Jihadis Still Hate Us

Jihadis hate us. It isn't our fault. We ignore that at our peril.

There are plenty of jihadis out there. See here, for example.

America can't ignore jihadis: 

Neither al Qaeda nor the Islamic State threaten the U.S. homeland directly. Nor can their various affiliates strike the United States. A near-decade-long trend of localizing jihad has continued, ensuring that the Salafi-jihadi terrorism threat remains regional if present at all. ...

Though the pursuit of global jihad has taken a back seat to local efforts, it is not dead. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula—what used to be al Qaeda’s most virulent franchise—remains committed to attacking the West. U.S. intelligence analysts missed the first time the group decided to strike, the so-called underwear bomb attack in December 2009, and could again miss an attack from one of the most innovative groups. Al Shabaab, in Somalia, has recently demonstrated its intent to carry through on attacks in the West. A cell was disrupted a few years ago planning another 9/11-style attack, only stopped because the United States “stumbled” on information about the plot.

Two decades of the war on terror actually achieved a lot. And we need to maintain that win to keep it:

We've come a long way from [the threat evident on September 11, 2001]. What Sunni-majority state supports terrorists who target America? How many states now work with us to fight terrorists--including Iraq, which is amazingly overlooked? What terrorist groups seem poised to strike big at our homeland today? ...

I've long said that our war on terror is a holding action to prevent collateral damage from the Islamic Civil War from hurting Americans at home. In many ways we've done that and paid the price to achieve it.

While there are still military tasks to be done in the fight against jihadis, America and the West need different tools from those that dominated in the decade after 9/11 to finally defeat the Islamo-fascists that wish to kill and define all of Islam as an expression of that will to kill.

But we probably will fail to adapt to what still must be done, dismissing the jihadi threat. Possibly because we are ignorant, as the author notes: 

Meanwhile, the risk the U.S. intelligence community will fail to connect the dots of an unfolding terror attack is rising. The U.S. military retreat from counterterrorism theaters directly affects the quality of the intelligence picture. ... The new “over-the-horizon” counterterrorism posture seems much better suited to targeting known individuals and threats than identifying new ones. 

Indeed:

Waging war on jihadis from a distance is not nearly as effective as supporting a friendly government that wages war on jihadis.

The government keeps telling us that we can fight terrorist jihadis in Afghanistan without being in Afghanistan. They're fooling themselves to tell us that[.]

We'll roll along thinking that problem is gone. In part because we can't see the threats.

And we'll even justify our inattention by claiming our war on terror was a counter-productive fiasco. Some will invert the jihadi hate-fueled murder sprees and America's response to claim our fight against the jihadis caused the hate-fueled murder. And that we are, of course, now focused on the "real" threats to America. That could be China, or Russia, or even--God help us--climate change.

As if we can only deal with one problem at a time.

Until another mass-murder attack here. 

Have a super sparkly day.

UPDATE: Obviously my challenge to name a Sunni-majority state that supports terrorists trying to kill Americans is obsolete since 2021 when we screwed the pooch in Afghanistan.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Sinks Into Winter 2023

Putin sought a short and glorious war that paraded through Ukraine. That would have been great for him. How long and humiliating does the war he got have to get before Russians start to wonder why Putin launched this bloody and destructive war that sends their scarce money and men into a meat grinder?

Strategery:

Russian President Vladimir Putin was so worried about a conflict with the West that he basically wound up creating one by proxy through his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, a former US Army general said. 

Putin is Russia's worst enemy. I kind of feel sorry for the Russian people:

I feel sorry for Russians who must endure a vodka-addled paranoid leadership determined to create a military threat on Russia's western border where none existed. Even as time runs out in Russia's east. ...

Putin sees himself as restoring Russian/Soviet territory and glory. But he doesn't have the power to cash the check he has written. The West should not make concessions to Putin that let him cover that check.

How much more will the Russian people endure before they conclude Putin himself is Russia's problem?

Seriously, what would a Manchurian Candidate sent to sabotage Russia do differently than what Putin is doing to Russia? And how long before the paranoid Russians come to that conclusion and string Putin up by his heels in Red Square? 

Is Putin getting the time he needs to rebuild his partially shattered ground forces and provide that victory? Ukraine says the spring and summer will be decisive. I feel like I'm chasing a wallet on a string. The fall would be decisive. The winter would be decisive. Now spring ... or summer. This is plausible: 

ISW previously assessed that the West has contributed to Ukraine’s inability to take advantage of having pinned Russian forces in Bakhmut by slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems and supplies essential for large-scale counteroffensive operations.

I do wonder if this consensus--bolstered by the high profile discussion of the time needed to get a small number of Western tanks to Ukraine--is a "when near, appear far" thing, with a Ukrainian winter counteroffensive still planned. My view is that existing Ukrainian tanks are adequate if handled well. 

Of course, I also wonder if talk about a Russian renewed offensive in the next couple months is a ploy to get Ukraine to hold off a winter counteroffensive lest they be vulnerable to a mythical Russian spring offensive.

ISW reflects my uncertainty:

The Russians are thus very unlikely to achieve operationally decisive successes in their current and likely upcoming offensive operations, although they are likely to make tactically and possibly even operationally significant gains. Ukraine will very likely find itself in a good position from which to conduct successful counteroffensive operations following the culmination of Russian offensives before or during the spring rainy season—always assuming that the Ukrainians do not preempt or disrupt the Russian offensives with a counter-offensive of their own.

There will be a big campaign. Whether soon or later. Whether initiated by Ukraine or Russia. Russians know they aren't in a special military operation. But Putin keeps promising glorious victory over the Satan-led, NATO-proxy, Nazis in Kiev. 

Will Russians keep showing up to stand in line for their turn inside the meat grinder? So far the Russians have accepted their lot more than I thought they would.

