Weekend Data Dump

Let's hope this sweep is solid counter-intelligence rather than paranoia. Because such Russian assets no doubt exist. Tip to Instapundit.

The Air Force figured losing SAR for downed pilots was acceptable collateral damage to get rid of the A-10.

Democratic operatives with bylines. May they find lucrative work in Starbucks. Via Instapundit.

Democrats are changing the longstanding definition of "recession" to protect Democrats in the November elections: "Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you've never heard of[.]" So don't believe your lying eyes, ignorant peasants.

Good, if meaningful: "President Biden vowed to expand cyber cooperation with Israel and Saudi Arabia[.]"

China's new J-35 might be an actual stealth fighter. The last one, the J-20, was a frontal only stealth plane. 

Every piece of Chinese electronics should be ripped out of our infrastructure. So unstall that "stalled 'rip and replace' program[.]" Congress should make it illegal to use anything remotely related to China in that matter.

Myanmar (Burma) executed two pro-democracy dissidents.

The only reason we don't know is because the SCOTUS leaker must be from the left. Otherwise we'd know. I'm so old I remember when the cover up and not the crime was the big deal. Via Instapundit.

I'm open to getting a third Covid-19 shot (and after getting the Xi Jinping Flu, too) if it actually focused on the virus we have now rather than the original made-in-Wuhan virus. Via Instapundit.

NATO is a luxury America doesn't need? FFS, people, defending Europe isn't a Goddamn gift to the Europeans!

To win a war you need enough you can afford to lose. 

So far Putin is successfully herding his political, economic, and military ruling class cats.

Many substitutes for victory and the white rage unicorn. Gosh, I wonder why military recruiting has a problem now. Our woke--or woke adjacent if you want to be generous--flag officers need a solid purge.

Climate emergency? LOL. More like a reelection emergency. Via Instapundit.

One of these days the Russians are going to take an area in the Donbas after extensive combat only to find that the Ukrainians have packed the now-evacuated objective with explosives that they detonate under the advancing Russians. Think of it as reverse mining. That's what I'd try, anyway. Might discourage the Russian cannon fodder from advancing after the artillery barrages.

Trying to fight climate change destroyed a country well before climate change could. Although to be fair, China started the ball rolling with willing local idiot leaders. Bravo.

Good: "The Czech Republic and other East European NATO members are quietly donating hundreds of Russian helicopters, tanks, rocket launchers, rockets, artillery shells and other items of military equipment to Ukraine without providing many details." Are these part of the counter-attacks on the Kherson front?

Every little bit helps: "Slovakia may consider donating its fleet of [11] Soviet-era [MiG-29 fighters] to Ukraine[.]"

Whenever I hear "littoral warfare" advocated, I think of operating expensive warships (and yes, even the LCS is expensive) within range of even the simplest land-based anti-ship weapons. Thinking this would work against China is a fantasy. 

The National Guard to expand state partnerships with friendly Asian countries.

Germany is preparing for a Russian natural gas cutoff by reducing gas demand, seeking other supplies, adding coal power, and retaining nuclear power. Winter is coming. Russian gas isn't. Why aren't Europeans asking America to frack for natural gas like lives depend on it?

South Korea offers to supply Australia with conventional subs to bridge the gap between Australia's Collins boats and new nuclear-power subs.

Huh: Russia's Lavrov said they"will certainly help the Ukrainian people to get rid of the regime, which is absolutely anti-people and anti-historical." One day the Russian people will wonder why Ukrainians are fighting so hard to resist being rescued, won't they? Russia is in trouble if its expanding casualties are pushing it to expand its war aims to match its sacrifice. How does that race end?

The State Department has approved the sale of AMRAAMs to Japan.

Iran keeps Yemen's war going.

No canceling the Taliban on social media. Whatever: "Afghan women live in terror after US withdrawal[.]" There is at least resistance to the Taliban. This never gets obsolete:

This article says Ukraine launched an offensive on the Kherson front beginning in late May. No. There are broad local counter-attacks that have slowly liberated ground. Without massed artillery fire, I'll note. But there is no major offensive as yet. At least not according to press reports.

It would be nice if the Air Force could have working KC-46 tankers. At long last.

