Damn the Torpedoes? Belay That Order!

The Red Sea is no longer freely accessible to ships because of Iran's proxy campaign via the Houthi to threaten ships trying to use that vital waterway. Operation Simulate Resolve continues.

FFS: 

The Red Sea, one of the world’s busiest and most strategically vital waterways, has become so hazardous that even the German Navy is steering clear. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius’s decision to redirect the frigate Baden-Württemberg and support vessel Frankfurt am Main around the Cape of Good Hope on their return from an Indo-Pacific deployment speaks volumes. The Red Sea is now deemed too perilous, underscoring just how ineffective current U.S. and EU naval protections are in this region.

I know why the EU mission is ineffective. Securing the seas is not the EU's mission. But what is our Navy's excuse for its failure to secure the sea?  

UPDATE: A timely article notes that shipping container traffic through the Red Sea is down 90% since December 2023, and that:

the United States should go on the offense against the Houthis by going after their command and control centers, logistical infrastructures, arms shipments, and drone production facilities.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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Mission Accomplished?

Colombia still has problems despite their 2016 "peace" deal with communist rebels.

In addition to the land mines still littering the countryside, Colombia isn't getting the peace dividend it expected from the 2016 peace deal with the major communist insurgency group that had plagued the country for many decades:

In 2017 FARC demobilized, as agreed. The demobilization did not bring peace because the demobilized FARC members then formed nearly three dozen new gangs that engaged in a variety of criminal activities including robbery, drug dealing, kidnapping for ransom and multiple other forms of violent mischief. These crimes are rarely punished because the gangs either bribe, intimidate or murder judges presiding over these cases.

And corruption plays a role. Hey, if you weren't allowed to beat them, why not join them?

I had my doubts about the process. I wasn't happy with the deal our government was apparently pushing Colombia to accept which welcomed FARC into the political process. 

The idea that a deal should save an enemy being defeated is insane:

If you want peace, you need someone to win. Make sure the good guys are the victor. In the war and in the post-war. A Participation Ribbon is not good enough.

That path turns victory into a ceasefire until the enemy can return, perhaps on different battlefields. 

And two years ago I noted the new battlefield:

Colombia votes for "bad luck" by choosing a "former" Marxist to lead them.

Colombia didn't win in 2016. But it's taken time to make it apparent.

The initial article takes a lengthy side trip into Venezuela as well. Obviously we'll aim for another Participation Ribbon that the Best and Brightest will celebrate as Smart Diplomacy.®

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The Evil Empire (The Other Guys)

The European Union is an enemy of America and European freedom and democracy. Let's not forget that.

Well put:

To elite Remainers in the UK, the EU represents all that is good and holy. Apparently, it is a motor of economic dynamism, a haven of political stability and a shining beacon of liberal, democratic values. Leaving it, they say, as the public voted to do in 2016, has put Britain on the path to economic and social ruin. ...

But this starry-eyed view of the EU seems to be a delusion confined to Britain’s ruling class. Over on the continent, even ardent Europhiles are sounding the alarm about the EU’s mounting problems. ...

Despite posing as a bastion of liberal democracy, the European Union is a thoroughly anti-democratic, illiberal institution, led by an unelected Commission, designed to take decisions out of the hands of European voters. Which is why the issue of democracy and control was at the forefront when Brits wisely voted to leave this thing back in 2016.

You might think that your reasonable host ups the rant-to-dignified ratio a tad high when I write about the anti-American European Union as a proto-imperial project with the EU leadership and paid minions working every day to strip away the prefix.

But I stand behind that assessment. It's just the reality readily apparent without a starry-eyed (distant) view of "ever closer union" under Brussels rule. FFS, Britain wouldn't voluntarily walk back into that open-air continental prison camp, would it? 

UPDATE: Meanwhile on the continent:

German Government Collapse Is a Bad Sign for Europe

Hmmm. While no doubt bad for Germany, is this really bad for "Europe?" While it may be bad for the European Union, do not become confused and believe geographic Europe is the same as political Europe.