Putin seemingly expects the Russian people to keep marching forward into the machine guns:

Russian officials, Kremlin advisors, and other unspecified knowledgeable figures who spoke on condition of anonymity reportedly told Bloomberg that Putin seeks to conduct a new major offensive and that he believes that Russia’s tolerance to accept causalities [sic] will allow Russia to win the war in the long run despite Russian failures so far.

Surely there are limits? Right?

UPDATE (Monday): ISW says the delays in Ukraine's counteroffensive is due to delays in Western weapons. I find it hard to believe 100 Western tanks are necessary when Ukraine has a lot of its own tanks. But I'll have to think about the charge.

UPDATE (Tuesday): A useful tour of the factors involved in how the war unfolds.

UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukraine may end up retreating from Bakhmut:

The ISW December 27 forecast that the Russian offensive against Bakhmut was culminating was inaccurate. The Wagner Group offensive culminated, as ISW assessed on January 28, but the Russian command has committed sufficient conventional Russian forces to the effort to reinvigorate it, thus forestalling the overall culmination of the offensive on Bakhmut, which continues.

Is this paratrooper commitment the leading edge of a renewed Russian offensive in the Donbas? And does that mean Putin is trying to capture all of Donbas to let him declare victory and demand a ceasefire-in-place to hold his conquests?

UPDATE (Thursday): Russians may not like the war Putin started but those who haven't fled have largely hunkered down, internalized the propaganda hate for the enemy, and kept quiet.

My view is that while we can't expect a mass revolt any time soon, the foundation for a mass acceptance of a coup that ends the war is being built.

UPDATE: I wrote I'd have to think about the Ukrainian tank shortage issue. Ah, even though Ukraine captured and pressed into service hundreds of Russian tanks, Ukraine doesn't have all the spare parts for the tanks that are similar but not identical to Ukraine's. 

On the other hand, the Russians are finding their tank barrels wearing out. So a lot of Russia's tanks are out of action. 

UPDATE: Is Russia's renewed "Big Push" about to go over the top? It has numbers. It has had some training. Its leadership is likely to be thin and weak. My big question is whether it is well equipped. I suspect not. But I fear that Russia has done better than I hope in refurbishing stored equipment and making new equipment.

Still, the last country with 3 times the population than the defender that was convinced the next attack would be the "final offensive" is the country whose ground forces broke and refused to go over the top any more. Of course, nobody wants a 8-year war in Europe.

UPDATE (Friday): Russia is disabling cell phone service in occupied-Donbas, in an apparent effort to deny Ukraine signals intelligence for a pending Russian offensive.

Is Russia really going to be cooperative and launch a premature offensive that fails, weakening its ground forces for a subsequent decisive Ukrainian counter-offensive? That would be nice. It seems like a highly convenient prediction. Fingers crossed. 

But I continue to worry that Russia is just trying to delay a Ukrainian winter counter-offensive until spring mud, buying Russia even more time to rebuild its ground forces.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

Weekend Data Dump

China might be girding for combat with India. Or maybe it's just morale-building for the troops. And would China really choose this time to attack a major country still on friendly terms with its stressed out vassal Russia? Via Instapundit.

I read "Harrison Bergeron" in grade school. I was horrified at the fictional government assault in individual freedoms. It wasn't until the last few years that I realized what I had read was "Harrison Bergeron." Of course, it is only in the last few years that the woke government has openly tried to make that fiction reality with "equity" policies.

The United States is thinking about giving Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Was this what got Germany to get out of the way of other countries sending German-made Leopard II tanks to Ukraine. Regardless of the path, many thanks to Germany for getting there.

Lithuania invests in the Switchblade 600.

The Constellation-class frigate. It's pretty damned big, really. It's closer to a capital ship than a cheap, expendable warship that can be built in large numbers and lost in large numbers without crippling the fleet. It could even be equipped for shooting down ballistic missiles, as I figured. Last year (or was it 2021?) I could not get a Navy PAO to give me a straight answer to my inquiry about whether my conclusions based on the equipment the ship would have made it capable of being equipped for ABM duties. He answered quickly and with references to equipment that all but verified my conclusion. But a simple "yes" would have worked. But I digress.

If China sneezes, South Korea gets sick. Imagine if China gets sick.

Well, yes, under Democrats a special counsel investigating a Republican is organized to get the Republican. A special counsel investigating a Democrat is organized to shield the Democrat. Tip to Instapundit.

Sure, the Democrats don't have the votes to do it. But the fact that they propose gutting the First Amendment should cause decent people to recoil from supporting those garbage people. Tip to Instapundit.

Huh. Trump offered National Guard troops for January 6th protests just in case. But Pelosi and the Democrats rejected the offer. Perhaps Pelosi wanted a Reichstag Fire moment. Tip to Instapundit.

Tar. Feathers. And can we still run people out of town on a rail?

Jordan will buy some F-16s it can't actually afford. In some ways, Jordan is a competent military with a UN seat kept afloat by allies.

Good: "The Army might be on track to meet its bullish recruiting goal this year after last year saw the service struggle to find recruits." I truly hope that the claim that woke military policies have discouraged recruiting is an incorrect accusation. I read stories but have no way to verify the truth accept for my fears.

A former Navy SEAL died fighting in Ukraine. He is "listed in official records as having deserted since March 2019." Is it my imagination or is the wording implying that while he is officially listed that way he is not in fact a deserter, but seconded to Ukraine? It is convenient for relations with Russia for him to be listed that way.

The Navy is delaying LAW acquisition because of questions about needed capabilities. Good. I have problems with the proposal and set forth my own ideas in Proceedings about moving Marines and Navy ground troops around with destroyer-transports--APDs.

Leftists heckle AOC for voting for aid to Ukraine. You can never be left enough for the Left. Via Instapundit.

Massive federal spending with borrowed money that is stolen or hijacked by so many people makes honest citizens feel like suckers for not taking part in the looting of our treasury. But go ahead and wonder why so many people don't trust our government. Spending like this isn't healthy for our democracy.

