Two more good jihadi leaders: "Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi
and the country’s foreign minister were found dead Monday hours after
their helicopter crashed in fog, leaving the Islamic Republic without
two key leaders as extraordinary tensions grip the wider Middle East." Don't rule out killer tomato attack.
Interesting: "The Navy is on track to homeport four Independence-class littoral combat ships in Bahrain next year as part of a new mine countermeasures force in the Middle East, service officials said."
China builds its first super carrier and American carriers prepare to meet them. I worry that the Chinese carriers are bait.
Why the panic over Kharkiv? And yeah, predictions of Ukraine's doom assume current trends accelerate. But Russia pays a price. That's a problem of analysis: You see your side's problems much more clearly than you see the enemy's. Still, trends must be reversed or Russia keeps its conquests. Via Instapundit.
As Ukraine expands its drone and sabotage attacks into Russia, I have to admit that my fear that strikes inside Russia would rally Russians to Putin's side was wrong. Of course, a portion may have rallied. But there is no obvious upsurge in determination to pay any price to defeat Ukraine.
Attention is needed. Alone this doesn't repel China: "After more than four years of negotiation, economic-assistance funding has been approved under the Compacts of Association, the agreements that govern U.S. relations with Marshall Islands, Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia." Kudos to Biden.
It's certainly another flashpoint: "If war breaks out in the Indo-Pacific, it will not be over Taiwan but over the atolls and shoals dotting the South China Sea. [The Philippines ambassador to Washington called] these sovereignty disputes, particularly between China and the Philippines, the region’s “real flashpoint.”
Smart Diplomacy®: "The United States expresses its official condolences for the death
of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian,
and other members of their delegation in a helicopter crash in northwest
Iran." He's a thug. But Democrats loove mullah-run Iran. They're confused.
Optics? "The Biden administration was close to transferring 11 detainees out of the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to a country in the Middle East in October 2023, but abruptly halted the move amid concerns about political optics after Hamas’ attack on Israel[.]" They should age and die there.
Drawing a line in the sea: "The U.S. Army is exporting its Joint Pacific Multinational Combat Training Center to the Philippines as the Southeast Asia country seeks to enhance and modernize its defense strategy."
Good to show we care: "Washington could sign off on a sweeping package of economic and security support for Georgia if its government abandons its increasingly anti-Western rhetoric and stops backsliding on human rights." I hope this isn't just a drive-by to pretend we care.
Progressing--but with hiccups: "The Czech-led initiative to fund and procure urgently artillery ammo for Ukraine is progressing steadily – the first 180,000 shells have been contracted and should arrive by June[.]"
The West was surprised that Russia speedily rebuilt its army. I was not. That's why since fall 2022 I desperately wanted a counteroffensive before Russia could recover. Russia bounced back from their 1939 debacle invading Finland and could do it again, I feared. The rebuilt army isn't good. But it's an army.
Kadyrov is bargaining with Putin to send more Chechen fighters to fight Ukraine.
The strangely vulnerable Finnish Aland Islands: "The self-governing archipelago stretching across the middle of the Baltic Sea officially belongs to Finland, its residents speak Swedish, and Russia is tasked with enforcing an accord that has banned any military presence on its shores for over a century."
Interesting: "Egypt is now building a 13.5 kilometer wall from the Mediterranean inland to the Israeli border town of Kerem Shalom to keep the Palestinian refugees fleeing the Hamas-Israel violence in Gaza."
France built a jet-powered anti-tank suicide drone: "Veloce 330 is expensive for a UAV, costing over $200,000 each." Speed and jamming defenses increase the costs, I imagine. And other drone stuff plus a digression--because they can--into firing rifles.
It would be nice if Iranians decided Allah gave them a good start on overthrowing the mullahs: "Funeral ceremonies have begun in Iran for president Ebrahim Raisi, foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and other victims of Sundays helicopter crash." But Iran could get away with shooting and hanging Iranians.
No! Way! "[From the U.S.-built pier] on Saturday, only five truckloads made it to the warehouse after 11 others were cleaned out by Palestinians during the journey through an area that a U.N. official said has been hard to access with humanitarian aid."
It's mainly for testing: "The Navy on Friday took another step toward creating a surface fleet seamlessly integrated with uncrewed vessels by formally establishing its second unmanned surface drone unit."
The Army will upgrade and overhaul its M270 armored, tracked MRLS vehicles for future rockets.
