Huh: "German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius used a Thursday speech in Washington to call for both Berlin and Washington to hit 3 percent GDP spending on defense, while also stating his support for reintroducing conscription to the German armed forces." Maybe this sticks.
State Partnership Program: "Finland is the latest country to join the U.S. National Guard’s state partnership program, an initiative that aims to strengthen allied forces by connecting them to American reserve forces for long-term collaboration." Virginia is the state.
The Russians will fan the flames of jihadi terrorism: "The Pentagon this week formally ordered all 1,000 U.S. combat troops to withdraw from Niger, a blow to the Biden administration’s effort to counterterrorism and Russian influence in West Africa."
Mexico is awash in violence (tip to Instapundit). Remember when Mexico thought drug traffic was an American "demand" problem and that they'd just enjoy the American money flowing into Mexico?
Oops: "One side effect of Russian corruption plus sloppy manufacturing is that 21 Russian guided bombs and SAMs landed on the Russian side of the Ukrainian border and caused some damage and an undisclosed number of casualties."
And now for something completely different:
Ukraine would like a lot more because they work well: "Ukraine currently has three Patriot Air Defense Batteries and one more is about to arrive."
I don't believe this claim is true: "Russian troops are furthering their advances, and Moscow now controls more of Ukraine than it has at any point since its Feb. 2022 invasion." Ukraine forced Russia back a great deal from northern Ukraine, across the Dnieper River in Kherson, and in the Donbas in 2022.
Shoigu is out as defense minister. Pity. He seemed to suck. I never do victory dances when Putin replaces poor leadership.
China is attempting to turn another land feature into an island: "Signs of #Chinese land reclamation in Sabina (Escoda) Shoal just 75 nautical miles (140 Km) from Palawan Island, #Philippines " Doing that does not make it an island for legally claiming territorial waters. The Philippines is opposing China.
America kind of supports Ukraine and Israel: "Policy whiplash gives Biden’s positions a Janus-faced quality. He tries to hold opposing positions at once to keep all sides at bay, always speaking with the fervor of someone who can’t understand why no one else understands his logic." It's Smart Diplomacy.®
China has much more capacity to build ships than we have: "Foreign capital and technology are flowing into Chinese dual-use shipyards, which is accelerating Beijing’s ongoing naval buildup." We have shipbuilding allies. But are they a replacement?
Is this too pessimistic (for China)? "China’s slowing growth, real estate crisis, high youth unemployment, and U.S. restrictions on key technologies have led to predictions of a so-called lost decade of stagnation." Tip to Instapundit.
NATO can't exist without America. True. And I want a robust NATO. But ignore the author's Trump bashing and review his actual record which looks darned good after his predecessor. NATO has two threats: Russia, which is obvious. And the European Union, which is oddly overlooked.
Hungary under Orban is no friend of America. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for years because the media cries wolf fascist when anyone right of left-of-center is elected. I have doubts he is really fascist. But I'm sure he's no friend of America.
I read that Russia's attacks into Ukraine on the long-dormant front north of Kharkiv are enabled by the inability of Ukraine to use Western weapons on targets inside Russia itself. If Russia's attacks push inside Ukraine, that solves that restriction, no?
German Eastern Front experience was that depleted infantry with good artillery support could hold their ground. If ammo arrives soon, this is bad but not disastrous: "Ukraine’s brigades are currently operating at just 40 percent of their original capacity, in terms of personnel and vehicles[.]" More troops are coming.
Huh: "The U.S. and Taiwan navies conducted joint drills in the Pacific in April that, officially, did not take place, four people briefed on the matter said, as the two militaries boost cooperation amid rising Chinese military threats."
We should sink the supply vessels: "The United States called on Iran on Monday to halt its transfer of an 'unprecedented' amount of weaponry to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, enabling their fighters to carry out 'reckless attacks' on ships in the Red Sea and elsewhere." But we all know why that's ruled out.
Good luck with that: "Civilian contractors have arrived in Haiti to build living quarters for a Kenyan-led international security force meant to counter gang violence in the Caribbean nation, the U.S. military's Southern Command said."
China wants Taiwan and expects an American blockade in response: "According to Chinese plans, that blockade would last a few years and would then be lifted because so many nations want to end their economic suffering because trade with China was blocked."
But if Ukrainian ground forces don't attack through Kherson into Crimea, this will have been pointless: "Ukraine has been regularly attacking Russian land and naval bases in Crimea and usually destroying them. Ukraine also attacked Russian radars and SAM (Surface to Air Missile) installations."
