When You Start to Take Ukraine, Take Ukraine?

It strikes me that Russia is in a difficult position having threatened to invade Ukraine. Anything less than major conquest--and maybe not even that--will push Ukraine closer to the West and make it less willing to deal with Russia on anything.

Vladimir Putin. Genius: 

The Americans and NATO nations have been quietly flying modern weapons into Ukraine. American Special Forces are training Ukrainian counter-terrorism forces and implying (or quietly telling) Ukrainians that the U.S. plans continued support if Russians do move into Ukraine. ... Eastern Europe NATO nations have been sending Ukraine the same message. The Russian threats appear to make it more likely that Ukraine will join NATO. Keeping Ukraine out of NATO is the main objective of the current Russian confrontation.

One weakness argues against war:

One of the biggest state secrets in Russia is how many young men have been killed under Putin’s watch. He pays very close attention to these numbers because it is one of his key political vulnerabilities. 

This isn't 1941-1945 any more. Combined with Russia's already inadequate ground forces, I don't think Russia can risk a move to conquer Ukraine let alone risk war with NATO.

Won't anything that merely hurts Ukraine without defeating Ukraine simply push NATO to support Ukraine more openly and push Ukraine to see no choice but to get closer to NATO and truly westernize? 

Even Finland and Sweden are edging closer to NATO as Russia's bizarre threats continue.

Strategery.

Unless Putin is threatening to invade Ukraine to get NATO to breathe a sigh of relief when Putin "only" announces that Russian troops exercising in Belarus will remain permanently; or that Russia is "only" annexing the Donbas; or "only" annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, what actual military action makes sense? 

Remember, breathing a sigh of relief for a deal is justified only if you assume Putin is planning to attack: 

The lack of a diplomatic solution will logically lead to a further escalation of the crisis, and increase the chances that the only way out of it will be through the use of what Russian officials call "military-technical means." 

If Putin doesn't plan to attack--or if Russia would suffer more than it gains by attacking--a "diplomatic" solution is simply giving Russia something for the trouble of bluffing.

Russia is willing to bluff for high stakes.

In many ways, Russia's military option seems limited to wrecking Ukraine for a generation to buy time to deal with the real military threat to Russian territorial integrity. 

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings 

UPDATE: It is perhaps unfair to say all Russians share Putin's delusion that NATO represents a threat to Russia:

Comments implying that President Vladimir Putin’s ultimatums and threats against the US, other NATO states and Ukraine are counterproductive have appeared in Russia’s hitherto unimpeachably loyal media. Even muffled dissent in an increasingly authoritarian state suggests that disquiet in the Russian professional security elite may be more widespread than visible. 

Maybe Putin will hang by his heels at the hands of frightened Russians before this is over.

Weekend Data Dump

Silly me, it's only treasonous fantasy if Republicans claim elections are rigged! Now it's all clear. Of course, Democratic claims of a rigged election in 2020 prior to winning already made it clear. Tip to Instapundit.

Well: "An Israeli arms manufacturer has developed a robot weapon that can fire infantry weapons at static and moving targets while flying." My drone combat air patrol idea raised in Army magazine takes shape. [Later: More on SMASH Dragon and other smart sights.]

Fascinating warning: "The pursuit of "absolute national security" can extract a heavy price, a Chinese foreign policy adviser has warned, citing the collapse of the Soviet Union as proof[.]" Well, a collapsed Russia can't distract America, eh? Will Russia heed the warning? Will China?

The North Korean army is a walking corpse: "It used to be that about ten percent of the million men in the military were well supplied and trained. Those units have received less of everything over the last decade, especially food and fuel." Think of their army as solitary confinement for revolution-aged males inside the prison of North Korea.

NATO moved tripwire air and naval forces east. 

I don't believe Biden's "limited incursion" gaffe is a "green light" for Russia to attack Ukraine any more than I believe our ambassador in 1990 signaled that it was okay for Iraq to invade Kuwait. In both cases, many more signals contradicted the so-called green lights.

China plugged into the America-sponsored global economy and prospered. Rather than becoming democratic (yet?) China has become aggressive with that new power. But as a frightened world unplugs from China, the Chinese Communist Party will miss being fully in that global economy a lot more than if it never plugged in.

Cyberware won't be as a bad strategically as people fear it could be. My worry is that aggressors believing they are safe in the online world will find they hurt someone enough to retaliate with kinetics. Although in some tactical situations it might be important.

Florida Monkey.

Democracy dies in darkness: Did Biden subcontract Iran nuclear negotiations to Russia? If not, why won't Biden let Congress see the proposal? Shades of "it's not secret but you still can't see them." Via Instapundit.

Say? Whatever happened to this Chinese security guarantee for Ukraine? Could China be quietly restraining Russia? Or was that just a scrap of paper worth nothing more than anything else China signs?

He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance. I've long been unhappy with forfeiture laws. Tip to Instapundit.

This tends to make Russia think we're girding for conflict, too: "The State Department on Sunday ordered the families of all American personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine to leave the country amid heightened fears of a Russian invasion."

Maybe the recruiting pool doesn't think joining a woke military is appealing, eh? 

Strategery.

Kill 'em all while they are combatants: "The U.S. carried out airstrikes in support of the Syrian Democratic Forces battling an ISIS prison break, the Pentagon confirmed Friday afternoon."

Two American carrier groups exercised in the South China Sea. I assume it is the part far from China. 

A Russian invasion of Ukraine will prompt more NATO strength in the east--which is what Russia says it doesn't want. Chimps with nukes.

Jared Yates Sexton seems to have the intellectual capacity normally associated with paper weights and test dummies.

The Russians loudly threaten to invade Ukraine but then feign shock when NATO reacts, accusing NATO of raising tensions. God help us, there are Westerners who can go along with that.

All I know for sure is that if this was a story about Trump it would be on CNN 24/7. Via Instapundit.

This would certainly explain that concept of second breakfast.

Biden put 8,500 troops on alert, some of which are assigned to the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force. This is more reassurance of NATO allies than deterrence of Russia.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings: "Most Russian officials still strive to maintain the old pattern: rebuking the perfidious West for accusing 'peace-loving' Russia of aggression for absolutely no reason (RIA Novosti, January 19, 2022). However, they increasingly contradict the words of their own war-fixated propagandists."

 

Even if Russia captures Kiev, why does that mean Russia controls the government? Couldn't the Ukrainian government flee westward to carry on the fight as the legitimate government? 

Russia military options. Good Lord, he mentioned the Suwalki Gap and Narva!

Dog bites man: "Ukraine says it has arrested Russian-backed saboteurs who were plotting attacks in border regions with the aim of 'destabilising' the country."

Oh, FFS: "The combat system for the Navy’s newest and costliest warship, the $13 billion Gerald R. Ford, 'has yet to demonstrate that it can effectively' defend the aircraft carrier from anti-ship missiles and other threats, according to a new assessment by the Pentagon’s testing office." I wasn't happy with a perfectly working and under-budget ship.

I'm so old I remember when being mean to reporters was a war on freedom of the press. Restoring dignity--and respect for the press--to the White House.

Thoughts on America, Europeans, and the Russian threat to Ukraine.

Interesting, if true (via Instapundit):  "Hacktivists in Belarus said on Monday they had infected the network of the country’s state-run railroad system with ransomware and would provide the decryption key only if Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko stopped aiding Russian troops ahead of a possible invasion of Ukraine." Did you expect this wouldn't happen?

Russia does not currently look like it is preparing for a large-scale war on conquest against Ukraine: "We believe that, if Putin and his team have not lost their ability to think rationally, they will not go for such a scenario." That's reassuring?

