Is Turkey a Lost Cause or Just Temporarily Troubled?

Turkey under Erdogan clearly doesn't want to be a NATO ally. Can we endure him until NATO can save the relationship?

Turkey's S-400 acquisition from Russia is a middle finger directed at NATO:

A NATO ally should not acquire a major weapon system from the leading threat to the alliance.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consistently brushed aside American concerns regarding the S-400, and a failure to respond assertively could leave Ankara and others with the impression that they can ignore Washington with few consequences.

Why Erdogan would do this when his relations with Russia are strained (with more strains to come in Syria) and when Turkey is stretched trying to regain influence in former Ottoman territory despite the opposition of those former subjects is mind boggling:

Are the Turks sending Syrian mercenaries to support Azerbaijan in the fighting with Armenia? Russia supports Armenia and has troops there. Turkey and Russia are already on opposite sides in Syria and Libya where Turkish-paid Syrians fight. Turkey is in a confrontation with fellow NATO member Greece at sea, And Turkey has pushed away once-ally Israel as well as alienating America enough to lose the F-35. Just how much foreign trouble does Erdogan want?  And can Erdogan cover the checks he is writing?

How do we signal our displeasure to punish Erdogan and ride out the troubles until Erdogan is gone and we can repair the relationship?

UPDATE: NATO states are tiring of Turkey's behavior:

The United States is pushing NATO countries to work with Turkey in hopes of healing divisions that have seen Ankara move closer to Russia, but at least one of those allies is bracing for more turmoil.

Greece in particular. But France isn't happy. And those aren't the only ones concerned about Erdogan.

The King of Battle and Its New Princes

In the age of great power competition, American ground forces will again face artillery barrages and not just the occasional rocket and mortar strikes during the COIN era.

A reminder from Russia's Kavkaz-2020 exercise that drone swarms are not just a threat to our ground forces from direct attack but from their ability to spot for Russian artillery:

According to reports, the drones flew at altitudes of one hundred to five thousand meters, targeting enemy assets deep behind the lines. The swarm, acting in unison, spotted mobile military units to target, but significantly, the swarms were used to enhance intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and not for strike. Russian forces have shown in Ukraine that their drones are tightly integrated with artillery, especially multiple rocket launchers such as the Smerch and Uragan systems. These weapons almost annihilated two Ukrainian battalions in minutes at Zelenopillya in July 2014, when Ukrainian brigades marshalling for offensive operations were overflown by Russian drones. Moments later, they were targeted in a pre-emptive multi-barrel rocket attack with devastating results. It should be noted that Russia continues to maintain an advantage over the United States and NATO in terms of both artillery and rocket munitions and when coupled with drone units are a cause for considerable concern. 

I had to change my underwear when I listened to this presentation about Russian drone-assisted artillery in Ukraine's Donbas. 

As I noted in the last data dump, the Army is well aware of the threat:

Command posts are missile magnets the way they emit and the Army wants to break them apart to operate in separate places to reduce vulnerability. They'd best be mobile, too. And armored.

We may need the drone combat air patrols I advocated in Army magazine to protect forward Army troops from that threat.

Friends are Nice to Have

Allies remain necessary even if we have the determination to act alone if necessary.

This is sound advice in an era of great power competition:

America can't risk alienating allies in the new era of great power competition, which will require strengthening military partnerships in a global defensive chain aimed at maintaining an "asymmetric advantage" over China and Russia, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Tuesday.

"Our global constellation of allies and partners remains an enduring strength that our competitors and adversaries simply cannot match," he said in remarks to the Atlantic Council that rehashed many of the themes he has stressed in what could be the waning days of his tenure at the Pentagon.

The U.S. can't afford to "take our long-standing network of relationships for granted," including relationships with the often-overlooked smallest partners, such as Malta, Papua New Guinea and Palau, Esper said.

Looking ahead to a China threat I wrote much the same thing a decade ago, emphasizing the need for hard power to keep allies confident in American aid:

China wants those countries to believe that [America is too weak to help allies close to China]. But China is not destined to surpass us in power. Which means that China won't grow so powerful that countries can't arm up to balance China's power.

But for all those neighbors to be willing to stand up to China's power, they have to be confident that we have the power and determination to use it against China and to be confident that other potential partners won't stop absorbing some of China's power by making deals with China to ally with Peking. If these countries don't have confidence that we will help them, they'll cut a deal with China to protect themselves and turn away from us.

So we have to be careful about maintaining our power in the Pacific and maintaining our reputation for supporting allies and fighting until we win. If any nation, like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Australia, or Vietnam think that they can't count on us for effective military support, they'll withdraw from the potential balancing coalition against China. And once one country defects, the power potential arrayed against China will drop enough to perhaps push another country to defect and align with China rather than with us.

Thus, even a reduction in our military power that may seem marginal to us could be what tips the system against us in a cascade of defections, causing a dramatic drop in coalition power arrayed against China, and denying us the capability of operating in the western Pacific. Instead of being a rear base to support our allies against China, Guam would become an outpost as we are pushed back to the Aleutians-Hawaii line for our line of defense against Chinese naval power.

Keeping allies is as much about denying their power to enemies as it is about adding their power to our side. Make the effort to maintain those relationships and forge new ones.

Is Russia Just Right for a Target?

China's Xi is talking tough. If China wants to establish a bad-ass reputation that demands respect, should Taiwan worry? Or should Russia?

Applied to today, Xi is advocating for what is generally known as “peace through strength.” But his rhetoric suggests that China will not only not back down from a conflict, but could actually seek one out to win the “respect” it desires. Particularly concerning in that regard is his emphasis on how much the Chinese military learned from the Korean War, which he describes as a painful trial-by-fire necessary to advance China’s military modernization.

Perhaps China will seize Taiwanese islands as a shot across the bow designed to intimidate Taiwan, America, and Japan:

So Xi Jinping will try to scare America with the prospect of war with China? And this will include displaying an American Army regimental standard captured in the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir in the Korean War? Well, we might want to remind China that it took 200,000 to 600,000 dead Chinese troops to capture that flag. Although Xi might be talking "war" to cover the quick seizure of Taiwan's ill-defended Pratas Islands, as I mentioned in updates in this post. Might that be China's threatened "retaliation" for American arms sales to Taiwan?

