Same As the Old Taliban

I guess we are finally going to get past the silly Taliban 2.0 moment.

This was just a stupid hope held by people eager to downplay the effects of a Taliban victory over America: 

The Taliban swept across Afghanistan claiming to be the honest and legitimate voice of the people, presenting themselves as a changed outfit and offering amnesty to opponents and vague promises of inclusivity and a commitment to allow women to study and work.

 

 

So spare me your fake shock at the wholly predictable reality: 

But in the weeks since the Taliban once again took control, growing evidence points to a broad and sometimes brutal crackdown as they settle old scores, stamp out opposition and try to force many Afghans to adhere to their strict interpretation of Islam.

And to add insult to injury, after years of claiming how awful America is, human rights activists admit America achieved something good for Afghans until the Biden skedaddle debacle: 

"The current situation in Afghanistan is a moment of reckoning — a moment when the human rights gains that the Afghan people have built over two decades is at risk of collapse," the [Amnesty International] report says.

Yeah, nice to know now, you twits.

But seriously, human rights in Afghanistan are at risk? Are these nimrods that dense?

Dazed and Confused

Biden has thrown away America's power to deter enemies in an amazingly short period of time. And it isn't just the needless defeat in Afghanistan. There is a growing reputation for incompetence across a range of problems. What will be the price of restoring that power needed to maintain the peace?

Yes, Biden caused this problem:

Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the Chinese Communist apparat, the Iranian theocrats, the lunatic North Koreans — are now pondering whether Biden’s reckless laxity is an aberration. Or is it now characteristic of his administration? Or does it even signal a new weaker and confused America that offers enemies strategic openings?

Like the would-be felon, or the potential border crosser, our enemies know the United States has the power to deter unwanted behavior, given its vast military, huge economy, and global culture.

But they may have contempt that with such strength comes such perceived confusion. And thus, in the manner of an emboldened criminal, or migrant, they try something that they would otherwise not.

In sum, deterrence at home and abroad is now dangerously lost. And it will be even scarier trying to recover what was so rashly and foolishly thrown away.

Yes, restoring our power of deterrence could be expensive if enemies decide to test our willingness to fight.

 

But new leadership can do wonders if we can avoid war while enemies hope we are too weak willed to stop them.

Between Deterrence and Disaster in the Baltic States

Walking into a NATO Baltic states trap does not restore American credibility.

Is this the solution to America's Afghanistan-shaken credibility?

Particularly in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the concerns generated over American credibility, only a consistent U.S. military presence in each of the Baltic states can convincingly reassure allies that Washington has their back while also signaling to Putin the rock-solid American commitment to NATO. The seemingly rushed, chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan has caused some American allies in Europe to question Washington’s commitment to NATO.

The author isn't proposing a major force--just a tripwire. While I am not against the proposal to permanently station small American combat units there, I worry that the commitment could escalate to the point of being counterproductive.

We have to be careful in the Baltic states. Enough American (or other NATO) forces in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania large enough to slow down the Russians if they invade is a mistake. If NATO forces reach that level, the obvious Russian response is to drive through the Suwalki Gap to link up with its Kaliningrad exclave to isolate the NATO forces further north and turn the Baltic states into a kill sack.

To that end, Russia is improving its logistics and support capabilities in Belarus to carry out such an offensive.

Indeed, the presence of such a force could make the Russians think NATO is a looming threat to St. Petersburg. That might tempt Russia to launch an offensive to "preemptively" isolate and destroy the best NATO forces.

What I would like is to restore the armored cavalry regiment to the United States Army and put a battalion-sized task force with regimental assets parceled out in each of the Baltic states, with the three NATO rotational battalions providing a reserve force to each task force. 

These units would fall back to slow the Russians down; inflict losses on the Russian with air and missile power; and allow our Baltic state allies to fall back into national redoubts, retreat to help hold the Suwalki Gap, or disperse to operate as irregulars and guerillas with NATO special forces to harass the Russia occupiers until NATO can counterattack. 

Poland would hold the right flank against Russian forces operating in Belarus.

The major NATO counterattack force to restore Baltic state independence would gather in Poland, built around American units stationed and moved there. Some Polish units would contribute and other NATO forces would have to be moved east, too. With improved logistics to actually fight in the east.

Ideally, the Germans would provide the core ground force to defeat the Russian forces in the Russian Kaliningrad exclave. It would occupy the territory or reduce the Russian perimeter to a small enough size to defang the Russian offensive threat in order to protect the left flank of the NATO drive north.

And as one of my older posts linked above reminded me, use NATO infrastructure funds to convert Baltic state railroads to Western gauge rather than Russian gauge to add to Russian logistics problems.

Until the Russians come to their senses and shift their focus to defending their Far East from for-now dormant Chinese territorial claims, you never can tell what the paranoid Russians will do.

Dodging Reality in the Woketrix

The blue pill delusions of the left when it comes to the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle is stunning in its brazen defiance of reality.

The Biden administration failed to spin the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle evacuation as representative of a glorious victory in the war. But that did not deter Biden's people. Now they want us to believe that the obvious humiliating defeat is actually victory.

The Biden administration says not to believe your lying eyes about what it says is the glorious victory of the Grandfatherland in forging a partnership with the new and improved Taliban! 

The White House spin is absurd, verging on the insane. The Taliban are back in control, with the help of al-Qaeda and other extremist groups. They have captured billions of dollars’ worth of high-tech American hardware. And they have reversed two decades of U.S. military, counterinsurgency, and state-building efforts that cost the American taxpayer hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars, not to mention thousands of lives. 

What is wrong with Democrats (quoting an article)?

The surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban is the result of an extreme case of collective amnesia and self-delusion that continues to undermine the international response to the unfolding catastrophe there. Motivated by the desire to justify that surrender and rationalise the humiliating retreat from Kabul, western military and political leaders have forgotten who it was we fought in Afghanistan and Pakistan for two decades.

They have conjured an Afghan enemy we would prefer to have lost to, rather than the one that is thrusting the Afghan people into hell and poses a threat to all civilised peoples.