I do not have disdain for those who mask. I have disdain for the masked who insist I wear a mask. And I do get annoyed with the anti-maskers who show disdain, too. So far, despite being a rare unmasked in public places, I've yet to meet anyone who wants to be in the Fauci Militia. I had a box of N95s before the pandemic. Within the limitations of type, time, threat level, and user skill, masks provide friction for the virus. Once I thought that was decisive. Now, with shots, treatments, and less-lethal and more-transmissible variants, I do not. Related thoughts.

I had to bleach my eyes (via Insanity Wrap). But good Lord, that must be satire, right? Right?!

China has economic problems. How bad? This bad: "a major government debt management official was executed a year ago as the government declared the debt-crisis a matter of national security." Do China's fanboys still pine for "being China for a day"? Because being China 365 days per year causes problems. China may muddle through. But don't drone on about their purported planning brilliance.

If Russia gets bogged down in a war with Ukraine--let alone dragging NATO in--would China exploit Russia's mistake to reduce by a bit more that Century of Humiliation? Don't think they are allies. And getting into a war pushes Russia deep enough into vassal status to tempt China to end the facade.

I doubt this can do more than slow Iran down, but it may reduce the number of sorties needed to do real damage: "A shadowy battle between Israel and Iran has intensified since the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018."

Huh: "The Taliban have begun cracking down harder as women insist on their rights and as Western governments call for reforms."

 

My level of confidence in our senior military leadership's ability to deploy trained and effective military units is not helped: "Seven sailors were injured Monday when a F-35C Joint Strike Fighter jet suffered a 'landing mishap'" on one of our carriers in the Pacific. One of a "string of mishaps" for the air wing.

Iran's proxy war on the UAE continues: "U.S. forces at Al Dhafra Air Base, near Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), engaged two inbound missile threats with multiple Patriot interceptors[.]"

Turkey's outreach to Russia may not last. Well, no.

American ground forces in Syria are providing limited help to the Kurds battling the ISIL prison-break offensive.

Making friends and influencing people in Africa to extend the Air Forces's range there.

I admit I didn't see the logic of this move to kill a non-Russian natural gas pipeline to Europe. Perhaps it makes more sense in the original Klingon. Tip to Instapundit.

Well obviously Putin is a stronger leader than Biden. Putin is also a lying bastard. The two opinions can stand side by side. Shame on Yahoo!News for spinning this as Republicans being pro-Putin. And yeah, I'd obviously rather have Russia as an ally to block China. But not at the price of throwing Ukraine under the bus.

Speaking of newly Third World hell-holes.

I'm not worried about war in Ukraine escalating to strategic nuclear warfare. Maybe growing up in the Cold War--and studying it--calms me. I don't think even a limited Russian war against Ukraine leads to war between NATO and Russia. This time. Although shit happens. And this problem on our end.

Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine freeze Europe? Good: "U.S. and European officials are coordinating with natural gas suppliers around the globe to cushion the impact if Russia were to cut off energy supplies in the conflict over Ukraine[.]" The Germans remain shocked that Unicorn scat isn't 25% of their energy supply by now.

The Left believes it can put into practice the Russian proverb that the tallest grass gets cut first. Shame on them.

Sure. Until you are wealthy enough you have to suck the marrow out of every bit of your environment to survive.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen are retreating. Locals with outside backing can fight common enemies. Pity we didn't comprehend that in Afghanistan. Not that Yemen has a lot of promise as a functioning state.

"The Kremlin on Wednesday said that imposing sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin personally would be 'politically destructive' and would not hurt him[.]" Indeed.

 

Russia has revived the European need for NATO: "Putin may carry a big bazooka, but it seems to be aimed at his own foot." Russia is NATO's best recruiter. Putin has accelerated that. Strategery.

India: Act East in action. Another step to Fight East.

LOL: "Pentagon officials have confirmed that Biden placed 8,000 troops on high alert to protect the White House in case Fox News reporter Peter Doocy retaliates for Biden insulting him in a press conference yesterday." #Petersurrection. 😬 Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The road to Hell San Francisco is paved with progressive intentions. 

I suspect nerd archeologists are channeling the former at the expense of the latter. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Friendly Syrian forces recaptured that ISIL prison. 

That's effed up. Chain of command confusion, anyone?

Oddly, the war on terror isn't over despite the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle. War on ISIL 2.0?

Let's prevent China from raising it from the sea floor, shall we? "A F-35C fighter jet that crashed onto the deck of the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson Monday subsequently fell into the South China Sea[.]" Oh, good.

That will help suppress Kaliningrad missiles while enabling sea-based air defenses for Baltic NATO states plus Sweden and Finland: "The U.S. Navy recently moved sailors aboard its newest base, a strategic installation in northern Poland that will support NATO’s European missile defense system."

Essentially, five carriers: "Two U.S carriers and two amphibious ships, along with their escorts and 26 F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters drilled with a Japanese large deck warship last week in the Philippine Sea." Actually, 42. Well, 41 now. 

We're used to Iran rattling sabres to jump the price of oil. In the end, is this what Russia is trying to do with all their threats against NATO and Ukraine? Is Russia closer to a poor state than to a modern power? 

That's fun. Now do communists who actually organized anti-Iraq War and Occupy Wall Street protests!

I guess Australians will never know the identity or motivation of that "former soldier." But at least the story had a happy ending when the suicide vest went off while the bomber drove along. Tip to Treacher.

To be fair (via Treacher), he is science.

I see Justice Breyer just made a massive contribution to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Would the Democrats have the guts to delay confirmation until after the election? Although I don't see how his conditions to step down can possibly be met.

Earth's plate movement is caused by the gravity of the sun and moon, in addition to the molten core. Interesting. Wait. What? We're going to lose the Moon in a billion years? Where will it go?

Japan continues to rearm. Although the people shortage is getting in the way. The Japanese seem in no mood to share Xi's China Dream. Maybe those elder care robots will have reserve programming to fight.

This is puzzling: "The Israeli Commando Brigade has created a special field hospital unit that can be quickly flown in and set up wherever the brigade is operating[.]" Commandos raid. Not stay. Might the unit secure an Iranian reactor while it is safely disabled? Launched from the Arab side of the Gulf with the hospital there for casualties? 

Wealth and not non-fossil fuels are key to protecting the environment. America's environment got amazingly better over the last 50 years even with massive fossil fuel use.

Putin has modernized the Russian military. But that is a small portion of the military. Which is a small fraction of the Soviet military. And the depth of the modernization is low. Don't expect the smart bombs to last long. Although I do expect their electronic warfare is good.

NATO apparently rejected Russia's demands. And despite the warmer ties, I think there is no way Turkey wants Russia to control the northern shore of the Black Sea. 

Well that was a depressing take.

Cast a giant shadow: "More than 140 warships and support vessels, along with 60 aircraft and a total of 10,000 personnel, will participate in the drills, according to the Russian MoD." The story highlights the big ships but Russia's surface navy is closer to a well-armed coast guard.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Voter-ID laws are not the ‘new Jim Crow’: The debate over US election laws is completely divorced from reality." The "reality-based" party, indeed. Tip to The Morning Briefing. 

One problem that Russia has with blackmailing Germany with energy is that if Putin actually cuts off Germany, an already compliant and demilitarized Germany might rouse itself to rearm to resist Russia.

What are Russian Spetsnaz doing inside Ukraine? And isn't it risky pre-war given that the Ukrainians might kill or capture these special forces? Or is this Russian disinformation?

Some perspective on the Ukraine crisis. Putin is no chess master and NATO isn't fumbling. The author quotes Grant, which I heartily endorse! Putin doesn't impress me. Are we witnessing a "dead cat bounce" that leaves Russia a vassal of China? Will Putin take down Russia with him?