That might make a good response to American arms sales. But what kind of respect do you get for such a small win over Taiwan if your goal is respect? Especially when it won't stop American arms sales?

And yes, China would have to stop fast after taking those islands unless it wants to risk a bigger war:

Japan and the United States on Monday began air, sea and land exercises around Japan in a show of force in the face of increased Chinese military activity in the region.

The Keen Sword exercise is the first big drill since Yoshihide Suga became Japan’s prime minister last month with a vow to continue the military build-up aimed at countering China, which claims Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea.

So Taiwan's small islands are too small of a target to make China look bad-ass. And America is too strong relative to China to risk taking on directly and revealing China to be far from bad-ass.

Perhaps Russia would make a better target if Xi wants to gain "respect" for China's power.

UPDATE: I agree that great power war is not obsolete. 

And sure, a rising China and an incumbent power America worried about losing number one status does make the risk of war between the two real.

But America isn't necessarily going to lose its top status if China's rise falters. And America and China are far apart geographically, which reduces the friction.

Honestly, the faltering Russia should worry more about the rising and possibly faltering China that actually has major territorial claims on Russian territory.

They're One Story Away From Defending Their Precious Bodily Fluids

Russians are under every bed these days, apparently, according to Democrats and their media allies:

No one should have any illusions about Vladimir Putin, whose authoritarian regime invades foreign countries and poisons critics. Russia has meddled in Western elections, including here in the United States in 2016 and, per a recent briefing from Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, again in 2020. (Russia has obtained voter information.)

But the left’s overwhelming focus on Russia has taken on the trappings of a conspiracy theory with a comforting monocausal explanation for everything: Russia did it.

 

The Democratic Party's transformation is as amazing as it was sudden. Pity Democrats didn't have a fraction of that attitude during the Reagan era. 

It would be funny except that Democrats and their media allies do 99% of the work for Russia's pathetically small and ham-handed efforts to sow chaos in America. "Useful idiots" doesn't begin to describe them.  

What's next for their obsession?

 

Why Democrats haven't turned on Obama for his awareness of Russia's laughable 2016 election interference and refusal to do anything to stop the Russians beyond yelling "Halt! Or I'll yell 'halt' again" is beyond me.

But the fact is, Obama knew the Russian effort was ridiculously ineffective on its own and did not justify more than what he did. How was he to predict the sudden Democratic Party obsession with their precious social media fluids?

The Democrats with their sudden obsession really do play a large supporting role in preventing America from prying Russia from China's side. Although Putin has the starring role, of course.

Does Putin Have the Horses?

Does Russia have the capabilities to take Belarus?

Belarus protesters are still upset that Lukashenko stole the election:

Factory workers, students and business owners in Belarus on Monday began a strike to demand that authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko resign after more than two months of continuing mass protests following a disputed election.

Most state-run enterprises continued to operate despite the strike, which was called by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. But analysts said it helped mobilize opposition supporters for a new round of confrontation with authorities, which poses a significant challenge for Lukashenko, who has run the country for 26 years and until recently has been able to successfully stifle dissent.

Russia looms over their actions. Russia is overstretched already with interventions in Libya, Syria, and Ukraine on top of the lingering threat of China in the Far East. Would Russia add Belarus to that list?

I think Putin would act given the geography:

As we look at the Russian threat, Belarus should be a major subject of study. Belarus is a former Soviet state whose independence puts a sizable buffer between NATO Poland and Russia.

And as I've noted for both the defense of the NATO Baltic states and friendly but non-NATO Ukraine, Belarus in Russian hands (or friendly to Russia) threatens the eastern flanks of the Baltic states and the northern flank of Ukraine.

If Russia is denied access to Belarus bases and territory, Putin has a harder time threatening NATO or even defending their Kaliningrad enclave.

And if Putin's paranoia is to be believed, Russia needs just such a buffer to keep the NATO panzers from sweeping across the steppe to the gates of Moscow.

Belarus is essentially a road between Russia and NATO.

And the paranoia. Don't forget the paranoia. 

The question is whether the Russian action would be successful. If it comes to a Russian military intervention, hiring mercenaries or accepting a "frozen conflict wouldn't cut it. Russia would need to go in big and take over the country fast. Does Russia have the money and men to match their motive? Would this be where Russia's personally loyal army comes in handy?

Is the threat of insurrection, rebellion, or secession really high enough for Putin to worry [enough to justify his new National Guard]?

Or would this new law allow the National Guard to take on police power in a newly acquired region (like Belarus)--freshly annexed after Russia invades--perhaps to force submission by people less happy than Crimeans to be absorbed into the proto-police state that Putin is rebuilding from its peak Soviet days?

Heck, the National Guard might do the invading if the regular army balks at carrying out that order or if Putin wants to seriously deny invading in defiance of reality.

And how will Russians react to Putin's decision to act if body bags start to flow back to Mother Russia?

A Moronic French Kiss

American influence in the Middle East and North Africa is just fine. But I welcome French interest.

This is--and forgive my use of a highly technical term--moronic: 

It is now clear that France is seeking to fill the void created by the gradual demise of America’s influence in the Middle East and North Africa.

One, France has traditionally had influence in North Africa and the eastern Mediterranean Sea because of relations with former French colonies.

As for the idea that America's influence in the Middle East is dying? Really? 

Arab states are making peace with Israel and lining up to oppose Iran, with Iraq finally working harder to resist Iran. That's the result of gradual demise of American influence in the region? Is Israel alienated? Saudi Arabia? Both have closer relations with America than in the recent past.

Sure, Iran and Turkey aren't bright spots, but that's on them for embracing Islamism of the Shia and Sunni variety, respectively.

Some people seem to have oddly tied American influence to the presence of 100,000 plus American ground troops even though that was an anomaly after 9/11 and American troop presence is getting down to a lower level of normal. 

And given that Turkey is a NATO country, how is French interest in opposing Turkey in the Mediterranean Sea reflective of anybody's influence in the Middle East? 

