The Winter War of 2022 Ponders Russia's Limits

Russia has a sizable population advantage over Ukraine. Russia uses it to grind forward across the Donbas region. But what are the limits on exploiting that? Because have no doubt, there is a limit even for Russia.

The war goes on. Russia is seemingly poised to capture the town of Vuhledar in eastern part of the south, which has withstood Russian assaults for over two years. While it is not itself significant, the loss after holding it for so long is bound to be deflating for Ukraine. We'll see if Russia's losses were worth it. Attacks in the east continue to claw forward. Meanwhile in the Kursk region, Russia's command-and-control seems chaotic.

Russia has been plugging disposable cogs into the Russian war machine at a blistering pace:

The number of Russian deaths in Ukraine since the start of the invasion has topped 70,000, according to a new report.

The BBC citing data from Russian independent media outlet Mediazona said that at least 70,112 Russians have now been killed in Ukraine, with most of the dead being civilian volunteers who signed up to fight in the war after the 2022 invasion.

According to the outlets, the figure was compiled from obituaries, death notices, information on graves, and other public information, such as official reports.

We're not talking World War II levels of Russians being slaughtered. But Putin, as bad as he is, doesn't have the level of fear-based control that Stalin wielded. And Russia was invaded in 1941 by a brutal enemy in contrast to being the brutal invader this war.

Putin certainly gives indications he believes Russia has manpower limits:

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly declined a request from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to offset Russian losses by declaring another mobilization wave in spring 2024 likely to avoid political costs associated with involuntary reserve call-ups. Putin has since remained committed to his crypto mobilization campaign, constraining Russia's mobilization potential. ...

Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the near to medium term due to Putin’s personal fear that mobilization is a direct threat to his regime’s stability.

And there's this:

The Kremlin appears to be reorganizing Russia's decentralized, regional volunteer recruitment campaigns into a federal effort, indicating that Russia is struggling to meet the manpower demands of its war in Ukraine despite previous claims that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast caused a spike in Russia's volunteer recruitment.

Oh sure, even demographically imploding but still-large Russia has the young men it could put in uniform. We'll gloss over whether they can be trained, equipped, and properly led before being thrown into the war.

But people are not cogs no matter how much Putin might want them to be. So far Russians accept volunteers being killed in large numbers. Hence Putin's hesitation to mobilize reservists again to keep potential resistance away. Yes, Russia's will to fight could break.

Maybe Russians unaffected by the death toll will remain tolerant enough. That's certainly the way to bet based on recent experience:

A rebellion against the new dictatorship has been derailed by astute propaganda depicting Russia as under siege by the West and NATO. Opinion polls show wide popular support for this paranoid fantasy but some Russians continue to struggle for better government and beneficial reforms. 

For now. But Putin can't count on that:

Kremlin officials are likely wary of war fatigue among the Russian population and are attempting to maintain public support for the war by highlighting the Kremlin's attention to social projects.

And at the front, will the cogs who are expected to die revolt? Or at least stop volunteering?

UPDATE (Tuesday): The West has limits, too, and Ukraine knows it:

Zelenskiy stressed the importance of the upcoming Ukraine Defense Contract Meeting at the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany and stressed the need to make gains ahead of the gathering to assure Western allies of Ukraine’s ability to make battlefield gains.

Ukraine feels it faces a Saratoga moment. 

UPDATE: Attrition:

Recent Ukrainian attacks destroyed substantial stockpiles of Russian munitions, in addition to stockpiles of vehicle and aviation fuel. This means that for the next few months the Russians will be unable to launch major military operations. Attacking with just infantry and no artillery or airstrike support is suicidal. Russian infantry losses have been so heavy since 2022 that Russia is running out of even untrained and ineffective infantry.

Yet Russia continues to be able to rely on the willingness of the cogs to die. 

UPDATE: This author doesn't see any limits:

Russia has also suffered dramatic losses. But it is in position to replenish casualties. Even without resorting to a general draft, the Kremlin has been feeding its army with hundreds of thousands of new troops, most of whom are under contract. Mother Russia pays rather well too. An average soldier from Moscow gets about $60,000 a year.

As for hardware, contrary to what Western media had predicted in the beginning of the war, Russia has been able to fully repair and replace – or even increase – the number of damaged or destroyed tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery pieces. 

Although I strongly quibble with the notion that either Napoleon or Hitler intended to wage a war of attrition to defeat Russia (or the Soviet Union). 

He says the realization has set in that Ukraine may not be able to liberate its territory is now being broached. Nobody would raise it until now. I certainly did in 2022 because I recognized that there are limits to what Ukrainians would sacrifice to liberate territory. And I've raised that willingness to die since then.

Still, I don't assume Russia will necessarily win a war of attrition. I said that early, too.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out and subscribe! Hell, share links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.

Huh: "North Korea has expanded its espionage activities by sending agents trained to act like South Koreas to western nations, including the United States, where they get jobs with firms that have technical information North Korea wants." Plus hacking data and cryptocurrency.

And now for something completely different:

Interesting: "For decades North Korea arms factories operated at low capacity to produce shells, rockets, and bullets for stockpiles to be used in a war with South Korea. Now North Korea has unexpectedly large orders from Russia but can’t obtain the raw materials needed to fill those orders."

North Korea prioritizes the army, but "military families are also going hungry. Political officers, who monitor such things, report that a growing number of military personnel, both conscripts as well as career officers and their families, are hungry and openly criticizing the government." Ignoring the army failed.

Training for warship battle damage assessment. Now do shipyards and trained personnel to build and repair warships.

We'll preserve China's objection in the circular file: "The U.S. is in the final stages of sending almost $570 million in security assistance to Taiwan — the largest such package to date, and one sure to frustrate China — according to multiple congressional aides and a U.S. official."