A proposal for a new stealthy aerial refueling tanker. Some years ago I read that China's plan to defeat our air power was to charge in to overwhelm our fighters to get at the critical tankers and support planes. So Good. I have an additional thought.
A call for America to outpace China as the source of lots of quality small aerial drones.
Marines may get anti-drone capabilities on their service weapon: "[The officer in charge] insisted the ultimate solution would not add to any Marine's duties or take them away from other tasks." How can it not interfere with closing with and destroying the enemy? I want fighter drones in the brown skies.
A 23rd branch? "The Army would gain a drone branch under proposed language in the 2025 defense authorization bill, a move intended to further professionalize the field and put it on par with the service’s other disciplines." The branch would also do counter-drone operations. Fighter drones?
Well, this is the theory for the 2,100-strong Marine Littoral Regiments. I have concerns about the practice. I'd rather have answers to concerns.
Via Instapundit, I think that's right: "One could argue - in spite of some problem areas in the island nations west of Wake - that in aggregate our friendships and alliances in the Western Pacific are stronger now than they were 10 years ago." We have friends. Japan is a recent bright spot. But we still have work to do.
Short version: Let Russia win in Georgia: "[The pro-Russian government remembers the 2008 war with Russia but] also remembered that despite profuse statements of friendship, support and partnership, the U.S. refused to intervene to save Georgia." That's major history re-writing. Why do I bother reading RS?
Alternatives to an Asian NATO for Asia-Pacific security relations. The widely dispersed countries threatened by China lack a common battlefield that NATO had in West Germany.
Can South Korea reverse its birth collapse? Seems like the main three options in the world are robots, immigration, and cloning. Unless societies start valuing larger families again. Interesting that the chart ignores reports that China already peaked.
China might undermine Taiwanese will to remain free with "a PRC coercion campaign that remains far short of invasion but nevertheless brings Taiwan under Beijing’s control." I worry Taiwan's will to remain free could collapse if the PLA gets ashore in strength. So this conjecture isn't a big leap to make.
Russia's Kharkiv front sanctuary.
De-Baathification was necessary for Iraq rather than an error. One thing I forgot to mention was that Shias had reason to be suspicious of American motives after America let Saddam brutally suppress post-Desert Storm Shia uprisings in the south in 1991. We had reason to oppose a pro-Iran uprising. But it left a mark.
Palestinian civilian casualty tally was dramatically reduced. It's still too high given the "children" category goes up to 20 and fighters could be 16. And don't assume women aren't involved. Fighting for a city is a decision to destroy it. Hamas chose to fight for urbanized Gaza--behind civilians. Israel is fighting clean.
I'm so old I remember when America decided it didn't want to help allies in Afghanistan keep the Taliban out of power. Now, Taliban-run Afghanistan is a host for terrorists. And since we retreated from Afghanistan we've given over $17 billion dollars to Afghanistan and for refugee support. We're that stupid.
Putin demoted a close ally and powerful siloviki, Nikolai Patrushev, "the individual personally responsible for the assassination of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin[.]" Sure. Powerful, willing to murder, and able to murder? Useful to Putin. But not too close. Best to mow that tall grass down to size, eh?
As Russia gears up for a long war, NATO signals it will match that effort: "Blinken stated during a speech in Kyiv that more than 32 NATO states are negotiating 10-year bilateral security commitments with Ukraine, including nine states with completed agreements." Will Ukrainians and Russians fight that long?
China-occupied Scarborough Shoal: "China has sent dozens of coast guard and maritime militia vessels toward a disputed atoll in the South China Sea, a large show of force aimed at blocking a civilian protest flotilla from the Philippines, as tensions between the countries have flared."
Making new Purple Heart medals as the World War II stock runs out.
FFS, hardened aircraft shelters should be Aircraft Protection 101. The most advanced plane in the air is just a shrapnel magnet on the ground.
To be clear, the protection for aid to Gazans is from Hamas threats: "two [Navy] ships will join the thousands of Israeli Defense Forces soldiers
-- plus Israeli navy ships and Israeli air force planes -- that are
dedicated to protecting the effort to move food and supplies into Gaza[.]" Hamas will not be not grateful.
Reactive armor and active protection would be a good start: "As the US Army prepares to field its new
light tank next year, the M10 Booker, it is gearing up for a testing
series that will help determine just what modifications may be needed[.]" Because, burn, baby burn. APS isn't a silver bullet, however.
