Sweden Mans the Wall

Sweden is stepping up to contribute to NATO-wide security rather than just being a consumer of alliance security.

Sweden formally becomes a security provider in NATO: 

Pending approval from the Swedish parliament, the bill outlines Stockholm’s contribution of ground troops, marine units, naval vessels, and combat aircraft to the alliance.

“This is a historic decision. For the first time as an ally, we will contribute an armed force to NATO’s collective defense,” said Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard.

The Swedish assets will support NATO forces in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, where Sweden shares a maritime border with Russia.

That was always my condition for membership rather than just valuing its geography.

And I missed this part of Sweden's efforts:

In April, Stockholm announced a plan for deploying a battalion of 600 soldiers to Latvia, including CV90 armored vehicles and Leopard 2 main battle tanks, to be implemented in 2025.

Good. It could be part of a multinational brigade to enhance its combat power. Maybe in one of ours if my proposal in Army is picked up.

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A Flood of Ships Heading to Sea?

How much of China's naval build up is part of a mindless five-year plan rather than actual capabilities?

This capability is ominous:

Satellite imagery reveals the recent major expansions that have made China’s shipbuilding infrastructure the most robust in the world. Even the commercial vessels built alongside the warships in these yards are being constructed to military specifications, including the ability to carry troops and vehicles during conflict. ...

China’s shipbuilding expansion should be a wake-up call. The facilities needed to churn out advanced warships can’t be built overnight. If a conflict arises in the Pacific, the United States would be forced to fight with the ships it has.

China can build more ships in a month than American shipyards can build in a year. That seems to grossly under-estimate China's capacity. Perhaps it is more accurate to say China is currently building at that ratio? But China could build more if it chose to?

And worse, repairing battle damage will be daunting for America, meaning that a mission kill is as good as sinking a ship. In a long war, how will losses be replaced?

But  we've heard that the new car smell of the PLA Navy conceals figurative rust:

China has a problem that makes their shiny new modernized military less than what it seems. And it isn't just the lack of experience in waging war with all their new stuff.

No, the main problem for China is corruption that makes their military less effective than it seems:

Corruption in the Chinese military has been a problem for thousands of years but the current government is making a major, but largely ineffective, effort to curb these bad practices.

That means China isn't as formidable a foe as paper comparisons would indicate. That's good for us.

And as even recent reports claim, it hasn't been fixed, apparently. But it might be good enough.

Is the PLAN a paper tiger reflecting mindless plans that emphasize pumping out ships that look great for the reporting entity on reports sent up the chain of command without the support to effectively operate them? Or is it a skeleton that will be fleshed out in the coming decade?

UPDATE: This is comforting:

In 2023 Chinese leader President Xi Jinping made the awful discovery that his navy and air force had miniscule stocks of spare parts. This alone made a Taiwan invasion impossible. In addition, the lack of spare parts made it impossible to sustain months of combat against Taiwanese holdouts and American reinforcements that would follow landings on Taiwan. 

Can Xi correct enough of the hollowness to work long enough? 

UPDATE: Commander Salamander has related thoughts.

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Plan B in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

How much more progress must American-Cyprus defense ties see before Cyprus allows America to close down the Incirlik air base in Turkey?

Cyprus and America are beginning a "strategic dialog":

“It is a big moment in the relationship between our countries and to be part of this feels like being part of an historic occasion,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O’Brien said at a news conference.

Cyprus’ clear policy shift toward deepening U.S. relations after decades of walking a tightrope between Washington and Moscow gained added steam after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

I've noted that Cyprus has arisen as a potential alternative to relying on the increasingly unreliable Erdogan government that may make our Incirlik air base in Turkey useless in a crisis where that NATO "ally" takes the other side. 

The seeds for that have been planted. 

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NOTE: I modified the base NYT graphic to label Cyprus.

The Winter War of 2022 Gives Sailors a Reason to Find Out the Limit of How Much a Man Can Take

As Russia scrapes the empire for cannon fodder, will the troops who have escaped service at the front resist efforts to put them there?

Russia continues to claw away in the Donbas but at a seemingly slower pace. Russia is counter-attacking at the Kursk salient. I wonder what will trigger a Ukrainian withdrawal. Has Ukraine grown dangerously attached to its conquests?

Russia's navy goes to war:

The Russian army looked to the navy as a source of additional soldiers. Ukrainian naval drones sank or damaged most of the ships in the Black Sea fleet and forced the remaining ships to take refuge in remote Black Sea ports. The crews of these blockaded warships had little to do and Russian admirals were unwilling to send their ships out to be sunk by the Ukrainian naval and aerial drones. Before the war the Russian navy has 140,000 personnel, which included 12,000 naval infantry. By 2023 most of the naval infantry had already been sent to Ukraine. More recently most of the crew on the only Russian aircraft carrier, the Kuznetsov, were sent to Ukraine. Since the Kuznetsov was undergoing a never-ending series of repairs, 1,500 sailors from the ship were available for service in Ukraine. New Russia sailors receive some training with infantry weapons. As a result, using these sailors as infantry in Ukraine makes sense. Unless you happen to be one of those sailors.

I've wondered if the cogs being sacrificed to keep the pressure on Ukraine will continue fighting. But often, troops in combat spend too much time keeping themselves and their comrades alive to contemplate mutiny. Rear echelon troops have more time and opportunity to express war weariness.

Do I read too much into this scraping of the fleet? Maybe.

But for Russia, sailors are a problem waiting to happen:

During the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905, many of the Black Sea Fleet's most experienced officers and enlisted men were transferred to the ships in the Pacific to replace losses. This left the fleet with primarily raw recruits and less capable officers. With the news of the disastrous Battle of Tsushima in May 1905, morale dropped to an all-time low, and any minor incident could be enough to spark a major catastrophe. Taking advantage of the situation, plus the disruption caused by the ongoing riots and uprisings, the Central Committee of the Social Democratic Organisation of the Black Sea Fleet, called "Tsentralka", had started preparations for a simultaneous mutiny on all of the ships of the fleet, although the timing had not been decided.

The crew of the battleship Potemkin revolted, sparked by maggot-infested meat.

Hell, Lenin celebrated the ship crew's mutiny as part of the failed 1905 revolution as a "dress rehearsal" for the Communist revolution in 1917.

So with some naval personnel being sent to the front, will those still on their ships--perhaps raw recruits lacking capable leadership--start pondering their chances of surviving the war a little more pessimistically?

And don't forget the German navy that sat in port with too much time on their hands during World War I:

The Kiel mutiny (German: Kieler Matrosenaufstand) was a revolt by sailors of the German High Seas Fleet against the maritime military command in Kiel. The mutiny broke out on 3 November 1918 when some of the ships' crews refused to sail out from Wilhelmshaven for the final battle against the British Grand Fleet that the Admiralty had ordered without the knowledge or approval of the German government. The mutineers, who saw the planned battle as a futile "death voyage", took over Kiel with workers' and soldiers' councils and then helped spread them across Germany. 

