The Winter War of 2022 Seeks the Wrong Historical Analogy

The ceremonies on the 80th anniversary of the Battle of Iwo Jima sure sounded like a signal to Russia that it can become our friend--with NATO following--despite our history of animosity. Nice try.

The war goes on. What detail is really significant to note?

Huh:

“The U.S.-Japan alliance shows ... how yesterday’s enemy has become today’s friends,” Hegseth said. “Our alliance has been and remains the cornerstone of freedom, prosperity, security and peace in the Indo-Pacific.”

The emphasis was on the sacrifice by the troops of both sides. 

Perhaps this is new to me because I haven't seen such anniversary speeches before. Maybe this has become common as World War II fades and our alliance with a democratic Japan is our reality. Regardless, I can see this being a signal to Russia that it, too, could become our friend. 

But if intended as a signal to Russia, the problem is that America utterly defeated Japan and occupied it, wrote its constitution, compelled it to abandon its militaristic ideology, and insisted that their emperor could no longer be a god-like entity of worship and obedience.

We cannot impose such conditions on Russia after an "end" to the Winter War of 2022 any more than we could do so after defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War. Which means the signal to Putin's Russia--if that was the intention--is empty:

Being somewhat harsh to the defeated aggressor may fuel the next war by giving them grievances without taking away their power. But that does not mean being kind to the defeated aggressor is the wise course of action. When you strike an aggressive king, you need to kill him. But nukes complicate that.

If temporarily ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine short of Russia's initial objective of completely conquering and absorbing Ukraine is done under American diplomacy, you can write the script in Moscow:

Does the West need to provide Russia with a generous "off ramp" to end its war on Ukraine? No. engineering a ceasefire that "saves" Ukraine by giving Russia some of Ukraine will eventually be described as a Western betrayal that denied Russia's glorious military all of Ukraine.

There is one path right now. I've long hoped we could get Russia to "flip" and turn western Russia into a safe rear area. Russia could then focus on blocking China in Central Asia and defend Russian Far East territory. The latter has a Sword of Damocles hanging over it left over from that territorial stain on China's honor and power inflicted by Russia during China's "Century of Humiliation."

I fear that Russia has dug such a deep hole in Ukraine for itself that it is now Russia's grave, locking Russia into conflict with the West because Russia with its ravaged military and reputation (self-inflicted, to be sure) cannot yet risk China's wrath by turning against China--no matter how necessary that is. 

Have a super sparkly day.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.  

In case you missed it on Substack: Alliances are Based on Often-Transitory Common Interests

In case you missed it on Substack: The Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Did Not Cost $8 Trillion

In case you missed it on Substack: Grand Strategy

In case you missed it on Substack: Has Russia Lost the Winter War of 2022?

It was a joy to hear Victor Hanson reject the idea that the Treaty of Versailles was too harsh on German and caused another world war. I've long called BS on that theory. 

I'm old enough to remember when me and my friends were psyched about this ship when it was new.

Iran built an escort carrier. 

Micronesia and America have an understanding on building military infrastructure in the State of Yap.

Verifying the importance to America of ensuring the territorial security of the Philippines. 

The Marines will have Littoral Rotational Force-Luzon beginning this year in the Philippines to maintain a presence there. Marines will need anti-missiles with longer range, but will be useful there.

At the intersection of Follow the Science Parkway and Colluding With Putin Boulevard.

The U.S. continued to hit the Houthi with air strikes. So far no big booms carried by B-2s.

Iran refuses to negotiate directly with America over its nuclear programs. Just how close is Iran to having nuclear weapons if they are stiff-arming us?

China's persistent efforts to take Second Thomas Shoal. That rusting hulk is Freedom's Outpost. 

Singapore adds small unmanned surface vessels to patrol the Singapore Strait And America and China are active.

Young fervently nationalistic Chinese set their sights on Australia. Changes to the official map in 3, 2, 1 ... . Asia for the Asians 2.0, eh?