Leaning forward: "The increasingly frequent aggressive actions by the Peoples Liberation Army Air Force like 'chaffing' an Australian patrol aircraft in international waters and causing a Canadian patrol aircraft to alter its course to avoid a collision off North Korea 'look like a pattern and policy' dictated by Beijing rather than random acts by pilots, the Pentagon’s senior official on Indo-Pacific security said Tuesday."

The Navy's "updated 'Navigation Plan' for 2022. In effect, the Navigation Plan represents Admiral Gilday’s instructions to the service on how to execute the Triservice Maritime Strategy (2020), along with higher-order directives such as the National Defense Strategy and the interim National Security Strategy." This is for my own future reference. 

We aren't good at accounting for the will to fight. But we also need to understand the other intangibles such as leadership, training, and warfighting doctrine that are also intangible. That's why I completely ignore sites that simply measure firepower. And wanting senior officers loyal more than you want them competent isn't just a problem for dictatorships. I think our woke brass are a major danger to our country. We need a massive purge of the senior officer ranks.

Universities are filled with diversity administrators. Tons of them. Administering lots of programs. Using lots of money. So just how racist are these leftist-dominated institutions?

Iran is no friend of Iraq: "Thousands of demonstrators chanting anti-Iran slogans stormed the Iraqi capital’s government center and occupied the parliament building Wednesday, protesting corruption and denouncing the leading candidate to be the country’s next prime minister." And no friend of America.

The Army will have a 90-day fitness program just to prepare civilians to start basic training. I took a shot at addressing recruiting a while back in Army magazine. We'd do better by having 90-day programs for flag officers to de-woke them.

In recent weeks I've seen a lot more people wearing masks while they are out walking alone. I don't get it.

Wounded Ukrainian troops can now be treated at an American military hospital in Germany.

While it would be nice, I don't think America can make the Lebanese armed forces a counter-weight to Hezbollah. At best we can help the LAF so it can fill the vacuum if Israel destroys Hezbollah--or if Iran abandons it. At worst the LAF is just the temporary custodian of weapons until Hezbollah wants them.

Biden has no major policy plans for the hundreds of American troops inside Syria. It is useful to have a buffer zone to reduce jihadi infiltration of Iraq. But I'll ask again, what are we willing to die for in Syria? I'd like us to answer that before we have a Mogadishu or Beirut Barracks moment.

Russia's supply of artillery shells is finite because "post-Soviet Russia could not afford to maintain manufacturing facilities capable of producing large quantities of ordinary artillery shells and unguided rockets."

Are the Chinese not humiliated by thinking a Speaker Pelosi trip to Taiwan is a threat? Still, after she leaves China might have a response ready. 

In space, no one can hear you screw the pooch.

Extend NATO to Asia? I'm skeptical that NATO states unconcerned about Russia would generate power to stop China. Besides, South Korea? Japan? Russia will think it is aimed at them. 

I thought it was well known that hypersonic missiles aren't hard to stop because they are fast but because the don't follow a ballistic arc and can maneuver.

Artillery ammunition is effing heavy. It's a point of vulnerability to Russia's war plans.

Is this a big deal for Chinese stability or isn't it? Tip to Instapundit.

No! Way! Tip to Instapundit.

Leftism is easier (and more satisfying) when other people pay the price.

I can't say this won't work.

Ukraine scores a success in the shadow war.

What? You think memory holes create themselves? Tip to Instapundit.

Report to Congress on Navy force structure.

Germany authorized the production of 100 self-propelled artillery pieces for Ukraine. In some number of months the first ones will arrive.

Japan urged Russia not to hold military drills around disputed islands. Russia should think about how much Japan could help Russia against China.

Ukrainian resistance to Russian occupation.

AFRICOM sees rising threats without more resources to deal with them. AFRICOM has low priority but it still needs assets to carry out missions.

Thankfully Michigan switched to defined contribution retirement a quarter century ago, meaning the legacy system is less and less of a burden at the state level.

Enjoy: "Remember when the Democrats told us illegal immigration was good? 'This is a sanctuary city' and 'People aren’t illegal' and all that? Remember how they called you a racist for caring about what’s happening on our southern border? You’ll never guess what happened when they got a taste of their own medicine." Give them what they say they want and they get upset.

I Concede that Ukraine could be considered a loser in their war because of the economic damage Russia is inflicting, even if Ukraine wins the war on the battlefield. But I'm not overly worried about Ukraine after a generation or so. Unless corruption interrupts that.