Britain: "it is difficult to build almost anything, anywhere. This prevents investment, increases energy costs, and makes it harder for productive economic clusters to expand. This, in turn, lowers our productivity, incomes, and tax revenues." You can Brexit. But I guess you can't take the EU out of Britain. 

Sh*t got real: "The 68th Theater Medical Command, activated at a ceremony in southwestern Germany, will serve as a 'one-stop shop' for everything medical on the Continent." 

AFRICOM has little force to wield. So you find alternatives: "The U.S. aims to show that its prescription for good relations in Africa includes medical partnerships with militaries across the continent, some of which are engaged in heated campaigns against militant terrorist groups." The AFRICOM Queen?

It's inconceivable the box could be stolen: "The Air Force has been developing a portable data center that can hold maintenance and sustainment docs for every plane the service has—in a container the size of a window air conditioner." Right??

Welp: "The U.S. expects to announce next week a long-awaited agreement with Iraq on reducing the U.S. troop presence in the country, two administration officials said on Friday." Answering my question with "One more time!" But engineering a decent interval by pushing the date to the next president's tenure.

Until Russia disperses their ammunition and allocates air defense missiles, Ukraine's campaign of blowing up huge ammo dumps just might slow down Russia's invasion. And dispersal and defense imposes costs on Russia, too.

The U.S. has a carrier in CENTCOM (including F-18s ashore), an amphibious group in the Mediterranean carrying a Marine battalion, a SSGN, and a handful of destroyers; and four Air Force squadrons (F-16, F-15, A-10, and F-22). Unmentioned are Army units in Kuwait, Syria, Iraq, and Djibouti.

I don't like this federal power grab: "Congress is poised to adopt language in the annual National Defense Authorization Act that would override governors’ authority over National Guard units." I don't think a Space Force Guard makes sense. Find another way to create a Space Force Reserve.

The Green Rainbow Machine doesn't worry enemies: "Today our military services face growing threats around the world while their ability to maintain a quality, well-trained, and capable force is at risk. Our focus should be on readiness, warfighting, and especially selecting the best qualified leaders possible[.]"

West Worst Point.  Contra MacArthur, our military has too many substitutes for victory.

Is this the result of the X-37? "An amateur astronomer has reportedly captured images of classified US spacecraft."

Potential enemies will do stuff like that: "Pentagon reports say China’s new H-20 bomber has concerning attack range[.]"

Smart Diplomacy®: "Washington’s continuing inability or refusal to formulate let alone execute a winning strategy in Ukraine impedes Kyiv’s efforts to do so and risks achieving defeat despite Russia’s abysmal strategic leadership." If we aren't trying to win, we provide a safety net to an enemy trying to win.

Has Iran sacrificed Hamas in order to gain influence in Lebanon? Will Israel allow that?

Does "concern" encompass action? "President Joe Biden on Saturday hosted a fourth Quad Leaders Summit with Japanese, Australian and Indian leaders, noting issues in the Indo-Pacific region: 'serious concern' over maritime violations by China and North Korea's destabilizing ballistic missile launches." 

If you are confused about college football conference realignment, even the Michigan sports site (it was finally fixed on 9/27, I think) hadn't fully digested the change after defeating new Big 10 member USC last Saturday. Michigan is actually 1-0 in conference play:

 

Men in Afghanistan are having a "it seemed like a good idea at the time" moment as they endure Taliban rule. We effed up. But they--and the women and children suffering more--have to live with their screw-up every day. Just saying our defeat isn't permanent. No more than any victory is permanent.

Leadership: "One of the less publicized forms of NATO military aid for Ukraine was the establishment of a training course for Ukrainian officers based on previous military operations and the current ones in Ukraine. So far over 700 officers from the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces (TDF) have graduated[.]"

The Army's CALL pays off for Ukraine. Many years ago, CALL had a lot more publicly available resources.

The multi-war in Syria (it's too complicated to just call a civil war) continues at a lower pace: "Since 2012 Syria has been in turmoil, dealing with a civil war, Islamic terrorism, and Iranian efforts to launch attacks on Israel." Lebanon shares the turmoil and complexity.

Want an illustration of China's ascendancy over Russia? All three of China's carriers were at sea at the same time, for the first time. And Russia's carrier Kuznetsov? "[Russia] reportedly reassigned the aging ship’s sailors to the army—and sent them into battle in Ukraine." Russia accepted God's gift.

China faces anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), too: "The Air Force is keeping the momentum going with its bomber deployments in Australia, with regional allies increasingly 'welcoming' them as a strategic counterbalance to China’s growing assertiveness." All our bombers can carry LRASM.

So what's the replacement plane? "The U.S. Air Force is set to significantly cut back the number of F-16 Viper aggressor jets at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada, including those flown by a squadron that stood up in a high profile manner just last year." The early blocks are certainly aging.

Consider this a preview of China in the South China Sea: "Ukraine on Monday accused Russia of seeking to illegally seize control of the strategically important Sea of Azov and Kerch Strait, as hearings opened in a high-stakes arbitration case between Kyiv and Moscow."

We'll see: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky toured a Pennsylvania ammunition plant on Sunday as he began a key visit to the United States in which he is expected to present his blueprint to defeat Russia to President Joe Biden and other allies." Is the plan realistic? Will America and our allies supply it?

Oh? "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan called for U.S. sanctions blocking some defence purchases by his country and for other "unilateral" measures that hinder the NATO allies' ability to hit long-term bilateral trade targets to be lifted." Dude, we're still on a break. 

RUMORINT? "gCaptain has received multiple reports that the US Navy oiler USNS Big Horn ran aground yesterday and partially flooded off the coast of Oman, leaving the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group without its primary fuel source." Our fleet sails on its stomach. Tip to Instapundit.

A hypersonic missile truck: "A new B-52 variant, the B-52J is currently on the way with better engines and hypersonic missile capability." A2/AD doesn't build itself, you know.

