Weekend Data Dump

May your New Year be a good one. Change what you can. Accept what you must. And reevaluate those categories continuously. Life is good. And I don't define America as the politicians and bureaucrats who sit in Washington, D.C.

Ukraine stretches their Neptune anti-ship missile already converted to be able to attack land targets: "Long Neptune has enough range to hit targets throughout Crimea." Can these be part of a Ukrainian Doolittle Raid?

China joins the big boys in carrier technology: "Satellite photos have shown the latest Chinese aircraft carrier, the 80,000-t0n Fujian (CV-18), with a flat flight deck and using catapult to launch aircraft." I don't think these are intended to fight for sea control. Unless China thinks it can isolate India.

America is enduring society-wide Lysenkoism, isn't it? "There are many beliefs out there that I think are toxic and out of touch with reality. 'Queers for Palestine!' 'Keep Government’s Hands Off My Medicare!' And so on. Antisemitism is just one crazy belief among many that have caught on with young elites. ... We are in the process of becoming a society where fashion is more powerful than logic."

Hamas has failed to expand the ground war into Israel's northern border (Hezbollah and Iran's militias in Syria) or the West Bank. But Iran is expanding the war at sea against shipping. The attacks on ships is seemingly meant to scare America into pressuring Israel into ending its offensive in Gaza. But it puts the conflict at sea out of sight of easy reporting and in a domain best suited to American and allied naval and air power to defeat--if America chooses to make Iran fear Western power rather than act like Iran is the scary power. Note that while I think Iran would be happy if the West Bank exploded and are happy to use the Houthi for attacking civilian ships, Iran doesn't want to risk its assets in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq.

Democrats need to stop their murky lawfare attempting to defeat Trump outside of the 2024 election. I'm on strong ground having urged Republicans to quickly prove decisive fraud in 2020 or move the fight into politics: "Better to endure a poor emperor than take an extraordinary measure outside of the law that defeats that emperor in favor of a good emperor and guarantee endless battles for the purple for generations to come. I can't remember who said that in regard to the Roman empire. Better to investigate the election after Biden's inauguration and use, if necessary and justified, the provisions in the Constitution on impeachment." Never think things can't possibly get worse.

I'm not exactly against this: "The Defense Department on Friday unveiled its new rules for reducing harm to civilians while striking military targets, a development inspired by 2021 reviews of the U.S.’ erroneous targeting of civilians in Syria." As long as it doesn't in practice reward using human shields.

Justice: "A U.S. drone strike has killed a senior Somali militant accused of masterminding a 2020 attack on a military base in Kenya that killed three Americans, a top Somali official told The Washington Post on Friday."

A diverse military is fine as long as everyone is a finely milled cog in the green machine: "The new year will prove the first full calendar year with the Army’s two new senior leaders at the helm, and if the early portions of their respective tenures are any indication, 'discipline' is the service’s new watchword." Diversity doesn't intrinsically improve warfighting. I'm hopeful.

The X-37B is scheduled to go up again this week. 

Still in a useful location: "The North Field, or Tinian North airfield as it is also called, is currently being prepped to be renovated and turned into an active modern U.S. Air Force facility, according to Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of Pacific Air Forces." We need more baskets. Ten years ago we were talking about Tinian.

FFS: "America does not have a viable [drone] quadcopter industry because its cumbersome technological export rules prevent American companies from exporting their products to foreign markets. We have our own troublesome bureaucracies."

Yes, Assad considers America's military presence inside Syria to battle jihadis to be illegal. But America shields Iraq from those jihadis--which Assad illegally funneled into Iraq to be suicide bombers. That program bit Assad in the butt. Which I warned could happen.

Ukraine likes Patriot missiles and NATO countries are trying to send all they can--and learn from Ukraine's experience.

Guam, finally: "Starting late next year, a logistics detachment is expected to kick off a long-awaited, multiyear relocation of Marines from Okinawa to the service’s newest base in the Indo-Pacific." We island-hopped across the Pacific from 1942 to 1945 against opposition far faster than this single move.

Until Hamas is crushed, Gazans can't be "de-Nazified": "populations dominated by brutal extremists cannot be 'won over'." Failure to crush Hamas and de-radicalize Gazans means Hamas will try to repeat October 7, 2023 one day. On a larger scale. Still, pressure might force Israel to fall short of their ultimate goal. Which might actually work out for Israel. And Gazans. And besides, the long campaign to hunt down and kill or capture the Hamas leadership globally will continue after the war in Gaza is "over."

Defiance: "The Philippines is not provoking conflict in the South China Sea, its military spokesperson said on Tuesday, responding to China's accusation that Manila was encroaching on Beijing's territory."

To me, this seems like an opportunity for Belarus to exploit Russian corruption to get a nuclear deterrent to expel Russia: "The president of Belarus said Monday that Russia has completed its shipments of tactical nuclear weapons to his country, an initiative that raised strong concerns in neighboring Poland and elsewhere in the region." And since this adds nothing to Russia's ability to nuke NATO, I wonder if Russia sent working nukes to Belarus to provide that opportunity.

Reaction: "The Indian navy will deploy guided missile destroyer ships in the Arabian Sea as a deterrent after an Israel-affiliated merchant vessel was struck off the Indian coast over the weekend." 

Defiance: "Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi vowed retribution after Israel reportedly killed a high-ranking general in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria on Monday." But is it more chest-beating and flinging poo?

NYT gives a Hamas front man space to weep about suffering during the war they started with Israel by raping, slaughtering, and kidnapping hundreds. Tip to PJ Media. And let's not forget how NYT gave space to Putin back in 2013. That was a satire post with the Putin piece only linked. But welcoming Putin was before the Democrats' sudden flip against Russia.

Why God gave us JDAMs: "A network of NGOs, or non-governmental organizations, seems to be playing a powerful role in coordinating the large-scale invasion of illegals at the US southern border." Tip to Instapundit. And don't say I'm not even-handed when it comes to the issue of NGOs going to war.

Venezuela is upset that Britain is sending a lightly armed warship to Guyana in a show of support in the face of Maduro's revived claims to Guyana territory.

