I continue to add updates to my most recent post on the Hamas War. I am no longer confident it is the last one. The Biden administration seems determined to save Hamas.
If you read only one source, I recommend Strategypage. Consider subscribing to them to keep them going.
In an earlier post I noted a TDI inclusion of Western military aid to Ukraine as part of Ukraine's military spending, which puts Ukraine in a position to compete with Russia. But this still understates the value of the aid. It leaves out the military research and development costs to produce those weapons.
This drone supply aircraft doesn't have the capacity to sustain anti-ship operations at Marine outposts in the western Pacific. At best the Marines won't starve until captured by the Chinese.
Practice: "Early Sunday, 76 members of the Hawaii-based 25th Infantry gathered with
about a dozen Australian soldiers on Calayan, an isle in the Luzon
Strait separating the Philippines’ main island from Taiwan [to practice air assaults on islands]." Makes perfect.
Critics say seizing Russian assets is a bad precedent, hurting trade: "[There are talks in the West to] give as much as $50 billion in aid to Ukraine, with the massive outlay being repaid with the windfall profits from sovereign Russian assets that have been frozen[.]" Letting invasion succeed is better precedent?
We're still far from the day when AI can replace pilots. But we're getting closer. I've long thought that AI-assisted humans would be superior to pure AI. But pilots can't survive the maneuvers that fighters can endure structurally. If maneuver matters, of course.
When you absolutely, positively have to kill everyone in the next room.
Oh? "'Full-blown famine' is present in the northern part of Gaza and is spreading south, said Cindy McCain, the executive director of the World Food Programme." But I'm informed that Israel has blockaded and starved Gaza for many years. Or is McCain's claim proof the past claim was propaganda?
Bullying: "A Chinese fighter jet endangered those aboard an Australian military helicopter during an 'unsafe' and 'unacceptable' confrontation over the Yellow Sea last week, Australia said on Monday."
Whatever else you might say about me and my writing, I put my money where my mouth is.
Okay: "Military Sealift Command christened its newest ship, the Expeditionary Sea Base USNS Robert E. Simanek (ESB-7), on Saturday in San Diego." These were fine for peacetime operations in benign threat environments. I'm not sure what good they are for war against peer militaries.
The need for speed--and range: "US Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) are pursuing a new Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM) variant with the intention of “extending range beyond the existing” AGM-158C-1 missile." We could make it dangerous for PLAN warships to leave their home ports.
FFS. Could Russia scrape up the military or paramilitary troops and FSB types to intervene in support of the Moscow-friendly government in Georgia--of all places?
While mullah-run Iran's "death to Israel" focus is real, it is also brand maintenance to obscure aggression against everyone near them: "Azerbaijan and Pakistan are two lesser known victims of Iranian proxy attacks."
As the world crowns Palestinian terrorists the Queen of the Victim Prom, in the darkness of Xi Jinping's Xinjiang province China's Uighurs are unavailable for comment. to be fair, the Uighurs don't have a cool scarf. But they do make fashionable footwear! The sainted international community is fickle.
A 7th Infantry Division soldier was shot at a Special Forces exercise when live ammo was mistakenly mixed with blanks. I know sh*t happens. But I sure hope this isn't a sign of lax standards.
The Air Force assumes it has time to prepare for potential war with China. The Navy thinks it has to be ready now. I don't pay attention to the 2027 "window" for war. I doubt even China knows. Oh, and nobody pays attention to what the Army can do except for fielding anti-ship and air defense weapons.
Putin's Russia continues to beat its chest and fling nuclear poo: "Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian General Staff to prepare to conduct non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons exercises to 'practice the preparation and use' of tactical nuclear weapons." Is this really directed at China?
Given that any Russian ships based there would live a short but exciting life in a war, pursuing this shows Russia understands it is too weak to fight: "Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in pursuit of a Red Sea naval base for Russia[.]" Or delusional.
