The multi-war in Syria (it has been too complicated to describe as just a civil war) doesn't make the news but it lingers on, with a flare up a spark away.
The multi-war in Syria is shaking up after the defeat of Assad's enemies:
For centuries Turkey, Iran and Russia were all antagonists, not allies and the seeming “alliance” in Syria was all a mirage. All three of these allies are scheming against their allies. Russia notes that Turkey is selling weapons to Ukraine, where Russian forces are still at war with Ukraine. Turkey is also trying to repair its damaged relationship with NATO, and that means reneging on weapons purchases from Russia and other forms of anti-Russian behavior. Russia is sticking it to Iran by backing Israel and the efforts of Arab states to replace Iran as the protector of the Assad government.
Assad wants his northwest back. Jihadis remain there shielded by Turkey. Russian-Turkish strains could make the northwest heat up again. While Assad doesn't want to suffer casualties, he wants the territory back. Starving out the jihadis and the people there is the preferred method of winning. But one big terror attack by the jihadis could provoke a more kinetic response. Which could get out of hand.
Russia looks the other way while Israel hammers Iran inside Syria. But Russia is willing to pretend that its weapons are blocking the Israelis:
In northern Syria (Aleppo) an Israeli airstrike destroyed several Iranian warehouses containing weapons and ammunition for Iran-backed militias. The bombs set off large secondary explosions because of the explosive items in some of the warehouses. The noise and fires were visible from the city. Tw0 days late Russia claimed that Syria shot down seven of the eight air-to-surface missiles launched from four F-16s.
And don't forget the American-led coalition presence in eastern Syria. Originally sent in to defeat ISIL, America now shields the Syrian Kurds and other opponents of Assad. And the presence now shields Iraq by keeping ISIL from rising up again in Syria's east.
Assad is unlikely to just let that territory go. So America needs to decide what we are willing to fight and die for there before our troops are fighting and dying.
UPDATE: Still no decision:
The Biden administration is pulling all American troops out of Afghanistan and formally transitioning to an advisory role in Iraq. But the U.S. military operation in Syria has seen no changes — and officials expect hundreds of troops to remain in the country for the foreseeable future.
Roughly 900 U.S. troops, including a number of Green Berets, will remain in Syria to continue supporting and advising the Syrian Democratic Forces fighting the Islamic State — the same role they have played since the American-led intervention in 2014, according to a senior Biden administration official.
My pucker factor goes up when I think about this subliminal war front.