The drones got a good head start: "Ukrainian and Russian forces are scrambling to field countermeasures for protecting tanks against one-way attack drones, which experts say are a growing challenge even for vehicles traveling at speed."
Hungary's Orban doesn't act like an authoritarian ruler. I still don't like his dalliance with Putin.
How did a pro-Russian government get elected there? "Crucially, this anti-Western trajectory of the government cuts directly
against the will of the Georgian people. They overwhelmingly lean
towards Europe, with polling suggesting that over 80 per cent want Georgia to join the EU." Can Russia intervene?
Yeah, a Taiwanese president resisting Chinese intent to conquer Taiwan is not the problem here. FFS.
Their own worst enemy: "[Putin's] long-serving and intensely loyal foreign minister Sergei Lavrov earlier this week challenged what Russia calls the 'collective West', declaring Moscow's troops are ready to meet NATO on the battlefield." Even Europe (!) is rearming in response. Effing chimps with effing nukes.
A "great game" against China should not include losing two games in the Middle East and Europe. We have in fact greatly reduced military power in Europe and the Middle East to focus on China! FFS. You want a great game against China? Here it is.
Only a B-2 can drop it: "An Army ammunition plant in southeast Oklahoma is being expanded to at least triple monthly production of the US’s biggest non-nuclear bomb, a weapon often invoked in debates about a potential attack on deeply buried nuclear facilities in Iran or North Korea." And the future B-21, right?
Good Lord: "Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico was being treated for 'life-threatening' injuries after being shot in what the nation’s Interior Ministry described as an assassination attempt." He's pro-Russia. But this is not a good means of settling political questions. The apparent shooter was arrested.
Countering jihadis in AFRICOM: "Flintlock 24, which began Monday and runs through May 24, features nearly 30 countries and approximately 1,300 personnel. For the second year in a row, Ghana and Ivory Coast are hosting."
Nobody wants to be Pearl Harbored: "The United States and Japan signed a cooperative agreement Wednesday to co-develop a hypersonic missile defense capability designed to neutralize hypersonic threats in the glide phase of flight[.]"
Cuba cooperated just enough for us to pretend they're okay: "In a policy step to ease pressure on Cuba, the Biden administration removed the communist island from the roster of countries "not cooperating fully" with anti-terrorist efforts, a list the U.S. State Department issues every year." Bust out the "Che" shirts!
Strategic warfare: "[Ukrainian] attacks were carried out at night by low flying non-metallic UAVs that, because of their altitude and non-metallic composition, were difficult for Russian air surveillance radars to detect."
Hamas made a post-war plan after occupying Israel: "The plan included details on which Israelis would be killed, expelled, or forced to remain because they were educated Jews and experts in the areas of medicine, engineering, technology, and civilian and military industry."
France upped its efforts to quell unrest in New Caledonia.
China has apparently built a small drone carrier. To carry small suicide drones close to Taiwan?
This author says it would be a geopolitical coup for Russia to get China to agree to an energy pipeline from Russia to China. I suspect that such a pipeline would put weak Russia in more danger of Chinese dominance. America reacted to reliance on Middle East energy with CENTCOM. Putin plays with fire.
The half-year gap in aid is taking longer to bridge than I thought: "US officials have expressed confidence that the arrival of US security assistance to Ukrainian forces at scale by July 2024 will likely allow Ukrainian forces to reverse many of the tactical gains that Russian forces have achieved in recent weeks."
How the proto-imperial European Union compelled Poland to take another step away from sovereign state and toward imperial province. All part of the EU plan to strip away that pesky prefix. Because smaller states are just the easier first targets.
Russia has a history of failing to effectively reform its military. This may be true and too difficult to overcome given Russia's institutional flaws. But Russia can still have a military good enough for Russian government work.
Oh good Lord: "in the middle of the largest land war since World War II and a substantial conflict in the Middle East, the United States is running low on modern gunpowder." And Russia is getting plenty of nitrocellulose for gunpowder from China.
Marine small-unit exercise in the Philippines. The South China Sea is a place where a few will do.
Guns and butter: "Putin stated that even as Russian defense spending grows, the Russian state must fulfill all its social obligations to Russian citizens and develop Russian social spheres, such as education, healthcare, support for veterans, and pensions." America tried that in the Vietnam War and got stagflation.