West Africa is becoming a haven for jihadis, accelerating flows of people to Europe. Russia's Wagner has replaced Western power fighting jihadis but have had no success stopping the jihadis. As if Russia has any interest in doing anything but accelerating illegal migration to Europe!

Russia leans on North Korea for resupply. And provides missile technology to North Korea. Not that this is a surprise.

And yet America plans to withdraw its troops from Iraq, apart from small forces in the Kurdish region of Iraq: "Iraq remains a war zone, although not as violent as in the past. The main source of violence is Iran as well as Islamic terrorist groups that continue operating in the more remote parts of Iraq."

I never heard of this designation: "America’s declaration that the United Arab Emirates is now officially its second-ever Major Defense Partner is expected draw the two friendly nations even closer on military matters and may offer a boost to the UAE’s beleaguered effort to join the international F-35 program[.]"

Should Guam have its missile defense needs met with a cheaper alternative that has a smaller foot print? The man makes a good point.

RUMORINT on that oiler accident is confirmed. CDR Salamander has thoughts on being more than a coastal defense Navy. I heartily concur.

The Army in Germany has a new tracked, armored M270A2. It has twice the rocket load of the lighter and more famous HIMARS. And it can carry 4 of the new Precision Strike Missiles that replace ATACMS.

Prudent: "The Army’s current method of rearming and refueling its helicopters worked well in past wars, but leaders fear it won’t keep pace with the faster-paced, move-or-be-killed wars of the future." But getting into the air isn't really safe, either.

To be fair, while Trump complains about military aid to Ukraine and said he wants to quickly end the war, the story doesn't say Trump plans to cut off aid to Ukraine to address his complaints, as the title says. I'd be disgusted if Trump clears the way for Russia to win. Russia's buffer needs don't trump our need.

Because our military has been ordered to battle so-called climate change, I'll take editor's privilege to note the Earth is colder than it has been in 485 million years (tip to Instapundit). As I've long said, I don't doubt humans emit CO2. I don't know if it is significant. And I don't assume warming is bad. Crisis, indeed.

France ignores Hezbollah in its zeal to pressure Israel to step back from full war inside Lebanon. I guess we have the return of "cheese-eating surrender monkeys" in Paris. Why don't people ask why a major non-state military force with its own (Iran's?) foreign policy exists inside a sovereign state?

I guess if the missile is stealthy it's marginally okay to mount it outside the plane: "The Pentagon has, for the first time, released a photo showing an F-35 stealth fighter carrying an AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM)." But yeah, the missile reduces the F-35 stealth profile.

The United States announced new military aid to Ukraine, including armored vehicles, armored bridge-laying vehicles, small boats, anti-tank weapons, artillery ammunition and aircraft ordnance.

Russia's ground force: it is what it is.

Russia can't get Western ball bearings now: "Russian railroads are at the point of collapse. This process began before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This process was underway before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022." This is a repeat. But quite relevant.

China announced an ICBM test: "This launch is a powerful signal intended to intimidate everyone." Oh? So nobody has intelligence agencies? It's a surprise to everyone that China has ICBMs? I think people get carried away with the significance of "signals" to others.

I'm confused. The Marines will emphasize close-range rifle proficiency based on war on terror experience just as they are de-emphasizing ground combat to shoot at ships? Won't long-range rifle fire be useful to protect the perimeters of SIF island anti-ship missile outposts? Whatever. Rifles will soon do the aiming.

I would be happy to return the favor and unseat the Taliban. This former Afghan general want to fight them: "Former Afghan Lt. Gen. Sami Sadat believes he’ll once again see that flag ascend in Afghan skies." But I worry our funding will just support a lavish life in exile without affecting the Taliban.

Good: "Personnel from 10 nations will join in a massive 10-day Army exercise in Hawaii next month with drills taking place on three of the state’s islands." It isn't large-scale combat operations training. But familiarization will enable that when the tyranny of the shores arises, as I described in Military Review.

Navy force structure and shipbuilding plans.

Duty: "With a live grenade about to explode during a sudden training mishap, Marine Sgt. Brett D. Meil’s only thoughts were for his student, so he threw his own body over a junior Marine just before the grenade went off." Giving trainees a live grenade is a moment of tension for the trainer, as I experienced.

And then, the aerial vex: "American and Filipino security officials have agreed to keep a U.S. mid-range missile system in the northern Philippines indefinitely to boost deterrence despite China’s expressions of alarm[.]" Well perhaps we could stay a bit longer.

Yeah: "The real problem is Tehran. 'The Three H' are not autonomous actors, but stand-ins for Iran, America’s mightiest enemy in the Greater Middle East. Iran has paid, trained, and armed them all. Let them fight and die for the greater glory of the Islamic Republic." Mullah-run Iran is the Gordian Knot.

Protection: "NATO nations fear future threats from Russia and seek to upgrade their air defenses, especially their supply of Patriot missiles. The American manufacturer of these missiles is increasing production and [to replenish stockpiles] those increases will continue after the Ukraine war is over [.]"

Strategery: "The economy is a mess, as in stagnant and shrinking. Russia has fewer friends or allies and the future looks dim. Sending troops into Ukraine (2014 and 2022), Syria (2015) and Libya (2016) has not helped solve any of the fundamental problems there but made for great propaganda." 

Bravo! We won't highlight the goal was 10,000 fewer than before: "After several dismal recruiting years, Army officials announced the service has exceeded its recruiting goals for this fiscal year." Quite the "success" on paper.

Support: "Israel said on Thursday it had secured an $8.7 billion aid package from the United States to support its ongoing military efforts and to maintain a qualitative military edge in the region."

Oh, joy: "North Korea has likely enriched enough uranium to build a “double-digit” number of bombs and is making progress in its efforts to develop more powerful and accurate missiles targeting rival South Korea[.]"