The enemy within at the top of our military services: "Wokeness is a sickness. It's prevalent. It's the rule. And it's destroying our military."

While I've heard that the Russians are at a disadvantage defending in the Kherson region because the Dniepr River is behind them, that is only partially true. Defending forward of a river--if Russia can keep lines of communication open--will stall any Ukrainian breakthrough of Russian lines when the Ukrainians reach the river. 

LOL!

 

A year after the Biden administration said Taliban 2.0 would transform to get international approval ... not so much.

How long before Canada is Cuba with snow? Tip to Instapundit.

That was an own-goal by Zelensky. Luckily Ukraine's been invaded by a ruthless war criminal. So unless we're totally daft it is merely an embarrassment. Tip to Instapundit.

European fighter design and production capabilities.

India's navy took delivery of the first carrier it has built. It should be commissioned in a month.

The State Department approved the sale of 35 F-35s to Germany. This allows German planes to continue to have the capability of carrying American nuclear bombs.

The day the Speaker of the House of Representatives can have her travel plans vetoed by the Chinese Communist Party is a dangerous day for America, indeed. At this point Pelosi must go there. No military escort. Just go. With no notice. But plenty of cameras. If she was visiting the League of Democracies NGO that I want headquartered there, this would work much better.

Somebody attacked Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters at Sevastopol in occupied Crimea with a small suicide drone, injuring 6 and leading to cancellation of Navy Day celebrations.

And Now For Something Completely Different

We wrote the loneliest blog. We memed without any style. We link altogether wrong. No site traffic.

Yes, I realize a Supreme Court justice is not in the administration.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Sanctuary No More

America hasn't faced a direct conventional threat to the continental United States in a long time. We've had the luxury of fighting "over there" rather than "over here". Technology is changing that.

American production, transportation (railroads, ports, and airfields in particular), and logistics assets in the lower 48 states (CONUS, or the Continental United States) are no longer part of a sanctuary that can project power overseas unhindered by enemy action. Cruise missiles need to be stopped before they confine our military power to North America.

Defending the homeland from cruise missile attack is a higher priority:

The Pentagon’s plan to defend the U.S. homeland from cruise missiles is starting to take shape after a prolonged period of development because until recently, the threat was perceived as a more distant regional one, a senior Air Force official said.

North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command have been working for several years and across two presidential administrations to come up with a design that can effectively defend the continental U.S. from cruise missiles, according to Brig. Gen. Paul Murray, NORAD deputy director of operations.

Sure, there was a time when fighter planes and air defense missiles were deployed widely across America. But those were to defeat nuclear-armed bombers.

And recently we have built thin ballistic missile defenses. 

But there are limits to what we can do:

CSIS, in a report it debuted at the conference, said it will be impossible to protect everything. Lt. Gen. A.C. Roper, U.S. NORTHCOM deputy commander, said in a recording played at the event, that “placing a Patriot or a [Terminal High Altitude Area Defense] battery on every street corner is both infeasible and unaffordable.”

Focused defense is in order. America hasn't worried about protecting our assets to project power abroad since the Army had coastal defense artillery to protect our ports.

That ability to project power without worrying about threats to the homeland has been the key to our global power and influence. But we need not only the free power to project abroad, but the ability to project that power.

Yet cruise missiles with precision targeting could prevent America from projecting our reserve power abroad to support allies. I've worried about our fleet at home. With good reason. Now we have to guard our infrastructure.

Distant Early Warning Alarm Blaring

As Russia tries to restore its empire in the west, Russia finds it is losing influence in Central Asia. That should set off alarm bells in Moscow if Russia wants to hold their Far East holdings on the Sea of Japan.

Kazakhstan declares independence of action:

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine emboldened Kazakhstan’s President Kassym Jomart Tokayev to finally step out of his predecessor’s shadow in a bid to chart a new path for his country. Kazakhstan, a state historically under Russian influence, now endeavors to follow an independent foreign policy where Nur-Sultan can pursue opportunities irrespective of the Kremlin’s preferences. 