South Korea will buy 20 more F-35As.

The Army wants industry proposals for making command posts flexible and mobile. 

I had been shocked early in the war that I saw no evidence of what I had thought were good Russian electronic warfare capabilities. Now: "Along almost the entirety of the front lines, an invisible wall of electromagnetic pulses now stretches like a shield." They affect drones, too. Not mentioned is use of inertial guidance as a backup for GPS-guided rockets, bombs, and shells. Note that the story said the Russians always had good EW capabilities. But now Russia had superiority over Ukraine by pushing lots into the campaign.

India is acting like Iran is the one who should worry about attacking India: "New Delhi’s defense officials vowed to bring those responsible for the recent attacks on two predominantly Indian-crewed merchant vessels to justice amid the ongoing Houthi and Iranian missile and drone strikes in the Red Sea and beyond."

That capability is relevant as Iran unleashes a quasi-war at sea against commercial shipping: "A Navy mine countermeasures ship based in Bahrain could be back on duty earlier than expected after crews finished months of scheduled maintenance more than two weeks ahead of time."

UGVs.

Coping with loose naval mines: "Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria contributed mine clearing vessels and equipment. NATO members that do not border the Black Sea but do have a lot of commercial shipping operating in it, are also contributing mines clearing ships and equipment."

Quasi-war: "A U.S. guided-missile destroyer and fighters from aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) interdicted a dozen suicide drones and anti-ship missiles on Tuesday, according to U.S. Central Command." 

Yes, without the Byzantine Empire holding the line before the Balkans, Islamic armies might have crushed Western civilization before it could get going. And nobody would be around to define let alone lament the loss of European culture to alien "settler colonialism." Lord, every country today is settled by the victors of sometimes ancient wars that let the conquerors settle in and populate the lands and impose their own culture on the losers.

Putin is signaling interest in a ceasefire to divide the West and encourage it to pressure Ukraine into accepting such an outcome. This would lower Ukrainian morale and slow Western military support. And if he does accept a ceasefire, it will be seen in the West as "peace" while Putin will see it as time to reload. And that gulf in perceptions won't work out well for the West or Ukraine. Unless a magical internal Russian political event saves us from the folly of thinking Putin wants actual peace.

Allies: "The coming year will likely see Washington and Manila expand their cooperation and ready their respective navies to counter China’s assertions of ownership over parts of the South China Sea."

If Iraq won't or can't suppress the Iranian-backed militias attacking our forces, we will: "Iraq condemned as 'a clear hostile act' the overnight US strikes, saying they had killed one member of the security forces and wounded 18 other people, including civilians." Failing to protect our forces there to help Iraq is a clear hostile act. But I assume that the fearful Iraqis quietly approved an attack without getting to know the details. Also, why are Iraqi security forces co-located with Iranian militias?

Russia warns that Japan's sale of Patriot missiles to America will have "grave consequences" for Russia-Japan relations. It's an indirect method of arming Ukraine. The U.S. is grateful. Short of nukes I don't think Russia can do much to keep Japan from sweeping Russian ships and planes from the Sea of Japan.

Turkey has advanced approval of Sweden's NATO membership and reminds America it needs to sell F-16s to it as promised.

This is obviously false because if it was true Erdogan would really like Netanyahu: "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was no different from Adolf Hitler" Turkey remains NATO's black sheep ally.

Record number of illegal Chinese immigrants entering America. Regardless of why they are coming the border needs to be brought under control to make sure immigration is done on our terms. But I don't assume that this is a hostile measure by China. Isn't the simple explanation that Chinese people are fleeing a cruel dictatorship with a slowing economy? Although, sure, some part could be agents of China. Again, we need to control our border regardless of why so many people are streaming into America.

This article blames Obama for much of our current foreign policy problems. But the effort to be balanced by blaming Bush 43 for so-called failures in Iraq and Georgia founder on the reality. Still, this is right: "At a minimum, we will see a return to the Obama doctrine that equates passivity with peace." I wrote about that misconception.

Is this really fully intended for occupation duty inside Russia-controlled Ukraine? "Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a series of laws on December 25 to help further bolster Russia’s force generation capacity. Putin signed laws allowing Rosgvardia to form its own volunteer formations, providing for the possibility of conscription service in the Federal Security Service (FSB)[.]" The Rosgvardia (National Guard) is Putin's own ground force, after all. Is this really about expanding his personal protection army? Which will be useful to consolidate Russian control inside Ukraine. But ultimately it might be intended to keep a Russian army from marching on Moscow.

Israel's long-term objectives: "the destruction of Hamas, the demilitarization of Gaza and the beginning of a deradicalization process of Palestinian society." Somehow Israel needs to create a future peace partner from scratch.

Democratic and media insistence that the only solution to migrants flooding across our border is to rewrite our immigration laws is ridiculous and an assault on reason. How we treat people who illegally enter America is completely separate from the issue of keeping people from entering our country contrary to our existing immigration laws. I've long said that controlling the border must take place before rewriting those laws on whether migrants can stay. It's a lie to our public that Biden tried on the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle, too.

Oh? "A top Kremlin propagandist called on the US to hand over its European military bases to Russia in a terrifying warning this week." Terrifying? No. But I'll have what he's drinking. #WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings. Tip to Instapundit.

I think we could do without--and probably thrive--with a quarter of the capacity. Assuming attendance is based mostly on merit. Via Instapundit.

Purged for corruption or for insufficient perceived loyalty to Xi? "Scores of officials have been snagged in Chinese leader Xi Jinping's campaign to cleanse vulnerable sections of the military of corruption, a China-focused consulting firm says."

The DOD description of INDOPACOM initiatives in 2023.

Thoughts on improving NATO ground-based air defenses.

Via Instapundit, why you don't hate the media enough. I'm clearly not the only one who thinks you can't hate and distrust the media enough. He's mostly mad about the double standard. And he has a point. But is it providing valuable information in rare publication real estate? Or is it propaganda from an evil enemy? That's my main problem.

A regional benefit of global warming.