The mutiny spread enough to end the Kaiser's rule and bring about the Weimar Republic. 

How many sailors in today's Russian navy want a death voyage to the front? Would that revolt spread throughout Russia's military and into society?

Is Russia's importation of North Korean troops an effort to delay that problem by substituting dead foreigners for dead Russians? Because Russia is a large country, it could find 12,000 more Russians if it wanted to get bodies that way.

We'll see how Ukrainians react to Hessians being hired to kill them.

I'm not predicting a Potemkin kind of revolt. But with a war largely stalemated on the land front, something will break the stalemate and end the war. A breakdown of military willingness to fight is one of the somethings. And Russia has taken steps to make this option more likely by sending sailors to the front to die as more disposable cogs in the Russian war machine.

UPDATE (Tuesday): What's going on north of Vuhledar? Based on the maps it sure looks like Russia has advanced a great deal since capturing the town long held by Ukraine which defeated repeated and costly Russian assaults since early in the war. David Axe prompted me to check the maps.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Hmmm:

Russian forces have been making gains in eastern Ukraine recently, but comparing those gains to the initial deep Russian penetration into Ukraine at the start of the war misleadingly frames these most recent advances. For example, Russian forces seized the settlement of Vuhledar as of October 1, 2024, have continued to advance north and northwest of Vuhledar, and have made significant tactical gains in and near Selydove (southeast of Pokrovsk) over the course of the past week. These respective advances are tactically significant but do not represent a general increase in the pace of Russian advances across the frontline, much of which remains relatively stagnant, nor are they within two orders of magnitude of the rate of Russian advance in the first stage of the war.

This seems to be moving the goal posts quite a bit to minimize the significance of recent Russian advances around Vuhledar. Obviously nothing Russia has done matches their very early war advances into Ukraine.

The Russian advance may very well culminate before achieving anything of operational significance. But the advances are faster lately. Why?

My hope this summer has been that Ukraine was starving the front to create a reserve for a major counter-attack against a Russian salient inside Ukraine. In a sense, the Kursk Incursion may be that operation. But now the war will crawl along with positional warfare during the autumn mud and winter ice to see if warm weather and dry ground will allow someone to change the direction of the largely stalemated land war front.

UPDATE: Cruelty and desperation?

The Russian military command continues to commit seriously wounded personnel to highly attritional infantry-led “meat” assaults in the Kurakhove direction as Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to posture himself as deeply concerned with the medical treatment of Russian veterans.

Dead soldiers don't need to be supported for decades the way wounded veterans do.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

Thanks for reading TDR. I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and sharing links. I post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I also occasionally post short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.   

I continue to update this post on the now Hezbollah-centric Israeli war on Iran's proxies.

Oh: "Since the 1970s the PA has diverted nearly half a billion dollars in foreign aid to pay Palestinian terrorists for killing Israeli civilians and soldiers. There is an elaborate system for paying the families of dead Palestinian terrorists as well as lesser payments for those imprisoned for attacks on Israelis."

I see reports of an Israeli brigade commander killed in action in Gaza, but this ISW report says he's a brigade commander and identifies the colonel as a battalion commander. Clearly a battalion commander, I'd say.

After 32 months of war, Ukraine's squeeze of supplies into Crimea is having an effect. I wonder if that will all be undone after Russia completes a rail link through occupied Ukrainian territory north of the Sea of Azov. The gift of time is always appreciated by an enemy.

More fabricating than reminding: "This year has seen President Vladimir Putin repeatedly brandish the nuclear sword, reminding everyone that Russia has the world’s largest atomic arsenal to try to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine."

Canada may be weak but they can stand their ground [Link fixed].

CRS report on nuclear-armed, sea-launched cruise missiles. I lean against this. Air defenses are much better against cruise missiles. Can we spare ships from sea control for nuclear missions? And it's dangerous for a nuclear power to think conventional attacks are nukes. But my opinion is fluid right now.

Missiles and drones: "Estonia is looking to acquire weapons and gear to hit an invading force before it reaches the country’s borders, the head of its defense procurement office says."

No matter how poorly Russia's military is performing, it is dying and fighting. As long as Russia is better than its target, it can win. Going on three years, Ukraine still hasn't bought Europe enough time to re-arm.

Communism does more damage than storms: "On Sunday afternoon the Cuban Electrical Union announced that more than 216,000 people in Havana, a city of 2 million, had power restored. The power grid collapsed again later in the day –– for the fourth time since Friday." Oh, it's not true communism!

An Air Force study says it must focus on countering China. Oddly, the article doesn't mention the need for anti-ship capabilities. Or maybe not odd. Perhaps the call is to just bomb somebody else. Huh, in the study only two mentions of "anti-ship" and both refer to Chinese missiles. Same stuff. Different map.

I don't believe we can bribe North Korea into abandoning support for Russia, but yeah: "Divided by ideological differences, and opposing medium-term goals, the new 'axis of evil' is hardly an axis at all." Sure, they all fear we'll thwart their aims. They are not an alliance. Just an angry chorus.

Revive our economy and the floundering BRICS will disintegrate.

I hate to enter politics, but since this is clearly a reference to using the National Guard and possibly regular troops to stop rioters and not rivals--a mission well within their roles--I have to question the author's trustworthiness. I mean, Antifa and their ilk rioted at Trump's first inauguration.

Moldova narrowly voted to move closer to EU membership despite Russian efforts to derail that. When Russia is threatening, even joining the EU is a good idea.

Goodlife: "Israeli security agencies on Monday said they had uncovered and stopped an Iranian spy ring operating out of northern Israel after seven Israeli citizens were detained over allegations of working to aid Jerusalem’s top adversary."

Will the army parasite tolerate this? "Pakistan’s ruling coalition approved a set of changes in the Constitution early Monday morning, in a show of strength in parliament by cutting the powers of the top judiciary to appoint its chief."

Probably: "[Sinwar's] death therefore will be a major psychological blow which in some will undermine the will to continue the fight." Killing Hitler in 1940 wouldn't have mattered. In 1945 after Germany was smashed up, it mattered a lot. Peace requires Gazans to get the war they celebrated--good and hard. 

Will Georgians really vote to re-enter the gulag?

Palau. Becoming more important every day.

Additional ammunition and an unknown number of M113 armored personnel carriers, among other aid for Ukraine.

Valuable training opportunities for the Army Typhon missile system in the Philippines.

The Burke lives on. It's a good ship but getting old. And there's no replacement on the horizon. 

