Putin for his reinstatement to active military duty. ...

The Kremlin relieved Popov of command of the 58th CAA in July 2023 because of his perceived disloyalty and criticisms of the Russian military high command — especially in the aftermath of the Wagner Group rebellion in June 2023. 

He was a popular general. Even more threatening to Putin, I suppose. 

This sends a message to the generals. As Putin intends. But what is the message?

Is the message "don't you dare think about resisting Putin." Maybe. But if the generals worry that other lesser offenses might result in the same punishment, perhaps the message generals hear is "if you strike a king, kill him." 

Yet Putin wavered on the wording:

The Kremlin may be conflicted about how to punish Popov for weaponizing the information space in July 2023 when he attempted to reverse his removal from command. The Kremlin likely fears that allowing Popov to return to the battlefield at his request would set a precedent in which popular commanders and officials could threaten to blackmail the Kremlin into accepting their demands.

Popov's supporters aren't clamoring for a battlefield death sentence. Ultimately, the punishment decided on was five years in a low-security prison colony.

One wonders if the plane Popov boards to that prison colony will malfunction and crash.

For either message, one thing the generals may hear is that they must not dare be popular with their troops or the military blogging community. Maybe one result of the message is that commanders will be extremely cruel to their troops, with subordinates getting the message to drive the men like mere bits of the Russian military machine. 

The cogs might not like that. Certainly, the cogs aren't eager:

In Ukraine there are fewer and fewer Russian troops. These soldiers are sometimes changing into civilian clothes and walking away. They can’t catch a train or use an army truck because the Russian railroad system is collapsing and there are few operational Russian vehicles, especially trucks in Ukraine. Supplies aren’t getting in because most Russian trucks leaving Ukraine don’t return. There is no fuel because Ukrainian HIMARS missiles are destroying Russian supply depots.

Strategypage thinks the Russian ground forces will collapse in the next six month. I'm not as sure, but think it is possible. I see the trends the same as Strategypage, but haven't been as confident about predictions. Ukraine's cogs might decide they will defend but not attack. 

Although I have raised the issue of Putin creating a Potemkin Horde inside Ukraine. So maybe Putin's cogs really will refuse to fight this year. Or maybe the cogs can't imagine being anything but replaceable cogs. Or maybe the cogs will head back to civilian life after a general ceasefire.

Still, a Russian general could get the message that appearing loyal and biding his time until he can kill the king is his best hope of surviving between Putin and the cogs. Having cogs still under his command might be an advantage when he strikes to kill. 

And we'll see if Trump's frustration with Putin stringing him along by attacking Ukraine, expressing broad support for a ceasefire, yet refusing to agree to specific peace terms will ultimately bite Putin if his duplicity leads America to end pressure on Ukraine and decide to no longer be Mister Nice Guy to Putin.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia and Belarus are preparing for their 2025 Zapad large-scale exercise on Poland's border. Watch that the Russians don't transition right into a renewed offensive against Kyiv. 

UPDATE (Thursday): This is big: While Russia demands Ukraine submit to all Russian demands and only pretends to want to talk, America and Ukraine sign a minerals deal that commits America to a free Ukraine. 

UPDATE (Friday): The U.S. will sell weapons to Ukraine. I said (in a Wednesday update to this post) there would be a way.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: The First Precision Bombs Wreaked Havoc Early in World War II.

In case you missed it on Substack: Whither Super Carriers?

In case you missed it on Substack: China Can Lay More Keels. But Can They Launch Them?

In case you missed it on Substack: Victory ... From the Sea.

Huh: "Iran, China and Turkey have built aircraft carriers for drones that may herald a new era of naval combat." That's the question, eh? They may just be escort carriers (CVE) with better marketing.

Where sh*t might get real. 

Are Army ground combat vehicles on the chopping block?

New rotations for two Army armored brigades to Europe and an aviation brigade to the Middle East were announced. 

Raw defense spending isn't the entire story. 

Rankings of military power; and then a long digression about how Russians are bastards.

Describing the emerging "latticework" versus America-dominated "hub and spoke" defense network in the western Pacific, which I discussed here. America still connects the sub-alliances.

Could China conduct a cyber-Pearl Harbor that shuts down critical American infrastructure to cripple the American military response long enough for China to achieve its war objective? Beats me. Sounds scary. So far Russia has done far more damage to Ukraine with old-fashioned exploding weapons.

The Navy may want more than twelve new Columbia-class SSBNs for our sea-based nuclear deterrent. Given that only four are likely to be on station at any one time, more seems prudent. I've also wondered it we might produce four more to replace our aging SSGNs.

Can the basic M-1 platform evolve to be an effective tank into the 2050s? 

Making Russia great again! "[An] extremely low standard of living in Russia’s notoriously impoverished regions, including the Far East. The situation is even worse in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine[.]"

Could Canada join the EU? Why wouldn't a fully imperial EU want to expand? And if Canadians continue undermining rule of law and individual liberty, they will fit right in. 