Despite including Europe in its new opportunities path, a "new path" means China for all practical purposes:

Tokayev seeks to deepen relations with the European Union and China to reorient Kazakh foreign policy away from the toxic dynamics which characterize Russo-Kazakh relations. In addition to economic opportunities with China, Tokayev aims to deepen security cooperation with Beijing. China, owing to the importance it’s placed on Kazakhstan for its Belt and Road Initiative, has established a foundation for deepening security cooperation with Kazakhstan through bilateral military exercises and investments in the Kazakh government’s surveillance capabilities. Tokayev and Chinese Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe said that Kazakhstan and China will expand military cooperation at a meeting on April 25.  

Which is a natural evolution of China's economic push in Central Asia.

Which is helpful to America's position in the western Pacific. As long as China doesn't actually take over Russia's Pacific territory taken from China in the 19th century.

And if Russia loses its influence in Central Asia, Russia's hold on its Far East loosens.

Which should really worry Russia given China's dormant--for now--claims.

So this is prudent:

Russia plans to hold strategic military exercises in the east of the country starting next month, the defence ministry said on Tuesday, thousands of miles from the war in Ukraine. ... 

The eastern military district includes part of Siberia and has its headquarters in Khabarovsk, near the Chinese border. The exercises will include some foreign forces, the defence ministry said, without specifying from which countries.

But a suggestion to the Russians--don't let the Chinese observe you too closely.

Will Russia end its self-defeating hostility toward the West and face the real threats to Russian territorial integrity?

Yeah, That Would Be an Outrageous Territorial Claim

What part of everything under the heavens is unclear when it comes to Chinese Communist Party ambitions? 

Huh:

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson recently expressed concerns over China's aims in space, and in particular, that China would, in some way, claim ownership over the moon and stop other countries from exploring it. In an interview with a German newspaper (opens in new tab), Nelson cautioned that "we must be very concerned that China is landing on the moon and saying: 'It's ours now and you stay out.'" China immediately denounced the claims as a "lie (opens in new tab)."

I'm sure that the arguments against China's claims are quite learned and based on international law and historical practice:

Legally, China cannot take over the moon because it is against current international space law. The Outer Space Treaty, adopted in 1967 and signed by 134 countries, including China, explicitly states (opens in new tab) that "Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means" (Article II (opens in new tab)). Legal scholars have debated the exact meaning of "appropriation (opens in new tab)", but under a literal interpretation, the treaty indicates that no country can take possession of the moon and declare it an extension of its national aspirations and prerogatives. If China tried to do this, it would risk international condemnation and a potential international retaliatory response.

I'm still deeply moved by the international community's condemnation and retaliation over China's illegal South China Sea claims.

I'm also sure that China doesn't care about the legal aspect. They'll make something up. One update to their official map makes it Chinese with only relative power standing between China and that territory.

NOTE: War coverage continues under this tag.

Failing the Logistics Rehearsal For the Big One?

If NATO can't logistically sustain the Ukrainian army in a relatively small-scale high-intensity war against Russia, how can it sustain itself in a war with Russia?

The Winter War of 2022 is exposing the fragility of high-tech warfare without sufficient supplies to sustain it:

The basic problem is that it is a historical fact, reinforced by the current situation, that you must maintain adequate stockpiles of ammunition and equipment for use against a large, well-equipped force in a war. These stockpiles are also referred to as the “War Reserve”, as in large quantities of munitions and spares stockpiled to keep the troops supplied during the initial 30-60 days of fighting until production can be increased to sustain the fighting. These stockpiles must contain the most useful munitions and other supplies and be positioned so they can be moved to the combat zones as quickly as possible. Without adequate logistics, as in the right supplies delivered in time, wars or at least battles, are often lost early and often. This is happening to the Russians and is crippling Ukrainian war efforts because NATO cannot keep key weapons and other supplies coming. ... 

The initial NATO response [to Russia's February invasion of Ukraine] was massive and demonstrated the superiority of NATO weapons. It also revealed that NATO nations had underestimated the need to stockpile sufficient munitions to fight this kind or war and nations manufacturing most of these weapons had not paid enough attention (despite frequent warnings) to how long it would take to achieve wartime production levels.

Congress is addressing this failure:

The assumption seems to be that, if the U.S. ever does go to war, we can quickly ramp up production of munitions to meet the military’s needs.

That assumption has now proved false. In just 135 days of conflict, we have sent about a third of our stocks of Stinger and Javelin missiles to a single country, Ukraine. And there is little hope of replenishing those stocks anytime soon.