Russia builds a navy port in Abkhazia to avoid Ukraine's growing anti-ship reach. When Russia leased Sevastopol from Ukraine, Russia didn't have this problem. But in 2014 Russia made Ukraine an enemy rather than a trading partner and landlord.

Well that's innovative: " Ukrainian experts examined a Russian cruise missile that had crashed, and discovered that the Russians were using telephone Ukrainian network SIM cards that allowed the missile to use Ukrainian mobile phone network to navigate to targets despite possible GPS jamming. Both Ukraine and Russia are improvising to take advantage of technologies not available in previous wars."

China liked it better when it waged a subliminal war against its neighbors beneath the notice of the world: "China's defence ministry lashed out at the United States on Thursday, a week after their top military officials resumed high-level talks, criticising its continued meddling in the Asia Pacific region and saying it maintained a 'Cold War' mindset." How will China react to the Philippines more open resistance to that Chinese subliminal war?

To be fair, Biden doesn't inspire much confidence in his resolve: "U.S. President Joe Biden hoped to present a firm international response to Yemen's Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping by launching a new maritime force, but a week after its launch many allies don't want to be associated with it, publicly, or at all." Especially when asked to confront Iran.  

That lickspittle of Putin has a point. The West won't just let Russia and its fellow thug states just take what they want: "The intrigues of Western countries whose dominance is ebbing away are largely responsible for pitching the world into turmoil, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview published on Thursday." Because they always want more. 

I don't give up on a better Russia. But its brutal invasion of Ukraine means we have to accept that we can't work with current Russian leadership to build a better Russia. But there is a basis in common interest to end the war with even a bad Russia. And then work for the better elements gaining influence and power.

That was fun for undermining unit cohesion: "The [Pentagon] report concludes that extremism in the military is rare but dangerous." It's rare. You have to read deep into the article after reading that extremism experts expected the report to show "how bad the military’s extremism problem is." Not whether there is one. But how bad what we all know is there is. Now do left-wing extremism.

Good: "The U.S. Navy’s recent force structure study puts even greater importance on small combatants, the director of surface warfare said, a shift in priorities that could require the surface navy to rebalance its ongoing modernization plans." We need networked numbers. Including unmanned vessels.

Practicing to fight for the high ground.

Well, North Korea has claimed for about seventy years that America is preparing to invade North Korea: "North Korea leader Kim Jong Un has ordered his country's military, munitions industry and nuclear weapons sector to accelerate war preparations to counter what he called unprecedented confrontational moves by the U.S., state media said on Thursday."

LOL: "China's defence ministry on Thursday urged the Asia-Pacific to be on high alert as the United States steps up forward military deployment in the region, after reports of a U.S. plan to revive a Pacific airfield that launched atomic bombings of Japan." Everyone knows China is the threat while America is the one trying to hold the line. By all means, countries in the Asia-Pacific region, stay alert to aggression.

The "commodification" of war with cheap weapons: "The war in Ukraine has made it increasingly clear that modern warfare is now undergoing its own aggressive period of commodification." I think that will help enable warBay for private actors wage war. But I'm not on board the idea that this threatens Western militaries, which in time will use the same weapons. 

India and Russia discussed joint production of weapons. India needs weapons to resist China. And I think India is a potential means to get Russia to agree that China is a common threat. 

The captain maneuvered the ship into shallow water to avoid sinking: "A civilian cargo ship struck a Russian mine in the Black Sea near Ukraine’s Danube ports Thursday, injuring two sailors[.]"

Interesting: "The Associated Press published an interview with Ukrainian Special Operations Forces personnel on December 26 wherein Ukrainian personnel stated that they were prepared to conduct a crossing of the Dnipro River to the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast in late May 2023 but that the destruction of the KHPP dam and subsequent flooding postponed these plans.[11] The Ukrainian personnel reportedly conducted limited crossing attempts in July, August, and September 2023, but Ukrainian forces did not launch a larger crossing aimed at establishing a bridgehead on the east bank until mid-October 2023." Does this mean the current scale of operations could have diverted enough Russian forces to make the southern counteroffensive successful? Or does it mean Ukraine could have expanded operations beyond diversionary raids? And what is the state of the ground post-flooding for the purpose of expanding the current operations with bridging operations?

F**k these people and their pro-Hamas cause: "Thousands of anti-Israel protesters swarmed Manhattan on Thursday — with one group shutting down the front entrance to the World Trade Center’s Oculus and another organizing a funeral procession for children who were killed in Gaza." Palestinians celebrated the destruction of the original in 2001 and now they return to the scene of the crime.

Western feminists avert their eyes because of who committed the vile crimes: "A Times investigation uncovered new details showing a pattern of rape, mutilation and extreme brutality against women in the attacks on Israel." Western feminists tell women to do their duty to the Left and just lie back and think of the oppressed.

Every last member of Hamas or their jihadi allies in Gaza must die. Accept their surrender (and that's to preserve the humanity of the soldiers fighting Hamas--not to show misplaced mercy to the murderers and rapists). But act accordingly if they don't. They wanted war? Give them more than they can handle. They are monsters unfit to be part of humanity.

NATO rearms. Ah, strategersky!

Ukraine really likes the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. And they find the old but modernized M-113 useful.

Does Ukraine already have F-16s in action?

Units have to be cut to make sure what exists isn't hollow from too many slots empty: "The Army finished fiscal year 2023 with only 452,000 active duty soldiers, its smallest force since 1940." Otherwise we will fool ourselves that the units on paper are combat ready.

Puffer fish reacts: "In a nationally televised address Thursday, Maduro said that 6,000 Venezuelan troops — including air and naval forces — will conduct joint operations off the nation’s eastern coast near the border with Guyana."

A full American amphibious ready group with a reinforced Marine battalion is back together in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. I assume this is puffing up to deter Hezbollah.

American infantry will soon get the LASSO suicide drone: "The Army envisions LASSO as consisting of three pieces of equipment: the reusable launch tube, the drone itself, and a reusable fire control station. This is not unlike a Javelin anti-tank missile, for example[.]"

Light tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle, and UGV "wingmen" for the Army. 

Israel is working to exploit information gained from taking over Hamas electronic and paper documents.