More A-10s were sent to CENTCOM. 

While Tomahawk cruise missiles are old and likely to face problems against modern air defenses, they are still useful against enemies like the Houthi. Production has not matched usage for quite some time.

I never thought I'd have to remind a Western country of this, but if you don't let voters change their government with ballots, they will do it with bullets. Tip to Instapundit.

The Army is thinking about putting its afloat Army Prepositioned Stock 3 set ashore rather than maintaining flexibility by sea. Are we really going to predict where we'll need that stuff? Or spread it out so much that at no point will the stocks significantly add to our capabilities in a crisis? 

Does joining the EU require Ukraine to reject a rare earths deal to repay America for weapons and assistance? 

Germany decides to rearm. Given that it has just three army divisions, it has a long way to go just to defend itself. But don't talk to me about "lost" trust.

So, no famine in Gaza happened. Tip to Instapundit.

This seems to be symbolic attack on Putin since he wasn't in the torched vehicle. But who sent the message? External or internal?

China certainly likes to appear near Taiwan.

I respect the man for volunteering to fight the Russians in Ukraine. But America did not abandon him for the simple reason that his country did not send him. He may have noticed he does not wear an American uniform. And America continues to support Ukraine. But interests do diverge. 

Will Russia reach into the back of the closet for the MiG-35?

New NATO ally Sweden has stepped up in sending aid to Ukraine. 

I suspect that Russia shouldn't assume that time is on its side in the Winter War of 2022.

"In effect, the Northern Fleet has ceased to function." Building it up a bit is a waste, all things considered.

But F-16 pilots are too few: "Ukraine has received 85 F-16s contributed by the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark. France has sent over a dozen Mirage 2000 fighters." Ukraine lost most of its Soviet fighters. 

Good one! Tip to Instapundit. 

American forces struck the Houthi again.

The Winter Wary of 2022 by other means. It's one means to win. Wage it like it matters. And don't let up on the other means.

RAND takes a look at Hezbollah’s Networks in Latin America. Hezbollah isn't fully reliant on Iran. Remember how we refused to gut the network because our government loooved Iran? 

Even if we wanted to, the Marines couldn't go ashore to defeat the Houthi. Somebody needs to. Because there are limits on what air power alone can achieve. Don's sink, don't shoot. What do Marines do?

No doubt Taiwan deserves to be free. I just have my doubts if its people will fight on when the going gets rough.

Sure, stopping Iran from getting nukes is important; but Pakistan already has working nukes. Who knows how close it is to becoming an Islamist nutjob state. And as the article asks, how secure are those nukes? 

Germany has a functioning armored brigade: "The 45 Armoured Brigade of the German Army became operational following an activation ceremony in Vilnius[, Lithuania]." Sadly, this is progress.

Via Instapundit: "Ve haf vays of making you tell our truth!" Boy, that Vance fellow was waay off base, eh?

China's air-launched ballistic missile may be operational.

Odd that Iran's peaceful nuclear energy program can be converted to weapons so quickly: "Senior Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Larijani stated on March 31 that a US or Israeli strike on Iran would 'force' Iran to develop a nuclear weapon to 'defend its security.'" 

Finland wisely cancelled its landmine ban. But don't worry! The vast majority of signatories to the global ban that will never need them remain in the treaty!

I'm happy that unit commanders will now be able to lead their units and decide what training their troops need. 

The Congo "heart of darkness" isn't so much a state as it is a void on the map with a UN seat surrounded by states that project power into it.

You can automate only so much: "The Military Sealift Command/MSC is having problems recruiting sufficient personnel to man the growing number of ships used by MSC to support American military and diplomatic missions overseas." 

A path through the Signal kerfuffle?

Israel's opportunity against Iran after peace in Ukraine. Sure. But will we get peace in Ukraine or just time for Putin to reload?

Is Germany already getting ready to end rearmament with a Russia "reset"?  The German question remains unanswered.

