The Threat From Europe

An author asks does America still need to worry so much about Europe. He's not quite asking the right question.

This seems reasonable in many ways:

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, however, removed the overriding geopolitical impulse for close American engagement with Europe. The “heartland” that so worried Mackinder and his intellectual successor, Nicholas Spykman, is now divided among a group of great and middle powers. 

As the American effort to promote integration and cohesion in Europe is now largely complete—with a Europe that is capable of holding the line if that’s what it wants to do. Europe united under the banner of NATO now serves the role Great Britain did in the nineteenth century—ensuring that no security threat can break through that littoral barrier on Eurasia’s western peninsula to threaten the eastern shore of the United States.

Post-Soviet Russia remains one of the world’s major players but, unlike the USSR in 1945, it is “hemmed in” all around its borders. 

Yes, America doesn't want a hostile power to control the tremendous military potential of Europe. American interventions in World War I, World War II, and the Cold War can be viewed through that lens.

And Russia today is too weak and too far east to be the hostile power that can control Europe. Russia is a threat to the countries near Russia. 

And yes, Asia--with China and its little pet psycho North Korea--is now the primary source of military threats to America. So American military power rightly flows to Asia away from Europe.

But that doesn't mean Europe isn't a threat to America. In my view the threat of a hostile power gaining control of the tremendous military potential of Europe lies in the proto-imperial European Union rather than hostile powers like the Kaiser's Germany, Hitler's Germany, or Soviet Russia that America helped defeat.

So this take is just dumbfounding:

ROMANTIC GESTURES are difficult in a pandemic. But America and the European Union are trying to rekindle their old passion.

There is no romance. The EU just wants to break up America and NATO before ghosting both of us. The EU doesn't like America because America made Europe democratic after World War II. And the proto-imperial EU wants to erase the prefix.

The European Union wants America out of NATO. Without American influence Europe will be less democratic and more autocratic. And then Europe will be a source of problems from internal forces and not any single military power trying to conquer Europe.

America must not encourage the growth of the EU. And America should do what it can to oppose the EU as it tries to transition from free trade area to empire.

Going For the Kill?

The Israelis seem to be changing their military strategy from one of bombardment to one focused on victory. What does that mean for Hezbollah?

Well that's interesting:

A revolution in military doctrine, which is now focused once again on winning—not by immobilizing the enemy’s war-fighting capacity as in the past, but by systematic, precise, and complete (or almost complete) destruction of its resources and terrorists.

I've long thought I've seen the Israelis reinvigorating their ground forces after the failure in 2006 of bombardment as the primary strategy to defeat Hezbollah.

Does this mean Israel is prepared to really hammer Hezbollah around a primary ground effort to tear up the terrorist organization that Iran props up?

I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.

Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.

I see it as a large-scale ground raid rather than a conquest. It might take several months of temporary occupation to really dig out the infrastructure, eliminate the rocket-launching facilities, hunt scattered enemy leadership, and cart off intelligence. But the Israelis would retire to the border when it is over.

Still, despite my longstanding view, I now wonder how wide the front would be.

Frenemies

I don't worry a lot about a Russian-Chinese alliance. Neither can help the other militarily. And in my view only Russia really needs a Russia-China non-aggression pact.

I think this assessment about an alliance between Russia and China is right:

A military alliance is similarly problematic. Neither Russia nor China can support the other’s strategic needs. The primary threat to China is naval. Russia’s naval capacity is limited, and its major Asian port, Vladivostok, requires passage through maritime routes that are controlled by Japan and the United States. Russia would be contained by the same coalition threatening China. The threats to Russia are primarily terrestrial. China’s ability to send forces to areas of Russian concern is limited, and Russia has no pressing need for additional ground troops. There are areas in which one could help the other, such as military hardware or cyberwarfare, but that isn’t a real alliance.

Could a Russo-Chinese alliance launch a naval assault in the east and a ground attack in the west simultaneously? Perhaps. But doing so, while politically shocking, would not weaken either front because it would be engaging naval forces not needed in the west and ground forces not needed in the east. It may also fail. If it succeeded, it would trigger existential (nuclear) choices or create unshakeable anti-Russia and anti-China alliances.

I think Russia needs China pointed out to sea at America and our allies in East Asia. 

In order to protect Russia's 19th century conquests from Chinese land claims.

And while Russia bought five more years of non-aggression, is that enough time from Moscow's perspective to pivot to Asia?

Or is Russia slowly getting used to vassal status?

Don't Rush To Defeat

I'm all for an Army role in the INDOPACOM region. But I don't want the Army--or the rest of our military--to rush in to early defeat.

 The Army's Pacific strategy has these highlights:

Now and in the future, first battles are decisive to the outcome of campaigns. Winning the first battle or preventing a fait accompli in crisis will be necessary to prevent prolonged conflict and escalation. Ground forces will decisively shape the first battle by leveraging positional and capability advantage to rapidly deliver options for crisis response, and to win in conflict.

And:

Fighting state actors from a cold start by projecting power from the homeland over many months is no longer a viable course of action. There is no alternative to the dynamic presence of formations in contested theaters.

And:

Army forces in distributed forward positions, will attack by strikes and raids across intra-theater lines of operation to create operational mobility corridors.

So the Army is to deploy decisive forces forward early inside the enemy's strike envelope to win the first battle?

I worry that this could be the 1940 Dyle Plan that rushes to early defeat. 

I'd much rather focus on surviving rather than winning the opening Chinese strike in order to have a core force to reinforce and counter-attack.

