The Winter War of 2022 Becomes a War of Endurance?

Is the Winter War of 2022 doomed to become a drawn-out war of attrition?

Despite the apparent escalation of Ukraine's attacks in the south to achieve a breakthrough, confidence in the possibility of Ukrainian success is low in the West now. Ukraine might not conduct a successful counteroffensive this summer. If so, this is a problem:

This has become a war of endurance. Just as Putin must hope that Ukraine and its Western supporters will tire before Russia does, Ukraine and its backers must show that they can cope with the war’s demands for as long as necessary.

Another analyst is calling for Ukraine to prepare for a long war in light of the failure of Russian forces to crack immediately after Ukraine's summer counteroffensive began:

Pushing Ukraine to take the offensive may well do little more than help exhaust it and raise casualties. A war that many in the United States seem to tactically predict will somehow largely end this year, may also go on and on until one side breaks in the face of the strain and attrition or both sides become locked into a near stalemate that neither side knows how to win.

He thinks it may be dangerous for Ukraine to risk its military power in a futile effort to liberate territory now. I can't say he's wrong. But I can't say that Russia isn't teetering with nothing but a facade of confidence (maskirovka*) concealing their brittleness.

Failing to seize an opportunity to win is as big of an error as throwing your military power away in a futile effort:

If Ukraine can't achieve that Saratoga-level of victory, Western support for Ukraine might shift to simply helping Ukraine hold the line--with the risks of that kind of nuanced calculations on what is enough--rather than pushing Russia back further. NATO's financial, economic, and military stockpile expenditures might shift away from helping Ukraine win in favor of a ceasefire that actually rescues Russia from the worst costs of its invasion.

The stakes are high. Will that lead Ukraine to be too cautious out of fear of failure? Or possibly too bold in an attempt to achieve victory before it is too late?

Sadly, ordinary leaders often prefer the former decision to not lose because responsibility doesn't obviously fall on your decision. Outstanding leaders can risk the decision to win.

I've said Russia's size and GDP advantage over Ukraine don't automatically mean Russia has the edge. Ukraine has the West's GDP adding heft. And a 3:1 population advantage does not mean Russia can lose three times the soldiers in combat with equivalent results.

As to the will to win, it is often said Russia has more vital interests at stake so will outlast us.

But Ukraine has more will to win because its survival is at stake.

And while the West surely has lower interests than Russia, the burden on the wealthy West is relatively low financially. And no Western troops are fighting and dying. The West can't outlast Russia which is bleeding literally and financially? 

While I worry the long-war people are right, I don't assume Ukraine can't achieve a big battlefield victory this summer. It probably wouldn't end the war. I think Ukraine's failure to attack by the winter may have forfeited that option by giving Russia valuable time. 

But a battlefield victory would ease Ukraine's problems relative to Russia for a longer war. And keep in mind that a stalemate around the current lines is a Russian victory. It lets Russia regroup and prepare for another lunge into Ukraine in the future. Do that enough times and Ukraine will be conquered.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Strategypage is more optimistic about Ukraine's chances, noting the lack of Russian support for the frontline troops:

This lack of support has led to many Russian soldiers not fighting when ordered to attack or defend. The troops will prepare fortifications, operate artillery and plant mines and explosive devices, and this is what causes most Ukrainian casualties. The Ukrainian troops find fewer Russian soldiers actively attacking or even fighting back.

Russia has built formidable obstacles across the front. My hope has been that if Ukraine can push through the obstacles (fortifications, dragon's teeth, anti-tank ditches, minefields) that Russian troops will be less willing to fight. And may be less capable of maneuvering to respond to Ukrainian advances.

But Ukraine first has to push through the obstacles. That is proving more difficult than I thought it would be. I don't want to be deluded by my hopes that Russia's army is fragile. But I think its ground forces are fragile.  

It all depends on whether Ukraine's offensive can crack the ground forces. If Ukraine can't, the fragility can't be exploited. Sadly, Ukraine gave Russia the precious time to build a hard shell to shield what I think are demoralized troops.

UPDATE (Thursday): The reason for the stalemate is that Ukraine has adapted to its inability to push through the minefields: 

The New York Times on Wednesday reported that Ukrainian military commanders are now "focusing on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire." 

That is plausible. Sometimes attrition is necessary to enable maneuver. But sometimes you fail. Fingers crossed.

UPDATE (Friday): Assessing the campaign. As I noted above, sometimes attrition is not an alternative to maneuver as it is necessary to enable maneuver. This is in American Army doctrine, I'll add. Also, I agree that the West needs to perceive what Ukraine achieves as a worthy result of the West's support.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

*I'm embarrassed to notice recently that over time I seem to have dropped the 'k" and have remembered the term as "maskirova." My bad.

Weekend Data Dump

Taiwan spends too little on defense and spends on the wrong, expensive items? I think Taiwan needs those expensive items and agree it spends too little on defense. But I think spending much more on defense would allow it to buy those cheaper "asymmetric" weapons without undermining other needed capabilities. Ultimately, Taiwan must drive the invaders into the sea to avoid eventual disaster. Basically, I reject the "porcupine" defense concept.

How America makes NATO more effective and how NATO increases security for all its members.

For those who recall how the USSR outproduced Germany in World War II, recall that the West supplied the Russians with the raw materials and specialized equipment rather than throttle access to the means of production: "Russia ordered major increases in weapons production at the same time they declared details of the process a state secret. The real reason for this extra secrecy is that production is not going very well. Too many key components are not available from the usual foreign suppliers because of the sanctions." Add in corruption, and you have reason to doubt Putin's confidence he can outlast NATO-backed Ukraine.

In Australia, "the largest-ever Talisman Sabre exercise" is held, with many nations participating. 

Welcome to the Strait of Malacca: "The first of four German-built diesel-electric attack submarines has arrived in Singapore, the Southeast Asian nation’s Defence Ministry announced." Well, it's close.

This author suspects China's carriers would be air defense platforms protecting missile-carrying warships that would be the main offensive threat. The carrier could push out a defensive envelope farther from China's land airfields. This is reasonable. I think the first Chinese carrier will conduct a SINKEX with American carriers invited to the event.

How humiliating is this for Putin? "Less than a year ago, the White House was warning of 'unprecedented' military ties between Russia and Iran, but today, there are signs of increasing friction, with Moscow proving to be an unreliable partner."

Despite the media amplification of Democratic charges that Republicans are now extreme conservatives, it is the Democrats who have become more extreme: "In one of the biggest surprises revealed since the ratings began, there are twice as many Democrats with perfect zero conservative ratings in the House and Senate today than in 1971. And there are significantly fewer Republicans with 100% ratings in the House and Senate today than 51 years ago." WDC drags politicians to the left, it seems. This has been obvious to anyone who pays attention. Republicans have on average become more populist. Which in some disturbing ways is indistinguishable from New Deal Democratic policies, with different rhetoric. Tip to Instapundit.

Given the results of Koran burnings, they have all the hallmarks of Russian information operations against the West. And the Russians would be in bonus territory if the West responds by curtailing freedom of expression in response. 

You'd have to be crazy not to wear a hijab! This reflects the Iranian government's policies.

Ukraine might get F-16s in the autumn . It could have been faster.

Could China compel Russia to end the invasion and abandon plans to conquer Ukraine? And persuade Ukraine to give up land to Russia? I doubt basing this potential on the Saudi-Iran deal China presided over is evidence of this ability to get a deal. Although to be fair, the author accurately calls it a "minor deal". But if China does push for peace, China has decided not to pounce on Russia while it is busy in the West.