Sh*t got real: "Beijing has threatened to punish countries that 'appease' Donald Trump in trade deals while hurting China’s interests."

I can never make up my mind about whether China lukewarmly backs Russia in its invasion of Ukraine to spark a U.S.-Russia war or to drive Russia into chaos to invade its Pacific Far East. 

Is Egypt hosting Chinese fighters in an exercise to get China's help to stop Houthi attacks interfering with Egypt's Suez Canal revenue? Would that involve buying Chinese planes? But if this fails, does Egypt go to Plan B?

The Air Force proposes Oregon as a site for over-the-horizon radars to detect incoming missiles. 

The Navy wants more storage space in the Philippines.

More on North American air defense initiatives. 

It really isn't an expansion of military authority to arrest. It's a new location where existing authority can be used along the border with Mexico. Border security doesn't need "comprehensive" immigration reform.

Ukraine wants a lot of robots to make up for manpower shortages. But these small robots are suited to static warfare, really. World War I tanks had to be long to cross trenches. Better models and a lot more integration are needed to restore maneuver.

America must pivot to the Arctic! There's always a "bigger" threat than the current one that we should really be addressing.

Even 18 months after Hamas launched its rape and murder invasion of Israel, most Moslem countries decline the invitation to join the jihad against Israel. The Arab "street" just doesn't care much about the Palestinians. Be the strong horse.

Turkey turning against Israel is nothing new. If Trump is refusing to address this problem, you have to recall Obama welcomed the "tame" Islamist Erdogan. And ignore Trump denied Erdogan the F-35 for his sins.

African and Latin American governments are learning that China's investment smile hides sharp teeth. 

Unless "Europe" wants another faux crisis to exploit, Europe should welcome a working Golden Dome in America: "An American missile defense makes the United States’ 'extended' nuclear deterrent more credible."

New Patriot missile LTAMDS radar goes into low-rate initial production. 

The Army and foreign users like the massively updated Apache attack helicopter. Huh.

But can Israel and those clans actually leverage increased public anger at Hamas? "Currently Israel and the Palestinian clans agree that Hamas is a threat to everyone and must be destroyed." 

There is no Russian empire in Africa rising. What you have is Russia stirring trouble in countries always one bad event away from chaos. Add in lack of Western interest to do much about it. Voila, "empire."

I think it is grossly wrong to claim that Trump is seeking to carve up the world with Russia and China for spheres of interest. But if I'm wrong and he does try to achieve spheres of influence, that effort will fail to protect American interests.

Trump ordered additional forces to the Middle East to seriously strike the Houthi. And informed Congress of his actions, declaring his letter "consistent with" the War Powers Resolution. No president admits he is subject to that probably unconstitutional act. 

As long as military leaders in the field are following the commander's intent, I want them to take action without waiting for permission from the White House. Just defend them if they make an honest mistake.

Can Lockheed Martin salvage 6th-generation technology from their losing bid for the next fighter by applying it to the F-22 and F-35? I own a small amount of its stock.

Morocco is hosting AFRICOM's largest military exercise, featuring Israel's participation and Algeria's withdrawal from it. 

Greece wants a comprehensive Achilles Shield air defense network to free its warships and fighter planes committed to air defense for other operations.

The Pentagon wants cargo spaceships? It's insane. And the insanity has backers who think bigger.

The Phantom Fleet command ship makes a port call in Libya--a first in half a century. 

Replacing radios with smart phone capabilities on a battlefield Internet for even individual soldiers.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent America a FLASH OVERRIDE warning. Finally, the Army gets a new 155mm shell production facility. 

NATO draws a line under the Baltic Sea.

Russia is scraping the bottom of the manpower barrel. Also: "About 40 percent of Russian casualties died compared to only 20 percent of Ukrainian casualties because the Russians in this war often get no battlefield medical treatment whatsoever." Or Putin could draft Moscow and St. Petersburg men. LOL.

CRS report to Congress on Yemen and the Red Sea fight. 

Canada's election campaign still essentially assumes America will defend Canada. 

Europe should not try to solve its defense worries by trying to replace the long-developed NATO role in securing Europe. Amen to that.

Allah works in mysterious predictable ways: "Multiple casualties are feared after assailants indiscriminately fired at tourists visiting a beauty spot in Indian-controlled Kashmir on Tuesday, officials said." Via PJ Media.

Germany, France, and the UK demand access to Gaza in order to return Israeli hostages to their families. Just kidding! They actually demanded access to provide Hamas with logistics support humanitarian aid. 

America will get B-21 stealth bombers. I assume most won't be for the nuclear mission. On that, in the age of missiles I sometimes wonder if the only nukes we are reasonably confident will detonate are gravity bombs or those on slower cruise missiles. Just thinking out loud, here.

Can Trump's art of the deal get a good nuke deal? My old post on that original diplomatic disaster telegraphed the new talks, eh? We couldn't be that stupid again, could we?

China can't afford a long disruption of their exports. Fingers crossed.