By all means inflict as much attrition on the attackers in the early stages of a war. But don't sacrifice our best personnel and equipment in a vain attempt to stem a Chinese attack started at a point of their choosing and at a time of their choosing.

On the other hand, the Army clearly intends very small forces involved in this mission to support the Navy in gaining control of the seas. The small units envisioned are not the same size force as the armies sent in to Belgium in 1940.The risk of losing the Army units may well be more than balanced by the attrition they can inflict on the Chinese if the Chinese strike first in the western Pacific.

And while I'm worried about shoving too many forces--from all the services--too far forward too early, I appreciate the emphasis on looking at what we can do to an enemy rather than being paralyzed by worrying about what an enemy can do to us. This strategy could be worth it whether or not the forces committed survive.

So we'll see, I guess. I'm not sure at this early stage what the operation would look like and what is being risked.

UPDATE: These Chinese capabilities--if the simulations are accurate--are why I'm wary of forward-deployed forces:

In tabletop exercises with America as the "blue team" facing off against a "red team" resembling China, Taiwan's air force is wiped out within minutes, U.S. air bases across the Pacific come under attack, and American warships and aircraft are held at bay by the long reach of China's vast missile arsenal, he said.

Don't rush to defeat. And don't deploy to defeat. America isn't about to initiate a war against China. So America has to absorb the first blow. As we prioritize are best forces to INDOPACOM, don't put our best forces in range of early destruction.

Russia is Running Out of Time

China is looking west:

There has long been a fallacy at the heart of much analysis of Chinese security policy in Central Asia that China is focused on economics in the region, and Russia on security. This is built on the odd assumption that Beijing is willing to simply delegate its security concerns to others: something that clashes with the increasingly strong China that President Xi Jinping has been projecting. In fact, China has long had a security footprint in Central Asia. What is new, however, is Beijing’s increased willingness to demonstratively flex its muscle in the region.

I love it when a plan comes together:

China is splitting its resources between efforts to secure sea imports and land imports for their energy needs. They will end up having insufficient resources to protect both sources.

As background, I'm upset that Russia has successfully pointed China south at America by selling arms useful for a naval war over Taiwan. China also sees this naval power as a way to secure their oil imports by sea.

I argued that we need to point China inland to avoid a fight with China over Taiwan rather than prepare to beat China over Taiwan. In part, I wanted China to import energy via overland pipelines to get China looking to the interior of Asia instead of the sea.

In that post I noted that China was building a mechanized corps in their west. 

Russia really needs to take advantage of the next five years to address military imbalances in favor of China.

Working the Taiwan Problem

Do we need to risk "provoking" a Chinese invasion of Taiwan now in order to deter a more capable invasion later?  It is worth considering and pondering how to do it without triggering a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

So I'm reading a Forbes article about a U.S. Army role to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This should be interesting, I thought. And then I get to this part: 

As Brian J. Dunn observed in a seminal assessment for Military Review last year, "To defeat Taiwan and avoid war with America, all China needs to do is get ashore in force and impose a cease-fire prior to significant American intervention." 

Huh. That was unexpected. The link in that quote is to my Military Review article on Taiwan. The issue itself is mostly focused on Taiwan, including the subject of returning American forces to Taiwan. I recommend it if you are interested in the subject.

The key is that we need to figure out how to prevent Chinese forces from remaining on Taiwan. Too often the issue has been framed as an all-or-nothing framework. If American and allied forces make it to Taiwan before the capital falls then somehow China loses the war. I don't assume China just evacuates their army if Taiwan holds on long enough for American to intervene and land on the island in force. 

Even if the Chinese don't want to risk a wider war by engaging American troops, China is on the island, after all. I propose American heavy forces as the ultimate guarantee that the PLA is driven into the sea so China doesn't prepare for a decisive round two in the future from within a secure bridgehead on Taiwan.

Thompson proposes a Army heavy brigade as a tripwire on Taiwan to account for the time it would take to move Army heavy forces to Taiwan. The purpose would be to deter China with the threat of immediate combat with American forces. He could be right. 

Although to be fair in regard to his criticism of moving many heavy forces to Taiwan, I did not mean to imply that an Army heavy corps sent to Taiwan would be all heavy brigades. 

That said, I recognized the deployment time issue. I noted the option of afloat prepositioning of Army brigade sets to speed deployment. And I urged Taiwan use heavy forces to counterattack bridgeheads early, confident that American heavy reinforcements are on the way in case the Taiwanese fail to drive the PLA into the sea. 

I'm certainly not against stationing a heavy brigade on Taiwan. But we may need to slowly build up to that to avoid giving China a pretext to invade. Introducing American forces to Taiwan is a normal thing for two countries to do. But China, of course, claims Taiwan. And in theory China might consider that a trigger for invasion.

Perhaps a company-sized Army heavy team goes in for exercises. Then it stays. Then it is reinforced to a battalion-sized task force. Then prepositioned equipment for the rest of a brigade is sent. Along with air defense forces to protect it. Eventually the fully manned brigade could be established. Done over time, any single increment might be too low for China to justify war.

And for God's sake make sure the Navy and Air Force can establish and hold open the line of supply to Taiwan. 

My thanks to Thompson for the shout out on the need to make sure the PLA does not remain on Taiwan when the shooting stops. And amplification of the concept that an Army role in INDOPACOM shouldn't be just killing enemy ships. Which I wrote about more generally in Military Review.