Follow the science opinion. So now being an opinion denier is horrible? Tip to Instapundit.

Bulgaria will send military aid to Ukraine, including a hundred Soviet armored vehicles.

Two drones hit buildings in Moscow, causing little damage. These seem like psychological warfare strikes given their tiny payloads.

The Biden administration shovels money at China in broad daylight.

Sure, China is selling equipment to Russia useful to its military. But if Germany restricted its provision of aid to Ukraine to such things, we'd be angry at Germany. China isn't perfect. But considering that "partnership without limits" with Russia, this is as good as it gets.

Yeah: "More than a year and half after Russian forces invaded Ukraine, land mines have become one of the most daunting issues for the Ukrainian counteroffensive." I would not be shocked if some states that signed the land mine ban treaty withdraw if they think they might need them to hold off an invader. The mines and dud shells/bombs will kill people for generations.

To Hell with the women's "national" soccer team for refusing to respect our national anthem before games. They don't want to represent America? Don't. Nobody is forcing them to play. So go home. Or someplace they think is better. Don't let the Statue of Liberty hit you in the ass on the way out. I'm sorry the minority of players who paid respect to our country have to suffer. May they do well. But the team as a whole? I actually hope they lose.

Russia has extended the age of reservist liability for service.

What an unexpected development: "Despite continued IEA (Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan) government denials, they appear to be tolerating the presence of al Qaeda personnel as well as TTP (the Pakistani Taliban). TTP support was expected but IEA insists it will not tolerate any Islamic terror groups. They are either lying or simply don’t have much control in many parts of the country."

The American biofuels industry harms endangered species and harms the environment. Tip to Instapundit. Funny enough, fossil fuels are biofuels made by the planet from ancient plants and animals. And now for something completely different:

Leadership. Related.

"The science" lied to us. And they wonder why people don't trust them. Blaming us for not trusting them! Scientists are people. People are flawed. Just being a scientist doesn't make a person less flawed. And don't get me going on the activists who amplify human bias in transmitting what the science says to the reporters to write about it. More reasons to scratch off  "the science" in that "In this house we believe" sign you put on your lawn.

A "frozen conflict" that worked well for us. Western analysts fling panties at Russia's allegedly brilliant use of this strategy. The sound of crickets overwhelms me on the Korean peninsula.

This woman is a moron and you shouldn't believe her. On anything. Including her name which she can't seem to settle on.

Positive thoughts about the next Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Franchetti. Fingers crossed. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine's problems in its counteroffensive in many ways are because of the slowness of Western help in supplying weapons and new capabilities to Ukraine. The proper response to Ukraine's slow counteroffensive is not to proclaim Ukraine's defeat but to accelerate weapons and capabilities to let Ukraine change that.

Thoughts on organizing Army regimental combat teams for megacity combat. I'm all on board doing it well. I like the recognition of fighting under the city. I am concerned we will engage in that form of combat because we can and not because we should to advance the campaign objective.

The commander of a MEU practicing EABO in the Pacific emphasized "In the vast Pacific, 'it’s all about logistics,' Meyer said." Good. That aspect concerns me a great deal. I had thoughts about these types of operations in 2017 in Proceedings.

The latest American military assistance package for Ukraine.

The Russians don't want to fight America while they are faltering fighting Ukraine. But the Russians do want to scare America into scaling back help for Ukraine: "A Russian fighter jet fired flares directly at an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over Syria on Sunday, damaging its propeller, U.S. Air Forces Central announced Tuesday[.]" I assume the Russians are trying to encourage Iran to attack American forces in eastern Syria. We should openly give Ukraine 10 long-range missiles every time the Russians screw with us like that. And quietly ship more if Iran attacks our troops.

As I've said, I used to respect Democrats on free speech: "In an identically worded poll five years ago, Democrats and Republicans favored free speech online by roughly 3 to 2 margins. Today, Republicans still favor the First Amendment by about that much. But Democrats have turned against it by even more." But that was many decades ago.

Sh*t got real: "Large Scale Exercise 2023 kicks off next month and will link 25,000 sailors and Marines across 22 time zones, seven fleets, six U.S. combatant commands in a blend of live and virtual training that will test the suppositions of key warfighting concepts for both services." This is great power "competition."

I've said I fear that by firing generals that Putin might accidentally find a competent commander. So this is a humorous and reassuring bonus of the Wagner Revolt: "The outcome made it much harder to demote his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, or top commander, Valery Gerasimov, despite their demonstrated incompetence and loss of support among the officer class. But loyalty comes first."

Also: "Kyiv can add to the anxieties in Moscow, demonstrating that no part of Russia is secure, punishing Russian forces at the front and opportunistically liberating territory even if it is not quite what military planners intended." I've said exactly this, too.

I noted that a combination of Belarus hosting Wagner troops and Russian nukes (if real warheads are sent, can Putin be sure Belarus won't gain control?) seems more like a Belarusian effort to push Russia away. Says ISW of the Lukashenko-Putin meeting in Russia: "Lukashenko was likely trying to leverage Putin’s concern over the Wagner Group throughout the entire visit to Russia to gain favorable conditions in Belarusian-Russian relations while deflecting Putin’s demands for closer integration into the Union State and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine."

Is Russia running out of military options despite increasing worry in the West about Ukraine's counteroffensive? Is Russia continuing to attack in Luhansk a sign of Russian strength? Or a sign that Putin cannot shift to the strategic defensive to conserve military power to repel Ukraine's counteroffensive? Is anything less than a clear offensive win a danger to Putin's control of his military and Russia?

Sounds good: "The United States Coast Guard is in talks with Pacific Island countries to expand its maritime law enforcement role by allowing U.S. officers to board and search vessels suspected of illegal activity within their economic zones, officials said."

China would certainly want any war involving America to be short: " If China did face the degree of sanctions Russia received, the results would be catastrophic because, while the Chinese economy is much larger than Russia’s, it is much more sensitive to major disruptions. While China is still a communist police state, there is greater risk of major internal unrest if the economy is mismanaged. Incurring heavy sanctions is seen as mismanagement." Although I suspect China could cope better than we hope they can. Or China might go to war against Russia to avoid economic problems.

Huh. The police arrested "climate change" that was blamed for the devastating July 2022 Yosemite National Park fire. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine learned after 2014. Russia is learning now.

The uselessness of the Iran nuclear deal framework to block an Iranian nuclear weapons program is highlighted by the ridiculous amount of time Iran has to formally deny in writing it is doing anything wrong.

Democrats love Iran's mullahs so much that nothing they do can tarnish the shine: "Iran is deploying mass surveillance tactics, including CCTV tracking, to crack down on women who defy compulsory veiling, human rights activists have warned." This never get old:

That's certainly a start: "The Marine Corps stood up its first-ever Tomahawk cruise missile battery at Camp Pendleton, Calif., last week." No word if they have anti-ship capabilities, too.

Speculating about China's "string of pearls" bases across the Indian Ocean in an effort to secure lines of supply to the Middle East and Africa. I wonder if China's anti-ship ballistic missiles are intended for that front rather than primarily being a western Pacific weapon.

Iran is helping Russia build a drone factory. It should be finished early next year. Will it really dramatically increase Russia's drone stockpile? 

Treating Ukraine's wounded troops. At least the Ukrainian troops get medical treatment. Lord knows how many Russian troops don't--then die.

Left-wing Israeli reservists who claim they won't serve because of needed supreme court reforms (but I don't have an opinion on the specific reforms passed) are putting Israel at risk: "The crisis sweeping Israel has become a focal point for its enemies across the Middle East who have convened top-level meetings to weigh the turmoil and how they might capitalise on it, sources familiar with the discussions say."