I worry because China is close to our allies and we are far. And our Navy has problems. But don't be fooled by the new-ship smell: "China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine sank pierside in the spring and the Chinese Navy tried to conceal the loss, according to two US defense officials." Via Instapundit. 

Japan is not intimidated by China's incursions into Japan's territorial waters: "A Japanese warship has sailed through the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and China for the first time, prompting Beijing to lodge complaints with Tokyo."

Germany, France, and America announced more aid for Ukraine. It looks like Biden is front-loading aid to last beyond his term. I find it hard to believe (not saying "inconceivable") Trump would cut off aid (rather than change it to loans or some other "deal"), but that seems to be the administration assumption. 

Well, sure, the EU wants to build a multi-ethnic empire of atomized subjects rather than citizens: "The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has published a report warning of the danger that 'whiteness' and 'Europeanness' pose to the European Union."

Poland seeks to be a hard target and to be worthy of America deploying troops to Poland, which is the center of gravity of American power in NATO now. 

Not every Navy problem is self-inflicted: "Shipuilder Newport News Shipbuilding, Va., informed the Department of Justice of faulty welds that may have been made intentionally on non-critical components on in-service Navy submarines and aircraft carriers, USNI News has learned."

It is interesting that the Biden officials are outraged at any suggestion that Ukraine should give up territory to Russia to end the fighting. Until February 2022, they had no problem accepting what Russia captured since 2014. I agree we shouldn't compel Ukraine to make such a deal. But what will Ukraine die for?

Corruption and the rise of Russia, China, and the Europe-spawned and America-defended West.

Those bad welds on Navy ships were due to failure to follow proper welding procedures rather than from malicious intent. That's a bit of comfort. But it also puts more responsibility on the Navy for failure to ensure proper procedures were followed. Are there any more failures in shipbuilding oversight?

Yeah: "[The Army is] under persistent surveillance, and the information that we are being presented with and that we are presenting to our adversaries is allowing our adversaries and our … commanders to learn lessons that can be used in future stages of war." More reason to limit the scope of mil-to-mil contacts.

The Long Frayed Line. Any undergrad degree other than engineering should be banned. And enforce the Honor Code. And while we're add it, figure out what we're doing wrong with flag officer education. Tip to Instapundit.

The big Afghanistan lesson is walk away after you're out of office: "The American and Iraqi governments announced Friday a phasing down of Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve, a U.S.-led military operation to counter the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria." Bilateral deal or blame to follow?

More on the Big booms: "Beirut has been rocked by huge explosions, with Israel confirming that it carried out airstrikes against Hezbollah’s main military headquarters in the Lebanese capital." I've certainly had a lot of updates to my latest Last Hamas War post that reflects Israel's shift to focusing on Hezbollah.

I'm reasonably sure Iran is checking to see if their bunkers are built to the same standards: "The Israeli military said on Saturday Israel is on high alert for a broader conflict after it claimed to have killed Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut[.]" Israel hopes Hezbollah will change course.

Can Lebanon throw off Hezbollah power because "it is clear that Hezbollah’s power is built on a foundation of false morality and what can only be described as miserable impotence in the face of Israel"? 

In regard to Israel's intensified campaign against Hezbollah: "Israel is meting out long-delayed justice not just in its own name but ours, too. And for this generous dispensation, Israel gets nothing but grief from its supposed allies." Maybe Western "peace activists" will volunteer to be "human shields" in northern Israel.

For the Baltic Defense Line and Poland's Eastern Shield: "NATO members Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland will seek European Union funding to build a network of bunkers, barriers, distribution lines and military warehouses along their borders with Russia and Belarus, Estonia’s officials said Saturday."

This offends them? "The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) strongly condemned on September 28 Israel’s 'political assassination' of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah." It is unclear if American campus activists are more or less upset than the Russians. I say rot in Hell.

Uh oh: "Nigeria is suffering multiple economic, political and security issues." Even foreign companies that kept the oil flowing have left because it's just not worth it any more. Islamists, tribes, and gangs all add to the cacophony of corruption and chaos.

An unexpected source for red lining my pucker factor: "An adverse combination of events has led to a severe shortage of aircraft maintainers for the U.S. military and commercial aviation. ... It may take up to a decade for military and commercial aviation to recruit and train their way out of the current shortages."

Part of a Complete Combined Arms Operation!

Aerial drones are the current darlings of the military writer class. I'll nod some respect their way but won't be flinging my figurative panties.

Maybe: 

Over a year ago it was obvious that drones were dominating the battlefield in Ukraine. In July 2024 a senior Ukrainian defense official once more confirmed this and observed that the dominance of drones in combat was increasing. Since the war began in early 2022 drone use has increased at the expense of traditional artillery.

They're certainly part of a complete breakfast. But "dominating"?  

I don't believe they are supplanting artillery because of intrinsic superiority. While drones seem useful, part of their so-called dominance has been caused by a decline in artillery availability. That is significant.

I'll wait to see how ramped up artillery ammo and gun barrel liner production--and new drone counter-measures--affect the post-introduction FPV drone advantage. The God of War is not so easily spurned.

One counter-measure is simply new tactics for the would-be targets:

A Ukrainian drone operator stated that Russian forces are using smaller infantry units to attack Ukrainian forces from several directions simultaneously, making it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to target them.

Area artillery fire would work against that.

I'm certainly happy that American ground forces will get FPV drones. But they supplement rather than replace weapons: 

American army and marines are planning to issue more [small Switchblade suicide drones] to their own troops for use as a standard weapon, like existing rocket launchers and portable anti-tank weapons.

FPV suicide drones just seem really familiar, eh?

Stop looking for the silver bullet weapon.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: The image was made using DALL-E 3 on Bing.