Weekend Data Dump

Is Erdogan angling for a Turkish-Iranian confrontation? That would be an indirect way of repairing ties to Israel and Arabs that he has damaged. If it is too hard to become their friend, becoming (again) the enemy of their enemy might be good enough. How and where would the confrontation play out?

Excuse me, but who is waging war against Asian Americans?

China learns to deal with stressed sailors. The path is toward what American (and I assume other Western) navies have long coped with sailor morale.

China: all your student are belong to us! Tip to Instapundit.

The Army really wants new light armor and armed robots. But you already know my view on the Future Burned-Out Hulk light tank. Sure, the Army says the MPF light tank is only intended to fight enemies without anti-tank capabilities. But I wonder why our enemies would be that cooperative? And the armed robots are for now "teleoperated" by remote crews. I explored a version of that concept in this Infantry article.

Hypersonic missile modules for Zumwalt. That would work on modularized auxiliary cruisers, no? And I mentioned an option for a Kiev-like aviation cruiser vessel with air surveillance that can target for the ship's missiles. Zumwalt will be able to do that, too, controlling air and surface drones.

Trump supporters don't mistrust highly educated people because Trump supporters are ignorant. Trump supporters mistrust highly educated people because the highly educated experts who are visible are credentialed idiots who can't be trusted. Watch the cause-and-effect direction when you notice the connection.

I agree that small islands are sometimes very important. And yes, the Japanese need to stand on their tiny ground. But just where is that "Biden grand strategy" the article speaks of? To be fair, that was the editor's title which doesn't make it into the article.

I noticed something that Peacock does that is pretty smart. There is a show on broadcast TV I have watched. But I missed an episode a couple weeks ago and then I did it again. The second time was probably influenced by not wanting to keep watching new episodes while having a gap. Peacock has the series, too. But it delays the new episodes. So now I am locked into watching it on Peacock. Being delayed doesn't bother me. This is not a complaint about Peacock, mind you. I like Peacock's free version. I'm old enough to be used to commercial interruptions.

It's a sad and dangerous day when our government puts political officers into our military. Men and women who volunteer to serve in the military accept fewer rights in order to protect the rights and freedoms of other Americans. But this is an outrageous highly selective application of that reality. Or do you really think that anybody within the Department of Defense will be disciplined for BLM, Antifa, or any other Marxist or "Marxist-adjacent" activities?

Peace is their profession?

Look, the Biden administration said there aren't kids in cages, so just shut up about it. And they will not circle back to that issue. Ever. Because they care so, so much, of course. Actually, I suspect the crisis will be used by illegal immigration advocates to end all border controls rather than restore control of the border.

Biden called an early lid for the day at the beginning of the week. How long before one of these "lids" is for the week? The month? Or even the year? Tip to Instapundit.

The Woke Left. Useful idiots? Or just on the other side. If I recall the rules the Left wrote, if a horrible political entity agrees with you, you are no different than the horrible political entity. Tip to Instapundit.

Why are we giving grief to India over buying Russian weapons? "U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday encouraged India to rethink its planned purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system to avoid U.S. sanctions, according to Reuters." India is not a NATO nation like Turkey, whose participation in NATO's integrated air defense system could compromise the system if a Russian weapon is plugged in. India is not any of that. Let India buy new weapons that can cope with China. And as a side benefit keep Russia from being dependent on China. Don't we want a Russia that eventually feels free to break free from appeasing China? Give India and exemption to anti-Russia sanctions and be happy that Russia has an opening to an anti-Chinese power that might drag Russia along one day.

The Saudis offered a ceasefire to the Houthi. America cheered. The Houthi said the Saudis should shove it. Well of course that was the Houthi reaction. The opening position was a ceasefire. The Houthi want victory and so turned down the ceasefire to wait for an offer closer to Houthi victory. Our opening position should have been that we'll kill every Houthi fighter, destroy every structure, and salt the earth to destroy them. Then maybe the Houthi would have accepted a ceasefire to forestall the worst.

Credentialed idiots govern us. Tip to Instapundit. 

The Chinese and Russians sure like their bad boy friends.

Lovely little business you have there. It would be a shame if anything bad happened to it. Lose-lose for the for-now successful business people there.

The Critical Drinker. His YouTube entertainment reviews are gems.

The Navy really needs to update and fix the public shipyards that can't keep up with the current Navy's maintenance requirements let alone the needs of a larger fleet. 

Naval power is more than hulls and tonnage. Is China building the less quantifiable enablers of real naval power? And of course, as I've frequently noted, the author points out that America has powerful naval allies while China does not. But those allies are not a given, I've warned. The author notes that, too.

What does China's latest 5-year plan mean for Russia? It means that Russia had best make good use of those five years.

The American military has no business inserting itself in politics. Unlike people who didn't like a drone "kill list" with an American's name on it, I had no problem with that. If the American wanted justice the American could surrender and go to court. But fight with our enemies and you deserve a JDAM with your name on it, I say. If the military wants to lose Congressional support and recruits, it should keep openly siding with the left side of the aisle. Those retired senior officers weighing in against Trump were canaries in the coal mine, I guess. Without conservatives backing it, the military will be defunded and social workers will be sent to deal with jihadi terrorists.

The Bill Clinton strategy is back, baby! Republicans should be taking notes. Governor Blackface (or was he Governor Klan Robe?) and his lieutenant governor set the modern standard for riding out the storm. Cuomo is only following it. Still, you'd think all those needless nursing home deaths would prompt the New York state legislature to act. But for the non-lethal accusations, Mr. Franken is kicking himself for resigning his Senate seat, no doubt. I mean, hey, some "problematic" behavior isn't a bar to the highest office in the land. Cuomo keeps hope alive!