Prioritizing Taiwan over Ukraine right now won't help Taiwan. Taiwan has frankly been shirking its defense responsibilities for decades with absurdly low defense spending. If the danger period for Taiwan is soon, it's kind of too late to shove weapons onto Taiwan to deter China. All we can hope is that Taiwan got the wake-up call and will prioritize defense in time. And hope China isn't thinking of attacking soon. Shorting Ukraine on weapons now just gives Russia a better chance of winning now. 

I was shocked at some talk of 100,000 Russian troops in Luhansk. Although I doubted they could possibly be well equipped. Seems to be phantom soldiers.

At least they do it openly and don't deny it: "Soldiers in the West African country of Niger have announced a coup on national TV."

Ten more long-range missiles for Ukraine, I say: "A Russian fighter jet fired flares and struck another U.S. drone over Syrian airspace on Wednesday[.]"

Lithuania will buy up to 54 Leopard II tanks.

Russia tested their national Internet cut off from the world. 

Yeah: "The growing use of small, armed USVs as cheap cruise missiles created the need for equally inexpensive systems to deal with this threat." I proposed drone combat air patrols in Army magazine.

Ukraine could have manpower problems. What they have needs to be better trained. Older men may need to be brought in to cover rear area security to free up younger men for combat units. And women may need to be more fully brought in. Ukraine should also look at their refugees abroad. And recruit foreigners more directly.

There is no such thing as a "benevolent dictatorship." Please put a certain panty-flinger on suicide watch.

Question: Which one is the client state? "Russia's defence minister was photographed this week viewing banned North Korean ballistic missiles with leader Kim Jong Un at a military expo in Pyongyang, signalling deeper ties between the two countries as they face off with the United States."

The Army needs to figure out how to better sell volunteering and not just rely on money, because serving "remains a choice of citizenship as well, one that must be explained and cultivated with every succeeding generation."

America shouldn't want to signal it can be bullied: "Dialing back Western Pacific freedom of navigation operations and military flights runs a “very high risk” of sending the wrong message to Beijing about U.S. intentions in the Indo-Pacific, security experts said Wednesday." Allies and friends thinking we can be pushed around has consequences.

Oh? "In the view of the CCP, from 1950 to 1953, an immensely weak China, reeling from its own recently concluded civil war, fought the titanic power of the United States and its Western allies to a standstill, establishing that Beijing’s strategic demands could not be ignored." China agreed to a ceasefire because it was being hammered. On the bright side from the CCP's perspective, the CCP sent a lot of former KMT soldiers to die in Korea. As for American memory? To be fair, it took a while to see the victory.

Did Japan say it will defend Taiwan? Tip to Instapundit. Well yes, yes it did. 

China's navy is growing and the United States Navy isn't. That takes time to address--if our shipyards can be expanded to handle it.  In the short run we have to maximize our ability to fire anti-ship missiles on existing ships. And auxiliary cruisers can fill the gap until the Navy expands.

There is a naval dimension in the Winter War of 2022. Sure. But the war will be decided on the land. 

I don't think Russia adds much to China's naval power. 

Leftism drives you crazy? After decades of "science" claiming conservatives are awful, this is welcome--regardless of its validity. 

Well, yeah. Western tanks aren't immune to land mines. As you may recall I said Ukraine's old Soviet tanks would do the heavy lifting in a counteroffensive (this is the earliest mention I can find) .

Stupid policies can work for a while--or more accurately not immediately prove disastrous--when built on a foundation of good policies that provide a cushion of success and forward good momentum. But eventually the new vector of failure takes hold and accelerates. See Venezuela. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia hammered the Ukrainian air base whose planes use the Storm Shadow air-to-surface missile. The extent of damage is not known.

Well that's disturbing: "An F-35A Lightning II fighter crashed at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, last October when turbulent air confused its avionics, rendering the jet uncontrollable, an Air Force investigation has found."

American Abrams tanks are likely to be in the field by September.

An Army construction brigade was reactivated in Europe. Logistics.

Red Storm Rising Shrinking: Russia builds two new missile-armed corvette classes.

Britain accidentally sent defense emails to Mali (suffix ML) instead of the American military (suffix MIL). This after America did the same thing. Is this a Russian effort to misdirect emails with that typo? I really don't understand how emails went to a different address rather than just get bounced back.

I have no problem "understanding" a potential enemy. Exactly: "Certainly, we should never excuse or tolerate China’s abusive conduct based on their history." Understanding should not be an excuse to retreat.

Once again, the Air Force promises to destroy enemy ground forces, promising friendly ground forces will be spared the need to defeat them. Maybe the Golden Horde--which I've noted before--will do the job for sure this time!

Improving NATO cooperation in the Mediterranean Sea with U.S.-Italian cooperation.  This will help make sure any Russian flotilla in the Mediterranean leads a short but exciting life during a war. And southern NATO states are concerned with illegal migrants and potential jihadis crossing the sea.

A Navy amphibious warship still can't sail out of port after two years of being overhauled in port. Serenity now!

A planet ten times as big as Earth is somewhere on a distant and probably off-plane orbit. I wonder if it is even in a position that we could reasonably see it with our best telescope? Tip to Instapundit.

In principle I'm not against quiet conversations with nuclear-armed Russia to keep things non-paranoid. But if it extends to talks about the war? No. We can see what happens when we cut a deal without our ally involved when you look at the outcomes for South Vietnam and Afghanistan--the enemy wins. Tip to Instapundit.

Unable to convince newly conquered Ukrainians to like being "rescued" by Russia, Russia has gone to the Plan B ethnic cleansing route to quiet their conquests.

Even as Ukraine loses equipment pushing through Russian minefields and defensive lines, Ukraine will be able to recover and repair many--or break up equipment too damaged to repair for spare parts. Combat since World War II showed the importance of controlling ground long enough to recover armored fighting vehicle losses. 

Sweden is worried that Koran desecration will lead Islamists to retaliate against its citizens. And Iranian officials are calling for retaliation against Sweden. Sweden should realize that sacrificing freedom of speech to appease the angry is a losing game considering what offends them. And second, as I've mentioned before, imagine Iran's power to retaliate if it had a nuclear weapons deterrent? 

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on July 29 that the United States believes Russia's defense minister is in North Korea to secure supplies of weapons to aid the stalled invasion of Ukraine."

Russian strikes are trying to cut off Ukraine's Danube River grain export route. So far without lasting results.

"Understand" them. But don't give up our freedoms in a futile effort to keep them happy: "The leader of Lebanon’s Shiite militant group Hezbollah said Saturday that if governments of Muslim-majority nations do not act against countries that allow the desecration of the Quran, Muslims should 'punish' those who facilitate attacks on Islam's holy book."

The tyranny of the Israeli supreme court. 

WT Actual F? "Why would a COVID lab run by a shady Chinese company be operating in Reedley, CA in the central San Joaquin Valley? The lab, which was supposed to be an empty building, was discovered by Reedley city code enforcement officers when they saw a garden hose attached to the building and investigated." Tip to Instapundit.

The U.S. is increasing military cooperation with Australia, including welcome logistics and manufacturing capabilities. America has been focused on the Japan-South Korea corner of Asia for a long time.

Huh: "Israel recently revealed that it is negotiating the sale of 200 older Merkava tanks. The sale value of these tanks is estimated to be more than $50 million. There are two potential customers, one in Europe and one somewhere else." And much more, including the black box of targeting decisions.

