We have another entry in the Accepting-defeat-really-increases-American-security genre. As is common these days, underbussing Ukraine is the target of nuanced thinking.
American military aid is finally flowing again and is beginning to reach Ukrainians doing the fighting. It can't arrive quickly enough as Russia tries to stretch Ukrainian defenders:
Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and have so far only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area.
Russian attacks there exploit the inability--due to Western restrictions, other than Britain--of Ukraine to strike targets inside Russia. I'm guessing that restriction will erode more as this offensive continues.
I've long wondered why that section of the front has been quiet. Russia doesn't yet have the troops to make this a major effort. The small initial attacks seem to be growing. It could be the opening moves to shape the battlefield before even more troops arrive. Or it's just to divert Ukrainian forces from other parts of the front.
Meanwhile, Westerners debate what do do in ways that seem bizarre to me. America needs to let Russia defeat Ukraine--to increase America's national security?
A wise course for Biden would be to leverage the package by quietly pushing for a ceasefire in the Ukraine war through back-channel diplomacy. The alternative is to sap America’s strength by continuing to invest heavily in a failing war, thereby creating more strategic space for China to overthrow U.S. global preeminence.
The idea that it is counter-productive to defeat Russia's invasion of Ukraine is astoundingly bizarre. Arming Ukraine to defeat Russia achieves much that is useful to fight China.
One, Russia is kept farther east where fewer American troops are needed to bolster European NATO states, making them available for Asia. Many hundreds of thousands of American troops were in Europe and in the waters around Europe during the Cold War.
Two, Russia weakens every day and perhaps loses its appetite for more wars--especially to help China--for a generation or more. That puts big limits on the Russia-China partnership "without limits", eh? Again, it makes it easier to send assets to Asia.
Three, arming Ukraine repairs the thin American defense industry base (and that of our allies) and makes it more likely that the West can go toe-to-toe with China should China decide to launch a war.
Five, if Russia pulls out of its contractual vassal status, Europe could use even more of its revived military power--including arms sales or aid to Asian states--to oppose China.
The urge to make excuses for Russian aggression frustrates me. If you think our response to Russian aggression is mistaken or should take a different form, make the case. But don't beclown yourself by arguing that Russia isn't doing something wrong and dangerous.
And seeing that someone somehow believes a Russian defeat in Ukraine is counter-productive to American interests astonishes me. Every step west Russia marches increases the amount of force America needs to commit to Europe to prevent Europe from being dominated by a hostile power. Don't forget what we needed to keep Western Europe friendly--a longstanding objective of America--when the Red Army was on the Elbe River inside Germany.
Nobody in China is going to get more worried about the West if we let Russia defeat Ukraine.
Serenity now!
UPDATE (Tuesday): Some time ago it made sense to me that Russia would keep their long border in the northern arc quiet. Ukraine would have to guard that front; while Russia could keep minimal forces there because Ukraine could hardly invade.
At the same time it puzzled me that Russia wouldn't try to exploit its population superiority by extending the front north. Russia's failure to do that indicated that Russia's population superiority wasn't making it to the war front.
As Russia massed troops in that region and now attacks toward Kharkiv, it looks like Russia is managing to build up manpower superiority despite its heavy losses.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