What's going on in Cuba? Have they had enough of "Not true communism"?

The proposed Montana super battleship was a waste of resources better spent elsewhere, even during World War II. Alas, the author doesn't take the next step to consider today's money suck.

Force... Decline: "A new [CRS] report brings harsh scrutiny to the Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030, with many in Congress and the Department of Defense reportedly having buyer’s remorse." Helping the Navy sink Chinese ships isn't a bad idea. But not all Marines! There was another way.

It's interesting balancing writing on two platforms. I've gotten to the point where my links go both ways. But I still have to restrain myself from making TDR posts Tuesday through Saturday too long. And so far, I have more than enough material for Tuesday to Friday posts on TDR:E. They're still stacked up.

I don't know why there is an attitude that losing any of our decades-old Abrams or F-16s should be impossible: "If any of them survive the war [in Ukraine], 'they probably weren't used to their maximum extent,' a warfare expert said." Exactly. The problem is lack of replacements to keep using them. 

Oh? "Ukrainian drone maker Wild Hornets is developing an interceptor designed to counter Russia's Shahed-136 loitering munitions, The Telegraph reported." Friggin' fighter drones! 

Thank you, Germany! "The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the German ambassador on Tuesday to protest against the opening of a new German Navy headquarters that aims to bolster NATO's defence readiness in the Baltic Sea region." I believe I've often asked Germany to dominate the Baltic Sea. 

Blowback: "South Korean armed forces’ 'Voice of Freedom' has been broadcasting around-the-clock to North Koreans that their troops are deployed to Russia to support the invasion of Ukraine[.]" And South Korea promises more consequences for Russia renting North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine. 

Huh: "Germany and the U.K. plan to sign a new defense agreement on Wednesday that will see the two countries develop new long-range strike weapons, prioritize securing NATO’s eastern flank and field a new class of drones for accompanying their ... tank formations[.]" British Army of the Vistula to follow?

Peacekeeping: "Nearly 200 Oregon National Guard soldiers with the 1st Battalion, 186th Infantry Regiment have been mobilized to deploy to the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt for a peacekeeping mission[.]" The MFO is not a UN mission.

Note that Iraq continues to help us kill jihadis: "Two U.S. troops were injured in a joint raid with Iraqi security forces that Baghdad said killed the Islamic State terrorist group's leader and eight other senior leaders, according to the Pentagon." How easily our victory is overlooked.

Should Trump win, I suspect this will be one way to sell--not give--weapons to Ukraine: "The U.K. has approved a £2.26 billion military loan for Ukraine using the profits from frozen Russian assets[.]"

That's lovely: "Australia announced this week it was buying $4.7 billion in American-made SM-2 and SM-6 missiles — two of the world’s most advanced air defense interceptors — in a colossal foreign military sale." But is production enough for our operational needs now?

Pain: "Invading Ukraine in 2022 proved to be a disaster for the Russian economy." Casualties and men fleeing Russia, sanctions, and increased war spending.

Uh oh: "North Korea is demanding help with its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs. This angers China ...  Not only is China reducing economic cooperation with Russia but is also raising the issue of extensive portions of Russia’s Far Eastern Pacific coastal provinces that are claimed by China." Uh oh.

Ukrainians sabotage Russia's railroads. 

The mission of North Korea's 12,000 troops sent to fight for Russia is unclear. The sure aren't true special forces. Seemingly they are decent light infantry assumed to be loyal enough not to desert. But if Putin uses them like Russian troops who lose a thousand troops per day, the North Koreans won't last long.

Iran's 45 years of terrorism: "On November 4, 1979, Iranian students among other Islamic (Shia) revolutionaries attacked and took over the U.S. Embassy at Tehran, taking fifty-plus American hostages." Cut the Gordian Knot.

When the empire won't protect a province: "Belarusian border guards are said to be waving migrants through as part of an attempt to destabilise Poland and the EU. So in response, Tusk has announced ‘the temporary suspension of the right to asylum on [Polish] territory’" Tusk?! Is the EU "falling apart"?

Make sure that "when the fighting stops" it is because Russia lost and not won: "When the fighting stops Russia will retain a sizeable population, albeit with deep demographic issues, substantial capabilities, and most damningly, an unbridled imperial mindset."

The military's logistics shortcomings for a war across the western Pacific.

Assets are tight: "With a new commander in Miami and a new administration coming in Washington, it is time for U.S. policymakers to (finally) provide SOUTHCOM with the assets it needs to fully perform its mission." AFRICOM's motto is "Thank God for SOUTHCOM!" How about The SOUTHCOM Queen?

Sh*t got real: "U.S. and Filipino marines used live fire Tuesday to rehearse their defense against a hostile amphibious landing, less than 150 miles from the August scene of a coast guard clash between China and U.S.-ally the Philippines."

Well let's hope we can use that data better than an enemy: "In a future war, Army tanks growling around the battlefield may be able to send live data back to their headquarters showing every time they fire a round or burn a gallon of fuel." I worry we will neglect defending the data while moving the data.

Australia to send surplus Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

U.S. and Filipino marines used live fire Tuesday to rehearse their defense against a hostile amphibious landing, less than 150 miles from the August scene of a coast guard clash between China and U.S.-ally the Philippines.

Read more at: https://www.stripes.com/theaters/asia_pacific/2024-10-23/kamandag-philippines-palawan-invasion-15598204.html?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru
Source - Stars and Stripes

Via Instapundit, does Russia's military face collapse by 2026 from weapon shortages? Well, operations would slow down before that. But a morale collapse is possible at any time. It likely nearly happened in autumn 2022. That said, such a prediction could easily be for the purpose of bolstering Ukrainian morale.

Senior retired officers go way outside their lane to claim political expertise. This is a dangerous trend unlikely to reverse serious concerns about our general and flag officers.

Ukraine's thermite-dropping Dragon Drone. I suspect its value is more of a morale booster in the face of Russia's widespread use of chemical weapons that combine riot control agents and deadly pesticide.

Japan continues to expand its fleet.

A defended border is fundamental to defending America. And quiet, secure borders are a foundation for power projection.

Well, sure: "Canada’s continued underinvestment leaves its NATO obligations unmet and weakens the overall defense of both the alliance as a whole and the North American continent. Canadians deserve better[.]" But taking off to the Great White North may be its core mission.

The Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia alliance is aimed at Ethiopia. The GERD Nile dam in Ethiopia is Egypt's worry. Where will this lead if regional countries line up?

Russia and North Korea are formalizing defense ties with a treaty. Is this for justifying North Korean troops sent to fight Ukraine for Russia? Or is it really aimed at China? With maybe the Tumen River issue triggering this response? 