Sh*t got real: India's initial response to the Pakistani-backed terrorist attack was to stop Indus River water from entering Pakistan and expel Pakistani nationals. These are both nuclear-armed states. After the Mumbai terror attack, I worried about war, too. But the jihadis' real target was actually Pakistan.

The Philippines is getting the second of three Brahmos high-speed anti-ship missile batteries purchased from India. Enjoy sailing close to the Philippines while you can.

Trump is finally pushing Europe to take charge of its defense? Please, it's the latest excuse to give the EU more power. 

A call for the US to take the lead in protecting underwater cables in the Middle East that the U.S. military relies on.

Britain has gotten the first prototypes of the Challenger 3 tank. Don't get too excited. Britain plans to build 148 of them. 

The U.S. is applying more pressure to Iran's oil smuggling network.

Is it really a shock that Reaper drones are easy to shoot down? Is it a mystery that the Houthi are getting missiles capable of shooting them down? 

France practiced deploying nuclear-capable Rafale fighters to Sweden. Medvedev was unavailable for comment.

Revolutionizing night vision?

Australia has its first enlisted personnel trained on crewing a SSN.

No justice, no peace: "A Salafi-jihadi group ideologically close to the Islamic State (IS) is conducting extrajudicial killings against Syrians perceived to be tied to the now-deposed Bashar al Assad regime." Jihadi victory was not the end to the Syria multi-war.

American F-16s exercised in the Philippines.

Jihadis kill 54 soldiers to punish Benin for overthrowing Saddam. Oh, wait. That was always a BS explanation for why jihadis hate us.

U.S. frustration with Canada centers on Canada's willful ... usefulness ... to China. It is more than just stinking militarily on ice.

Building Ukraine's air defenses. 

Russia's struggle to maintain its artillery advantage.

Ending business-as-usual in the Pentagon.  

I don't like early descriptions of Trump's plan for "peace" that recognize almost all Russian conquests. Assuming the reports are accurate, it is just a period for Putin to reload. Unless this is part of a Big Flip, good grief. 

Jordan faces threats from the Islamic Brotherhood and even the PA thinks Hamas has gone too far.

Xi Jinping doesn't seem like he is in full control of his CCP Game of Thrones. Is Xi blocking aggressive subordinates or are subordinates restraining Xi's aggressive objectives?

Building a "reassurance" force of European troops in Ukraine. Good luck with reassuring Ukraine with a too-small force, too far back, and too constrained in rules of engagement. I imagine America would provide a "backstop" with key capabilities based on NATO territory. 

Breathe, people. You're embarrassing yourselves.

U.S. says Iran must give up enrichment capability in any nuclear deal.

The U.S. is offering a big arms deal for Saudi Arabia, in bid to blunt China's influence--as the Saudis no doubt intended. Any yeah, the Saudis don't need F-35s to fight Iran. 

Given that Russia should not have invaded and taken any Ukrainian territory, Trump is wrong to say Russia gives a concession by not taking all of Ukraine. I still think selling Crimea could be an option. Otherwise, recognize no losses of territory.

This is not shocking. Another reason reserve combat units should be a strategic reserve (in Army magazine) rather than an operational reserve, which I've long opposed. 

From the "Well, Duh" files: "There are several areas where greater alignment between U.S. and NATO maritime forces could enhance warfighting readiness and crisis response." No less true, of course.

The Marines are working on autonomous USVs for logistics. Not exactly a vote of confidence in the Navy's ability to sustain Marine anti-ship outposts. 

Still, add contested deployment and logistics: "Despite the passage of twenty-five years, the scope of the Desert Shield deployment offers lessons for today’s Army in the event of large-scale combat operations across its components[.]"

Iraq is responding to American pressure to reduce reliance on Iranian energy imports: "Iraq’s strategy seeks energy independence while navigating U.S.-Iran tensions, sanctions risks, and internal corruption."

I've long said Hamas could surrender to save the Gaza civilians Hamas hides behind. Gazans, reflecting broader rejection by the Arab Street, are increasingly protesting Hamas. Hopefully this is a joint Israel-Gaza clan effort.

Could China exploit this to invade? "Taiwan is facing growing political discord and uncertainty amid high-profile quarrels between the two most prominent political parties." Or would Taiwanese unite to fight the foreign threat? 

The Baltic States cut off their reliance on Russian electricity to prepare to fight a Russian invasion. Good. Now convert their railroad gauges from the Russian type to the Western type.

The drone counter-measures race that Ukraine so far dominates--including fighter drones. As the prophecy foretold. 

Building Constellation. But it has problems. And at 7,300 tons it is really a Burke Lite--and Burke is a capital ship!--rather than a true frigate to provide fleet numbers.

The European Union is concerned about Russian "hybrid" warfare. I'm calling BS on that. Oh, Russia is definitely attacking Europeans. But the EU only wants to exploit that problem to gain more power. 

Teen in France who admires Hitler kills a student in school. Is this mental illness or hate from the right? Ddoes the lack of details on the killer mean this is an Islamist killer? I wish I could fully trust the news.