Corruption? Or disloyalty to Putin? "Russian sources speculated that the May 13 detention of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov is only the beginning of a wider effort to root out corruption within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)."
Israel is the result of post-World War II anti-colonial trends. Tip to Instapundit.
Huh. India test-fired a 3D-printed engine. Tip to Instapundit.
I’ve speculated about a potential Ukrainian offensive across the Dnieper River. A lot of conditions would have to be met. But I’ve seen no signs of this option. I must conclude my speculation is unlikely.
No weapons were reported in this attempt--which included an illegal immigrant on the terror watch list--to drive a truck into the Marines' Quantico base. Was it a dry run to test security in action?
Who says the LCS has low lethality? "A northern Michigan marine dock is suing the defense contractor Lockheed Martin, alleging that a 388-foot combat ship caused more than $2.5 million in damages to the facility’s seawall, dock and the surrounding lakebed."
Troops issued a laser air defense Stryker aren't impressed with it. The field is different than a static industry site.
Still not up to large-scale combat operations: "The U.S. Army and its allies and partners in the theater are finding more ways to come together and build relationships, Flynn said, some of which have endured since the end of World War II." Crawl, walk, run (in Military Review).
This is reassuring? "The Russian military lacks enough troops for a major breakthrough in Ukraine despite recent battlefield gains, the top U.S. military commander in Europe said this week." I'd feel better if the military hadn't said the Afghan government could last two years and that Kiev would fall in a few days.
Russia has "ramped up deployment of electronic warfare systems, which, to the
surprise of NATO leaders, was absent at the outset of the fighting[.]" I know I mentioned that early war lack of what I thought was a strong part of their military.
Headlines about nukes in space mask the dramatic decline of Russia's space capabilities: "Russia is way behind and not likely to catch up to the west, or even China, any time soon."
Interesting: "Armed UAVs cause more casualties in Ukraine than mortar, artillery, or missile attacks." That's not an "and" but still impressive since the last thing I read is that artillery kills a clear majority. Is this an artificial result of the artillery shell shortage?
Biden is eager for Israel to have a "day after" plan for Gaza. Let's not get distracted by a post-war that assumes victory before Hamas is crushed on the battlefield. Israel needs a rebuilt hate-free Gaza with a coexisting counter-example. Could America's objective be achieved with a virtual Pal-E-stine state?
The Army is looking for a new cannon: "The U.S. is planning on a competition between various mobile artillery systems this summer to select a new self-propelled howitzer." Wheeled systems are not ruled out.
Russia's offensive around Kharkiv has "jolted" Europeans? Why? It was a secondary front with lower quality defenders. Defending on the border was difficult given limits on using Western weapons on Russian territory. I expected Ukraine to trade a bit of terrain for time. Why is this a jolt?
This view of what happens if Russia defeats Ukraine over-states Ukraine's ability to fight an insurgency and under-estimates Russia's ability to crush resistance with mercenaries, collaborators, brutality, and population transfers. "Dormant" NATO? How much more dormant can the U.S. get in NATO?
Russian women are protesting the war that sends their men to die. Huh. It's easier to see war weariness in Ukraine. That doesn't mean Russians are eagerly marching to their deaths for Putin.
Good: "The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Saturday that it killed an Islamic jihad commander, who is said to have been the logistics head in Rafah for the pro-Iranian militia allied with the Palestinian Islamist Hamas group." I usually use "Hamas" as an umbrella term for all the jihadis in Gaza.
This seems prudent: "Donald Tusk said work on the Shield-East project which includes building proper military fortifications has already begun."
Good luck: "Trucks carrying badly needed aid for the Gaza Strip rolled across a newly built U.S. pier and into the besieged enclave for the first time Friday[.]" Hamas will not be not grateful. More specifically, probably one of the smaller satellite jihadi groups will get the job of striking.
Huh: "French security forces worked Sunday to retake control of the highway to the international airport in violence-scorched New Caledonia, shuttered because of deadly unrest wracking the French Pacific archipelago where indigenous people have long sought independence from France."
That's impressive DOD spin on Niger's flip to Russia and ejection of our troops: "The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Niger does not affect the continuation of U.S.-Niger development relations. The United States and Niger are committed to ongoing diplomatic dialogue to define the future of their bilateral relations."
Probably an accident: "Rescuers are trying to locate the helicopter on which President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian were traveling, state media reported. Their status is unknown." But in tense times, accidents, solar storm blackouts, and meteor impacts can appear hostile.