I'm sure this is intended to "Trump-proof" aid to Ukraine for a while: "The U.S. on Wednesday finalized its $20 billion portion of a long-awaited $50 billion loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets" But I suspect it is something Trump would be fine with to fund purchases from American defense industry.

Indonesia confronts China's South China Sea subliminal offensive: "The Indonesian National Armed Forces said its Maritime Security Agency's command and control center detected China's coast guard ship at the southern edge of the South China Sea, on Monday."

Palau: "From Oct. 10-11, 2024, the U.S. Army’s 25th Infantry Division conducted an airfield seizure exercise as part of the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 25-01." Rangers went in first. The exercise seemed to focus on HIMARS and "missiles," implying a temporary A2/AD outpost.

WTAF? "The Biden-Harris administration has promoted the senior Pentagon employee who was outed as a member of an Iranian government-run influence operation, Politico reported." The AF. And how many Iranian assets are there?

Hmmm: "With only four remaining publicly owned naval shipyards and a handful of private shipyards that are near their capacity, the United States must consider turning to foreign shipbuilders." We should expand capacity with robotics and innovative construction procedures that match past innovation.

Size matters: "REFORPAC, the large-scale exercise in the Pacific planned for summer 2025, will be on a scale unseen by the Air Force in recent memory: nearly 300 aircraft spread across 25 locations."

Coastal defense: "'It controls the straights into the Sulu Sea and into the South China Sea and West Philippine Sea,' he told Stars and Stripes while standing on Palawan’s western shore Tuesday."

Hello: "Two American destroyers, armed with missiles, were sent by an aircraft carrier group to the Barents Sea on Monday, conducting maritime operations on Russia's Arctic doorstep."

The shape of a sea campaign in the Strait of Hormuz takes shape: "U.S. Navy and United Arab Emirates drone operations wrapped up Thursday after a 10-day exercise in the Persian Gulf, where Iran was hosting its own maritime showcase on the opposite side of the strategic waterway." Eventually.

Is the solution to the Army's recruiting problem setting lower physical standards for non-combat troops? Maybe. But lifting stuff and stamina are needed by everyone. And sh*t happens. I worry that this simply means we'd have a much smaller true combat Army with civilians in uniform in the support units.

Vietnam is vying with China on island expansion: "Vietnam aimed to leverage its island construction to strengthen control over the Spratlys, as it was likely to establish a constant presence of maritime enforcement vessels and expand the deployment of military facilities there." Defend them.

Huh: "Fearing China will deploy hypersonic weapons to sink ships in the Pacific, the U.S. Navy is moving forward with a plan to arm some of its vessels with Patriot interceptor missiles[.]" The worry is prudent.

Interesting that Iraq is turning to America for help as Chinese investments dry up. I guess the "China is replacing America" claim is dead. Iran wants investments to capture rather than flare natural gas to end reliance on Iranian gas exports. Does Iraq recognize China won't help Iraq resist Iran's influence? 

DEI wrecked recruiting: "The veteran community has lost faith in the country’s national-security leadership. The military is a family business—80% of volunteers have a family member who served." The military earned loss of confidence. The problem isn't recruit attitudes. It's leaders who shaped the attitudes.

Via Instapundit, fix officer education: "Refocus the service academies on disciplines related to warfighting and engineering." Yeah: "Any undergrad degree other than engineering should be banned. And enforce the Honor Code. And while we're add it, figure out what we're doing wrong with flag officer education."

Sweden acts to reverse migration flows that caused multiple crises provoked by a decade of high immigration with low assimilation. 

Ukraine strikes petroleum and railroad targets inside Russia to disrupt logistics. The West continues to supply Ukraine and provide intelligence while Russia has to buy support from China and North Korea. Things are getting worse inside Russia but Putin maintains the loyalty of security forces.

The Coast Guard tries to figure out how to carry out its missions, replace old ships, and maintain the aging ships with a tight budget.

Why the F-35 gets undeserved media coverage. Good points. Unmentioned is the old Russian disinformation campaign that tried to get the program canceled before the plane was produced. Maybe the effect of that propaganda lingers on, too. Users seem very happy with the plane.

Cuba blames its problems on America's embargo on trade with Cuba. The U.S. reports that as nonsense. My memory is that our embargo is looser now. And more importantly the rest of the world ignores it.

Ukraine's main problem is manpower. Still, I will remind you that Iran did not defeat Iraq; Russia withdrew from Afghanistan; China could not defeat America in South Korea; and America withdrew from South Vietnam and Afghanistan. Larger population doesn't mean you can lose men at the same ratio.

Is Iran deterred by Israel's aerial strike on Iran? Who knows how nutballs on a mission from Allah think? I prefer to destroy capabilities rather than try to deter an enemy from using their capabilities. Below the nuclear threshold, of course. After the next Iranian barrage, Israel hits nukes, energy, or leadership targets.

This author speaks of the "Biden-Harris regime’s intense unrequited love for the Islamic Republic of Iran[.]" It really is a mystery. Deploying American troops to protect Israel is just as much about protecting Iran from Israel.

Russia's "shadow fleet" is one way Russia evades energy export sanctions: "By early 2024, Russia had acquired more than 600 old tankers to continue these operations."

Russia has inferior communications compared to Ukraine. Russia is resorting to black market Starlink terminals to close the gap. Starlink and Ukraine are working to prevent that but Russia works hard to keep the terminals working.

The pro-Russian Georgian Dream party won their election in Georgia, but by too small a margin to enact constitutional changes. Voting to re-enter the gulag is bizarre. There are indications of voting fraud.

Europe Disappoints Macron

Europe is faltering against America and even against stalling China. Macron and EU royalty hardest hit.

Macron warned the EU to plan its glorious future. It did not: 

‘What we need is a long-term economic and political strategy,’ declared Macron. ‘And our challenge within the eurozone is to work out how to make it an economic power which can compete with China and the United States, and how to achieve what for the past ten years we have failed to do: to create jobs and ensure that today’s generation.’

That failure now extends to 17 years and there is little sign that the EU will stir itself anytime soon and compete with China and the USA.

And competing with Russia? Clearly a lower level problem as it is unmentioned notwithstanding Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine that European economic power is not being harnessed to defeat.

Also, why import so many migrants into Europe over the past decade when the problem is creating jobs?

And I'm not digressing at all.

I think Macron's plan to make Europe great again is futile. The EU only wants the power to compete.

I believe the EU apparatchiki would sacrifice any number of their subjects in a Treaty of Brest-Litovsk 2.0 to gain the power they desire to finally strip away the prefix of their proto-imperial project.

Note, too, from the linked article the reported American urge to walk away from Europe. 

That's also no digression. That's what the EU apparatchiki want. So they aren't warning about America disengaging from Europe as much as they are trying to provoke it.