One British general recently described the victorious jihadists who seized Kabul last month merely as “country boys” who “happen to live by a code of honour”. He rebuked a journalist who dared to describe them as the enemy.

Others now talk about “Taliban 2.0”, as if it’s a company after a brand refresh — a different entity, somehow, from the one that harboured al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden as he plotted the mass murder of 2,977 innocents on US soil 20 years ago.

And yes (back to the first article):

The U.S. military could have maintained a small footprint in Afghanistan with minimal risk. Instead, our elected leaders fell prey to a false binary, promoted by neo-isolationists in recent years, that America either had to fight a "forever war" or quit the theater.

But don't think the administration matrix of delusions can't get worse (quoting an article):

Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Wednesday it's "possible" the United States could work with the Taliban in operations against the Islamic State affiliate based in Afghanistan, but cautioned that the "ruthless" group may not change its ways.

But no worries. The grown ups of the reality-based community are back in charge, restoring our relations abroad. They really believed all they had to do was not send mean tweets.

Forever Grand?

Perhaps the world should work with a little more sense of urgency on decoupling from China in its critical supply chains before the after shocks of serious problems in China shake us, too. And neighbors should check ammo and double the guards.

I've long wondered how long China could rise and what would happen when it stops rising:

I've had my doubts about the inevitability of China's growth that so many say will supplant us as the dominant power.

So what happens when there is a systemic crisis in China? How do we predict what happens to China, then? I say we may not have to predict which outcome takes place. In a continent-sized country, all of the above could be the result.

And don't worry about whether the Arab Spring will or should spread to China. China will progress on their own timetable. So far discontent is more focused on local rulers and the central government is seen as a source of redress for grievances. The mountains are high and the emperor is far. If the Chinese people start to wonder whether their rulers in Peking are part of the problem of lack of freedom and rampant corruption--and can't produce the economic growth in the quantity and quality expected--then perhaps spring will come to China.

And now with the Evergrande financial rumblings, which I mentioned in the last data dump, signs of ... dislocation ... are evident. But is it evidence of deeper problems? There is hope and danger for a China like this: 

The regime which rules China now is outwardly strong but inwardly weak. Under Xi’s over-confident leadership, China is set on a collision course with an America awakened from complacency. He is blind to the reactions that China’s actions have provoked from the world’s strongest power and its allies. In domestic affairs, economic and social change without political reform have created economic, moral, social, and cultural problems that this totalitarian regime cannot solve, only intensify. Perforce, it relies not on trust but on control. This control has been greatly reinforced by the application of advanced technologies. Yet the regime is fearful: It fears truth, it fears freedom, and it fears the people it rules.

Is there really a majority within the upper reaches of the Chinese Communist Party that thinks a constitutional democracy as the only salvation for China? Will American pressure push China to overthrow Xi Jinping to get that democracy? That seems too good to be true. 

But if it is true, do the minority who follow Xi control and point the barrels of the guns? Does the pro-Xi faction in the CCP fire them at domestic opponents or at foreign countries to try to use nationalism to rally the country around CCP rule?

And if the guns don't follow party orders or if Xi doesn't force the barons of Chinese industry and finance to bend to his will and resolve problems to avoiding screwing the middle class, what else might happen? 

The decadence of today’s China poses multiple threats for Xi. Corruption, inequality and financial meltdowns can trigger social unrest and erode the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), given its promise of equality and justice. These problems — particularly elite corruption, which enriches rival factions — all undermine Xi’s personal hold on power.

Is the real threat a China that thinks it has peaked and needs to strike while the gap with its enemies is at its narrowest? 

A dissatisfied state has been building its power and expanding its geopolitical horizons. But then the country peaks, perhaps because its economy slows, perhaps because its own assertiveness provokes a coalition of determined rivals, or perhaps because both of these things happen at once. The future starts to look quite forbidding; a sense of imminent danger starts to replace a feeling of limitless possibility. In these circumstances, a revisionist power may act boldly, even aggressively, to grab what it can before it is too late.

Has China peaked?

But if China is tempted to strike because it has or is about to peak, I think Russia has more to worry about than anybody else:

I'm sure that the Chinese are aware that Russia is no friend of China and is simply appeasing China out of weakness to keep China from taking Russian territory that Russia took from China in the 19th century.

So maybe a conventionally weak and internationally isolated Russia would be a prime target for China in a short and glorious war that signals China's rise to great power status. A victory that would cement China's claims to the Russian Far East in a peace settlement even if China did not demand much of it at all to end hostilities.

Still, as we debate what course China will take, remember that as a continent-sized country in population, "all of the above" could be the answer:

With a state both cruel and failing economically, governing a continent-sized population with a history of fragmentation, I don't know why we need to guess which course the government of China will follow. The continent of China is big enough that it could follow all the possible paths.

Let's be careful out there. Adjust pucker factors accordingly. 

UPDATE: Xi Jinping has been promoting presumably loyal flag officers at a rapid pace, reflecting lessons of past CCP rulers:

Whether the same thing will happen again during Xi’s likely third term is worthy of note. Whoever controls the military will gain political domination. The CCP, after all, still strongly believes in Mao Zedong’s famous saying: “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.”

Well, political power grows out of who aims the gun, really. 

UPDATE: And the nationalism:

Chinese leader Xi Jinping paid respects at a solemn commemoration Thursday for those who died in the struggle to establish Communist Party rule, as he leads a national drive to reinforce patriotism and single-party authority.

It isn't love of China that Xi is reinforcing:

While building up a cult of personality, Xi has pushed a hardline on foreign policy and a crackdown on free speech and political opposition in the semi-autonomous city of Hong Kong.

Xi is reinforcing pride in sticking it to the foreigners and those who resist CCP rule--or even those who just look different. All in service to CCP rule. It is xenophobic nationalism. Which is way different than patriotism. 

UPDATE: China has peaked despite the eagerness of Chinese rulers to stake out dominance:

But if Beijing looks to be in a hurry, that’s because its rise is almost over. China’s multidecade ascent was aided by strong tailwinds that have now become headwinds. China’s government is concealing a serious economic slowdown and sliding back into brittle totalitarianism. The country is suffering severe resource scarcity and faces the worst peacetime demographic collapse in history. Not least, China is losing access to the welcoming world that enabled its advance.