Russian military action is "imminent" but the logistics for a major war are not evident. We need to define "imminent" and/or "military action", eh? But the Olympics could delay Putin? Feh. Putin might enjoy upstaging his leash-holder a bit.

Submit Club. Wait until the CCP does Star Wars. Via Instapundit.

If Russia's threats to destroy Ukraine don't result in a deal Russia likes, Russia will take "retaliatory measures". #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings

Iraqis we train and support continue to kill jihadis: "Nowadays, that fight is a law-enforcement operation as much as it is a military mission, requiring warrants and solid intelligence, but Iraqi commandos are still at the tip of the spear, led by special-operations forces that still have a very close relationship with the US special-operations community." That's victory. Contrast that with what we needlessly lost in Afghanistan. Can we salvage that kind of victory despite our defeat?

OJ Biden continues to look for the real killer horse-riding, migrant-whipping border agents. Tip to Treacher.

Layers and layers of fact checkers backing up college-educated professional journalism. Oops. Tip to Treacher.

Maybe Biden should nominate Kamala Harris as Secretary General of the United Nations General Assembly. That gets her out of his administration and Democratic politics. And quite possibly destroys the UN. Win-win.

The punishments will continue until morale improves. 

The "Pest and Slightest." Tip to Instapundit.

Western athletes should be ashamed to go to the Chinese Olympics. Their names should be worthless for endorsement deals.

Germany sends a warship to the Pacific, knowing it will never fight China. But with Russia threatening Ukraine, Germany reluctantly sends only some helmets to Ukraine. What is wrong with Germany?

Ukraine should just give up on getting Russian-occupied Donbas back. Send Russia the deed and a big bill for the sale. Good riddance. Teach people that if they pine for Russian control they just might have to endure it. And send Russia the rent bill for Crimea, too. Along with hefty late payment penalties piling up over the last 8 years.

China's climate change promises were all about hobbling the West economically, apparently.

Gosh, I wonder if that will expand the black market for firearms? Tip to Instapundit.

Japan reaches for stealth.

There are lots of criticisms of Biden on Ukraine. Yes, he flubbed in his press conference. But that's insignificant as a "green light." Sure, letting the Nordstream II pipeline go through was a big mistake that screws Ukraine. And energy policies are a gift to Russia, in general. But mostly, America's reactions to Russia's Ukraine threats have been--broadly--fine. I'd like more equipment for Ukraine. But I don't know if Ukraine's military could absorb a lot quickly. Most of my crisis worries are about what Putin may do--and how Biden will react to that.

Imperialism with Chinese characteristics.

The 8,500 American troops alerted for possible movement to eastern Europe are mostly light units. This is symbolic and not a real force to fight Russian heavy armor. What we really need to do is have a robust REFORPOL.

America's mine sweeping capacity is dangerously insufficient. 

It is true that NATO does not have an "open door" policy. But Russia must not be the door man.

This is no historical analogy: "This history shows we did not expand NATO much when it was focused on the core mission of deterrence — and maybe that should be a valuable guideline for today, too." Back in the Cold War, NATO could not expand much more because the USSR controlled the states that joined NATO in large numbers after the collapse of the USSR.

This complaint is silly. Look, NATO has a veto because the 8,500 American troops are earmarked for a NATO force. And any American deployment to another sovereign country needs their permission, at least.

Exposing Russian disinformation is a start. But it's a big job.

Honestly, I think Russia's exercises in Belarus are more about practicing an attack through the Suwalki Gap and Lithuania some time in the future than they are a preparation for an imminent invasion of Ukraine. The heavy air defense aspect is unneeded for Ukraine.

When the government won't protect people from criminals (via Instapundit), people will protect themselves. And when government won't prosecute the criminals, I wonder what armed people will do?

I say Boston should enjoy their woke snow-covered streets: "Never heard of snow-plow equity? The 'e' word gives it all away. Equity – in this case, that means bicycle lanes should get plowed before … pick any major thoroughfare." Good luck if you call 9-1-1! FFS, these people are morons. Tip to Instapundit.

Wow. "Dissent on foreign policy is the highest form of patriotism" died so fast I didn't even get a chance to notice! I find the Democrats' sudden transformation more astounding.

Looking through thousands of straws: Open source intelligence at crowd-sourcing scale.

Great. Yet another thing more important to our Pentagon than victory: "In his most sweeping statement on the issue to date, Mr. Austin set in motion a series of measures that military officials say are intended to change how commanders in the field think about their jobs, fostering a culture in which they view preventing civilian harm as a core part of their missions." We are careful. But now we have another substitute for victory. This will be battlefield analysis paralysis.

I'm not shocked: "The Army’s new lightweight infantry assault buggy is cramped as hell, too small to haul supplies, and 'not operationally effective for employment in combat and [engagement, security cooperation and deterrence] missions against a near-peer threat[.]'" We either have light infantry or don't. Stop pretending we can have light infantry without the "walking" part.

The Russian claim NATO is finally willing to discuss their concerns: "Lavrov noted Friday that the U.S. suggested the two sides could talk about limits on the deployment of intermediate-range missiles, restrictions on military drills and rules to prevent accidents between warships and aircraft." But Russia is the side deploying theater nuclear missiles, lying about massive drills, and acting unsafe at sea and in the air. 

Coup in Burkina Faso. It won't make things better. 

Putin and the Iranian mullahs smile.

Putin says the West is ignoring Russian security concerns. Well frankly, Russia's security concerns in the west are paranoid nonsense with no logical endpoint. Meanwhile, China rises in Russia's Far East.

Space war: "A Chinese satellite was observed grabbing another satellite and pulling it out of its normal geosynchronous orbit[.]" We can always buy one part of Elon Musk's satellite cloud and ram the Chinese grabbing satellite. Tip to Instapundit.

Democrats are confused. Supreme Court justices aren't supposed to represent specific racial, ethnic, or gender groups. Justices are supposed to represent the Constitution. I'm glad I could clear that up.

Uh oh. Just a reminder. Willow didn't kill herself--nine times. That will lose the last demographic Biden retains--crazy cat ladies. Tip to Treacher.

So that's how the memory hole works. Well, when a Democrat is president. Otherwise, we'd need a 24/7 national conversation on "lying America into war."

To be fair, they have to go easy on them to encourage others the next time Democrats find street violence advantageous. 

Huh (via Instapundit): "Top Chinese scientist working in Hypersonic program flees China with critical secrets[.]" I hope the program details tell us if China's program is a threat to our home ports.

The vote wasn't rigged--oh no!--but the voting system was unconstitutional. We'll see if the ruling stands on appeal.

News from Airstrip One. 

Bravo. Really.

The Canadian left believes that Canadian truckers protesting harsh state controls are the fascists. Huh. Well, they did reelect a prime minister who wore black face. Their judgment might be poor, eh?

Just as in 2020 before the election, Democrats are claiming the upcoming election will be rigged against them. I'm sensing a pattern. Tip to Instapundit.

I've noticed a pattern. When America has disputes with countries, we're told enemies are just friends we haven't made yet. And also, what did we do to deserve their hate? When Russia creates disputes with neighbors, we're told their worries are justified because in the 20th, 19th, and 18th centuries, they were invaded from the west. And don't get me started on the Crusades--when that was a counterattack against the original Islamic conquest of Christian lands.

Bounce the ruble.

Experience, competence, and no mean tweets.

Regime change success story: "Yet Panama is one of Latin America’s most striking political and economic success stories of the past three decades. Not only has it remained a stable democracy, but it has also been the region’s fastest-growing economy and today ranks among its most developed countries." It all depends on who invades you.

