I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and sharing links. I continue posting here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I'm also occasionally posting short data dump items on my Substack "Notes" section.
Evil bastards: "Russian forces recently executed nine Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast amid a theater-wide increase in Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs." To deter Ukrainians from surrendering? Or to provoke Ukrainian retaliation to reduce Russian surrenders? Or just evil?
The war on terror continues: "American forces hit multiple ISIS camps across Syria on Oct. 11, in one of the larger military operations against the group in recent months, U.S. Central Command announced today."
Cyber war: "The U.S. has an edge in the number of commercial security firms and freelance experts it can enlist for the war effort. Likewise, China openly encourages its hackers to go out and practice on foreigners, especially the Japanese and the United States."
Mystery drones are flying unimpeded over American bases here at home. Our homeland is no longer a sanctuary. And don't believe our fleet can't be Pearl Harbored.
Egypt and Sudan, who have the most interest in the Nile GERD dam, did not sign: "A regional partnership of 10 countries says an agreement on the equitable use of water resources from the Nile River basin has come into force despite the notable opposition of Egypt." Does that deter Egypt or make it belligerent?
Uh oh? "Chinese scientists have successfully mounted what they claim is the world’s first effective attack using a quantum computer on widely used encryption methods, according to a report from the South China Morning Post (SCMP)."
The Navy took a step toward reloading VLS cells at sea: "The successful demonstration marks a critical step in the capability to rearm warships at sea—a top priority outlined by Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro." Good if enough ships survive combat. And if we have enough missiles to reload them.
Progress? "Soldiers of the 25th Infantry Division are testing the Army’s new Infantry Squad Vehicle during a two-week exercise in Hawaii that ends Thursday." I say make a damn choice about whether you are leg infantry or motorized infantry! This path leads to the unit being neither and failing at both.
Ukraine uses inexpensive VAMPIRE anti-aircraft missiles to shoot down drones.
The waning Pax Americana in the Middle East? Just when has here been much peace in the Middle East and when did America guarantee it? Like always, we support the good guys (or least bad guys) and hope we can keep the violence down to a dull roar.
Von Der Leyen leads the EU into the late Soviet stage: "the Commission President has set the stage for an unprecedented supranational 'power grab' that will further centralise authority in Brussels — specifically in the hands of von der Leyen herself." This is bad. Very bad. And I've been issuing warnings a long time.
A rare Army THAAD is going to defend Israel because we don't have enough Navy SM-3s? Oh: "Navy leadership has said that it needs many more SM-3s to counter threats in the Pacific, like China, but it's burning through these weapons in conflicts in the Middle East without sufficient plans to replace them."
Redesigning the infantry brigade from the squad up.
Can the Army minimize the role of soldiers under fire while breaching mine and obstacle barriers? Ukraine was unable to breach extensive Russian barriers, contributing to the failure of their summer 2023 counteroffensive.
America has been in Iceland since World War II. As a NATO member, Iceland "increasingly has partnered with the United States since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, hosting a P-8 squadron on a rotational basis and visits by fighter jets and B-2 stealth bombers."
Russian troops invading Ukraine confiscated civilian vehicles because they have too few: "Russian military police noticed this and many of them realized there was an opportunity to make some money by stopping these vehicles at checkpoints and accusing the Russian soldiers of driving unregistered vehicles."
There is a need for such weapons: "Ukrainian drone developers and manufacturers have developed several attack drones to intercept and destroy Russian surveillance and reconnaissance drones." My Army prophecy comes true.
Not enough money to fire at all targets: "Over the past several years, the US Army’s annual budget has remained relatively flat. If that trend continues, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth warned that the service will need to take a hard look at what weapons program to cut." Maybe focus on Army missions?
Good: "The U.S. Army has started diversifying its supplier base for 155mm artillery shells, moving away from the bottleneck of a single source that has endangered the flow of fresh ammo, according to a top service official." We're progressing but behind schedule on shell production.