The Philippines will be allowed to buy F-16s.

Israel will widen its ground campaign to seize more of Gaza. I suppose a year and a half of killing jihadis should do some good.

The Syrian government and the Kurdish-dominated SDF agreed to a "comprehensive" ceasefire that required the SDF to withdraw from a couple Kurdish areas.

Building robotic loyal wingmen.

Is America downgrading military aid to Ukraine or just the high-profile meetings? 

Russia seems to be gearing up for new offensives. With their weapon stocks decimated and lacking the artillery dominance of the early war, how many Russian troops will die to carry this out?

Somalia is trying to entice America into suppressing Somaliland's and Puntland's separatism. 

If Denmark wants to justify more naval strength with the faux American threat to Greenland, whatever it takes for them to sleep at night.

Greece is arming up. This would be nice for NATO if the effort wasn't focused on fellow problematic NATO state Turkey. 

American electronic warfare skills atrophied during the war on terror campaigns.

Israel prepared for Iran's missile and drone barrages by dispersing key facilities underground.

North Korea demonstrated its ability to initiate a EMP murder-suicide pact without South Korea's cooperation.

Crossing the anti-democratic Rubicon in Europe. My long-held worry about Europe's commitment to freedom that Vance highlighted is silly, right?

Fetishizing NATO's Article V is silly, because a treaty does not replace this: "America’s alliances are not just maintained through treaties and rhetoric, but through trust, equipment, personnel and shared peril."

America increased tariffs on imports. As a rule, I'm against them. Hopefully this is a tool for reciprocal treatment on trade barriers. And a tool for building up key industries here. That's good. But "protecting" industries too long encourages them to rely on government support. So this could help or hurt America.

Kazakhstan tries to play off Russia against China to maintain sovereignty. Russia has not been shy about its objective of reabsorbing Kazakhstan.

When trains were the tip of the military spear and not "just" the logistics line. 

One thing that bothers me about Trump's tariff strategy is that we are taking on the world all at once rather than picking the weak ones out of the herd to get them to comply one at a time. Divide and conquer rather than uniting enemies should be the plan, no?

"Granting" spheres of influence to the likes of Russia and China is morally bankrupt by formalizing vassalage and oppression to people in "their" spheres. Nobody says we have to die to liberate anyone they rule. But validating oppression? No. And it won't produce peace. Drawing lines on a map is a siren song.

It would be "problematic" for America to relinquish the top NATO job. "Leading from behind" won't work. And stripping our already light presence in Europe that justifies command is folly. There isn't even room to put those ground and air units in the western Pacific.

Passive building defense. OUT: sand bags. IN: anti-drone nets. 

If this is so vital, why wouldn't Sri Lanka prioritize funding for it? "the Trump administration’s suspension of aid threatens Sri Lanka’s demining operations, pushing the livelihoods of thousands like Pushparani into uncertainty." America is not a Sri Lanka jobs program.

The good kind of Army missile magnets.

Space Force wants ground-based anti-satellite weapons.

Well, yes, as the northern anchor of the GIUK Gap, Greenland is vital for anti-submarine capabilities. But stop acting like America would actually seize it from our ally Denmark.

Congo wants America to provide peace for its mineral riches that China covets? It is insane to think we can or should provide security in that void. Do what we can to help thwart China. But have firm guard rails.

Arab Moslem leadership understands "we have met the enemy and they are us."

Huh: "Iran has ordered its military personnel to leave Yemen amidst the ongoing US bombing campaign in the country[.]" 

China advances shore-based firepower, anti-submarine warfare, blue water navy capabilities, and nukes.

These Virginia modules are key to replacing the Tomahawk capacity across our SSN fleet of four SSGNs when they retire.

I assume military history that of course includes minorities and women will return to DOD sites after divisive DEI is scrubbed. But yeah, "malicious compliance" is probably a factor in the broad scrub.