The latest German Question. Be part of the West and defend it, I say.

Xi Jinping has been very quiet. Is he worried about resistance within the CCP to his rule? Uh oh.

Hmmm. I come back to the question of whether the high drama of Putin's threat to Ukraine is for the purpose of making NATO breathe a sigh of relief when he "only" annexes Russian-occupied Donbas. And maybe Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia, while he's at it.

Isn't this like an African-American Auxiliary of the KKK? "A woman who once lived in Kansas has been arrested after federal prosecutors charged her with joining the Islamic State group and leading an all-female battalion of AK-47 wielding militants."

If it was a perfect phone call, wouldn't we have seen it already? On the bright side, our bureaucrats no longer leak such things! Wow. Am I an optimist, or what? 

It is true that Russia's troops on Ukraine's borders are too few for a pacification campaign if Russia takes a lot of territory. But Putin's National Guard--hundreds of thousands strong--could be called in for that behind the spearheads. I still doubt that is the plan. But the option is there.

Ukrainians, already used to the subliminal war that Russia has been waging since invading in 2014, don't seem concerned that Russia will invade. But  given what Ukrainians are used to, do they assume Russia will escalate that low-level fight in some way?

Getting into space. I remember watching Apollo launches live on TV. I hoped we'd be at this point many decades ago.

Could a new engine one day increase the F-35A and F-35C range by 25%?

Modeling the Marines' reshaping effort like the Army did after Vietnam by addressing doctrine, equipment, and people is fine. But the Army focused on one objective: beating a Soviet-style army. The Marines have the job of beating the Chinese navy now. But that Pacific mission isn't the Marine mission in Europe or Africa, which remains closer to traditional amphibious capabilities. Don't the Marines need two lines of effort? 

To repeat, I would not send American troops to fight for Ukraine. But if Ukrainians are willing to fight and die to protect Ukraine from Russia, I say we give Ukraine the equipment and intelligence needed to kill Russian soldiers. Maybe lend-lease 2.0 is in order. 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his administration to consider an apparent new system to ban 'toxic' internet content, although details were not released." All Russian Internet media immediately went dark after the announcement.

And Now For Something Completely Different

Life's the same, I'm meming in stereo. Life's the same except for my memes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Han and Their Plan Will Thump You Up

Will Chinese over-confidence plunge Asia into war?

The Chinese younger generation is full of confidence and chauvinism:

"Post-millennial students usually have a strong sense of superiority and confidence, and they tend to look at other countries from a condescending perspective," Yan Xuetong, director of Tsinghua University's international studies institute, said at a conference in Beijing last Saturday.

"[They] look at international affairs with a make-believe mindset, thinking it's very easy for China to achieve its foreign policy goals. They think only China is just and innocent, while other countries, especially Western countries, are evil and thus have natural hatred towards Westerners." ...

He said heightened nationalism among people born after 2000 was driven mainly by key opinion leaders on the internet, with students being heavily influenced by conspiracy theories and economic determinism.

China is already leaning forward well before their objective to achieve the China Dream by 2049, the centennial of the People's Republic of China.

I've worried about China's rulers being stampeded into war by nationalist subjects who would be furious with the Chinese Communist Party for failing to stand up to the foreign devils:

So the Chinese government which has spent a couple decades stoking xenophobic nationalism in the public raised expectations of resisting such an American operation--and then did nothing.

At what point will the Chinese party-run government feel so pressured by a public clamor to do something--as they've been trained to expect--when we do the same again?

And how does the Chinese military feel? They have all this new hardware and they're feeling newly powerful.

I've also worried that the Chinese rulers might more easily go to war because they have an inflated sense of China's relative power:

China is a danger because their chest is swelling over their regained military stature. And while their actual power will help decide the outcome of a war, their beliefs about their power will help decide whether they start a war.

I liken it to new soldiers just out of boot camp. You enter probably out of shape and a pure civilian. You endure and come out part of the mean green fighting machine, with new muscles and the new skills of killing planted in you. You think you are a bad-ass SEAL Team 6-level killing machine in your still-crisp BDUs (or whatever they are called now).

But you are not a killing machine. You aren't even a cog in the killing machine. You are just the first rough stamping of a cog that will eventually be sanded and polished into a part of the killing machine. I remember our drill sergeants telling us that we need to avoid being full of ourselves when we leave basic training and move on to a new base or go back on the block. We are stronger than when we arrived. Do not mistake that for being stronger than other people, they warned. If we do, we'll get our butts kicked.

Even if the Chinese Communist Party rulers aren't confused about the correlation of forces, the pressure to fight and come home by Christmas the Chinese New Year might be too strong to resist. Because who gets to order the PLA into combat?

Oh, and don't count on that mythical innate Chinese long-range planning ability to avoid bad decisions.

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: China threatens war. This will play well for a domestic audience.

Deciding What is Necessary Before You Can Know

Judging when a state's resort to violence is necessary in defense of national interests is hard to do.

Hard to disagree given that wars often go awry: 

Wars, therefore, should be rare and utterly necessary.

The author contends that America's wars after World War II largely fail that test and result in defeat. I'm pretty sure that is false, at least on victory, but I respect the author. He has good points about the principle and figuring out how to fight a particular war. 

I readily concede that going to war doesn't have to mean hundreds of thousands of troops in direct combat. That should absolutely be up for debate. As long as you realize a potential problem with that is failing to win quickly with overwhelming force and risking endless escalation to more expensive stalemate.

But sure, we should absolutely pace ourselves where we can.

More fundamentally, how do you know what is utterly necessary or not? What is "another Vietnam" and what is "another Munich"?

Who would have gone to war with Germany over the Rhineland as utterly necessary? Or over the Sudetenland? 

Face it, if the Western Allies had gone to war between 1936 and 1938 and quickly defeated still-weak Nazi Germany, people would have argued the easy victory proved the war was unnecessary. 

Especially against a Nazi Germany that was not yet the country of genocide and world war in Europe that we understood in 1945. 

Without knowledge of the future between 1938 appeasement and 1945 global war and genocide, killing baby Hitler is a cruel and repulsive crime. As would be a war on the German people over one odd and admittedly distasteful little Austrian corporal who was talking big.

And of course, many in the West agreed that the Versailles Treaty was too harsh on Germany. The poor babies.

By all means, war should be rare and utterly necessary. Make efforts to make war both. But the "last resort" standard is not the answer. You can always cling to hopes of peaceful resolution, no matter how slim:

This is why the anti-war side's constant refrain that military force must be a last resort rings so false to me. When you believe that any path, no matter how unlikely to bear fruit, keeps you from that "last" resort, then military force is practically speaking never an option.

And that issue gets complicated even more, really.

So have some sympathy for the decisions of leaders who can't see the future with the clarity of seeing the past.*

*And Hell, we're not very good at that, either. Which is why I have sympathy for the people of Russia whose paranoid rulers see baby Hitler everywhere they look in the nursery.

Keep Hope Alive in Ukraine

If the West is cooperative enough, Putin can advance his objectives in Ukraine without risking the casualties that could undo his own rule.

Is Putin counting on Biden to blink?

Putin’s ultimate motives for his troop buildup are to prevent NATO expansion and force Ukraine, Georgia, and other countries surrounding Russia’s borders into neutrality. This is dangerous, Gregory points out, because these countries would lose any hope of being under NATO’s security umbrella or acquiring weapons from the West to deter future Russian aggression. Moreover, Russia will continue to engage in hybrid warfare against these countries to bring them directly into the Russian orbit.

