Battlestar Crimea Gets Frakked Up

Russia finds it can't defend its assets in Crimea. This has to really crank Putin's shaft considering he viewed Crimea as a vital power projection asset.

If it wasn't part of a cruel war of conquest that is bleeding Ukraine (even as Russia bleeds more), this would be kind of funny:

Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and has used its Sevastopol Naval Base as the primary headquarters for the Black Sea Fleet.

But Dmitry Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in a Facebook post earlier this week that Russia had pulled its last Black Sea Fleet warship out of Crimea. ...

Ukraine has heavily targeted Russia's Black Sea Fleet, using aerial drones, sea drones, and anti-ship missiles.

With a lunge for Odessa as part of its invasion, Putin clearly hoped to be the master of the Black Sea by conquering Ukraine.

That Crimea isn't usable to gain complete control of the Black Sea is 180 degrees opposite of what Putin thought he conquered and annexed in 2014--what I called Battlestar Crimea:

Here we go:

Based on recent site observations by Reuters, accounts from locals, media reports and official Russian data, Moscow has reanimated multiple Soviet-built facilities in [Russian-occupied Crimea], built new bases and stationed soldiers there.

Crimea as a base area makes sense to project power farther afield than the Black Sea:

Russian newspaper Izvestiya quoted a military source in May as saying Moscow will restore the Dnepr station so it can "detect launches of ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles from the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea area."

I've noted that Russian intervention in Syria might not have been justified without Russia's conquest of Crimea. Crimea makes the most sense as a Russian base to project power into the eastern Mediterranean Sea to extend Russia's defensive perimeter to that region. And Syria is the most likely place for Russia to base forces near that area (unless Russia completely flips Turkey or Greece).

Oh the glories of power projection that Putin anticipated! Syria was just the start in his mind, no doubt. 

But if Russia wins the Winter War of 2022, Putin's original vision will be restored. 

Let's defeat Russia now before it gets more difficult to do so.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Attacked Helicopters?

Is another staple of warfare headed to being prey rather than predator?

Rather than flying over battlefields, attack helicopters should support the front from farther back, per lessons from Ukraine. 

The armed helicopter, [CSIS senior advisor Mark] Cancian warns, could be an inflection point. “It might be that new weapons and tactics will reestablish their value on the battlefield ... but at some point, unmanned systems would do just as well.” That could mean a range of unmanned systems, even an attack helicopter close in size to the Apache, but without the life-support systems required for a human crew. 

I've long wondered if a role can be salvaged:

Yes, that 2003 strike was a failure of tactical execution. But even if modern conditions don't preclude a good strike, I wonder if they are worth the effort given alternatives. The Army is adapting to Air Force lack of interest in close air support that will lose hard-learned capabilities. The Army would like its own long-range fires. 

I mean, maybe the Army wouldn't invest in attack helicopters if it wasn't the only aerial weapon it is allowed to build.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Reimagines Russia

Ending the Winter War of 2022 only takes reimagining Russia? More like reimagining reality.

There is so much wrong with this that it is almost depressing to address:

The depiction of Russia as an inescapable enemy is a dangerous narrative that will only undermine the long-term interests of the United States and the West by fostering permanent strategic ties between Russia and China. Notwithstanding the challenges posed by the Ukraine War, Washington must sooner or later develop a formula to exercise the kind of three-cornered diplomacy between Moscow, Beijing, and Washington developed by President Richard Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger that helped win the Cold War and bring stability between these three powers. At the same time, Washington diplomats will have to help find a solution to the Ukraine war that somehow will be acceptable to all protagonists.

But I must.

Russia chose to make a disarming NATO its enemy. And look what it led to. This is on Russia and not NATO's fault.

While we would obviously like to split Russia from China as I've long advocated, no Russia flip will be secure and sincere if it is achieved by feeding bits of Ukraine to Russia as the price:

Does the West need to provide Russia with a generous "off ramp" to end its war on Ukraine? No. engineering a ceasefire that "saves" Ukraine by giving Russia some of Ukraine will eventually be described as a Western betrayal that denied Russia's glorious military all of Ukraine.

The real basis for a flip as Nixon did is having a common enemy. If the Russians would get their head out of their Putin, they'd see that China is the real threat while NATO is the pretend threat that Russia has growled at to hide their appeasement of the real threat.

So don't make the tremendous mistake of thinking China-Russian "friendship" is permanent. China may think taking on a weakened Russia is far wiser than taking on America and its allies.

Finally, since when is it our job to find a way to make the brutal aggressor--Russia--accept a peace deal. Reagan didn't try to reward the Soviet Union to get them to accept losing Afghanistan or Eastern Europe. He knew the only acceptable outcome is that we win and they lose.

And lose the Soviets did, not long after Reagan left office. They marched out of Afghanistan and they packed their bags and left their Eastern European Empire--and more--losing the USSR itself!

That author cites revolutionary France as an example of a country turned into an ally:

Prince Klemens von Metternich ended the Napoleonic Wars, which cost millions of lives over twelve years, by allowing a defeated France to join the victorious allies, Austria, Prussia, Russia, and Great Britain, in 1815 as a member of the Concert of Europe. 

Sure. That's a fine objective. One day. We should want to split Russia from China. But have no doubt that Russia needs America's friendship far more than America needs Russia's friendship.

Before we try to achieve that, first there's the matter of Putin's final defeat at his Waterloo and a final prison on his St. Helena.

Make Russian diplomats struggle to find a solution to their invasion of Ukraine that is somehow acceptable to Ukraine and NATO. That is actual smart diplomacy and not retreat disguised as statesmanship.

UPDATE (Monday): For all the talk of Russia overwhelming Ukraine with its size, Russia has failed to break Ukraine despite half a year of no American military aid. Yes, Russia has advanced:

But with around two months of the summer left, it has failed to achieve its most ambitious goals: there has been neither a grand Russian breakthrough nor a general collapse of the  Ukrainian front line.

And the price Russia has paid for its gains has been very high. 

UPDATE: The trickle begins:

The first F-16s have arrived in Ukraine, finally giving Kyiv the venerable fourth-generation multirole fighter it has sought for over a year, according to multiple reports. 

This has taken way too long. We had an alternative--that I raised 21 months ago--in my opinion.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

I plan to start regular posting on The Dignified Rant: Evolved (Substack) beginning August 1, 2024. I will continue Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022 posts as well as shorter posts on the other days here on TDR.

RUSI reports on reasons for the failed 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. Good stuff. Although the lesson on dispersed attacks was not obvious then. They might have been diversions and not dilution of the main effort. Many lessons can be summarized as giving Russia time--the most valuable commodity--to prepare.

It's nice that Apophis will provide us with a really good opportunity to study an asteroid coming really close to Earth. I worry that some end times nutballs with access to spacecraft might nudge such an object toward Earth. I'm not paranoid. I'm imaginative. Tip to Instapundit.

You know who isn't carrying an Olympics torch to Paris this year? Any of the more than a thousand Israelis raped, mutilated, murdered, and kidnapped by Hamas on October 7, 2023. 

Even destroying Hamas won't be enough to protect Israelis: "Israeli athletes will receive 24-hour protection during the Paris Olympics, France's interior minister said, after a far-left lawmaker said Israel's delegation was not welcome and called for protests against their participation."

This year Sweden and Finland joined the State Partnership Program: "The National Guard is eyeing expansion of its program to train and strengthen relationships with allied countries, an initiative that Pentagon planners hail as a key foreign policy tool."

The weapons we don't have yet always sound amazing: "The next generation of fighter aircraft could bring greater speed, range and ability to penetrate deep into enemy airspace — and it might even feature a revolutionary new type of engine, experts and retired U.S. Air Force officer say." And a seat warmer.