Examining "deterrence by denial" versus "deterrence by punishment" in the light of Australia's debate on buying the B-21 (its F-111 medium bombers are long gone). I was not aware of the two terms. But in practice I recognize the distinction and often strongly complained about relying on the latter because you can never tell when an enemy will suddenly believe it can or must endure more casualties to achieve its objective. Which was a big point of my proposal in Military Review to drive the PLA into the sea if it gets ashore on Taiwan. Anyway, B-21s make sense just as SSNs through AUKUS make sense to prevent a threat from reaching Australian shores.

It is unfair to say (white) racists vote for Republicans, which makes Republicans racist. It is just as unfair to say that pedophiles and other criminals vote for Democrats, making Democrats pro-criminal. Neither party is responsible for why its voters support them. Of course, the difference is that the media blares the former accusation and is horrified at the latter suggestion. And of course there are multi-hued racists who vote for Democrats and types of criminals who vote Republican, to be fair.

Lavrov says Russia was willing to negotiate with Ukraine in the early months of the war but the West persuaded Ukraine not to. One, I imagine Russia truly was willing to negotiate with the West about Ukraine as opposed to negotiating with Ukraine. Russia doesn't admit Ukraine is a real country. Two, naturally Russia was willing after discovering it had a fight on its hands yet held a lot of Ukrainian territory. "Take and talk" would buy time for Russia to reset further west and gear up for another offensive in a few years.

Just fuck the Russians and their faux victim complex: "NATO and EU members Estonia and Latvia told their Russian ambassadors to leave after Moscow said it was downgrading diplomatic relations with Estonia, accusing it of 'total Russophobia.'" And now for something completely different:

He has gone 4-0 against his accusers? Don't be silly. The process is the punishment. The only way to win is to not (be forced to) play.

Just a reminder that Biden isn't responsible for all inflationary pressure on America. I know he can't fix it all. I just wish he wouldn't make it worse. Via Instapundit.

To be fair, the woke are for divisions and against reconciliation.

Endorsed: "Drastically weakening Russian, and displaying to China that the West and its allies aren’t the pushovers some of its generals have been claiming, is worthwhile. Turning a substantial portion of the planet’s dry-land surface into a bunch of warring failed states is not." That is bad. But there are those on the center-left pushing the dismemberment notion. Ah, the fervor of recent converts.

I read a long article on the mass murder and because there wasn't even speculation on the race of the murderer knew it wasn't a pale MAGA fellow. Our media is informative if you read it right.

I guess it is comforting that China's heavy-handed approach is breeding resentment in many people in the Solomon Islands. But as long as China can buy local leaders, China will maintain a beachhead.

Burkina Faso has ordered French troops that have been helping the country battle jihadis. The country is seemingly drifting toward the Russians, instead. That is unlikely to work out well for Burkina Faso.

Right now I'm not convinced I need an annual Covid-19 shot. I got a booster well over a year ago and got a mild case of Covid less than a year ago. I think I'm done unless I hear something dramatic. I already get a flu shot despite its hit-or-miss nature.

The most recent American arms package for Ukraine, including air defenses, more Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Strykers, and HMMWVs. Plus ammunition and other useful stuff.

U.S. Army units will rotate into Romania.

Germany announced an aid package for Ukraine that apparently "will include 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, seven Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled artillery systems, additional guided missiles for the Iris-T anti-aircraft missile system, and another Iris-T unit." Excellent.

Saying that Patriot missiles aren't suited to stopping massed drones is not the same as saying sending them is an "expensive blunder." Patriots have other uses. I mean, sending Patriots to stop stray dogs from pooping on Ukrainian lawns would also be an expensive blunder.

The reason for high egg prices is obvious. Under Trump, Big Egg wasn't greedy. Under Biden, Big Egg is greedy.

A big joint U.S.-Israeli military exercise to show Iran we're serious and not distracted by other threats. Iran worries about Israel. Does America's participation increase Iranian worries or reassure Iran that America is restraining Israel?

The Biden administration is withholding documents from the House about the American retreat from Afghanistan. Which is odd given the Biden administration boasts about the extraction. They should be proud to share the details. Or not.

Italy and France are sending air defense systems to Ukraine.  

A "debate" over what a tank is hasn't been reignited. Flaming media ignorance has been reignited. No fashion reporter would be allowed to write without knowing their subject. But any fool can report on defense matters. Heck, it's probably a career enhancer. Only semi-fascists know what a tank is!

Iranian protests ticked up recently.

Good grief, how high does return on investment have to be for Somalia to be considered safe for investments?

Houston, we have a problem. Afraid of losing, our military leadership has thrown away a chance for earlier Ukrainian victory. That's changing. But slowly. Our leadership could use a good slap from Patton and a stern lecture from Grant. Unless it's an information operation to lull the Russians.

Thoughts on the CSIS Taiwan war game with advice for decision makers to skip ahead to the recommendations section. My advice is to check the definitions section before making policy.

When Democrats accuse Republicans of something awful, by now it should be an automatic assumption that Democrats are doing what they accuse Republicans of doing.

Say, aren't these pre-war reasons why Ukraine shouldn't join NATO all obsolete now because of Putin's actions?

I've long wanted to bring Russia in from the cold for the common interest of resisting Chinese territorial ambitions. Would a Russian defeat in Ukraine be the whack with the clue bat that promotes a radical change in policy to do tha. Such a flip might be the only way Russia can avoid the worst consequences of invading Ukraine.

Nothing to see. Move along. Darn. I owe a hat tip to someone and now I forget.

Um, no: "Psychologically, the loss of US tanks to Russian weapons would be a negative message about America’s ability to uphold security in Europe. (It certainly would unnerve the Baltic States and Germany.)" That conclusion is silly. Tanks aren't invulnerable. That's the price of conventional warfare. And that's just one of the angles of the author's article basically urging us to "let the Wookie win."

