LOL: "French President Emmanuel Macron is ready to "open the debate" about the
role of nuclear weapons in a common European defence, he said in an
interview published Saturday." Macron will give the EU control of French nukes only after Macron rules the EU.
Singing to the TDR choir with this observation about US force structure demands: "policymakers and strategic military leaders are often caught between deployability, which requires small, light forces and forces sufficiently robust to handle all the challenges of land warfare."
Russia at war: "Recent Russian attacks on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv are seeking to make the city uninhabitable. This is accomplished by eliminating electricity supplies, water supply and sanitation systems along with reliable food supplies." Russia will call that a victory.
Fort Apache, the South China Sea: "In the most hotly contested waterway in the world, the risk of Asia’s next war hinges increasingly on a ramshackle ship past her time, pockmarked with holes, streaked with rust and beached on a reef." You remember Sierra Madre, right?
Friends in need: "The defense chiefs of Australia, Japan, the Philippines and the United States will meet in Hawaii to discuss the regional security situation and strengthening collaboration, announced Japan Defense Minister Minoru Kihara on Friday."
It costs $100,000 to knock down a drone. We want a cheaper means. Sure, but what's the cost of what wasn't destroyed by a cheap drone? I'm more worried about prompt reload of air defense missiles. And why not inflict that cost ratio on the enemy with our own drones versus their expensive air defenses?
The U.S. is willing to expand training for Ukrainian troops.
France and Germany will design and build a tank jointly. I'm assuming a 140mm gun with good armor, active defenses, and "strategic" mobility that consists of fitting on a train flatbed car. Unlike America which has to take them overseas, these tanks will practically roll out of their bases and start fighting.
And in the expensive, definitely-not-built-in-a-garage-with-whatever-components-are-handy drone competition, the XQ-67A.
I hope so: "The fact is that the United States has been so far ahead in submarine technology and secure underwater operations over the past 50-plus years that its submarines are virtually undetectable by either China or Russia." Australia is counting on that. But I hate to assume it just because we have been ahead.
Is Haiti's new transitional government a "game changer?" Based on Haiti's long history of being a side hustle for the F**k-Up Fairy, I'm going to say "no."
LOL! "With the EU election just over a month away, von der Leyen’s team wants to transform the image of the European Commission president from a tough crisis-manager-in-chief to a more personal and warm mother and grandmother who wants her family to grow up in a safe Europe." Tough? In EU world, maybe.
Yeah, given my past focus on the USSR it was clear as soon as the Soviet empire collapsed that American support for Israel had fewer reasons to be intense. After destroying Hamas, it gets trickier for Israel.
In 2013, Israel changed strategy "and shifted priorities away from the ground forces in favor of air force and cyber capabilities, intelligence, special operations forces, and stand-off precision fire." Israel now needs more ground forces for the future. I thought their victory-through-airpower strategy was flawed.
Never mind the Israeli military, can Gazans survive their addled overseas allies? The Western Left wants regime change in Israel--but not in Gaza. Tip to Instapundit.
Taking nostalgia too far: "The suspected members of the Reich Citizens movement, known in German as
Reichsbürger, a group that rejects the legitimacy of the modern German
state, are accused of membership of a terrorist organization and 'preparation of a treasonous undertaking.'" They aren't helping my case.
Huh: "The US has acquired 81 obsolete Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan, a report from the Kyiv Post says." For spare parts for Ukraine? To be modified as long-range suicide drones? Ground decoys? Never mind? Maybe. But why not? Ukraine might be Kazakhstan's first line of defense.
Sounds prudent: "Ukraine's air force said it is preparing for the arrival of F-16s by building underground stores and bunkers at its bases." F-16s are good but hardly a wonder weapon. I wonder if Russia will divert scarce missiles from attacking energy and water facilities to focus on the F-16s?
Hamas wants a cut of the humanitarian aid: "Hamas political official Khalil al-Hayya told the AP that the group would consider Israeli forces — or forces from any other country — stationed by the [American-built] pier to guard it as 'an occupying force and aggression,' and that the militant group would resist it."
Collective sea defense: "NATO is currently conducting two major naval activities – Dynamic Mongoose 24 in the North Atlantic and Neptune Strike 24-1, which involves four large-deck strike groups and spans both the Mediterranean Sea and Adriatic Sea as well as parts of the Baltic Sea."
The Army wants to replace its 70 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) planes: "For the first time, the Army is using a large-cabin business jet — the
Bombardier Global 6500 — to serve as the airframe for the spy plane." We no longer need to use large passenger jet airframes to fit the equipment in.