The international community continues to try to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. Because reasons, I suppose. I say break it up for parts and start over.

To be clear, I have no problem with women in the military. They are an important part of the force. And there is nothing wrong with aiding pregnant female soldiers. The issue is the high-level emphasis on that aspect of the military when the military needs improvements in capabilities to combat China's rising power in East Asia. That was the point of Tucker Carlton's comments, I think. And do you really believe there is no reason to worry about the capabilities issue? Messaging priorities, people. Have them.

This kind of short-range missile firing shouldn't even make the news. North Korea sure knows how to attract attention. It's like a missile selfie. Who cares?

Interesting times: "The United States said Tuesday it’s backing the Philippines in a new standoff with Beijing in the disputed South China Sea, where Manila has asked a Chinese fishing flotilla to leave a reef. China ignored the call, insisting it owns the offshore territory." About 200 Chinese naval militia vessels are parked at Whitsun Reef to carry out the process of absorbing the territory and the waters around it. More on China's subliminal conquest going on there.

So Russia wants to pretend it is a superpower? That's so cute: "China and Russia on Tuesday lashed out at the 'destructive' behaviour of the United States and called for a UN Security Council summit to establish stability between global superpowers." China is just tolerating and using Russia. For five more years, anyway.

Blue Feudalism. But they care! I've stopped caring that the left decided our cities were acceptable collateral damage to win the federal government. The city voters chose the form of their destruction. We'll see if they choose different people to restore them.

CNN's prime time ratings have plunged 45% in five weeks. Like I said, the parasite can't live without its host. Tip to Instapundit.

Two American warships entered the Black Sea to remind Russia that it isn't actually a Russian lake.

The idea that Taiwan is doomed because China is huge and close is refuted by the fact that many large and powerful countries have small and weak neighbors. Work the problem. And no matter what, don't give up the ship. Fight her till she sinks. Remember, Finland endured a massive assault without a 100-mile anti-tank ditch. Finland survived until the unthinkable happened and the Soviet threat evaporated nearly overnight.

Yes. You may recall that I noted that both Trump's decision to pull troops out of Somalia and Biden's decision to require White House approval strikes there would harm our ability to kill jihadis. If The AFRICOM Queen was sailing off the coast, as I wrote about in Military Review, we'd be in a much stronger position.

Oops: "The Suez Canal in Egypt was blocked on Tuesday after a massive container ship ran aground." In imagining a China invasion of Taiwan a long time ago, I wrote: "The Chinese should arrange an accident in the Panama Canal that blocks the waterway quite solidly for a good two weeks. Perhaps a volatile cargo will make it too risky to move fast until all the facts are in about the cargo and what it will take to secure it before refloating the ship and getting it out of the locks. Our carriers may not be able to use the canal but smaller warships and supply vessels use it, not to mention pure civilian traffic that relies on the canal. The disruption will hinder our movement and provide a warning jolt to our economy." Just saying. And while the ship blocks the Suez Canal, we're cut off from the short route to CENTCOM. That's not good.

Racial identity rules make my head spin. I can almost understand why the woke simply change their views to match whatever hashtag is trending that day.

I've been fairly agnostic on the origins of the COVID-19 virus. Way outside my lanes. But given China's secrecy on the origins of the Xi Jinping Flu virus and China's propaganda that America is the source of the virus, I'm going to go out on a limb and say escape from a Chinese laboratory is the way to bet on the origin of the virus. And if it is true that the virus was engineered to be especially infectious, what are the Chinese up to? If China's rise falters before 2049, is this a Plan B to pull down the rest of the world to engineer China's position on the top regardless of China's trajectory? It seems far-fetched. It feels almost wrong to suggest. And I won't say I think this pandemic virus was deliberately released by China. But the last year has been so improbably that I'm not sure if normal measures of plausibility apply. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

The White House gender transitioning process begins.

I would pay good money is women show up to the event in blue dresses.

China wants to wage a civilizational war based on race. China has appointed itself the rulers of the Asians. America needs to respond with an asymmetrical civilizational war against the Chinese Communist Party based on freedom. This would be a nice start. A voluntary alliance of the free will have more appeal and staying power than a sham alliance that masks CCP rule over Asian vassal states and harsh rule over the Chinese themselves.

Perhaps Thomas "China for a day" Friedman really is over his China crush and doesn't like them much any more. I guess aggression and genocide can get tough to defend after a while. But his new status as the man who would warn us to get serous about China still seems to be plagued with a crush on the autocrat "solution" in America to China. And his solutions are basically "implementing policies that result in good things while avoiding policies that result in bad things." It's Gold, I tell you! Can't miss! As I've long said of Friedman, I'm not saying you can't drown in a pool of his wisdom. But you would have to be drunk and face down to do so.

France is unwilling to alone risk a confrontation with fellow NATO member Turkey by enforcing the embargo on weapons shipments to Libya.

Big if true: "The United States and countries around Europe are closing ranks to respond to 'aggressive and coercive' behavior by China, days after the U.S. and its allies launched coordinated sanctions against Chinese officials accused of rights abuses in the far-western Xinjiang region." The article is short on details, mentioning few countries: "On Monday, the U.S., EU, Britain and Canada imposed asset freezes and travel bans on a group of officials in Xinjiang." But European countries seem rather eager to conclude trade deals with China. Do those sanctions on individuals really make up for enriching the Chinese Communist Party with trade deals? For example, from the very same article: "The [EU and China] sealed a major investment agreement in December giving European businesses about the same level of market access in China as those from the United States." Huh. I bet China will trade some minor sanctions on fully replaceable bureaucrats for major trade deals, eh? My, the media is going to be very generous with this president, isn't it?