As for Macron? Tough luck for him.

Nobody who values freedom should worship the EU. The EU seeks to crush dissent.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: The image was mined from my old DALL-E 3 account.

New Nukes

Ever since the Soviet Union collapsed, I've read some authors bizarrely saying they missed the "simplicity" of the Cold War when we knew good from evil (and no, "we" didn't, because there is always "goodlife" ready to praise evil). They were fools. I never pined for that so-called "clarity". I really miss the end of history.

Sh*t got real: 

The US Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has recently confirmed the successful production of the First Production Unit (FPU) of a plutonium pit for the W87-1 Modification Program.

The W87-1 warhead will replace the older W78 warhead, ensuring that the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) leg of the nuclear triad remains safe, secure, and effective.

So ICBM nuclear warhead production is being turned back on. 

The end of history is officially re-started.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

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NOTE: The image was made with Bing.

Why is China Bothering to Operate in the Arctic Region?

If America can't block China from traversing the Bering Strait during war, we're just not trying. Does China want to operate in the north just to rub Russia's face in the slush because they can?

Image By Nzeemin - This PNG graphic was created with Inkscape ., CC BY-SA 3.0,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=22788433

China's coast guard is operating in the Bering Sea now:

China’s Coast Guard is for the first time operating in the Bering Sea as Beijing increasingly uses the Northern Sea Route for shipping, the U.S. commander of the 17th Coast Guard District said this week.

Two Chinese Coast Guard vessels, accompanied by two Russian Border Guard patrol vessels, were identified by a HC-130J Super Hercules crew from Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak, district commander Rear Adm. Megan Dean said in a news release. The crew observed the four ships about 440 miles southwest of St. Lawrence Island.

“This marked the northernmost location where Chinese Coast Guard vessels have been observed by the U.S. Coast Guard,” the release noted.

The Chinese Coast Guard said in a statement that the joint patrols “significantly expanded” its operational range in the Arctic, allowing its vessels to operate in unfamiliar maritime environments.

For more than a decade, China has claimed status as a “Near Arctic” power with substantial commercial and scientific interests in the region and demanded a voice in future Arctic governance. Taking a step in that direction, in 2018 China announced that it intended to develop a Polar Silk Road to cut sailing times between Europe and Asia, as it’s doing now to avoid the ongoing attacks on international shipping in the Middle East.

Mind you, that's south of the Bering Strait. Yet even trade routes that use the Arctic north of the Bering Strait won't make Chinese lines of supply to Europe secure. Even if their ships made it past NATO military power from Portugal to Norway, and then entered safe Russian waters after avoiding NATO air power in Finland, China would still need to make it through the Bering Strait.

Then traverse the Bering Sea. And we did react recently to show we can do something about intruders.

And that's before China hits the final leg through Japanese and South Korean territorial waters--American allies--and avoid the American fleet and land-based air power. 

And it doesn't even address Chinese energy supplies from the Middle East if the Middle East region itself is too dangerous for shipping. For all the talk of Chinese influence in the Middle East, the Chinese sure haven't calmed down the region to make their trade routes to and through the region safer.

I mean, if we can't prevent China from using the Polar Silk Road during a war, we really aren't trying.

Why Russia would let China operate in the Arctic is interesting. Basically China told Russia that it must help China. And Russia is in no position to do anything but bow down and agree. Is that the entire point?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

We Are Not Amused at Air Force Priorities

The Air Force wants manna from Heaven.

The Air Force is interested in extremely rapid resupply:

The space infrastructure company Sierra Space announced Oct. 3 it has secured backing from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to advance its “Ghost” spacecraft, a system designed to deliver cargo from space to any location on Earth in under 90 minutes.

Known for developing space habitats and vehicles like the Dream Chaser spaceplane, Sierra Space won a contract of undisclosed value as part of the AFRL’s Rocket Experimentation for Global Agile Logistics (REGAL) program. The Air Force is exploring the potential of space vehicles to rapidly transport critical supplies from orbital warehouses back to Earth. This could include reusable reentry vehicles capable of delivering payloads from prepositioned stocks in orbit.

Oh FFS. We'll spend money to put supplies in space so we can get it to Earth quickly? And we'll either know what we'll need or put lots in orbit to cover any contingency? The reasons given for why we might need that capability are BS. Not even SpaceX makes that cost effective.

And it is interesting that the Air Force is seeking a mission that you'd think Space Force should have--if it made sense. Which it doesn't. It isn't just the Army that the Air Force jealously guards its turf from.

Yes, yes, I know Space Force is officially within the Department of the Air Force. Yet the Air Force was once a part of the Army. The Air Force apparently wants to nip any future problems in the bud by not making an Army-like problem that exacerbates different priorities for air power.

Any mission that requires 90 minutes to resupply--with a tiny amount of supplies that a reentry vehicle could carry--is already doomed. Spend the money on C-17s.

The idea is such a waste of money even for the Pentagon that if it goes forward it must hide something else.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

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Learning From the Winter War of 2022

The Army is working to learn lessons from the Ukrainian in how to use drones. Which is good. But I don't want to make the mistake of thinking the Winter War of 2022 provides the entire lesson for drone use.

Col. Nick Ryan, director of the Army Capability Manager for Unmanned Aircraft Systems is attempting to incorporate lessons from Ukraine about using drones:

One of the lessons learned is that drones can’t just be sensing platforms anymore. “They all have to be multifunctional. They all have to be lethal. They all have to be capable of doing many things at the same time,” he said.

There also has to be a universal controller that can guide any drone the Army acquires, he said.

And soldiers down to the platoon level must be able to act without having to ask higher headquarters to deconflict airspace.

In Ukraine, “they are free to shoot whatever they want, launch whatever they want, because that’s as fast as they’re seeing targets. And if they don’t, either that target is going to move or they’re going to be targeted and shot before they can do something about it,” Ryan said.

I like those lessons, especially the ability to use initiative to use drones without waiting for higher echelon input or permission--including using the asset itself as the weapon.

But.

It seems to me that Ukraine uses drones--especially the famous FPV drones--because it lacks other assets to fight with. The Army would have a lot more to fight using combined arms; and has capable sister services able to provide joint support. As I observed about small drone usage:

I don't believe they are supplanting artillery because of intrinsic superiority. While drones seem useful, part of their so-called dominance has been caused by a decline in artillery availability. That is significant.

I'll wait to see how ramped up artillery ammo and gun barrel liner production--and new drone counter-measures--affect the post-introduction FPV drone advantage. The God of War is not so easily spurned.

And it seems to me that the static nature of the fighting enhances the value of the drones.