So we don't have any war reserve stockpile at all??!! "The U.S. defense-industrial base is not ready for a battle over Taiwan, as it would run out of key long-range, precision-guided munitions in less than one week, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies." WT Holy F! Oh, wait. The one-week supply is for the still-new LRASM. So the situation isn't good. But don't panic. Work the problem.

Hey! Don't cosmological wall-shame the Milky Way galaxy!  Tip to Instapundit.

If the State Department isn't "focused on" getting a deal, it is only because they'd rather not have anyone pay attention. Because Democrats love mullah-run Iran.

It isn't really satire, is it?

China's new cruiser-sized destroyers lack the latest advanced air defense missile they are suppose to have.

As I suspected, we must have struck a deal with Germany: "The Biden administration is leaning toward sending 'a significant number' of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two U.S. officials said, and an announcement could come as early as this week." I wouldn't be shocked if those thirty tanks went to Poland for Ukrainian crews to train on rather than really being directly sent to Ukraine without the logistics readied for them.

This is good: "Several senior Ukrainian officials, including front-line governors, lost their jobs Tuesday in a corruption scandal plaguing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government as it grapples with the nearly 11-month-old Russian invasion." This is not a one-off, apparently. Being just a smaller version of corrupt Russia won't build capacity to defeat Russia.

Doomsday Clock inflation. I don't think The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has very many actual atomic scientists any more. Non-scientist activists run the publication, I've read. They just reset it when anything frightens them.

Whatever else you might say about Representative George Santos (R--New York), he might be the only politician who doesn't have secret documents in his home. No matter what he says to impress the ladies.

I suspect the cause is millions of our ancestors spinning in their graves over what the woke are doing to America. Tip to Instapundit. 

Turkey continues to block Sweden's NATO membership. Erdogan has set elections for May. Is that the end date for his obstruction of Sweden? Is Finland moving forward without Sweden, knowing that Sweden will follow? I suppose worst case Sweden would like having their land borders purely NATO states.

When you positively, absolutely, have to mine your beaches right now. 

A defense industry proposal to make space for more electrical energy generation and new energy-hungry weapons on Burke-class destroyers while a replacement DDG gets farther in the future. It can be done, apparently. 

A Marine defense of the Mark I Eyeball and the brain behind it.

New nukes is good nukes. 

The Bradley finally gets its Iron Fist APS to work. Full brigade to follow.

Oh? "Egypt's top religious institution on Wednesday called on Muslims world over to boycott Swedish and Dutch products over the desecration of Islam’s holy book by far-right activists in the two European countries." Egypt better hope the world doesn't boycott it because Egyptian far-Islamist terrorists murder infidels. Lord, we dream of those nutballs only burning Bibles. 

China wants economic growth. But are they capable of instituting policies to get it? They key will be whether good policies bolster or undermine the Chinese Communist Party. All else is secondary. But no worries, the CCP has a convenient belief: "In Xi’s vision, however, party control is not a hindrance to innovation. Rather, Xi’s vision of innovation is one in which the state and party play a leading role."

Is Russia reacting to Armenia's worry about Russian protection from Azerbaijan by stoking a coup by pro-Russian actors who will remain loyal to Russia?

Defending F-15EX purchases for North American air defense and working with stealth fighters as missile trucks linked to the stealth fighters' sensors, which lets the stealth fighters remain undetected. I also like having a Plan B if the F-35s are down with software problems.

Sigh. America is creating a Russia "bogeyman"? Russia has been the one issuing serial nuclear threats to NATO and Russia launched its war crimes-laden invasion of Ukraine. Yes, there was no Trump-Russia collusion. And Democrats' sudden conversion is based on politics. But Russia (and the USSR before it) has a long history of interfering in our elections, even if the 2016 effort was small, amateurish, and ineffective. Russians didn't need any help to paint them as the bad guys. I just don't get this type of conservative. Democrats took a wrecking ball to American political norms and social cohesion with their Russiagate hoax. But Russia is also a threat to the West. The former does not nullify the latter. Do not become confused. One can believe both.

The historically unusual Russian-Turkish-Iranian alliance in Syria is breaking down.

I hear that America will send 30-50 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. I suspect to equip a small battalion of about 30 in order to have 20 in Poland for training and replacing losses. It would be easier to haul a damaged or broken down Abrams back to NATO territory for repair while a reserve Abrams is plugged in. Or maybe they are just to open the door for Leopards and aren't intended for combat this year, except as a reserve in western Ukraine.

It's odd that being pro-people is controversial in some corners.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is giving Iran an opening to regain influence inside Syria. 

In the Hotel California, you can leave but you can never check out of its taxation reach. How is that even legal?Although I'm not so naive as to believe that which is stupid and/or immoral can't possibly be legal. When the wealthy refuse to move to California to avoid that trap, it will be a surprise to California authorities. Tip to Instapundit.

When Ukraine kicks off a big counteroffensive, I suspect it will be aimed at Melitopol in the Zaporizhia province south and that a supporting effort will be made across the Dnieper River on the Kherson front when Russia is less able to counter that thrust because it is too busy against the main effort. This is interesting: "Ukrainian Special Forces conducted a raid across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on January 23-24." The raid could have been made with fires. I think this is more likely recon, as one Russian milblogger guessed. Knowing ground conditions would be vital. Or I'm seeing and connecting dots that don't exist or paint any picture at all, of course. That happens.

Are you kidding me?! Just ... Let's go, Brandon. Tip to PJ Media. I'm not as optimistic that our weapons will get the rogues to flip to the West. The named countries have no real foreign threats and any old weapon is good for killing rebellious civilians. Most "armies" in the world are only good at defeating unarmed civilians.