I'm sorry, I couldn't continue reading the love letter to France article after that first sentence. Maybe it got better. I'll never know.

Cast a Giant Casualty Tolerance Shadow

Russia is casualty averse.

This story isn't about this post topic but is important for the topic:

A recent Izvestiya article observed that the USSR made a priority of showing its wartime allies watching the parade that the “war had not exhausted and bled the USSR dry: that, on the contrary, it had acquired the most powerful weapon – the psychology of victors… An army consisting of such people can be a terrifying enemy and an effective ally.” 

Yes, we were supposed to believe that Russia shrugged off 25-30 million dead defending their country against actual Nazis, and would have no problem doing that again for any war of conquest.

Mind you, during the Cold War the communists could have ordered their military to war and counted on their police state enforcing a high-casualty war of conquest against NATO.

But now in an incomplete police state? Not so much as I've argued:

One big difference between Putin's Russia and the Soviet Union no matter how tragic Putin believes the demise of the USSR was is that the Russian people are no longer up to suffering 30 million casualties to win a war.

Putin can try to revive that myth, but it isn't happening.

So Russia uses "hybrid" warfare to perpetuate "frozen conflicts" emphasizing mercenaries doing the actual dying that minimize Russian military casualties, but at the expensive of decisive conquest of territory? I don't think rulers deliberately choose to drag out wars and fight them in ways that rule out decisive quick victory.

But hey, Putin can always rattle his nuclear sabre to be scary. Right?

What Do the Chinese Believe?

China wants Taiwan and I think it is dangerous to assume China "knows" it can't win a war to capture Taiwan.

No:

Once more China is threatening Taiwan with invasion. More forces (ballistic missiles, aircraft, ships and troops) are being moved to the coastal areas facing Taiwan. Any invasion has to deal with Taiwan Strait, a 300-kilometer-wide water barrier between China and Taiwan. China would not risk war with Taiwan unless their attack were a near sure thing. [emphasis added] 

I need to correct that: China would not risk invading Taiwan unless they believe their attack was a near sure thing:

Just as I've worried that we'll let our military hollow out as we cut our defense spending and leave our leaders falsely believing we have a fully capable military, I've also worried that Chinese leaders will believe their more powerful military is all-powerful. ...

China is a danger because their chest is swelling over their regained military stature. And while their actual power will help decide the outcome of a war, their beliefs about their power will help decide whether they start a war.

I liken it to new soldiers just out of boot camp. You enter probably out of shape and a pure civilian. You endure and come out part of the mean green fighting machine, with new muscles and the new skills of killing planted in you. You think you are a bad-ass SEAL Team 6-level killing machine in your still-crisp BDUs (or whatever they are called now).

But you are not a killing machine. You aren't even a cog in the killing machine. You are just the first rough stamping of a cog that will eventually be sanded and polished into a part of the killing machine. I remember our drill sergeants telling us that we need to avoid being full of ourselves when we leave basic training and move on to a new base or go back on the block. We are stronger than when we arrived. Do not mistake that for being stronger than other people, they warned. If we do, we'll get our butts kicked.

China has gotten out of world power basic training. Let's hope they don't throw a punch before they realize how much farther that they need to go to be actually powerful. 

China's military power is unprecedented in world history. Will the Chinese civilian and military rulers really appreciate their limits? Will the Chinese look at their past difficulties that the initial Strategypage post goes over and say, "Well, those wars took place before we became bad-ass. This time is different!"

And don't you dare tell me how China's vaunted long-range planning will keep them from making that kind of mistake.

I mean, how many rulers through history who started a war believed they would lose that war when they started the war?

The possibility that China might start a war in the belief--whether right or wrong--is one reason I want a bigger Army role in plans to deal with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, as I wrote in Military Review. 

UPDATE: Well, that's what Xi said.

Formalizing Russia's Vassal Status?

Putin doesn't rule out a formal alliance with China. If he does that it is an admission that Russia is too weak to protect its Far East from China.

Bold strategy, Putin:

Asked during a video conference with international foreign policy experts Thursday whether a military union between Moscow and Beijing was possible, Putin replied that “we don’t need it, but, theoretically, it’s quite possible to imagine it.”

Russia and China have hailed their “strategic partnership,” but so far rejected any talk about the possibility of their forming a military alliance.

 

Russia has quite the dilemma with China. Russia owns large swathes of Chinese territory in an era when China feels it is gaining the power to reverse their "century of humiliation."

Russia thought it bought time with a policy of appeasement to be able to face China:

Russia has spent the post-Soviet era trying to please China by--until recently--selling arms to China that China then copied, and coming to agreements with China on the border that give China room to push for more one day.

Perhaps one day rather soon.

And Russia complains loudly about American and NATO plots against Mother Russia when in fact NATO in Europe has mostly disarmed while America was happy to not think about Russia much.

From our point of view, this makes no sense. Can't Russia see that the West is no threat while China is the threat? Why not work with us?

Well, from the Russian point of view, Russia is acting very logical.

Russian power collapsed in 1991, leaving their Far East vulnerable to China whose power soon began to rise even as Russia's power continued to erode.

Was it logical for Russia to openly treat China as a threat and cozy up to the West that was disarming and never going to help Russia defend the Amur River line?

Not really, when you think about it. Yes, in the end, Russia will have to recognize that China is a threat and not NATO. But we're far from whenever "the end" is and until then Russia can't afford to anger China.

So Russia sells weapons designed to point China's modernizing military out to sea against America, Taiwan, and Japan rather than against Russia.

This isn't just clever politics. This is a form of appeasement.

And who knows, as I argued in the last link in the above quote, the Russians probably thought that maybe Russia's effort to engineer a U.S.-China war--by sharing "sensitive military technologies that helped significantly boost China’s military potential, " as Putin boasted in that initial article--would take out two birds with one stone.

But Russia failed in their race against time and had to admit their conventional military cannot protect Russia from a land threat--which only China poses despite all the Russian noise about the nonexistent NATO threat.

That aggressive stance against NATO was an effort to disguise Russia's policy of appeasement to buy time. An alliance with China would indicate that Russia lost their race and--despite my recent hope to the contrary--needs to give China even more to avoid losing the Far East by force.