Keep Out: "The planned construction of the defence line along the eastern border Latvia shares with Russia and Belarus, set for completion by 2028, is progressing well[.]" 

Huh: "Unknown actors assassinated the deputy head of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate, Lieutenant General Yaroslav Moskalik, in Balashikha, Moscow Oblast, on April 25."

Former Secretary of State Kerry got upset when it was pointed out Russia took Crimea on his watch. It's so much worse than that description.

The instant air base kit.

Ukraine's Shaman commando force.

Russia won't join the West to face China while Putin is in power. Would Russian defeat in Ukraine enable that flip? 

It is interesting to note this assessment regarding Red Sea operations that "the emergence of the European Union (EU) as a security actor in the maritime domain has weakened the U.S. grip on NATO’s naval strategy." Weakening that grip in general is the purpose of EU moves to be a security actor.

A missile-armed autonomous USV. The US company has essentially made a tiny LCS. Hopefully one that works.

Three American Ticonderoga-class cruisers are being extensively updated to extend their service lives by a decade with the Cruiser Phased Modernization Plan. 

Russia claims it has ejected Ukrainian troops from Kursk province. Ukraine denies this but it is essentially accurate. And Russia has decided that massed motorcycle use is the key to coping with FPV drones.

China claims it has "implemented maritime control" over Tiexian Reef, implying that naval forces of some sort now interdict Philippine access to their South China Sea territory there. 

Hmmm: "A massive explosion and fire rocked a port Saturday in southern Iran purportedly linked to a shipment of a chemical ingredient used to make missile propellant, killing 25 people and injuring around 800 others."

Huh: "The secretive Russian satellite in space that U.S. officials believe is connected to a nuclear anti-satellite weapon program has appeared to be spinning uncontrollably[.]" 

That's the risk of actually using your newest weapon in a small conflict. Could we bomb the intact StormBreaker? Or is it a fake, less-capable weapon intended to deceive enemies? Dunno.

Please Increase Your Pucker Factor Accordingly

Long-simmering tensions spike on the subcontinent. Please increase your Pucker Factor accordingly.

Tensions rising between India and Pakistan after the Pakistani-backed terror attack inside India's territory: 

The long-simmering tensions between the two neighbors have boiled over in the wake of Tuesday’s deadly attack on tourists in the disputed Kashmir region. Since then, both sides have taken diplomatic and military measures that further escalate the situation and some observers believe it could erupt into an armed conflict.

India and Pakistan cancelled visas for their nationals to each other’s countries on Thursday, and Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft. In addition, Pakistan “has issued a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen/Mariners) for the Arabian Sea and initiated a naval live fire exercise, while putting its military on full alert in anticipation of a possible military response by India in the wake of the Pahalgam terror attack,” The Print, an Indian news outlet, reported.

India's aircraft carrier hovers nearby in the Arabian Sea.

Does this mean war? Since China is India's main threat and Pakistan knows it is weaker, probably not. China surely doesn't want its new friend to risk a pearl in its string of pearls to the Middle East by going to war. India would no doubt increase its defense spending after such a war--which could be used against China, too.

Strategypage has background information.

But India must retaliate. And things can escalate despite intent. Well, Indian and Pakistani intent could be to limit fighting. The jihadis could have very different intent. After the Mumbai terror attack, I worried about war, too. But the jihadis' real target was actually Pakistan:

Strategypage notes just what the jihadis who committed mass murder that day wanted. Say what you will about them, but they don't lack for ambition:

The captured terrorist eventually spoke freely, about who organized the attack and what it's objective was (to trigger a war between India and Pakistan, which would enable Islamic radicals to take over Pakistan and form a religious dictatorship.) Ultimately, LET wants to destroy Hinduism, something Moslems have been trying to do for over a thousand years.

The Pakistanis are being mind numbingly stupid to think they can just be sort of pregnant by picking and choosing which jihadis to support based on their threat to Pakistan. They are all a threat to Pakistan. Those so-called "good" jihadis who wanted to target India were more than happy to sacrifice Pakistan's rulers in order to gain a tool to destroy India--a tool with nuclear weapons.

Still, India has an alternative to nukes to contain Pakistan's escalation options: water.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: Troops on both sides are leaning forward on the border:

Troops from Pakistan and India have exchanged fire in the disputed valley of Kashmir, officials in Islamabad said on Friday, as tensions between the rival nuclear powers escalate following a deadly terrorism attack in the region.

This likely telegraphs escalation rather than demonstrating they received orders to pull back and show restraint. 

UPDATE: Related thoughts on China-Pakistan ties versus U.S.-India ties. Defeating China and Pakistan-backed Islamism are common objectives for America and India.

But I'm not sure if the alignment on the other side is as clear. Would China be happy if Pakistan nuked India enough to take it off the board even if it took China's far less important piece down, too? 

UPDATE: My thoughts on India's Cold Start thinking is relevant, I imagine.

UPDATE: India is now a European colonial power now? Who knew? 