The Washington Post has a new motto: Darkness dies in democracy. The bad guys see democracy as an obstacle to their goals. I'm very disappointed in Robert Kagan. From a freedom agenda abroad to a kill-your-political-opponent-at-home agenda. That's shameful. You don't need the ability to hear dog whistles to perceive his intent. Tip to Instapundit. As I've noted:

Because some people's new year's resolution is to kill infidels: "Security will be tight across France on New Year’s Eve, with 90,000 law enforcement officers set to be deployed, domestic intelligence chief Céline Berthon said Friday."

If I can overlook Trump's statements I can overlook Nikki Haley's--but hope she learns.

Knocker-uppers. I had no idea. Fascinating. Inexpensive clocks eliminated that job. Elaine would understand the need.

Well of course she said that: "New York Times journalist Nikole Hannah-Jones claimed on Sunday that the North did not actually fight to end slavery during the Civil War.

Victor Hanson is perplexed about the attitudes of many of the foreign-born anti-Jewish and pro-Hamas protesters in America: "Why would those who have fled despotic regimes in the Middle East to study, work, or reside in a free America, once safely here, rally for the very dictatorships they left behind and apparently do not wish to return to?" And he asks: "Why trash the very foundation and values of their American hosts who ensure their newfound freedoms?" Well, like American progressives, they gain emotional and financial benefits from tearing away at the fabric of American society, confident that the fabric will actually hold together to allow them to enjoy those benefits in a well-ordered society. But if too many tear away for long enough, society will be torn apart, wrecking the benefits for everyone.

It isn't "Islamophobic" to expect jihadis to murder people: "Turkish security forces have detained 32 people suspected of links to ISIS who were allegedly planning to carry out attacks on synagogues and churches as well as the Iraqi Embassy, Turkey’s state-run news agency reported Friday." Even Moslems are wise to worry.

I'd laugh at the ridiculous Democratic claims that "Trump is literally Hitler," but the people extruding that evidence-free claim are goose stepping while they do it.

Thoughts about dangers for the West in 2024.

The Democratic Party's Council of Guardians is forming before our eyes: "I’m no lawyer, but I doubt the 14th Amendment was designed to empower unelected state officials to unilaterally strike major party frontrunners from the presidential ballot." Or elected state officials, for that matter. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm skeptical that this is true: "in Ukraine, swarms of FPV (First Person View) UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) are revolutionizing how wars are fought. There are few methods to defeat UAV attacks." Just wait for the combat air patrol drones, as I advocated in Army magazine. So I've been aware of the threat. I'm not denying FPV drones are useful. But I think their effect is outsized because countermeasures are lagging. And I suspect the static nature of the war on the ground creates better conditions for short-range drone warfare.

Closer relations between America and the Philippines has stitched together American allies from Japan to Australia concerned about China's aggressive intent and power. China is throwing elbows legally and with armed and unarmed force to split America and the Philippines.

Using surface-to-air missiles as surface-to-surface missiles.

Opening up the free fire zone on the White House. I've long thought that Democrats want Republicans to push Biden out of the 2024--and then raise funds by blaming the dastardly Republicans for putting Grandpa Joe on the ice flow. Tip to Instapundit.

China's rival trade bloc, BRICS, loses a candidate: "In a letter to the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, Mr Milei said decisions taken by the preceding [Argentinian] government had been revised." Tip to Instapundit.

The news and entertainment media have long said they are ticking time bombs, victims of a uniquely evil war. But it was slander: "Suicide rates for Vietnam veterans over the past four decades were no higher than that of the general population." Tip to Instapundit.

Air power and damage assessment, from World War I to Ukraine's new suicide drones to strike targets hundreds of miles inside Russia. Note too the assessment that Israel failed in 2006 by relying on air power to fight Hezbollah. As I wrote at the time: "In 1973 the Israelis needed 18 days to mobilize and defeat the combined militaries of Syria and Egypt. This time the Israelis were unfocused, intent on winning with air power alone, then used minimal ground force in a shallow frontal assault that was just a low-level war of attrition, and then gathered forces for a big push that lasted all of half a day or so before pulling back." The clock always ticks when Israel fights.

Democrats in the government are using private hand puppets to keep Trump from even running for president in 2024: "Through this effort, government officials and well-funded NGOs are attacking democracy in the name of saving it."

In retrospect, Russia probably should have finished off Georgia before taking on Ukraine: "Russia is expected to revive its 2008 war with Georgia one it has extricated itself from the mess it made when it invaded Ukraine in 2022." Unless the West makes an own-goal by cutting off Ukraine and letting Russia win this war. Then Russia's strategy might be seen as brilliant in the long run for restoring much of the old Soviet empire.

Russia is flying over our bases inside Syria. I'm sure the Russian planes are passing information along to Iranian militias that attack our outposts in Iraq and Syria. I mean, we pass along a lot of intelligence to the Ukrainians. The difference is that our planes stay out of Russian and even Ukrainian air space. Russia risks accidental clashes if we mistake a Russian plane overhead for an imminent air attack.

Technically this may be narrowly correct but irrelevant because of how they "resist": "A United Nations official said in an interview last week that Palestinians who kill Israeli soldiers are not guilty of crimes because such killings are in line with their 'right to resist,' in the latest controversial comments by the anti-Israel official." But, the Palestinians who fight Israeli soldiers while refusing to wear uniforms under a command structure and/or use civilians as human shields to fight Israeli soldiers are absolutely committing war crimes. As are Palestinians who murder, rape, torture, and mutilate civilians or captured soldiers.

As long as their actions support America, I guess I can overlook that this statement could be used to blame China for starting the subliminal aggression or America for resisting the aggression: "Foreign ministers of Southeast Asia's regional bloc ASEAN on Saturday expressed their concern over growing tensions in the South China Sea which they said could threaten regional peace and urged for peaceful dialogue among parties."

We say we did it in self defense after the crews fired on us, but the effort to board should be justification enough for killing pirates: "The US Navy has destroyed Houthi 'small boats' attempting to board a container ship in the Red Sea." We should have also sunk the 4th boat that fled the scene. 