Meanwhile in the South China Sea: "China’s coast guard fired water cannons that damaged a Philippine [fisheries agency] vessel on Tuesday, marking the latest flare-up of violence between the two countries in the disputed South China Sea, Philippine authorities said."
Meanwhile in the waters off Yemen: "Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed the attack on the [merchant ship] Cyclades and targeting the U.S. warships in a statement early Tuesday." Italy also shot down a Houthi drone.
America's logistics weakness in the Pacific isn't mentioned much. In my Military Review article on options for the Army across the Asia-Pacific region, I noted our logistics were too focused on northeast Asia and would need to be expanded to carry out any of the options. But I had no practical suggestions.
Helping friends guard their coasts: "Helping island nations, like Vanuatu, protect their resources and enforce their laws is 'a sweet spot' for the Coast Guard’s operations in the Pacific, Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan said Monday."
American special forces learn from the Ukrainians they train. I hope some of the lessons are on how to operate against the Russians behind Russian lines.
Has Turkey passed Peak Erdogan?
When the Israel-Iran quasi-war lost the prefix.
Huh. But the activists told me Israel already had Gaza under siege on October 6, 2023: "Food and other humanitarian aid supplies to Gaza have improved in April, but there is still far from enough to reverse the trend towards famine, said the head of the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees." Apparently not.
I hope our enemies' defense industries are worse: "Metal shavings in contaminated fuel, incorrectly assembled parts, and a plastic scraper protruding from a wing fold were among the faults discovered in five new F-35C Joint Strike Fighters delivered to a U.S. Marine Corps fighter squadron [in 2023.]"
India seeks lessons of the Winter War of 2022. That's nice, but India has failed to deal with what in 2011 I thought was India's most important defense decision of the decade. There doesn't seem to be a sense of urgency. How long will it take India to act on whatever lessons it draws from this current war?
Is Chechnya's ruler dying? "If Kadyrov goes, the monster he has nurtured is unchained. A fight for the succession will be destabilising. Whoever comes out on top will want to strike a new bargain with the Kremlin — and one that will be bitterly resisted by other elements of Russia’s power structures."
Lukashenko has set up a body, the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly, that appears to be an effort to maintain his rule--even after his death. My question is whether this is pro- or anti-Putin? That is, does this strengthen the Anschluss or is it a means to slow it down or even escape it?
Putin beats his chest and flings nuclear poo: "To make this work, Putin has to convince other countries that he is prepared for nuclear war. In the process, he will also have to convince his countrymen, which only further undermines the strategy." Will subordinates shoot Putin if they think he's suicidal with nukes?
From blue skies: "Plans to replace F-16s with F-35s are in danger of being rendered obsolete because the fighting in Ukraine demonstrated that the air war has moved to lower altitudes and is being fought with UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) costing less, often much less than $15,000 each." To brown skies.
Is China preparing to devalue their currency to jumpstart exports? Would we raise tariffs to protect industries here or in friendly nations? Or would we accept the help to tamp down inflation a bit with some lower-cost goods?
The charge it was a "conspiracy theory" to say it leaked from a bio-research lab is crumbling: "Four years after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Chinese city of Wuhan, what do we know about the origin of the SARSCOV2 virus?" Science! And racism! And shut up! China lied. And still lies.
The United Kingdom seems to have put Peak Independent Scotland in the rear view mirror. Good. It seems more like an EU revenge operation, anyway. Well, and a strategy to strip away the prefix from the proto-imperial project.
New Office of Naval Intelligence recognition and intelligence guide poster for the PLAN. And another for China's coast guard.
Yes, a Palestinian identity exists now regardless of when or how it was created and a "two-state solution" will not bring peace. Also, the Palestinian assault on the German "ambassador" to the West Bank shows that we should expect violence--not gratitude--at our "humanitarian" Gaza pier when it begins operating.
Monsters dressed like Santa: "Today is May Day. Since 2007, I have advocated using this date as an international Victims of Communism Day. I outlined the rationale for this proposal (which was not my original idea) in my very first post on the subject[.]" Tip to Instapundit.
I guess winning a five-decade insurgency in Colombia opens options for hypocrisy: "Colombian President Gustavo Petro said on Wednesday he plans to sever diplomatic ties with Israel over the Middle Eastern country’s conduct in its war against Hamas in Gaza." FYI, Petro was in the leftist M-19 guerrilla group.
Trump again said NATO states that don't spend enough on defense are on their own. I find it humorous that journalists ignore the potential cause-and-effect linkage of Europeans resolving to "Trump-proof" European security by [checks notes] increasing defense spending in case Trump abandons NATO.