Yes, Europe is losing its war on its southern front. Don't for a second forget that Russian actions in Africa have a goal of weaponizing refugees and migrants to destabilize Europe.

Putin and Kim hate the West but mistrust China. Nothing we can do about hating the West. But can't we help them fear China more?

About disengaging from Europe: "the U.S. Army force went from two corps and over six divisions with 18 combat brigades during the Cold War, to the current four brigades." And the four is an increase from the two brigades there prior to Russia's renewed invasion of Ukraine.

We have an objective rather than sailing about for Houthi target practice: "US Central Command (CENTCOM) is conducting a military operation in Yemen that aims to render the Houthis unable or unwilling to continue attacks that threaten US ships and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea." But ...

I continue to believe Russia is trying to hold up its Potemkin Village facade of economic strength in the hopes that the West will ease the pressure before Russia collapses. It's the only strategy they have. And I can't say it won't work. 

I hear people say tariff rates lead to an equal inflation rate. Imports are a fraction of the economy. And tariffs take place at the port of entry at their import price. I think most of the retail price comes from the supply chain leading from the port to the point of sale. A tariff is inflationary. It just isn't 1:1.

The spokesman for the Carthage government was unavailable for comment. 

Is it mere RUMINT that China will invade Taiwan this year? If true, this is how China will get across the Taiwan Strait. In Military Review I discussed China's minimal victory conditions. I now resist timing predictions.

I assume Ukraine will bomb the Hell out of it before launched. Ukraine avoided a bigger threat already.

Was China's second highest ranking general purged? If so, why? It is a lot of speculation built on one absence, so ...

From the "Well, Duh" file: China's new offshore unloading barges would need a protective bubble to land vehicles on Taiwan. 

NATO believes Russia has endured 900,000 casualties, including 255,000 dead, in its invasion of Ukraine.

Some Argentinians--how many is not clear from the article--want the Falkland Islands back and apparently don't rule out force. 

Iran may be ruled by Islamist nutjobs, but they haven't accepted final defeat in Syria, planning to regain influence. I certainly hope we haven't accepted final defeat in Afghanistan. 

The Philippines pledges to build military capabilities sufficient to deter China. Will the ability to escalate to a small war and risk American and allied involvement brush back China?

American B-2s based on Diego Garcia are striking Houthi targets. 

Russia wages low-level warfare, including packages with explosives targeting Westerners.

Deploy the Smoke Screen!

The Army should make sure it has smoke screens--okay, "obscurants" to encompass more than the old-style simple white smoke. Why that is not used in the Winter War of 2022 along mostly static trench lines is beyond me.

Yes! Modern smoke screens should be used on the battlefield!

A key component missing from Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. Army’s tool kit is a panoply of obscuration means that blunts an adversary’s observation capability. To affect large-scale combat operations (LSCO) in the current operational environment, the Army must reevaluate its position on battlefield obscurants to enable complex operations and reduce casualties. Conducting a breach on a heavily defended line requires adequate time to reduce obstacles and proof a cleared lane, whether mounted or dismounted. Obscuration is a critical component, providing the breaching force concealment to perform this complicated operation while maintaining combat power. Without an array of obscuration tools, the Army will suffer the same high casualty rates and potential mission failure that Ukraine and Russia suffered in their ongoing conflict.  

Cheap drones require clear daylight skies for the Mark I eyeball to work. And while different sensors mounted on the drones can penetrate old-style smoke (or darkness), that means drones aren't as cheap--so not as numerous. Modern obscurants would require even more expensive sensors to penetrate. 

While the Army will want the ability use obscurants while fighting on the move, couldn't Ukraine use simpler static smoke generators behind the front? I've long wondered about the lack of such things in the ongoing war, although I don't think I've ever written about it. My bad. Kudos to LTC Carvelli.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Great White North Kerfuffle Begins to Fade

America and Canada remain allies, notwithstanding the amplified disagreements among friends. And now Canada is stepping up its North America defenses.

Woo! 

