Putin has ordered the creation of a buffer zone inside Ukraine north of the Donbas. The Kharkiv offensive is apparently part of this. Unless this is disinformation to shield building jumping off points for a deeper and larger offensive, this will cause problems for Russian troops who can be targeted with American weapons now.
Is this Russia's objective in the Kharkiv region?
Russia continues to pound Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region in an offensive that has seen the active combat zone grow as Moscow looks to establish what President Vladimir Putin called a "buffer zone."
Ukrainians claim they are handicapped by American rules that don't let them shoot at Russian targets inside Russia with American weapons. And when the front line is the border, that gives Russia sort of a sanctuary:
A Ukrainian commander operating near the Russian border described how his unit watched as Russia amassed a huge force but had to wait for the troops to cross the border to hit them.
Although why Ukraine couldn't use its own weapons without that restriction is unclear to me. They couldn't go deep but they could strike targets inside Russia.
Since the Russian offensive north of Kharkiv grabbed chunks of territory, the Russians have seemingly lowered their effort:
Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces are increasingly contesting the tactical initiative in northern Kharkiv Oblast and characterized Russian operations in the area as defensive, although Russian forces are likely attempting to bring the Northern Grouping of Forces up closer to its reported planned end strength before possibly intensifying offensive operations in the area.Ukraine's efforts are thus far localized counter-attacks. Russia's intentions are unknown as it seemingly builds up and organizes forces inside Russia in the area.
I'm conflicted about this new front. Russia gains more land. And a buffer zone.
But with Russian troops pushing into Ukraine, limits on the use of American weapons becomes moot. The "sanctuary" inside Russia becomes less of a handicap. Indeed, isn't it a free-fire zone?
I concede that a shallow Russian buffer zone still leaves a lot of the more vulnerable support elements inside the Russia semi-sanctuary. But despite the loss of territory, the sanctuary problem is eased.
And if Russia intends to simply hold that line inside Ukraine to defend Russian territory from Ukrainian bombardment rather than use it as a jumping off point to invade deeper, doesn't it just make Russian troops permanent targets?
But of course, a release of American and other Western state limits on using weapons on military targets inside Russia would hurt Russia. And there is apparent movement across NATO to lift restrictions. If that happens, if the big Russian offensive takes place Moscow will find that it doesn't have the deep sanctuary that it may have counted on.
UPDATE (Tuesday): I noted a Ukrainian strike on a Russian space surveillance radar in Crimea. ISW notes this:
Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian long-range early warning radar systems and oil and gas infrastructure within Russia on May 26 and 27.
Combined with Ukraine shooting down a Russian AWACS to brush them back from the plate, is this part of a Ukrainian effort to give their new F-16s some space by degrading Russian ground-based radar coverage?
UPDATE (Tuesday): Easing into ending the sanctuary:
The NATO Parliamentary Assembly called on member states to lift their prohibitions against Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike within Russian territory.
Russia won't like it. But the West doesn't like Russia brutally invading without cause a sovereign state with the right to exist. I say we win the battle of "don't likes."
UPDATE (Wednesday): I heard that the Ukrainian strikes on those missile radars are about enabling Ukrainian ATACMS strikes in Crimea. ... Wait. What? They returned to the topic and an analyst said the elimination of those radars will make it safer for Ukrainian F-16s.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Germany doesn't have nukes but France does:
France and Germany said Tuesday that Ukraine should be allowed to use their weapons against targets inside Russia from which Moscow attacks Ukraine.
In a major new development for the Ukrainian military, Sweden is to provide it with two Saab 340 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft equipped with Erieye radar.
As the article states, this will be a big deal when Ukraine gets F-16s. Operating within the large radar detection footprint of that plane, the F-16 will fight more effectively.
Plus other military gear. Sweden is standing up as a new NATO ally.
UPDATE (Friday): Ukraine struck Russia's Kerch Strait ferry link:
The night attack, carried out with ATACMS missiles, struck the Kerch ferry crossing, which had been a crucial supply line for Russian forces in the region.
The bridge was not attacked.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