Some Damned Foolish Thing in the Horn of Africa?

Will somebody's grenadiers die in the Horn of Africa?

 

The web of alliances around the Horn of Africa could mean a wider war at the smallest spark. Powers are filling the vacuum left in the wake of regional chaos.

The enemy of my enemy: 

Egypt has announced a new security arrangement with Somalia, which would see Egyptian soldiers stationed in Somalia and cooperating directly with their Somali counterparts.

Why is Egypt interested? Well, the Houthi attacks on shipping that uses the Suez Canal is causing Egypt financial losses. So there's some blowback from our refusal to defeat the Iranian-backed Houthi interdiction campaign.

And Egypt cultivates support to oppose Ethiopia's Nile River dam that Egypt sees as a potentially existential threat.

And recall Ethiopia's outreach to the breakaway region of Somaliland that rejects the authority of the formally recognized state of "Somalia" (it's good to have the UN seat). Somalia granted landlocked Ethiopia a navy port in exchange for money and diplomatic support.

And don't forget Turkey getting involved (quoting a story):

Turkey will deploy an unspecified number of naval forces to Somalia to help the Somali Federal Government (SFG) protect its territorial waters and build the Somali forces’ capacity to counter terrorism, piracy, smuggling, and other threats.

Turkey seeks to expand its influence within its former imperial reach.

So let's see. Ethiopia is at odds with Egypt and Somalia.

Turkey is at odds with Ethiopia, Egypt (because of Libya), and the Saudis (because Turkey desires to extend its influence to old Ottoman stomping grounds in the Gulf region).

Turkey has also had outreach to Sudan for base rights.

Iran props up the Houthi in Yemen to be able to attack Gulf Arab oil exports out of the Red Sea; and opposes the Saudis and Egypt.

The Saudis back the Yemen government against the Houthis.

The Saudis back the Egyptians. 

Sudan isn't happy about Ethiopia's dam, either. Yet the degree of difficulty is increased because Sudan is splintered with internal fighting, a restive Darfur region that has been the target of government-backed genocide, and a South Sudan that successfully seceded but which hasn't seemed to lessen tensions. 

Somalis wants Somaliland and Puntland back; wants jihadis suppressed; disputes its border with Ethiopia; and has strained relationships with Kenya over the problems caused by chaos and jihadis in Somalia. Lord knows what the status of Jubaland is.

Jihadis in Somalia hate everyone.

Eritrea is at odds with Ethiopia.

Djibouti is unhappy with the Ethiopians for shifting port usage (with the fees that add up) to Somaliland.

Ethiopia has secessionist problems--Eritrea successfully seceded after a long war.

Russia sails around and spreads its usual joy trying to foment chaos that distracts and harms America. See its backing of Iran.

And what is the UAE doing in the Gulf of Aden? The UAE is an ally and rival of the Saudis.

America flails in the region. But its tough opposing jihadis in Somalia and trying to keep the area calm. So who to side with when the chips are down? Maybe if we didn't flail, locals wouldn't arm up and seek potential allies.

So:

Side A                                     Side B

Ethiopia                                   Egypt

Iran                                          Somalia

                                                 Eritrea

                                                 Djibouti

                                                 Sudan

Turkey                                     Turkey 

Saudi Arabia                            Saudi Arabia

UAE                                         UAE

And oh yeah, America, France, and China have military facilities in Djibouti.  

We'll see if some damned foolish thing in the Horn of Africa sparks a regional war, eh? Who knows who else is pulled in.

Have a super sparkly day.

PRE-PUBLICATION UPDATE: I found this ISW assessment after writing and scheduling this post:

External powers are taking advantage of conflicts that have emerged in the Horn of Africa to advance their economic, military, and political objectives in the Horn of Africa and the greater Red Sea area at the expense of the interests of the local populations and the United States.

Can't argue with that.

As an additional aside, I was intending to put this in Substack until I noticed I'd already written a post there on this region. So decided to keep this longer look here. A peril of posting on two sites. But perhaps sharing how the sausage gets made isn't that interesting.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

It's Time to Recognize Carriers as Supporting Players

 Please inform the carrier strike groups that the Pips are no less important than Gladys Knight.

 

Good question:

Are we reaching a point in which the surface fleet, with the long-range Maritime Strike Tomahawk missile, will become the preferred platform-weapon combination for U.S. anti-ship warfare? Could this subsequently shift the role of the aircraft carrier and its air wing to being the supporting platforms rather than the supported?

The author answers yes and yes.

Surface warfare ships aren't just the Pips in the Gladys Knight carrier-centric act. I've been highlighting the need to transition to this way of thinking all this century:

The question of whether large aircraft carriers deserve to be the center of our future naval strategy is a fundamental question that has not been adequately explored. Network-centric warfare signals the beginning of the end for the United States Navy's large aircraft carriers. They will lose their value as an instrument of forward presence and become valuable targets that, if struck, will encourage an enemy at the outset of war by apparently demonstrating that American technological prowess can be nullified and beaten. In the long run, large aircraft carriers will add little to most offensive missions and will absorb scarce resources and assets simply evading attack rather than striking the enemy and contributing to victory.

The carrier in the supporting role for sea control missions is clearly here, I think, given network-centric warfare. Let's act on this before burning and sinking carriers demonstrate that carriers are no longer the apex predator of blue water navies.

Of course, power projection in peacetime is a different issue. But those two missions too often are conflated, making the debate fruitless on those terms. 

Indeed, in this article on China's new big carrier reigniting the carrier debate by allowing people to say "But China wants them" as their argument, the article specifically talks about "power projection" missions. That's not the issue. I'm fully on board that mission. A role in sea control is the issue. 

So how many carriers do we need for power projection? And what do we need for sea control? Let's have a seapower debate rather than yet another fruitless carrier debate.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I created the image with the imgflip AI.