Is this the start of civilian resistance to sending Russian men to die in Ukraine? Or is it just a futile gesture that only tells us not all Russians are willing to feed Putin's meat grinder? "As the second anniversary of the Ukraine conflict looms, the female relatives of Russia's mobilised men are becoming more and more outspoken in calling for their loved ones to come home." The government is unsure of how to respond.

Xi Jinping has more territorial ambitions: "Chinese President Xi Jinping said China would 'surely be reunified' with Taiwan during his televised New Year’s address, renewing Beijing’s threats to take over the self-ruled island, which it considers its own." Taiwan needs a gut check. Why Russians aren't scared witless, too, is beyond me.

My, that's pretty optimistic (via Instapundit): "What does it mean to be radical, left-wing, progressive? Well, in 2023, it meant making excuses for a genocidal anti-Semitism, refusing to believe evidence of mass rape and naysaying about the terroristic murder of infants. This was the year the ‘right side of history’ brigade exploded their phoney moral superiority for good." Radical left-wing progressives worshipped all the Soviets back to Lenin, Mao, Che, Pol Pot, Ho Chi Minh, Castro, Hugo Chavez, and any number of other depraved destroyers of life and society who said the right words about "the people" they actually destroyed. This recent Hamas golden calf will not be the last monsters they worship. Progressives are evil. Or at least evil-adjacent. 

And in football news, the referees simply sided with Dallas to deny Detroit an epic last minute and gutsy win with a 2-point conversion.  More here. Can't have Jimmy Johnson's day in the sun rained on by the Lions, eh? Tar. Feathers. That said, I was perplexed why we went for a TD on fourth down when down 3-7 rather than kick an easy field goal. We should have had three more points. Although obviously I know Dallas decisions would have flowed differently if they had been four points up rather than seven. Yes, the Lions could have won but for other plays (I don't even want to talk about the near safety against Dallas that somehow turned into a Dallas TD). But at that late stage in the game, there was only one way for Dallas to win--screwing the Lions with a bad call.

Well that's just stupid. Stupid to ask. Way more stupid to comply.

Just Say No to an Aviation Cruiser For the Navy

Will the Navy build a fire support ship that includes drones as part of a wide-ranging arsenal? Why am I getting Arsenal Ship vibes with tail fins, chrome, and more marketing?

This is interesting, to be sure:

As the Navy seeks to accelerate its “drone” explosion, the service continues to contemplate a wide range of weapons applications and operational formations for unmanned systems…..one of which could involve the creation of an armed, maritime “mobile fire base” capable of employing a wide range of sensors, countermeasures and weapons as needed in surface warfare. 

How would it be equipped?

Tomahawks, torpedoes, over-the-horizon missiles, 5-inch guns and SM-3 interceptors might all integrate onto and arm a single, mobile surface drone warship … capable of merging reconnaissance missions with defensive and offensive weapons operating under human supervision.  

This concept seems like the old Soviet "heavy aviation cruisers" designed to evade Turkish Strait limits on aircraft carrier passage. While it had a lot of weapons that made the aviation element a minor part of its firepower, it is still a massive concentration of power in a single hull.

In an era when big expensive ships are targets and we should be working to mass effects from networked smaller vessels, subs, aircraft, and shore batteries, we get a proposal for an expensive Arsenal Ship with better marketing (DRONES! IT'S UNMANNED!) that is simply another high-value target for an enemy. It in no way supports this concept (back to the initial article):

This thinking related to better “arming” the surface fleet goes back to 2015 and before when the Navy launched its “distributed lethality” concept, a strategy intended to much more fully arm surface warships with short and long-range weapons, layered defenses and targeting systems.

What is distributed about one more high-value target? Distributed lethality is network-centric and not platform-centric for the purpose of massing effects.

If the Navy wants drone carriers with or without other weapons and systems, make cheap crewed auxiliary cruisers using containerized systems with or without a drone flight deck that creates a CVE that can be sent to sea in larger numbers. 

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Whose Access Will Be Denied?

What's the point of defeating China's weapons designed to keep America away from China's coastal regions? Is the proper American response to create our own version to keep China's navy penned in west of the first island chain that stands between China and the open seas?

This author has a great point about China's anti-access/area denial (A2/AD):

Yet, our core challenge is not actually how to pop that A2AD bubble; we do not actually want to seize and hold any territory currently held by the People’s Liberation Army. It is actually the inverse: how can we create our own robust anti-access aerial denial around our bases and allies, with our own cost advantages?  

I've certainly noted the need for a purpose for penetrating China's A2/AD envelopes:

I've been puzzled that Air-Sea Battle efforts to penetrate Chinese anti-access weapons in order to operate near China haven't really said what we'd do with the ability to operate near China[.]

So penetrating China's A2/AD bubbles only makes sense if American follow-on operations exploit the defeat of China's A2/AD assets rather than just sailing around off of China.

Certainly, one can imagine scenarios that would justify an American land forces presence inside China short of trying to conquer China.

And while America has no interest in seizing and holding any territory China holds prior to war, what about Chinese conquests during the war?

There are defensive reasons for penetrating China's A2/AD bubbles: supplying and assisting our allies within the bubbles. Abandoning them could lead them to fall out of our alliance even if China cannot conquer them.

And depending on where the campaign area is, penetrating the A2/AD bubbles could be necessary to assist allies with American land power on China's periphery, as I explored in that Military Review article.

Yes, I recognize that pinning China's fleet in their coastal areas with our own A2/AD assets is a great idea.

Using the Marines to man this wall across the islands of the Western Pacific is certainly valuable. But land power's core contribution to war has to be for controlling land in larger campaigns:

A Navy-Marine ulcer can certainly inflict damaging and disproportionate casualties on the Chinese navy if the PLAN pushes out to the first island chain. But it won't prove to be deadly if China can pull back in the face of America's kill web, and still hold off direct attacks on China. 

Ultimately, it is not enough even to be able to sail at will close to China. The Navy and Marine effort must ultimately enable a major ground campaign around China's periphery. Just as 19th century British naval supremacy enabled Wellington's "ulcer" campaign ashore.