And I should note the author is a self-described "activist and commentator on EU policy, especially the environment, energy, and the rise of the far-right". Her doubling down on one cause of Europe's economic decline--a single-minded focus on "green" energy--as the solution undermines her credibility in my eyes.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: I made the illustration with my old DALL-E 3 account.

The Latest Fad From Europe Arrives

I think we should ease off on the enthusiastic embrace of unmanned surface drones.

Oh? 

A number of NATO countries are pursuing new naval concepts based on sea drones programmed to keep adversaries out of allied waters, a nod to Ukraine’s pursuits with such weapons against Russian ships. 

The alliance nations belong to the so-called Joint Capability Group for Maritime Unmanned Systems, or JCGMUS. The group, created following the 2018 NATO summit in Brussels, comprises more than a dozen nations considered full members, partners or observers.

I see we are fully into Torpedo Boat Craze 2.0.  

UPDATE: The INDOPACOM commander isn't screeching like a fanboy.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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The Winter War of 2022 and the Art of the Ukraine Deal

Donald Trump will become the next president and the question of how this will affect American aid to Ukraine is obviously a big question. I see the issue as reliant on two main factors. Trump would not want to have a loss like Afghanistan on his watch. And Trump does not want America to look like a sucker for paying too much for what benefits Europe, too.

For now the war goes on, and the Biden administration is accelerating appropriated military aid to Ukraine, hoping to commit it before Trump is sworn in. Then the question is what Trump's policy will be.

First of all, the foundation of our options should be preventing Europe from being a platform to threaten America. That has been a longstanding problem for America that America's growing power only allowed it to seriously affect a little over a century ago.

This should mean America remains strongly involved in NATO but with Europeans picking up more of the defense slack. This keeps Russia away from the Atlantic at a lower cost than the Cold War required. And prevents the rise of the proto-imperial European Union that would eventually be a threat.

Second, Biden's approval and reputation abroad took a big hit when he needlessly lost the Afghanistan War in the mistaken belief that American desire to end that war included support for any path including abandoning the Afghanistan government, letting the Taliban win and capture a lot of American military equipment intended to fight the Taliban. 

And third, let's not pretend that ending the war is solely in American hands. As much as I believe Russia could crack first, Russia has the initiative on the battlefield and so Ukraine could break. No matter how much Ukraine wants its territory back, after nearly three years of war with no sign Russia can be pushed out, how much longer will Ukrainians be willing to fight even with massively escalated American military aid?

Yes, I remain perplexed that a lot of Republicans oddly came to oppose aiding Ukraine too much--or even at all. But when faced with defeat in Europe, some of that opposition to aid may well be superseded by horror at losing, if the Afghanistan defeat is any predictor. Given the highly partisan nature of our politics these days, other Republicans who oppose aid to Ukraine will tolerate or support continued aid. Welcome back to the party, eh?

Further, as I explained in that "perplexed" link above, I believe Biden only accidentally supported Ukraine in his belief that token arms for an insurgency and accepting a Ukrainian government-in-exile as Russia overran Ukraine would be enough to show this time--unlike in Afghanistan--America tried to do the right thing. Growing Democratic reversion to an anti-war stance on Ukraine--remember how Afghanistan went from their "good war" to just another bad one to "end"--will make it easier for Trump to find a way to support Ukraine.

I of course will not change my views on defense and national security issues based on political changes.  I've certainly changed my mind on some issues. Changing facts can require that. But you can certainly see that I don't blow with political winds given I have blogged since 2002.

I firmly believe "ending" the Winter War of 2022 should not mean that Ukraine loses the war. The problem is whether preventing Ukraine from losing now with a deal actually secures Ukraine or simply provides a decent interval before Russia resumes the war in a better military position than Ukraine.

Basically, does Trump let Putin get away with pretending the war is ended without any withdrawal; or does Trump react by arming Ukraine to the teeth?