The Best Force Protection is Winning

Compassion for our troops is fine. Our troops are citizens and not subjects. But there's a reason the Army calls (called?) itself the Green Machine. Troops are cogs in a victory machine. Undue compassion for the troops that undermines victory is false compassion that will get more troops killed.

 

I am horrified at the implications of what the Sergeant Major of the USMC is setting out: 

Can a junior Marine question whether their training is best preparing them to fight? Are there times for individuality in an organization known for its strict adherence to conformity? Is there a life after the Corps, according to the Corps itself?

In "Sustaining the Transformation," the answer to those questions is "yes."

"I know it's difficult for someone who may read this; they may be thinking the only focus is to make sure your only mission is to ensure that the Marine is ready to fight," Sergeant Major of the Marine Corps Carlos Ruiz told Military.com in a recent interview. "Yes, agreed. But these are not pieces of furniture. These are people."

That attitude will get Marines killed:

This scene from Glory is instructive:

[See video above]

When I saw this with my then-wife, she was horrified that the colonel was so "mean" to the recruit in the reloading scene. That said a lot given that she really liked Broderick. I explained to her that it would have been no kindness to the recruit to be "nice." I explained there are many ways to die in battle--even when you don't make mistakes--and your own lack of training is an avoidable way to die. Avoid it.

As I wrote in 1997--and presented to a largely Army audience that year--about such false compassion as applied to the Army, citing Iraq's force protection obsession (from fear rather than compassion in that case):

Our soldiers' lives are indeed valuable, and our country's insistence that we minimize risks to them is laudable (as well as being necessary due to the small size of the Army). Undue concern, however, is false compassion and, as was the case for Iraq in 1980, could result in even greater casualties in a prolonged war should we refuse - because of the prospect of battle deaths - to seize an opportunity for early victory.

Will Marines be taught the real difference between initiative and disobedience?

Will Marines who go on to a new life after the Corps be as willing to fight and die for their comrades in battle? 

I just don't think this is going to work. That is, if "work" means winning. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Crush First, Then Befriend

You win a war by crushing your enemy and then being generous to get them to realign with you. You can't take a shortcut by skipping the "crushing" part.

One faction in the White House wants to restrict Ukraine's ability to attack Russian territory:

Officials in certain corners of the administration have told the Ukrainians that the U.S. will eventually want to reset relations with Moscow and lifting the restrictions could upend those efforts.

Ah, Reset 2.0! The first was great! 

The idea that we can gain Russian gratitude by inflicting only a small defeat on Russia is wrong. If Russia fails to conquer Ukraine they'll blame America regardless of how good a ceasefire deal we get for Russia.

And the conceit of thinking we can finely calibrate the outcome of a war as if it is some precision machinery with known parameters of performance is insanely dangerous. If you aren't trying to win as quickly as possible, you are letting the enemy try to win, no matter how long it takes them.

Further, I think the foundation of this type of thinking is the mistaken notion that the Treaty of Versailles was too harsh on Germany. That's nonsense. We finally created a democratic and allied Germany by bombing their cities, starving their people with blockade, and marching into the heart of Germany after destroying their armies.

Ah, Smart Diplomacy!®

The urge to reset is plausible given that I do question Biden's commitment to defeating Russia.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Gives Kursk Another Shot

The fight for Ukraine's Kursk salient revived. But with no end in sight, a third winter of war approaches.

Despite Putin's feigned indifference to the fate of Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory, Russia used the forces it had been massing to strike back at Ukraine's salient. The battle continues. And Ukraine complicates the fight with an attack that apparently seeks to outflank the primary Russian axis of advance into the western flank of the salient. But nothing dramatic has developed.

On the Donbas front, Russia attacks but the efforts seem weaker, at least in part from the diversion of forces to the Kursk front. The biggest drama there is the slow Russian approach to the small city of Pokrovsk. The south is mostly quiet all the way to the Kherson front.

Nothing dramatic has taken place on the Black Sea lately; but Ukraine and Russia keep up strategic warfare behind enemy lines. Ukraine's long-range suicide drones have made some spectacular strikes. How much that affects the fighting at the front or Russian morale is unclear to me. And we'll see how well prepared Ukraine is for Russia's attempts to freeze them into submission this winter.

And while Russia keeps portraying itself as a behemoth with limitless manpower supplies, as their so-called military expansion orders "confirms," the Russian people aren't clamoring at the recruiter gates, apparently:

The Kremlin appears to be reorganizing Russia's decentralized, regional volunteer recruitment campaigns into a federal effort, indicating that Russia is struggling to meet the manpower demands of its war in Ukraine despite previous claims that the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast caused a spike in Russia's volunteer recruitment.

Once more we shall see who rearms faster over this third full winter. And will either or both conduct winter offensives?

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E 3 on Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Give in to the Dark Side and subscribe. Hell, share links! I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.

And a second assassination attempt on Trump. No word on when the "national conversation" on inciting and justifying violence commences.

Emotional support hotline: "Despite the fighting in Ukraine and the substantial support Ukraine received from the United States, the Russians want to remain in touch. The Americans are often asked if they are involved in secret Ukrainian operations against Russia and the response is usually a shrug or a denial."

I don't think Ukraine's Kursk incursion has restored maneuver to this battlefield. Maneuver never went away. But Ukraine lacks the resources to exploit the penetration and lacks a significant objective within reach to capture. It's a nice ground-level Doolittle Raid (or Trenton and Princeton, if you prefer).

At best you could say the LPD is an affordable alternative to expensive full-deck amphibious warfare ships--for projecting ground forces abroad. Super carriers are a different question altogether.

Iran represses women. To be fair, the theocracy repress everyone. Tip to Instapundit.

FONOPs ares nice: "Germany sailed two warships through the Taiwan Strait on Friday in its first transit of the disputed waters in more than two decades, as Berlin seeks to increase its defense engagement in the Asia-Pacific region." But can its navy dominate the Baltic Sea?