Reminder: "Authorities in Moscow temporarily closed the capital's Vnukovo airport after an overnight drone attack on July 30 injured one person and damaged two office buildings." I'm not happy that Ukraine hits Moscow. I'd rather they remind Russians on a higher plane. But the warheads are so small that they are clearly for information war purposes. Russia is a far worse violator on this issue. 

The United States announced a military aid package for Taiwan.

Respect the Delusions!

I'm tired of people making excuses for Russia's brutal war of aggression.

Of course America should pursue its interests in Ukraine. But this formulation for judging objectives favors Russia, no? 

What is Putin aiming at and, maybe more importantly, what does Putin think NATO and the West are aiming at?

When weighing those two views, what Russia wants can be based on their statements and actions about needing buffers and restoring their imperial holdings in the west. Which we know has no geographic limits. 

But on the other side, we have to weigh Putin's paranoid delusions about what NATO/Western ambitions are? Really? 

Russia has been NATO's best recruiter. Yet while NATO is alarmed and rearming, it is still for the purpose of stopping Putin's aggression--not marching on Moscow.

Seriously, we should only want to "understand" our enemy enough to defeat them--not to make excuses for accepting their aggression.

Yet another variation of the "Let the Wookie win" strategy.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Divisional Boys are Back in Town

The Army has brigade combat teams (BCTs) now. They are self-contained combined arms units with logistics capabilities to act on their own. But now that peer enemies are a threat in large-scale conventional warfare, the need for divisions to orchestrate larger battles and campaigns is seen as a necessity again.

Brigades traditionally had infantry and armor with mortars for fire support and limited organic assets. They relied on the parent division for logistics, major fire support, engineers, and other assets attached to the brigade for specific missions.

Army reorganization begun in 2003 but under discussion since the 1990s spread out the combat and support assets held by the division to the brigades, making them mini-divisions. They were called brigade combat teams to distinguish them. The divisions remained for largely administrative duties. And for historical continuity. The BCTs worked really well for rotating troops by unit--which by maintaining unit cohesion kept our Army intact despite cries the Iraq War was "breaking" the Army.

Army divisions are returning as a command echelon rather than an administrative element:

Between 2003 and 2004, as brigades were standardized or made "modular," assets that had existed mostly at divisions since their creation -- a signals battalion; military intelligence battalion; artillery brigade; and a brigade full of support and logistics, so-called "enabler" units --  were sent to brigades in company- or battalion-sized elements. ...

Some worry that bringing the units back from the brigade to division level risks losing lethality at the point where it is most needed on the battlefield -- that it will be adding potentially redundant layers of bureaucracy that will slow decision-making, decrease flexibility, degrade unit flexibility and trust, and reduce interoperability.

The brigade combat teams worked great in counterinsurgencies (COIN). I think the division with mere "brigades" that will get necessary augmentation for specific missions is again needed. 

Critics are worried about losing combat assets to the division level. I concede that twenty years open up the question of what assets a brigade should have in-house. Just restoring the organization of 2001 is not appropriate. 

But pulling back assets that the division commander with a broader horizon to see the bigger picture can deploy as needed is a good idea. Trying to pull assets from BCTs to add to another BCT that needs it to survive or to exploit opportunities will take too long. Better to have them at the division.

Brigades will be weaker. But the ability to reinforce units who need more power and to coordinate multiple combat brigades into one fight will increase with controlling divisions. I think brigades need the division for a fight that exceeds their more limited horizons that worked fine for COIN. 

Heck, maybe our infantry divisions can get separate tank battalions to dole out as needed to its brigades, which I advocated in Army magazine.

Although it will take a while to get the division staff back in shape because that "muscle memory" is long gone.

Them wild-eyed boys that had been away are back in town. Maybe my pre-9/11 thoughts in Military Review on organizing the Army's brigades could be useful. 

This is a version housed on this blog I corrected for editing that garbled the text when my charts were removed for publication. I also deleted the links to old links that go to a now-corrupted site, as long as I'm linking the post (never go to those old Geocities site variants!). 

Also, I'm embarrassed that I didn't notice I spelled Macgregor's name wrong in the notes until just now. Yikes. This is why I rarely read my articles after publication. No good can come of it! 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

At the Intersection of Humanitarianism and Information Operations

America should quietly back an effort to create an international mine sweeping effort in the Black Sea. That would protect grain exports to a hungry world and make it clear Russia is preventing the grain from flowing.

Russia is blockading the world: 

Russia has laid sea mines in the Black Sea that could interfere with Ukrainian grain exports, the White House announced Wednesday.

Ukraine has gotten some interest in shipping the grain in defiance of Russia's threats:

There is still interest from ship owners in carrying Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea — if they can mitigate the risk, according to a major shipping group. And that’s a big if.

Recall we organized an international mine sweeping effort in the Red Sea when Libya dropped sea mines there:

Operation Intense Look was launched in response to the Red Sea and Gulf of Suez mine crisis, when naval mines were discovered in these vital shipping lanes. Libya's mining of the Red Sea in 1984 focused attention on the need to protect shipping lanes leading to the Suez Canal and the need for more advanced mine countermeasure vessels.

I reject the proposal that NATO states should be directly involved in such an operation. And I absolutely reject reflagging grain ships under the American flag as we did during the Iran-Iraq War to protect oil tankers from Iranian attacks. Russia is not Iran. Nor any of the other states America stood up to for the defense of free use of the seas. And even with Iran we ended up in a shooting war with Iranian forces intermittently. I don't think we really want that now. Russia is getting hammered and I'd rather not change the terms of the fight with extra complications.

But NATO could support from a distance a multinational coalition of states that rely on the food exports:

Russia’s withdrawal from a UN-and Turkish-brokered deal to allow the export of grain from Ukrainian ports again threatens the food security of millions living in drought- and famine-affected regions around the world.

Certainly there is pressure from within the U.N. to resume grain shipments. And can Russia be confident this ploy will attract supporters rather than alienate current supporters?

Maybe a modularized auxiliary cruiser mothership, The Rescue Queen, could be put together and transferred to that coalition's control as a mother ship to support the operation away from NATO land bases. 

Sure, Russia could shoot at the grain ships:

Russia's Defence Ministry said on Friday that its Black Sea Fleet had practised firing rockets at surface targets in a live fire exercise, two days after it warned that ships heading to Ukraine's Black Sea ports could be considered military targets.

But I bet the Russians would prefer to let ships hit mines they were warned about rather than actively shoot at ships. That looks really bad.

The mine clearing effort would both help feed hungry people and rally non-Western countries to oppose Russia's war on Ukraine. That sounds better than putting the burden on America and making countries worry about a general war in Europe that could spread to Asia and draw in many more states before it ends.

Although the Russians are bombing Ukraine's grain export infrastructure and food storage sites, perhaps in an effort to make an international response moot.

UPDATE: This seems prudent:

NATO said Wednesday it was stepping up surveillance of the Black Sea region as it condemned Russia’s exit from a landmark deal that allowed Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea.

Maybe it will be the foundation for an international escort flotilla of countries that need the food. 

UPDATE: Limits:

The U.S. does not plan to send any assets to the Black Sea amidst tensions over the Russian withdrawal from the U.N.-Turkey brokered grain deal, the Pentagon said Tuesday.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Deal of the Century

The only way Russia can repair the damage it has inflicted on relations with the West by invading Ukraine is to end the war and become an asset for containing China.

Russia has been so brutal in its illegal invasion of Ukraine that even with the end of the war, NATO will continue to arm up with a focus on finally stopping the open aggressive intent of Russia under its current leadership as it continues to prepare to expand its territory in the west. 