Welcome to the age of “peak China.” Beijing is a strong revisionist power that wants to remake the world, but its time to do so is already running out. This realization should not inspire complacency in Washington—just the opposite. Once-rising powers frequently become aggressive when their fortunes fade and their enemies multiply. China is tracing an arc that often ends in tragedy: a dizzying rise followed by the specter of a hard fall.

As I advised, check ammo and double the guards.

The Sainted International Community

When you mix democracies with thug states in one international body, the body tends to be corrupted by the thugs rather than uplifted by the democracies.

How ... even handed of him: 

UN chief urges U.S. and China to fix "dysfunctional relationship" to avoid new Cold War[.]

I'm sure we can both find room to give in our disagreements, as the UN hopes. 

China wants to:

--Eliminate Uighurs, 

--Enslave Hong Kongers, 

--Erase Tibetan culture, 

--Seize Indian territory, 

--Keep North Korea as their little pet nuclear psycho, 

--Take Japanese territory, 

--Own and control the South China Sea, 

--Prevent Hollywood from producing unapproved entertainment,

--Avoid responsibility for the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 pandemic that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan where a Chinese biological lab does work, 

--Flood America with deadly Fentanyl, 

--Oppress all Chinese with a Social Credit score,

--Conduct unopposed espionage against the West, 

--Maintain trade deals meant for a poor China that still benefit China, 

--and invade and crush Taiwan.

Did I miss something major?

America, on the other hand, wants China to continue to peacefully prosper in the system America designed, yet stop doing those other things. 

Surely we can split the difference to have a functional relationship that avoids a cold war, eh?

In Euroworld, Everything is About the EU

The European Union sees everything through the lens of erasing the prefix from their proto-imperial project.

Oh please: 

The Aukus nuclear submarine alliance between the US, Australia and the UK will have lasting implications for Nato. Nato won’t be disbanded, but it will play a more peripheral role in the future.

The Eurocrats hope everything means the weakening of NATO. As long as Russia is a threat, Europe needs NATO. And the AUKUS is about dealing with China--not punishing Europeans. The EU always wants NATO to play a more peripheral role in Europe.

Denmark isn't going along with France's EU power play:

Denmark's prime minister has pledged to resist Emmanuel Macron's proposals for an EU military force, stating that she will "go up against those who try to undermine transatlantic cooperation".

Mette Frederiksen warned that plans for a "stronger Europe" must not come "at the expense of strong transatlantic cooperation”.

Her intervention came after France attempted to use the fallout over the Aukus defence pact between Australia, Britain and the US to bolster its demands for a new EU military force.

The simple fact is that the dramatic rise of China's threats and France's failures to advance the sub contract led Australia to choose better subs designed by the British with American assistance.

And the AUKUS deal is about much more than subs. 

Nor was the deal anywhere nearly as big as France claims, which explains their ease of turning to exploiting the submarine project cancellation to advance its EU interests.

But what really gives me hope is that apparently even the Biden administration doesn't trust the EU:

US considers France and the EU unreliable with respect to China because of their special relationships.

The apparent answer to the question of whether Biden can salvage his "honeymoon" with Europe falls apart when you remember there is a difference between political Europe and geographic Europe. Relations with individual European states can certainly be improved even if relations with the EU are doomed.

Remember, France sees itself as steering the EU. And the EU is a potential threat to America and European freedom. The EU doesn't give a damn about defending Europe--it wants power.

If even Biden refuses to strengthen the EU at the expense of NATO, NATO will continue to defend Europe from Russia's paranoid aggression despite EU wishes to be the European Empire.

At the Intersection of Inattention and Beirut

Is America willing to have soldiers die to achieve missions in eastern Syria? I've been asking that for several years.

Excellent point:

It is long past time for President Joe Biden’s administration to figure out what exactly American troops in Syria need to accomplish and how they can leave without leaving Kurdish allies on the ground to be slaughtered. As long as the mission drifts aimlessly, there is a very real risk that U.S. troops could be drawn into a catastrophic situation, such as the 2017 ambush in Niger that left four brave American soldiers dead, or the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 service members. 

It is a point I've made for a while, including recently:

America has no more than a thousand troops in Syria along with allied troops who support local friends. Are we willing to fight and die in Syria? After our Afghanistan skedaddle debacle it is more urgent to answer that question. 

And as I observed in another post:

I was uncomfortable with American troops in eastern Syria post-ISIL caliphate mission without an idea of what they would do despite our interest in protecting the Kurds who fought with us, our interest in blocking Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah, and our interest in preventing eastern Syria from being a sanctuary for jihadis to threaten Iraq.

I was uncomfortable because we could face an attack that leads to a large loss of American lives that prompts a rapid retreat and defeat that encourages enemies. See the Marines Beirut Barracks bombing and the Battle of Mogadishu for examples of that worry. 

We aren't trying to overthrow Assad, which means he is free to take the initiative and come after our troops.

We have real objectives in eastern Syria. Keeping ISIL down (assuming they don't shift to Afghanistan now), screening Iraq from jihadi infiltration, interfering with Iran's efforts to embed in Syria, and protecting Kurds are interests. 

But unless we are told why our troops should die to achieve those things, the first time we suffer sizable casualties there we will see calls for immediate withdrawal. And making the arguments will be too late.

UPDATE: Here we go:

Syria's foreign minister on Monday vowed to drive U.S. troops out of his country if they do not leave voluntarily.

But it will be a "surprise" when the Syrians kill a lot of American troops to achieve that objective.

Weekend Data Dump

Well, Assad won on that front so Jordan is just recognizing reality: "Syria’s defense minister met Sunday with Jordan's army chief in Amman after Syrian troops captured several rebel-held areas near Jordan’s border, state media reported." Remember when Jordan was the rear area of the Southern Front?

Bad personal data security. 

Well sure, the enclosed Mediterranean Sea is a crucial waterway. And yes, powers on the littorals could make it A2/AD Hell for American warships there. But what power is going to do that to us? Russia? Please. NATO has many more options to deploy A2/AD assets in the littorals to make Russian life Hell. If NATO allies can't control the Mediterranean Sea against Russia's assets there without American help, NATO has real problems.

