The Biden administration wants Germany and France to take charge of European defenses so America does not need to have as big a role. Will Germany's election produce a fragile and fractured coalition that undermines that goal?
In this scenario, President Joe Biden’s plan to outsource the stability of Europe to Berlin and Paris will bear close watching. Washington and Berlin may find working together far more difficult. It may take a great deal more work than previously imagined to keep the transatlantic community stable in the era of great-power competition.
Remember, a German-French partner is all about strengthening the proto-imperial European Union and weaken the still-sovereign states (barely, as the difficulty even powerful Britain had in getting out) that make it up. The EU wants desperately to strip away the prefix before other EU members head for the exits.
The European Union's eagerness to promote a renewed Iran nuclear deal can perhaps seem perplexing: "European Union negotiators said international talks that resumed Saturday on the Iran nuclear agreement were on track to revive the deal, which crumbled after the United States withdrew in 2018." Why is the EU so eager to revive a deal that is so obviously flawed? One so flawed that it Iran has had no problems threatening nuclear breakout with the nuclear infrastructure the 2015 deal allowed Iran to keep? I think the reason is that the EU simply wants a win as the diplomatic representative of "Europe". The EU apparatchiki don't care what the deal is. They want to increase their power to push forward their ambition to strip the prefix from their proto-imperial EU project.
I shudder to think what the EU apparatchiki would surrender to get that sovereign power? Chinese control of European telecommunications? Ukraine? Belarus? Some of the new NATO countries in the east that can be safely thrown to the Russian wolves to preserve the "real" European countries farther from Russia's grasp?
Would the EU agree to a new version of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk that offers their enemies territorial and diplomatic concessions to ensure the creation and consolidation of the EU Empire?
But even if Germany is willing to be the brawn backing France's brains leading the EU, why does Biden think that a strong "Europe"--defined as one governed by a strong EU--would have objectives aligned with American interests? As I wrote in this data dump:
Anybody promoting European "strategic autonomy" is essentially advocating for less American influence in Europe. Strategic autonomy means a European Union empire with its own military that weakens and guts NATO, which is the true force for defending Europe. Don't discount the effects of America's influence on keeping Europe friendly and free.
This "leading from behind" on a massive scale is dangerous for America's security. If Biden thinks problems across the Atlantic were the fault of Trump, Biden is in for a rude awakening. The EU wants America--even under Biden--out of Europe to hollow out the rival defense structure of NATO.
And under the EU's direct control, we will see yet another threat to America grow in Europe.
Have a super sparkly day.