Is an East Asia NATO forming? Could be--for a subset that can agree that the focus of their defense efforts should be the South China Sea. But not every ally or friend can make that the primary battlefield. And how does that work when Taiwan--the central objective on that front--isn't part of it?
The Georgian people haven't forgotten that 2008 Goons of August War and are opposing the pro-Russian drift of their government. FFS. Even if Russia wins the Ukraine War, Putin may decide that finishing the conquest of Georgia would be an easier next step than finishing the conquest of Ukraine.
The V-22 may be a maintenance and flying chore, but when it works it is very useful: "The V-22 program office is studying the future of the tiltrotor aircraft, weighing both a technology refresh as well as whether it could rip off the wings and nacelles to add decades of additional life to the airframes."
The gas isn't itself usually lethal. But forcing you out of your trench is: "The United States on Wednesday accused Russia of violating the international chemical weapons ban by deploying the choking agent chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops and using riot control agents 'as a method of warfare' in Ukraine."
Welcome to NATO: "More than a thousand U.S. soldiers are making a long-distance trek this week in upper Norway, bound for a Finnish artillery range for drills showcasing stepped-up efforts to defend NATO’s new Arctic border with Russia." Finland is a hard target.
No! Way! "The Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan is regenerating strength
through aggressive recruitment and by taking advantage of instability in
the country, a Pentagon watchdog agency report said Thursday." Get ready for Jihad 2.0.
Smart Diplomacy®: "Iran’s nuclear weapons program benefited greatly from more than $40 billion provided by the U.S. government since Hamas attacked Israel in October 2023." A nuke--that Iran can build--might penetrate. Is Iran exploiting Gazans? Will Biden finally have regrets for loving the mullahs?
Having fun yet? "When Iran finally announces it has nuclear weapons, the Saudis can do so too in just a few months." The Saudis financed Pakistan's "Islamic bomb" and expect a product if requested. And the Saudis have old Chinese DF-3 ballistic missiles--if they still work--and some newer DF-21s, as of 2018.
The Philippines is advertising China's bullying tactics in the South China Sea, as a Telegraph reporter recounts: "I was standing on the deck of a Philippine coast guard ship when a Chinese vessel opened fire with its water cannon." Video included in link.
As the war the Hamas rape-and-slaughter invasion on October 7, 2023 began reaches May 2024 with some Hamas battalions still intact in the south, let's examine the false compassion of slowly invading a populated area. Would deaths be lower with a fast invasion? Avoiding disease, illness, and hunger?
Ukraine's summer 2023 counteroffensive: "the West trained and equipped nine brigades for the offensive.
Ukraine would field several additional brigades from the armed forces
and national guard, organised under two corps, and a reserve task force." At 6 brigades per corps, that makes sense. I expected three corps.
Wait. What? "Militants launched mortars at Israeli forces in Gaza as they prepared for the arrival of a floating U.S. Army pier[.]" That's news from April 25th. How did I miss that in my news feeds?
Low-rate production has begun: "NMESIS is a mobile, ground-based, anti-ship weapon system deployed by a small team within the littoral environment intended to support land-to-sea attacks for the US Marine Corps (USMC)[.]" Good. As I wrote, when you start to sink ships, sink ships. Much was lost to do that.
Defense: "A pair of launchers from the Okinawa-based Bravo Battery, 1st Battalion, 1st Air Defense Artillery Regiment pointed skyward Thursday from a field at Clark’s Air Force City[.]" It's a former American air base from the Cold War. The deployment is for an exercise.
Norway steps up: "Norway would be able to reach NATO’s goal of military spending of 2% of each member country’s GDP this year."
Forward defense: "Australia aims to double the size of its naval fleet with its largest shipbuilding investment since World War II[.]" But obstacles must be overcome.
That's a bad trend: "The U.S. military has long held a key advantage over China's: it can hit mobile targets at extremely long distances. But that 'monopoly is over,' the Space Force’s intel chief said Thursday."
A national defense asset: "The admiral leading the Coast Guard told a congressional budget panel Wednesday that the service is ready for a larger role in national defense but will need the funds to do the job." We need all the hulls out there swinging.
I don't think peacetime deployments in any way prove "their combat-worthiness": "Changes made to the Marine Corps structure, equipment and approach to deployments are giving the service new ways to react to crises across the globe."
Armenia is conceding defeat in its long post-Soviet series of wars with Azerbaijan. Unless Armenia wants to be seduced by anger to replicate the history of the Palestinians by claiming to be Queen of the Victim Prom to make their situation much, much worse.