In an age of networked surveillance and weapons, why on Earth would China want an "arsenal ship"? It's just another high-value platform-centric asset. I didn't worry about them before--or like them for America --and can't say I worry about them now. I say spread the missiles out on modularized auxiliary cruisers if we want something like that.

Is PLA troop morale low? Could be. I always say don't just look at the shiny weapons. It's darn sporting of our military to try and lower our own morale to help the Chinese out. Perhaps we shouldn't do that.

Belated Science! "Eighteen months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the medical journal The Lancet has finally decided to publish a letter warning of the dangers of dismissing a hypothesis, in this case the lab-leak theory, before scientists test it."

Acceptable African-American collateral damage in the Democrats' war on "Covid".Why doesn't the disproportional impact inspire a national conversation on race?

Maybe the problems are Europe and China, and not America: "President Joe Biden campaigned on his foreign policy credentials, but he and Chinese President Xi Jinping are locked in a great power stalemate while Biden alienates long-standing European allies."

American forces rotating through Darwin, Australia will increase; and Australia will seek long-range cruise missiles. Barring Australian objections, the Air Force doesn't rule out sending any of its planes to rotational deployments in Australia.

The French managed to collaborate with Nazis, withdraw from NATO's military command despite Soviet threats, leak NATO information to the Serbs during conflict, and made illegal "oil for food" deals with Saddam Hussein. But this outrages the French: "The level of French fury towards the US and Australia over a canceled submarine contract has surprised officials in Washington." Well now we know. But the Biden administration thinks the French are being "overdramatic" and will get over it.

Iran continues to try to turn Iraq into a new Lebanon (or Syria or Yemen): "Karbala, the southern Iraqi city whose gold-domed shrines attract Shiite pilgrims from around the world, has become a flash point in Iraq’s internal conflict over the presence of dozens of powerful Iranian-backed militias. Instead of being known mostly as a place for quiet prayer and study, it has become a cauldron of competing armed groups and political interests." At least in Syria, Russians, Turks, Israelis, and Assad are trying to push the Iranians out. And at least the Saudis are trying to do something about Yemen. Heck, Israel might even try to deal with Lebanon. Will America and our allies keep helping Iraqis reduce Iran's dangerous influence? More Shia Iraqis have grown angry with Iran in recent years. Helping these Iraqis has to be part of the long campaign in Iraq.

The 82nd Airborne Division is getting new body armor as it is rolled out to combat units.

Ukraine's failed attempt to capture Russian war criminals by luring them to Belarus: "But according to CNN's Ukrainian sources, the failure was a serious blow to Ukrainian intelligence who they say had worked on hooking the Russian suspects for close to 18 months." Oh. I recall news out of Belarus that really confused me. I think I mentioned it in a data dump. Pity it failed.

Biden promised to restore trans-Atlantic relations after Trump's mean tweets wrecked them: "The French Embassy in Washington, D.C., canceled a gala [to celebrate 'the 240th anniversary of the 1781 Battle of the Capes, in which the French navy secured sea supply lanes to provide goods and weapons the Americans needed to win the Revolutionary War'] in protest of being pushed out of a multibillion-dollar deal between the United States and the United Kingdom to help Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines." To be fair, the French could hardly celebrate after recalling their ambassador back to France. Feel the healing.

It's almost as if Biden's relentless demonization of some of the unvaccinated is intended not to increase vaccination rates but to bolster the panic and self-esteem of his most nervous Covid porn supporters. Tip to Instapundit.

It's a comfort that Democrats are upset with a national election that the Russians actually rigged: "The State Department condemned the Russian government's crackdown on opposition groups during this weekend's parliamentary elections, saying in a statement Monday that the vote 'took place under conditions not conducive to free and fair proceedings.'" At least there wasn't partisan and manipulative broadcast media and social media, bolstered by the mass mailing of unsolicited ballots under the guise of coping with the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. Although (via Instapundit) Apple and Google did help out Putin. But baby steps, people. Baby steps.

I don't want Trump to run in 2024. As unfair as his loss in 2020 was, he will be too old by 2024 for me to be comfortable. While it would represent some justice, the presidency is too important to focus on that.  A Biden presidency is one meat sack too much to risk. And we haven't lived through Biden's Potemkin Presidency yet. What I hope Trump has established is a Republican willingness to fight against the media and a conviction that blue collar people and minorities are natural constituencies in the face of the woke agenda the Democrats have embraced. That would be a good legacy.

I read a writer I respect who said Bush 43's 9/11 comments on who is dividing America could easily be taken as Antifa types rather than Trump supporters. Why, the writer asked, would Trump supporters assume the words were directed at them and not at Antifa? Isn't that assumption a bit damning? The words in isolation do support that angle, I suppose. But Bush 43's tenor during the Trump years and since do not support that reading, in my opinion. I'd like to be wrong. And I will happily correct my impression if given reason to. But for now, I'm disappointed in 43 for seemingly falling into line with the Democratic smear machine.

It takes a woke village to raze a child. How do these so-called educators live with themselves? They are ruining lives and they actually feel good about it. Tip to Instapundit. 

Japan can build a counter to North Korea's new cruise missiles. As a bonus, it would protect against the Chinese, too. No doubt China is grateful to North Korea for that aspect.

Five B-21 bombers are under construction.

Some are less contagious than others, comrades! "If you’re among the Hollywood elite at the Emmys, you don’t need a face mask. If you’re a simple school student in most of the rest of America, you better have a face mask. Any questions?" Know your place, peasants. Via Instapundit.

It's almost as if mean tweets weren't the problem: "It’s hard to keep up the illusion that you’re the answer to an entire country’s ills when seemingly everything you touch falls apart." Biden counts on the media to get the American people to Believe Bullshit Better.

The Germans and Eurocrats don't understand that Russia is dangerous at home and abroad. Or maybe they understand but don't care.