How long can Russia hold off China by dangling such an alliance before Xi? What would China demand as their price for an alliance to keep quiet about their lost territory in Russia?

Let's see if this pays off for Russia.

Justice--Delayed

It's election time:

 

I'll vote for Trump's reelection, after being unable to pull the lever for him in 2016. I would like to thank the Democrats and their media allies for making this choice so easy. 

Many Republicans joke that in the face of Trump that all the Democrats have to do to win is not act crazy. But the scary thing that has become clear is that Democratic voters want their party to act crazy. Indeed, the Democrats appear to be stoking chaos and violence with a thinly veiled threat to America that unless the voters give power to Democrats that the chaos and violence will continue. It's just blackmail.

Trump must be reelected because I refuse to reward Democrats for their unhinged, often illegal, and dangerous levels of  24/7 turn-it-to-11 Resistance to the president; their insane Nazi/Confederate/Racist/OrangeManBad slanders against Republican candidates and even Trump voters; and their destruction of our media's last shreds of credibility. This says it nicely:

I calmly explained what I liked [about Trump] — all of it having to do with policy — but concluded by saying that what keeps me supporting him is the fact that nearly everyone on the left has become a lunatic.

Despite my long-held view of Trump as a liberal clown, I won't feel soiled voting for him. Democrats actually pushed Trump to the right by their hysterical refusal to accept him as legitimate. And the unhinged Resistance coup that Trump has endured without breaking has somewhat raised my opinion of him personally. Trump is far from perfect on that issue. But the Democrats have ruled themselves out as an alternative this election cycle by their far-left, cancel-culture politics and their unhinged Resistance. I really do want to thank Democrats for giving this gift of peace of mind to me.

So I look forward to voting for Trump to defy the irresponsible and reprehensible Democrats and media. They are attempting a coup under color of law and the pretense of journalism.

And if there are more liberals screaming at the sky in anguish after this election? Well, that would be great. But it would be nice if they would get it out of their system in one night and decline to riot in our cities to demonstrate why they must lose.

UPDATE: Related. Maybe suburban women aren't pulling the lever for Biden. It is a sad day when so many people in America justifiably fear for their jobs, friends, and even safety for supporting a political party.

Weekend Data Dump

I'm sure Democratic politicians would oppose this kind of Antifa violence--if pressed by the media, which they won't be. Those politicians have something more organized in mind. Of course, Reich is nuts. And a well-known fabulist who fancies himself as a dragon slayer. So I won't say he reflects majority thinking in the Democratic Party. But a healthy political party would rebuke him for criminalizing political differences.

Apparently, China is upgrading its missiles facing Taiwan with the DF-17 to be able to support an invasion of Taiwan. Although it might only be modernization if the missiles being replaced are moved away or broken up rather than being reinforced. I hope people watching can tell the difference between psychological warfare and invasion preparation.

Nigeria has more problems than just jihadis in the north. Their police force called SARS abuses people. Um. Special Anti-Robbery Squad? SARS? Really? Will police reform include renaming it the Elite Bandit Opposition Law Agency?

Predicted post-election changes. 

This author notes the usefulness of aviation-focused Navy amphibious warfare carriers. I was on that thirteen years ago.

The upgrades will continue until morale improves.

I hold open the possibility that the Hunter Biden laptop story is total BS. Neither side seems to have a full grip on credibility as alleged details and defenses come out. Although it isn't, apparently, Russian disinformation. Rep. Schiff has said a lot of things that aren't true about the Russians. So it is good to know one thing that isn't true. But what is true about the laptop story? Why can't Biden's campaign deny the emails are real? Is Giuliani blowing smoke about what he has? What I really worry about is not that what the Biden family did was illegal but that it is all legal and business as usual.

China has apparently sold C-802A anti-ship missiles to the Venezuelan navy. I imagine China sees this as revenge for America arming Taiwan. Of course, America isn't about to invade Venezuela. But the Dutch should worry.

The election determination could be long and ugly, but our Constitution is likely to handle it even if provisions even more obscure than the Electoral College have to be used.

Will the Army-designed long-range cannon return the battleship to the fleet? Well, not literally, but I do think a cannon with sufficient range would be the best weapon for a network-centric fleet. And a 1,150-mile cannon with precision rounds aboard ships would pretty much kill the large aircraft carrier as a useful offensive weapon, I think. Or could they be optimized for air defense of the fleet? Or packed with missiles and those cannons, and only capable of operating small numbers of helicopters and F-35Bs?

There's probably a good chance that the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic will really harm free Europe's uneven rearmament efforts. No amount of American prodding will be able to overcome that to get NATO to its 2024 two-percent-of-GDP defense spending target commitment.

When minority students graduate with the benefits of that kind of "education" that disregards class behavior or even meeting deadlines--not to mention the idiocy of how grading is to be done--and fail to succeed in the real world, "racism" will no doubt be blamed. That charge will also be directed at employers who will prefer to use robots or hire people from abroad to work remotely rather than trust the products of San Diego school education. Leftists harm minorities by acting as if minorities are incapable of succeeding yet somehow the leftists are assumed to be the "caring" class.

Some good news that not only mass politically correct gatherings are safe from being "superspreader" events.

Sanity and division of powers prevails in Michigan--although that faces limits given that Democrats apparently think their supporters are morons.

Again, I want to believe this is true but I have no idea whether this is just saying things I want to hear about poll accuracy. There are a lot of theories about there about why various small indicators predict that Trump wins despite the polling data--data that is supposed to predict the winner--that says Biden wins. There were persuasive indicators in 2008 and in 2012 that seemed to show Obama would lose. Obviously he did not. But yet ... polling is harder with honest answers now; and the hatred for Trump voters says that it makes sense that Trump voters aren't answering honestly. I just don't know. I'll vote for Trump regardless. I just don't know whether to be pessimistic or optimistic about the vote totals.

Well, the dead are a natural voting bloc for the Democrats.

If Hunter Biden is living a wealthy jet-set lifestyle despite alleged crack smoking, corruption, stripper-impregnating, hooker-banging, and marrying the widow of his dead brother, I just might have to take another look at that whole white privilege thing. If it isn't family corruption, what else could it be? Talent? 