Troop rotation: "Soldiers with the 101st Airborne Division are deploying to the Middle East and 3rd Infantry Division troops are headed to Europe, Army officials announced Friday." Is it significant that the 101st's helicopter equipped aviation brigade is replacing an infantry brigade? Could sink small boats ...

Remembering the end of the caliphate. That was good. Islam "tolerated" Christians and Jews as second-class (at best!) subjects who knew their place. That's aside from African slaves. Go ahead and argue North America, Europe, or Asia should be controlled by a single authority and treat minorities similarly.

Russia informs Abkhazia that it should absolutely know its place and act accordingly.

Don't tell me that casualties are only a Ukrainian problem: "In response to the problematic situation, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin recently introduced new decrees aimed at encouraging citizens to enlist in the military." In the 1980s, everyone thought smaller Iraq would break. Jihad-fueled Iran broke.

But right now its decimated: "Russia is poised to begin a long-term military reconstitution program designed to restore losses from its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to potentially expand the force beyond 2022 levels." The shape of reconstitution is unknown.

I'm just happy to retreat without drama: "The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Niger is complete, an American official said Monday." But hey, it's Niger's right to go it alone. Good luck with that.

I never assume stealth is permanent. But is this true? Or operationally significant, if true? "Chinese researchers claim that by using the radiation emitted by SpaceX's Starlink constellation, they can detect enemy stealth fighter jets."

Potemkin Expansion? "Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the country’s military to increase its number of troops by 180,000 to a total of 1.5 million, as Moscow’s military action in Ukraine drags on for more than 2 ½ years." I have my doubts about the truthfulness of this announcement.

Right now it is focused on illegal fishing--not land grabs: "The United States, Australia, India and Japan are planning joint coast guard and maritime police patrols amid growing Chinese activity in the region[.]"

Germany de-industrializes. Tip to Instapundit. Odd that Germany decided to belatedly implement the Morganthau Plan

F-16s in Ukraine.  

Israel's quasi-war with Iran: "Iran is disturbed and unnerved by the continuing assassinations of Iran backed Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. This is in addition to the numerous key scientists, engineers and managers associated with the Iranian effort to build a nuclear bomb."

From the "Well, Duh" files: If China disrupts Taiwan's communications, it could paralyze Taiwan's  defense effort. Will Taiwan's allies restore communications in a war? And prepare ahead of time to do it?

"Modern" wars are wars of attrition? No. Countries that can replace losses can wage wars of attrition. Territorial depth relative to the enemy's capabilities affects that issue. But sure, short wars are mostly an unattainable ideal. I didn't think Russia could attain one.

Possible? Maybe. Likely? LOL! "Can a sixth-generation fighter jet cost less than previous generations of fighter jets? U.S. Air Force officials say it’s possible."

Having experienced ... issues ... with Air Force close air support commitment, the Army wants its own satellite substitutes if Space Force follows suit: "In a bid to revolutionize unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operations, the US Army has patented a new technology that can keep its drones in the air forever."

I've been very concerned: "Recent Chinese maritime activity around the Second Thomas Shoal marks a potentially new and more aggressive stage in China’s campaign to extend control over the South China Sea." Escalating to direct, open combat with China isn't the best solution, eh?

Is the shipping industry ready for containerized missile warfare? Yes. Q-Ships? The article highlights the  Mark 70 Mod 1 Payload Delivery System. I've been on the concept for at least fifteen years. And recently noted the significance of the Mk70 PDS. It might even be a stepping stone to friggin' air defense lasers. 

The Ukrainians have added manpower but need artillery ammo and armored vehicles--especially tanks they can't produce--to make effective units rather than cannon fodder light infantry formations.

The Philippine Coast Guard is grossly outmatched by the China Coast Guard (and its compliant and large naval militia). I noted the looming defeat.

Georgia is sliding closer to Russia. We prevented Russia from taking Georgia. We can't prevent Georgians from giving their country to Russia. But we can help pro-West Georgians resist.

Why so many Ukrainians resist a "land for peace" deal. Because it's their land and because they wouldn't get peace with Russia, is my guess.

No high-tech on the high altitude India-China border: "the ongoing border disputes remain unresolved. There has been some violence, and deaths. Conventional weapons were not used. Both sides relied on soldiers armed with clubs, rocks and righteous fists. Both sides want to avoid a shooting war."

Interesting: "This year Ukraine is on track to produce three million drones. These consist of armed and unarmed models of many different designs." Ukraine even exports some to earn money.

China's rulers are wrecking their economy to maintain control. That breaks the "deal" with China's subjects of prosperity for submission. That leaves force to maintain control. Will force mostly be applied to China's subjects or China's neighbors?

Expand the fleet? Keep existing ships ready? Hold your horses! "The Navy doesn’t have enough skilled sailors to keep its warships combat-ready, according to the latest in a series of government reports that broadly question the fleet’s readiness at a time of growing military tension between the U.S. and China."

The Navy's old home is putting out the welcome mat: "The U.S. will support Manila’s plan to build a new naval pier at a Philippine naval base in Subic Bay."

Opportunity: "The EU may be prepping to lend Ukraine up to $45 billion — with or without the US" It's an EU wet dream to see America walk away from NATO and leave the field to Brussels.

I'm worried: "The list of American security agencies stained by bureaucratic incompetence, dreadful leadership and outright political corruption just keeps getting longer." By nature, I want to trust our security leaders. Needlessly losing Afghanistan without objecting was the final hit. Earn my trust back.

Sh*t got real: "The Philippines would expect US intervention should China take the BRP Sierra Madre warship." You remember that line in the sea, Sierra Madre.