So the rest of Europe completely unaffected by Australia's cancellation of a French submarine purchase will be willing to go to figurative war with Britain in solidarity with French commercial operations? "Britain’s secret security pact with the US and Australia has put Brexit negotiations over Northern Ireland at risk, France said on Tuesday as it warned the submarine row was now a 'European issue'." Macron likes to believe France runs the European Union. We'll see.

Parents and students sure learned a lot that day: "Students walked out of class on Friday and held a protest in support of students who are facing cyberbullying and other incidents of bullying in school, including by teachers, they say. The district locked the children out of the school and refused to allow them transportation home, leading parents to scramble to find them safe rides home." Ef teacher unions and the school administrations they rode in on.

Protecting Biden with human shields. Classy.

Is China's apparent absence of Xi Jinping Flu cases and deaths simply because China doesn't routinely test for the Covid virus among the sick and doesn't count pandemic deaths as broadly as the West does?

Our media simply doesn't understand the country it purports to report on. America is an alien culture they will never understand. But they seem to hate it, anyway.

The Cuban people still suffer under a communist tyranny.

Russian proxy "war" on NATO: "Poland is sending 500 additional army troops and special vehicles to its border with Belarus to strengthen it against increasing migrant pressures which the government says is orchestrated by Belarus and Russia to destabilize the European Union."

I have little hope that the bureaucracy will allow the prosecution of any but token scapegoats for the 2016 Clinton campaign/Obama administration conspiracy against Trump. But I'd like to be pleasantly surprised.

American forces killed a senior al Qaeda leader in northwest Syria. The war on jihadis did not end, oddly enough.

Space Force enlisted rank insignia:

Australia's switch from French non-nuclear subs in 2016 to American nuclear boats in 2016 represents a massive change in China's threat level to Australia. And France is not as reliable a major weapons supplier in the face of Chinese opposition as America is: "In times of peace, the purchase of equipment isn’t necessarily based on an alignment of interests or an ability or willingness to participate in a potential conflict. A nation needs to have a comprehensive relationship with a country likely and able to share risks. Price, in other words, is not the issue. The acquisition of weapons must be part of a systematic and common interest. France did not fit this profile. Its action or inaction from Australia’s point of view is unpredictable. France has its interests, and it is not clear they will align with Australia’s." Interestingly enough, I made the same argument about supplier reliability in India's fighter decision.

It's okay. The media lies bolstering Democratic denials lasted long enough to drag Biden's barely breathing carcass across the finish line: "Politico is reporting with independent confirmation that, at minimum, parts of the Hunter Biden laptop story are legitimate. It is possible some material that is not was slipped in, but they have confirmation that major portions are legitimate." Tip to Instapundit.

Whipgate: Or why I hate the media, part N.

Racism. By the Left's own past reasoning. Will people be upset that the government has outsourced the enforcement of racism to private businesses? Businesses should tell the government to enforce their own damn stupid rules.

I worry when the Democrats panic. I fear that panic will get them all to fall in line. But fingers crossed that enough are terrified of the massive spending plans of the extremists to prevent them from falling in line.

Acceptable collateral damage in the war to stoke panic porn? Is a doubling of childhood diabetes in the studies during the pandemic reflective of the entire population of children? And let's not forget the racist impact--again, by the left's definitions--of the lockdowns? "Although type 2 diabetes in youth has always been more common in ethnic minorities, the pandemic appears to have exacerbated these disparities."

Marines adopt the Reaper for the vast scale of Pacific reconnaissance. 

"Peace is elusive in Syria because of Iran."

Crowdsourcing support for the military to civilian volunteers. I've discussed that for a long time. And it might move beyond a supporting role.

The Navy and the Pentagon are separately studying what the Navy should look like to defend America.

Well, criticism is racist unless the criticism is directed at Larry Elder. Then any stupid attack is justified. Tip to Instapundit.

Biden says America has turned the page on Afghanistan in order to focus on more important objectives. That's always how Democrats justify losing the war we are actually in.

So we've got that going for us: "Fact for Milley: Senior Chinese military officers are members of the Chinese Communist Party. Tiananmen Square. Hong Kong absorption. Uighur genocide. The Chinese military is a Party tool, Mark, a violent tool. [para] Milley's short-sighted and, I argue, savvily self-serving action weakened U.S. national security and put the U.S. constitutional system at risk." Still, as our media could easily twist this, our norms and institutions really were undermined during the Trump presidency! 

So what is Xi Jinping doing to the Chinese economy? Well, the Chinese Communist Party prioritizes its monopoly on political power above all other objectives; and Xi Jinping seeks to bend the CCP to his will, and his will alone. Interesting times?

Huh: "The White House press pool filed a formal complaint against Democrat President Joe Biden for refusing to answer questions from American media about the multiple crises that have erupted under his regime." To be fair, the press can't be Democratic Party stenographers if the Big Guy doesn't say anything. Tip to Instapundit.

Captain Obvious testifies before Congress: "FBI Director Christopher Wray warned Tuesday that the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan could inspire a new wave of extremism in the U.S." Can we trust the FBI to tackle even an obvious threat given their corruption and incompetence in other areas of responsibility?

No word on whether Putin has an alibi: "A top aide for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was shot at Tuesday while riding in a vehicle outside of Kyiv in what authorities described as an assassination attempt, according to the New York Times."

Interesting: "The USNS Choctaw County has arrived in Beirut, Lebanon, to participate in a first-of-its-kind mission intended to strengthen military ties between the countries, the U.S. Navy said Tuesday." The assistance practiced might come in handy if Israel tries to rip up the roots of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It looks like the Chinese Communist Party took over Taiwan--on Twitter, anyway: "China has finally taken control of Taiwan, according to social networking giant Twitter, which redirects some searches for the word Taiwan to results for the word China." Twitter is awful. Via Instapundit.

I think we need a national conversation on lucidity: "Until now, many members of the mainstream media have claimed that it is cruel to question Biden’s mental state. Isn’t it worse to pretend that nothing is wrong as our Commander-in-Chief routinely embarrasses and degrades our country on the world stage?" Tip to Instapundit. Even our press corps is starting to snap out of their unnatural denial:

Huh: "Despite repeated warnings from Presidentish Joe Biden against ransomware attacks coming from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, somehow another proscribed target just got hit by the Russians." Well, it probably wasn't on the list Biden gave Putin. So it doesn't get the benefits of American protection. Oh well! You don't need to be stranded in Afghanistan to be an American abandoned by the Biden administration.