May Erdogan enjoy his second-rate air defense equipment and third-rate frenemy. Remember, we have an Erdogan crisis and not an S-400 crisis.

Britain: "British foreign minister Dominic Raab will throw his support behind NATO as 'a strong, united, political bulwark against Moscow's de-stabilising activities', rallying allies to thwart what he said was the threat posed by Russia." Brexit had no effect on European defenses given that NATO--which Britain is a member of--and not the European Union is Europe's primary means of defense.

Mass shootings and perpetrator race. Well that's different than what the media says. Tip to Instapundit.

One of the problems with being out of power is that your side has a tendency to go a little bit nuts. The Democrats went a lot of bit nuts under Trump. It was turn the dial to 11, 24/7 Crazyland. But conservatives do it too. Take the VP Harris not-saluting kerfuffle. Harris is not required to salute troops because she is not in the military chain of command. So not an outrage. And honestly, if she had saluted, I can totally see some on the right complaining that she really wants to be commander-in-chief! How dare she! I'm not outraged.

Coalition air power and Iraqi troops continue to fight ISIL. Good. We let them up off the map between the end of 2011 and mid-2014. Don't do that again. I question this, however: "The U.S. estimates that between 8,000 and 16,000 ISIS fighters remain in both Iraq and Syria, according to a February Defense Department Inspector General report." I suspect that this number included family members and part-time supporters. If more than 10% of those "fighters" are full timers I'd be shocked. Because the mayhem in Iraq and Syria isn't enough to represent 8-16K full-time fighters.

China's population is going to implode: "Today, the country has a population more than four times larger than America’s. By 2100, the U.S. will probably have more people than China." I do believe I mentioned that possibility nearly 10 years ago. Has China's total fertility rate dropped so much that it is now likely?

Oh? "Beijing will have the ability to invade Taiwan sooner than current predictions would suggest, US President Joe Biden’s nominee to lead America’s Indo-Pacific Command said on Tuesday." I think China has long had the ability to invade Taiwan if China's leaders are willing to endure the casualties, take the hit in international relations, and risk war with America.

Well of course NATO is important to contain Russia. But only if the members of NATO spend enough on defense and only if the NATO states are willing to confront Russia. I get the strong impression that the Europeans welcome "improved" trans-Atlantic relations that end American pressure to spend more on defense and actually do things to contain Russia. Will America now be cool with that?

If we are going to comfort ourselves that our trained and experienced crews make up for Chinese numbers of shiny new warships, we'd better be damned sure our crews are trained, experienced--and rested while on duty.

The president's first press conference was just sad for Biden and shameful for the media that went along with the charade. It was Weekend at Bernie's Biden's territory. But it is more than "just" that. Biden is not in charge. Somebody is. And by using Biden as the pretend decider, the American people are denied the ability to hold someone accountable for the actions of the federal government. Biden can hardly be held responsible. That is obvious. But who do we hold responsible? Who is making decisions?

China is building large amphibious warfare ships. While these ships would of course be useful in a Taiwan invasion to lift Marines to the island, I think their primary purpose is power projection far beyond Taiwan. If China wants to engage in disaster relief, the ships would also be useful.

The media is handling the transition of fact checking from Trump to Biden in stride: "Biden skews figures on border, taxes, more[.]" Trump "lied" of course. Biden "skews figures." 

No! Way! I guess the people aren't supposed to know some things that are inconvenient to know. Tip to Instapundit.

As the Biden administration contents itself with speaking loudly but carrying a small stick in regard to China, the states may have to wield their own sticks. Why we tolerate Confucius Institute propaganda and espionage hubs is beyond me.

Yemen is another state that has fragmented beyond repair. Only the UN state-based system is maintaining the fiction of a single country.

The North Koreans upped their missile test sabre rattling with more substantial weapons.

WTF? Making sure elections are decided by legally cast votes is "Un-American," "sick," and "despicable?"  One, this is insane and dangerous. Two, The Democrats' own proposal to federalize election law to undermine voting integrity is the real threat to honest voting. And three, I'm so old that I remember when Democrats expressed outrage at questioning somebody's Patriotism.

Money for nothing, get your nukes for free.

China is building more land on Subi Reef in the South China Sea. 

America's special forces are shifting emphasis from counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism to great power competition scenarios. So they want better intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets. I assume their ISR assets to search and call down firepower aren't able to operate in a high-threat environment.

China is doing its underseas homework to operate west of the Malacca and Sunda Straits.

Pelosi has no more authority to deny a duly elected representative their House seat than Pence had the power to deny a duly selected elector from casting their Electoral College ballot for president.

Democracy dies in Speaker Pelosi's office.

I'm honestly not freaked out that Biden had a guide to the reporters with their photographs. 

Are depleted uranium salts dangerous? "A German company has found dangerous nuclear material stored in an oil facility in southern Lebanon, officials said Friday." I have to believe that if Hezbollah knew that was around that Hezbollah would have packed it in some of their rockets aimed at Israel. It would cause terror from setting off radiation detectors, if nothing else.

Taiwan says it is "mass producing" long-range missiles. I assume this is in line with past efforts to be able to strike Chinese ports and airfields should China try to invade Taiwan.

The Philippines plans to conduct more patrols to guard against Chinese encroachment on Filipino territory.