Exactly. We may not want war, but Russia may not either, hoping to bully the West:

Yet giving in to Russia's demands won't end well. Imposing "neutrality" on Ukraine won't preserve the peace. Denying them the right to associate with countries that promote their security and prosperity simply tells Ukrainians that the Russians can capture Ukraine when they are ready. Past Russian promises failed. Notice the pattern. 

A Ukraine denied hope of rescue from Russia's clutches may become demoralized and ripe for subversion. As I mentioned in a data dump, "if Ukraine isn't moving toward the West, Putin will drag it toward Russia."

Just the hope of NATO membership is probably good enough to keep Ukraine moving west: 

"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Friday ruled out any halt to the continued expansion of the military organization to address Russian security concerns[.]" NATO may never admit Ukraine. But Russia doesn't get a veto. And bringing Ukraine up to standards for NATO admission makes Ukraine a harder target whether or not it ultimately joins NATO.

Throwing Ukraine just a little under the bus risks Ukrainians beginning to think that resistance is futile. We saw in Afghanistan how allies denied hope of American help can quickly collapse in the face of determined aggressors.

And if we count on Ukrainians to wage an insurgency after losing lots of territory, abandoning Ukraine while it tries to hold its independence is sure to undermine Ukrainian morale and incentive to resist.

Don't let Russia win in Ukraine without a fight. Russia requires a bloodless win.

Networked Quantity Has a Quality All Its Own

Building more of our expensive submarines, carriers, and multi-mission surface warships may not be the way to go to defeat China at sea. Perhaps a dramatically larger networked fleet is needed.

Maybe more of our big ships are the key to sea control in a hard battle against another sea power. But what if they aren't?

In a world where the large and the complex are either too expensive to generate en masse or potentially too vulnerable to put at risk, “the small, the agile, and the many” has the potential to define the future of Navy formations.

The Navy needs formations composed of dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of unmanned vehicles above, below, and on the ocean surface. It needs to build collaborating, autonomous formations, not a collection of platforms.

As you might expect because I wrote about this over twenty years ago, I agree:

Under the conditions of today’s platform-centric warfare, dispersal weakens a force and makes it slow to respond and mount a concentrated attack. In order to concentrate effect in an attack with platforms, forces need to be collocated or, if dispersed, near the enemy (or collocated with or near the friendly asset to be defended). Aircraft carriers overcome this problem of delivering massed effect by collocating a powerful air wing on a mobile airfield that, on its own, can deliver strong blows. ...

According to the United States Navy, the basic advantage of network-centric warfare is that the Navy will be able to deploy widely dispersed units that mass effect in a timely manner without needing to mass the components themselves, as platform-centric warfare requires, for coordinated action. Superior surveillance, communications, mobility, and weapons effectiveness and range will allow this geographic dispersal of units. ...

The [National Defense Panel] recommended accelerating network-centric operations linking sensors and weapons generally and, for the Navy specifically, recommended "small-signature ships capable of providing sustained long-range, precision firepower." The panel also recommended a new smaller carrier (CVX) for short take off/vertical landing (STO/VL) aircraft and various unmanned aerial vehicles, including weaponized versions. Clearly, a networked Navy built from scratch would look far different from our current Navy which has evolved over time with overlapping assumptions and new technologies governing ship design over a generation or two.

My focus was on the danger of building the Ford-class carrier and putting so much of our fleet power into a few vulnerable assets. I wanted cheaper, dispersed assets that we could afford to lose and still win the sea control battle.

At the time, autonomous ships, subs, and aircraft were not on my radar screen to get numbers. Modularized auxiliary cruisers were. But autonomous assets make my hopes for network-centric dispersed assets more effective. 

Not that carriers are useless. But their value is in power projection--or after sea control is won to exploit the control.

Let's get moving on that Plan B. You never know when an enemy attack will make our Plan B the only plan we have left.

Russia's Relationship With China is "Tricky"?

The idea that Russia doesn't fear China because of Russian military superiority is nuts.

I nearly spewed my coffee over my computer screen: 

Russia’s policymakers and society do not fear China in the way that many countries in the West and China’s neighbourhood do. This might be thanks to Russia’s still-significant military superiority, or the presence of some residual beliefs from Soviet times, when the state media routinely portrayed China as a ‘younger brother’ and a less developed country.

Unless you count military power as gross explosive force, which includes nukes, Russia does not have military superiority despite its loud boasting. There is a record of that kind of deceit.

Especially because Russia is concentrating it's small amount of effective conventional military power against Ukraine these days, while loudly proclaiming a non-existent NATO threat to invade Russia.

Which makes Russian military weakness even greater in its Far East where China's Century of Humiliation continues. Which is why Russia has practiced rushing troops to the Far East.

Despite that practice, Russia's only realistic hope of stopping a Chinese invasion to reclaim lost territory is the early use of nuclear weapons. Yet China's recent decision to dramatically expand its nuclear arsenal will have more utility in deterring Russian use of nukes than it will on America, I think.

And Russia's policymakers absolutely fear China. That's why Russia is appeasing China by accepting near-vassal status. 

Frenemies with temporary benefits is the best way to describe the relationship. "Tricky," indeed.

UPDATE: Russia doesn't see this, but yes:

The biggest real threat Russia faces is not from Eastern Europe, but from its eastern neighbor, China.

But Russia's mental health problems are our problem. And Russia's problem, really, given the threat from China.

Weekend Data Dump

I read that people are more attractive wearing a mask. Perhaps for your average dog-faced pony soldier, that is true. But I shall not deny the ladies my essence visage by wearing a mask. You're welcome.

It is an excellent point--do read it all--that the Thucydides Trap in part relies on fear of losing part of your coalition to the other side and not simply a power transition. I knew that. I'm abashed I did not point that out. I've addressed distance as lessening the trap. But I've pointed out America's alliance maintenance problem.

Indeed: "Russian forces controlled by the 8th Combined Arms Army ... have been in the Donbas region of Ukraine since 2014. The Kremlin has consistently denied that any of its military forces are there, however, attributing all military activities and capabilities in occupied Donbas to its DNR and LNR proxies. The West has accepted this fiction[.]" So-called hybrid warfare relies on this acceptance. 

FFS. Some people really are honored to be their victim. They can hear the quietest racist "dog whistle" but can't see jihadis when they figuratively scream "Allahu akbar" in our face.

You will hear stories that Chinese planes violate Taiwanese air space. Not true. Chinese warplanes enter Taiwan's air defense identification zone, which Taiwan defines to identify threats far from actual air space in time to react. China is a threat. But is not violating international law in this case.

How is that progressives can hear racist dog whistles everywhere but can't see jihadi terrorism when it figuratively screams "Allahu akbar! in their face?

I've long worried about this internal Israeli problem. 

Biden effed up the withdrawal from Afghanistan by thinking our allies would keep fighting without any sign we'd help them win. But Trump erred in thinking we could negotiate peace with an enemy that wanted total victory while we strove for stalemate. 

 

 

How America now helps Iran finance its hostile foreign policy.

"Holding hostages in a synagogue isn’t 'specifically threatening the Jewish community' [according to the FBI]? What, are they saying this guy threw a dart at a map? Of course he was specifically threatening the Jewish community. That’s why he chose a synagogue."

NBA Golden State Warriors owner Chamath Palihapitiya: "Let's go, Brandon Uighurs!" Via Instapundit.

The other navy: "The Coast Guard is in the midst of its largest shipbuilding period since World War II, the head of the service said during a Wednesday address."

I don't think China would "cut North Korea loose" because without Chinese involvement, a nuclear-armed North Korea might hate China as much as it hates America, Japan, and South Korea. The idea that territorial buffers are obsolete today is contradicted by Russia's obsession in Europe.

