A Maginot Line in the Strait

Asymmetric means do not mean defense-in-depth is obsolete. Don't count on sinking a Chinese invasion fleet in the Taiwan Strait.

Can Taiwan and its allies really meet this objective to stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan?

“[The Taiwanese and their allies] need anti-ship cruise missiles, sea mines, mobile artillery, mobile air defenses, unmanned aerial vehicles… It comes down to sinking about 300 Chinese ships in about 48 hours”.

That's a lot to sink. As I observed in this post:

Anybody who says Ukraine's success against Russia's Black Sea Fleet should cause China to worry about what Taiwan could do ignores that Ukraine has inflicted this damage over 25 months. Taiwan would need to inflict multiples of that damage in 25 hours.

And that's aside from whether airborne and air mobile forces are the key part of the invasion spearhead. 

As I wrote here about what a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look like:

I go on further in my invasion scenario that holds up pretty well, I think, given it is 18 years old.

I think special forces, direct-action spies, infiltrated light forces, airborne and airliftable forces, limited amphibious operations, and a lot of assaults on Taiwan's ports with PLA Army troops carried by Chinese Coast Guard and civilian vessels would be the means of getting ashore. 

The Chinese objective would be Taipei, going for the jugular with both airborne and air mobile forces and the smaller amphibious force:

China's marine forces would have smaller but important direct and supporting roles.

One thing I still hold is that China does not plan an invasion over Taiwan's limited beaches. If China planned D-Day 2.0, China would have built up its marine force and amphibious lift to do that. Taiwan is the most core of China's core interests. If those forces were needed, China would have far more by now. 

Taiwan needs to do more than build a Maginot Line in the Taiwan Strait that if pierced ends Taiwanese resistance:

Taiwan's defense problems are far greater than they were when the Taiwan Strait was an insurmountable barrier to Chinese invasion. But Taiwan still needs to defeat the Chinese in battle to retain their independence. There is no cheap asymmetrical way to defeat China. Taiwan must raise the costs of invasion at every part of the combat spectrum, from invasion to resistance, to deter China.

I worry Taiwanese morale could collapse with a misplaced emphasis on winning at sea. It's a grave error to go bargain hunting in defense of your freedom.

Mind you, sinking 300 Chinese ships in 48 hours would be very useful. Maybe even decisive, depending on what happens ashore. I just wouldn't count on it winning the war no matter how many ships are sunk and troops are killed. Always check the Definitions Section for "victory," eh? 

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.