Right now, being the arsenal of democracy to defeat Russian imperial ambitions is a practice run for being able to keep shooting during a major war with a peer military power. 

Russia has three times the population of Ukraine. I compared Russia's war with Ukraine to the Iran-Iraq War where Iran had a 3:1 population edge:

What about GDP and defense spending? You'd think Russia clearly has the edge with a 9:1 GDP advantage. 

But Russia is under Western sanctions that will harm Russia's ability to go to war production levels. Russian Soviet-era stockpiles will run low in time--or reach the material and ammo almost more dangerous to Russian users than Ukrainian targets.

And Ukraine is being supplied by the West, which has an immensely greater GDP advantage than Russia's advantage over Ukraine. So you can't just count the value of the arms and services provided to Ukraine when comparing the economic advantage. You'd have to count the research and development and logistics value on Ukraine's side of the ledger that provides the weapons, supplies, and services.

So when you compare the scientific, industrial, and military effort on both sides, is Russia really superior in material?

That depends on how much of the products of the Western military-industrial complex is funneled to Ukraine. I can't rule out that the West will end up trying to give enough to defeat Russia but fail to fine tune its effort enough to deprive Russia of victory. 

I'm worried that even if the West decides to go all-in to help Ukraine win on the battlefield that the West does not have the industrial capacity to do that. If the West can't sustain Ukraine's fight, the West couldn't possibly sustain a war in defense of NATO members. Or a war in Asia. And if it can't sustain its arsenal, the war will get very ugly, indeed.

We should not blow this warning to correct our weaknesses in assumptions, military power, and industrial capacity.* Russia must know that it can't outlast NATO. And defend a free (if all too corrupt) democracy that does not want to submit to Russian control, of course. The end of history is over, man.

*Never forget that Eisenhower said America had an imperative need for the military-industrial complex he warned us about. 

UPDATE: The West does have the edge if it tries: "post-Soviet Russia could not afford to maintain manufacturing facilities capable of producing large quantities of ordinary artillery shells and unguided rockets. ... Meanwhile Ukrainian troops receive more trucks, weapons and ammunition from NATO nations that can outproduce the Russians."

NOTE: War coverage continues under this tag.

The Winter War of 2022 Tilts Back a Bit

Russia took an operational pause to regroup after taking Luhansk province at the price of heavy casualties.* Resumed their offensive after briefly slowing down. And quickly discovered the pause had achieved nothing.

What was the Russian leadership thinking when it announced their operational pause was over?

Russia's military is likely to start an operational pause of some kind in Ukraine in the coming weeks, giving Kyiv a key opportunity to strike back, Britain's spy chief said on Thursday.

Richard Moore, chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) known as MI6, also estimated that about 15,000 Russian troops had been killed so far in its war in Ukraine, adding that was "probably a conservative estimate."

"I think they're about to run out of steam," Moore said, addressing the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, adding that the Russian military would increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower and materiel over the next few weeks.

"They will have to pause in some way, and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back."

Perhaps the Russians believed that "reset" button Hillary Clinton gave Lavrov really worked.

Russian firepower has enabled the grinding offensive that got it Luhansk. But that display of killing power conceals real problems in the Russian ground forces:

Russian forces have reverted to World War II tactics of indiscriminate mass attacks with tube and rocket artillery to grind down Ukrainian defenses. But huge losses have demoralized Russian infantry and weakened armored units. This and the risk of opposition to a military draft may have deterred Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his May 9 Victory Day speech, from calling for large-scale war mobilization. Instead, Russia's military is struggling to regenerate fighting units that have suffered heavy casualties. Some units are receiving ancient T-62 tanks.

Despite incremental gains in eastern Ukraine, a Russian military collapse is possible. Russian forces could suffer catastrophic defeat akin to that of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser's army in the 1967 Six-Day War, when more than 80 percent of its military materiel was lost.

Is such a defeat possible? Military history is replete with breakdowns. Last summer, the Afghan armed forces collapsed amid weak governance and extreme corruption. So have other large or well-equipped armies—the demoralized Russian army in 1917, the outmaneuvered French army in 1940 and British army in Singapore in 1942, and the weakened South Vietnamese army in 1975 and Iraqi army in Mosul in 2014.