Let's hope there is accountability. Heck, enough Democrats might throw Biden under the bus to give Republicans a sizable scalp to end the scandal, rid themselves of a clear liability in their semi-sentient standard bearer, and fund raise off of the "tragic' removal of a president to dastardly Republicans.

Not exactly the storming of the Bastille, eh? There was surely some bad behavior on January 6th. But you can see why the government tried to keep this surveillance video secret. This was no insurrection. If those people had been chanting "this is what democracy looks like" and had been protesting for a Democratic cause, the media would have called them heroes and there'd be statues and movies made already. Tip to Instapundit. Meanwhile, will the actual plot to undermine American democracy be punished? Because that effort was broad and effective: "Russiagate was a daisy-chain of deceptions. The Clinton campaign systematically planted phony stories about things like the Trump-Alfa business, the pee tape/blackmail tale, and Carter Page’s supposed role as a Trump-Russia conduit; the FBI went along with the fiction that inquiries launched on these matters did not originate as paid research from the Clinton campaign; and a parade of news media figures were culpable either as dupes or witting participants in these frauds, which in the case of the Alfa stunt was executed in a “hurry” to affect a presidential election." Lock a lot of people up for this deception in pursuit of nakedly political goals.

On the bright side, the Afghanistan victory by the Taliban hasn't saved the apparent collapse of Boko Haram. But beware, Boko Haram declined before. Corruption remains a major factor. And given that most African jihadis are pro-ISIL or pro-al Qaeda, maybe they are waiting for their rises in newly jihadi-run Afghanistan.

Aircraft attrition, and Russian exceptionlism.

Apparently Indonesia and Malaysia are worried that Australian SSNs will provoke a militarized reaction? I'm sorry to say that those hundreds of PLAN ships sailed already. I guess some diplomacy is needed to settle down the worries.

Recipe for destruction in the Central African Republic: Russians, landmines, and IEDs. 

I saw a story saying the Xi Jinping Flu could be over in a year. So that makes it a pandemic that will have lasted nearly three years from its late 2019 start in Wuhan, a city in China. Although this story (via Instapundit) says it might be over in March 2022, say 27 months. This duration despite effective vaccines. Given that the Spanish Flu pandemic lasted a couple years does this mean our expensive vaccine and lockdown measures were completely ineffective in ending the pandemic? Mind you, the efforts might have saved lives without shortening the pandemic. But do we even know that given the collateral damage of lockdowns that cause deaths? And how is it possible that widespread vaccination didn't truncate the duration? Could it be that an engineered virus was more resilient to vaccine measures to defeat it? Or did we effectively defeat the pandemic this past summer but the Delta panic porn has disguised that fact? This is way outside my lanes, so I'm just asking. Will we get honest answers?

I'd rather have more Constellation frigates to replace retiring cruisers and destroyers. But unless production ramps up and the ship doesn't experience big cost overruns, building more Burke destroyers does seem like the best short-term solution to surface fleet missile capacity. Of course, we need to look at sub, aircraft, and ground force contributions to the total firepower, to make a good decision. Does the Navy count on assets other than surface ships to hold the line until it gets what it thinks it needs?

What part of "The Taliban government is holding Americans hostage" is unclear? "Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley criticized President Biden for failing to demand that his international peers 'not recognize the Taliban' as the official government in Afghanistan, saying America looks 'weak and pathetic.'"

The Biden administration has done enough to forfeit public trust. Is it possible for Biden to regain it or has he sunk into irrecoverable failure territory just 8 months into his presidency? 

A drone that can carry a anti-submarine torpedo. It requires other assets to find the sub. The drone could in theory be used for other heavy payloads, too, such as resupply and casualty evacuation.

The Stryker brigade of the 4th Infantry Division is taking over base security and other missions in Iraq. But the Stryker vehicles weren't sent with the troops. The ISIL threat in Iraq is lower but not eliminated: "Insurgents from the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) militant group are evolving their tactics and launching increasingly bold attacks, as they continue to exploit chronic security gaps in northern Iraq's disputed territories." Let's watch this lest Iraqi forces collapse again from poor leadership. And don't forget the threat of an Iranian-sponsored Shia militia uprising.

Well that's awkward: "Turkey has sent more troops to northwestern Syria as it prepares for a critical meeting with the leaders of Russia and Iran next week, signaling its determination to carry on blocking an assault on one of the Syrian war’s last front lines." Defending "good jihadis" to block Russia and Assad. Quite the dilemma. But there is no dilemma for Assad and the Russians: "Warplanes attacked Turkey-backed opposition fighters in northern Syria on Sunday, killing and wounding about 20, an opposition war monitor and pro-government media said."

To be fair, Israel's Iron Dome system might not have anything to do if the Palestinians can' divert civilian aid to its rocket arsenal to bombard Israeli civilians: "Senate Democrats are discussing whether to pair new funding for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system with aid for the Palestinians after $1 [billion] for the system was cut from a stopgap spending patch that passed the House on Tuesday." But when put to a vote under the light of day, the House refused to go along with the linkage, prompting AOC to weep. I'm sensing a Democratic urge to embrace the holy "peace process" and restore the Palestinians the title of Queen of the Victim Prom.

Only 3% of the Afghans who America airlifted out of Kabul were special immigrant visa holders--our friends who helped us. The Biden administration decided that it would hide our failure to get our local allies out (and get all Americans out) by focusing on quantity of people nearby who were scooped up. The sheer numbers of random people evacuated were mere props to hide America's defeat behind a large evacuation.  I'll count us lucky if the SIV holders outnumber the jihadi agents slipped into the U.S.