Canada has made a 6 billion Canadian dollar ($4.2 billion) deal with Australia to develop a cutting-edge radar for the Arctic that can detect hypersonic missiles and other threats over the curvature of the earth, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced on Tuesday.

Mr. Carney also announced hundreds of millions of dollars in new spending to carry out year-round military exercises in the Arctic and to build up vital infrastructure for the Indigenous communities that make up most of the population there.

Canada won't stink on ice!  

There is no "crisis" in U.S.-Canadian relations. It's not like the bitter and lengthy Cod Wars, after all. If it was, Canada would be building border defenses at Windsor and blowing the bridges and tunnel leading into Canada. What we have is just a well-publicized politically convenient "Canadian Bacon" kerfuffle (for both Trump and Carney) over terms of trade.

Well, it's a kerfuffle unless Canadians start believing their own BS in response to our silly "51st state" and "governor" taunts. Oh ... .

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.  

NOTE: Image from the article, by Alex Welsh for The New York Times.

Bring On the Theater Army?

I've often focused on an Army corps because with just ten divisions in the active component, that seems like the most likely maximum echelon in combat without significant mobilization of reserves and creation of new forces. But exploiting other service capabilities in multidomain warfare actually requires a theater army headquarters.

This is interesting:

Theater armies are the most obscure Army echelon. Nevertheless, their complex mission is indispensable to Army support to joint force campaigns through multidomain operations (MDO). Theater armies (TA) provide an extensive breadth of capabilities such as theater-level sustainment, intelligence, fires, information advantage activities, protection, signal, aviation, medical, and civil affairs formations and staffs. TAs also provide unique access to the joint- and national-level enterprise. As the Army integrates MDO, most leaders tend to focus on the corps and division as the decisive echelons for large-scale combat operations in the land domain. However, to be decisive, the corps and division must have areas of operation properly managed by a TA, which enables their focus on achieving their objectives in close combat. In other words, the TA is the most significant enabler of MDO.

Okay, I have some problems with taking multidomain too far by straying too much over service boundaries of core competencies. I think multidomain synergy is best created by each service winning their domain. And it seems odd to have a theater army commanding a single corps.

That said, the fact that theater army is needed indicates cross-boundary encroachment hasn't gotten out of hand. And given that the Army had stripped down corps to be campaign-fighting headquarters rather than Cold War-era bloated entities, it makes sense that a theater army is needed rather than bloating the corps headquarters with too many staff officers.

Unless artificial intelligence (gulp) can push down theater army capabilities for integrating service capabilities to the corps without bloating and complicating the corps ability to effectively command its assets, that seems reasonable to me.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. 

NOTE: Image from the article. ["Standard theater-level enablers include a theater sustainment command, theater medical command, signal command (theater), civil affairs command, and military intelligence brigade–theater. ... As theater operations expand, additional theater-level forces may include an Army air and missile defense command; a security force assistance brigade; a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and explosives command (CBRNE); engineers; military police; a battlefield coordination detachment; regional support groups; theater liaison detachments; and Army field support brigades."]

There is No "Reasonable Man" Standard for Judging Israel

Urban warfare is a minefield of bad publicity and enemy propaganda even if you aren't Israel with four strikes against it before stepping up to the plate. 

Should we draw lessons for maintaining legitimacy of the military efforts of Israel in Gaza urban terrain?

In urban warfare, where combat unfolds amid a multitude of civilians and dense infrastructures, maintaining legitimacy is not merely a legal formality—it is a strategic imperative. According to U.S. military joint doctrine, legitimacy is one of the twelve principles of joint operations. Its purpose is to “maintain legal and moral authority in the conduct of operations,” and it is grounded in the “actual and perceived legality, morality, and rightness of actions from the various perspectives of interested audiences” to include national leadership, domestic populations, governments, local communities in the operational area, and international audiences.