Central to these fiascos was a lack of cohesion in military institutions, poor governance and corruption, and popular unwillingness to defend the state. Military theorist Carl von Clausewitz's emphasis on sound relationships between the army (PDF), government, and society appears valid.

Or the Italian army inside Egypt in 1940, if you want another example of collapse. If Ukraine can launch a counteroffensive and push the Russians over, of course. That remains unclear despite Ukraine's telegraphing an offensive on the Kherson front. Remember that the French army cracked in 1917 but the Germans didn't know it. The French army had time to recover.

While it seems like a tilt back to Ukraine, Russia still has a lot of Ukrainian territory. Unless Ukraine rolls that conquest back at least in part the tilt won't matter. And will go away. 

Meanwhile on the Kherson front, "Ukrainian forces have struck and seriously damaged a bridge that is key for supplying Russian troops in southern Ukraine, a regional official said Wednesday." And there are tentative indications that Ukraine is moving:

Ukrainian forces are likely preparing to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, but open-source visibility on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will likely be limited and lag behind events.

Yesterday, the Ukrainians leaned forward on the idea that they are on the offense there. I have no idea of the scale, however. Is this a counter-offensive right now? Or more and bigger local counter-attacks searching for weak points to exploit?

So no more than a bit of tilt back, I'll say.

*I must admit I'm surprised that Russia's people have accepted the heavy troop casualties the war has created. Although perhaps the Russian people just don't know. Or won't admit they know. Could a broken Russian army reveal what Putin has deemed impermissible knowledge? Putin's unwillingness to draft replacements and instead rely on stealth mobilization indicates that casualties are a weakness, however.

UPDATE (Thursday): Is the Ukrainian counteroffensive "gathering momentum? And how will Russia's reaction affect that if true?

And how do 75,000 total Russian casualties--killed and wounded (and missing/captured?)--affect Russia's capacity to hold their gains?

ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

Well that's just stupid.

It's not so fun when it isn't other people suffering the effect of your decisions.

China's new super carrier. Should I feel sorry for them? Or relieved that China wants to police their trade empire rather than fight America? I may believe China would sacrifice its ex-Russian carrier as a distraction to take Taiwan. But not its new super carriers.

The other sailing guys: "Australian shipbuilder Austal, which has one of its ship building facilities in the United States, recently won a competition to build 11 of the new Coast Guard 4,500-ton Heritage class OPCs (Offshore Patrol Cutters)." 

Our public health officials lied to us.  Tar. Feathers. Figuratively, of course.

"Land acknowledgments" are stupid. They acknowledge conqueror's rights. Via Instapundit. I've noted that: "And for all the claim that Europeans destroyed indigenous people living at peace in the New World, recall that the tribes and empires conquered by Europeans were themselves the winners of New World conflicts among the people of the Americas prior to 1492 (and boy were they violent). That was the way of the world then. And the then-existing conflict is why Europeans found eager allies in the Americas to fight other Native Americans." The most recent European winners of territorial wars defeated the New World's most recent winners of territorial wars. I won't hold my breath until those posturing landowners "return" the land they sit on to the so-called "original" owners.

It amazes me that progressives seem to seriously believe Trump planned a "dog whistle" insurrection.

While virtual worlds don't impress me, wow do they open up worlds for those with disabilities, eh?

Iran has a history of announcing wonder weapons that never amount to much. Here's another one. Yawn.

How stable is China? Yikes. I've never ruled out a failure of the center there. And I've never assumed Chinese economic problems and instability rule out a foreign war.

Thoughts on Ukraine's American-made rocket launchers. Russia might win despite the price the Russians are paying. But maybe not if Ukraine keeps Western support. And I do not rule out that Ukraine may roll back some or all of Russia's conquests this year. Which is a big change from the assumed situation prior to the invasion. Even I thought Russia's over-rated military could bludgeon its way to a partial conquest by now. Although NATO is providing much more support than I expected. And even if Russia finally overwhelms Ukraine, if Russia pays a high price Russia might be too bloodied to try again--as the Finns achieved with their 1939-1940 defense. Resistance is not futile.

Huh: Reports from Russia on "a 'Free Buryatia' anti-war group bring to the fore the risk that Putin’s apparent desire to have non-Russians bear the brunt of the war at this stage could create domestic tension in these regions." Putin doesn't want too many ethnic Russians dying in his war. Will that work out?