Alignment: "India has made a rapid switch from importing many of its weapons from Russia to obtaining them from Western manufacturers. This included several joint-production agreements where American and French firms negotiated agreements with India to produce Western defense equipmen[.]"

Escape: "There are still more Chinese leaving than foreigners entering as permanent residents." While Chinese intelligence agencies would be fools not to slip some agents into the flow of Chinese illegally entering America, I suspect the overwhelming majority are fleeing China. Corruption remains rampant.

Can missile production keep up? "A new mechanism capable of reloading the U.S. Navy’s vertical launching system (VLS) cells while underway at sea completed its first ground-based test at Naval Surface Warfare Center Port Hueneme Division last week." If we can't get more ships we need full magazines.

Urging more trade with Central Asia as Russia and China dominate. We can't be everywhere. And I hate to get between Russia and China when friction may divide them. But if it helps us flip Russia to oppose China, sure.

Maduro may rig the vote to stop a landslide loss: "After more than two decades of runaway corruption, gross economic mismanagement and widespread human rights abuses, even many of the poorest Venezuelans, traditionally the 'Chavista' regime’s strongest supporters, have turned against it."

Their national interest: "While the West may view India’s engagement with Russia with skepticism, it is clear that New Delhi values its historical ties with Moscow. For Modi, strengthening this relationship is not just about trade; it’s about securing India’s strategic interests[.]" We're pals. I hope India flips Russia.

Strategic tunnel vision is frightening: "The gulf’s value to U.S. strategy certainly is not worth additional defense obligations to the region." One, our trading partners need the oil; two, market flexibility won't fix the loss of oil from there; three, green energy? Really? And four, our military there can cut off China's oil.

Sure: "Russia might arm Yemen’s Houthi rebels with advanced anti-ship missiles in response to Ukraine’s use of American weapons on its territory, U.S. intelligence agencies are warning[.]" Russia effed with us long before Ukraine. So it's no "response". It's recognition we aren't trying to defeat the Houthi.

As Russia wages so-called "hybrid warfare" against the West, the West's best response is to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

Russia had to ground some of its military transport aircraft. Why? "A criminal investigation is now underway after it was found that a factory in Moscow had bought and installed poor-quality wheel bearings instead of those specified by the Ministry of Defence[.]"

I don't care what they say to avoid angering China now. America won't be alone: "Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada are likely to provide no military forces to counter China [if it attacks Taiwan]." The UK needs to watch Russia. Canada has little to offer now. But Japan and Australia will fight at America's side.

From the Heart of Darkness: "The incident reflects a worrying trend of escalating violence in regions of the DRC – regions that were previously considered relatively stable compared to the conflict-ridden East."

That's not what I expect from a major non-NATO ally: "The recent wave of the deaths of dozens of people in Kenya, as police cracked down on protests countrywide, began with the shooting of 30-year-old Rex Masai." I mean, it hasn't even been a month ...

Trying to win is radical: "It’s time to cut supply lines to the Houthis by imitating the Reagan administration, which sank roughly half of Iran’s navy in 1988, ending Iran’s assaults on oil tankers and convincing it to end the war with Iraq." But the naval loss was the excuse--Iraq beat Iran's ground troops.

A move to make dried plasma usable for large-scale combat operations: "The Department of Defense must prioritize development and fielding of dried plasma for the treatment of severe bleeding on the battlefield." Well that doesn't red line my pucker factor one bit. 

Has Maduro reached the limits of force? "[with Sunday's election threatening] Maduro’s hold on power, the self-proclaimed socialist is working harder than ever to shore up the loyalty of the armed forces — the traditional arbiter of political disputes in Venezuela — and keep top commanders in line."

Aiming high: "Slovakia received on Monday the first two of the 14 new F-16 military jets from the United States whose delivery was pushed back two years due to the coronavirus pandemic and a lack of chips."

Was he sentenced to die of old age? "The death-penalty trial of a prisoner accused of plotting the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole warship has been set to begin in October 2025. If the plan holds, the trial would coincide with the 25th anniversary of the Qaeda attack, which killed 17 U.S. sailors [in Aden, Yemen.]"

This is only a test: "Nine F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 8th Fighter Wing at Kunsan Air Base, roughly 115 miles southwest of Seoul, will be assigned for a yearlong trial to the 36th Fighter Squadron at Osan Air Base, about 30 miles south of the capital, according to an Air Force news release Thursday."

Baby it's cold outside: "Fresh off a NATO Summit featuring two new members hailing from the high north, the Pentagon today released its newest strategic document outlining the need for both the US and its allies to curb Russian and Chinese ambitions in the arctic." The new members are Finland and Sweden.

Well that's nice for Michigan: "Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro announced that a future Expeditionary Fast Transport, EPF 16, will be named USNS Lansing on July 22."

Our government won't admit Iran is our enemy: "The Houthis remain the best armed and most aggressive rebel force in Yemen. That and orders from their Iranian patron are why they have recently been firing their Iranian anti-ship missiles at commercial shipping and American destroyers in the Red Sea." Yeah.

Is Russia's stumble in Ukraine really proof the Soviets were a paper tiger? I don't think so. The multi-national front line in West Germany had weaknesses to be exploited. And ultimately, the Red Army didn't have to advance that far to defeat NATO. And we still don't know who will win this war, eh? 

More on the Red Sea Regatta: "We’ve been playing 'unscheduled range time' with the sub-4th rate, quasi-piratical, non-state actor Houthis in the Red Sea for the last nine months or so." It's Smart Diplomacy®! With missiles! I have concerns, too.

Does Putin really want Trump as president? I doubt it. What Putin wants is divisions within America and uncertainty about America's value as an ally abroad. And who does that? Putin or Americans hysterically creating divisions? Putin hates all of us. Maybe we shouldn't hate us, too.

Using JDAMs with multiple guidance systems, "a U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bomber also took part in the second SINKEX, demonstrating a low-cost, air-delivered method for neutralizing surface vessels using the QUICKSINK." This takes me to my basic point about proliferating anti-ship weapons.

Proposal: "It is time to merge the Guard and Reserve in both the Army and the Air Force." Should this be a dual state and federal force? Would that prevent the federal government from rapidly bolstering active forces with reserves without state resistance? Does the reverse hurt states that need military capabilities?

It's nice to have a break from war with international sports. Oh: "France’s Interior Ministry rejected around 5,000 security accreditation requests for Olympics volunteers and workers, with roughly 1,000 of those cases blocked due to suspicions of meddling or espionage."

That's not good: "Ukraine has apparently received and used so many Patriot missiles that the worldwide supply of missiles available to Ukraine is running low."

Help: "FDR took two key actions to address the growing threats to democracy: creating Lend-Lease and deciding to make the U.S. 'the arsenal of democracy.' These initiatives afforded the U.S. a crucial running start in ramping up production before Washington entered World War II[.]" Will we see Lend Lease 2.0?

Axis of Weasels.

Primary mission be damned: "The Marines plan to equip every squad—from logistics units to reconnaissance teams deep in enemy territory—with a suite of tools to take down drones[.]" That's why I want fighter drones, as I advocated in Army magazine.

Maybe North Korea sent too much ammo to Russia to do more: "It’s not the cross-border barrage South Koreans have been fearing, but a balloon carrying a bag of trash floated over from North Korea and hit the presidential compound, security officials said Wednesday."

While news reports suggest Iran is engineering the ejection of American forces from Iraq, it doesn't seem like it will happen: "The [US and Iraqi] delegations discussed a range of bilateral security issues under the 2008 U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement and in recognition of our comprehensive partnership." 