Does the Chinese property and construction company Evergrande's stock decline and money problem telegraph a wider economic crisis in China? Certainly, China is trying to shift its economy away from reliance on the company's practices. But is this denial that it is a Chinese version of Lehman Brothers in America more than a decade ago really comforting? "But given Beijing’s influence and vested interests, the analogy does not easily fit. 'Unless China’s regulators seriously mismanage the situation, a systemic crisis in the country’s financial sector is not on the cards,' says He Wei, an analyst at Gavekal, a research company." I think Westerners grossly overestimate the ability of the Chinese government to manage the situation. And it isn't as if Evergrande is China's only problem. Also, a lot of newly middle class Chinese people put everything they have into Evergrande property. Not to mention investors. If things go really wrong, let's hope the Chinese Communist Party doesn't decide a short and glorious war abroad is the best means to rally newly poor but hopefully nationalistic people around the CCP. If my memory serves me, the Lehman Brothers crisis was downplayed as a system problem initially. Until it was. Interesting times, indeed.

India has made progress in military production competence and airlift capabilities. Which will help deal with China by increasing logistics capabilities in India's infrastructure-poor China border region.

Russia announced a new stealth bomber. My pucker factor has not risen as a result: "For now, despite a full-sized wooden mock-up and talks of a prototype under construction, Russia’s PAK DA exists as little more than another Russian paper plane. Whether or not it someday becomes more remains to be seen." The announcement probably means Russia reached peak efforts given their record on announcing vapor-super weapons.

America may be serious about rebuilding its sealift capability: "The Department of Transportation is working closely with the Defense Department and the sea service to advance a strategy to repair and replace dozens of ships in the coming years, said Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg." Good.

Did France shoot itself in the foot by demanding European--that is, European Union--"strategic autonomy" as a reaction to the AUKUS submarine+ deal? "This implies France sees European strategic autonomy as protecting and extending its own sovereign power and industrial interests rather than as a process for EU members to achieve more together in security and foreign policy than they can alone – thereby undermining rather than enhancing its case." That is a bloody giveaway for how France sees the EU as a vehicle for French power. If France hurt the EU, I'll thank them.

The Philippines endured repeated whacks with the clue bat wielded by China, hoping that it was all just a misunderstanding soon to be replaced by glorious Chinese respect and cooperation. Well, Manila finally noticed the welts and ringing headache: "Plans to build facilities for U.S. troops in the Philippines, which had stalled for years amid wrangling over rules for visiting forces, are back on track, officials from both countries said Thursday." In a worst case scenario, American ground troops with anti-ship and air defense missiles could be airlifted into the Philippines quickly.

Democracy dies in Xi Jinping Flu lockdowns. The Chinese virus import is bad. The Chinese dictatorial policy import is the really deadly import. Seriously, what is going on in Australia?

The Arizona election audit confirmed that Biden won Arizona based on the hand count of the ballots in existence. Assuming the audit methodology ever had a chance of detecting fraud. Which might not be an accurate way of defining what the audit said. But as I've said, the real cheating in the 2020 election probably took place with the media propaganda in collusion with the federal permanent bureaucracy and Democratic Party. I'm not convinced the Democratic Party directly cheated to win in 2020. I predicted a Biden win. But the Democrats certainly set up a system that put in place systemic errors and opportunities for others to cheat that leaned heavily toward Democrats. Will we ever find out for sure?

Well, I haven't read his King's English dreck in a long time, but once again I'll say that Fareed Zakaria couldn't find his own buttocks with both hands and a GPS signal.

Fat-phobia is a made up thought crime that kills people.

Good Lord, people, you don't need an "explainer" to understand why North Korea wants sanctions lifted before talking about nukes. North Korea has a history of taking the goodies and agreeing to nothing substantive. By the time the goodies start running out, North Korea repeats the process. Let the Goddamn place die without trying to revive the corpse. If China wants their little pet nuclear psycho on the loose, let them pay for it. I was frankly worried that the lure of a deal would get Trump to follow that play book. I'm relieved he did not. Let's hope Biden doesn't make that mistake to let Kim Jong-Un live to fight another day on our credit card. No matter how persuasive the South Koreans might be that this time for sure sending aid to North Korea will work.

Iraqi forces conducted air strikes against jihadis southwest of Kirkuk.

And the war isn't even really over: "The United Nations human rights chief said Friday that her office has documented the deaths of 350,209 people — civilians and combatants — in Syria’s civil war over the last decade, while admitting the real number for those killed in the conflict is almost certainly far higher." I just thank God we didn't "further militarize" the conflict 330,000 documented deaths ago.

Perhaps this is a good idea, but Milley doesn't have credibility when discussing increased contacts with foes: "The U.S. should explore ways to expand its military contacts with the Russians, potentially to include allowing observers from each country to watch the other’s combat exercises, in a broad effort to increase transparency and reduce the risk of conflict, the top U.S. military officer said Thursday." But if it helps Russia pivot to the Pacific, it would be worth it.

Transparency: "Republican and Democratic lawmakers grew frustrated after State Department, Pentagon, Department of Homeland Security, and Office of the Director of National Security officials failed to answer their basic questions during the briefing for members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, the sources told CNN."

Iran is threatening Iraqi territory where Iranian Kurds have sought refuge: "Iran is threatening to expand a bombing campaign targeting rebels in border villages of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region, saying Iraqi Kurdish authorities must expel the rebels or the offensive will broaden."

This sounds useful in case Russia invades the NATO ex-Soviet Baltic States: "Marines are conducting raids alongside Swedish marines on a handful of the more than 30,000 wooded islands, islets and crags of Sweden’s shoreline." While Sweden is not (yet) a member of NATO, it is working on being semi-NATO in the short run: "The plan, which projects annual spending on defense to increase by $3.17 billion to $10.45 billion by 2025, is also buttressed by a parallel strategy to deepen the country’s pan-Nordic defense cooperation in partnership with Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland." Iceland has no military. But having Iceland on board allowing American air supply and reinforcement via NATO air bases there would be helpful in case of Russian aggression against Sweden.

So the Biden administration is reacting to a falsely interpreted "whipgate" photo by banning the Border Patrol from using horses. That makes total sense, eh? Why not ban whips? Because there are no whips. Well it makes sense if the administration objective is to make our border patrol personnel demoralized by throwing them under the bus.