China rattled its sabre around Taiwan with 125 warplanes and 34 navy and coast guard ships: "In response, Taiwan’s defense ministry revealed that it had deployed warships, fighter jets, UAVs, and mobile anti-ship missile batteries."
Adding irrelevant data introduces errors into LLM AI: "A new paper from Apple's artificial intelligence scientists has found that engines based on large language models, such as those from Meta and OpenAI, still lack basic reasoning skills." I noted this kind of vulnerability. Tip to Instapundit.
North Korea may have sent troops to Russia to directly fight Ukraine. What's in it for North Korea? Obviously, cash and dead potential rebels.
Advice: "Doing a Gaza in Lebanon isn’t the answer" for Israel. For a certain class of Westerners, defeating an enemy is never the answer to their violence. It is tragic that Hezbollah is unlawfully using Lebanon as a human shield. But Hezbollah kills Israelis behind that shield. So it's not Israel's biggest problem.
Is this true about Israel's planned retaliation for the October missile barrage from Iran? "Oil and nukes are the priority targets — and the ones Biden has bullied Netanhayu into taking off the table." Could Israel hit missiles andproduction facilities, Revolutionary Guard leaders, and naval assets? Where are Israel's subs?
Russian subliminal warfare: "Poland's plans to temporarily suspend the right to asylum are based on the assumption that neighbouring Belarus is seeking to push a large number of migrants towards the country's shared border, deputy Interior Minister Maciej Duszczyk says."
Is a months-long Chinese blockade really a good idea for China when I believe China would like to defeat Taiwan--and carefully define defeat--before America can lead an allied intervention? A blockade guarantees America will get time to gather forces from around the globe and rally allies.
Here we go: "Ukrainian outlets Suspilne and Liga reported on October 15, citing anonymous military intelligence sources, that the Russian 11th Airborne (VDV) Brigade is forming a 3,000-person “battalion” staffed by North Korean citizens (the numerical strength is far beyond a battalion)."
Sh*t got real: "Sweden on Tuesday presented a defense bill that ramps up military spending to 2.4 percent of GDP next year and even higher beyond that — a response to the threat from Russia[.]"
To be fair, the Russians are bastards: "The U.S. Army’s top general in Europe warned this week that Russian operatives making mischief in NATO territory have ratcheted up the risk of military escalation with Moscow."
Sh*t got real: "The Netherlands plans to buy 46 Leopard 2A8 tanks for more than €1 billion (US$1.1 billion), rebuilding a heavy armor capacity just ten years after selling its last tanks to Finland, as it seeks to present a more credible military deterrent to an aggressive Russia.[.]"
It is insane that we insist Israel be the Hamas logistics service: "The Biden administration has warned Israel that it must increase the amount of humanitarian aid it is allowing into Gaza within the next 30 days or it could risk losing access to U.S. weapons funding." Hamas can end this by surrendering.
Sh*t got real: "The Army National Guard must find new ways to train in a limited number of days each year so that their formations are ready to fight large-scale combat operations when called, Army National Guard Director Lt. Gen. Jonathan Stubbs said [.]"
Corruption flourishes in Russia.
A call to recognize once independent Somaliland. I've long thought they should be rewarded for managing to restore some order to that region rather than insist the flailing formal central government must do that. But no, Palestinians remain Queen of the Victim Prom. Will you defend Somalia's "colonial" borders?
Good: "As Ukraine struggles to hold off a massive Russian invasion force, the country’s defense industry has experienced an unprecedented boom that is starting to be felt on the front lines." But they can't produce all that they need yet.
Making multidomain warfare relevant to small Army combat units in an exercise "to tie together Army National Guard, Marine Reserve, Air Force, Space Force, special operations forces and conventional units in a series of fast-paced fire missions." If this means a Black Box of Effects, I'm on board.
The Army wants a new cannon: "The Self-Propelled Howitzer Modernization (SPH-M) effort, formerly known as the Extended Range Cannon Artillery (ERCA) program, aims to enhance the range, rate of fire, and overall lethality of self-propelled howitzers."