As the war in Gaza rages on with Hamas unwilling to surrender and spare civilians the cost of being in a war zone, remember that the war didn't merely start because some people did something on October 7, 2023 inside Israel. Tip to Instapundit.
Via Instapundit, ideological blinders at the Naval War College. It scares the Hell out of me that Navy leadership is needed now more than ever. Because woke lips sink ships. We have a lot of work to do.
As Russia advances (though at a high cost in Russian lives and materiel), Ukraine seeks advantage away from the battlefields: "Ukraine has been carrying out long range attacks into Russia against economic targets. It uses locally built UAVs [against] Russian petroleum and natural gas supply sites."
DALL-E 2 didn't renew my free credits. Apparently I wasn't a user early enough to keep getting that. So far I'm mining my collection of created images for my needs. I guess I need to try Bing to use DALL-E 3.
Israel chose the option of going easy on Iran after Iran's failed mass missile attack directly on Israel. If Israel is planning to hit Hezbollah next, Israel's demonstration of potential power may deter Iran--for a while.
Bradley Fighting Vehicles will get active protection systems. The slowness of putting APS on our armored vehicles is just horrifying.
That sergeant is a moron--even if lured there: "Staff Sgt. Gordon D. Black was in the process of transitioning from a unit in South Korea to Fort Cavazos ... NBC News first reported on Monday that Black had been detained over the weekend after being accused of stealing from a woman." A likely trap.
Vulnerability: "The United States is approaching a crossroads on homeland missile defense. As a result of rapid progress by nuclear-armed adversaries, missile threats capable of holding American cities hostage will soon outpace U.S. planned missile defense programs and capabilities." It isn't just the ICBM threat.
I wonder if this attempt is about 26 months too late: "Ukraine’s state security service said it foiled a Russian plot to kill President Volodymyr Zelensky and other top officials." Too many Ukrainians are dead for many of the living to think highly of Russia now.
Belarus could use a color revolution: "Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk called Tuesday for a special meeting of the secret services to discuss alleged Russian and Belarusian infiltration after a Polish judge who had access to sensitive state information defected to Belarus." Losing Belarus dulls Russia's threat.
Georgia's government works to move away from the West and toward Russia; while protesters object.
From the "Well, Duh" files: The 2024 Paris Summer Olympics will be a target for Islamist terrorists.
Egypt is outraged that Israel took over the Rafah crossing to Egypt to isolate Hamas prior to clearing the city. Why is Egypt outraged? Egypt hasn't let any Gazans into Egypt so far to escape the fighting.
China has graduated to a super carrier. I see them as more useful for peacetime power projection missions. Along with their marines on new large deck amphibious warfare ships hardly needed to invade Taiwan. I'd almost feel sorry for China if they see their carriers as key to fighting America.
Ukraine's USV fleet is apparently adding an air defense capability.
This essay on China exploiting the Hamas War notes that Iran has sent its targeting ship south of the equator to enable the Houthi to shoot at ships farther from the Red Sea and Horn of Africa. Explain to me again why the U.S. Navy doesn't sink that Iranian ship.
Oh FFS, Kirby: "Spokesman for the White House National Security Council, John Kirby was just asked if the United States supports Israel’s Intention to Eliminate Hamas, which he Responded, 'You’re not going to Eliminate an Ideology through Military Operations.'" The insanity won't die. Tip to Instapundit.
We spend too much time worrying about a Saudi atomic bomb and not enough stopping mullah-run Iran from going nuclear. Not that I am eager to see the Saudis get nukes. Turkey and Egypt will be the next stops after Saudi Arabia on that proliferation train. But stop Iran and we can stop the Saudi-led parade.
Depth: "Finland’s decision to store some military equipment in Norway, and later in Sweden, has been long in the making, but gained urgency after Russia’s long-range demonstrations in Ukraine and was sped up further still by the Nordic nation’s recent entry into NATO, according to Finnish officials."
Russia's man in the Balkans? "Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to European ally Serbia on Tuesday falls on a symbolic date: the 25th anniversary of the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade during NATO’s air war over Kosovo." I recall a rumor the CIA tricked the Air Force into bombing the embassy.