Netanyahu knows you shouldn't preemptively offer concessions: "Netanyahu vowed to press on with the war until 'total victory,' disappointing hopes by some that the Israeli leader's visit to the United States could bring some breakthrough in negotiations for a cease-fire and hostage-release." 

Small drones: "DIU produces what’s called the Blue UAS Cleared List of platforms and components, including ground-control systems, from which military units can find verified systems and vendors for their specific missions."

Fresh units: "Three Army brigades will deploy to Europe, South Korea and the Middle East in the fall as part of regular troop rotations, the Army announced." An armored, Stryker, and infantry brigade, respectively.

Stopping small drones: "Eight counter-UAS systems — wielding a mix of radars, machineguns, missiles, jammers, and more — were tested against swarms of up to 50 drones of different types attacking simultaneously from different directions and speeds. " Two words: fighter drones.

Not sure what the American pier at Gaza achieved other than optics, but practice is practice: "Still, using the pier in a real-world combat zone likely helped prove its use to the Pentagon[.]" Maybe one day we'll find out how much Hamas stole.

Just going to say that China got to see Russian bombers up close: "[NORAD] Command intercepted two Russian and two Chinese bombers flying near Alaska Wednesday in what a US defense official said was the first time the two countries have been intercepted while operating together." In case that matters.

The alliance of losers. Toss Iran and Syria into that. And then consider that Cuba and Venezuela dream of being worthy of such lofty status. Ah, China. The middle kingdom between Heaven and losers.

Ukraine's thin and fraying air defense shield. It sure seems like somebody could figure out how to correct the fact that Ukraine has almost 10,000 "expired [S300 and short range Buk-M1] missiles and lacks the resources to refurbish them." Luckily Russia has ground attack missile supply problems, too.

How's America's credibility with allies and enemies going?

This time a saboteur was caught before doing damage: "KnowBe4, a US-based security vendor, revealed that it unwittingly hired a North Korean hacker who attempted to load malware into the company's network." Tip to Instapundit. 

It's from artillery shortages rather than a choice: "Drones, which were once peripheral to the war, are a central component for both sides, alongside infantry and artillery as Ukraine struggles to hold back Russian advances." What would they choose if artillery wasn't in short supply?

Hidebound? "It’s early days, but the signs are strong that Taiwan’s new government will insist on much more of a porcupine strategy for national defence than many officers in the country’s hidebound armed forces have been willing to accept." This is suicidal wonder weapon worship. Add--not replace--weapons!

How is the Major Richard Star Act vital to pass when we have the entire VA department with the mission of taking care of veterans--including "combat-injured" veterans? 

Tyranny in Hong Kong, courtesy of the Chinese Communist Party: "It’s not just Lai’s newspaper they didn’t want you to read, it’s Jimmy Lai they don’t want you to hear." Tip to Instapundit.

Friends: "The Philippines and Singapore signed a defense pact Wednesday that will allow their militaries to broaden their engagement, but few details were given about how the agreement could help address their security concerns in a region rife with conflicts."

China is a-hole: South China Sea edition. 

Hamas can deny getting its ass kicked by Israel. But we don't have to go along with it.

Trump may be overly optimistic he can end the Winter War of 2022 in 24 hours, but whatever he intends it isn't throwing Ukraine under the bus. Honestly, American and European commentators wringing their hands about that likely encourage Putin to believe he can outlast the West.

Secretary Austin heads to Asia to provide the Philippines with $500 million in military aid to the Philippines and to set up a Joint Operations Command Center with Japan.

Russia got America to stop Ukraine from carrying out an operation? Hmmm. If true, I'll guess it involves sabotaging Russian oil infrastructure. But that's a guess based on past American opposition to continuing Ukrainian anti-energy strikes; and referring to hitting "Russian targets behind enemy lines".

Strategypage reviews the internal war in Myanmar (Burma).

The 2024 Summer Olympics War begins: "SNCF trains in France at a standstill after 'massive' arson attack: Chaos for 800,000 travellers[.]" Jihadis? Russia? Global warming fanatics? Local leftists or Iran have also been raised as potential actors.

Shadow war: "Germany's BfV domestic intelligence service has described an increase in Russian sabotage activities in the European Union[.]" That's how Russia gets more of this: "EU sends first $1.6 billion from frozen Russia assets to Ukraine[.]"

The space cat is on the roof?

The long history of the region known as Palestine. But never say Hamas has no hope. 

Huh: "Miscalculations in the value of weaponry the United States has sent to Ukraine has again been uncovered, increasing the Pentagon's purse to supply its besieged ally by another $2 billion." I want to aid Ukraine to defeat Russia. And sure, government makes errors. Do all corrections go one way?

I seem to recall liking articles I've read from the author. But no matter how many sci-fi futures of high-tech warfare painted, why does it seem to turn out to be something more like trench warfare in Ukraine?

Iran sends a message: "Four rockets struck Thursday near Ain al-Asad airbase in Iraq, which houses U.S. troops, but there were no reported injuries, and there was no damage to the base[.]" Or maybe jihadis. Hard to say.

I'm not sure what priorities Air Force leadership has these days, but a damning B-1 crash report sure doesn't indicate it includes a focus on flying, fighting, and winning. The days of just precisely bombing enemies helpless to respond are over. Act accordingly, eh? Purge 'em all, let God sort them out.

In the 1990s some called it Africa's World War I: "Last year, the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo turned 30 [but] received almost no global attention. ... Since its inception, the war in Congo has excelled at evading international recognition." But sure, focus on the Palestinians.

I'd forgotten the Hamas proto-invasion attempt in 2018, where I commented: "I hope Israel has mobile barriers to build back up halt lines in case the border is penetrated." But I sure didn't anticipate an invasion designed for mass rape and slaughter of Israelis rather than goading Israel into killing Gazan "civilians".

India reaches out to ASEAN. From Look East, India is trying to move past Act East to Fight East. 

Armenia can recapture lost territory, obsess over lost lands for generations, or move on and make the best Armenia they can with what they have now: "Following a tense spring, it appears that Armenian and Azerbaijani officials are making progress on a peace agreement." Unless Azerbaijan wants more land.

I can't remember if I noted this story about Ukrainians "flying drones into Russia and dropping mines onto key roads inside enemy territory." I wonder if the purpose of the story is to provide a cover for special forces or resistance forces laying mines.

There is danger in this Peking-Manila deal: "The Philippines on Saturday completed unimpeded a resupply trip to its troops at a disputed South China Sea shoal[.]" One, it conceded China has power to limit Filipino actions in its own territory. Two, one limit is no concrete to replace that rusting outpost.

Hmmm: "In Ukraine, the majority of Russian soldiers killed or wounded are the work of armed drones." I read conflicting information. Some say artillery is still the primary killer. I don't know who is right. I don't know what the time frames are for rival assertions. Both could be right depending on when you count.

Bye "post-Cold War" era: "The number of European soldiers available has declined precipitously since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. The war in Ukraine has forced European nations to rethink their military situation." Still, "European armed forces are full of people in uniform who have a civil service mentality."

India sees China as a major threat and is determined to build naval power to be a global power. That's ambitious. But there's a more immediate problem at sea for India. 

The issue of using the term "radical Islamic terrorism" seems to have arisen again. I will repeat that if people try to censor that accurate term because it allegedly offends all Moslems, people will rightly draw the conclusion that all of Islam is a danger rather than the precisely defined radical Islamic terrorists.