I'm hardly the first to say this (I believe Jonah Goldberg had a good article on it), but conservatives should emulate the left in naming their organizations. The left names them to sound centrist and reasonable. The right names them to appeal to conservatives. The right already has the conservatives. Maybe use less red meat-sounding names to avoid appearing too partisan to listen to. You have to get moderates and even liberals to pay attention to convince them. Hell, I send the groups with the red meat names that somehow got my email straight to my junk folder. I'm not the one who needs convincing.

The Russian ambassador to Germany issued a statement regarding Western tanks for Ukraine: "We’re seeing yet again that Germany, as well as its closest allies, is not interested in a diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine crisis, it is determined to permanently escalate it and to indefinitely pump the Kyiv regime full of new lethal weapons.” It's almost as if the Russians think their army slipped and fell into Ukraine--oops!!--and that the West is uninterested in talking about fixing that unfortunate accident.

The Russians expressed alarm that the Doomsday Clock was set forward." And now for something completely different:

The new F-16 Block 70 had its first flight. Still a damn fine 4th generation fighter in demand around the world.

The tank decision for Ukraine has reopened the nonsense of "offensive" weapons versus "defensive" weapons. No such animals. All types of weapons are useful for offense and defense.

"Rapidly" for a bureaucracy? "The U.S. Army is rapidly moving to expand its domestic production capacity of 155mm artillery shells, according to the Army’s acquisition chief, as Ukraine uses thousands daily fending off Russia."

After breaking the dam for main battle tanks, Ukraine wants fighter planes. I suggest Flying Tigers 2.0. 

Neither America nor Canada have interest in being peacekeepers on Haiti.

Iraqis and Syrians help us kill jihadis every day: "While ISIL no longer controls any territory in these two nations, that area still contains the largest concentration of ISIL members and is thus is a 'target rich' environment for counter-terror operations. This area is still where the senior ISIL officials live (and more frequently die) because of 3,400 American troops and even more from local organizations that are very good at finding, fighting and killing or capturing ISIL members." This is what "victory" means. We don't have that in Afghanistan.

The Russian doomsday sub. It seems like Poseidon is the biggest poo that Russia flings. At least the Russians announced it. A lot. But let's hope it isn't automatic:
As Strategypage writes, the Russian doomsday submarine can do more mundane things that sound more useful. That's new to me. Is the not-yet-completed nuclear Kraken torpedo its defense system to deter attacks on it?

There is more panic about the West "escalating" the war in Ukraine. The West hasn't given Ukraine any types of weapon that Russia hasn't used from the start in its brutal and illegal invasion of Ukraine.

These authors undermine their credibility by extolling Crimea's Russian "little green men" and China's South China Sea island building as the kind of operations to emulate. They were effective for what they were. But hardly templates for war. Also, despite heavy tank casualties, Russia conquered the territory it now holds using armored fighting vehicles with no finesse at all. The authors want more weapons for Ukraine. That's great. But their evidence for their conclusion seems disconnected from reality.

Peru has a lot of governance problems. I won't pretend to understand Peru. But I do know that corruption kills democracy. I'd hope our vast foreign policy establishment has enough to keep enemies from exploiting the unrest. Hell, I hope we understand that obvious government corruption here is dangerous to our democracy. Yet we all just shrug and cynically say that's how it is. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia isn't likely to recruit enough to expand its already understrength military and develop leaders to command them. Nor can Russia afford them. And the military industry is short of people. Is it just a ploy to disguise the death benefits and hide the scale of losses? I'm certainly skeptical.

Because she never has answers to important questions, "Cameroonian journalist Simon Ateba, the White House correspondent for Today News Africa, questioned whether Jean-Pierre was '[a good] fit' for her job." American journalists just want plausible lies to give to their customers. And KJP can't even provide that. Tip to Instapundit.

Exactly! "The Kremlin and its allies are right to be concerned about these new Western commitments, which allow Ukrainian commanders to plan against replacements for tank losses they could expect in counter-offensive operations that might be launched even before the Western tanks begin to arrive." I just don't think the Western tanks are necessary to launch a counteroffensive.

Russia sent another wave of missiles and suicide drones against Ukrainian cities.

Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to make several nuclear warheads. Remember, the Iran nuclear deal was founded on the lies that Iran never had a nuclear weapons program and that it was researching nuclear electricity generation. It's amazing how fast Iran converted their peaceful nuclear program to a weapons program. And yes, I prefer no deal to a horrible deal whose only purpose was to let the West pretend Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program. Also, blaming North Korean nukes on the American invasion of Iraq is nonsense.

Unicornium poised to give hope to Western green-energy enthusiasts.

Watching the bad guys.

Apparently, America is giving Ukraine just 31 Abrams tanks for a Russian-style battalion. Odd. None for training or at least replacements for losses? Either more Abrams will be sent or this is the Convince-the-Germans-to-Provide-Leopards battalion with zero combat duties any time this year.

Buzzfeed to use AI for content instead of the large rooms with monkeys banging away on keyboards. Tip to Instapundit.

Motive and opportunity: "A security assessment by Indian police in the Himalayan region of Ladakh says there could be more clashes between Indian and Chinese troops along their contested frontier there as Beijing ramps up military infrastructure in the region."

I assumed it was a ground operation in Somalia based on the press release wording. It was: "US forces have killed an Islamic State leader, Bilal al-Sudani, and 10 of his operatives in northern Somalia, American officials say. [para] He was killed after US special forces raided a remote mountainous cave complex hoping to capture him."

Russian nationalists critical of the Russian military's stumbles in Ukraine continue to publicly vie for influence.

Turkey's jet UAV had its first test flight. It will be used on Turkey's LHD, replacing the original F-35B that Turkey is no longer allowed to buy. And other efforts to build a domestic arms industry. I'll say that without immediate big threats Turkey has the time to accept inferior domestic weapons until it can build that industry. We'll see.

More on Camp Blaz, recently opened on Guam. It seems like I've been writing about this new Marine base plan since I started this blog. Well, not quite. But how can it take so long?