Russia's big plan to cope with NATO and China has fallen apart. Russia needs a bold change to regain great power status. And perhaps more importantly, Putin may need it to survive.

If Russia withdraws from Ukraine, stops trying to paint NATO as their enemy, and if Russia pivots to defend their territory from China's threat, we may have a basis for a mutually beneficial deal: 

The armed confrontation in Ukraine will continue until the West gives up plans to dominate and defeat Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with an Indonesian newspaper published on Wednesday.

Well, good news Sergei! Mission accomplished!

Until Russia started acting aggressive, NATO was dissolving before our eyes. Western states were disarming and defense spending was declining in real terms. Many in America wondered why we even kept NATO. America's military had largely gone home, down to an Army presence of only a paratrooper brigade in Italy and a Stryker brigade in Germany.

Clearly, if Russia isn't attacking its western neighbors, the West has no major problem with Russia that it believes requires military force to resolve.  As I've observed many times:

"Face it, if Russian rulers had any sense, they'd make peace with NATO and Ukraine in order to make Europe a safe rear area to deploy military power east to block China before Russia experiences further imperial shrinkage.

But no, Russia could not see that. Russia slowly galvanized NATO states to first recognize the threat and then slowly react by rebuilding military power. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine has accelerated that slow trend. 

At the other end of their country, Russia can see it is getting very little from its partnership "without limits" with China. And China, having sucked old Soviet technology out of Russia is probably realizing from the war that the Russians have little of use to offer China any more. China's frenemy with temporary benefits has little to offer now:

Russia essentially aimed China at America. But Russia's usefulness to China as a fire sale for Soviet technology is running out.

And I think Russia is loudly aggressive toward NATO in part to hide Russia's appeasement of China to secure its Far East while Russia tries to move past post-Soviet Russian weakness.

And really, as China threatens neighbors with its growing military and economic power, Russia has a lot in common with those potential victims.

Sure, if Ukraine is having problems getting in NATO, nobody should expect NATO to extend its Article V guarantees all the way to the Amur River. But Russia can see from the war in Ukraine that the West can be a big help even for a country that isn't a formal ally.

Yet as I mentioned when I argued in Military Review for an Army role in INDOPACOM for containing China using its core competency of large-scale conventional warfare:

is it out of bounds to wonder if Russia one day might value the potential power of an American contingency expeditionary force to help Russia resist irredentist Chinese claims to portions of Russia’s far east that China lost in the nineteenth century?

I know that's a major shift in alignment. Many will argue there is no way can a country bloodied by poor performance at war dare to break with its more powerful partner!

Such a flip is unheard of!

Yet Russia has to do something big to make up for the damage to its reputation by invading Ukraine, and threatening it and NATO countries with nuclear weapons. Going all in against China might be the only way to salvage something positive from invading Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has to rebuild its military. The ground forces are shattered, the air force is mostly a waste of money, and the navy is small and unlikely to get many resources given the needs of building decent ground and air power. My suggestions could be appropriate.

And Russia had best hurry before China decides Russia is a better victim than partner.

I've wanted to flip Russia--but not at the price of throwing Ukraine under the bus. I even hoped Biden was trying to do that before Russia invaded Ukraine. Will a costly war be the lever that finally flips Russia?

Only Putin can go to NATO. Will he to save himself? And save Russia?

UPDATE: Of course, Russia may think it doesn't face a threat that requires it to repair relations with the West as long as China thinks it needs to sell dual-use equipment to Russia:

China is ignoring any criticism of its military exports because China wants to see Russia at least survive its poor decision to invade Ukraine. China openly criticized Russia for this but wants to minimize the damage.

But how long will China try to minimize the damage to Russia before deciding that pouncing on Russia would be more profitable? This pressure should encourage the West to keep supporting Ukraine to give China a dilemma, too.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Some People Think Nuanced Words are Magical Peace Spells

I recall TDS-unhinged people nearly panicked out of fear there could be a US-North Korea nuclear war. That seemed completely nuts. I had zero worries about that. Let's recall those stirring months of fear bouncing around in the heads of some people.

Just because those officials were worried about nuclear use doesn't mean their worries were valid:

Less than a year into Donald Trump’s presidency, top homeland security officials were so alarmed about escalating tensions with North Korea that they held multiple meetings to prepare for a nuclear attack on American soil, according to a forthcoming book by Miles Taylor, who was a top official in the department at the time.

I don't think North Korea was likely to attack because it would mean their total destruction in a counter-strike. I strongly doubt North Korea had functional nuclear weapons capable of reaching American soil. 

Note too that at the end we are told the possibility of Trump starting a war was remote:

“This is the first time to my knowledge that DHS thought there was the possibility, however remote, of Trump actually starting a war and us having to prepare for the nuclear fallout in the homeland,” he told POLITICO in an interview.

And I imagine such meetings about a nuclear threat from somewhere took place under every president since Truman--despite so-called tight "scripts" for what should be said about nukes. Crises over North Korean nuclear threats have been common for thirty years. Remember, DHS is new since 9/11. So their first such meeting is a low bar.

And the threat was not direct nuclear attack but fallout reaching American territory. Which explains why this was a meeting in DHS and not DOD. 

This whole story is meant to imply North Korea and America came close to exchanging nuke strikes. And that just isn't true if you make it past the headline and read the story to the end. 

Which is the whole point.

Further, we've had many crises over nukes despite past presidents following the script. I recall being worried they could escalate to war in both 1994 and in 2009. I had some worries about a war early in the Trump administration--because of North Korea and not Trump. But no worries about a nuclear strike on America.

This is just a book promo by a proud anti-Trumper bureaucrat passed along by media happy to indulge in a political attack. Admit it, they fear Trump more than they fear actual nuclear-armed enemies. Indeed, these types usually claim those enemies are justified in wanting nukes to deter us.

FFS, these people don't worry that Russian blatant and frequent actual nuclear threats will provoke us into using nukes out of fear. They don't worry North Korea will carry out their nuclear sabre-rattling threats. No, the same type of people who panicked that Trump's words would push North Korea to use nukes also worry Russian nuclear threats mean Russia will strike and urge us to retreat to avoid that. They urge us to talk nicely--finely scripted, no doubt--to North Korea.

But finely scripted American words will just convince such paranoid nutballs that we are hiding our evil intentions! The bureaucratic faith in the right words has a long history, eh?

Nuclear weapons supposedly deter enemies. But for too many Americans, only America is deterred by the threat of nukes and compelled to talk softly and make concessions. In their world, enemies who make nuclear threats need to be given concessions to ease their concerns and quiet them.

The author seems to be throwing a fit that Trump wasn't worried about what was frightening him and thwarting the book author's stalwart efforts to save the republic from a threat that in his mind was the biggest threat to America.

Finally, foreigners don't parse the fine gradations of meaning as the authors of those scripts think, IMO. 

Okay, this started out as a short passage in a weekend data dump. But the self-serving "but our democracy!" nonsense just pushed me to a (dignified) rant. Lord knows I have mixed feelings about Trump. But his enemies are so uniformly determined to turn any issue dial to eleven that it offends my sense of rationality.

The stupid just never stops.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Passes Judgment on Russian Army Reforms

Russia's ground forces with their multiple organizations (called the "army" here for shorthand) was reformed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was never as glorious as it was portrayed. But it only has to be good enough to provide a victory. That ultimate judgment has yet to be made.