Lost in space: "An experimental spy satellite that was deemed 'lost' after eluding detection for decades has finally been found." Space is big--even just in the Earth-Moon system.
But does it work to get recruits?
Delay in putting the thing within reach of Hamas attacks: "The U.S. military has finished construction of a temporary pier and causeway that will be used to deliver aid to Gaza through a maritime system, but plans to move it into place on the shore are on hold due to weather and other logistics."
Sign of weakness or the usual? "Putin’s reaction [to opposition to invading Ukraine or war with NATO] is to remain defiant, no matter how many Russians will die. Arresting, prosecuting and jailing Russians who openly oppose Putin is a sign of weakness, not strength for Putin and his war effort in Ukraine."
Global reach: "Chinese spies and espionage efforts are becoming known in Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa and south, southeast, and east Asia. An increasing number of arrests have taken place and subsequently been publicized."
Sealift is a weak link in power projection: "A legislative proposal presented by the U.S. Navy could pave the way for the acquisition of foreign, used vessels to enhance sealift capabilities, offering a cost-effective solution to bolster readiness, according to the Inside Defense."
GAO: "Diana Maurer told the Senate panel Wednesday her office put shipyard conditions second only to F-35 Lightning II sustainment costs as the most worrisome readiness issues facing the services." Our ten-year rule still hurts us.
Huh: "In a little-publicized trial, U.S. Special Operations Command dispatched an AC-130J Ghostrider gunship for a sinking exercise targeting small fishing vessels." That's no fishing vessel. But it seems a bit much.
Special forces still have missions to defeat Islamist terrorists. But great power competition means special forces have to revive old missions from the Cold War era. Infiltrating behind enemy lines--or staying behind as enemies advance--is the capability I most often think about.
Yes: "Public confidence in the military has slipped. One major reason is the politicization of senior military officers, who show an increasing propensity to compromise their integrity to gain influence and achieve both budgetary and policy goals." I've lost trust and want a decimation to send a message.
Interesting: "Germany is gearing up to send Ukraine a prototype artillery shell that can travel up to 62 miles, German newspaper Handelsblatt reported." Rocket assisted, I assume.
Russia launched a big missile strike the night of May 7-8: "This is the fifth large scale Russian missile and drone strike targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since March 22, 2024, as the Russian military has attempted to exploit degraded Ukrainian air defense capabilities ... to collapse Ukraine's energy grid[.]"
Getting more nuclear-powered attack subs to the Pacific with AUKUS.
Make Russia pay: "European Union nations reached a tentative breakthrough deal to provide Ukraine with billions in additional funds for arms and ammunitions coming from the profits raised from frozen Russian central bank assets held in the bloc."
Defending international waters contrary to Chinese territorial claims: "Destroyer USS Halsey (DDG-97) performed a Taiwan Strait transit on Wednesday, U.S. 7th Fleet announced."
Readiness: "The Philippine Navy sank a decommissioned tanker in the South China Sea with an anti-ship cruise missile during Balikatan 2024’s climactic maritime strike exercise on Wednesday morning." Preparing to make China escalate to war to take the Philippines' territory.
Good: "DARPA’s RACER (Robotic Autonomy in Complex Environments with Resiliency) program successfully tested autonomous movement on a larger new vehicle using the RACER technology for efficiently moving a vehicle over terrain without the need for a human driver." Supplies and casualties?
Facing the big boys: "U.S. Army Special Forces have reintroduced Stinger anti-aircraft missile training for their operators." And more anti-tank missiles. Operating behind enemy lines in a conventional war requires such weapons.
Ignoring our financial crisis and housing bubble debacles: "Two major cities in China have eliminated all remaining curbs on home-buying, in yet another sign that local governments are trying to revive the beleaguered real estate sector and spur growth in the world’s second-largest economy." Ah, governments.
As long as the reason is strategic and not political: "President Biden will use crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve should the need arise, energy adviser Amos Hochstein has said, noting there was enough oil in the reserve."