I weirdly get a bunch of hits from Hong Kong lately. I assume this is a VPN disguising the point of origin. But I really don't know what is going on.
I wish more government officials would vow to stay in their lanes as I did. Sure reinforces my determination to keep doing this. Tip to Instapundit.
Welcome mat: "Top Finnish defense officials are moving closer to finalizing proposals aimed at filling the country’s NATO membership with life. One key consideration, which may require amendments to Finland’s constitution, relates to the hosting of alliance forces on Finnish soil."
It's perfectly appropriate to mourn a murdering, anti-American thug. Ah, Smart Diplomacy.® Tip to Instapundit.
FFS, this is for a supply emergency--is it really? Tip to Instapundit.
China struggles to keep their Burma vassal.
That seems dark [LINK FIXED]: "U.S. military forces training and deploying from their bases and
stations for a future conflict or crisis will likely face a growing
variety of threats close to home." Should I worry about more than what I do?
Jihadis seem so nice: "Hundreds of hostages, mostly children and women, who were held captive for months or years by Boko Haram extremists in northeastern Nigeria have been rescued from a forest enclave and handed over to authorities, the army said."
As night follows day, and as flying spittle follows rage, Putin waves about his nuclear missiles. Yawn.
Huh: "Norway, Ireland and Spain said Wednesday they would recognize a Palestinian state, a historic but largely symbolic move[.]" How did Hamas earn that? The October 7, 2023 murder, rape, and kidnapping invasion? Or Israel's decision to fight so such a mass atrocity can't happen again? The rewards escalate.
The harassment is probably more valuable than the damage: "The 'Code 9.2' drone unit, from the 92nd assault brigade, are moving into a new launch position from where they are about to conduct a rare and potent mission: flying drones into Russia and dropping mines onto key roads inside enemy territory."
This seems like a hyper-velocity shot in their own foot: "Russian physicist Anatoly Maslov was convicted of treason and sentenced to 14 years in a penal colony on Tuesday in the latest of several cases against experts working on the science underpinning Russia's development of hypersonic missiles." Ah, paranoia.
I'm calling BS on this: "Broadly using 'China' as a threat can strengthen CCP narratives and alienate non-CCP Chinese communities." Everyone knows "China" means the CCP-controlled state. Let's not descend into paralyzed drooling idiocy.
Useful for static positions--if it it works: "After receiving four high-power microwave prototypes designed to stop drone swarms, the US Army is preparing to send them on to the Middle East to see how they perform[.]"
The China-Pakistan axis. I don't think that Pakistan is enough to enable a Chinese wartime presence in the Indian Ocean. But China has A2/AD options there. At least America isn't paying to sustain Pakistan. Good luck to China on that.
I've been informed by strategists that this means Russia forfeits its right to independence: "A deputy chief of the Russian military general staff has been arrested on charges of large-scale bribery, Russian news reports said Thursday, the latest in a series of bribery arrests of high-ranking military officials."
True love: "Whistleblowers’ emails reveal John Kerry blocked the FBI and DOJ from arresting Iranian terrorists and agents on U.S. soil in order to protect his Iran deal." Because of course he did. Tip to Instapundit.
Fear of what we would do to Iran would be better protection: "American army engineers in the Middle East are building reinforced above-ground bunkers to protect soldiers from the impact of larger and more powerful ballistic missiles being used against them." But ...
But they're such polite budding fascists. Tip to Instapundit.
F**k the ICC: "Hamas' use of so-called human shields -- that is, human hostages positioned between Hamas terrorist murderers and Israeli weapons -- is a crime." Israel is fighting as clean as it can--under the rules of war. Hamas fights dirty. Spent shell casings and dead Palestinians are just the detritus of their war.
Hamas rapists and murderers thanks their supporters in the West. Tip to Instapundit.
I'd rather have a U.S.-Saudi security deal--but details are important--than focus on preventing Israel from entering Rafah to finish off Hamas battalions able to function in Gaza. While the author isn't interested in the Middle East, the Middle East is very interested in us. Also, U.S. ships and planes oppose China, too.
This author says Israel is defeating Hamas. I disagree with the author's dismissal of COIN in Iraq and Afghanistan, but it's true you can't win the hearts and minds of an enemy that hates you. Israel wants to smash and contain Hamas within Gaza so October 7, 2023 can't happen again. That's the "day after" plan.
But could China sustain a blockade? "China on Thursday encircled Taiwan with naval vessels and military aircraft in war games aimed at punishing the self-ruled island after its new president vowed to defend democracy."
