Putin may dream of his own Red Storm Rising at sea. But his fleet is not up to battling for sea control against a serious naval enemy. Perhaps China isn't up to challenging the American and Japanese fleets. But Russia's Pacific Fleet is just waiting for an ass-kicking by someone.
Russia is foolish to allow China any view of Russia's navy:
The Russian and Chinese navies signed a memorandum of understanding and cooperation on April 21 amid recent reports of China’s increased support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Putin should not believe his own BS about his naval prowess:
The Russian navy can detect any enemy and launch an "unpreventable strike" if needed, President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday, weeks after a UK warship angered Moscow by passing the Crimea peninsula.
"We are capable of detecting any underwater, above-water, airborne enemy and, if required, carry out an unpreventable strike against it," Putin said speaking at a navy day parade in St Petersburg.
Putin thought his army was pretty hot stuff, too, back in 2022.
Oops.
I think China will certainly learn to understand Russia's navy during that new, glorious cooperation. Which should not be something Russia wants no matter how much Putin concocts futile plans to restore Soviet naval glory.
Which could be a problem for Russia one day:
Could China hit Russia's fleet and air bases in the Far East and combine that with a quick, overwhelming hit on some Russian border post that provides the image of land dominance, too? ...
If the Chinese could actually inflict a quick defeat on Russia, ended the fighting before it could escalate, could they use the leverage of that victory to get the Russians to make a small adjustment on the common border that would at least set the precedent for more later (to undo that 1858 unequal treaty)? Or what if there was no territory change, but the Chinese get the Russians to concede Chinese economic interests in the Far East as a step back to establishing claims to the land much the way Russia eased their way into the territory?
As I concluded in that old post:
When we think of China's rising power, we naturally think of how it might be directed at us. But from China's point of view, there are safer targets than America. So if we think about whether China might use their growing military power, don't fixate on America and our allies.
Putin should not assume he is special in Xi's eyes.
America may be China's pacing threat. But that just makes lesser targets easier to take on.
China suggested, and Russia accepted, that long-standing Chinese claims on a quarter of the Russian Far East and most of its prime coastal areas be considered as a form of payment.
Huh. I haven't seen that news.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