This author writes that Russia has a large crappy army and a small good one. The latter was supposed to  only conduct small wars:

In some ways, two Russian armies invaded Ukraine: one a small, professionalized, and modernized force with experience in smaller, lower-intensity conflicts; the other, a larger, primarily conscript force with little operational experience. The defining characteristic of Russia’s first year of war in Ukraine was the destruction of that first army outside of Kyiv and in the vicinity of Kharkiv and Kherson. The future of the second army remains in question.

Well, sort of. Depending on how you define "small, professionalized, and modernized". I guess I'd say "adequate." The over-rated BTG was designed for the small wars. And in this post I added another flaw of the BTG I did not appreciate (and I really should have before it was pointed out). 

Russia certainly started to build an army that could defeat Ukraine. But it did not succeed. 

I did not buy the hype Putin spread to so many in the West, especially after the Crimea takeover. 

But I admit that Russia is seemingly muddling through their invasion despite low morale, high casualties, and internal Russian drama. Which is actually impressive. It may be enough. And the Russians seem a little more aggressive on the ground in the east.

I still think Ukraine has the edge. We may just not see it. But Ukraine needs to accomplish something significant with that edge while it has it--and while the West is willing to arm it.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Hmmm:

The main thrust of Ukraine’s nearly two-month-old counteroffensive is now underway in the country’s southeast, two Pentagon officials said on Wednesday, with thousands of reinforcements pouring into the grinding battle, many of them trained and equipped by the West and, until now, held in reserve.

UPDATE (Thursday): Some backpedaling. U.S. says this still may be shaping operations.

NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

Weekend Data Dump

Just saying I've been a China skeptic for a long time: "Like the old Soviet Union, China’s economic growth is coming from moving peasants to city factories. And even the most productive peasant turned into the most inefficient factory worker will produce more GDP and bump up national statistics."

And now for something completely different:

This is a problem: "To gain ground, Ukrainian forces have to make their way through a variety and density of Russian land mines they never imagined." It is also a problem for those who want to ban the weapons because if the mines ultimately defeat Ukraine's counteroffensive this will demonstrate how useful they are for defending territory.

Huh: "A Chinese naval flotilla set off on Sunday to join Russian naval and air forces in the Sea of Japan in an exercise aimed at "safeguarding the security of strategic waterways", according to China's defence ministry." Why would China want experience operating in the Sea of Japan and seeing how well Russia's fleet works?

The enduring DC-3--now back in Navy service!

Retired. Extremely Dangerous (to most things on the battlefield). 

$39 billion in student loan debt wasn't "cancelled" by Biden. The debt was lifted from those getting the benefit of the loans and Biden put the responsibility on taxpayers. Including those who didn't take out such loans or who paid them off. Yeah, that's what we want to incentivize.

One officer's view: "Granting key positions to senior officers who have demonstrated their willingness to compromise their integrity, their oaths, and the physical and moral health of the troops, is a clear and unnecessary strategic threat. As Americans, we need to clearly and unequivocally declare our loss of confidence in these hollow shells pretending to be military leaders." But I worry the officer is absolutely correct about the deficiencies of our flag officers.

Should the U.S. outsource warship construction and maintenance to South Korean and Japanese shipyards? I'd rather have our own. But I know I've raised the option given the problems we have. Although yeah, protecting our technology would be a problem. But the shipyard problem is real and China has an advantage. And that latter author brings up an issue that has long bugged me. Sure, our ships on average need to be larger to cross vast oceans and fight. But numbers matter. And we can't build or repair nearly enough.

Is disarray in the officer corps irrelevant to the Russian military's willingness to endure tremendous casualties and keep fighting? Hard to argue against that given that so far it has been true. But I have my doubts that this immunity still holds true--if Ukraine puts enough pressure on the Russian ground forces.

Okay: "Russia said Monday it had terminated an agreement allowing Ukraine to ship out grain from its ports in the Black Sea." Russia says the deal is unfair to them. 

Sure, not admitting Ukraine to NATO while it is at war with Russia encourages Russia to refuse to end the war. But we really shouldn't let Ukraine join now, which is basically a NATO declaration of war on Russia. The solution to the dilemma is to make sure Russia loses the war.

No! Way! "Taliban authorities have further increased restrictions on women and girls in Afghanistan in recent months, including in education and employment, the U.N. said in a report on the human rights situation issued Monday." Shocking. I know.

Tunisia has been a launching point for illegal immigrants arriving in Europe. Tunisia and the EU have a deal to combat that. No worries. As long as Turkey and Russia can keep Libya in chaos there will be a path to send migrants north to put pressure on the Europeans for concessions on other issues.

Uh oh: "North Korea's Kim Yo Jong, sister of leader Kim Jong Un, said on Monday that the United States should avoid any 'foolish act' that could put its security at risk and rejected offers of talks as a ploy, state news agency KCNA reported." Apparently,  we should just know what we did wrong without her having to tell us. And now for something completely different:

Republicans should not develop Biden Derangement Syndrome. Calling up reservists for European duty is not a step to going to war. It may be damning of our active military's inability to fill the slots needed. But it is not war mobilization. Still, this suspicion is at least in part collateral damage from the flag officers getting woke--or at best woke allies or woke adjacent.

Exactly: We can be nice to Russia after they lose their war with Ukraine. Being nice to get a deal risks more war and eventual defeat. Remember, Russia already did this with the Minsk II agreement after their first invasion in 2014-2015 that was supposed to lead to peace.

Russia's army has been fighting hard enough from their fortifications and behind minefields. Despite poor morale, degraded equipment and supplies, and troubled leadership. But are the Russian troops "fit for trench warfare only" as so many troops became on the World War I Western front? And as many Iraqi troops became during the Iran-Iraq War, for that matter. If so, if the Ukrainians manage to punch through, those Russian units might fold pretty quickly because they lack the ability to maneuver effectively.

Oh those friends we haven't made yet! "A US senior defense official said Iran, Russia, and Syria are cooperating to pressure the US to withdraw forces from Syria. This is consistent with CTP’s assessment that Iran’s military buildup in eastern Syria may be to achieve hegemony." You just know Iran will get Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0 as a reward when this is over. Democrats love Iran so much they will forgive Iran for supporting the suddenly and oddly hated Russia.

Diluting available weapons, manpower, and supplies: A non-border Russian government is forming a territorial defense unit; and the Russian National Guard--Putin's personally loyal military force--will get armored vehicles and other heavy equipment. Where does this leave the army in the pecking order for support?

Wagner is finally moving men to Belarus. It will train Belarusian troops in three special purpose units. Add in nuclear weapons nominally under Russian control sent to Belarus plus the fact that Belarus has not damaged its military by fighting in the war. Everyone says Belarus is increasingly under Russia's control. Which seems odd now that Russian military power is so depleted. A suspicious man could be forgiven for thinking Lukashenko is planning a declaration of independence--whether overtly or quietly to let Putin pretend all is well.

Hmmm: "At Joint Base Lewis-McChord's air show just outside of Tacoma, Washington, this past weekend, onlookers and families saw tactical military jets, high-performance sports cars and risqué models dancing on stage in skintight red,white and blue bikinis[.]" I've said I'm against this stuff around children regardless of who is dancing. But I have to ask if this has been ongoing or something new this year? Because I would not be shocked to find this is a first of the kind event and designed to leverage this into approving drag shows on bases aimed at children. Also note that families with small children weren't clustered around the stage. This was not the focal point of the event. Anyway, leave the more adult stuff to the adults.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings: "A Russian fighter jet flew very close to a U.S. surveillance aircraft over Syria, forcing it to go through the turbulent wake and putting the lives of the four American crew members in danger, U.S. officials said Monday." What is their major malfunction?