The former risks Russia resuming the war sooner rather than later, possibly against a Ukraine demoralized by the losses it suffered without reclaiming any land it has lost since 2014.

And if the latter, how is the aid structured to be transactional and beneficial to America as well as to Ukraine? By using frozen Russian assets in the West? By deals that are paid with loans (and let future leaders decide if and how the loans are repaid)? By deals paid for by Europeans unable to increase their own defense industry to replace some of our weapons and munitions? By getting percentages of economic assets or strategic materials inside Ukraine as payment for arms that Ukraine says it must have to win?

Face it, a lot of ways exist for arms to flow to Ukraine without it being "aid" on our financial ledger. Including a peace deal that "sells" Crimea to Russia--plus back rent--and uses frozen Russian assets to pay Ukraine a high price for the lost territory that Ukraine can use to rebuild Ukraine. Heck, maybe that formula extends to pre-2022 Donbas conquests because Ukraine doesn't really want pro-Russian people inside Ukraine as a Fifth Column. Could Putin sell either as a victory that allows him to withdraw from Ukrainian territory captured since 2022?

Heck, Trump the deal maker might be entering office with really good timing to get a good deal:

The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term.

And:

A recent Russian state-affiliated poll suggests that most Russian residents feel largely unaffected by the war in Ukraine, supporting reports of growing concerns among Russian officials and elites that many citizens remain indifferent towards the war.

Remember, the idea that Trump is in thrall to Putin is refuted by comparing his record to Obama's. If that myth shapes your view on what Trump will do, the foundation of your opinion is weak. Given that Russia needs American friendship much more than America needs Russian friendship, Trump could get a very good deal for any so-called "reset." And if Ukraine is kept strong enough after the guns fall silent (I won't call it "peace"), the high losses Russia has endured may well--as it did in the original 1939-1940 Winter War that kept Finland independent--deter Russia from reigniting the war because it has bigger problems to cope with.

Trump might carry out policies in regard to Ukraine that I strongly oppose. But I don't think that the factors shaping Trump's policies mean that is likely. We'll see.

UPDATE (Monday): Related thoughts. I don't know how I missed it unless it only recently was added here. 

UPDATE (Tuesday) I think this is an accurate assessment at the thousand-day mark, as artificial as this mark is:

Russia is expending huge amounts of weaponry and human life to make small-but-steady territorial gains to the nearly one-fifth of Ukraine it already controls. Ukraine, meanwhile, is struggling to minimize losses, maintain morale and convince allies that, with more military aid, it can turn the tide. 

But implicit in that assessment is that the cost to Russia is a struggle for it to maintain, too. Yes, Putin is willing to pay that price. But can Russia cover his bloody check made in the currency of their lives?

UPDATE (Tuesday): I find this a fascinating inversion from the reason tanks were invited over a century ago--shielding infantry from growing battlefield firepower:

The Russian military command has likely assessed that offsetting Ukraine's drone advantages and reducing Russian armored vehicle losses through urban combat is worth the large numbers of Russian casualties that will come from grinding, attritional advances in frontline towns and cities.

The cogs will just have to turn and break their teeth on command. Can't risk those ancient T-62s, eh?

UPDATE (Wednesday): America now allows Ukraine to use ATACMS missiles in Russian territory around the Kursk salient:

Ukrainian forces struck the Russian military's 67th Main Military and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) arsenal of the 1046th Logistics Support Center near Karachev on the night of November 18 to 19 and that the strike caused an initial detonation and 12 secondary explosions.

This is not an American escalation and provocation that will lead to nuclear war between America and Russia. Russia is loudly complaining to frighten Westerners into limiting Western support. The big escalation was Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the first place.

UPDATE (Thursday): Regarding my Crimea proposal mentioned and linked in the main body, I've long said Ukraine may not want to pay the price to drive the Russians out:

Zelenskiy, interviewed by Fox News on a train in Ukraine and broadcast on Wednesday, said his country could not afford to lose the number of lives that would be required to retake Crimea through military means.