But absolutely, drones should be part of the force. Whether or not drones will have such an out-sized impact as they are having right now in the long run in different types of ground combat and with counter-measures developed and deployed seems doubtful to me. But they will be an important addition, just as anti-tank missiles became important without being an ever-elusive silver bullet solution.

I'm certainly satisfied that the Army is seeking to learn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Just don't think it is the entire universe of teachers.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.

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The Winter War of 2022 Shows the Value of the Gift of Time

Russia's ground forces were teetering in the autumn of 2022 in that first year of invasion after heavy casualties, faltering logistics, and the shock of being in a war rather than a victory parade. But even then I worried that failure to exploit that weakness would allow Russia time to repair its military. And here we are.

Russia continues to attack and Ukraine is trying to hold territory in the Donbas and even inside Russia at the Kursk salient until mud reduces the ability to move. I've long thought of the Kursk Incursion as a long raid that Ukraine would abandon when it attracted too much Russian firepower that otherwise could have been employed in the Donbas while the weather is good enough. Has Ukraine forgotten this is a raid and learned to defend it at all costs to justify losses so far? If so, that's a potential huge mistake.

On the other hand, I retain hopes that the real purpose of this raid is too soak up Russian troops to allow Ukraine to launch a major counterattack to pinch off the flanks of the Russian salient pushing toward Pokrovsk with such determination.

Or Russia simply has enough troops to keep up the pressure everywhere and Ukraine is simply holding on until next year when the situation will hopefully be better for Ukraine. Will it?

In October 2022 I was worried that Ukraine's advantage on the battlefield was fleeting:

Hell, if Ukraine can't press its hard-won advantage in the next few months to compel Russia to retreat from Ukraine, I don't rule out that Russia might eventually mobilize enough to achieve what I projected in that pre-war assessment. 

Remember that I chose my term for the war because I worried that the template might be the Winter War of 1939-1940, when Finland initially humbled the Soviet military but in the end was ground down by the Soviets who regrouped and battered Finland down with firepower and troops, albeit while enduring heavy Soviet casualties. 

My pre-war assessment was that Russia could plow its way to Dnepr River with a slow, firepower-reliant offensive. But Russia didn't do that. It was confident it could roll over a weak Ukraine without the will to resist; and that the West would do nothing of importance to thwart Putin's glorious plan.

But Putin has recovered from his autumn 2022 nadir. If Western support for Ukraine is insufficient to overcome Russia's continuing rebuilding effort, we shall see renewed calls to appease Russia under the guise that America and NATO "provoked" Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

A bright side is that Russia's failure to rapidly conquer Ukraine in February 2022 has given the West the gift of time to restore its military and military production capacity. And I can't imagine China is very happy with Russia for that bit of collateral damage to whatever plans China has for the PLA.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Ukraine committed its Abrams-equipped 47th Brigade to the Kursk Incursion salient. I suspect this is for the purpose of covering a retreat to more defensible positions. But who knows if Ukraine feels it has to hold any territory it has taken and refuses to take one step back. The latter risks losing troops as POWs.

In general, I've hoped Ukraine was starving the front, allowing Russia to broadly claw forward, in order to build a reserve for a significant local counter-attack. Time is running out for that hope. Maybe Ukraine has simply been hanging on with everything it has until winter, hoping it can prepare for next year.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Blowback: "South Korea is considering supplying 'offensive' weapons to Ukraine in response to the strengthening of military ties between North Korea and Russia, officials said on Tuesday."

UPDATE (Wednesday): War crime:

A Russian milblogger also posted footage and openly claimed on October 20 that Russian forces are using chloropicrin (a pesticide and lung damaging agent) against Ukrainian forces. The US Department of State announced on May 1 that it had determined that Russian forces are using chloropicrin and riot control agents (RCAs) in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), to which Russia is a signatory.

I'll say again, the West is safer when Russia is as far east as possible.

UPDATE (Thursday): Interesting:

Russian and Ukrainian artillery fires is now about one-to-two in favor of Russian forces — a significant reduction from one-to-seven or one-to-eight in early 2024 and from one-to-three at the start of Summer 2024.

Ukrainian rear area strikes may have contributed to this. Unless Russian operations are slowing with the worsening weather conditions or other reasons.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: The image was made with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and sharing links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.    

Evil bastards: "Russian forces recently executed nine Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast amid a theater-wide increase in Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs." To deter Ukrainians from surrendering? Or to provoke Ukrainian retaliation to reduce Russian surrenders? Or just evil?

The war on terror continues: "American forces hit multiple ISIS camps across Syria on Oct. 11, in one of the larger military operations against the group in recent months, U.S. Central Command announced today."

Cyber war: "The U.S. has an edge in the number of commercial security firms and freelance experts it can enlist for the war effort. Likewise, China openly encourages its hackers to go out and practice on foreigners, especially the Japanese and the United States."

Mystery drones are flying unimpeded over American bases here at home. Our homeland is no longer a sanctuary. And don't believe our fleet can't be Pearl Harbored. 

Egypt and Sudan, who have the most interest in the Nile GERD dam, did not sign: "A regional partnership of 10 countries says an agreement on the equitable use of water resources from the Nile River basin has come into force despite the notable opposition of Egypt." Does that deter Egypt or make it belligerent?

Uh oh? "Chinese scientists have successfully mounted what they claim is the world’s first effective attack using a quantum computer on widely used encryption methods, according to a report from the South China Morning Post (SCMP)."

The Navy took a step toward reloading VLS cells at sea: "The successful demonstration marks a critical step in the capability to rearm warships at sea—a top priority outlined by Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro." Good if enough ships survive combat. And if we have enough missiles to reload them.

Progress? "Soldiers of the 25th Infantry Division are testing the Army’s new Infantry Squad Vehicle during a two-week exercise in Hawaii that ends Thursday." I say make a damn choice about whether you are leg infantry or motorized infantry! This path leads to the unit being neither and failing at both.

Ukraine uses inexpensive VAMPIRE anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down drones.

Germany will halt shipments of heavy combat vehicles from its own (inadequate) stockpile to Ukraine after current commitments completed.

The waning Pax Americana in the Middle East? Just when has here been much peace in the Middle East and when did America guarantee it? Like always, we support the good guys (or least bad guys) and hope we can keep the violence down to a dull roar.

Von Der Leyen leads the EU into the late Soviet stage: "the Commission President has set the stage for an unprecedented supranational 'power grab' that will further centralise authority in Brussels — specifically in the hands of von der Leyen herself." This is bad. Very bad. And I've been issuing warnings a long time.

A rare Army THAAD is going to defend Israel because we don't have enough Navy SM-3s?  Oh: "Navy leadership has said that it needs many more SM-3s to counter threats in the Pacific, like China, but it's burning through these weapons in conflicts in the Middle East without sufficient plans to replace them." 