UPDATE: On Tuesday, Pakistan said an unjustified Indian strike is imminent. And note this:

Modi reportedly gave the armed forces “complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing” of India’s response.

As I warned in that first update link on my Cold Start thoughts, "it is dangerous that the Indian military doctrine essentially aims to achieve something before their own government can rein them in before achieving a military objective." 

UPDATE: On the brink of war, the brink of a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation, or the brink of the latter leading to the former? Also, both sides have nukes.

UPDATE: Weaker Pakistan waves its nuclear capability around:

Pakistan conducted a “successful training launch of the Abdali Weapon System — a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450 kilometres,” the military’s media arm said.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. 

NOTE: Map from https://www.mapsofworld.com/asia/maps/map-of-india-pakistan.gif. 

Facing China Requires a Global View

China is America's pacing military threat. As we pivot to face that most potent military threat in INDOPACOM, don't forget that America's presence in the Middle East and Europe are vital for facing the threats China poses.

News from the Middle East:

China, Iran and Russia conducted joint naval drills [during March] in the Middle East, offering a show of force in a region still uneasy over Tehran’s rapidly expanding nuclear program and as Yemen’s Houthi rebels threaten new attacks on ships.

The joint drills, called the Maritime Security Belt 2025, took place in the Gulf of Oman near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all crude oil traded worldwide passes.

For all the talk of pivoting away from Europe and the Middle East to face China in the Pacific, China is in the Middle East. Which includes their base in Djibouti and nearby port access in Pakistan. So we need to be in the Middle East to resist China, too. 

Further, even if Russia becomes our friend, Europe is a vital staging area--as I addressed in this Substack post--to send forces from the United States to the Middle East. Where China is, if I'm still unclear. And potentially on to the South China Sea or Australia.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Center Cannot Hold

Putin's facade of power is getting tarnished in the provinces. Can the center hold?

I have never assumed the Russian Empire was done fragmenting. And now, Putin's Chechen enforcer "Kadyrov is trying to use Islam to strengthen his control over Chechnya and other regions of the Caucasus he covets." 

Despite Putin's image as a new tsar controlling all, the empire is big and the center is too busy destroying its military and economic power to pay too much attention in the provinces.

Kadyrov is not a religious man, but a conniving politician trying to bring all the Moslem regions of the Caucasus under his control. Georgia, the only Christian state in the Caucasus fears it would be next on the absorption list if Kadyrov succeeds. This sort of grab for regional grab for power can be expected on a more general power struggle after President Putin of Russia dies.

Is Kadyrov carrying out the opening gambit for the Time of Troubles 2.0? And how much could Putin's authority shrink if that happens?

Perhaps we should disregard the warning shot of Prigozhin's brief mutiny because it was merely a warning that Putin is to strong, and aiming for the heart of the beast is premature. But I assume Kadyrov learned from that incident not to accept Putin's offer of a plane ride to safety.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Good Enough for Government Work!

America is doing just fine in combat since World War II, hand wringing notwithstanding.

I'm seeing frustration that post-World War II America isn't allowed to win wars.  

I’ve been saying this for some time now: post WWII, Western militaries are no longer allowed to win wars. 

Every civilian casualty of the opposing side is branded a war crime without any factual basis. Every targeted strike is deemed an “escalation,” even if it is a response to a planned attack from the enemy (as such here). Every siege is de factor unlawful (even though sieges are perfectly legal under international law). No international order can function like this—where the bad guys routinely survive and re-offend because total victory is simply not permitted.

The point about unfair war crimes accusations and uneven judgment is spot on. This is related to what I think are double standards in judging if America wins on the battlefield.

But recall the observation that North Vietnam lost all the battles against American troops but won the Vietnam War. Not really accurate, but close enough to be a good point.

Now apply that observation to post-World War II America. Maintaining the post-World War II world that America built is the war. The "wars" we have fought since World War II are really campaigns in the actual war. That should adjust our judgment about them, no? America won the Cold War despite our alleged failures in the campaigns that made up the war.

We continue to win that war to remain king of the hill. We can hold our heads up a little higher, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Urban War is Concentrated Hell

Don't let a fixation on "controlling the narrative" in a campaign in an enemy populated city get in the way of battlefield victory. The former is important achieve the latter. Victory should not be sabotaged to "win" the narrative.

The UN human rights chief was appalled by effects of renewed Israeli strikes on Hamas in Gaza. But not so horrified over the initial Hamas rape and murder invasion of Israel.

You want (tip to Instapundit) a lesson from the 10/7 war? Hamas started a war with a rape and murder invasion of Israel. Israel gave them war. End of lesson. Will the Islamist fanatics of Hamas learn that?

Because a decision to fight for a city is a decision to destroy it. That's long been true. Hamas chose to fight behind human shields in densely populated Gaza. Will Gazans who paid the price of death and destruction for cheering the invasion learn the lesson? Will they keep backing Hamas? Will they cheer another terror attack on Israel? Fear is said to be the beginning of wisdom. So maybe there is hope.