Ukraine needs our military aid and financial help. But Ukraine bleeds.

Maybe a peace plan requires Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory in exchange for Ukraine remaining outside of NATO. It would be a well-armed Ukraine that cooperates with NATO. But not an alliance member with other NATO facilities or combat units inside Ukraine. If Russia declines that bargain, Ukraine enters NATO.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

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Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

Could North Korea in 2025 follow the logic of a Kooks, Spooks, and Nukes strategy that downgrades the army to save money by selling to Russia a majority of their 3,500+ old tanks in order to keep Russia's tank force in action against Ukraine?

Ukraine likes their M777 155mm howitzers despite losing half to destruction or damage: "Despite these losses both sides find their howitzers extremely useful and effective doing jobs drones can’t handle."

Win-win: "Russia accepted the Chinese proposals for allowing Chinese farmers to enter the underused central Russian and far eastern farmlands. The large number of Chinese farmers would produce a lot more food, which the Chinese were willing to pay for." Food safe from blockade. And colonists in place.

I was informed it was a "peace dividend": "When looking at the maritime industrial base, it was post-Cold War budget cuts in the mid-1990s that led to reduced maritime production and left the once-robust industry fractured and fragile."

More on the pogrom in Amsterdam. The attackers are scum, of course. But where were the police both during and after the soccer match when the organized assaults on Jewish fans took place? Shame.

Putting the Indian in Indian Ocean: "As India eyes the prospect of more Chinese and Pakistani warships and submarines traversing the Indian Ocean, Delhi is boosting its nuclear-powered submarine fleet." 

Killing enemies is good: "US Central Command (CENTCOM) has conducted strikes against nine Iranian-backed militia targets in Syria since CTP-ISW's data cutoff on November 10."

Pre-boot camp training. School and play no longer routinely provide the raw material to turn into soldiers.

IFF fail.

This is unnecessary. Of course soldiers are required to disobey unlawful orders. I was taught that as an enlisted soldier. No, this is bizarre panic. And the president can fire any soldier. If this is going on I think Trump can justifiably say he has a "loss of confidence" in a lot of officers. As have I.

Okay, I link this not for politics but to ask how are we not living in a simulation? "A batty professor named Arlene Battishill came to represent the disappointed female voter demographic ..." Battishill? Batty shill?? At least the designers have a sense of humor, eh? I really wish I wasn't playing on the free version.

A provider--not only a consumer--of Western security: "South Korea is the 10th largest defense manufacturer in the world. That’s up from 13th a few years earlier. In 2024 South Korea was number 8 with a 2.8 percent share of defense exports." South Korea exports to allies.

The wild blue yonder: Ukraine has 20 of 100 F-16s promised. "These jets stay at least 40 kilometers from the Russian border because of the massive number of anti-aircraft missile systems stationed there." Ukraine doesn't have weapons to suppress air defenses. Or stealth planes.

Sure, fan the flames of my worries that the networked F-35 is vulnerable to hacking. 

Which is the bigger clue bat, ongoing Russian aggression or imminent Trump pressure? "A majority of Germans support significant defense spending increases, an outlook that coincides with the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House[.]"

Explain to me again why we had to retreat from Afghanistan because it cost too much: "The U.S. has spent more than $14 billion to rescue and resettle Afghans in the U.S. over the last three years[.]" And $6.5 billion to subsidize the Taliban with "humanitarian" and banking aid! Other costs will come.

I've long thought China can't assume North Korea is a firm ally. I think that while China benefited from North Korea developing nukes that worry Japan, South Korea, and America, China should worry about actual North Korean nukes as much as the others. 

I heard a Times podcast guest call Russian soldiers "battle hardened." I think it is more like "battle shattered." I remember analysts calling the Iraqi army in 1990 "battle hardened" because of the long Iran-Iraq War. It was no such thing then and no such thing now for Russia.