Iran is continuing the undeclared naval war with Israel by attacking an Israeli-owned cargo ship with a missile. Iran denies it is involved. This echoes the Iran-Iraq War "tanker war" and related American-led defensive military efforts to counter Iran's attacks on non-combatant shipping.

Did 20 Chinese warplanes really violate Taiwan's air space in one incident? Or was this a Chinese penetration of Taiwan's air defense identification zone?

Yemen's Houthis and their Iranian backers seem to have little interest in going along with the Biden administration's hope to rein in Saudi Arabia and encourage peace in Yemen.

This seems significant: "A unit of six North Korean border soldiers has defected to China, according to reports, in a sign of the increasingly high level of discontent in the reclusive country." So an entire squad defected? And the secret police sent to the border to watch the border guards let this slide or didn't detect the plot? A whole lot of officials have a whole lot of explaining to do. Also, China accepted their defection? That's a big deal, too. Although I think it is more accurate to say the unit escaped into China rather than defected to China. Good luck to them. They'll need it.

I commend the Biden administration for sticking with a U.S.-Taiwan coast guard agreement despite China's anger.

The Chinese are having problems with building carriers. Technology, aircraft, crews, and support vessels are all speed bumps. I'm not sure if this is reason to celebrate or not.

Saying the filibuster is a tool of racism because racist legislators once used it to stall civil rights is nonsense. It's like saying hammers are racist tools because racists once used them to build slave quarters. Do we ban hammers? For God's sake people, try not to be destructive morons when formulating arguments.

China is getting old before it gets rich. Does this mean that its leaders will invade Taiwan soon? Is this the right response to the demographic problem? Do China's rulers think that owning Taiwan is so important that it is worth the risk of adding new problems to their demographic slide? Will the Chinese with few children think perhaps tens of thousands of dead troops is worth paying for Taiwan?

Hahaha!

If the Russians want to risk their own air crew with their practices, that's their business. I worry the accident-prone yet overly-aggressive Russians will collide with one of our planes.

Iran doesn't seem eager for a reset with America: "Iran and China on Saturday signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement addressing economic issues amid crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran, state TV reported." And so much for Iran wanting to be the leader of the Islamic world in place of Saudi Arabia. I guess as far as the mullahs are concerned the Uighurs can just rot in Hell. Well, to be fair, just for 25 years.

Morons seem to be ascendant in formulating arguments these days. This is going to be a long year.

Only $32K? That seems like a totally inadequate honor for Thunberg. How dare they insult Greta with such a puny statue?! I smell an arms race among universities and foundations as boards of control worry about a Saint Greta statue gap. How soon before Harvard proposes a $100K statue?

I'm a "work the problem" sort of person in the face of setbacks. So my brain tells me that the Democrats can be stopped or diluted by using available levers of power and preparing to make the case for conservative policies in the next election. But emotionally the success of the Democrats in gaining control of the federal government--even if barely--makes me worry that their apparent willingness to destroy norms and institutions--and possibly democracy itself--for the sake of power is a threat the country hasn't seen before. I suspect my brain has the better narrative. But I'm not sure. And this reinforces my belief that trying to control the huge federal state is a mistake. The emphasis should be on shrinking the scope of the federal state so it isn't such a high stakes contest to control it. We'd be far less polarized if that could be achieved.

Trump took the threat of cyber-attacks on our election seriously: "In the run up to the 2020 presidential election, U.S. Cyber Command conducted over two dozen missions to block foreign adversaries’ efforts to undermine voting integrity, the commander told senators Thursday." Contrast this to Obama who in 2016 famously told Putin to "cut it out."

This is sadly humorous: "The United States and other Western countries are waging a psychological war on Russia to try to undermine President Vladimir Putin and state institutions, an adviser to Russia’s defence minister said." As if. Until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014, the US and the West barely even thought about Russia let alone plotted against the Russians. And even today we have bigger problems than Russia to worry about. I swear, Russia resents being ignored more than anything else. The Russians simply miss being the "Big Bad." And they'll ef around to get the West to pay attention to them.

Yes: "The Trump administration’s movement of most U.S. troops out of Somalia to other countries in Africa 'probably' had 'significant downsides,' a Pentagon official said Thursday." I agree. I said that repeatedly. And the Biden administration decision to run all Somalia strike missions through the White House added to the downsides. Definitely.

I'm not on board much of this author's analysis, but he is spot on that military power is not synonymous with influence. I've argued that reducing our military power in the Middle East in recent years is not the same as reducing our influence.

Children aren't vulnerable to dying from the Xi Jinping Flu. But they sure are vulnerable to suicide from the extended lockdowns imposed on them. This policy has long outlived its usefulness. It is madness. Will there be any accountability for this epidemic? Tip to Instapundit.

Sniper shots. 

The jihadi situation really is getting out of hand in Mozambique. The ability to attack a city for five days without drawing down significant government force is horrifying. I wonder if the British might step into this to assist local forces with their new global military posture? America is already committed to training there, as I noted last week.

Pay no attention to the woman behind the curtain!

Well, Myanmar (Burma) security forces certainly are willing to kill those opposed to the military coup there.

In addition to chemical and biological weapons, North Korea wants nuclear weapons. But is this true? "As of January 2020, North Korea had 30 to 40 nuclear warheads and could produce enough fissile material for six or seven bombs a year, according to an estimate by the Arms Control Association." Does North Korea have up to 40 actual warheads mounted on missiles? Does North Korea even have warheads waiting for working missiles, as opposed to devices that can be exploded on the ground with thousands of scientists and technicians setting it off? Or is the warhead count simply a theoretical count based on estimates of how much nuclear material North Korea has processed into bomb-form by now?