The Army is training its division "missile magnet" headquarters to survive long enough on a more deadly battlefield to actually command their subordinate units in combat.

Redesigning the infantry brigade from the squad up. 

Can the Army minimize the role of soldiers under fire while breaching mine and obstacle barriers? Ukraine was unable to breach extensive Russian barriers, contributing to the failure of their summer 2023 counteroffensive.

America has been in Iceland since World War II. As a NATO member, Iceland "increasingly has partnered with the United States since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hosting a P-8 squadron on a rotational basis and visits by fighter jets and B-2 stealth bombers."

Russian troops invading Ukraine confiscated civilian vehicles because they have too few: "Russian military police noticed this and many of them realized there was an opportunity to make some money by stopping these vehicles at checkpoints and accusing the Russian soldiers of driving unregistered vehicles."

There is a need for such weapons: "Ukrainian drone developers and manufacturers have developed several attack drones to intercept and destroy Russian surveillance and reconnaissance drones." My Army prophecy comes true.

Not enough money to fire at all targets: "Over the past several years, the US Army’s annual budget has remained relatively flat. If that trend continues, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth warned that the service will need to take a hard look at what weapons program to cut." Maybe focus on Army missions?

Good: "The U.S. Army has started diversifying its supplier base for 155mm artillery shells, moving away from the bottleneck of a single source that has endangered the flow of fresh ammo, according to a top service official." We're progressing but behind schedule on shell production.

China rattled its sabre around Taiwan with 125 warplanes and 34 navy and coast guard ships: "In response, Taiwan’s defense ministry revealed that it had deployed warships, fighter jets, UAVs, and mobile anti-ship missile batteries."

Adding irrelevant data introduces errors into LLM AI: "A new paper from Apple's artificial intelligence scientists has found that engines based on large language models, such as those from Meta and OpenAI, still lack basic reasoning skills." I noted this kind of vulnerability. Tip to Instapundit. 

North Korea may have sent troops to Russia to directly fight Ukraine. What's in it for North Korea? Obviously, cash and dead potential rebels.

Advice: "Doing a Gaza in Lebanon isn’t the answer" for Israel. For a certain class of Westerners, defeating an enemy is never the answer to their violence. It is tragic that Hezbollah is unlawfully using Lebanon as a human shield. But Hezbollah kills Israelis behind that shield. So it's not Israel's biggest problem.

Is this true about Israel's planned retaliation for the October missile barrage from Iran? "Oil and nukes are the priority targets — and the ones Biden has bullied Netanhayu into taking off the table." Could Israel hit missiles andproduction facilities, Revolutionary Guard leaders, and naval assets? Where are Israel's subs?

Russian subliminal warfare: "Poland's plans to temporarily suspend the right to asylum are based on the assumption that neighbouring Belarus is seeking to push a large number of migrants towards the country's shared border, deputy Interior Minister Maciej Duszczyk says."

Is a months-long Chinese blockade really a good idea for China when I believe China would like to defeat Taiwan--and carefully define defeat--before America can lead an allied intervention? A blockade guarantees America will get time to gather forces from around the globe and rally allies. 

Here we go: "Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Liga reported on October 15, citing anonymous military intelligence sources, that the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade is forming a 3,000-person “battalion” staffed by North Korean citizens (the numerical strength is far beyond a battalion)."

Sh*t got real: "Sweden on Tuesday presented a defense bill that ramps up military spending to 2.4 percent of GDP next year and even higher beyond that — a response to the threat from Russia[.]"

To be fair, the Russians are bastards: "The U.S. Army’s top general in Europe warned this week that Russian operatives making mischief in NATO territory have ratcheted up the risk of military escalation with Moscow."

Sh*t got real: "The Netherlands plans to buy 46 Leopard 2A8 tanks for more than €1 billion (US$1.1 billion), rebuilding a heavy armor capacity just ten years after selling its last tanks to Finland, as it seeks to present a more credible military deterrent to an aggressive Russia.[.]"

It is insane that we insist Israel be the Hamas logistics service: "The Biden administration has warned Israel that it must increase the amount of humanitarian aid it is allowing into Gaza within the next 30 days or it could risk losing access to U.S. weapons funding." Hamas can end this by surrendering.

Sh*t got real: "The Army National Guard must find new ways to train in a limited number of days each year so that their formations are ready to fight large-scale combat operations when called, Army National Guard Director Lt. Gen. Jonathan Stubbs said [.]" 

Corruption flourishes in Russia.

The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service (GRU) has successfully sabotaged facilities inside Russia, recruited Russians, and arrested Russian agents inside Ukraine. 

A call to recognize once independent Somaliland. I've long thought they should be rewarded for managing to restore some order to that region rather than insist the flailing formal central government must do that. But no, Palestinians remain Queen of the Victim Prom. Will you defend Somalia's "colonial" borders?

Good: "As Ukraine struggles to hold off a massive Russian invasion force, the country’s defense industry has experienced an unprecedented boom that is starting to be felt on the front lines." But they can't produce all that they need yet.

Making multidomain warfare relevant to small Army combat units in an exercise "to tie together Army National Guard, Marine Reserve, Air Force, Space Force, special operations forces and conventional units in a series of fast-paced fire missions." If this means a Black Box of Effects, I'm on board.

The Army wants a new cannon: "The Self-Propelled Howitzer Modernization (SPH-M) effort, formerly known as the Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ERCA) program, aims to enhance the range, rate of fire, and overall lethality of self-propelled howitzers."

This Chinese VTOL will carry 10 people (an infantry squad or cargo): "United Aircraft intends for the drone to fly at up to 340 miles an hour, with a maximum range of 2,400 miles and a cruising altitude of up to 25,000 feet." Tell me again that China needs lots of amphibious warfare ships to invade Taiwan.

The U.S. announced another military aid package for Ukraine, mostly ammunition. 

The Army's Typhon missile system recently deployed to the Philippines isn't as mobile as the Army would like. The Army should think about whether it is likely the Air Force will find the time to move its weaponry before building them and assuming the Air Force will come for their missile of dreams, eh?

China won't agree to a "code of conduct" for its forces at sea unless it is understood that China will do whatever it wants to press its subliminal offensive in the South China Sea and East China Sea. After all, codified versions of allowable conduct are already ignored by China.

The belief one can feed a threat enough to make it permanently content is not just a Western thing: "It’s not just the border. India has a deeper problem with China, and it looks like it’s part of the same problem that other countries have with China: the country has become much more aggressive."

China sideswiped a Philippine vessel: "The collision occurred Friday near Thitu Island, part of the Spratly group, during a patrol by two vessels with the Philippines Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, according to a bureau news release."