Loafers on the ground in New Caledonia: "Arriving in Nouméa after a 24-hour flight from Paris, President Macron said he wanted the return of peace, calm and security 'as quickly as possible'."
Sweden should definitely hold Gotland: "Russian President Vladimir Putin is targeting a strategic Swedish island that offers mastery over the Baltic Sea, the commander-in-chief of Sweden's army warned this week." But Russia is doomed there, surrounded by NATO states all around the sea.
A provider and not just a consumer of security: "Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Wednesday announced that his country would give Ukraine a further €6.5 billion ($7 billion) in military aid spread over three years to ward off Russia's invasion."
Some Israeli ministers want a "day after" plan for Gaza. Don't get distracted from the need to crush Hamas on the battlefield. Israel needs a rebuilt hate-free Gaza with a coexisting counter-example. Could a virtual Pal-E-stine state be part of a plan?
This example of a "prominent role" is a particularly bad idea: "The Biden administration is considering appointing a U.S. official to serve as the top civilian adviser to a mostly Palestinian force when the Israel-Hamas conflict ends[.]" The advisor will be a shield to protect Hamas. Even if it doesn't start that way.
So a LCS, a dry cargo ship, and a Dutch frigate walk into a sea: "A pair of U.S. Navy ships took advantage of a rare chance to train alongside a Dutch vessel this week in the South China Sea, according to U.S. 7th Fleet."
A disturbing lack of a sense of urgency: "The first batch of Ukrainian pilots have graduated from U.S. F-16 training, a National Guard official told Air & Space Forces Magazine on May 23." This is taking way too long.
Sure, Assad wants to reduce Iran's influence in Syria after Iran helped Assad slaughter his opposition. And Russia would like to shiv its Iran rival. But now Russia needs Iran's weapons to invade Ukraine. So Assad looks to America. But the monster Assad only wants to leverage our aid. And Biden won't harm Iran.
China is used to bullying Manila: "The Philippines will continue to build security alliances and stage joint combat drills in disputed waters to defend its territorial interests, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said Friday, dismissing China’s criticisms of such moves as paranoia."
We now know Kenya's price for sending troops to pacify Haiti is: "President Biden on Thursday announced his intent to designate Kenya as a major non-NATO U.S. ally, the first such designation for a sub-Saharan African country."
How the "our" democracy form of elections works: "In May Iran held national elections and hardline pro-Islam candidates
obtained 233 of the 290 parliament seats. The candidates for election
must be approved by the government, which is dominated by conservative
religious leaders." I object to "conservative".
Robot pilots: "What is novel about ROBOPilot is not that it can replace a human pilot, but that the ROBOPilot equipment is flexible enough to be quickly installed in any manned aircraft. ROBOPilot software has to have an electronic profile of each aircraft it can be installed in and has to be tested [.]"
Hearing the International Court of Justice complain that Gazans are being "displaced" from Rafah is a complaint against Israel evacuating civilians from a looming combat zone to protect them. Huh.
Stay away: "Taiwan scrambled jets and put missile, naval and land units on alert Thursday over Chinese military exercises being conducted around the self-governing island democracy where a new president took office this week."
On Memorial Day, I will repeat that rules of war are really more about protecting our soldiers from what they must do in war: "'It ain’t the dying that’s scary, boy, it’s the killing.' [And] when they come home from war, they must learn to live again as a civilian." Although Veterans Day is for remembering that.
Marines are getting an upgraded LAW disposable rocket launcher that can be fired from inside buildings or bunkers. Also, the trigger is no longer on top where firing can disrupt aiming.
The new high ground: "The National Reconnaissance Office said it launched the first satellites in its proliferated constellation, which will provide rapid data collection and delivery across multiple orbits."
Decline: "The U.N. forecasts China's population, now the world's third largest [Huh?] after India, will shrink from 1.4 billion to 1.31 billion by 2050. Yi argues that the prediction is too optimistic[.]" He sees one billion in 2050--if its fertility rate doesn't drop below 0.8. The decline has been evident for some time.
I'd like to believe it's that easy: "Two of the world's most important chip companies can flip a 'kill switch' remotely on their most advanced chipmaking machines should China invade Taiwan, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter." The chips made will work, of course. Via Instapundit.