A root cause of America's pandemic death toll (we have the 13th highest per capita) that must not be named. Although somehow the Bad Orange Man is probably responsible for that, too. Tip to Instapundit.

RIP Baltimore. Cabals of insane people are running many of our cities. When do people who must endure their policy madness say enough is enough?

Question: A disturbing number of analysts say we're supposed to understand Russia's aggressiveness and paranoia because the Russians fear invasion from the west. So why don't we support the Poles in occupying Moscow and Berlin? You know, if history justifies aggression ...

Another "known wolf." Because better dead than rude. Still, it's not like the FBI hasn't been busy. Tip to Instapundit.

I often tell myself that I don't feel old, even though I know I am basically old. Maybe there's something to that. Tip to Instapundit.

Large numbers of American-backed Kurdish forces raided a large jihadi-controlled "camp" in Syria to arrest a number of jihadis.

Somebody got a good hit with the clue bat: "Technology, rather than freeing the Chinese people, is ensnaring them in an Orwellian web of controls, where every word and movement is monitored by the state for any inkling of dissent. Xi’s government has locked up untold numbers of Uighurs in the western region of Xinjiang in what is the 21^st-century equivalent of Siberian gulags — and thinks nothing of it. China also broke a treaty with the United Kingdom to get its hands on democracy activists in Hong Kong, many of whom are already behind bars." And China wants to normalize this brutal rule. I can't help but think that the Chinese are encouraging the propaganda that anti-Asian hate crime [NOTE: with the false implication that any increases are due to white people] is surging here is part of that normalization effort. It is a more clever version of their "hug a Chinese person" BS when the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic started a year ago. Or our own woke awful people could be doing it on their own, I suppose. Tip to Instapundit.

And Now For Something Completely Different

I seem to be interested in this genre after a couple weeks. So let's go!

 

Okay, I know I'm about to take a stroll through the cancel culture minefield. But blue collar people of all races are being marginalized with pandemic lockdowns and hateful accusations even as there is bizarre zeal to celebrate a Marxist organization that is ruining lives. I of course believe Black lives matter. Our Constitutions, laws, and human decency demand that. But BLM is a left-wing hate group. And I won't genuflect before it. Anyway:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just may keep doing this. Don't say you weren't warned.

UPDATE: Okay, one more:

 Sorry ...

Love Story?

Iran under the mullah ruling class haters is not and will not be America's friend.

Well, this error-filled propaganda piece arguing for Iran-America match-making as the path to regional peace is just plain stupid. 

America tried to "pursue peace" with Iran under Obama with the awful Iran nuclear deal and pallets of cash. Iran called the deal a victory. 

Pray tell, was it a victory over regional unrest? A victory over hate? Or a victory over America? 

That answer became obvious immediately. Iran responded by pushing regional aggression, treating America like an enemy, conducted terrorism in Europe, and even took American sailors hostage for a short time. Iran did not behave like a budding new friend. 

The Iranians made it clear that there would be no friendship. They still do even under Biden:

Iran has made threats against Fort McNair, an Army base in the nation's capital, and against the Army’s vice chief of staff, two senior U.S. intelligence officials said.

And Iran promoted aggression and pushed their nuclear program ahead under the shield of the deal. So well that when Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal Iran could very rapidly openly take prohibited actions. Seriously, effing duh: 

Iran is deliberately concealing key components of its nuclear programme from UN inspectors that can be used for producing nuclear weapons, according to the latest reports received by Western intelligence officials.

The equipment being hidden from UN inspectors includes machinery, pumps and spare parts for centrifuges, the machines used to enrich uranium to weapons grade.

In addition, materials such as carbon fibre, which can be used in the production of advanced centrifuges, are also being stored at secret sites in Iran administered by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has overall responsibility for Iran’s nuclear programme.

Intelligence officials believe the material, which is supposed to be declared to UN inspectors under the terms of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal, is being stored in 75 containers.

And unless you think Iran is behind all of the Sunni jihadi terrorism as well as Shia unrest, it is especially odd to consider Iran the key to regional peace. Isn't that assumption damning of Iran? Not that the authors didn't unintentionally make a good point about mullah-run Iran.

Still, shouldn't the nuclear deal have made Iran so good that Trump would never have any reason to cancel the deal and put pressure on mullah-run Iran? After all, President Obama set up a goodness school for Iran with that deal.

We sure got our wallet out. But the goodness lessons didn't take. The mullahs and their thugs don't even say "please" as Biden reaches out to them to restore the deal and the enduring abusive and possibly co-dependent love affair that was the Obama-Biden relationship with Iran.

But at least John Kerry has been tasked with surrendering to the climate and not put on the Iran mission one more time. 

I don't get it. Why do those on the left have such an obsession with mullah-run Iranian friendship? But hey, at least the authors don't have an obsession with the Palestinians as the key to all regional peace. 

Ignore the panty-flinging fanboys and fangirls who love mullah-run Iran. Sometimes people here are just on the other side. And sometimes the countries those fans love are just our enemy.

Glorious Victory, Comrades!

Did Russia win anything of importance in Syria? I'm skeptical.

It is interesting that this analysis of whether Russia achieved a victory of any consequence in Syria starts with the assumption that the fall of Assad would mean a jihadi victory that would have a domino effect inside Russia. 