The Army's long-range missile push: "The US Army revealed last week that the 1st MDTF (Multi-Domain Task Force) included for the first time the LRHW (Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon) in the bi-annual Exercise Resolute Hunter[.]" This is the the most dramatic of the missiles for five planned MDTFs.

Building the Constellation-class frigate based on a proven European FREMM design was seen as salvation for the troubled Navy shipbuilding record. But "unfortunately, the program has strayed into the kind of trouble that seems to follow the U.S. Navy wherever it goes." The Navy could ef up a wet dream.

At some level I hope all the talk of Ukrainian troubles notwithstanding renewed American and continued European military aid is misdirection to enable a significant Ukrainian counter-attack to give a Russian offensive effort a bloody nose. Not a war-winner. Just proof that Ukraine can seize the initiative locally.

It's so odd that only American support for dissent provokes a "rally around the flag" effect: "The top U.S. intel official is warning that 'actors tied to Iran’s government' are providing funding and stoking anti-Israel protests on U.S. soil in an 'increasingly aggressive' campaign." No outrage can dull love for the mullahs. 

Pacific naval balance: "The U.S. Navy is arguably ceasing to be the most powerful fleet in the Pacific Ocean though American allies like South Korea, Japan and Australia have contributed a growing number of warships and submarines." But China's corruption undermines its fleet. On the other hand ... 

Russia is jamming its prisons with war opponents, ethnic Ukrainians and: "Moslems suspected of being Islamic terrorists, [that] has tuned many usually docile prisoners into violence prone enemies of the state." Ukrainian soldiers are put there to evade responsibilities to treat them as POWs. It's a potential war zone.

Uh oh: "Bangladesh’s youth uprising, with its echoes of the Arab Spring, illustrates how corruption, cronyism, and inequality tend to accompany GDP growth, especially under an increasingly authoritarian regime." That's a distraction for India. 

Hezbollah denies responsibility: "The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and 'youths' and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, northern Israel, on July 27." Will that denial matter? Or did the countdown to the next war start?

At the end of April I vowed to stop commenting on political issues. You have to admit that the news since then has really tested my restraint. But as I reasoned, plenty of people comment on politics. I can stay in my lanes in good conscience.

Dashing Through the Snow, In a Party PLA

China moves north. Their ambitions are astounding.

China has ventured far north:

Multiple Chinese military ships were spotted by the U.S. Coast Guard in the waters off Alaska, officials said in a news release on Wednesday. 

Three vessels were detected about 124 miles north of the Amchitka Pass in the Aleutian Islands, and a fourth ship was spotted about 84 miles north of the state's Amukta Pass. The ships were seen on Saturday and Sunday.

Why, you may ask.

Because in addition to Russia trying to expand its control in the Arctic, China--despite not bordering the Arctic Sea--seeks a piece of the territorial pie by posing as a "near Arctic state."

I sh*t you not.

Years ago I urged Canada to at least defend its far north. 

Canada may finally be acting.This is big, if Canada truly takes the final steps of putting them in service: 

The Canadian government announced today it is “taking the first steps” towards buying 12 conventionally-powered, under-ice capable submarines — a massive acquisition with numerous shipbuilders from the around world already eyeing the program reported to be worth at least $60 billion Canadian dollars.

Those Canadian submarines will be busy if China continues on this path to take the seas tonight. And sing this preying song.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Feeding Putin Won't Make Him America's Friend

The idea that Russia has the right to control adjacent countries is national security suicide. Saying Ukraine must be compelled to make peace with Russia by ceding territory and sovereignty to Russia will not satisfy Russia for long. Russia will go along just as long as it takes to digest its meal and decide who to stalk and kill next.

Churchill famously warned against dealing gently with aggressors:

Each one hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him last. All of them hope that the storm will pass before their turn comes to be devoured. But I fear greatly that the storm will not pass. It will rage and it will roar ever more loudly, ever more widely.

This effort to feed the crocodile just a little bit and hope the storm passes is harmful to America:

While Ukrainians have shown admirable courage resisting Russia’s invasion of their country, NATO’s insistence that Ukraine will one day join the alliance only incentivizes Russia to continue its aggression. Rather than working to bring about a negotiated settlement, NATO’s policy, driven largely by the Biden administration, will ensure the slaughter in Ukraine continues.

What, pray tell, is the negotiation supposed to do other than reward Russia for reintroducing great power war to Europe for the first time since 1945? Who thinks one more agreement will get Russia to agree that Ukraine is sovereign with secure borders after it did so in 1945 (when it insisted Ukraine get a UN seat as an independent state), 1991 (when Russia freed itself from the burdens of empire and accepted Ukraine as free), and 1994 (when Russia guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the Budapest memorandum)?

One more agreement won't work, considering that Russia is speaking a completely different language when it comes to talking about "ending" the war:

Putin's framing of Ukraine's total capitulation as a reasonable precondition for peace negotiations is also part of an attempt to undermine Ukraine's efforts to garner international support for Ukraine's own legitimate negotiating positions, which are based on and backed by international law, by shifting international perceptions of logical negotiating terms in Russia's favor. Continued Russian efforts to claim that Ukraine is refusing "reasonable" demands intend to cast Ukraine as the unreasonable actor, despite the fact that Ukraine's rightful borders have been recognized by international law since 1991.

And this argument by the initial author is really a violation of National Security 101:

If Biden believes it is in the U.S. national interest to send American troops to fight and die for Ukraine in the future, why is it not in the U.S. national interest to do so now while Ukraine is being actively attacked?

The simple answer is because it is not in America’s interest to fight a war against Russia—a country that possesses over 5,000 nuclear weapons— on behalf of Ukraine, either now or in the future.

FFS, reverse those thoughts and maybe our actions will make sense! Because we don't want Russia marching west and because we don't want to fight nuclear-armed Russia directly, we therefore send military aid to Ukraine which is highly motivated to resist Russia so we don't need to send troops to stop Putin!

Look, I think Biden only accidentally got stuck in the position of vigorously defending Ukraine:

I think Biden is accidentally supporting Ukraine. I think Biden was told Ukraine would lose fast. I think the early war shipments of anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons were designed for a post-invasion Ukrainian insurgency. The arms would be a relatively cheap way for Biden to show resolve after needlessly losing Afghanistan. 

But Ukraine and Russia didn't cooperate with that political strategy. Russia effed up and Ukraine fought. Oops. Biden got trapped into backing Ukraine. And I worry he's looking for an exit ramp.

I'm willing to get over being portrayed by Democrats as a horrible human for wanting to resist the USSR back then as the price of getting their support for resisting the Russians today. 

Heck, I'm willing to overlook the odd fact that Democrats seem to own more Ukrainian than American flags. 

So to Democrats, welcome to the party, pal. Don't go wobbly on me this time if Russia drags the war out.

I say these Republicans should take the win on converting Democrats to doing the right thing to defend America! Give Biden credit. And then do better than him. Don't give Democrats the exit ramp they crave and let them cry crocodile tears while blaming Republicans for losing Ukraine.

Because Russia has more territorial ambitions. Putin wants all of the former Soviet Union back. And that includes Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania which are now NATO members. And if you want to go back to imperial times pre-1917, Poland and Finland were once owned by Russia.

And there's Central Asia, too, but that's off the menu for now because Russia has learned to fear China. 

Have no doubt that if Russia takes its former Soviet territory, it will keep going. That's how Russia rolls:

And who believes that Russia thinks that even owning all of Ukraine would provide enough security on their western border when the Red Army sitting in East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary wasn't sufficiently to the west for Russia to believe that their successful defense could rest on something less ambitious than a lunge to the Rhine River?

Face it, if Russia got Ukraine, suddenly having a deferential Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland would be something that Russia would naturally (as any great power would!) expect.