Hopefully this is just Europhiles picking up on a European Union wet dream: "a Trump administration is likely to pull back and largely leave Europe to Europeans." We must resist "European" strategic autonomy. Euros want that regardless of the American president. 

Don't over-hype the Russia-China partnership: "Russia will not long tolerate its increasingly [vassal]-like status to China." Yes, they are frenemies with temporary benefits. But Germany and Japan weren't tight, integrated allies in World War II. So what exists isn't insignificant if China tolerates this relationship.

Navy support ships need to be armed for self defense. And perhaps supplement their defense with modularized auxiliary cruisers through higher threat areas. And such ships would be good escorts for equally slow cargo ships, no?

Sh*t got real: "The US Army will begin producing locally manufactured Trinitrotoluene (TNT), often regarded as the world’s most powerful non-nuclear explosive, for use in bombs, hand grenades, and 155 mm artillery shells after nearly 4 decades [of only importing it]."

Subliminal war: "China is stepping up pressure on the Philippines to concede its sovereign rights in the South China Sea, Manila's Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on Tuesday after meeting his Australian counterpart in Canberra."

The Philippines fights lawfare with lawfare: "Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. enacted on Friday two laws bolstering his nation’s maritime claims, drawing criticism from Beijing as South China Sea tensions persist."

The war on terror is not over: " On Nov. 4, CENTCOM announced that U.S. and partner forces in Iraq and Syria had conducted 95 missions against ISIS in the past 60 days, which led to 163 suspected terrorists being killed and another 33 captured." Will we really repeat the mistake of Obama's 2011 withdrawal?

Never mind? "The Qatari Foreign Ministry emphatically denied reports of Hamas’s expulsion from Doha, after U.S. officials said that Qatar demanded the Palestinian terrorist group depart." Tip to Instapundit.

I'm fine with U.S. military support for UN missions, as we've long done. But never put American troops on the ground in blue helmets between warring parties. Troops from other countries can be target practice if their governments decide it is in their interest. Our troops should win. Who else can defend the West?

Germany is effing up on a broad front: "All of these factors are responsible for Germany’s two consecutive years of recession. But even more significantly, its great manufacturing industries – chemical, engineering and automotive – are all in crisis at the same time." Can Britain avoid the same mistakes?

How brave to sail there during peacetime: "A Russian Navy warship equipped with hypersonic missiles has conducted drills in the English Channel, Russian state news agencies reported on Tuesday." That warship would lead a short but exciting life during war. 

To be fair, Iran is our active enemy: "Today, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage and logistics headquarters facility [in Syria]. These strikes were in response to a rocket attack on U.S. personnel at Patrol Base Shaddadi."

Hmmm: "The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a 'warrior board' of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership." I never said all are worthy of dismissal. 

Familiarization is the first step: "The personal relationships soldiers are building in dozens of training exercises each year with partners throughout the Indo-Pacific are the true strength of U.S. Army Pacific[.]" Crawl, walk, run.

Hmmm: "Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has accused Israel of carrying out 'collective genocide' in Gaza, in some of his strongest criticism of the country since the war began last year." Is this a shift against Israel or a sign that war is nearly over, so just a verbal point to cover his base.

Interesting: "The FSB failure in opposing the Ukrainian [Kursk] incursion was caused by FSB preoccupation with investigating internal enemies and those suspected of opposing Vladimir Putin." When you already know what the threat is, contrary information is obviously disinformation.

Iran wages war on America: "The US Navy defeated a complex attack launched by the Houthis on Monday that saw the rebels fire several missiles and drones at two American warships off the coast of Yemen, a Pentagon spokesperson said on Tuesday."

This wasn't enough: "US forces carried out precision airstrikes against multiple Houthi weapons storage facilities in Yemen over the weekend. He said the operation involved F-35 stealth aircraft[.]"