Losses: "Russia has lost at least ten percent of its combat aircraft since they invaded Ukraine in early 2022. Since the 2022 invasion Russia has lost 347 combat aircraft and 325 helicopters. Ukrainian losses have been similar, with 346 combat aircraft and 270 helicopters lost [.]" F-16 impact is overstated, IMO.
Huh: "Serbia was enthusiastically pro-Russian until Russia invaded Ukraine. After that the Serbian government and most of the Serbs backed Ukraine with only a minority supporting Russia." I'd read Serbia was not shifting. This says Serbia is--but would like to repair ties after the war.
More drones: "Army getting extra funding from multiple sources to accelerate LASSO kamikaze drone program[.]"
Well, hello: "The U.S. Marine Corps is transforming an unspecified U.S. Air Force missile into a weapon that will give its AH-1Z Viper attack helicopters the ability to strike moving targets on land and at sea 150 nautical miles away."
Israel is retiring their Patriot missiles as locally-made systems fill the role. The article says it is unlikely Israel would sell Patriot to Ukraine to avoid annoying Russia too much and ending cooperation in Syria. But hasn't that ship sailed with close Russia-Iran defense ties? And is an indirect path to Ukraine okay?
Western ammunition and missile production is inadequate to sustain just Ukraine's needs. We still can't pass the logistics test Russia has provided in Ukraine.
I'm always hesitant to call even the most odious leftist agitators and thugs "foreign agents." Freedom of speech demands tolerance to avoid undermining everyone's freedoms. "Hate" speech isn't an exception to freedom of speech. More speech is the answer. But criminal actions should certainly be punished.
Of course, on October 6, 2023, he saw no indication of the Hamas rape and slaughter invasion of Israel the next day: "U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Thursday he did not see any indication Hamas was planning any attack on U.S. troops in Gaza[.]"
Ukraine's sea drones--surface and underwater. Sure, they seem like cheap, revolutionary weapons. But they rely on off-loading to NATO the expensive ISR assets and systems operating over the Black Sea to get the USVs and UUVs to their targets.
Biden wants a US-Saudi security pact but needs Israel to move now toward a Palestinian state. I noted the pact and was relieved Biden got the message--sent to Obama, too--when the Saudis flirted with China. Sadly, Biden wants to re-crown the Palestinians as Queen of the Victim Prom first. Trust takes time.
Arab governments know Iran and not Israel is their biggest threat.
Iran's military power bluff and simulation of democracy. For all the talk from the Left that the West tries to "impose" Western democracy on countries where it is alien, all those countries certainly pretend to be democracies rather than proudly proclaiming some "indigenous" autocratic system of government.
I heard Israel will create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon before the new school year starts. This would be the Limited War option in this post. It creates a "no-launch" zone--as I called it when I speculated about South Korea options--to stop Hezbollah short-range rocket and tube artillery attacks on Israel.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine failed to follow Russia's own manual for operations. That's why I over-estimated what Russia could achieve with an actual invasion--rather than the attempted victory parade. Notwithstanding my appreciation Russia's military was over-rated, I did not dismiss it.
Is Israel hurt much? "The Biden administration last week put a hold on a shipment of U.S.-made ammunition to Israel, two Israeli officials told Axios." Without veering into politics, the precedent was set that such things done for domestic political advantage are verboten. I can't read minds. Tip to Instapundit.
When will Russians punish Putin for provoking NATO rearmament? "Denmark will raise its defense spending by an additional $5.1 billion over the next four years in order to speed up investments in military capabilities, as the government has warned that Russia is readying for a long-term war."
Hmmm: "Russian forces appear to be choosing to exploit the area where Russian forces are most likely to make tactical gains in the near future[.]" Reminds me of German 1918 Western Front offensives. They made impressive territorial gains but had no strategic focus. And despite the scare, culminated and failed.
Of course NATO is preparing! You keep threatening NATO! "NATO's four-month long military exercises near Russia's borders, known as Steadfast Defender, are proof the alliance is preparing for a potential conflict with Russia, a spokeswoman for Russia's Foreign Ministry said on Saturday." Chimps with nukes.
We may be on the eve of Israel advancing into Rafah: "The latest round of Gaza cease-fire talks ended in Cairo after 'in-depth and serious discussions,' the Hamas militant group said Sunday, reiterating key demands that Israel again rejected."
I've avoided political--or even just interesting non-security--news and issues this week. It's difficult. And some issues span the firewall. Which makes this tougher than expected. A work in progress.