When China starts talking about the good old days when Okinawa was a vassal of China, don't insult my intelligence by telling me the talk is really about loosening Japan's commitment to Taiwan rather than an early declaration of a future claim. Those dashes don't get added to maps on their own, you know.

Russia's military expansion. I'll ask again if it is real or a Potemkin expansion? If Russia can frighten us into retreat with paper expansion orders made public, they would get away with a tremendous bluff.

Ah, the game of thrones goes on in the proto-imperial European Union! The useless--except to its royalty--EU: "From the outset, the EEC/EU was a luxurious parasite within the protection of NATO[.]" They want to erase the prefix, of course. But is it "doomed"?  Die! With festering boils, just die.

Paging Mr. Hezbollah: "Israel reportedly executed the attack by planting one-to-two ounces of explosive material and remote triggers inside a batch of Taiwanese-made pagers en route to Lebanon." Yet you probably scoffed at my concern China might do something like that to our aircraft carriers.

Is commercial ship traffic in the Red Sea despite Houthi attacks proof the Houthi are ineffective? Food for thought. But how much traffic is diverted, increasing costs? And whose ships are using the Suez Canal? Are only some countries unaffected? But Iran's supplies to the Houthi are being partially interdicted.

China has been pushing Japan and Japan is getting tired of it: "The helicopter destroyer JS Kaga, which resembles a small carrier, is scheduled Oct. 5 to Nov. 18 for flight tests with F-35B Lightning II multirole jets off San Diego, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force announced Sept. 10."

Copying Europe to our peril. It's not about eating pets. It's a national security issue. Legal immigration of screened people in needed numbers? Great! An open border for all, including criminals and terrorists in some unknown but dangerous number given the volume? Are we that stupid or self-destructive?

Yet Britain prioritizes arresting people for allegedly mean social media posts: "as of 2020, the UK’s MI5 has over 40,000 suspects on a terror watchlist, the vast majority of which are related to extremist Islamist terrorism."

So we need to outsource our Red Sea problem to India's navy? Their navy certainly isn't squeamish about opening fire.

It's funny. When America helps a good faction abroad, critics say we counter-productively promote a "rally around the flag" effect against America. When Iran does it here, that effect apparently doesn't apply. But I stand partially corrected on that unrequited love thing.

Recalling the Second Battle of Fallujah twenty years ago. A second battle was required because we believed we could have "tame" jihadis secure the city for us. Don't forget in case we risk losing Iraq again.

Ursula von der Leyen may not know much about job competence, but she sure knows power in the EU game of thrones: "The power grab was complete."

Earth is getting a new moon, 2024 PT5, for a month (tip to Instapundit):

Naval mines in the Black Sea.

Pakistan: "Islamic terrorists and various rebel groups in Pakistan killed about a thousand people in 2023. Half the victims were security personnel while the rest were civilian bystanders. The usual political chaos in Pakistan is expected to abate somewhat after national elections are held in February 2024." Ah, "chaos".

Please red line your pucker factor accordingly. 

Maybe train to fight instead: "At Fort Liberty, thousands of soldiers who were trained on the Army’s antiterrorism policy saw slides that labeled several legitimate nonprofits as terrorist organizations – a blunder that went on for seven years [before publicity prompted the Army to take action to stop that.]"

I thought the plan was to go to all missiles: "The U.S. Air Force’s top special operations officer says AC-130J Ghostrider gunships will continue being armed with 105mm howitzers for the time being, though this could still change in future." 

Usual suspects are complaining that Israel might start a war with Hezbollah. Yet nobody mentions the United Nations force--UNIFAIL--that is "intended" to prevent Hezbollah from packing rockets into southern Lebanon. And God help us, some want the same formula for Gaza.  

Yeah, questions about aid to Ukraine probably aren't as polarizing as social media-based analysis implies--which is true for all issues that over-emphasize social media as a proxy for American opinion. There are divisions. But America should be the arsenal of democracy. Our democracy might need an arsenal, too.

The EU's immigration pact is falling apart as its bad effects reverberate. Of note: "Much to the chagrin of dedicated bureaucrats in Brussels, the EU is less like a federal state and more like a federation of states." That's why they want to remove the prefix of their quasi-imperial entity.

Strategery: "After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russia was subject to international economic sanctions. This had some unfortunate side effects for other nations, like India, which has long been a major customer for Russian weapons. That trading relationship is another casualty of the Ukraine War."

We'll see if this survives Afghan tribal greed and opportunity: "This month construction of the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) natural gas pipeline finally began." Interesting that India gains influence in Central Asia and that Pakistan helps.

Yin and yang: The Virginia SSGN program is over-budget; and the Navy is going big on expanding sub construction capabilities. 

Thank you Israel. But we should have relentlessly pursued him and killed him decades ago: "Hezbollah commander involved in US embassy and Marine Corps bombings is killed in targeted Israeli strike[.]" But Hezbollah got the Iran friends and family discount.

No longer subliminal aggression: "While previously, Beijing sought to maintain plausible deniability when using its maritime militia to coerce southeast Asian nations, it is now adopting a more direct and aggressive strategy, that can escalate quickly using warships more directly in confrontations."

Ukraine's strategic warfare against Russian logistics continues: "Ukrainian forces conducted another successful drone strike against Russian missile and ammunition storage facilities as well as a mobile radar system in Russia overnight on September 20 to 21."

So very conflicted: "In the African country of Mali, Russian Wagner Group mercenaries went looking for some low-risk, high-paying work during July 2024. What they got was a massacre that left all the Wagner Group mercs murdered by an Islamic terrorist group called JNIM." Mali: Somalia without an ocean view.

Well, for Ukraine this is better than overt help: "When Ukrainians examine the debris left by detonated Russian bombs and missiles, they often find Chinese components. [China denies it supplies Russia,] but there is no way for the Ukrainians to prove the Chinese are lying." China expects Russian gratitude.