Taiwan's decommissioned Hawk air defense missiles may somehow end up in Ukraine. 

China seized the shoal in 2012: "The Philippines has protested China’s baselines around the disputed Scarborough Shoal, as tensions between the two nations build up anew over their competing claims in the South China Sea." China's subliminal war continues under color of law.

Is the West emerging from its era of self-hatred to more confidently defend itself and its value?

It is true that the kill chain for destroying a carrier can go through the logistics vessels that keep it fighting. A logistics form of a mission kill still takes the carrier out of the fight. 

Interesting: "The MQ-25 Stingray aerial refueler will be joining the new MQ-4C Triton sensor aircraft later in 2025, Vice Adm. George Wikoff, commander of U.S. Navy Central Command and Fifth Fleet[.]"

I believe framing this as a "loyalty review board" is propaganda: "Senior officers in the U.S. military are preparing after reports of a potential new review process for top generals, a review they fear will vet personal loyalty to President-elect Donald Trump." We need leadership focused on fighting and winning.

I hope Trump doesn't issue orders via social media for communications security reasons alone. But if he does, I stand by my position that they are valid orders. A new medium doesn't change that aspect.

The long farewell nears the end: "The U.S. Air Force will start withdrawing its A-10 aircraft from Osan Air Base, South Korea, the Thunderbolt II’s last overseas location, starting in January."

The Air Force's "force design is focused on identifying the best mix of capabilities, systems, technologies, and personnel to achieve all of the Air Force’s five core functions[.]" 

Arming up: "The Latvian Ministry of Defence has selected the Ascod infantry fighting vehicle for the country’s armed forces[.]" ASCOD has many variants, including a "medium main battle tank," however that is defined.

Russia doesn't have control of the Black Sea and doesn't like that. Sure, Russia could use the sea more if it controlled it. But it has other means of conducting those missions. Ukraine is to be commended for sinking so many ships. But I suspect Russia decided no objective is worth further losses.

That's the $64,000 question: "Ukraine has a plan and so does Putin. When the plans collide, who will win?"

Russia's sledgehammer blows in the Donbas and Kursk--plus others?--could overwhelm Ukraine: "If Ukraine doesn’t find the solutions for these challenges, it seems that the war will enter into the dangerous stage of constant retreat of Ukraine." I worry about that. But I don't assume Russia can pay the price.

America's Aegis Ashore air defense system is online in Poland: "The Redzikowo base, 230 kilometers (143 miles) from the Russian border, has been operational since July but was officially inaugurated only on Wednesday." 

The East China Sea gets less attention than the South China Sea, but China has territorial ambitions there, too: "Warships and aircraft from the United States, Japan and South Korea gathered in the East China Sea on Wednesday to kick off their second large-scale exercise of the year." 

Looking North: "American, Canadian and [Finnish] officials committed to the joint development, construction and maintenance of polar icebreakers with the signing of the Icebreaker Collaborative Effort Pact in Washington today."

Israel believes its October strike on Iran reduced Iran's missile production capacity to 10% of pre-strike capacity. How long will that last? Can and will Russia make up for lost explosives production capacity? Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine says it could build nuclear weapons if it has no other means to protect its security from Russia. But it cant' enrich to bomb levels any time soon. Maybe the better issue is whether Ukraine squirreled away some warheads--now inert, no doubt--from their old Soviet arsenal as a needed insurance policy.

From the "Well, duh" files: "Western sanctions and the war in Ukraine have deeply impacted Russia’s economy, as seen in the weakening ruble, increasing reliance on China, and signs of Russia potentially becoming a subordinate economic partner to China rather than an equal." China exploits Russia's need.

There will be a Block 8 Virginia SSN before a new sub: "SSN(X) is billed as a return to a prior generation of attack submarine optimized for blue water missions with a weapons room more in line with the Seawolf-class boats, USNI News previously reported.