More on China's aircraft carrier development. And sortie comparisons with Western carriers. Just keep in mind the difference between power projection and sea control missions.
The Army is testing a modular turret-mounted 120mm mortar.
Counting on the Biden administration to disarm Hezbollah to prevent Israel from attacking is wishful thinking: "Israel is on the brink of having to fight Iranian-backed terrorists on a second front, in Lebanon." Based on what Biden does to help Hamas survive, Israel will be the side pressured to stop a new war.
Will the pro-Russia rulers win? "Tens of thousands of Georgians took to the streets protesting what has been dubbed the 'Russian law,' resulting in clashes between the protesters and the police and leaving dozens injured, hospitalized, and arrested." Are the Goons of August forgotten? Is Ukraine now forgotten?
Huh: "East Asia will experience perhaps the modern world’s most dramatic demographic shift. All of the region’s main states—China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—are about to enter into an era of depopulation, in which they will age dramatically and lose millions of people." Via Instapundit.
Is anybody really surprised that the Biden administration is trying to save Iran's little pet psycho, Hamas? By lengthening the war by demanding Israel fight more gently--somehow--Biden is displaying false compassion. We say we support Israel but try to shield Hamas. Ah, Smart Diplomacy® in action.
Axis of Weasels: "The United States is strengthening counterterrorism and defense cooperation with littoral West African countries as it plans its withdrawal from Niger. Russian forces have already begun backfilling US forces as US forces plan to withdraw[.]" Time for The AFRICOM Queen?
Would Iran really engineer an "October surprise" to tank Biden's reelection when Biden loooves mullah-run Iran? The mistake in analysis is that America and our allies have the power to smash Iranian interdiction assets--if we choose to do so. The chance to do that might be a pleasant surprise for Biden.
Singing to the TDR choir: "there is little evidence that a Russian occupation of Ukraine is bound to fail." Russia pacified Ukraine's little-remembered 1950s insurgency after World War II. Collaborators will police Ukrainians and Russia will be ruthless. So defeat Russia's invasion. But ignore his Iraq lesson.
I heard that training Ukrainian troops outside of Ukraine is a problem because of the time to move trainees to and from training facilities. Hogwash. America is a big country and transports trainees to and from a small number of training stations from every part of America.
How do we negotiate with this nutball? "Putin's rhetorical efforts to frame Russia as both a victim of Nazi aggression and the leader of its imagined anti-Nazi coalition tread a thin line that Putin likely hopes will appeal to both his ultranationalist constituency and the wider Russian population." Seriously nuts.
We're not gonna take it anymore: "With controlled passion, the chief of the Australian Defense Force today offered a ringing rebuttal of critics of the AUKUS plan to buy and build nuclear powered attack submarines."
A review of "capabilities coalitions" pushing weapons and systems to Ukraine.
Holding up military aid to Israel for arguably domestic political purposes raises a question: Is hurting Israel the price for Moslem-American votes? Polls show most students reject the loud pro-Hamas campus demonstrators. How many Moslems came here to escape regional hate? Tip to Instapundit.
The deadly dance of measures and counter-measures continues: "American Department of Defense officials admit that many of the GPS guided weapons supplied to Ukraine are not functioning correctly because of Russian GPS disruption efforts." NATO is sending weapons resistant to that disruption.
Meanwhile in Nigeria, jihadis persist in their efforts to kill.
China is trying to accurately portray enemy military actions: "The PLAN confronted this challenge by building a corps of experts dedicated to studying China’s potential enemies to play them in wargames with as much fidelity as possible." But how much can Blue Team officers deviate from party orthodoxy?
Maybe: "U.S. Army units could someday align every level of their indirect weapons—from mortars to missiles—with some form of unmanned aerial system, or UAS, the 101st Airborne Division commander said." Except when weather--or the enemy-- grounds the drones.
Well that's effing great, eh? The bad guys want to win their civil war.