Israel, Iran, Arabs, and just what is America’s policy this week?

What Ukraine wants to win the war.

NATO exercises in the Black Sea … carefully.

Air Force hypersonics.

God is their co-pilot?

The U. S. Creates a couple good jihadis in Somalia.

China gets some blowback to its financial and territorial aggressiveness.

Taiwan is ahead of schedule on its submarine program. They will have the same torpedoes as American subs. I hope they use the same missiles as our boats.

Rule of law update: America edition. It’s good to be a Democrat. Tip to Instapundit.

Gosh, why don’t those deplorable people want to enlist? 

We’re from the government and we’re here to … [checks notes] … undermine meat production. Tip to Instapundit.

I sometimes read that China is building its capacity to invade Taiwan and will soon have the capability to do so. But nobody ever says what key capabilities China will soon have. I think China has long had the capacity to invade. If the price is acceptable.

What exactly is happening with internal Russian politics?

Russia is trying to kidnap its way out of demographic collapse. In a modern era will the victims be new loyal citizens or a potential fifth column?

Very expensive hangar queens. FFS.

For Ukraine, Russia has more territorial ambitions. No matter how much Russia is hurting, they’ll talk like they’re winning. Why not, eh? The West might fall for it. Let's not help make Russian propaganda the reality.

The Navy wants 373 “battle force” ships. Define “battle force” please.

Yes, integrating and sustaining the variety of Western weapons sent to Ukraine is a challenge. Of course, it’s a problem only because Ukraine is still fighting hard. Could be worse.

Are carriers obsolete? Yes and no.

India wants a bigger and better navy.

Western countries will provide Ukraine with Western fighter jets. We’ve been telegraphing F-16s and F-15s.

Will we see defensive technology to counter improving offensive technology?

DIY parts.

But other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln? "[Biden's climate emergency gambit] efforts are constitutionally suspect, economically unsound, and politically unwise." Tip to Instapundit.

The Air Force is willing to send A-10s to Ukraine. Of course it is willing.

Are Chechen separatists going to exploit Russia's ongoing face plant in Ukraine?

The CIA director doesn't think Putin is ill.

The Army's recruiting problems. We could recruit volunteers during war. We can't recruit during a woke witch hunt. Maybe if we'd gotten rid of a lot of senior leaders after the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle there'd be more trust.

Moqtada al Sadr is pushing against corrupt Iraqis who enable Iranian influence. Is this just a means to crush opponents? I just don't trust him.

The enemy within.

Wary of past surface ship fiascos, the Navy looks toward a new destroyer.

The Army tested out its afloat prepositioned equipment stockpile in the Pacific.

The U.S. 56th Artillery Command practices in Europe. The God of War is demanding.

Additional American military assistance to Ukraine.

Poland will make a major arms purchase from South Korea.

Via Instapundit, will space renew American optimism? That's my hope for the West.

When maintaining your personal bank account is more important than maintaining your military. Iraq desperately needs rule of law.

Stupid deniers! Hot summers are climate; cold winters are weather. That's just Science!

Yes, there have been a lot of predictions about the Russian offensive soon culminating. But to be fair, Russia has contracted their active offensive front a great deal to cope with the declining power available that would have led to their offensive culminating on a wider front. And culminating points last until you restore your power--if your enemy allows it.

This is generally pretty good. But, "Trump was indifferent at best to the Kremlin’s election interference as long as it aimed mostly at swinging public opinion against Hillary Clinton." One, the Russian effort was minuscule and laughable. But more relevant, who was president during the 2016 campaign with the power to do something--yet did nothing? Well, not exactly "nothing" (see the third update).

From great weekend to planetary disaster with a little editorial work:

 

Norway to equip its F-35s with American Stormbreaker networked smart bombs. 

LOL!

Unpossible! I was told Taliban 2.0 would be eager for international approval!

Sweden and Finland add assets to NATO. I certainly want them to be security providers and not just security consumers. 

I have long been aware the government has a massive welfare state but does not measure the state aid when measuring income inequality. That way you never have to declare victory over poverty. Via Instapundit.

Sure. But our enemies can go that way, too. Who builds them better, builds more, programs them better, and integrates them into a network-centric force?

Russia and Ukraine signed deals to get Ukrainian grain and Russian grain and fertilizer exported again out of the Black Sea. Big if true.