Posing a threat to China itself on the ground in cooperation with China's ground enemies is the way to make the ulcer debilitating and pressure China to end their war.

Don't be comforted by the idea that all America needs to do is keep China from breaking out into the central Pacific. Too many of our allies needed to hold the line are a battlefield between China's A2/AD shield and our developing shield. At some point we need to exploit the victory of our shield, break China's shield, and exploit that access to help our allies vulnerable to Chinese pressure.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Hamas Chose Poorly

For all the initial talk about how Israel was falling into a Hamas by attacking into Gaza after enduring the October 7th murder, rape, and kidnapping raid, it was Hamas that effed up.

Hamas calculated an entirely different path for this war than the one it is on:

Hamas expected Israel to plead for negotiations to secure the freedom of some 240 Israeli captives. Images from Gaza on Oct. 7 showed Hamas guerrillas ecstatic about the possibility of a massive prisoner swap. But Israel instead unleashed a withering military campaign. Moreover, Hamas did not inform Iran and its regional allies in advance about its plans. It assumed Hezbollah would join the fighting from southern Lebanon and that Iraqi militias in Syria would engage Israel from the Golan Heights. Hezbollah’s unenthusiastic involvement in the war has cost it far more casualties than Israel and did not relieve even the slightest pressure on embattled Hamas. Hamas was left stunned by its allies’ tepid response, having previously believed its attack would transform the Middle East and pave the path toward establishing a Palestinian state. An extraordinary summit of Arab and Islamic countries held last month in Saudi Arabia resulted only in generic statements of support for the Palestinians and demands for the immediate cessation of hostilities. Hamas counted on the outbreak of a third intifada, but Israel’s preemptive raids against West Bank activists ruled out this possibility as well.

That seems spot on.

Very briefly I wondered if Iran was behind this to scuttle improved Saudi-Israel relations.

But I soon demoted that probability and raised the idea that Hamas simply likes killing Jews.

I also thought that Hamas succeeded beyond their hopes to increase Israeli resolve to crush Hamas. That seems more accurate. Hamas wanted to humiliate Israel with a massive hostage trade while Hamas allies showed a solid front to further weaken Israel's image of strength.

I suspected Iran didn't know about the attack despite being a backer of Hamas. Nor did I think Iran was eager to get involved in the war. And I doubted Hezbollah--bloodied in the Syrian multi-war to sustain Assad--was willing to join in the war. Hezbollah, I noted as time went on, was using short-range weapons in a trickle of attacks to look like it was doing something without triggering a big Israeli response.

I also said Arab governments had no love for Hamas and the Palestinians.

I was completely unsure about West Bank reactions. As for Iraqi militias in Syria, they weren't really on my radar as an independent actor. So Iran's view would determine their role.

So yeah, Hamas effed up. Instead of humiliating Israelis, Hamas enraged them.

We'll see how much of a price Hamas pays in the short run. And how determined Israel is to chase down the survivors of their ground campaign no matter where the Hamas terrorists run and no matter how long that pursuit lasts.

UPDATE: Justified:

Israel is pushing back against critics — and even supporters like U.S. President Biden — who say it’s indiscriminately bombing targets inside the Gaza Strip while aiming to destroy Hamas.

There are a lot of Gazan civilian casualties. Even if Hamas is exaggerating them. But quantity of civilian casualties does not have a war crimes quality all its own.

Each attack must be evaluated in the realm of whether that attack is proportional to the military objective sought. Too many people wrongly think proportionality is a measure of total pain each side is "allowed" to feel under the rules of war. 

On the other side, using civilians to shield your forces is always a war crime.

UPDATE: America hit Iranian proxies inside Iraq: 

The US defence chief said three sites used by Kataib Hezbollah and other groups were hit in response to attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.

I don't consider this related to the war on Hamas. This is the U.S.-Iran war, in Iraq. Iran is consistent in this war by treating America as an enemy. America is sometimes ... conflicted.

UPDATE: Israel really wants Hezbollah to back off from attacks across the Israel-Lebanon border. Remember, per a UN Security Council resolution following the 2006 war, Hezbollah is not supposed to be near the border. And UN forces are supposed to--but don't--keep Hezbollah out of the border region where they attack Israel.

UPDATE: An ISW update. Is Israel serious about pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River if it won't withdraw on its own (in accordance with a UNSC resolution)?

UPDATE: Israel plans for more war despite apparent American pressure:

In a new year's message, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman said troop deployments were being adjusted to prepare for "prolonged fighting".

Daniel Hagari said some troops - especially reservists - would be withdrawn to allow them to regroup.

"These adaptations are intended to ensure the planning and preparation for continuing the war in 2024," he said.

At some point Israel needs to demobilize reservists to revive economic activity, until the reservists are truly needed. 

UPDATE: Ah, there it is:

Israel has withdrawn five IDF brigades from the Gaza Strip, which is consistent with Israeli forces transitioning to a third phase of operations. The third phase will include the end of major combat operations, a “reduction in forces” in the Gaza Strip, the release of reservists, a “transition to targeted raids,” and the establishment of a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.

The war will go on in Gaza and globally to hunt down Hamas members.

UPDATE: A good jihadi: 

The TV station of Lebanon’s Hezbollah group says top Hamas official Saleh Arouri was killed Tuesday in an explosion in a southern Beirut suburb.

Ending major combat operations in Gaza won't mean Israel's war on Hamas is over. 

And if Hezbollah joins the war against Israel because of this, the war will be different than Hezbollah may assume.

UPDATE: Israel nailed a number of Hamas and affiliated leaders. 

UPDATE: An ISW update. Note that in the north the Israelis are operating in more and more of the northeastern part of Gaza. I had thought perhaps Israel was going to only take key parts of the urban areas and then use air and ground raids to kill off trapped jihadis. Now it looks like they want to clear it all. Hopefully the remaining defenders are weakened to keep the cost in lives (to Israeli troops and local civilians) low.

UPDATE: Oh? 

Hamas's goal, despite all the losses they incur fighting Israel, is to destroy the trust that the Israelis have in their army and leaders.