This eases my mind: "Iran is losing influence inside Iraq. This is mainly because Iran is ruled by a religious dictatorship that condones aggressive interference in neighboring countries. Iraq has long been the main recipient of this meddling. Iran has long sought more economic and political influence in Iraq. This is made easier by Iraq’s internal problems from corruption. Historically what is now known as Iraq was seen as the most corrupt region in the Middle East, if not the world. Despite that, a growing number of formerly pro-Iran Iraqis have changed their minds."

Other than the territory taken, Russia's main success: "The Russian government persevered and was eventually successful at organizing effective resistance to internal criticism by Russian officials and civilians. This was done by relying on the growing number of Russian firms that were developing new tools to read encrypted messages and track those who were anonymously news of the Ukraine War that was critical of Russian efforts." Whether in the end if it is a "success" to let Putin believe all is well is another issue.

We actually did this: "For the first time in decades, a nuclear capable US Navy ballistic missile submarine has made a port call in South Korea, in a move that comes just days after North Korea test-fired what it said was a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile." I think it is stupid. Everyone knows we have such SSBNs. Their survival depends on not being seen. Sure, the risk was low it would be attacked while on this port visit. But still ...

Marine Corps special operations forces want to operate in smaller elements. 

Endorsed: Upgun the Coast Guard. 

Have the Russians really massed a large and well-equipped army in occupied Luhansk to launch a new offensive? That's what Ukraine claims. But that doesn't seem to be confirmed. Very odd.

Approved election denial and unfounded conspiracy theories. Let's not forget Hillary Clinton's and Democrats' post-election efforts to overturn the election she lost.

But highly prolific and partisan social media users hate the Supreme Court decision, so that's a majority for our media, right? Tip to Instapundit.

Subcontracting government bureaucracy censorship through private sector willing collaborators: "The establishment Left ... can’t survive politically without control of the web—and it dwells in a dim institutional bubble where self-interest is forever confused with the salvation of democracy." Thank God a plucky immigrant who values freedom of speech poked a hole in that wall of censorship.

The soldier might be too woke to save if he defected across the DMZ: "A U.S. national believed to have been detained by North Korea after crossing the border from the South is thought to be an American soldier, a U.S. official familiar with the situation told NBC News on Tuesday." I wish more of our morons would run away to North Korea to enjoy that socialist paradise.

Don't be silly, digging up planet-saving electric car raw materials is for poor Third World children in unsafe conditions! Via Instapundit.

"Could": "Russia's ground forces have suffered significant losses in Ukraine, but its air force and naval forces are largely intact, and the warships assigned to Russia's Northern and Baltic Fleets could still pose a challenge to NATO." Oh please. I remain puzzled: "Our Navy is worried about the resurgence of the Russian navy. Why? Is it going to bleed on us?" Granted, if the Russian fleet sails, NATO will have to make an effort to sink them. But the Russian navy will sink. Which makes me think the Russian fleet will sail only far enough to maintain their SSBN bastions.

Last week I commented on a July 10 report on Russian encouragement of tourism in Crimea: "That could bite Russia in the ass if Ukrainian special forces or partisans exploit the needless civilian traffic. Or if panicked Russian civilians knot up ground lines of communication in the event of a Ukrainian offensive or missile attacks that frighten them." And today, post attack on the Kerch Strait bridge: "Footage and imagery published on July 17 and 18 show extensive traffic jams and accidents reportedly on the E58 Mariupol-Melitopol-Kherson City highway – Russia’s current main logistics line connecting Russia to southern Ukraine – at various points between Mariupol and Berdyansk, and in Kherson Oblast."

ISW doesn't think Russia's forces in Luhansk can achieve much attacking; while Ukraine continues counteroffensive actions further west on the southern arc. 

American companies are too afraid of Iran to unload from tankers oil America seized for violating sanctions. The day CENTCOM doesn't make our enemies afraid of us is a sad day.

In an interesting article about rewriting history, this author asks "was there a time when people weren’t such colossal ideological idiots?" No. I lived through those days. But there was a day when every utterance of colossal ideological idiots wasn't instantly distributed across the land. Tip to Instapundit.

Apparently, Marine Expeditionary Unit deployments to CENTCOM are gone in favor of small deployments for short periods for specific tasks. 

The Enlisted Training Corps: "The U.S. military could soon start offering community college students a new path to enlistment, thanks to a legislative provision making its way through the Senate." It bypasses basic training. I'm not sure I like that one bit. Missing out on the stress and test of basic training is important to the soldier and the soldier's comrades who like to know everyone passed that stress test. I guess high school JROTC isn't working well enough. It's worth the effort in some form, I think. As long as we're talking recruitment, how about my idea from Army magazine? Not my usual lane, I admit. Maybe that's the form the ETC could take? I'd rather have something that prepares you for basic training. Maybe it should add bonuses to college credits that let you enlist as E-2 or E-3 instead of E-1. I went in as an E-3.

The Navy will shoot for an advanced capability it will never get rather than take a good seaplane off the shelf from an ally that could save pilots and sailors downed at sea in the vast Pacific. The author pointed out flaws in the advanced seaplane I didn't recognize. I guess I was just happy to have the capability raised to prevent Marine detachments from withering on the EABO vine.

Looking for gov in all the wrong places.

Proud of his censorship. I'm so old I remember when dissent was the highest form of patriotism. Tip to Instapundit.

The Navy has increased its goal for its battle force size. Given our shipyard problems, I don't know how smaller unmanned vessels are in a separate category. But remember, "battle force" ships count a lot of things that one normally doesn't associate with vessels that sink enemy ships. They are necessary to fight. But I'm uncomfortable with a metric that relies so much on the Definitions Section.

The Proto-Empire Strikes Back.

The Marines really believe mobility is their best protection. I believe armor is their best protection. But peacetime always cultivates the belief in mobility as protection.

Honestly, that apparent defection of an American soldier is no loss to America or to our reputation: As a tourist at the border station explained, "I don't think anyone who was sane would want to go to North Korea, so I assumed it was some kind of stunt." Everyone knows this isn't about America being bad or North Korea being good. It is about the mental condition of the man running into North Korea. I say no concessions to get him back. Hell, we should demand concessions to take him back. Enjoy paradise. There is way too much news attention on him.

Lord knows why the Army has recruiting problems.

It's funny. Russia has used landmines on a large scale. Nobody in the humanitarian community gets angry at Russia. Russia uses cluster bombs. The silence of the lambs continues. Ukraine gets cluster bombs--the lambs go into a frenzy. Despite Russia's guilt as the aggressor and Ukraine's justified defense of its territory and people. And I will note again that these so-called defenders of human rights have not flocked to Ukraine to be "human shields" to stop Russia's bombardment of civilian targets.

Turning the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the Strategic Political Reserve may have wrecked its capacity to be refilled. Ah, competence. Tip to PJ Media.

I want to agree: "For now, the Russian front lines are holding, despite the Kremlin’s dysfunctional decisions. Yet the cumulative pressure of bad choices is mounting. Russian front lines might crack in the way Hemingway once wrote about going bankrupt: 'gradually, then suddenly.'" But basically the argument is that the Russians are holding despite problems higher in the chain of command--but that might not last. That I want to believe that possibility doesn't make it probable. Fingers crossed.

Russia launched a big missile strike on Ukraine's grain export facilities in the south. Ukraine said it was the biggest strike on Odessa since the start of the invasion. Also, Prigozhin was apparently filmed in Belarus with Wagner fighters there.