Will those outside of Gaza learn that lesson? Probably not. Gazans did not learn the lesson from the campaign for Mosul, Iraq, when ISIL decided to defend that city.

For me, the war for Gaza is another reason to avoid large-scale urban warfare if possible, as I wrote in Army. Clearly for Israel, it was not possible in this war. And when it comes to megacities, I really want to avoid primary responsibility for fighting in them.

Still, the battlefield lessons are useful. Most are old lessons. Check the second link out. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. Which is getting harder and harder to use for illustrating defense topics. I had to alter my request to be non-urban warfare related ("a color photo of a city street with rubble caused by an earthquake. Soldiers, bulldozers, and aerial drones are looking for survivors"). I've loved this capability. But it is getting harder to use lately. Why? Also, the AI doesn't know what a bulldozer looks like, apparently.

The Winter War of 2022 Focus Groups Another Model

Is the West German model appropriate for Ukraine? Of course, that model didn't end a war as much as it defined a new (cold) war.

Russia resists settling for anything short of the domination and subsequent destruction of a sovereign Ukraine:

The White House reiterated that the United States will not engage in economic agreements with Russia until Russia agrees to a ceasefire, amid continued Russian efforts to deflect blame onto Ukraine for the Kremlin's rejection of such a ceasefire.

Russia demonstrates that it wants to conquer Ukraine by reigniting a long-quiet front:

Russian forces have launched what could be the vanguard of a new offensive in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. While the success of this operation is in dispute, it marks an expansion of Moscow’s effort to stretch out Kyiv’s already-besieged forces.

Even as the war rages, a West German model for Ukraine after the war ends has been suggested:

No matter how Trump approaches the end of the war, the major concerns behind it—U.S.-Ukraine relations, Kyiv’s ambitions to join NATO, and the geopolitical struggle between the West and Russia—will long outlast his administration. In this new era, post-war Ukraine could emerge as a successor to Cold War-era West Germany: a frontline state whose strategic significance in the decades to come may ultimately prove as consequential as its current wartime struggle.

Before Russia invaded I said I wouldn't be shocked if that happens, but it isn't ideal.

But that model requires many orders of magnitude more NATO troops than a token "reassurance force" that Europeans have proposed scraping up to send to Ukraine after a ceasefire.

Also, I don't assume Russia can't be made to fear China more than it says it fears NATO.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine's Kursk salient inside Russia is essentially gone. It was a good test for achieving movement on the battlefield. And if Ukraine maintained a good kill ratio and distracted Russia from the rest of the front, it was a success. Also, a quick initial victory and very slow eventually defeat surely had a good effect on Ukrainian morale.

UPDATE (Wednesday): How easily could Russia resume the war?

The Kremlin appears to be increasingly concerned with the Russian military's ability to retain forces in the event of demobilization following a ceasefire or a negotiated peace.

Interesting. 

UPDATE (Saturday): The European proposal to end the war is perfectly reasonable if the assumption is that Russia will invade again the first chance it gets. Which right now is the way to bet. 

But if the American plan is to "flip" Russia into an ally against China, the rival assumptions doom the European plan for now. 

Russia should want the American plan. But Russia has fallen so far because it didn't get a short and glorious victory over Ukraine that I fear Russia sees no alternative to full vassal status under China.

So keep that European plan handy.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: Map from my college bible on the Cold War, U.S.-Soviet Military Balance 1960-1980.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: The Army's Multi-Domain Task Force

In case you missed it on Substack: Will Russia Reconstitute Its Strategic Myopia?

In case you missed it on Substack: The Charge of the CCP Brigade

In case you missed it on Substack: Drones Are Cheap Wonder Weapons

Say what you will about what I write, but I'm amazingly consistent across administrations, eh? You may enjoy agreeing with what you read. But isn't it good to know I don't blow with the prevailing winds? 

Putin doesn't want peace in Ukraine, notwithstanding Russia's unpopularity: "Except for Crimea, no other former part of the Soviet Union wants to rejoin the Union." Putin will keep killing until he can't. Russians need a good whack with the Clue Bat.

Russia is building the infrastructure to mass produce aerial drones.

It was thrilling and sad to see the Hong Kong democracy protesters before China unleashed Covid on the world. The biggest pro-democracy party is disbanding under pressure of the CCP boot. Hong Kong will have to wait for the next collapse of the Chinese Empire.

I'd show more concern for American information operations reductions if so much of what we had seemed to enrich Americans at home who don't seem to like America much while undermining America's enduring values messaging abroad.

Maybe the replacement for the Office of Net Assessment should be set up in an old mine shaft cut off from the outside world for three years with only classic books on political science, economics, and history and told to emerge with as many books as they can write on American and rival strategic options.

"Tens of thousands of Afghans have left Pakistan since the latest wave of deportations began in early April."

Good: "A new report by Taiwan’s government pledges to refocus military training on realistic threat scenarios, as the island nation contends with fresh Chinese saber-rattling close to home." I worry that Taiwanese troops would be shaky if the PLA gets ashore in force.