Is Ukraine right to worry that Biden could throw Ukraine under the bus for a "peace for our time" photo-op? "Western leaders at the negotiating table should remember that Ukrainians deserve to be able to plan their lives according to their dreams, not according to Mr. Putin’s imperialistic obsessions."

Could China get outposts behind the first island chain in the Pacific to thwart our plans to contain China's fleet? Possible. The outposts might not last long. But China just needs to delay American intervention to defeat Taiwan. 

I return his contempt: "Speaking Tuesday at Morehouse College and Clark Atlanta University, Biden uttered venomous, brutal accusations lacking factual basis." Let's go, Brandon. Tip to Instapundit.

China's "zero Covid" policy led China to (via Instapundit) close its ports. It will harm the rest of the world. Can China endure the collateral damage on itself? I hope our intelligence agencies study this "blockade" to note effects. Also, that's one way to clear up our port unloading backlog.

Yes, how did the Colleyville, Texas jihadi get into America with his "long criminal record"? How many more have gotten in over the last year? And when will they be ready to strike? Was Iran's "prediction" based on inside knowledge?

Executive summary: "To be sure, as a general principle we need to stand firm when dealing with Putin." But this time we should totally appease Putin and throw Ukraine under the bus.

At this point, getting the Omicron variant would be almost a relief. It's finally weak. But I'd still rather put it off until it is merely one type of a common cold. I don't think we're there yet.

Is it time to break the diplomatic "deadlock" with North Korea? It's taking more time than I hoped, but I think we can stick with "talk, talk. Die, die" without worrying about getting an agreement.

Mayor Adams tells wussy New Yorkers to stop being afraid in the mostly peaceful subways. Removing the perception of fear is a higher priority than removing the criminal source of fear.

After a jihadi attack, some amazingly worry more about the potential "backlash" than the actual "lash."

 

Finally, Communist China finally did something worthy of being cancelled. NBA? Hollywood? Anyone? Bueller? 

Huh: "Raisi insisted that Iran would not negotiate with the West until the 2018 sanctions were first lifted. ... Raisi had the support of the religious dictatorship in Iran as well as the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) for this desperate, 'all or nothing' negotiating strategy." Well, I hoped that attitude would save us from the first horrible deal.

Bullshit with end notes. Iran will either get nukes or get nukes and Western money. I choose not to pay Iran for their nuclear ambitions.

More on China's claim to have heat-seeking hypersonic missiles. More important, America is working on it, too. I mentioned the Chinese news a few weeks ago. Why it could be significant.

Strategery: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he wants NATO to reduce its presence in Eastern European countries that were once part of the Soviet bloc but his actions are achieving the opposite, said NATO’s chief." Bravo. #WhyRussiaCantHaveNiceThings

Given its record, I'm worried about the Navy new major ship design concept. But if technology is to evolve instead of leap, that's good. And really, we already paid for some of the technology. The answer to my question is 6-1/2 years.

Germany helped Russia improve their military. And other NATO countries did, too. Germany learned nothing the first time. But at least then Germany was buying time to get ready for war. Now it is the opposite. What is Germany's major malfunction?

I think the woke storm troopers of the Democratic Party are honestly shocked that they couldn't punish America endlessly without eventually getting a hostile reaction. Tip to Instapundit.

Well, Russia under Putin is a hostile band of lying barbarians these days.

The sources of Kazakhstan's recent unrest remain in place. This was not a coup that could be ended by arresting the coup leader.

Fine. But you can't then tell us what schools to fund with our tax dollars. That's a fair trade. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Is the Tonga huge volcano explosion over or the sign of bigger eruptions to come?

Cambodia pledges to be carbon neutral by 2050. Yeah, that's Cambodia's biggest problem. Unless this is a scam to attract Western money. In which case, bravo. 

Competence. Via Instapundit.

Senators from both parties went to Ukraine to pledge support for Ukraine in the face of Russian threats.

Iran struck the UAE via Iran's Houthi hand puppets. It is highly unlikely that the Houthi attacked. But Iran ordered them to take the blame. The Houthi are losing in Yemen.

If Israel attacks Iran's nuclear infrastructure, it would be good to have a shield against Iranian missiles: "Israel said Tuesday it has successfully tested a system designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside the earth's atmosphere."

Seriously, what is Germany's major malfunction? Britain shipped anti-tank weapons to Ukraine around German air space to avoid Germany's opposition to helping Ukraine. Denials all around. But Britain knew not to ask.

There is no need to avoid giving Russia a pretext to invade Ukraine because Russia will manufacture one regardless of reality.

The fruits of Anschluss: "Russian military forces and hardware began arriving in ex-Soviet Belarus for joint drills starting in February, Minsk said on Monday, amid soaring tensions between East and West over Ukraine." That's a problem.

The Marines aren't exclusively focused on sinking Chinese ships.

The Chinese foreign minister has quite the future in stand-up comedy. LOL: "China will not use its strength to 'bully' its smaller neighbours including the Philippines, its foreign minister said on Monday, as he highlighted the importance of settling disputes in the South China Sea peacefully."

Ef the Russians, who accuse "Ukrainian leadership of hatching plans to use force to reclaim control of the Russian-backed rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine." As if it would even be wrong for Ukraine to liberate territory Russia conquered.

People are tired of the oppressive pandemic theater that the Xi Jinping Flu has become. Like I said (figuratively, of course):

AOC somehow survived the end of net neutrality, January 6th, and now the Dread Omicron. Nice run, but we already know that climate change will kill her any year now. She's Walter Mitty, with Instagram.

Russia might install nuclear missiles close to America (via Instapundit)? What? Isn't their freaking Kraken enough? To be fair, who knows if Russia's massive nuclear ICBM arsenal even works?

Hey, you effed up. You trusted--and worshiped--him. Via Treacher.

This is why rule-of-law is necessary to prevent the tyranny of the majority. In unrelated news, 45% of Democrats would apparently make fine concentration camp guards.

Not shocking: "Iranian negotiators have left for Vienna to resume talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). According to Iran, much of the text for the terms to bring both sides into the deal has already been written." Duh.

Putin may miss the USSR, but worse for him he must miss the USSR's military: "The Russian military, three decades after the Soviet Union collapsed, still has less than 20 percent of the manpower the Soviets maintained and a population willing to tolerate some foreign military adventures as long as few, if any, Russian soldiers are killed."

China's advantage over Taiwan is increasing. Taiwan really needs to arm up before it is too late.

We'll see if this warning is still active by the time this post publishes: "The White House believes Russia could launch an invasion of Ukraine at any moment, press secretary Jen Psaki said Tuesday, warning that an 'extremely dangerous situation' is building along the Ukrainian border." The scope would be smaller given that the force is still judged to be 100,000 strong.

More about those artillery systems Taiwan bought from America.

Voices of intolerance and hate. This is our Left which speaks for Democrats. When will Democrats end their reign of error?

The problem with America "sitting out" Ukraine in order to conserve power to confront China is that if Russia eventually gains Ukraine, American power will need to be diverted to NATO to confront a larger and closer Russian threat. If Russia invades Ukraine, NATO need to help Ukrainians send body bags back to Russian mothers.

America is totally unprepared for war in Europe? True. But it is likely more true for Russia. But yeah, Russia must be resisted. If Russia attacks, bounce the ruble.

The FBI couldn't tell the truth about a successful ending to a terrorist hostage incident?? Via Instapundit.

The Navy may not be able to afford many amphibious warfare ships. Perhaps smaller APDs could bulk up the fleet, as I suggested in Proceedings.

Is Mexico headed for a major internal crisis of violence that destabilizes the state? Could be. But I expected that Obama might have his first foreign crisis there.