The perception of legitimacy underpins the credibility of the strategic goals military action is used to achieve. Indeed, if there is one transcendent lesson from the Israeli campaign against Hamas, it is this: the perception of illegitimacy will snatch strategic defeat from the jaws of overwhelming tactical victory.

I think that is futile given that much of the world and those who "report" on it considers Israel itself to be illegitimate and any use of force by Israel--which to me seems largely proportional under the laws of war--is a war crime; while Hamas war crimes are ignored or even celebrated.

As long as our troops are following the rules of war, letting them come home with honor as soldiers rather than as brutal killers--and if we aren't shy about explaining that--we should consider that good enough when it comes to the opinion of the sainted international community. Our standards are superior to their standards.

Still, that claimed lesson is another reason to avoid fighting in cities (as I argued in Army magazine) if we can achieve campaign objectives without entering that moral authority booby trap, eh?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. 

Europeans Will Build Their Own F-35 Kill Switch

Traditionally,  Europeans have built their own kill switches for their aircraft. Don't blame America.

There is no "kill switch" that lets America disable allied F-35s. 

In the shadow of escalating tensions between Europe and the United States over NATO commitments and the war in Ukraine, a persistent myth about the F-35 Lightning II has exploded online: the notion that the Pentagon has embedded a “kill switch” in the fifth-generation fighter jet, allowing it to remotely disable or impair the aircraft operated by foreign allies.

Honestly, it could be a revised Russian information operation to kill a plane they fear. The Russians are persistent and bold liars.

And traditionally, the real "kill switch" has been the failure of allies to buy the spare parts and missiles that keep their planes fighting for more than four days. We saw that weakness in the fight against ISIL; and earlier over Libya, which the Europeans made a plan to solve.

Only allies looking for an excuse to avoid re-arming will claim this allegation is true. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

The Winter War of 2022 Invites Serial Wars

Making future invasions of Ukraine more expensive for Russia is not the same as deterring Russia.

My impression is that Ukraine is increasingly challenging Russia's theater-wide initiative with local counter-attacks and its new attack into Russia's Belgorod province. Does this telegraph a new big effort two years after the failed 2023 summer counteroffensive? Or is it just local counter-attacks?

Ukraine's friends begin to look beyond this war, but--and forgive the technical term--this proposal is "stupid":

As U.S.-led talks with Russia and Ukraine progress, without the Europeans at the table, the 27-nation bloc is pressing ahead with a steel “porcupine strategy” aimed at building the Ukrainian armed forces, and the country’s defense industry, into an even more formidable opponent.

If Russia isn't deterred by the hundreds of thousands of killed and crippled from its invasion over the last three years, a European plan like this will add nothing. And if the prospect of even more casualties and economic pain doesn't deter Russia, this kind of European plan will invite Russia to come back again and again for more territory.

Because a porcupine strategy is all about killing enemies to impose a cost they won't want to pay. What on God's green Earth do you think the Ukrainians have been doing the last three+ years? This kind of strategy begins the journey from victory to defeat with a short stop at deterrence.

Without giving Ukraine the capabilities to drive the Russians out of Ukraine, Russia will know it is safe to attack again after reloading for a few years. It will gain more ground that Ukraine doesn't have the weapons to drive back. 

Lather. Rinse. Repeat. And as long as Russia is willing to pay the price for overcoming those figurative quills, eventually Russia has all of Ukraine.

Stop the "porcupine" murder-suicide pact strategy!

UPDATE (Monday): Russia conscripts new recruits in spring and autumn cycles. The pattern is 100,000, or more. This spring, Putin ordered a much larger intake (since 2012) of 18-30 year old males:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has called up 160,000 young men for military service against the backdrop of his war against Ukraine.

Losses have been heavier the last half year, or more, and outstripped recruiting. Will this fill the ranks? Or will it bring in young men more prone to insubordination? 

UPDATE (Wednesday): The record wasn't set by much. Perhaps this simply represents expanded training capacity. When does this hit demographic capacity limits?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.