This Chinese VTOL will carry 10 people (an infantry squad or cargo): "United Aircraft intends for the drone to fly at up to 340 miles an hour, with a maximum range of 2,400 miles and a cruising altitude of up to 25,000 feet." Tell me again that China needs lots of amphibious warfare ships to invade Taiwan.
The U.S. announced another military aid package for Ukraine, mostly ammunition.
The Army's Typhon missile system recently deployed to the Philippines isn't as mobile as the Army would like. The Army should think about whether it is likely the Air Force will find the time to move its weaponry before building them and assuming the Air Force will come for their missile of dreams, eh?
China won't agree to a "code of conduct" for its forces at sea unless it is understood that China will do whatever it wants to press its subliminal offensive in the South China Sea and East China Sea. After all, codified versions of allowable conduct are already ignored by China.
The belief one can feed a threat enough to make it permanently content is not just a Western thing: "It’s not just the border. India has a deeper problem with China, and it looks like it’s part of the same problem that other countries have with China: the country has become much more aggressive."
China sideswiped a Philippine vessel: "The collision occurred Friday near Thitu Island, part of the Spratly group, during a patrol by two vessels with the Philippines Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources, according to a bureau news release."
Oh? "In the piney woods of Louisiana, one brigade’s new approach to reconnaissance recently illustrated the Army’s plan to undertake more complex and demanding missions with new tech and fewer soldiers." I have issues with that approach.
Sure, this seems fine: "Potential approaches include masking vehicles or hardening them with both active and passive protection tactics." I say use the healing power of "and". And toss in new tactics the way the Army reacted to Sagger missiles such as last-second tank swerving and firing on the ATGM launch point.
A new Army "Strike" company that "links drone operators to mortars, artillery, and loitering munitions, is 'coming straight out of watching what's going on in Ukraine,' [V Corps commander] said." But does that lesson from a static front translate directly into mobile operations that the Army strives to conduct?
When will the Army embrace hybrid or electric vehicles? Well, for EVs, perhaps when recharging doesn't require 10 hours on a civilian grid, when they are lighter for airlifting, when slight damage to the battery doesn't take the vehicle out of action, and when the batteries don' burn with no ability to extinguish them.
When I was in the Army National Guard, getting proficient using a protective suit for nuclear, biological, and chemical warfare environments was a high priority. The Army is returning to those training days of yesteryear.
The Army is pushing forward to replace the Bradley with the XM30 Mechanized Infantry Combat Vehicle. FWIW, here's my old suggestion in Infantry on reducing the impact of catastrophic kills on an IFV with reachback capabilities.
Why did America use B-2 bombers to strike Houthi targets rather than assets nearby? It's not like Houthi air defenses are robust. I'm going to toss this out. At the end of the current fiscal year, did our B-2 force have spare money in its budget to carry out the strike? Did that drive the choice? Sheer speculation.
We may not be able to sustain a war against our enemies, but we have a brand new acronym! "There’s a new threatening acronym challenging the global order: CRINK."
Sh*t got real: "By the time new soldiers get to their first unit, they have faced being hunted by a swarm of drones, according to the head of U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command." It was just called the FTX when I was in Cold War basic training.
DEVGRU trains in Taiwan: "The Naval Special Warfare Development Group (DEVGRU), formerly known as SEAL Team 6, is the Navy's top-tier special operations outfit." I wonder what strategic targets immune to missiles DEVGRU would target? Maybe Taiwanese airfields and ports that the PLA captures?
Kind of like a high-speed FPV drone swarm, no? "The U.S. Army is looking to give its still-in-development anti-armor guided 155mm artillery shells the ability to ‘collaborate’ with each other to help find their targets and otherwise be more effective." See also Air Force efforts in this light.
Taiwan seeks to avoid decapitation via communications disruption: "The Taiwanese military is testing a satellite-connected setup of drone countermeasures as part of a massive effort to bolster the island’s defenses of critical infrastructure and core communications network amid an uptick in Chinese probing."