That's the way it works. If Russia gets a buffer that protects their territory, before long that buffer is their territory that itself needs a buffer to protect it.

Lather, rinse, repeat, and pretty soon Russia is worrying about Britain across the English Channel and figuring that Hadrian's Wall would be a nice buffer line.

Hey! It's what a great power has the right to expect! 

If we let Russia win after helping Ukraine inflict massive losses on Russia's military, we won't earn any gratitude from Russia. We will have achieved the worst of both worlds by striking an aggressor--and then letting the aggressor survive our blow and win. The script for what happens next writes itself.

The best way to stop Russia is to make going any direction other than west the safest opportunity for it. Because if we don't, why would Russia stop advancing west?

Take Vienna!

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Russia Bows Deeply Without Limits

Russia is getting used to its newly formalized vassal status under China's command.

Years ago, Russia was pointing China at America at sea. Now Russia is a Chinese naval auxiliary in the western Pacific:

The Chinese defense ministry said in a brief statement forces from both sides recently patrolled the western and northern Pacific Ocean and that the operation had nothing to do with international and regional situations and didn’t target any third party.

And this military activity in China's Inner Mongolia could be a message to Russia as much as it is a threat to Taiwan:

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said Saturday it was monitoring “waves of test-firing” by China’s missile unit in a region more than 1,600 kilometers (1,000 miles) from the self-ruled island and that its air force stepped up its alertness. 

That's what happens when the facade of Russian military power is exposed as hollow. Russia's economy is reliant on non-productive war spending, which means Putin will make Russia grovel again. China knows it has the upper hand and is willing to demonstrate it for all to see. 

The friendship "without limits" between Russia and China is clearly one where there are few limits on what China can demand.

Where will this lead to?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

What's Going On at Second Thomas Shoal?

What's going on at Second Thomas Shoal? Has Filipino resistance finally forced China to back off--for now? Or will China simply re-calibrate its subliminal campaign of pressure? What is America's role? And what will the role of concrete be in this struggle? Steel won't last forever.

Well that sounds pretty robust: 

The United States "will do what is necessary" to see that the Philippines is able to resupply a ship on the Second Thomas Shoal that Manila uses to reinforce its claims to the atoll, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Friday.

I have mentioned that:

So what if instead of using force we support the Philippines with an airlift to the outposts that China is besieging in the South China Sea?

We could airlift Filipino troops, supplies, and building materials to fortify the outposts against Chinese threats via their naval militia that rams and harasses the ships of the Philippines operating in what international law says are Manila's territorial waters.

Would China try to shoot down our helicopters in this Berlin Airlift in the South China Sea and risk war with America?

You recall the ship outpost:

Ultimately the Philippines needs to pour a lot of concrete to replace or reinforce and expand that beached ship serving as a scarecrow outpost. Make it permanent and perhaps China will give up on outlasting the Philippines.

Or perhaps build a new ship designed to be grounded and used as a base. 

And do that before China decides to try out its shiny amphibious warfare ships and marines to assault and take the shoal.

And America sent someone with a little more security heft:

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. C.Q. Brown touched down in the Philippines on Tuesday for the first stop of his second trip to the Indo-Pacific to discuss security cooperation with Washington’s oldest treaty ally in the region.

Hmmm: 

China and the Philippines reached a deal they hope will end confrontations at the most fiercely disputed shoal in the South China Sea, the Philippine government said Sunday.

The deal doesn't include a Chinese demand that no building materials be sent to the outpost. The Philippines wisely rejected that condition.

Is Sullivan's resolve made possible by the knowledge that America won't have to help resupply Second Thomas Shoal? Or is the resolve--reinforced by Brown--intended to make sure China can't quietly resume subliminal warfare after backing off from the escalating short-of-shooting force China's coast guard was carrying out? 

And when does the Philippines start pouring concrete?

UPDATE: Peace for our ti--never mind: 

An interim deal to smooth deliveries to Philippine marines marooned on a ship at a hotly disputed reef in the South China Sea appears to be in doubt after Manila and Beijing gave opposing accounts over what they had agreed to.

Why now resume our normal programming? 

UPDATE: Strategypage describes the normal programming, including the most recent that reach piracy levels:

The most recent ones in May and June involved a large number of Chinese ships that physically blocked Filipino Coast Guard and supply ships from reaching the grounded LST. Several of the Filipino RIBs (Rigid Inflatable) were sunk by Chinese sailors in speedboats who came alongside and used knives to puncher the RIBs hull and cause them to sink. A Filipino sailor lost a thumb when his boat collided with a fast moving Chinese speedboat. China seized materials meant for the LST and used loud sirens and strobe lights to disorient Filipino sailors trying to get their boats close to the LST. Among the seized materials were additional weapons for the LST crew.

Do read it all.

UPDATE: Well this seems relevant to Second Thomas Shoal, among other Philippines territory:

The United States is looking to bolster the capabilities of the Philippines to operate lawfully in its waters, a senior White House official said on Wednesday, ahead of a meeting of defense and foreign ministers of the two countries.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Justice League, Assemble!

China's ability to project power is a new danger in the western Pacific. America's friends have a shared vision of resisting Chinese aggression. And entangling webs of mutual obligation mean that if deterrence fails, a war China initiates against even a small victim will quickly expand.

Japan is looking for friends in a more dangerous world:

In its annual defense white paper released on Friday, Japan’s Ministry of Defense warned that the possibility of a situation similar to Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine occurring in the Indo-Pacific. Japan also again singling out China, North Korea and Russia as threats to Japan and the region.

Potential victims if Chinese aggression in Asia are banding together: 

Japan and the Philippines signed a key defense pact Monday allowing the Japan and the Philippines signed a key defense pact Monday allowing the deployment of Japanese forces for joint drills in the Southeast Asian nation that came under brutal Japanese occupation in World War II but is now building an alliance with Tokyo as both face an increasingly assertive China.

The Reciprocal Access Agreement, which similarly allows Filipino forces to enter Japan for joint combat training, was signed by Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa ...

The defense pact with the Philippines, which includes live-fire drills, is the first to be forged by Japan in Asia. Japan signed similar accords with Australia in 2022 and with Britain in 2023.

These intra-Asia agreements supplement the hub-and-spoke model of America's bilateral ties with numerous states:

Defense chief Austin said we are moving beyond a hub-and-spoke model in Asia to "a set of overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions propelled by a shared vision and a shared sense of mutual obligation." Still hub and spoke. But the spokes to America are now mini-hubs--but not an Asian NATO.

America warned China to ease off in the face of such initiatives:

The United States on Friday renewed its call on China to stop its aggressive actions in the South China Sea, saying a broader web of security alliances has emerged to preserve the rule of law in the disputed waters.

And another growing hub:

In July 2024, the 10th Pacific Islands Leaders Meeting (PALM) will be held in Tokyo. The PALM summits have been bringing together Japan and the Pacific Island countries (PICs) on a triennial basis since 1997. On this occasion, Japan might propose a security cooperation agreement to the countries of the region.

The web of overlapping and complementary defense ties is both a danger and an asset for America. 

The asset is that China can't count on cutting a weak spoke away from the herd. The mini-hubs see reason to fight together regardless of what America does. This should serve to deter China.

This is a danger to America because while we might decide a particular ally's survival isn't that important to us--as we did with Afghanistan in 2021--with multiple allies fighting China, America's room to maneuver is lowered and pushes America to intervene even if we are reluctant for good or bad reasons.

On the bright side, the web makes it more likely that our allies will join the fight to stop China, making it more likely we'd defeat China if Peking rolls the dice.