Oh? "In the piney woods of Louisiana, one brigade’s new approach to reconnaissance recently illustrated the Army’s plan to undertake more complex and demanding missions with new tech and fewer soldiers." I have issues with that approach.

Sure, this seems fine: "Potential approaches include masking vehicles or hardening them with both active and passive protection tactics." I say use the healing power of  "and". And toss in new tactics the way the Army reacted to Sagger missiles such as last-second tank swerving and firing on the ATGM launch point.

A new Army "Strike" company that "links drone operators to mortars, artillery, and loitering munitions, is 'coming straight out of watching what's going on in Ukraine,' [V Corps commander] said." But does that lesson from a static front translate directly into mobile operations that the Army strives to conduct?

When will the Army embrace hybrid or electric vehicles? Well, for EVs, perhaps when recharging doesn't require 10 hours on a civilian grid, when they are lighter for airlifting, when slight damage to the battery doesn't take the vehicle out of action, and when the batteries don' burn with no ability to extinguish them. 

When I was in the Army National Guard, getting proficient using a protective suit for nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare environments was a high priority. The Army is returning to those training days of yesteryear.

The Army is pushing forward to replace the Bradley with the XM30 Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicle. FWIW, here's my old suggestion in Infantry on reducing the impact of catastrophic kills on an IFV with reachback capabilities.

Why did America use B-2 bombers to strike Houthi targets rather than assets nearby? It's not like Houthi air defenses are robust. I'm going to toss this out. At the end of the current fiscal year, did our B-2 force have spare money in its budget to carry out the strike? Did that drive the choice? Sheer speculation.

We may not be able to sustain a war against our enemies, but we have a brand new acronym! "There’s a new threatening acronym challenging the global order: CRINK."

Sh*t got real: "By the time new soldiers get to their first unit, they have faced being hunted by a swarm of drones, according to the head of U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command." It was just called the FTX when I was in Cold War basic training.

DEVGRU trains in Taiwan: "The Naval Special Warfare Development Group (DEVGRU), formerly known as SEAL Team 6, is the Navy's top-tier special operations outfit." I wonder what strategic targets immune to missiles DEVGRU would target? Maybe Taiwanese airfields and ports that the PLA captures?

Kind of like a high-speed FPV drone swarm, no? "The U.S. Army is looking to give its still-in-development anti-armor guided 155mm artillery shells the ability to ‘collaborate’ with each other to help find their targets and otherwise be more effective." See also Air Force efforts in this light.

Taiwan seeks to avoid decapitation via communications disruption: "The Taiwanese military is testing a satellite-connected setup of drone countermeasures as part of a massive effort to bolster the island’s defenses of critical infrastructure and core communications network amid an uptick in Chinese probing."

Borrowing against their future to restore a Soviet empire of the past: "The wartime casualties in Ukraine caused substantial personnel shortages inside Russia. By 2024 the military losses were so great that the non-military organizations and the workforce were suffering considerable shortages of personnel."

Italy has found a way to stop the flood of illegal migrants. But if the rest of the European Union--with its open internal borders--doesn't also stop the flood, won't illegal migrants just enter overland from the rest of the EU?

To be fair, staying out of NATO and surrendering its Soviet-era nukes to rely on paper agreements with Russia didn't work: "Ukraine’s survival can only be ensured by joining NATO or giving Kyiv nuclear weapons, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said."

Keep it simple, stupid! "Upgrades are making the Army’s battle network easier for soldiers to use, but it’s still not exactly what they’re asking for."

Well that's good: "Raytheon, a subsidiary of the US defence industrial prime RTX, has reached full-rate production of the latest Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) iteration, Block IIA." But it isn't the entire universe of the anti-missile fight any more than Patriot missiles are the only answer ashore.

MacArthur said there is no substitute for victory. The Navy thinks it can divert resources from that mission for a number of substitutes for victory, apparently.

This speaks of another group to arrive: "North Korea has sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia, according to South Korea's spy agency." Is this the same report as the 3,000 deployment one? Also, "special forces" probably just means light infantry. I doubt Kim sent his best to die.

They loudly talk the talk: "This year has seen President Vladimir Putin repeatedly brandish the nuclear sword, reminding everyone that Russia has the world’s largest atomic arsenal to try to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine." Can they walk the walk?

Last week I noted a news blackout from Cuba. This week, I note the national power grid went down: "The crisis marks a new low on an island where life has become increasingly unbearable, with residents already suffering from shortages of food, fuel, water and medicine." No worries. It isn't "true" communism, eh? 

ISW refers to North Korea committing to 12,000 troops in four brigades. North Korea gets cash and/or missile technology help. And ideally for Kim Jong Un those 12,000 die as glorious heroes, eh? I assume they'll plug into Russian logistics--such as they are--as shock troops. Russia pretends they're Russians.

Sure, this is a warning to America: "After years of misguided energy policies, Europe’s electricity has become so expensive that trade unions have started warning of the threat of deindustrialization." But for Europeans worried America will disengage, being less of an objective to fight for is really dumb.

I'm really getting tired of getting spammed with vote reminders by the government. It just seems intrusive and ... Big Brotherish ... since I don't recall giving permission. And I always vote. In federal elections, anyway. Local elections are a lost cause so I don't bother with just that.

Maybe that strategic and operational fiasco was worth it to find out: "US Army boats, which carried out the temporary Gaza pier mission earlier this year, are poorly maintained and largely unprepared to meet the military’s growing mission in the Pacific, a new government oversight report said this week."

Ouch! That loss to Illinois hurt. It was a winnable game. Two long failed drives that failed to score plus a couple turnovers that led to Illinois scores provide the points to win. All we can do is ruin other teams' hopes. Can we? We have a good defense and good individual players on offense. Is this coaching failure?

War: "Israel’s government said a drone targeted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s house Saturday, with no casualties[.]"

War by other means: "Chinese hackers are now responsible for over a third of the hacking activities worldwide."

America will send leftovers from the war on terror campaigns and make more: "Ukraine is the latest country to adopt aerostat (aerodynamic unpowered blimp) systems that use a 30-76 meter long, helium filled, unmanned blimp equipped with radar and other sensors and equipment. 

This hits on a number of features of our recent foreign and defense policy--mostly negative but some positive--that I've addressed. Tip to Instapundit.

Huh: "Documents purported to show classified U.S. intelligence gathering on Israel's preparations for a potential retaliatory strike on Iran appeared on social media platforms this week." Why bother leaking it when Iran has been hired by infiltrated the White House?

Well, life can really suck when Hezbollah uses your entire country as a human shield and you cooperate with the terrorists: "Beirut's southern suburbs a place of pitch darkness, piles of rubble[.]" I feel bad for the civilians. But Israel is under no legal or moral obligation to respect human shields.