Borrowing against their future to restore a Soviet empire of the past: "The wartime casualties in Ukraine caused substantial personnel shortages inside Russia. By 2024 the military losses were so great that the non-military organizations and the workforce were suffering considerable shortages of personnel."
Italy has found a way to stop the flood of illegal migrants. But if the rest of the European Union--with its open internal borders--doesn't also stop the flood, won't illegal migrants just enter overland from the rest of the EU?
To be fair, staying out of NATO and surrendering its Soviet-era nukes to rely on paper agreements with Russia didn't work: "Ukraine’s survival can only be ensured by joining NATO or giving Kyiv nuclear weapons, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said."
Keep it simple, stupid! "Upgrades are making the Army’s battle network easier for soldiers to use, but it’s still not exactly what they’re asking for."
Well that's good: "Raytheon, a subsidiary of the US defence industrial prime RTX, has reached full-rate production of the latest Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) iteration, Block IIA." But it isn't the entire universe of the anti-missile fight any more than Patriot missiles are the only answer ashore.
MacArthur said there is no substitute for victory. The Navy thinks it can divert resources from that mission for a number of substitutes for victory, apparently.
This speaks of another group to arrive: "North Korea has sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia, according to South Korea's spy agency." Is this the same report as the 3,000 deployment one? Also, "special forces" probably just means light infantry. I doubt Kim sent his best to die.
They loudly talk the talk: "This year has seen President Vladimir Putin repeatedly brandish the nuclear sword, reminding everyone that Russia has the world’s largest atomic arsenal to try to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine." Can they walk the walk?
Last week I noted a news blackout from Cuba. This week, I note the national power grid went down: "The crisis marks a new low on an island where life has become increasingly unbearable, with residents already suffering from shortages of food, fuel, water and medicine." No worries. It isn't "true" communism, eh?
ISW refers to North Korea committing to 12,000 troops in four brigades. North Korea gets cash and/or missile technology help. And ideally for Kim Jong Un those 12,000 die as glorious heroes, eh? I assume they'll plug into Russian logistics--such as they are--as shock troops. Russia pretends they're Russians.
Sure, this is a warning to America: "After years of misguided energy policies, Europe’s electricity has become so expensive that trade unions have started warning of the threat of deindustrialization." But for Europeans worried America will disengage, being less of an objective to fight for is really dumb.
I'm really getting tired of getting spammed with vote reminders by the government. It just seems intrusive and ... Big Brotherish ... since I don't recall giving permission. And I always vote. In federal elections, anyway. Local elections are a lost cause so I don't bother with just that.
Maybe that strategic and operational fiasco was worth it to find out: "US Army boats, which carried out the temporary Gaza pier mission earlier this year, are poorly maintained and largely unprepared to meet the military’s growing mission in the Pacific, a new government oversight report said this week."
Ouch! That loss to Illinois hurt. It was a winnable game. Two long failed drives that failed to score plus a couple turnovers that led to Illinois scores provide the points to win. All we can do is ruin other teams' hopes. Can we? We have a good defense and good individual players on offense. Is this coaching failure?
War: "Israel’s government said a drone targeted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s house Saturday, with no casualties[.]"
War by other means: "Chinese hackers are now responsible for over a third of the hacking activities worldwide."
America will send leftovers from the war on terror campaigns and make more: "Ukraine is the latest country to adopt aerostat (aerodynamic unpowered blimp) systems that use a 30-76 meter long, helium filled, unmanned blimp equipped with radar and other sensors and equipment.
This hits on a number of features of our recent foreign and defense policy--mostly negative but some positive--that I've addressed. Tip to Instapundit.
Huh: "Documents purported to show classified U.S. intelligence gathering on
Israel's preparations for a potential retaliatory strike on Iran
appeared on social media platforms this week." Why bother leaking it when Iran has been hired by infiltrated the White House?
Well, life can really suck when Hezbollah uses your entire country as a human shield and you cooperate with the terrorists: "Beirut's southern suburbs a place of pitch darkness, piles of rubble[.]" I feel bad for the civilians. But Israel is under no legal or moral obligation to respect human shields.