Chinese-Russian Arctic cooperation. I don't see what China gains from strengthening Russia there. Sure, in peacetime China potentially gets a sea route to Europe. But that won't last during war. And if China fights Russia, Russian supply lines are better between west and east. Are they really more than frenemies?

Is this true? "The problem with [renting troops] is that Kim is probably not sending personnel from unreliable families to Russia, fearing that they would defect. Kim likely felt he could afford to send soldiers from politically elite families." I think Kim can't risk survivors coming home to "infect" others.

After Ukraine, Russia may need a less defended front to pressure: "The United States and its allies in the Arctic need to increase the number of sensors, patrols and intelligence sharing in the region to contain the expansion of Russian and Chinese forces in the far north, defense leaders said at the meeting this week."

France is wrapping up the training of an entire Ukrainian brigade "armed with France-supplied tanks, artillery canons and other heavy weaponry." Will France sustain the brigade with replacement equipment and trained troops?

What's "Tora! Tora! Tora!" in Chinese characters? "For over a year U.S. Marine Corps F-35B vertical takeoff (VTOL) fighters have operated from one of the two new Japanese aircraft carriers to test their flight decks for heat resistance to the F-35 B's engines." But don't call them aircraft carriers.

Unlike the mythical underground lair of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, Hamas built well: "Years of effort has produced hundreds of kilometers of tunnels. ... When the IDF recently set out to destroy the tunnel system they were shocked at how extensive it was and how resistant it was to attack."

Thunder in their minds: "In late October 2024, Russia conducted its normally annual large strategic nuclear exercise. Russia frequently calls it Grom (Thunder in Russian) although this latest exercise was unnamed." It's supposed to scare us. But it doesn't reflect reality. Precedent suggests Putin is oblivious.

Apparently North Korea has sent some of its long-range 170-mm M1989 “Koksan” self-propelled artillery to Russia.

American special forces are reverting from the War on Terror direct action mission to the prior one of training allied troops. China is a big focus on Taiwan and I assume special forces training involves preparing the Taiwanese for irregular and insurgent fighting should China invade Taiwanese territory.

Sh*t got real: "Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg won a five-year contract from the US Navy worth around US$900 million to supply anti-ship missiles, in what the company says is its biggest missile contract ever."

Appeasement? "Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, needed only three weeks in office to make three big concessions to China. ... The shift is all the more demeaning for Indonesia because it closely followed a series of Chinese coast guard intrusions in late October[.]" He cashed China's check, it seems.

It is important to reduce corruption in Ukraine. It seemed like patriotism muted corruption in the emergency of Russia's 2022 invasion. Is the war so routine that corruption is making a comeback? On the bright side, it was never muted in Russia.

Well that's interesting: "Israel's Oct. 26 retaliatory strike on Iran 'destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility,' according to an Axios report." A warning of future strikes that Iran can't protest because officially it didn't exist.

China says the Philippines resupplied the Sierra Madre outpost ship at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea and rotated the garrison with the permission of the Chinese. Has China established control with only the date of denial of permission to resupply the only question?

Sounds like an easy target in war: "China has achieved a milestone in renewable energy with the connection of its first 1-gigawatt offshore photovoltaic (PV) project to the power grid."

Russia intends to freeze Ukrainian civilians: "NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has called on alliance members and other Western partners to provide more support for Ukraine as cold weather looms."

Good: "Israel's new defence minister, Israel Katz, has confirmed the conscription of thousands of ultra-Orthodox men planned by his predecessor." Relying on others to protect them from being massacred is immoral. And this will end an incentive to falsely claim to be ultra-Orthodox to avoid military service. 

India can calm things down but can't cope while India relies on China economically: "China and India have no desirable 'normal' status quo to return to. Challenges abound in the bilateral relationship, and China’s ambitions continue to circumscribe India’s ability to act at the regional and global levels." 

#YouInvadedUs: "The Ukrainian drone attacks are a form of psychological warfare against Russia and its people. Despite regular Russian pronouncements of victories in Ukraine, the drones keep coming and proving that Ukraine is not defeated and still very visibly fighting."