Not to dismiss a "futurist," but I think that is projection trying to impose logic on the war after Hamas failed in its initial goals; and actually enraged Israelis rather than demoralize them. 

We've heard reports that Hamas hoped to drag in Hezbollah, Iran, and the Arab world into the war. And that Hamas had hoped for a massive prisoner exchange with all the hostages they planned to take. Instead they got a full war that Israel wants to be the last war against Hamas.

I imagine Hamas will turn to the traditional measure of victory when Arabs fight Israel: emerging from the rubble after a ceasefire to claim their survival proves a glorious victory. Huzzah.

UPDATE: This just means Israel has failed to kill or capture the fighters, who can be reconstituted with new leadership and command and control:

IDF officials added that they have dismantled Hamas’ “military framework” in the northern Gaza Strip. An Israeli Army Radio defense correspondent reported on January 6 that Israeli forces no longer permanently operate in the entire area of the northern strip and have moved to the border with Israel.

So Hamas will be able to emerge from the rubble, dust themselves off, and proclaim victory for surviving.

Although perhaps it depends on how thoroughly Israel conducts raids into abandoned territory to continue hunting Hamas members. 

As an aside, I find it hard to believe that all the Israeli brigades shown operating inside Gaza are actually complete brigades. I think it took the surge to get that many American combat brigades in Iraq.

UPDATE: OPSEC:

Only five Hamas leaders knew the full scope of the October 7 invasion plan, and they only made the final decision to attack on that Saturday the day before, according to a new report in Asharq Al-Awsat. 

That's impressive. Does this explain why Israel downplayed what they saw?

Still, the planning and preparation took years. That's risky for giving the Israelis time to discover the plan, but also impressive for dulling reactions (back to the article):

If the report is correct, part of why Israeli intelligence likely discounted the scenario is because it had existed since 2014 and had never been carried out.

Anybody connecting dots accurately would become the boy who cried wolf, no? 

Also from that initial article, the unexpected success in my opinion changed the operation from a humiliation of Israel into a horror that caused Israel to resolve to destroy Hamas:

Originally, the report said that Hamas’s plan was just to capture as many soldiers as possible on the border and possibly to get into some villages.

But the report said that Hamas was surprised at how quickly Israeli defenses crumbled and, in real-time, around 90 minutes into the attack, ordered additional waves of forces to take greater advantage of the breach in Israeli security to get into more villages.

We'll see how committed Israel is to finishing the job in the face of global pressure to end their war:

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Wall Street Journal on January 7 that Israeli forces would shift from the “intense maneuvering phase of the war” to special operations. Gallant cautioned that the conflict “will last for a longer time” as Israel has not abandoned its stated war objectives.

The protests will dwindle as the high-profile strikes give way to quieter raids, I imagine. 

UPDATE: Hezbollah struck an Israeli army base with drones. But it was probably Solidarity Theater:

Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, in a televised speech, said his group did not want to expand the war from Lebanon, "but if Israel expands (it), the response is inevitable to the maximum extent required to deter Israel".

Not the maximum extent required to aid Hamas. Still, watch Hezbollah's capabilities because intent can change quickly. 

UPDATE: Israeli forces expand efforts to control ground in the southwest:

Israeli forces, advancing deep into western Khan Younis in Gaza's bloodiest fighting of the new year so far, stormed one hospital and placed another under siege on Monday[.]

This is purportedly the last large-scale operation prior to settling in for hunting Hamas members in a more low-key campaign extending into the indefinite future. 

UPDATE: Strategypage provides an overview of the struggle.

UPDATE: If the war is existential and either Israel or Hamas has to be destroyed, I side with Israel. And remember, the war isn't existential for the Gazans used as human shields by Hamas and its orbiting jihadi groups. If the surrender the large-scale military operations will end quickly. Israel doesn't need to destroy Gazans--just jihadi terrorists.

UPDATE: Dig your own grave and you invite this: 

The Israeli army said Tuesday it is channelling water into Gaza's tunnels in a bid to destroy the sprawling underground network used by Hamas militants to launch attacks on Israel.

UPDATE: I'd prefer a metric of "destroyed" given I have no idea what "dismantled" means:

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on February 5 that Israeli operations have dismantled 18 of 24 Hamas battalions, rendering them “no longer [functional] as fighting military” organizations.[

Do major combat operations end when Israel hits 24 out of 24? 

UPDATE: Israel rescued 2 hostages held by Gaza terrorists in an apartment building:

At 1.49am on Monday, Israeli commandos climbed to the roof of a two-storey building in the middle of Gaza’s sprawling southern city of Rafah.

After entering the block, elite counter-terrorism soldiers descended to the second floor where they attached explosives to the door of an apartment.

The blast instantly killed three Hamas terrorists standing in the corridor on the other side.

Those men were guarding Fernando Marman, 60, and Louis Har, 70, who were kidnapped from their kibbutz of Nir Yitzhak, just across from Gaza, 129 days earlier.

"Critics" are outraged:

It was also an operation which saw yet more Palestinians killed in devastating distraction bombings that allowed the hostages to escape to the safety of a hospital in Israel.

The bombing of that other buildings was because it contained Hamas terrorists who could interfere with the rescue:

As commandos began their raid on the apartment complex they would also have been aware of a high number of Hamas fighters stationed in two other adjacent buildings.

I'm no lawyer, but I think that Hamas crimes of holding hostages and hiding their fighters among civilians meets the requirement of using only the firepower necessary to achieve your lawful military objective. 

UPDATE: So it's a official. No Arab state wants to accept Hamas-infected Palestinians: 

Egypt is building a massive miles-wide buffer zone and wall along its border with southern Gaza, new satellite images show, as fears grow over Israel’s planned ground offensive in Rafah where more than half of Gaza’s population is sheltering.

UPDATE: Israel's plan to defeat Hamas and jihadi allies has a short-term military objective, a medium-term internal Palestinian security objective, and a long-term objective of deradicalizing Palestinians. 

What's missing is a contrast to Israeli control. What alternative doesn't rely on trusting Hamas not to murder and rape again?