Making enemy subs nervous.

No Je Suis Genghis, I guess. Is the Chinese Communist Party actually offended? Or is the CCP simply displaying its raw power over France over some stupid little alleged insult? Although sure, with the CCP adding Mongols to their ethnic cleansing to-do list, it can't have any references to the history of that ethnicity, can it?

If Britain won't have access to criminal databases maintained by the EU if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, the lack of a deal isn't the problem--the EU's desire to punish Britain for the sin of leaving the EU--four years after voting for Brexit--is the problem. I should think this is an argument for why ultimately Britain will be much safer outside of the "ever closer union" of the EU proto-empire.

How anyone can trust our media is beyond me. 

I've semi-joked that if Biden wins that magically the pandemic lockdowns will end in Democratic-run states after the election. On reflection, the pandemics will end even if Trump wins because Democrats will want young leftists to go home from college on Thanksgiving to rudely pester their "deplorable" relatives.

Well that makes sense. They finally noticed that the people who hate America hate Trump, too.

I fear the answer is "no." And the only hope of a "yes" is to reelect Trump.

Americans need to get out of China now.  They can't take you hostage over Zoom.

I'm glad the police are preparing. I think there will be riots by the Left regardless of who wins the election.

The Army wants to use artificial intelligence to help shoot down enemy small drones that threaten ground troops. But it doesn't seem to include small "fighter" drones that defend the troops in the air over them, as I advocated in Army magazine. Given that China is working on "suicide" drone swarms, maybe we should get on those drone combat air patrols that I want.

Did this incident in which Chinese diplomats appeared to have attacked a Taiwanese diplomat in Fiji indicate a telegraphing of a Chinese attack? I mean, if Chinese diplomats have been warned that the PLA will be acting soon, might that incline diplomats to lean forward a bit more than normal?

Well, every little bit at sea helps. I'm waiting for the offspring.

Sweden is greatly expanding their defense capabilities over the next five years. But even that just puts Sweden at 1.5% of GDP for defense. Which means Sweden isn't quite NATO-worthy. But Sweden is getting there.

The Reaper won't die.

Well good. I keep telling myself that 99% of America's a-holes are on Twitter and making things look worse than it is. But my confidence sometimes wavers.

Who can blame Jeffrey Toobin for ... uh ... polishing the ol' bayonet, when he was participating in a Zoom Trumptatorship Porn Simulation? For true Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers, that's irresistible Resistance stimulation. I'm shocked all of the participants weren't doing the same thing once they got to the "war crimes trial" part of the event, honestly. I'd feel guilty even bringing this up--although the simulation is the real focus--except that if Toobin was conservative he'd have been fired, cancelled, and charged with crimes by now.

From lockdown for "two weeks to bend the curve" to lockdown "until there is a vaccine" to "I'll never trust the vaccine." This isn't moving the goal posts--it's tearing them down.

Iran is broke and while conflict simmers in Iraq and Syria, Armenia and Azerbaijan add to the violence--while the Xi Jinping Flu hovers over it all.

Object in mirror closer than it appears. Yikes. If it kept going will it come back? Tip to Instapundit.

We face social media leftists who are morons on top of being censors. But mostly they and their buddies are awful people unworthy of being trusted. Via Instapundit.

Trudeau? No. Trudough.

I never saw that extremely dishonest commercial. Tell me again about how we have to vote for Biden because Trump lies about crowd sizes.

Interesting. Infection fatality rates vary greatly by state. If Trump's leadership has been so bad, why didn't it equally affect the states? Why isn't state leadership the most important thing? And if the states with high rates aren't badly leading their states, maybe this whole leadership issue is missing the point. This is on top of Europe's skyrocketing infection rates that surpassed America despite Europe's so-called enlightened leadership and state-run health systems. Via Instapundit.

Explain to me again how Trump is threatening our democratic institutions and traditions.

Just what Congo needs--jihadis.

America is finally treating Iran as the enemy that Iran has long insisted America is ("Death to America!"). It isn't America's fault that Iran's nutball rulers prioritize their Shia imperial jihad over battling the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. The Iranian people notice that--and a lot more--even if American liberals don't.

Road warrior.

Teacher unions are all about the unions and not about the teachers--or even the students. As I've said before, I'm furious at the teacher unions over the elementary school closures during the pandemic. I still remember--when I was early in my career--an honorary tribute I wrote for a legislator who wanted to celebrate a retiring "teacher." The information about the teacher provided by the school was densely packed with achievements. Only one was about teaching. I felt that I did not violate any sort of nonpartisanship by taking the document at its word and praising the teacher for his extensive union achievements over his entire career as a "teacher." I honestly debated that with myself and finally concluded that when I was limited to highlighting 3 or 4 things that picking 1 of 40+ achievements would be a distortion of his career rather than even-handed. That was more damning than any hit piece I could have come up with.

I suspect that the media and Democratic demonization of Trump voters--complete with some calling for post-election purges--will be seen by historians as more like the Salem Witch Trial hysteria than anything else. The "priests" in that comparison will be the press corps, of course.

I have some serious quibbles with some of this, but it is a reasonably level-headed assessment of American foreign policy priorities.

Getting used to bad change.

I read that early voting means that late campaign events like the Biden corruption revelations have little effect. Votes are cast. But is that true? Who is voting early? Base voters or swing voters? My guess is base voters on the Democratic side who fear Trump and the Xi Jinping Flu in equal measure and so don't want to wait/risk voting on election day in person. And it won't affect Republicans already planning to vote for Trump on election day. But for those who don't think about presidential elections every day of their lives including the day after the election? Won't the revealed sleaze affect their pending votes? But maybe my guess is wrong.

The Wake island airfield is getting overdue improvements and repairs. Good.

Erdogan's Turkey has chosen ... poorly.

The Israelis struck at Hamas tunnels in Gaza that terrorists often try to dig into Israel to commit murder.

NATO's determination to remain in Afghanistan until conditions allow is good. But I doubt NATO would stay if America leaves completely.

If the Russians said they'd interfere in our election less after the election we'd rightly still be outraged.