I don't yet worry about our enlisted and mid-grade officers (tip to Instapundit.): "We will not be intimidated. We will not back down. We've seen war. We don't want war. But if you want war with the United States of America, there's one thing I can promise you, so help me God: Someone else will raise your sons and daughters." But I do worry about our flag officers.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russia’s Northern Fleet’s ballistic missile submarines and strategic bomber force’s capabilities remain intact despite the heavy toll the country’s invasion into Ukraine has had on its naval infantry, army and special forces assigned to the Kola Peninsula, a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found."

American freedom took a major hit during the pandemic. I hope that when the metric is applied to the years since 2020 that we regain what we lost. No matter how much our apparatchiki like their temporary powers. Tip to Instapundit.

There's an awful lot of panty-flinging hype over a mere 100 or so Western tanks going to Ukraine. Take a breath, people. The expectations being generated do no favor to Ukraine.

Russia is trying to destroy an independent Ukraine and is doing the same to Belarus, as part of a pattern of imperial expansion. Absorbing Ukraine is kinetic and obvious--but largely failing so far. Belarus is being taken quietly but more effectively so far.

Sadly, I lost all my firearms in a horrible sledding accident in the Upper Peninsula. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Actual science without hyperventilating. Bravo. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Playing at being little Red Guard wannabes didn't turn out as well as they hoped. 

To be fair, Iran wants Azerbaijan territory: "A gunman stormed the Azerbaijan Embassy in Iran's capital Friday, killing its security chief and wounding two guards in an attack that spiked long-simmering tensions between the two neighboring countries."

We haven't yet resolved the fertilizer shortage. If food shortages take place, hungry people will destabilize a number of countries. Which will highlight the problem without solving it. And likely make it worse.

Don't get your hopes up. Russia purchased old T-34 tanks from Laos for World War II commemorations. I've heard it called war desperation. No. It has been 11 months since Russia invaded. Is it really possible Russia isn't preparing to do better? I worry that I smell a grenade.

Brexit opponents seem to be trying to reverse Brexit by stoking "gloom": "Britain's finance minister on Friday dismissed 'gloom' over its recession-threatened economy and vowed to tap into Brexit opportunities and tackle rampant inflation to boost growth during a cost-of-living crisis." And bad timing with the pandemic, of course.

Well, I looked at the released police body camera and security camera video, and listened to the 911 call. I see a deranged man breaking into a house and an old man trying to cope with a disturbed home invader with a hammer. Paul Pelosi had to be careful because, as the expression goes, when seconds matter the police are minutes away. Hell, when one second mattered the police at the open door were two seconds away as DePape hit Pelosi with the hammer. Many of the early, frankly odd details reported were wrong.

Justice delayed is justice denied: "The global chemical weapons watchdog said Friday that its investigators found 'reasonable grounds to believe' Syria's air force dropped two cylinders containing chlorine gas on the city of Douma in April 2018, killing 43 people." Even before CSI: Syria started its work, there were reasonable grounds. Thank you, experts.

Our friend we haven't yet made! "Rafat Amirov, Polad Omarov and Khalid Mehdiyev were charged with murder-for-hire and money laundering for their role in the thwarted Tehran-backed [murder] plot, the Department of Justice said in a statement." Democrats will forgive Iran.

The AP said using "the" unfairly lumps diverse people into a category, like "the French". The French embassy in America responded. Heh. Magnifique. The French government often annoys me. But they have their moments.

And now for something completely different:

Lukashenko's high-wire act.

Nimitz exercised in the South China Sea, defying Chinese claims of control.

Poland is sending Ukraine 60 more modernized Soviet tanks in addition to 14 Leopard IIs. This is on top of 250 tanks Poland sent earlier in the war.

Palestinian terrorist attacks against Israelis. 

The #MeToo torpedo that Democrats thought they had fired at Republicans continues to circle back to target the left. It was never about justice for women. Tip to Instapundit.

America's Indo-Pacific allies don't trust America's extended nuclear deterrence. In good conscience I can't simply blame this on Biden. As China and North Korea develop weapons that can reach America, our allies wonder rightly if America would trade Seattle or Los Angeles for Seoul or Tokyo. When our allies' enemies couldn't target America, extended deterrence was easy. In the Cold War, Germany had the same worries regarding Soviet nuclear threats. The logical response is to get their own nukes. Britain and France have their own, remember. Japan and South Korea could follow. I noted this problem ten years ago.

Interesting. The Koran burner who has given Erdogan an excuse to stall Sweden's NATO membership was apparently backed by a man who used to work for RT, the Russian propaganda outlet. You have to admit it would be dereliction of duty in Russian intelligence wasn't involved. If Turkey's blockade doesn't stop after May elections, I wonder if NATO will seek to punish Turkey. More broadly, we won't really win the War on Terror as long as Moslem reaction to such incidents is to get violently outraged. What doesn't anger them?

FFS, even Putin is willing to fire generals who fail.

As if our shipyard problems aren't bad enough: "The U.S. Navy will immediately suspend submarine repair work at four dry docks in Washington state, following new concerns about their ability to withstand seismic activity, service leaders told Defense News."

This is really good, addressing the concept of friction in war. 

The quiet war crime: "Head of the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi reiterated on January 27 that Russia is consistently in violation of 'the fundamental principles of child protection' by putting Ukrainian children up for adoption."

Russia and China supplied a lot of advanced weapons and even personnel to help North Vietnam fight America in South Vietnam, just as they helped North Korea earlier. We did not call either a war between America/the West and the Russians or Chinese. Just saying that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not a war between NATO and Russia, as so many in the West--and as Russia itself claims--assert.