UPDATE: I'm torn whether this hurts Israel by sustaining the ability of Hamas to keep resisting; or if this American air drop helps Israel by buying it time to complete the destruction of Hamas:

Three planes from Air Forces Central dropped 66 bundles containing about 38,000 meals into Gaza at 8:30 a.m. EST (3:30 p.m. local). 

But it happened. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

You're So Vain. You Probably Think These Nukes Are About You

Does the Chinese Communist Party think lots of nukes are the best way to guarantee that the country of China never becomes a continent of multiple Chinese states? Or is it all about America?

This Chinese nuclear weapons trend is painted as a threat to America: 

According to a new Department of Defense (DoD) report on the military power of China, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) nuclear arsenal grew from 200 to over 500 warheads in just the past four years and will hit 1,000 and by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.

And to a certain degree, it is. If America and China are in a confrontation or war, China will have more nuclear leverage than it has now.

But China has not felt much of a need for more nukes to deter America (or India) thus far. Suddenly having a lot more nukes is vitally important to China's rulers. Why?

Maybe China wants to deter someone else that sees nukes as its ultimate territorial defense. Which is more pronounced now that most of Russia's shattered army is fighting Ukraine.

Or maybe the Chinese Communist Party sees a lot of nukes--as long as it retains control of them--as the best means of protecting China's territorial integrity from foreigners if the CCP finds it has to fight other Chinese to re-centralize China. As I note in one link in that post:

With a state both cruel and failing economically, governing a continent-sized population with a history of fragmentation, I don't know why we need to guess which course the government of China will follow. The continent of China is big enough that it could follow all the possible paths.

The current Communist Party might retain control of Peking region south to the Yellow Sea, Manchuria, and Inner Mongolia in a rump (though still large) People's Republic of China.

Tibet and the Moslem far west could regain independence under local ethnic rule.

The central poor and rural provinces might revert to real Maoism that promises peasants a better deal.

The regions in the southwest, adjacent to Burma, could become simple military dictatorships of varying degrees of harshness and varying connections to the drug trade.

Hong Kong might become a new Singapore with real democracy.

The coastal provinces might become full blown free market economies with either democracy or autocracy, or steps in between.

In a country the size and complexity of a continent, many futures are possible.

Nukes might keep foreign predators at bay--especially the "domestic" foreigners--until order is restored, no? And nukes would be the ultimate symbol of the authority of whatever rump of China the Chinese Communist Party controls.

I just don't assume China's expanded nuclear arsenal is necessarily for the primary purpose of deterring or fighting America. Mind you, in some ways we have to act as if it is true because intentions can change overnight. But let's not create a self-fulfilling prophecy. Keep calm and carry on.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post. 

Send Missiles--Not Messages

Don't focus too much on sending messages with our fleet sailing off enemy coasts. Focus on building a Navy to win wars.

The Navy's failure to deter enemies in the Middle East means our Navy's deterrent power is evaporating? 

These events show that American naval deterrence is failing, and a recent report from the Sagamore Institute concludes that it could soon evaporate.

That's BS. 

The idea that the study calculated a one-on-one confrontation between and American destroyer and a Chinese destroyer pretends that we are in Monitor versus Merrimack duel days. Our Navy brings surface ships, subs, aircraft, and joint forces into the fight. 

Mind you, I have deep concerns about our Navy. With particular concerns about our Navy leadership. I won't engage in happy talk.

But Iran challenged Reagan's much larger and still expanding Navy in the Persian Gulf in the 1980s. If deterrence rests on rational calculations, Iran showed that sometimes the calculations change dramatically in ways that look irrational to us. But it will make sense to Iran's rulers:

When we contemplate Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, we comfort ourselves that it makes no sense. The same goes for any North Korean threat to invade (or simply attack by bombarding Seoul if they understand how bad their mobile army is now) South Korea or whether it "makes sense" for China to invade Taiwan.

But as I've often noted, what makes no sense to us can make a lot of sense to others making the decision. Victor Hanson explains examples of this thinking[.]

We just won't know about their new thinking ahead of time. As I wrote about Iran's decision in this long essay:

On October 3, 1987, Iran crossed the line into irrationality. Unable to defeat her one enemy Iraq, Iran massed between 30 and 50 speedboats for an attack on Saudi Arabia's off-shore oil terminal at Khafji--the one used by the Kuwaitis and Saudis to sell oil in Iraq's name. Saudi Arabia responded by deploying warships and fighter aircraft. Iran pulled back but five days later in another confrontation the Saudis sank three speedboats.

Iran, apparently not satisfied with defeat at the hands of Iraq and then Saudi Arabia, even struck an American flagged tanker, Sea Isle City, with a Silkworm missile while it lay in Kuwaiti waters. The United States retaliated with Operation Nimble Archer on October 19, 1987, during which three Iranian oil platform bases were attacked. Many Iranians knew that a course of confrontation with America was foolish but the short term satisfaction of striking out at those who helped Iraq--even the United States--was beginning to win out over reason.

It was irrational from our perspective, of course.

So don't focus on how to deter enemies with our "presence" off their shores. I have deep concerns about dangling expensive warships close to enemies, which will tempt them to attack--not deter. My pucker factor always redlines when we send a carrier into the Persian Gulf. 

We hope this presence also reassures allies. But I say send expendable ships. Because when the big ones burn that is the opposite of reassurance.

I hate the idea we cling to that we can send nuanced messages via naval signals. I would rather focus on building a Navy capable of fighting for control of the seas once a war commences--even if it defies our expectations of what our enemy would dare do.

But I'm biased that way. 

UPDATE: Chinese analysts are thinking about the lessons of Pearl Harbor:

The argument they make is that China would launch a surprise attack to try to neutralize US bases in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly those on Guam and Okinawa, at the beginning of a campaign to conquer Taiwan, with the goal of weakening or eliminating the US ability to intervene in Taiwan’s defense.

A theater-wide Pearl Harbor--heck, I worry about a global Pearl Harbor. Although I admit I'm torn about whether China would bring America into the war immediately by attacking us, notwithstanding the immediate military benefits of a successful strike.

China might very well want to paint its invasion of Taiwan as an internal matter and focus only on defeating Taiwan in order to delay American intervention.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.