But we can't rest on the old structure because the threat is much greater than what we've had to cope with when we faced limited Chinese power with less ability to project power very far or very broadly.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets a Shaky Foundation

I've long said it is ridiculous to claim that the West is somehow fighting Russia through Ukraine. Ukraine wants to resist Russia's invasion and the West has a parallel objective of stopping Russia from being a threat to NATO. And the moment Ukrainians tire of fighting Russia, the war will end whether or not Russia has been ejected from Ukraine.

It is quite possible that 2025 is the last year one or both sides will be able to persuade their people and troops to make a supreme effort to attack and defeat their enemy on the battlefield.

The burden is mostly on Ukraine whose territory is occupied to learn lessons (as RUSI addresses) of their failed 2023 counteroffensive. But:

For Ukraine, the lead times involved in regenerating offensive combat power mean that renewed offensive operations are not viable in the foreseeable future. To that end, Ukraine must now reprioritise inflicting as much damage as possible on the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to buy the necessary time.

It's not a majority, but the number of Ukrainians who want a way out of this war is growing:

Almost 44 per cent of Ukrainians now believe it is time for Kyiv to hold official peace negotiations with Russia, a new survey published on the ZN news website has found. The figure is double the 22 per cent who said the same in May 2023.

But more than 80 per cent of those polled refused to back Vladimir Putin’s ceasefire demands, under which Ukraine would cede four partially occupied regions to Moscow.

A sizable minority of Ukrainians apparently think negotiations can get Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory--Crimea excepted, I guess.

Last week I wondered if Russian casualties would finally break Russia's army and public's will to sustain the casualties needed to keep attacking.

But I've never assumed war weariness was a potential problem for Russia only.

We have a free democracy trying to persuade its people to keep fighting and dying for their their own country versus an autocracy that orders its people to die in large numbers--or else--to capture another country. 

While Russia has the advantage in that it holds the ground in question, can Putin afford to stop attacking to hold what he has gained at such a high cost?

Which government has the more effective case and more receptive audience? 

UPDATE (Monday): Russia continues to grind away, with the Avdiivka salient expanding toward an important objective:

Ukraine's top commander said on Monday that Russian forces were staging relentless assaults to try to advance towards the town of Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in the east, and that there was active fighting taking place along the entire front line.

Nearly 29 months since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has stepped up its mobilisation effort to address its manpower shortages and been reinforced by supplies of western artillery shells, but Russian troops have continued to inch forward.

I keep hoping that renewed American aid and new Ukrainian troops are being accumulated for a significant counter-attack. Slowly losing ground to do that would be superior to feeding in new weapons and troops to hold the line. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): Russia has been able to target less capable Ukrainian brigades holding the line to make gains at the Avdiivka salient:

Ukrainian units have been jamming their own drones in the sky as Russia capitalises on poor decision making to advance almost four miles towards a key garrison town.

Yuriy Butusov, a widely respected Ukrainian journalist covering the war, reported that Russian forces were deliberately targeting poorly organised and vulnerable units in a push for the Donetsk region town of Pokrovsk.

Exploiting enemy weaknesses is an advantage of having the initiative. Russia too has weak and vulnerable units on their front. But it doesn't matter because Ukraine can't attack them and exploit the weakness.

UPDATE (Friday): Russia continues to attack:

Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24. Geolocated footage published on July 24 shows that Ukrainian forces stopped a reinforced battalion size Russian mechanized assault near Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) after Russian forces advanced up to the southeastern outskirts of the settlement.

A reinforced battalion isn't much. But for this war its a horde.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

NOTE: I'm now on Substack, with The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

Weekend Data Dump

My latest Substack post on The Dignified Rant: Evolved is here.

I have a new article in Army magazine calling for recruiting European NATO maneuver battalions to flesh out combat brigades that have a backbone of American troops.

I worry a country might believe an enemy inflicted the damage prior to a nuclear first strike: "Scientists discover that interplanetary shocks that strike Earth’s magnetic field head-on cause more powerful ground-level electric currents, threatening pipelines and submarine cables." Tip to Instapundit.

This seems too cruel even for North Korea: "North Korea executed 30 middle schoolers for watching South Korean dramas, according to reports." But I won't say the accusation is ridiculous.

Controversial? "Finnish lawmakers on Friday narrowly approved a controversial bill that will allow border guards to turn away third-country migrants attempting to enter from neighboring Russia and reject their asylum applications because Helsinki says Moscow is orchestrating an influx of migrants to the border."

Trained journalists belatedly report obvious war crimes by Hamas that: "[hides] under residential neighborhoods, storing their weapons in miles of tunnels and in houses, mosques, sofas — even a child’s bedroom — blurring the boundary between civilians and combatants." Via Instapundit. 

"Trump-proofing" NATO aid to Ukraine misses the target: "I think Biden is accidentally supporting Ukraine. I think Biden was told Ukraine would lose fast. ... The [anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons] would be a relatively cheap way for Biden to show resolve after needlessly losing Afghanistan." 

China has a military facility in Cambodia: "With the months-long presence of Chinese warships at Cambodia’s Ream naval base and a major bilateral military exercise there in May, China’s newest overseas military facility appears to be up and running[.]"

I assume most of this equipment will find its way to Ukraine: "One of the largest military bases in the U.S. is conducting a massive housecleaning of redundant and outdated military gear and hardware."

Hmmm: "Direct ties between senior U.S. and Chinese military leaders have been restored following a rough patch last year when a Chinese spy balloon overflew the United States, President Joe Biden told reporters on Thursday." As long as the ties remain at high levels, I won't object.

Why the Army can't get enough recruits: "the military, particularly the army, is undergoing a period of mandatory political indoctrination[.] ... in 2018 70 percent [of healthy men aged 18-35] saw the military as very trustworthy. In late 2023 that had fallen to 46 percent. This is a dangerous decline." You don't say.

Russian territory isn't a sanctuary: "Soldiers on the front lines say the [Western arms] deliveries are beginning to make a difference – especially since they can now use the arsenal to strike across the border." Russia will adapt. Russia's losses from the strikes will go down but its military will be less efficient. 

Matt Taibbi on the normalization of murder. In the long run I'm confident. In the short run, people are hate-filled nuts. Excuse an out-of-my lane entry on the assassination attempt on Trump, but to quote Biden, it is a "big fucking deal." Tip to Instapundit.

The idea that Russia is not a threat because just Europe has a larger GDP than Russia is wrong. Japan had a GDP no more than 1/8 of America's the morning of December 7, 1941. It thought its will to win was greater. Putin clearly feels the same way about outlasting NATO in Ukraine. Even a war we win is bloody.

Iran's election masks trouble: "Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s increasingly tenuous grip on power is evident as he navigates a regime riddled with internal strife, economic challenges and a society that has rejected his regime in its entirety." Fingers crossed. Don't save the mullahs as Obama did.

Russia and Ukraine both use mercenaries. But many of Ukraine's are more ... interesting ... in their potential.

I fear this Army briefing on potential threats to base security was a feature rather than a bug when it "conflated mainstream lobbying groups, partisan organizations and non-violent political activism with terror groups such as the Islamic State and the Ku Klux Klan." Gosh! The Army has a recruiting problem?

Anchors Sailors aweigh away: "The U.S. Navy continues its push for unmanned systems with a new RFI published last month, seeking information on the potential procurement of seven MUSVs within the next two years, marking a shift in U.S. Navy interest in the MUSV platform and [a short time line]."

I'd have more sympathy, but Pakistan supports "tame" jihadis to attack India and backed the Taliban: "A suicide bomber detonated his explosives-laden vehicle and other insurgents opened fire near the outer wall of a military facility in northwestern Pakistan early Monday, killing at least four soldiers. ..."