Help Ukraine kill Russian troops. 

Worst come to worst, that would be good: "American officials have told allies that the Pentagon and CIA would both support an armed insurgency." But for God's sake put one in charge and avoid the clusterfuck of our Syria efforts: "Syrian rebels we support sometimes fight each other depending on whether our CIA or Defense Department provide the support."

Biden lost our war in Afghanistan. So naturally it is time to release even the most dangerous prisoners. We stopped fighting. Our jihadi enemies have not. What could possibly go wrong? Via Instapundit.

Fixed databases are a monument to the stupidity of man: "The gunman who took four people hostage at a Texas synagogue in a 10-hour standoff that ended in his death was checked against law enforcement databases before entering the U.S. but raised no red flags, the White House said."

Greece draws in France to check Turkey while improving Greek air power with French Rafale planes.

The United States announced an additional $200 million in military aid to Ukraine. 

I used to dislike teacher unions. After what they did to our children during the pandemic, I hate them and want them disbanded. With any luck, most teachers share my disgust (via Instapundit).

I recently mentioned that I wanted to stop addressing domestic political issues. But the opposition is too insane to do that. Oh, my optimism five years ago was almost adorable.

We'll see if Russia's Baltic fleet amphibious ships go to the Black Sea. And if so, would Russia try for Odessa? Quite possible. I don't know what Putin would risk. Or how badly he could ef things up. It might be a bridge too far if Ukraine resists and counterattacks. Could they sail to the Sea of Azov to envelope Mariupol in concert with an overland assault? Maybe the ships are heading for Syria.

It might be wise to review what Russian artillery is capable of. Video analysis at the post.

The FBI is coasting on reputation. I'm honestly amazed jihadis haven't hit us hard given what it has become. How many of the top levels need to be fired before we get to the professionals? Tip to Instapundit.

FFS. It's not rocket science.

The Philippines continues rearming. Which might come in handy. 

Biden was hidden from voters during 2020. But now he is trotted out to frighten allies and reassure enemies. And to set a blurry red line. He takes a harder line with Sinema and Manchin than he does with Putin. Tips to Instapundit.

Well yes, NATO is valuable today. Which means it was useful in the past despite critics, given it would be difficult to re-form now for its original mission.

Moving Indonesia's capital.

Russia just wants to see Africa burn.

Ostpolitik 2.0: "Germany has sought to placate Russia by taking some of the West’s most powerful deterrents off the table." If this cripples NATO, America and Europeans will suffer.

One thing I will say about the Biden administration's claim that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely. If Russia doesn't attack, or makes a small attack, the administration can claim it deterred Russia. It might even be correct.

Until solar, wind, and Unicorn farts reach their full potential, Europeans can thank American natural gas for their winter energy problem not being worse than it is.

Consequences: "The United States will send more troops to eastern European NATO members, including Poland or Romania, if Russian President Vladimir Putin moves forward with an invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden said Wednesday." I always wanted to keep a corps in Europe, as I argued in Military Review (pp.15-20). But a heavy one, now.

Sure, that's convenient. But with a death warrant you get TSA preclearance!

How long will Russia risk vassal status? "China would bend Russia to its will after defeating the United States. It has begun its preparatory work already ..." What is Putin's major malfunction?

The U.S. will allow NATO Baltic states to send missiles to Ukraine. I hope we replace them quickly.

The United States sent a signal to Russia by disclosing that one of our SSGNs is in the Mediterranean Sea. They can carry 154 conventional cruise missiles. The signal is only potentially useful if Russia intends a major invasion.

More on the Russian amphibious warfare ship deployment. Can Ukraine sink them? An amphibious landing is high risk. How many dead Russians washing ashore does Putin want to risk being televised? Or is it a feint to tie down Ukrainian forces on the coast?

It's almost as if the Biden strategy for 2022 elections was to stand back and let a friendly media be the wind beneath Democrats wings. Hey, it worked before.

While we need to face communist China as it is now, keep in mind that modernization and prosperity haven't turned China into a democracy--yet. Nobody said the CCP would welcome democracy. The question is whether forces the CCP can't resist have been created.

Well: "Russia is sending troops from the country’s far east to Belarus for major war games, officials said Tuesday[.]" Did Russia think this through? Or did its rulers just drink vodka until it made sense?

From the "well, duh" files (cross-indexed to "news from 2013"): "The U.S. Air Force needs to spend more to protect its Pacific bases from Chinese missiles, Secretary Frank Kendall said Wednesday."

The problem is that Democratic Party leadership is too much in touch with the tiny Twitter activist class. Via Instapundit.

It's justice delayed. I'm hoping it isn't justice denied. 

I ordered the Covid tests. I paid for them already so why not have them just in case? Winter shipping to Michigan might be a problem. Of course, that assumes the tests are mailed before June, I suppose.

Biden said in his press conference that the Republicans might win in the November elections if Congress doesn't pass its Democratic Party voting changes. To be fair, the effort worked the last time.

Teachers have a point that public schools are, at least in part, supposed to teach children what our society needs them to know. But that used to be teaching the children of immigrants how to be Americans. Now public schools teach kids how to be part of the tiny Twitter woke society and to be ashamed of America. Big difference. So yeah, ef them and the unions they rode in on.

Well, Netflix will raise their prices again. I'd vowed to dump them if they did that. In some good timing I'd just read a what's coming in February list and saw zero things I'm interested in. But I won't cancel. I'll dial it down to the basic plan. I'll hold the line there until it reaches my current bill and then bail out.

Biden is returning America to those thrilling days of yesterday when "unbelievably small" American actions would deter aggressors.

Break it up for parts.

Aggressor Squadron stealth.

Preparations for invasion or bolstering the bluff?

True: "Putin will only engage in small, low-cost wars that are likely to yield a limited number of Russian casualties." But smaller objectives are possible. Or Putin could ef up. And sometimes stuff happens. Also, if Ukraine isn't moving toward the West, Putin will drag it toward Russia.

To me it seems as if the European Union is failing to mobilize what it has--economic power--to block Russia because the proto-imperial state pines for political and military power in order to strip away the prefix.

Excellent video on Russian military preparations and options.

How ... feudal: "[Russia's small wars] are financed by members of Putin’s inner circle. They don’t come directly out of state budgets. ... The oligarchs who funded the annexation of Crimea, for example, received a multibillion-dollar contract to build a bridge connecting that peninsula over the Kerch Strait to Russia." This means of finance requires short and/or small victorious wars.Which the Russians hope their nuclear weapons can enforce after achieving gains.

The Army tested an F-35 as a forward observer for artillery. It's a Project Convergence thing. Good.

The Walrus Deception. Not a James Patterson book. Tip to Instapundit.

Spoiler alert: It's all about Xi's power and not about fighting corruption: "China has vowed to ramp up its regulatory crackdown and show "no mercy" against corruption as the ruling Communist Party gears up for a key meeting that could secure President Xi Jinping a third term."

Perhaps America should be sending older tanks from storage to our new NATO allies, who then send old Soviet tanks to Ukraine; while producing new ones for our troops who lack the most up-to-date ones. Tanks in storage to new NATO allies; those old Soviet tanks to Ukraine; new tanks to U.S. troops; older replaced U.S. tanks to storage. Hopefully this would help sustain the Ukrainians in a longer war.

Biden is certainly doing things consistent with how somebody under Putin's control would act. "Consistent with" is the term of art for implying something that doesn't exist, isn't it?

Pelosi's January 6th committee is acting in an unconstitutional manner by being a quasi-executive body. And a shady mafia-style body, too. Via Instapundit.