Trying to drag Biden over the finish line.

It strikes me that Democrats can't pull out an "October surprise" because every month of every year since Trump won has seen a "game changer" accusation that fizzled out. What else could there be and even if true, who but Democratic Resistance members would believe it?

Sigh. Maybe next time the Catholic Church will select a Catholic Pope. Once the Pope defended Western values within the religious realm. Now? Lord knows what he is doing.

I find it hard to believe that 78% of Americans feel under strain because of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. I think I had stress for about a month when the lockdown started because of the alarmist prediction models which made the unknowns seem ominous. And I had a small amount of stress when we opened up stores again because that was an unknown. And I don't find the problems we face "overwhelming" mostly because I think that the problems are pretty small historically speaking and in context, and only seem bigger because of "elite" partisanship. I think so much emphasis in recent years on "micro-aggressions" has had a bad effect on elevating the trivial to significant. I worry about people who can't work or go to school because of government decisions to lock things down. But that's different.

Interesting given skyrocketing Xi Jinping Flu cases in Europe despite routine mask wearing. But I'm sticking with my view that certain face masks are helpful if worn correctly and if part of more general precautions. If you think a mask is 100% protection you may take dangerous risks virus-wise. And if you wear the wrong kind or wear them incorrectly, that makes it worse. I felt that the usefulness of masks was true back when public health officials said they weren't very good in order to keep people from buying them up when health professionals needed the limited supply more. I felt that was true when the pendulum swung and people said they were vital, with a fervor that bordered on religious faith. And I stick with that view now. Is being a Cold War-era soldier when wearing chemical weapon protection was routine training a factor in my view?

Iran--not the Proud Boys--sent emails to Democrats trying to intimidate them into not voting. Please, don't even try to argue with that. Those messages were obviously designed to be discovered and traced to Iran in order to harm Trump. 

With reports on long lines for early voting, I'm starting to think that when I go to vote on election day that I'll sail right through with no delays at all. So it will be the safest method of voting virus-wise, eh?

Fine. They failed to suppress one story. Yippee! The social media/media/Democratic complex only has a 99% success rate of downplaying news it doesn't like!

I wonder if the Biden family corruption revelations--which are basically just details of an issue we really do know exists--will have any effect at all on the election. I also wonder if the real effect will be a public reaction to the blatant political suppression of the Biden revelations. Still, you also know that if this was Don Jr.'s laptop that Pelosi would be firing up Impeachment 2.0 right now.

The cheap and easy-to-fly A-29 is a COIN plane of choice.

Well sure, why wouldn't all Navy combat vessels get hypersonic missiles when available?

If America needs a truth and reconciliation commission it would be for so-called "journalists" who abandoned all remnants of their profession's ideals in order to drag Biden across the finish line.

I find it hard to believe that China will come out a winner from the Wuhan Flu pandemic that China helped spread through their secrecy and which they made worse abroad by scooping up personal protection equipment around the world to send home during that blackout of news. The world is going to forget that and continue on subcontracting manufacturing to China or trust China? I don't think so. And that's if you believe China's economic statistics and pandemic news.

I'm sure Democrats won't hold war crimes trials for Trump voters if Biden wins. Maybe Democrats will require Trump supporters to wear little red triangles on their clothes, but other than that? No worries.

Turkey's more assertive policies in their proto-Ottoman objectives are not making friends and influencing people in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Yes, "fact-checking" by liberals is just "censorship" with a better marketing campaign. Tip to Instapundit.

There will be no apology. Or changes in standard operating procedures.

So Xi Jinping will try to scare America with the prospect of war with China? And this will include displaying an American Army regimental standard captured in the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir in the Korean War? Well, we might want to remind China that it took 200,000 to 600,000 dead Chinese troops to capture that flag. Although Xi might be talking "war" to cover the quick seizure of Taiwan's ill-defended Pratas Islands, as I mentioned in updates in this post. Might that be China's threatened "retaliation" for American arms sales to Taiwan?

Good grief, of course Trump has a plan for the pandemic! What is the major malfunction of people arguing that he does not? Trump cut off travel and ordered a lockdown to slow down the spread and avoid overwhelming the health systems; reinforced civilian hospitals with military personnel and facilities; expanded testing and equipment production to protect and treat people; pushed for rapid production of vaccines and treatments; relied on governors to know their own states' needs; spent borrowed money to help people get through the lockdown period; pushed to reopen the economy as soon as possible--with appropriate safety precautions and benchmarks--to avoid bad personal and economic side effects of lockdowns; and readied the military to use its logistics capabilities to distribute the vaccine when ready. What is unclear about that plan? How can you fail to recognize all that as a plan?

Mali soldiers air dropped supplies to a village besieged by jihadis. That worries me. Eight years ago American aircraft dropped supplies to besieged Malian troops and civilians--not long before the Tuaregs and their jihadi friends overran northern Mali and threatened the south.

I'm thinking that the "Lincoln Project" is really something from the John Wilkes Booth point of view. 

Whaaaat? Labeling bullied kids as "bullied kids" among the bullied kids' peers is counter-productive? Who'd have thought that?

Given that I only recently started gambling (I've been to Las Vegas a few times in the last couple years), this is interesting. Thus far I am always aware if I am winning or losing (I keep track while I'm gambling in my phone's notes feature); and when I bet $50 or $200, I bet that amount and then stop and walk away from the game. When I reach my overall cap of placing bets, I stop. One friend noted I'm really disciplined on that. So far so good. And some of the psychological motivating factors do seem obvious. But who knows? Maybe the "near miss" result affects me even though I know that probability doesn't work that way. But it is good to be aware. As long as I keep this going with just occasional trips to Las Vegas, I should be good.

Maybe it's just me but I don't want the electrical grid I'm on hooked up to California under any circumstances.

Trump must be the only dictator with his state-funded radio station working to remove him from office 24/7. This is bad. We can't even get a "Republicans pounce" story out of them. Meanwhile, the Manchurian Peking Candidate story begs for oxygen from the Biden stenographers.

