Russia's military presence in the Mediterranean Sea is nice for diplomatic efforts but during war is less than pointless. It seems more suited to bolstering Russian self esteem.
Since Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, alarms have been sounded about the Kremlin’s ambitions and military capabilities in the Mediterranean. These alarms have been unfounded.; Russian capabilities in the Middle East and the Mediterranean region are modest, and the Kremlin’s ambitions there are constrained by geography and geopolitics, limited resources, a transactional approach to relationships, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO’s) formidable force posture on its southern flank. As much as Russia may aspire to regional domination, it lacks the means to achieve this goal.
I've been saying for a while that I don't worry about Russia's Mediterranean forces:
I don't worry. A Russian flotilla based in the Mediterranean Sea will lead a short but exciting life during a war. Russia doesn't need a blue water fleet and trying to cling to one is foolish.
Personally I prefer to have Russian defense resources diverted away from the Baltic Sea area to a place where NATO and other allies unlikely to help in the Baltic Sea region (like Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey (?), and to a lesser extent France) can destroy some of Russia's military power in the Mediterranean Sea.
Heck, Ukraine should probably consider Syria their first line of defense.
How much of Russia's Syria commitment has been done to justify the conquest of Crimea in the face of NATO opposition and economic punishment?
Back when American aircraft carriers and SSBNs could launch nuclear strikes on the USSR, it made sense for the Soviets to contest the eastern Mediterranean Sea to keep our nukes out of range. That made sense even with Turkey, a NATO member, closing the straits to the Soviets. A nuclear war would not last as long as a naval campaign in the Mediterranean Sea. If the Soviets could hold off a nuclear strike from the Mediterranean until the Red Army could reach the Rhine River, the moment for nuclear war might pass.
But now, what's the point for Russia of winning there when nuclear-armed carriers and SSBNs aren't a Mediterranean problem? And for anything else, no gain will last because as long as Turkey is hostile to Russia, Russian access is highly insecure. Only Russian control of the Turkish straits would fix that problem.
Barring a collapse of a number of NATO Mediterranean Sea states, Russia's position there is always under threat. A lot of NATO naval and air power sits in the western and central Mediterranean Sea, and would be largely out of any war far away in the Baltics or Poland. Sinking the Russians just gives the southern NATO navies and supporting aircraft something to do during a war.
Russia is not a wealthy country. I'm fine with them spreading out their military power more thinly and away from the critical Baltic Sea front.
You go, girl!