I've long been worried about this: "A year before Russia invaded Ukraine, senior American military commanders admitted that the U.S. was woefully vulnerable to enemy (Chinese and Russian) electronic warfare weapons during wartime." But: "Attention has been paid, but it remains to be seen if remedies will be found and applied in time." It's something I was aware of since I was a mere lad.

The Army is reviving long-range fires with the 56th Artillery Command: "The U.S. Army recently created a novel new type of artillery that is based on U.S. Navy Mk 41 VLS (Vertical Launch System) and a fire control system using tech adapted from the Aegis air defense system." So far Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles are included.

There is a major difference between what the scientists say in the IPCC and what the activists and media that orbit about the science say about an extreme weather Apocalypse. Tip to Instapundit. Although I'm not willing to let the IPCC off the hook completely.

The Wagner disease spreads to Israel: "A contentious government plan to overhaul the country’s judiciary has cleaved deep rifts within Israeli society. Those rifts have infiltrated the military, where reservists in key units have pledged not to show up for duty if the legislative changes are pushed through." I won't claim every detail of reform is good. But the current judicial powers are horribly expansive. That kind of military political activism should be unacceptable.

I wish the Senate had been as eager to preserve its powers when Obama sent the horrible Iran nuclear deal to Congress for a pretend inverted approval process: "The Senate on Wednesday passed a provision to the annual defense bill that would make it more difficult for a U.S. president to withdraw from NATO, a precautionary measure against former President Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House."

Huh: "Iraqi security forces dispersed hundreds of demonstrators who stormed the main gates of the Swedish embassy in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, in response to police in Stockholm sanctioning another planned burning of the Muslim holy book, the Quran." I'll ask again, what doesn't anger the Easily Excitable? 

The American code breakers trapped on Corregidor could not be allowed to fall into Japanese hands. In the end they were rescued rather than murdered. And before they got out they figured out Midway was a Japanese target.

Congressional Democrats support DEI in the service academies. Keep in mind that modern Democrats have been increasingly anti-military. So it makes perfect sense.

Train hard and maintain standards for soldiers. Lest they die in defeat when faced with tough enemies.

Of course CNN is a nonpartisan news organization! They support and amplify leftists regardless of whether they are Democrats or Republicans. Tip to Instapundit.

Remember when the media lauded whistleblowers as heroes? I'm not the only one who remembers that, right? Something changed, I guess.

A new military support package for  Ukraine, including mine clearing equipment.

Whether it is crime, illegal border crossings, or even the weather, the left changes definitions to advance their goals and defend their policies. Via Instapundit.

The FBI interfered in the 2020 election to help Joe Biden. Tip to Instapundit.

Good: "National Security Spokesman John Kirby said initial feedback suggested they were being used "effectively" on Russian defensive positions and operations." Drive the invaders out.

FFS: "The EU has not changed enough in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. To be effective, the bloc needs a strategic foreign and security policy." The purpose of the EU's actions to help Ukraine should be to help Ukraine win the war with Russia. Isn't that the obvious foreign and security policy EU actions should be supporting? Clearly, if the problem is framed as the EU hasn't changed itself by getting its own foreign and security policy, helping Ukraine has nothing to do with what the EU is doing. Like I've said.

If you hear a song about resisting criminals and you automatically think it is racist, you're the racist. Only dogs hear dog whistles.

After helping generate needless fear that white nationalists run amok in our military, now we are told even small numbers have a disproportionate impact. I'd feel better if all extremists in uniform got the "eject them" treatment.  

NORTHCOM and NORAD commander on the China spy balloon incident: "We were not looking for a high-altitude balloon at that time ​​ — 65,000 feet, very slow. Our radars are capable of seeing it, but we were filtering out that data." Question: Could hackers filter out a lot more than mere balloons? That would be stealth at a much more affordable cost than our 5th generation planes, eh?

By all means pay attention to China's diplomatic foray into the Middle East. But the panic and panty flinging over this in the West is a bit much. Endorsed. And this isn't new. Basically, I think the Saudis are getting America's attention.

If the police don't start dealing with those "the end of the world is nigh" cultists, fed up people are going to escalate their resistance to the cultists until the government does their job and protects normals from the nuts.

Syria is well and truly effed.

Putin has a lot to be paranoid about post-Wagner. Removing Putin may be the best survival strategy for people who've done nothing to attract Putin's paranoia. Whether that leads Russia to take the opportunity to end the war or to escalate the war is a big question. Of course, the availability of that choice relies on the ground forces remaining willing to fight in Ukraine.

What I really respect about the modern leftist Democrats is how much they work to support our traditions and institutions: "Harvard law Prof. Mark Tushnet and political scientist Aaron Belkin urge President Biden to disobey 'gravely mistaken' Supreme Court rulings." That so-called Populist Constitutionalism would actually resist rather popular court rulings. The writers are actually advocating Twitter Constitutionalism to empower the loudest minority of friendly activists. Tip to Instapundit.

How the Russians got the FBI to carry out censorship of Americans to promote Russian interests. Via Instapundit. Is it collusion if the FBI was too stupid to recognize it was being played by Russia? And too ignorant to recognize that censoring Americans from any source does not have the objective of defending America and our democracy? This is an outrage. 

FFS: " A simple typo caused millions of emails intended for Pentagon employees to be inadvertently sent to email accounts in Mali, according to a Dutch technologist who discovered the problem." No worries. Say, guess who's big in Mali right now? The Wagner Group. So there were tons of emails in Mali that differed from military email address only in their suffix of "ml" rather than "mil"? I don't understand why the emails weren't simply undeliverable.

The only way SOUTHCOM will get significant assets is by getting these B Team AI-enhanced drones: "Following successful unmanned and artificial intelligence systems’ operations in the Middle East through Task Force 59, the Navy announced in April that a similar construct would come to naval forces in Central and South America — the area of responsibility for U.S. Southern Command." 

Internal Russian drama revolving around "ultranationalist" Igor Girkin.

Drones. 

Russia, Iran, and Syria: "Iran, Russian proxies, and the Syrian regime have deployed forces along the line of control between Syrian regime forces and the US-backed SDF, likely as part of a coercive campaign to expel the United States from Syria."

More efficient--until criminal or government hackers take it down: "Hackers that specialize in ransomware have found that many major cargo container ports have computerized their record keeping." We are aware of the problem, at least. 

An advocate for buying foreign non-nuclear powered subs or building their designs here. I have mixed views, although I lean toward it on capabilities factors. The problem has long been short range which requires them to be based forward. Remember, a lot of our allies just have to leave port to be in their patrol area. Or we'd have to build such large conventionally powered subs that it might not be worth the cost. I worry now that we haven't built them for so long that it would be cheaper to keep building nukes. [Entry corrected to indicate buying foreign designs.]

Yes: "It is worth remembering that Ukraine was not thriving before February 2022. After his 2019 election, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took over a state suffering from economic malaise, low birth rates and high rates of corruption." I've long said Ukraine will be vulnerable as long as it is a smaller version of corrupt Russia. And yeah, war damage and the likelihood that refugees won't return after the war add to the gloom. But first Russia has to be defeated.

Sure, I too hope the Afghanistan War Commission does a good job and teaches us lessons. But I fear this is just to get the issue far enough into the future to protect those who so clearly screwed the pooch, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We don't need a commission report in five years to know we should be outraged that senior political and military leaders didn't resign in shame.

Hmmm: "Xi has been transforming China from a normal modern country back into a Bronze Age theocracy."

Is this a problem? "Since August 2022, China has suspended a series of talks with the United States among major military commanders and defense policy coordinators." China intends this to put pressure on America to grant concessions to reopen lines of communication. I doubt military-to-military contacts do us any good.