More than 30 years ago a PhD student in archaeology told me how the established big names in the field squashed findings like this that challenged the consensus theory: "The tracks at one location have been revealed as both the earliest known footprints and the oldest firm evidence of humans anywhere in the Americas, showing that people lived there 21,000 to 23,000 years ago — several thousand years earlier than scientists once believed." 

This is how nuanced ransom payments are made: "The United States on Friday further paved the way for aid to flow to Afghanistan despite U.S. sanctions on the Taliban, who seized control of the country last month, issuing general licenses amid concern that Washington's punitive measures could compound an unfolding humanitarian crisis." Say, how many American citizens and legal residents are totally not stranded in Afghanistan these days, anyway?

Regarding that so-called dangerous rally for those still being held on non-violent charges from the so-called "insurrection" on 1/6. Hahaha:

Serbia has raised readiness levels among troops on Kosovo's border in a dispute. American and allied troops remain in Kosovo following the 1999 NATO-Serbia air war over Kosovo. 

I don't want to hear another word from Democrats about Pentagon $10,000 aircraft toilet seats: "The city’s initial request for proposals, in 2018, envisioned a top price tag of less than $1,000 a can. But that price has at least doubled, and could now hit as high as $5,000 a can, Public Works administrators indicated in the discussions on the process." $5,000 custom-designed trash bins for San Francisco.

Okay, this is really good:

All I know for sure is that if they run into aliens while in space, Shatner will make out with a female of the species. But to make sure he is safe he should insist that everyone else in the capsule is wearing a red shirt. Tip to Instapundit.

Israeli satellite capabilities.

Oh sure, the White House staff let the president outside "the wall" to give us these words of wisdom.

Oh, I don't dismiss or disrespect French military capabilities. I do have a fair amount of contempt for the French civilian leadership, which values the EU as a means to destroy NATO and therefore reduce American influence in Europe.

Maybe the system isn't racist. Maybe it's Democrats who control the federal government, city governments and police forces, schools, higher education, and entertainment.

In the spirit of bipartisanship, I fully endorse President Biden's proposal to make sure trillionaires pay their fair share of taxes. They've had it easy way too long.

Accountability finally comes to the Biden administration: "The good news is that somebody in the Biden administration is finally getting fired for screwing up. The bad news is that it’s a bunch of horses." We know the "horrible" image portrayed is false. But still the administration will "investigate" the situation. Because 1619. Say, now that I think about it, horses were introduced into the Americas by Europeans. Ipso woketo, the horses must go! Tip to Instapundit.

Khaaaannnnn!!!! "Prime Minister Imran Khan sought to cast Pakistan as the victim of American ungratefulness and an international double standard in his address to the United Nations General Assembly on Friday." Yeah, America is ungrateful for Pakistan's backstabbing support for Taliban and other jihadi terrorists that undermined our war in Afghanistan. As long as Pakistan persists in thinking foreigners are harming Pakistan instead of recognizing its own leaders are Pakistan's worst enemy, Pakistan remains on the road to a failed state. With nukes. Have a super sparkly day.

If Lavrov had said this when Trump was president, the media-bureaucracy complex would have swung into high gear to allege administration collusion with the Russians to engineer an American defeat: "The United States, China, Russia and Pakistan are working together to ensure that Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers keep their promises, especially to form a genuinely representative government and prevent extremism from spreading, Russia’s foreign minister said Saturday." 

No word if the Chinese Communist Party has reached the stage of ripping gold fillings from the mouths of dead Uighurs.

America's Secretary of Commerce wants closer economic ties with China. Was she just thawed out after going into suspended animation in 1992?

I went to a Michigan football game for the first time since 2019. We barely won so I'm worried about our endless rebuilding. Here's hoping it was just a bad day. But what really disturbs me is that all the concessions did not take cash. When does the first lawsuit about our currency being "legal tender for all debts, public and private" hit places that refuse to take actual money? 

I haven't heard much about Florida's pandemic problems lately. Which means they must be doing so well that it isn't even plausible to misread statistics to prove disaster.

It's only been 8 months of the Biden presidency. But are administration officials who are propping up Biden going to conclude they need to keep Biden's facade standing until 2024 in order to avoid having to turn the presidency over to Vice President Harris? She has not exactly impressed anybody with her role a heartbeat away from the presidency. And have the last several months especially convinced the officials that if they can prop up Biden through this clusterfuck of disasters that they can go the distance to allow someone else to run in 2024?

Inciting insurrection. Yes, to Hell with those people.

I can't say I strongly disagree with this: "Try Milley by court martial, convict and sentence him to Fort Leavenworth's Long Course. At Leavenworth, he can discuss perception warfare with his sledge while he whacks a rock." Norms and institutions have been dangerously undermined.

Hi Jinping: You didn't build that and I can break you on a whim.

Will Europe shiver this winter because of Russia's natural gas warfare?

Huh: "A home drone delivery service in Canberra, Australia, was forced to temporarily shut down after its devices kept getting attacked by ravens guarding their nests, The Canberra Times reported." I'm telling you, as I argued in Army magazine, fighter drones are the best way to protect forward troops in combat from drone swarm attacks.

Will Britain send SSNs to the Arctic to defend Canadian territorial claims there? Which could be awkward since America doesn't recognize all of Canada's claims to waterways we think are international waters.

How many FBI agents were involved in the January 6th Capitol Building riot? And why didn't the Capitol Police prepare better if there was advanced warning? This is weird.

I think Amazon insulted me. I think I mentioned I belatedly remembered my Prime trial was 2/3 through when I realized I should watch videos while I had it. Apparently Amazon generated a paper letter to send me to remind me to use video? I don't think I've ever gotten a communication from them by other than email. Am I that old? Paper is how they figured they'd get my attention? The funny thing is, by the time I got the letter I'd watched 32 episodes of two shows they have that I've wanted to watch. It was tough to binge that much but I did it. Today is my last day.

Oh, the Lions found a new and spectacular way to get my hopes up and then crush them. I think we need a volcano and virgins to fix this problem.

And Now For Something Completely Different

There's something in the memes tonight, hold on.