People keep saying Russia wouldn't dare invade NATO. Please define "invade."
On May 7, a Polish newspaper reported Poland's chief intelligence officer Jaroslaw Strozyk believed Putin is preparing "for some kind of mini-operation against one of the Baltic countries, for example, to enter the famous (city of) Narva or land on one of the Swedish islands." Don't write this off as a fevered imagination. Narva's population is almost 90% Russian. Strozyk envisions a Russian "hybrid" attack akin to seizing eastern Ukraine in 2014 -- except Estonia is a NATO nation.
I brought up this threat to Narva, Estonia, back in 2015 (quoting a 2014 post of mine):
Could Russia seek to use their relatively few quality troops on a narrow front rather than try their "little green men" astro-turf revolt tactic again that we will be more attuned to reacting to if applied to Estonia, a member of NATO, with its relatively large (a quarter of the population) ethnic Russian minority?
What if Russia attempts a page out of Pakistan's long territorial struggle against militarily superior India in the 1999 Kargil War?
What if Russia sends in their regular troops--while denying they are their troops--to seize the Estonian ethnic-Russian city of Narva on the northeast border and dares NATO to counter-attack, which would devastate NATO's reputation if we did nothing?
Pakistan used its own "little green men" to capture Indian territory, denying they were Pakistani troops, as described in Wikipedia:
Kargil was targeted partly because the terrain was conducive to the preemptive seizure of several unoccupied military positions. With tactically vital features and well-prepared defensive posts atop the peaks, a defender on the high ground would enjoy advantages akin to that of a fortress. Any attack to dislodge a defender from high ground in mountain warfare requires a far higher ratio of attackers to defenders, and the difficulties would be exacerbated by the high altitude and freezing temperatures.
Kargil is just 173 km (107 mi) from the Pakistani-controlled town of Skardu, which was capable of providing logistical and artillery support to Pakistani combatants. ...There were three major phases to the Kargil War. First, Pakistan infiltrated forces into the Indian-controlled section of Kashmir and occupied strategic locations enabling it to bring NH1 within range of its artillery fire. The next stage consisted of India discovering the infiltration and mobilising forces to respond to it. The final stage involved major battles by Indian and Pakistani forces resulting in India recapturing most of the territories held by Pakistani forces and the subsequent withdrawal of Pakistani forces back across the LOC after international pressure.
It's not Russia's only option. But it is probably the most likely if Putin chooses war. He'll deny invading and based on history, expect NATO to go along with the fiction.
Russia might repeat its Bakhmut performance and send in the conditionally pardoned prisoners in meat waves supported by Russian artillery and tanks without markings or insignia inside Russia.
But the Winter War of 2022 has dramatically changed what NATO is willing to pretend to believe. And dramatically changed the attitudes of ethnic Russians, Russian speakers, or Slavs who are not currently in Putin's grasp.
Are Estonia and NATO ready to resist such a Russian invasion? Or would NATO need to go block by block ejecting the invaders?
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.