Huh: "Russian border guards have removed navigation buoys from the Estonian side of a river separating the two countries, the Baltic nation said on Thursday, adding that it would seek an explanation as well as a return of the equipment." My "Kargil scenario" for Narva post was timely.
New Caledonia unrest: "Macron’s supreme arrogance is now tearing apart the French empire[.]" Macron took his eye off the ball of keeping his remnant of empire together to pursue his real imperial objective.
The U.S. announced another batch of assistance to Ukraine, apparently mostly ammunition. Plus some protective gear for chemical weapons, which is good because Russia has been routinely using banned tear gas grenades on Ukrainian troops.
What he said: "It is one thing to say that protecting America’s borders is of equal or greater importance than protecting Ukraine’s. It makes no sense to argue, however, that if money is not allocated to protect America’s borders, Ukraine’s should be left molested." We must help Ukraine defeat Russia in Ukraine.
Does this mean Xi and Putin think only nukes can stop them? "General Secretary Xi Jinping and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin issued an odd one-sentence communique: 'There can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought.'" Or Xi laid down the law to his vassal who had to agree.
Our special forces have a new recon/strike drone. With this ability: "Beak is equipped with anti-jamming technology and will return to its launch site if the jamming overwhelms the GPS navigation system." Why can't the enemy jam the drone, watch it return to the launch site, and drop rounds on the location?
As American military aid resumes, the Kremlin spreads rumors that Putin wants to negotiate. But he won't give up his conquests. All he wants talks to do is slow Western aid to Ukraine and buy time to repair his ground forces.
We are not going to "transition" from fossil fuels to "Green": "The world will need all forms of energy production imaginable. An 'energy transition' would only restrict energy supplies—and that’s not going to happen." Middle East energy exports remain crucial, even if America buys nothing. Via Instapundit.
Ukraine is installing anti-suicide "cope cages" plus explosive reactive armor panels on its Abrams tanks. Good. Tanks die. They do.
Russia is running out of armored vehicles: "Recently, the Ukrainian army has recorded an increase in the number of assault operations by enemy units on motorcycles, buggies and golf carts or unarmored Ural trucks encased in anti-drone cages." And "turtle tanks." Ukraine can beat Putin's Potemkin-ish army.
The B-21 is extremely stealthy. I assume the fleet size means they will be used in the Pacific for long-range conventional strikes against PLA ships and ground targets, and not just nuclear roles. But stealthy isn't invisible. How long before air defenses use AI-equipped optical sensors to find and track them?
Japan is joining a significant biennial American exercise: "About 4,000 Japanese troops, eight vessels and 60 aircraft will join Valiant Shield from June 7 to 18, the Japanese spokesman said."
Ukraine plans to cut 2/3 of bloated senior staff officers: "'With the released personnel, it is planned to replenish units at the operational and tactical levels, as well as military combat units,' said Brig Gen Yevhen Ostryansky, head of Ukrainian military defence planning." Lower ranks will be empowered, too.
Communism is as evil as Nazism (tip to Instapundit). I don't know how much of the evil has been infused in Russian society after many generations of Marxist poison. Or maybe there is a reason Russian society embraced it. Either way, I don't want Russia any farther west than it is now. And I worry about that.
Does this mean that Russia considers the former Wagner fighters included in the force are loyal enough--or better off dead on the battlefield? "Russia has deployed Africa Corps units to aid its offensive in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, UK Intel says."
"Unrest" is almost always bad for tourism: "France has begun evacuating tourists from its overseas territory of New Caledonia after days of unrest in the Pacific archipelago."
Thankfully we have allies: "Currently the actual Chinese defense budget is $700 billion a year, nearly as much as the United States spends. China claims it is spending less but does so by ignoring spending that the Americans include and the Chinese are now matching what the United States spends."
Remember that when America left South Vietnam, the "peace" treaty allowed North Vietnam to keep their troops in place inside South Vietnam. North Vietnam reloaded and from those positions, invaded South Vietnam and conquered it in 1975. Don't pressure Ukraine to do that, too.
Hmmm: "Himars rocket launchers supplied to Ukraine by the US have been left “completely ineffective” because of Russian electronic jamming systems." And other GPS-guided ammunition, too. No doubt there is at least some truth to this report. Is this over-stating the effects to mislead Russia?
In more news for those emerging from a decade-long coma: "An exiled Iranian resistance group has uncovered damning evidence
showing top regime officials' direct involvement in supporting the
Houthis in their attacks against ships in the Red Sea." File this away in the "Well, Duh" folder.