Good: "Vladimir Putin has ordered MSF or Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders to leave Russia." MSF has served to lessen the problem of Putin stripping medical personnel from the civilian world to cope with high war casualties. 

Plans on paper always work: "The Navy is refining its plan to create an 80 percent combat-ready surge force to meet the deployment goals included CNO Adm. Lisa Franchetti’s new navigation plan, the service’s second-highest officer said." A refined plan will be awesome. Still, it's nice to have a goal.

We win. He loses: "Washington must recognize that it would be negotiating from a significant position of strength. If there is to be any meaningful engagement with Turkey, Washington should be explicit in its expectations." We have an Erdogan problem.

Hypersonic missiles go to sea: "The Navy wants to start testing its Conventional Prompt Strike missile system aboard guided-missile destroyer USS Zumwalt (DG-1000) in 2027 or 2028, the admiral overseeing the effort said Thursday."

Tech. support for Ukraine: "NATO has moved its three decade-old reachback support operations to Poland. Reachback electronically connects troops in a combat zone with a large number of tech experts and other support personnel stationed anywhere else in the world, but generally in the US."

Has Israel developed the first working, mobile air defense laser?

Nobody Ever Said There is No Substitute for Deterrence

Let's stop thinking that the price of defending our freedom can be lowered by building a military capable of denying an enemy a cheap victory rather than by smashing and defeating their military if they attack.

We commemorate Victory in Europe (VE) Day and Victory over Japan (VJ) Day. Enemies should fear those outcomes rather than being on the losing end of the theoretical calculation.

So I heartily endorse this advice for military capabilities:

Getting all of the partners and allies in the region involved in exercises and “demonstrating on a daily basis … that you’re prepared to fight and win a war should you need to is really the ultimate way to deter a war,” [Brig. Gen. Anthony Mastalir, commander of U.S. Space Forces Indo-Pacific] said.

Too often the quest for enough military power to deter an enemy attack focuses simply on making the cost too high for the enemy to bear. Sadly, this relies on accurately predicting how much the enemy is willing to lose to win.

I sure blew that one on Russia--although grant me credit on accurately judging Russia's military prior to the Winter War of 2022.

Deterring an enemy just seems like a quest for a cheap silver bullet weapon to lift the burden of being prepared to fight and win a war as the ultimate deterrence.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

Nuclear Deterrence ... Of Who?

Xi Jinping highlighted an inspection of a rocket forces brigade to highlight readiness. Readiness for what?

Okay:

This focus on the Rocket Force’s deterrence capabilities shows that Xi wants Beijing’s rivals to take China seriously. The key of nuclear weapons is not to launch a surprise attack, but instead to avoid any situation in which they are needed. These arms are all about deterrence, and if you want to deter an opponent they must know you are capable of fighting back, rather than thinking your rockets are filled with water. This is the crux of Xi’s deal with the Rocket Force.

But is that message using China's suddenly expanding nuclear force intended for America? 

But China has not felt much of a need for more nukes to deter America (or India) thus far. Suddenly having a lot more nukes is vitally important to China's rulers. Why?

Maybe China wants to deter someone else that sees nukes as its ultimate territorial defense. Which is more pronounced now that most of Russia's shattered army is fighting Ukraine.

Who is China really trying to deter? America which has no territorial claims on China? Or Russia which currently controls huge tracts of Chinese land taken in the 19th century in the largest land grab of the "Century of Humiliation"? Sure, Chinese nukes would be useful to deter America should China conquer Taiwan, which America considers free terrain notwithstanding China's claim to own it. But that's not quite the same, eh?

Not everything is about us.

And China recently reopened that 19th century issue with a seemingly small offer about gaining access to the Tumen River which leads to the Sea of Japan.

I can only wonder if Russia's closer defense ties with North Korea include a joint refusal to refuse that offer. Can they? 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.