How a decade of wargames have judged China's chances to conquer Taiwan. I think the biggest problem in the wargames is a bad definition of what counts as a Chinese victory.
The Biden administration announced an additional $400 million in military aid to Ukraine.
Shockingly, the U.N. General Assembly wants to reward Hamas terrorism. Although to be fair, even full U.N. membership isn't the shield the terrorists might hope, as Ukraine is sadly proving.
He might have heard stuff: "Newly-elected Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani told the moderate-aligned Rouydad 24 outlet that Iran had obtained nuclear weapons but had not and would not announce that it had nuclear weapons. " I worry that an announcement of enrichment capacity means Iran already has nukes.
Is Canada awakening from its defense slumber? Canada's new defense policy update "pledges to bring Canadian defense spending from a paltry 1.3% of
national GDP to a much more respectable – but still short of NATO
requirements – 1.76% by 2029." At least Canada's economy is big by European standards.
As we've watched the far left usual suspects and Islamic "street" in America loudly and aggressively support Hamas and denounce Jews, consider that the dread "Arab street" in the Middle East has remained very quiet despite seven months of war in Gaza.
China's military reorganization is "supposed to make it possible, or at least easier, for supreme leader Xi Jinping to monitor the state of his military forces and make needed adjustments quickly. In the past Xi was unable to do this and systems fell into disrepair and uselessness, not to mention corrupt practices."
The Army has sets of equipment for combat brigades in Europe (2), Japan, South Korea, and afloat in the Indian Ocean. "The army is considering establishing another APS site in Finland or Sweden[.]" We only have to fly the troops in to have a brigade ready for combat. We had a set in Kuwait. Is that gone?
Heard on a Telegraph podcast that Russia may feel free to commit atrocities in Ukraine because it never faced a reckoning for its Soviet past. There's a reason for that. After the Winter War of 2022, only Russians can punish Russians for crimes against humanity from 1917 to today.
The headline and lead sentence says Germany wants an Arctic security role with Canada: "Let us initiate a trilateral strategic maritime partnership with a focus on securing sea lines of communication through the northern Atlantic and Arctic[.]" But it sounds more like securing Atlantic supply lines to America.
Bad timing given our setbacks in the Sahel region: "The expeditionary sea base USS Hershel ‘Woody’ Williams (ESB-4) grounded off the western coast of Africa on Thursday, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa confirmed to USNI News on Friday." I think the ship's capabilities are very useful, of course.
I don't see how Army electric vehicles make logistics easier. An enemy will have even more incentive to destroy the civilian electric grid as Russia is attempting to do in Ukraine now.
U.S. Army general: "'Traditional cannon-based mass fires,' he told the audience, 'are still the best solution in an EW environment.'"
The debate over the A-10 close air support role for ground troops continues, with retirement by 2030 possible. For me the issue is not about the plane itself--it's about trust that the Air Force prioritizes close air support.
Not an American gift: "The German government will buy three HIMARS launchers from U.S. military stocks and give them to Ukraine, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said in Washington." That's a way to reduce our "gift" aid without reducing the weapons reaching Ukraine.
Germany adopts the Morganthau Plan--eighty years later. FFS.
"More money for Ukraine won't fix an aimless strategy[.]" Really? Sometimes just a country's willingness to fight on in adversity until a strategy becomes viable is justification enough for helping them fight a common enemy. I guarantee that failing to help Ukraine will fix flaws in Russia's strategy of conquest.
Attrition: "Since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has lost nearly 700 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters." half are expensive jets and specialty planes. With a long border and few troops to man it, Russia needs an air force to move quickly to an invasion. Maybe soon?
China reaches for space: "China has quietly expanded its presence in orbital
space. Since 2018 China has tripled the number of satellites in orbit." And the moon.
Refraining from political entries in Weekend Data Dump hasn't been too hard. But what is difficult is refraining from rule of law, economic, science, and media bias entries. In theory they aren't political, but the political fissure on them is deep. True, national security falls in there, too. But that's my lane.