If Space Force doesn't protect American orbiting and Moon-based assets, what's the point of having a Space Force?! I don't expect NASA to do the job. And if not, Elon Musk may do it himself with his massive swarm of satellites that could double as projectiles.

Another fire at a Kuwaiti oil facility? No way this isn't Iran: "A fire erupted at a Kuwait refinery: "This is the second fire to erupt at the Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery in as little as three months." I pretty much assume Iran is responsible."

Look, their "parliament" wouldn't do this without orders from Putin: "Russia's parliament will hold consultations next week on an idea to appeal to President Vladimir Putin to recognise two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent states, the chamber's speaker said on Friday."

The Air Force wants to be able to deploy air wings faster: "Air Combat Command has designated five units to serve as “lead wings” as the Air Force looks to overhaul its force generation model and pivot to strategic competition with China and Russia."

I certainly hope we provide overwatch, by this point: "A guided-missile destroyer steamed past two disputed island chains in the South China Sea this week, provoking demands from China’s military that the U.S. cease its freedom-of-navigation patrols in the region[, ... 'otherwise it will bear the serious consequences of unforeseen events[.]'"

Was Biden's "incursion" gaffe actually an inadvertent revelation that the fix is in for a Russian "minor" incursion that America will accept? Pelosi would have started impeachment again if Trump had done it. Tip to Instapundit. 

No! Way! But the FBI assured us his target motive was a mystery! How did that man even get into America?

If it doesn't move unless a human moves it, it isn't a clock. A clock implies relentless advance you can't stop. Give it a rest, guys. Via Treacher.

It would be better to put them in our national stockpile: "the White House said Wednesday it will make available 400 million N95 masks to Americans at no cost." There are costs. Past to pay for them. And in the future in another pandemic.

I believe the proper response is to tell them to ef themselves: "NATO rejected on Friday Russian demands to withdraw its forces from Romania and Bulgaria[.]" Which Russia is used to under Putin.

The Silent Eagle. I like having a Plan B to replace losses of our stealth fighters in war. But it can't compete with the F-35 for sales.

Why is Putin wetting his pantskies over Ukraine? "'We have nowhere to retreat', Putin said. 'They have taken it to the point where we simply must tell them: "Stop!"'"

That's nice to know: "[THAAD] intercepted a ballistic missile on Monday during a deadly attack by Houthi militants in Abu Dhabi, marking the system’s first known use in a military operation[.]" I assume that was an Iranian missile, BTW. I can only wish that the world yawned as hard if Ukraine was regularly flinging missiles at Russian bases in Russian-occupied Crimea.

I'm not sure why we should negotiate any new deals with Russia regarding Ukraine. We already had a perfectly good one in 1994, which Putin shredded.

In space, no one can hear Roscosmos scream?

As we wonder whether Russia will invade Ukraine, Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues at a low roar in the Donbas.

And if Iran wouldn't get mad, Biden might do it: "A coalition of Republican lawmakers is pressuring the Biden administration to redesignate the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels as a terror group following this week’s large-scale attack on the United Arab Emirates." Biden removed the designation last year. Via Instapundit.

I'd think that Putin's argument that Russia won't have influence in Ukraine if it joins NATO is undermined by the record of Germany, whether now (for example) or its West Germany predecessor.

If enemies don't think their time arrived with the election of Biden or the skedaddle debacle in Afghanistan, they know it now: "To watch Biden at the lectern was to experience shock and dismay interspersed with moments of alarm and dark humor. No wonder he hides from the media."

Could Russia's show of force and belligerence just be shielding an effort in the Donbas to expand Russian territory with only locals and mercenaries doing the dying?

If the Taliban are so big on Allah saving them, let him: "Afghanistan under the Taliban may teeter under the brink of a systematic collapse." I'd send aid to countries to the north and west of Afghanistan to help refugees fleeing collapse. But let the Pushtun Taliban run to Pakistan and let Pakistan and China pay for that. And if our former allies return to power? Help them.

LOL!

Russia is weaker than the USSR and further east; and China is much stronger. I guarantee that America will ride to the rescue in Europe more than Europe will ride to the rescue in Asia. NATO promised in 2014 to spend more (2% of GDP) on defense by 2024 to handle that reality. How's that going?

The British F-35B that sank in the Mediterranean may have been recovered. 

If Russia just wants to wreck Ukraine's military, does it have enough long-range precision weapons to do the job without invading?

The Pentagon doesn't care about left-wing or Islamist extremism in the ranks. Some extremism is more deplorable than others, comrades.

Bounce the ruble. 

Good. But restock their armories quickly: "Estonia will provide Javelin anti-armor missiles, while Lithuania and Latvia will provide Stinger anti-aircraft missiles [to Ukraine.]" 

As I noted long ago, Russian aggression against Ukraine kills the motivation for stopping nuclear proliferation. And I warned about the problem much earlier. 

Another reminder that America's shipbuilding and ship repair capacity has eroded dangerously. Start recruiting those young men increasingly shunned by America's increasingly useless and counterproductive colleges for the skilled jobs necessary to fix that.

A "global" exercise of floating crap. Russia's navy is a sad version of the Soviet fleet. Which is actually good for Russia because Russia basically needs SSBNs and a coast guard+. 

Via Instapundit: "Ted Cruz jabbed actor Tom Hanks after the latter narrated a video produced by Joe Biden’s Presidential Inaugural Committee celebrating his first year in office saying, 'The Simpsons did it first!'"

 

If the court ruling to ban Covid-19 vaccination requirements for military personnel holds, this addresses my comments that military personnel are only required to obey lawful orders from their chain of command. Which I didn't think was necessarily settled.

Good: "Intel is investing $20 billion into a new semiconductor manufacturing “mega-site” in Ohio[.]" Via Instapundit. I went without a car for over three months last year because of the chip shortage. 

It must be very comforting to leftist to know that every political opponent is a Nazi, neo-Confederate, or white nationalist. 

I certainly want Russia to side with the West against China. And I think it is in Russia's long-term interest, too. But throwing Ukraine under the bus is a poor foundation for achieving that.

Wheeled artillery.

Does Russia already have a Ukrainian puppet selected, if Russia invades? Um, duh?

If the jihadis breached the perimeter of the prison and killed many Syrian Kurds, why isn't a hail of JDAMs the answer to these obvious combatants conveniently massed for us?

You'd think this is good news, but honestly I don't think she'd let mere unpopularity stop her. Via Instapundit.

The Russians claim they don't plan to invade Ukraine notwithstanding their massed troops. But keep in mind that Russia always magically stops an enemy attack in hours and kicks in the large counter-offensive soon after. Russia lies even above what you expect from any government.

Could we refuse to let Ukraine into NATO on the condition that Russia permanently pull its troops back and end all hostile actions toward Ukraine? No. Rather than justifying NATO membership because Russia can't keep that promise, Western countries would refuse to admit--over Russian denials--that Russia violated their promises. 

Speaking of ADIZ, China sent 39 planes: "Taiwan on Sunday reported the largest incursion since October by China's air force in its air defence zone[.]" To my surprise, the article distinguishes between air space and ADIZ. The Chinese basically interdicted Taiwan's Pratas Island.

From the "Well that's different!" files.

I must say that to this day I resent that Apple put that U2 album on my iPhone that I can't delete.

Twitter hashtag campaigns mean little unless Russia invades Ukraine and we get #BodyBagsFlowingHomeToRussia. When you twitter a king, kill him.

Nonsense. Drone strikes are nothing new in the issue of air power targeting, except that with more loiter time the decisions are probably better. Remember, lawful strikes do not require zero civilian deaths. It's really a pretty stupid op-ed.