Goddamned semi-fascist bastard un-American rat-fucking partisan censors: "Alliance for Securing Democracy’s 'Hamilton 68' dashboard created by former FBI counterintelligence official Clint Watts, which purported to track Russian influence on the platform and became widely cited by the media and Democratic lawmakers to discredit conservatives and silence opposing views." The media and Democrats were willing accomplices. Gosh, why don't I trust the media? And at this point, are any conservative conspiracy theories still just theories?

LOL:

One could say the same thing about the United Nations. Discuss.

And another:

Given that Trump started the underlying problem in Biden's Afghanistan skedaddle debacle by negotiating directly with the Taliban--thus delegitimizing the Afghanistan government--I'm not comfortable with his claim that getting peace in Ukraine would be easy.

CNN+ was apparently the canary in the coal mine.

Russia's hypersonic missile in development: "Avangard is an expensive defense against an imaginary threat." America is no threat to Russia as long as Russia leaves our allies alone. Although I worry that China might have use for a small number of these expensive not-yet-working weapons. When you rely on a small number of super expensive capital ships, they're your vulnerability.

Just keep swimming: "The foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland reiterated in separate interviews published Saturday that the process for the two Nordic nations to join NATO is continuing despite Turkey's president saying Sweden shouldn’t expect his country to approve its membership." Turkey under Erdogan remains NATO's problem child.

Iran denies serious damage: "A loud explosion struck a military industry factory near Iran's central city of Isfahan overnight, in what Tehran said on Sunday was a drone strike by unidentified attackers."  Also, "a massive fire at a motor oil factory" near Tabriz. And the nature of the factory is not given.

Russia used Wagner to buy time for Russia's regular forces to be rebuilt: "The Russian military’s decreasing reliance on Wagner forces around Bakhmut is likely reducing Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s influence." Rather than being a trend, it was a stopgap measure. Which means the worst case scenario for Russia is off the table for now, I think.

Erdogan is a real a-hole. Let's talk whether Moslems are more at risk in the West than non-Moslems are in Islamic countries. Here's hoping that after Erdogan, Turkey will repair relations with its NATO allies.

The Ryukyu Shield

My assumption about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is that China needs to defeat Taiwan but only delay America and its allies. So China would not target America or Japan when China invades Taiwan. Buying time while America decides to intervene could be invaluable. My caveat has been that if China ever assumes America will intervene quickly, then including American and Japanese targets at H-Hour would make sense. Are we getting to that position?

HIMARS with anti-ship missiles (or any anti-ship missile system) on Japan's Yonaguni Island just east of Taiwan would be able to target Chinese invasion ships heading for Taiwan. 

America and Japan holding strong points in those islands would also complicate Chinese efforts to deploy their navy east of Taiwan to interdict Japanese and American help heading to Taiwan. China is practicing in that area:

So yeah:

The biggest contribution Japan can make to a Taiwan contingency is the rock solid protection of Japanese territory, while the U.S. does some of the other things.

Japan is arming up. Assuming that is used for rock solid protection of Japanese territory all the way south to the rocks by Taiwan, that complicates Chinese plans by shielding American and Japanese access to Taiwan. I worry that Japan might recoil from defending its Ryuku outposts. Like their older plans for defending islands closer to Japan, could Japan seek to avoid offending China with a plan to race China to threatened islands? 

Marines might operate in the Ryukyu Islands, too.  This is still a goal. But as I noted at the end of this post, can we supply them so far inside China's missile envelopes?

But while China would have advantages from taking some of those Japanese islands near Taiwan, I think China's ambitions thus far aren't likely to include using its carriers to win control of the seas around Taiwan against American and Japanese intervention, as that Proceedings article assessed:

The PLAN is certainly drawn to the international prestige of operating aircraft carriers. However, the centerpiece of PLAN strategy, especially over the next decade, will likely continue to be the strike capabilities of its surface combatants and submarines.

While no doubt helpful, I don't think China needs to control those waters to successfully invade Taiwan. China already has land-based anti-ship assets (A2/AD capabilities) and  the threat of their new fleet to keep America away long enough to achieve local victories.

Yet if China finds they need all their marines to hit Taiwan and the Pescadores Islands (to pierce that shield for much of Taiwan's coast), can any be spared for occupying the Ryukyus? The latest DOD report on Chinese military power credits China with 8 marine brigades. Although I think that includes supporting brigades and not just maneuver brigades. There probably aren't enough to spare from the primary mission, regardless of how useful the mission could be.

Remember, China has to defeat Taiwan. China does not need to defeat America (and now Japan) to successfully invade Taiwan--just delay America and Japan from intervening. To achieve the delay that China needs to defeat Taiwan, China might consider deploying for a battle east of Taiwan to contest those waters--perhaps adding vital time to America's decision to intervene--long enough to defeat Taiwan. 

And if America intervenes quickly? China's carriers, especially their early smaller carriers, would be an easy sacrifice to make for further delaying America:

The Navy might be so mesmerized by the opportunity to relive their glory days of the Pacific theater in World War II that they'll take their eye off the ball.

China would totally sacrifice inferior carriers, most important as stepping stones in construction and training to more capable carriers in the 2030s, if China can gain their most core of core interests in the face of American opposition.

That kind of real-world SINKEX might distract the U. S. Navy long enough from the actual mission of defeating China's invasion of Taiwan. 

Remember too that when we make plans to oppose China that we need to define what defeating Taiwan means for China. Just getting the PLA ashore and getting a ceasefire is enough!

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Building the Networked Phalanx

Are fires and and surveillance now dominant over maneuver on the battlefield with precision and persistence added, respectively, to the equation?

Interesting issue:

[Although the "U.S. Army continued to view maneuver forces as the decisive element on the battlefield"], with the evolution of long-range and rapid-firing artillery, rockets, missiles, and other joint fires assets, maneuver’s traditional primacy amongst Western armies may be diminishing, if not ending altogether.

When done correctly against enemies unprepared to deal with the combination, it is devastating.