Good: "Dutch F-35 stealth fighters have, for the first time in Europe, used a data exchange system to transmit targeting coordinates to rocket artillery." Options expand when sensors and shooters are separate.

America is testing small USVs in the Red Sea. One worry is preventing enemies from seizing them. I'd say have self-destruct devices, but then enemies will send little kids to board them first. 

Yeah: "the public image of the PT boat speeding along, dodging enemy shellfire to sink an enemy warship several times its size, was, in fact, the exception to the rule." The modern successor, the USV, rides on that image.

Would Israel decide it needs some more aerial refueling capacity? 

Europeans pledge more military aid for Ukraine.

Parachuting into water on purpose.  

"A military where officers feel free to undermine their chain of command is not a military[.]" Ultimately, "There are worse things than having a lousy commander-in-chief. Like having an officer corps that feels free to advocate its own policies against the will of civilian leadership." Tip to Instapundit.

Russia's imperial mindset hasn't changed. The same can be said of the EU and its crisis du jour. And there's another empire wannabe.

German Leopard II tanks in Ukrainian service have proven to be overly complex (shades of World War II), vulnerable to top attack (as are all tanks), and too few (a common European problem).

If Ukraine is lucky, Europeans provide Ukraine with more aid than Europe provides Russia via energy purchases even three years after Russia invaded Ukraine. FFS.

To be fair, Leftists can only torch Teslas here on the ground.

The Bradley can launch from its TOW launcher small drones for "surveillance and reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and signal relay missions, and as a kamikaze drone[.]" 

Abandoning NATO: "Several thousand U.S. soldiers are headed to Europe for large-scale combat drills that will stretch from the Arctic to the Mediterranean region[.]" 

"The Navy’s forward-deployed European and African sea base is back in the U.S. after almost five years and set for a maintenance period[.]" The base does the job I had wanted The AFRICOM Queen to do.

The Army wants to dramatically and quickly upgrade the Abrams tank to the M1E3.

Gulp: "The navy has long had a growing problem with developing new ships and technology and the Ford is the worst example to date." I had thoughts on Ford's usefulness in the emerging networked world when it was still a blueprint. Also, "to date". Constellation has ambitions.

Trump is "ending US involvement in international organizations seeking to impose senseless carbon-based restrictions." Tip to Instapundit.

The Army is getting land along the Mexico border for a base--that it can protect even from illegal immigrants. Tip to Instapundit.

Via Instapundit, China experts seem to like China more than America. I've long complained that "understanding" an enemy too often slides into siding with that enemy. 

Propping up a barely concealed jihadi government in Syria that doesn't control more than the western core--minus the coast, increasingly--is insane. Don't trust "tame" jihadis. And don't try to put Humpty Dumpty together again under their tender mercies.

Is civil war coming to Europe? Probably But please define. Will governments side with Islamists against indigenous people? Will it be an Islamist insurrection? Will it be the EU versus still-functioning nations?

Defeat Hezbollah (and Hamas) by defeating their financing. Better late than never. 

It may seem odd that Europe is reaching out to China to counter America until you realize "Europe" hates America much more than China.

This article on North Korean-Russian arms and technology exchanges is great in putting everything together, but nothing seems new. What I'd like to know is whether the closer ties will be turned against China. 

Deconflicting commercial airline and commercial space launch traffic. Tip to Instapundit. 

Australia doesn't think Indonesia is going to grant Russia bombers basing rights, despite a report raising that possibility.

Why Afghanistan can't have nice things.

"Russia continues to have problems with local or foreign hackers committing major crimes." 

The MLRS can now fire 240 miles with the Precision Strike Missile.

The U.S. is reviewing the need for its bases in Europe. We need them to reach our enemies, too.

Uh oh: "Taiwan’s military remains a profoundly unserious organization. It is not ready to wage war. And the Taiwanese people know it." Willingness to fight when the going gets tough has long been my worry.

How Israel has won. Well, setting their objective as defeating the enemy on the battlefield rather than on formulating an "exit strategy" is probably explanation enough. But sure, call it "tenacity."

Commanding and controlling in large-scale combat operations. 

India, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan were unavailable for comment: "Taiwan absorbs Chinese power of persuasion and coercion that won’t be directed elsewhere while the island remains free."

Former Soviet republics in Central Asia don't side with Ukraine and buy into Moscow's spin that Russia is needed to counter the West. I imagine they also want to balance China which is making inroads. Note too that Russia has "accommodated" China's rising influence. Winning!

My first impression is that if Australia buys B-2 bombers it won't have money for any other military assets. 

Israel has no deadline for removing its troops from Gaza, Lebanon, or Syria.

The U.S. rotated a small number of B-1 bombers into Japan for a while. 

Well sure, the B-2s are saving the MOPs for Iran.

Europe increases its military aid to Ukraine. But Europeans are slow to build up their defense industry. Would Europeans buy American weapons for Ukraine?  

China's defense budget is much larger than you think it is. This has long been true. It has also long been true that China is much closer to the war should they start it. Tip to Instapundit.