The final debate was clearly slanted to Biden as expected. But the moderator was okay under those limitations. Trump was fine. Biden was adequate. So clear edge to Trump. I still think that Biden has something medically done to him during those disappearances before the debates to bring him up to par. There will be no fact checks of Biden's claims that aggravated me. I think Trump was more reassuring to voters about his temperament than Biden was reassuring about his mental faculties. But just barely. If Biden wins, will enemies give Biden a few days in a medical facility to raise him up to adequate mental capabilities before sparking a crisis? Also, we may need to revise conclusions that Trump should have let Biden speak for two minutes without interrupting in the first debate.

Explain to me again about the lofty credibility standards of our media about addressing allegations of wrongdoing. And don't get me started on three years of BS Russia-Trump collusion wild speculations with no basis in fact.

Precision mortar rounds make them more useful despite their limited range.

Turkey is actually making a foreign policy move that is smart: reaching out to Ukraine. Turkey wants a buffer against their historic enemy Russia and Ukraine needs help to defeat Russia.

Could America privateers take down China's commercial fleet during a war? Maybe. Although allied navies that will never send anything close to China but which are operating in their own regions could do that.well enough, I think. Those Chinese merchant ships have to go to a port sometime to be useful for Chinese trade, eh? But I'd worry that the Navy and Coast Guard would have trouble recruiting sailors when there is competition that offers less danger and potential prize money benefits.

 

I heard that Quibi is shutting down after 6 months of trying to make a go of the business model. I think that is a good sign for our cognitive abilities. I was horrified that this reflected a tremendously short Internet-addled attention span. Perhaps it was a mistake to start that service in a pandemic lockdown when people have time for longer videos.

For being an alleged Nazi, Trump is clearly the most pro-Israeli president we've had. And it hasn't stopped him from successfully engineering peace deals between Arab states and Israel. Democratic efforts to claim Trump isn't pro-Israeli rest on dubious arguments that true friendship with Israel requires a so-called "tough love" approach that pressures Israel into concessions to enemies in the hope that the enemies will feel the love and embrace Israel instead of trying to kill them all.

This might have been the smartest Trump move in the election home stretch, denying CBS the chance to deceptively edit a hit piece against Trump or Pence. Tip to Instapundit.

If the North Korean ICBM displayed in their recent parade is real and not a plastic turkey, it has vulnerabilities and won't be real for many years.

 

To be fair, Biden probably honestly doesn't remember what he said even minutes earlier.

Command posts are missile magnets the way they emit and the Army wants to break them apart to operate in separate places to reduce vulnerability. They'd best be mobile, too. And armored.

I remain stunned that the Democrats push the lie that Trump has botched the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic response. We've done a lot better than a lot of countries and worse than others. And we really don't know why any more than we know why some of our states did better or worse than others. I mean other than the horrific decision to send recovering pandemic patients to nursing homes. I mean, why is Italy suffering again after following "the science." Are people really forgetting January and February already? Can you imagine Trump locking down our country then before there was consensus that there was any need for that? If Trump had locked down in January the Democratic charge would have been that he was trying to undermine the impeachment trial. Had Trump locked down in February the charge would have been that this was just proving that he was the dictator Democrats long claimed he wanted to be. And if the lockdown had actually worked--which global experience suggests it wouldn't have--Democrats would have claimed Trump overreacted because of his tyrannical tendencies. And if the lockdown didn't work, the charge would have been he should have done it sooner. Face it, you know this is true. If voters fall for this, maybe we deserve a Biden Harris administration.

The media's determination to avoid covering Biden's corruption is disgusting.

I'm relieved the F-15EX will enter our inventory as a bridge to an F-35 fleet and as a cheaper but still quite effective supplement to the F-35.

How can you mock Trump when you don't even know what a "coyote" is? 

It is actually pretty amazing that it never occurred to those people that perhaps they didn't know something Trump knew.

"NATO countries' military spending grew in 2020 for the sixth straight year, but only 10 of 30 members spent two percent of GDP, a report on Wednesday said." The objective is to have all of them at that level by 2024. The countries reaching the goal already are America, Greece, Britain, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, France and Norway.

 

While 2nd Cavalry Regiment (a Stryker brigade and not an actual armored cavalry regiment, alas) is leaving Germany for the continental United States, it will likely rotate units into eastern Europe on what seems like a mostly constant basis. I assume the entire regiment won't do that.

A deal is lovely, but will the Russians and Turks agree to pull their mercenaries out of Libya?

 

There isn't a lot of funny this week. Just sad reality:

Bernie Sanders supporter plotted to kill Biden. But if you stop reading before you get to the Bernie supporter part deep in the article, the Washington Post won't mind if you assume some right winger is the culprit. Tip to Instapundit.

I certainly hope that vulnerability has been fixed. Explain to me again why our electric grid needs to be connected to the Internet?

 

I stand corrected. There is funny. Just keep scrolling. This is funny:

I like the cut of that editor's jib.

I really don't understand why Egypt would possibly think that destroying Ethiopia's GERD Nile River dam could work in the long run given that with hostility to Egypt, Ethiopia could do a lot of damage to the Nile flow or water quality. Sudan would be hurt, too, so is Sudan cool with being Egypt's human shield? But Ethiopia shouldn't ignore the possibility that Egypt might do that out of fear. Eritrea, Ethiopia's long-time enemy and former province, has flipped to Ethiopia's side in the diplomatic war. I assume Eritrea will get significant electricity from the dam once finished and filled.

Small and cheap attack UAVs. So when do the air defense UAVs come out to fight them? I discussed that in Army magazine a couple years ago.

I'll go out on a limb and say the mullahs will still allocate enough money to keep the Iranian mayhem machine rolling.

Firefox's latest upgrade seems to include a feature of breaking and shutting down if I have too many tabs open. That's nice.

Do we even know what the Chinese nuclear threat is now let alone what it will be in ten years?

The A-10 is getting upgrades to let it attack ground targets from a distance rather than rely on its 30mm cannon. Good. While the F-35 in theory could do this, my worry has long been that I doubt pilots would get much practice doing that when other Air Force priorities conflict. I like having a dedicated ground support community in the Air Force.

Duterte is continuing to appease China by refusing to resist China's South China Sea expansion.