One, is that cause and effect true? Russia had problems with Moslems inside Russia well before the Syrian civil war. Was there an effect from the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan on Russia? Maybe there was. But I'd like more than an assertion.

Two, why would a jihadi-led defeat of Assad have been the last word on who controlled Syria after Assad? I assume a rough local coalition backed--and likely at cross-purposes in many cases--by Israel, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and America would have waged war on the Islamist victors. It wouldn't have been as focused as my Win, Build, Win approach to ISIL and Assad. But that would have been the rough outline.

And three, it wasn't Russian intervention that ended the Islamic State. That was the American coalition. Jihadis only control territory in the northwest where Russian efforts have been stalled by Turkey. 

I never thought Russia's expedition would be a large-scale "quagmire" for Russia. But I fail to see what Russia has really gained. An outpost in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is pointless without major resources. 

Ultimately the Syria intervention seems more as a justification for annexing Crimea. 

Also, I think it is inaccurate to say that Assad controls a large portion of Syria. Assad reigns but does not rule. Ruling seems to be more what the Russians do in their base areas and what Iranians and local military commanders do in other parts of Syria where rebels or terrorists were defeated. 

Unless Assad has reasserted authority since last I read about what is going on, of course. But I don't think so. Still, Assad survived the war. That is a personal victory and a victory for his surviving supporters.

But Russia? Yes, the intervention worked. Weapons were tested. Reputation enhanced. Even if it was the American intervention that was decisive. But Russia's victory seems pointless in the long run. And too expensive. 

Unless Putin convinces the West to pay for rebuilding Russia's new client state Syria. We're not that stupid, are we?

Force Multipliers

The real force we need to sustain in Afghanistan is the military contractor contingent that keeps the Afghan combat forces in the fight.

Private military contractors are crucial to keeping the Afghan security forces in the fight: 

In early 2021 the U.S. Department of Defense reported that there were 18,000 contractors in Afghanistan, about seven for each remaining American soldier. Demand for foreign military contractors has always been strong in Afghanistan and the current number is seen as inadequate. That’s because many of the contractors are needed to support Afghan forces, which are chronically short of locals who can supply such logistical and technical support for the security forces.

Technically they are "mercenaries" but that is a pejorative. There is more on Afghanistan and the background in general. I tend to speak of Russian "military contractors" rather than  "mercenaries," too. Although I use the latter term as a description sometimes without the judgment angle. 

Using military contractors is a revived practice in the post-Cold War world, as I used to write about in TDR more, which are collected here (for only 99 cents!). 

I worry that if American troops go, other foreign troops will go. And if all the foreign troops are gone nobody will want to pay for the contractors. And then Afghanistan or parts of it serve as a haven for terrorists who will one day strike hard again.

As an aside, the military contractor issue always made it more difficult to use math to see if we had enough troops in the Iraqi and Afghan campaigns to win. Generally, you wanted 2% of the population in security forces to separate insurgents from the people.  That separation could be to protect the people if the people were friendly to the government. Or to deny insurgents access to civilians for support, if the people were hostile to the government

In the past with more troops carrying out support functions, it was easier to count troop density in the fight. In the 21st century fights those contractors outnumbered our troops but did jobs that troops used to do. But weren't counted in determining troop density requirements. I tried to factor them in for the Iraqi campaign when news stories mentioned them but it wasn't easy. And I don't think I realized the full extent of their usage at the time. I still judged that we had enough troops to win, with a couple exceptions in time. I may have been wrong in those exceptions if you toss in the military contractors in their full numbers.

Anyway. Contractors aren't going away and their usage is spreading.

UPDATE: We need to stay:

Afghanistan’s military forces need U.S. assistance to successfully counter the Taliban, the top general for U.S. Special Operations Command told Congress on Thursday, amid debate over whether American forces should remain in the country beyond May 1.

If America pulls our troops out, NATO pulls its troops out. If all foreign troops leave, the contractors won't stay. Or won't stay long as Western will to pay for them wanes after leaving.

The Army is Phase Two

The joint fight to defeat the Chinese navy is taking shape. Will it take shape fully in all the domains?

Good!

U.S. Marines, soldiers and airmen for nearly two weeks polished a new approach to island warfare in the Western Pacific designed to deny surrounding seas to potential adversaries.

They deployed small groups of highly trained troops, fast-moving artillery and stealthy fighter jets to grab territory from which rockets could launch.

Exercise Castaway, which concludes Saturday on this island just off Okinawa’s northwest coast, demonstrates how a relatively small, widely dispersed force could seize and hold useful territory in the early stages of a conflict.

The tactic is called expeditionary advanced base operations. The potential adversary, left unsaid, is widely understood to be China.

I did discuss this dispersed operating in Proceedings while advocating for an armed transport to move those small units. I don't like the concept of the actual ship that is taking shape.

But something is missing:

Don't forget Phase 2.

While I'm not against the Army taking part in this concept to defeat the Chinese fleet, once America and our allies gain control of the seas, the tyranny of the shores will call and may require the Army to provide its core competency in land combat. Or at least be able to threaten it.

UPDATE: Hmmm:

“The Army will provide [joint] combatant commanders with land forces that are persistent, cost effective, and survivable,” the paper says. “Technologically connected and geographically dispersed Army forces deployed across the land – whether archipelagic [i.e. islands] or continental – present a key operational problem for adversary sensing and targeting. Put simply, land forces are hard to kill.”

Land forces can be isolated and left to wither on the vine, however. So take care not to island hop into positions the Chinese can cut off.

Remember, American forces in Bataan started out inside the Japanese A2/AD envelope.