Turkey ethnically and religiously cleanses the portion of Cyprus it captured over fifty years ago.

Europe seeks influence in Central Asia.

Russia threatens Poland and the Baltic States. Bold poo to fling when Russia is embarrassing itself in Ukraine. 

The U.S. will withdraw half of its 2,000 troops in Syria. The number is so low that a thousand could easily rotate in for specific missions. Also, Europe?

Huh: "Yemeni militias are planning a ground offensive against the Houthis in an attempt to take advantage of a U.S. bombing campaign[.]" Like I said.

Space launch based on decommissioned Peacekeeper ICBM. 

Defining the scope of Golden Dome. Critical military, defense industry, and logistics infrastructure are priorities. But if Israel's experience with Iron Dome is any indicator, pressure to protect civilians will expand the original scope. And cost.

Is the Trump effort to split Russia from China futile and based on misconceptions about the strength of the 2001 treaty of friendship between the two? I think that treaty is Russian appeasement of China. And I think there are territorial fissures to split open. But sure, Russia could keep being stupid.

I'm just happy Space Force doesn't see itself as a uniformed NASA. Tip to Instapundit.

A German-Italian consortium will offer submarines to the Philippines.

Can Turkey get back into the F-35 program? Well, this was always an Erdogan problem and not a S-400 problem.

Could containerized missiles fill gaps in Australia's strike and air defense capabilities? Every day more systems are developed that are appropriate for my old Modularized Auxiliary Cruiser concept.

The European Main Ground Combat System program for new tanks and derived vehicles advances organizationally.

You're damn right it was the Wuhan Flu! Tip to Instapundit. 

Strengthening the Panama-United States security relationship.

Sh*t got real: U.S. destroys key Houthi oil terminal. 

Can "Europe" prevent another Ethiopia-Eritrea war? LOL. The EU only wants the power to negotiate a deal. A war is ideal from that perspective.

Friggin' air-to-air lasers on drones. 

A containerized 40mm last-ditch air defense gun. Another system appropriate for my old Modularized Auxiliary Cruiser concept.

Win a short war against China or lose a long war? Nice work if you can get it. Accepting that logic requires America to launch a first strike. Even if we reject that, China will assume we embrace it. Having fun yet?

Say, maybe Taiwan would like American nuclear missiles: "A Chinese government-linked satellite company provided intelligence to the Houthis, according to US officials[.]" 

Huh: "People’s Republic of China (PRC) military officers have visited Russian-held territory in Ukraine and toured the frontlines [to learn lessons from the war.]" Or ... to judge how bad Russia's troops are now. Just saying.

Iran's proxy on the Red Sea, the Houthi. 

Should the Philippines buy American military power by granting America natural resource concessions in the South China Sea? Hmmm. Chinese power enough to chase of the Philippines would face a harder task against America.

Aiding Ukraine costs America money. But how do you value what America is learning about how its weapons function in combat against Russian weapons? And that's on top of the value of blunting Russia's threat to Europe.

"China is upset over how neighboring North Korea has turned to Russia as an ally and now ignores traditional patron China." How far will that new relationship go? 

Reach out and touch someone.

Japan has a turret-mounted electromagnetic rail gun on its test ship JS Asuka. If it can be made workable, I think it will provide networked mass fires at sea.

NATO beefs up its ability to control the Baltic Sea.

Trump could recognize Russian control of Crimea if it is part of ending the Winter War of 2022. There are ways this could benefit Ukraine if structured right.

Can the democratic resistance repel the pro-Russia governing party's growing repression? 

Pentagon statement on reducing troops in Syria while continuing to fight Islamist terrorists.

Sure, Central Asia is on Putin's Reclaim the Soviet Empire tour. But re-conquering it seems out of reach. And if Russia does turn on Central Asia, it exposes the lie of the NATO threat poised to invade Russia.

Is it really military reform? "[China's] latest reform included three parts: eliminating the Strategic Support Force (SSF), establishing a new Information Support Force (ISF) responsible for network defense and communications support, and placing the ISF and three other support forces under Xi’s direct control." 

That's bad: "Iran proposed a three-stage nuclear deal proposal that caps Iranian uranium enrichment but would leave the necessary infrastructure in place to enable Iran to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program if the deal collapsed." It exploits a red herring using purchased nukes to defend rapid nuclear expansion.

Can any of the North Koreans sent to Russia go home again? I've long believed seeing the outside world "contaminated" them too much to risk "infecting" people in Kim's paradise.

Eric's defense of the Iraq War cited one of my Substack posts, so I'll link my Substack note linking his recent update citing one of my posts.

"The disruptive impact of small groups of radicals is a long tradition in the Middle East, especially after Islam was introduced over a thousand years ago." 

It's a shame we can't salvage the mass of the ISS sent into orbit at great cost. But it's a multinational orbiting wreck figuratively up on cinder blocks. Tip to Instapundit.

Israel launched more air strikes against jihadis in Gaza. If Hamas fighters won't surrender, they have to be killed. Arguing otherwise is supporting a Hamas victory.