Yeah, that's wonderful and all that. But Taiwan's enhanced international reputation built on its Xi Jinping Flu pandemic response plus a dollar will get Taiwan a cup of coffee when the PLA storms ashore. My worry, as I recently wrote about in Military Review, is getting the PLA off the island before the ceasefire.

A century of Soviet and Russian election interference. The only real difference in 2016 was that the Democrats noticed (and pretended that this time it was directed against them).

 

Will enough suburban women vote for Trump? I'll just say it. If polls are under-polling "shy" Trump voters who refuse to state their preference, why wouldn't women be even more prone to that? Women tend to be more social and more involved with kids who they don't want to be ostracized by other mothers. Perhaps confidence in Trump's ability to repair the economy and concerns about Biden's apparent cognitive decline are quietly persuading them. We'll see.

The Biden family corruption isn't as well known as the Clinton family's, but c'mon man! We all know it is there and didn't even need the Hunter Biden laptop to verify it. As I read somewhere, the media pored over Kavanaugh's high school year book, but Hunter's laptop computer is verboten. Biden isn't even bothering to deny the allegations, secure in the knowledge that the media will shield him until after the election.

Can Russia build a more effective reserve system?

Iraqis are again--after the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic interrupted it--out protesting Iran's violent influence in Iraq. We'll see if the Iraqi government can prevent pro-Iran elements of the security forces from gunning them down on the streets.

Oops. Kinsley Gaffe? Tip to Instapundit.

They know at least Trump is trying to help rather than celebrating their demise. That matters even though the long run is likely not going to be kind to coal mining absent some new technology. Via Instapundit.

If government paying for college would pay for itself, shouldn't that mean that loaning money to students who actually get and benefit from college degrees should pay for itself for the students involved? Tip to Instapundit.

It isn't just that AOC is tiresome in her ridiculous claim for victimhood on that issue. My issue with her is that she displays no evidence of having benefited from a college education.

Afghan security forces killed a most-wanted al Qaeda terrorist. How people can't say we haven't won the Afghanistan campaign when Afghans are killing jihadis now rather than hosting them is beyond me.

You're not supposed to see this information.

So Just "Lean," Then? Or Deliberately Off-Shore?

Ten years ago the British gutted their defense capabilities under the guise of studying it. Here we go again. But does it make some sort of strange sense for Britain?

You may recall the last time Britain reviewed their defenses. Leaner and meaner, indeed.

The ground forces envisioned in that plan were just sad even though I could see reducing heavy armor somewhat. The decline of Russia's army seemed to justify that.

But now the British in their new review of their defenses seems to think no tanks are necessary despite the rebuilding of the Russian army and the rapid expansion of Russian paranoid assertiveness. 

Army procurement in Britain seems particularly dysfunctional:

The UK is now faced with a situation where more or less the entire British army’s equipment is obsolescent and needs replacing at the same time, there isn’t enough money in the budget to do it, and what funds as exist are in danger of being cut in the [Integrated Security and Defence Review]. 

The pending Ten-Year Rule 2.0 means Britain will be capable of nuking you or bombing you from the sea--if you aren't too capable with your anti-ship weapons. Other than that Britain is unable to impose its will on any actual enemy on the ground.

Still, I will say one thing in favor of the British trend despite my NATO-centric judgment. That is, with the proto-imperial European Union seemingly eager to punish Britain for Brexit, perhaps Britain feels it is going back to its historical roots of global trade and avoiding land commitments to the continent. See this piece that reminded me of that. Perhaps 1914 to 1989 was the historical aberration that Britain is now rejecting.

I'd still rather have British military power on the continent as a full NATO partner and worry that Britain seems to be ruling that out. 

But Britain ultimately has little interest in protecting a continent under EU rule that treats Britain as a quasi-enemy--as long as the British can count on America to keep Europe safe. I hope that ultimately the EU will fail to become an imperial body and that America-led NATO will be the dominant political factor in Europe. Then perhaps Britain will see more of an interest in defending the continent through NATO.

But until then, we shall see if the British defense review allows that kind of thin global role that enhances British global trade and diplomacy.

The "Europe" Sleight of Hand

It's time to refer to the Definitions Section for "Europe."

The author hopes you won't notice the sleight of hand involved here:

"The transatlantic relationship is practically on life support," said Sudha David-Wilp, a senior transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

Even if Democratic challenger Joe Biden wins the November 3 election, experts said there will be no magical healing of the EU-US rift.

Recent surveys by the Pew Research Center found that America's image among Europeans has plummeted to record lows, with just 26 percent of Germans now holding a favourable view of the superpower.

As a quick aside, if the Germans don't like America much, that reflects a problem with Germans and not America.

But I digress (as I can). Let me address some things before getting to the sleight of hand part. All the reasons given blaming tensions on America are BS. Note the Xi Jinping Flu record that America is allegedly screwing up:

As for harming multilateralism, the BS Paris climate deal was viewed as ineffective by the Green lobby right up until Trump pulled America out of the deal; and the horrible Iran nuclear deal was a shield behind which Iran would get nuclear weapons. And don't talk to me about Trump "cosying up to Russia" when Germany is the poster child to sucking up to Russia (via energy deals) and refusing to rearm in the face of Russian aggression. Trump is strengthening NATO defenses and pushing European NATO states to meet their multilateral commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defense.

And this is where we get to the sleight of hand part.

The article speaks of the EU-US rift as and issue between America and Europe. Since when is the European Union the same as Europe? Do not confuse the political entity with the geographic region.

In addition, NATO is the actual body that sustains trans-Atlantic ties. The European Union is the body trying to kill NATO and eject America from Europe to leave the EU free to be the imperial overlord it aspires to be. That EU will be a threat to America.

The EU is not "Europe" and the EU is no friend of America, and that is true regardless of who is America's president.

Remind again of the Golden Era in trans-Atlantic relations we should aspire to. And as long as we are talking about what angers "Europeans," let's discuss what doesn't bother them one bit.

In case I'm not clear about my view of the EU. And if you still have doubts. I feel like I've been on a long and lonely crusade against the--to me--incomprehensible thinking that a politically united Europe is actually in America's interest.