I wrote about that question some years ago:

The old infantry phalanxes were rectangles of men who fought shoulder-to-shoulder in an interlocking formation that pressed into an enemy phalanx to slash at the forward edges and ultimately shove the enemy formation back until it lost cohesion and could not stand it's ground in the "push of shields."

Could we eventually see a joint force in a theater function as a giant phalanx of swarming robots with persistent surveillance and long range firepower called in to support the battle in mortal combat with an enemy theater-wide phalanx?

Lanchester's Square attrition models might rule the battles, with the winner being the last one with functioning robots surviving on the battlefield.

If so, our strategy of using quality to overcome quantity will no longer work if our enemies have qualitatively equivalent robot swarms directed with an equivalent command and control system with an equivalent surveillance network.

Will we then have wars of attrition based on robots rather than men locked in combat?

In this entry to an Army science fiction contest, I speculated about advancing on such a battlefield. When the high-speed battle of attrition finds a weak point and collapses the enemy phalanx, an advance will be possible until the enemy can rebuild the phalanx further back. And then the attacker has to shift its own phalanx forward quickly to avoid advancing into a meat grinder it can't fight.

Of course, the figurative push of shields will rely on a massive logistics effort to keep the firepower going to slowly and then decisively overwhelm the enemy phalanx pushing back. We already have problems with simpler lostistics.

On such a battlefield, how long does the stalemate of multi-domain phalanxes last? How does the winning phalanx exploit breaking the enemy phalanx? How does a retreating phalanx reset itself?

And how big do the phalanxes get? Are they brigade-sized? Divisions? Corps? Armies? Entire theaters of war? At what size is AI required? At what size does the phalanx move beyond human control once unleashed?

What is the limit of industry and logistics to support larger and larger phalanxes? Any break in the supplies of surveillance, weapons, ammunition, and men from production and logistics will cripple a phalanx. It cannot lose cohesion and survive. Does bombarding enemy production and logistics systems deep behind the lines become a war objective as it was in World War II? 

And I wonder how aircraft fit in? Aircraft must sortie to fight. So they may have problems consitently contributing to the phalanx. Do aircraft represent a reserve of firepower to prevent a break in your own phalanx or to be the straw that breaks the camel's back in the enemy phalanx? Are aircraft the cavalry of the phalanx battlefield to pursue an enemy phalanx that has broken? Do they cover a retreating and reforming friendly phalanx? Or are they obsolete and get replaced my ground-based precision missiles, ammunition, and energy weapons?

But perhaps those problems get resolved. Maybe ammunition shrinks in size as precision and hyper speeds lower that logistics burden. Maybe energy weapons shift the problem from moving physical ammunition to rapidly building local energy requirements. Movable if not mobile nuclear reactors? Will space-based solar power be key? If so, can a space phalanx be controlled from Earth with the time lags?

Does that make for separate home defense phalanxes and strategic attack phalanxes separate from the combat phalanxes? 

Or do the phalanxes become planetary in scale? Is this the logical end point of combined arms, AirLand Battle, joint "purple" warfare, and now multi-domain operations?

Heck, maybe cyberwar or the something else--whether an invention or a change in how militaries operate--will make building phalanxes impossible.

And how does this apply to seapower? Already cooperative engagement links ships together for defensive fire. And networking allows for the massing of firepower from separated firing assets. Will any surface ship over a certain size be a waste of resources?

But I digress.

It is certainly fascinating to think about. I really need to get back to an article I've failed to get published on this subject.

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

Chest Beating and Flinging Nuclear Poo

Russia is issuing a lot of nuclear threats during this war. And that tendency predates the war. But who is hearing the threats? NATO? Or Russians?

Taking on the lead role as the loudest psychopath in Moscow, Medvedev warned that if Russia's invasion of Ukraine is defeated on the battlefield, Russia might start the chain reaction that leads to a general nuclear war. 

Ardent ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday warned NATO allies that a defeat for Russia in Ukraine could provoke a nuclear war.

"The loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the beginning of a nuclear war," he said in a Telegram post as Western officials convene for another meeting with the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

"Nuclear powers have [never] lost major conflicts on which their fate depends," the Kremlin official added.

One of the parliamentary geniuses, the leader of the lower house of their parliament, added his two cents:

If Washington and NATO countries supply Ukraine with weapons that it will use to carry out attacks on peaceful cities and attempt to capture our territories, which it threatens, we will retaliate with more powerful weapons…

Given the technological superiority of Russian weapons, foreign politicians who make such decisions need to understand that this could end in a global tragedy that would destroy their countries.

They have to destroy Russia in order to save it? 

Boy, that special military operation escalated to nuclear war threats quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast. 

Effing chimps with effing nukes.

Russia's fate internationally was perfectly fine--well, perfectly fine with the West, anyway--before Putin decided to start rebuilding the Soviet empire over the objections of former Soviet subjects in Europe. 

Putin has risked Russia's fate with this insane war that he purports is a necessary fight against Nazis, NATO, and Satan. Russia's worst pre-war problems were internal. The internal problems could get orders of magnitude worse.

Also, the Russians have a history of this sort of nuclear bluff. And perhaps--notwithstanding boasts of technological superiority--have incentive to be loud. 

Are Russia's people and elites content to sit in the back of the boat as Putin and his psychotic hand puppet take them on a Viking funeral ride? 

What are the Russian rulers thinking by using such Apocalyptic rhetoric?

This rhetoric should leave ordinary Russians perplexed about the future. It hints that defeat is on the cards, warns that it might be necessary to blow up the world, while promising a never-ending struggle with Nato, an alliance of states self-evidently far stronger in the aggregate, which, if it really did want to destroy Russia, would have the capacity to do so.

Putin thinks he's scaring the West into backing off from helping Ukraine fight Russia's invasion. But is Putin really scaring his own people into putting a bullet in the back of his head? And pushing the parliamentary leader out a window, to be safe?

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.