The reality check on conventional warfighting doctrine.

Restoring American semiconductor production. Good goal. But will government subsidies help or hurt?

I have to admit, communist/anarchist summer camps have a fertile audience of people who believe in or recently believed in Santa Claus.

Turkey's military power is not as important to NATO now that Russia is pushed back from the Balkans and the Caucasus. And Turkey's ambitions under Erdogan challenge NATO interests in the region, too. Still, Turkey's ability to block Russian access through the Turkish straits is important. Also, can Turkey afford the military--especially the army--it has? Does it need it?

And Now For Something Completely Different

I've got a fever, come check it and see. There's something burning and rolling in me. We may not last but we'll have fun till it ends. C'mon, baby, read my bad meme thread.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

The Rising Sun Will Blind China

Japan is reacting to threats to its security by pushing toward a "normal" military. China won't like what it provoked.

 

China in particular has worried Japan for quite some time, as I posted more than 15 years ago:

Japan is reacting to potential threats from North Korea and China by bolstering their defenses and their alliance with America, as the annual report by Japan's Defense Agency makes clear[.]

Japan has the means to be a major military power:

A Japanese decision to build upon what is already a not-insignificant self-defense force will change the geopolitical reality of the Pacific. China is already confronted by the United States, operating at an extreme distance from its homeland. Washington can do this, but if Japan remains an ally, then the Japanese can assume an equal or even a leading role. The cost and risk of containing China would then decline for the United States. It would strengthen the informal Quad alliance, which comprises Australia, India, Japan and the United States. American control of the Western Pacific would depend on American guarantees but not a continual, large-scale presence.

Key to this is that the U.S. and Japan maintain their alliance. It endured since World War II as a relationship of unequals. Japan’s military will not surpass the American force, and the U.S. guarantees open global waterways. Japan would not have the ability to do that, and as a major exporter and an importer of raw materials, Japan relies on the U.S. global presence. Therefore, unlike before World War II, the U.S. and Japan share crucial interests within a relationship crafted over several generations. An alliance of the world’s largest and third-largest economies, in which Japan builds a significant military force as well as growing its economy, would redefine the balance of power in the Pacific with minimal danger of discord, at least for the foreseeable future.

Japan's more assertive attitude took time to be evident. And now we can see the return of Japanese naval aviation.

But how much will the Japanese people support? I imagine China's rulers will help subdue post-World War II pacifist attitudes, much as Putin shifted neutralist attitudes in Sweden and Finland to one favoring joining NATO. 

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here. 

Sailing On Empty

The Russian fleet is dying. Russia would be wise to let it die. But memories of Cold War glory and Soviet blue water sea power won’t allow Putin to take that step.

Can the Russian fleet survive?

What future does the Russian Navy have? While Russia’s naval forces have played an important role in the war their performance has been, at best, mixed. The Russian Navy has successfully blockaded ports and launched missiles against targets across Ukraine, but along the way it lost its Black Sea flagship, lost one of its most important amphibious warfare vessels, failed to ensure control of Snake Island, and failed to prosecute decisive amphibious operations in the Ukrainian littoral.

I consider large surface ships and a blue water navy in general to be a waste of Russian resources:

The fleet surely hurts. I've mentioned more than once that for such a large country, building a fleet capable of fighting for control of the oceans is foolish.

Given its huge land border, Russia needs a heavily armed coast guard and submarines (both ballistic missile submarines for a survivable nuclear deterrent and attack subs to protect them).

So obviously I hope Russia builds a blue water navy. And lots of super carriers.

Back to the initial article:

On the one hand, Russia enjoys the happy coincidence that its surface fleet cannot survive in nearly any conceivable conflict against a major power and that it likely can no longer afford to build or maintain a surface fleet. 

On the other hand, President Putin clearly values the prestige and intimidation factor that large, powerful surface ships can offer. It remains to be seen whether Russia will make the investments necessary to preserve the power projection capabilities offered by its surface fleet.  

With Putin, despite signs of sanity, the effects of time, evidence his army and air force desperately need investment that is going to the fleet, and disguised good luck, we may get the best of both worlds. He'll insist Russia's inadequate industrial base try to build prestige ships. And he'll fail spectacularly.

Will nobody in Russia tell Putin he's effing up royally?

NOTE: My most recent war coverage is here.