I'm told that Israel fell into a Hamas-set trap by invading Gaza. Wait. What? "The CIA has assessed that the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is coming under increased pressure from his own military commanders to accept a ceasefire deal and end the war with Israel[.]"

If we aren't going to try to win the Horn of Africa naval war, I guess it's good the Navy is learning from the Houthi about defending against aerial threats. 

Fingers crossed: "India unveiled a prototype Zorawar light tank this month, as defense officials seek nimbler armored fighting vehicles suitable for the mountainous terrain along the border with China, where violence broke out in mid-2020."

Huh: "[The Army] seeks to significantly reduce munition costs and enhance expeditionary utility by developing a 155-mm artillery cannon-based air defense system capable of firing Hypervelocity projectiles (HVP)s, integrated into a wheeled platform[.]"

Sucks to be Russia: "Armenia on Monday launched joint military drills with the United States, a move that reflects its leader’s efforts to forge closer ties with the U.S. and other Western allies as the country’s relations with old ally Russia sour."

INDOPACOM logistics need to expand beyond Northeast Asia: "U.S. troops practiced their ability to operate with Malaysian and Australian forces along the western coastline of Borneo, facing the contested South China Sea."

Air defense: "Norwegian defense firm Kongsberg has regularly developed and sold lots of innovative weapons. The latest is NOMAD, a 29-ton self-propelled tracked air defense system vehicle that complements the older stationery or towed NASAMS system." Is stealth and altitude the only answer?

Russia sent the garrisons to Ukraine: "The departed Northern Fleet ground security force troops have not been replaced. The Northern Fleet had to improvise a security force from naval personnel and some local civilian watchmen." I guess Putin doesn't think NATO is poised to pounce, eh?

Drone defense: "The service is looking for new technologies to help 'every' Marine defend against unmanned aerial systems." Every Marine? That's why I want fighter drones on combat air patrol over our infantry. But whatever. Maybe the Marines don't anticipate close combat these days. 

About time: "The electricity grid operators of the three Baltic countries on Tuesday officially notified Russia and Belarus that they will exit a 2001 agreement that has kept Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania connected to an electricity transmission system controlled by Moscow." Now end your Russian rail gauge.

Hmmm: "China is putting great effort into developing its soldiers’ ability to operate in high-altitude and cold environments, increasing its military capacity relative to India." India is pivoting north. But it may not be enough. Will India be compelled to escalate at sea?

Trump rightly wants Taiwan to pay more for its own defense. And: "Trump also accused Taiwan of sinking the U.S. semiconductor sector, signaling he wants a more transactional approach to shielding the island from China." Done! Seriously, Taiwan needs to prepare like its life depends on it.

Buh bye.

Good: "For the Air Force, Warrant Officers Will Be a Critical Link in Digital War with China[.]" The Air Force restored warrant officers classes after over a half century absence. They focus on skills and not on broader leadership. Now do pilots.

Not just an American issue: "German aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion) in 2025 from around 8 billion euros in 2024[.]" Germany wants Ukraine to rely more on money from proceeds from frozen Russian assets seized by the G7 nations. Which is broadly a means I raised.

Ah, intelligence agencies: "[Here's] the intel community’s quadrennial hysteria about Kremlin online activity aimed at U.S. voters. This activity is so microscopic amid the social-media deluge that the only people who notice it are the CIA and NSA nerds who ferret it out." Beware the micro-aggression.

Rather than defuse incidents I imagine China will use the "hot line" to demand surrender: "A recently signed agreement will open a direct line of communication between the presidential offices of China and the Philippines[.]"

Six more were promised for Kenya: "Two UH-1 Huey military choppers arrived in the African nation earlier this month and are now being assembled by a specialized team of US Air Force technicians in the Embakasi Garrison hangar in Nairobi."

China extends its reach to the Western Hemisphere. 

Interesting: "Cyprus' defense minister said Wednesday that plans are in motion to build a major naval base on the east Mediterranean island nation's southern coast capable of hosting large ships from European Union countries and other nations[.]" And get back to me when Cyprus talks about an air base.

Peak China? "What most concerns Chinese is the state of the economy, which lately has not been performing up to expectations. China is still dealing with a housing bubble debt crisis, rising unemployment and inflation and continued slowing of economic growth." As I expected.

Russia has its fifth Yasen-class SSGN: "This submarine was built at the Sevmash shipyard near the port city of Severodvinsk on the White Sea. This is the only shipyard in Russia building nuclear powered submarines. [Yasen is] the Russian answer to the American Virginia class."

And yet the "ramped up" protection Trump was given was insufficient to prevent an amateur assassination attempt: "The Biden administration obtained intelligence in recent weeks about an Iranian assassination plot against former President Donald Trump[.]" Sounds like grounds to sink Iran's navy. Via Instapundit. 

Sweden arms up to be NATO-worthy: "The commander of the Swedish Air Force, Maj. Gen. Jonas Wikman, has led the flying force since December 2022, overseeing the integration efforts of Sweden into NATO’s deterrence and defense posture since joining the alliance in March." That was my requirement.

The program expands to Sweden: "Under the National Guard’s State Partnership Program, New York and Swedish troops will engage in activities ranging from training exercises and personnel exchanges to disaster response work."

INDOPACOM will get Joint Fires Network next year that rapidly sorts out what weapon shoots each enemy target. This should prevent leaving targets alone while some targets are hit with multiple strikes. I believe Israel has used such a system successfully. Although in a small and less challenging environment.

Italy's carrier is sailing and exercising in China's shadow. In principle I'd prefer Italy to focus on Europe. But Russia's navy isn't going to do more than die quickly there, these days. So what the heck, I guess. For now.

Bad idea jeans: "Europe and the United States can offset that advantage by creating sanctuary space for Ukrainian forces in NATO countries." The answer to Russia's sanctuary is to let Ukraine strike Russian soil with Western weapons--not to taunt Russia by giving Ukraine's military sanctuary in NATO states.

Yawn: "Since the 1990s North Korea has been trying to design and build a working SSB along with a functional SLBM to launch from their SSB. [SOP] in North Korea is that there are usually decades of slow progress followed by several failed tests before there is actually some sort of success." 

Seriously, doesn't the bizarre failure of the Secret Service to protect Trump encourage foreign enemies to have a go at our president? Heads should figuratively roll in DHS and USSS. How is this acceptable even for sick individuals lamenting the good outcome? Do they think their candidate will never win again? 

The war will change but it won't end: "The Israelis realize the external Hamas support will revive Hamas military power if given time. The new Israeli strategy seeks to prevent that from happening in Gaza and other Palestinian territories."

Intended to supply the Second Thomas Shoal outpost? "A Philippine Marine Corps unit focused on securing sea lines of communication – including those in the South China Sea – is now operational in the force’s latest modernization effort to reorient itself from internal to external security operations."

Are we really going to blow this--again--and require Iraq War 3.0? "The Islamic State group carried out more attacks in the first half of 2024 in Iraq and Syria than it did in all of 2023, officials at U.S. Central Command said[.]"  Don't think the war on Islamist terror is over just because we are complacent.

Britain's "hollow" military: "The country’s former chief of the general staff, Patrick Sanders, has repeatedly warned that defense cuts risk leaving the U.K. unprepared for war and lacking the capability to launch operations such as the 2003 invasion of southern Iraq." Britain guessed wrong about the threat.

I can't say whether the Air Force culture needs a "reboot" to actively pursue victory. Perhaps it does, though. But complaining that it was just a "critical enabler" seems to imply supporting ground forces is a diversion. I worry that a reboot to win can easily become a "victory through air power" culture.

Again, Russia's neglect of their border with Finland shows that Russia doesn't really think NATO is a threat. 

One defeat in the loss of the Sahel: "U.S. troops just withdrew from Niger’s Air Base 101—the latest phase in an ongoing complete evacuation of U.S. forces that began following a coup in the African nation one year ago." France should have taken the lead here. Because AFRICOM has limits for acting.

South Korea must grow up and defend itself? WTAF? We used to have a corps on the DMZ and now we have a brigade in reserve. South Korea is arming Europe with its advanced defense industry. South Korea has F-35s. And a new blue water navy to help resist China! FFS, what more should South Korea do??!!

You don't want to be the last to claim your interest in the South China Sea: "Vietnam has filed a claim with the United Nations for an extended continental shelf (ECS) in the South China Sea, a month after regional neighbour the Philippines made a similar move, Vietnam's foreign ministry said on Thursday."

Huh: "Almost two and half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s war machine still runs on energy revenues[.]" Maybe the West should be drilling and fracking fossil fuels and building nuclear plants rather than blindly and prematurely pursuing the unicorn of cheap, reliable green energy.

Hear, hear. Reward good policy! "Europe is finally getting serious about defense, and should receive more, not less, transatlantic investment and engagement, the top U.S. commander in the region said Thursday." Leading from behind is an oxymoron with unintended consequences.

It is true that Taiwan is improving its defenses: "Kuoyu Chiao, the deputy head of the North America department in Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry, told reporters at a press briefing on Thursday that defense spending was at 2.5 percent of gross domestic product[.]" But it isn't enough given the threat.

SOUTHCOM: "The US should embark on a 'Marshall Plan' for Western Hemisphere nations still struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic if it wants to keep Russian, and especially Chinese, influence in check in the region[.]" To be fair, SOUTHCOM has more chance of that than military assets.

Encouraging allies in INDOPACOM: "The [American aid] package includes $1.2 billion for Taipei, $500 million for Manila and around $300 million to spread around other partners, such as Vietnam, parts of South Asia and island nations in the Pacific."

China squeezes desperate Russia for cheap energy: "China is making the most of it. It means a major shift in Russia-China relations with China becoming the dominant partner. The new boss is not the same as the old boss and Russia has to get used to it." That's how a master treats a vassal. Also, "becoming"? 

Huh: "In a major boost to its hypersonic might to challenge U.S. maritime dominance, China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has claimed to equip its Soviet-era nuclear-capable Xi’an H-6K bombers with four modern YJ-21 hypersonic missiles for the first time." Nah. It'll be fine.

Cook 'em: "The US and Japan are planning to collaborate on the development of high-powered microwave weapons to defend against hostile drones."

The issue of "Trump-proofing" aid to Ukraine is fascinating. While I want the next president to help Ukraine win, the media enthusiasm for hamstringing the next elected president with past policies--not treaties--is anti-democracy. The media didn't cheer Obama-proofing Iraq. Or Biden-proofing Afghanistan. 

Ukraine is refurbishing ammunition once destined for disposal: "it had returned a 'significant amount of ammunition of various calibres' which had been 'transferred to enterprises for disposal as surplus'." North Korea didn't refurbish what it sold to Russia. Russia didn't care. 

Optimist that I am, I should probably look at the American effort to get a post-Last Hamas War government and security force an improvement over the once-popular notion that a drive-by shooting of a bad regime was enough to let the locals magically create tranquility without our destabilizing presence.

Some perspective on the FPV drone craze: "Since the war began, artillery has proved so lethal that it has caused more than 80% of casualties on both sides, according to estimates by Ukrainian military commanders." Drones are part of a complete breakfast, as the expression goes.

Oopsy: "In the years between Russia’s 2014 seizure of Crimea and its 2022 invasion, for example, repeated warnings from top NATO commanders and from officials who operated or supervised U.S. munitions plants went largely unheeded." To be fair, we were on a break from reality.

Question: "Can Ursula von der Leyen save Europe? " By "Europe" they mean political Europe. We should sustain geographic Europe by opposing the European Union. As for the question, LOL!!!! That's a "no".

Even if valid, conflating a counteroffensive after October 7, 2023 rape/slaughter invasion is just sick: "The International Court of Justice (ICJ) said Israel should stop settlement activity in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem and end its 'illegal' occupation of those areas and the Gaza Strip as soon as possible."

WTAF: "In Ukraine ... dead Russian soldiers are found alongside their 1890s vintage Mosin-Nagant rifles. Since over 39 million of these rifles were produced between 1891 and 1973, millions of them are still in use and many are being issued to Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine." 

Huh: "[The Navy aircraft carrier] Stennis is undergoing the midlife [refueling and complex overhaul] but has encountered problems that will extend the midlife process 14 months. Rather than taking about four and a half years, it will take five and a half years." I was slightly too pessimistic. As of now.

This shows that Russian troops aren't in the war for the duration: "The Kremlin is reportedly concerned about the long-term social and political implications of Russian veterans returning from the war in Ukraine." Recruiting must replace casualties and discharged troops. Will Putin mobilize those "reserves?"

FFS: "Executive Order 14057 justifies the Department of Defense’s (DOD) Plan to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions as necessary to counteract the existential threat of climate change ... by achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2045." So many substitutes for victory. It's starting to worry me.

Huh: "Based on the currently limited reach of the Navy’s air wings, the carrier’s best use may be as a decoy force." I guess we have the answer to my question. Note that I warned the Navy not to fall for a similar ruse by the Chinese. I can't see sacrificing thousands of American crew as a decoy.

Problem. Solution. I'm outside observing so it is hard to fully judge. But warning alarms are sounding.

Yeah: "For at least the last half-century, technology enthusiasts have been heralding an imminent revolution in warfare wrought by long-range precision weapons and sensors. We are still waiting.  Revolutions in warfare are rare." I have concerns about the direction of the Marine Corps.

Uh oh: "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on July 19 that Iran has reduced its nuclear breakout time to one to two weeks." I worry that Iran will have purchased nukes before it can make them. 

France seems to be anticipating a Jihadi Triathlon of stabbing, bombing, and raping at the Paris Summer Olympics.

China: "in recent years, as the economy began slowing, social discontent began rising. So far this hasn’t burst into open protest. but the eruption of civil unrest during the Covid lockdowns shows just how difficult it can be to maintain social order in a country of over one billion people."

Government Accountability Office report on Army modernization: "the Army had fielded six new priority equipment efforts as of November 2023, with ten more scheduled over the next 2 years[:]"

 

Lukashenko is both a tyrant of Belarus and a vassal of Russia. Can he survive? Hey, maybe he survives by cutting out the middle man Putin and becoming a vassal of China to get Xi's protection. 

Doing: "According to an Israel Defense Forces statement, 'A short while ago, IDF fighter jets struck military targets of the Houthi terrorist regime in the area of the Al Hudaydah Port in Yemen in response to the hundreds of attacks carried out against the State of Israel in recent months.'" What America won't do.

Sign of war or means to deter it? "Several European nations have reintroduced or expanded compulsory military service amid Moscow’s mounting threat, part of a range of policies aimed at boosting defenses that are likely to be scaled up even further."

I assumed the NATO number was both aspirational and heavily reliant on naval and air forces: "NATO is struggling to meet its new goal of having 300,000 personnel ready to be activated within one month and another half a million available within six months[.]"

Libya, where the drive-by NATO shooting of Khadaffi didn't allow locals to sort out their problems peacefully without America's "destabilizing" presence--even thirteen years later. Maybe it's them and not us, eh?