Sunday, January 31, 2021

Weekend Data Dump

There's going to be less domestic political stuff in these data dumps. I never really liked addressing domestic politics and sometimes tried to tone it down. But the dishonesty and hysteria of so much of the anti-Trump Resistance really bugged me. It was a relentless assault on my sense of fairness. Without that insane Democratic reaction I'm reasonably sure I would have quickly grown tired of Trump. I speculated about that at the moment of my joy that Hillary! lost the 2016 election. But Democrats acted so badly for 50 months that my joy never really had a chance to wear off. Anyway, this will mostly be a data dump of my basic blog subjects now. Mostly. Over time. After all, I have no need to defend Trump against insane attacks. So I'm out on that. I didn't discuss Bush 43 or Obama much after they left office. I hope Democratic insanity will fade. Although with a bizarre impeachment I don't count on that. That Democratic hate for Trump may just be a tool to attack his supporters. Seriously Democrats, if your hate-on lasts more than four years, seek immediate psychiatric attention. But certainly media bias will be a target-rich environment that I've traditionally addressed in regard to national security issues. So there's that. Fingers crossed.

The idea that Trump didn't "follow the science" on the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic response has always been ludicrous. And now we find that part of the problem was the "science" the CDC was pumping out.

Training the Iraqi military is in a lull because of the pandemic. I've mentioned that training is an ongoing process of training and oversight. That stopped after American troops left in 2011. The Iraqi military quickly deteriorated  enough to collapse when ISIL stormed western and northwestern Iraq. ISIL isn't at that level now. But it did exploit corruption to carry out its bombing in Baghdad.

I'm so old I remember when "liberal minded" was a synonym for "open minded." Now that assumption is a crime against language.

Is this a sign of rot in the North Korean elites' solidarity?

The Chinese Communist Party is a nest of assholery. China is responsible for letting the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic loose on the world.

An American carrier battle group entered the South China Sea in defiance of Chinese claims to control the region.

Google may withdraw services from Australia over a new law. I think big tech's silencing of a sitting American president and his followers was a wake up call to the world. Who wants to be reliant on Google, Facebook, Amazon, and Twitter when they have the power to silence even the president of the United States? Who will be next, they can reasonably wonder. And over what? Competitors abroad will arise, perhaps subsidized by states as a national security measure. Let's see how many Americans will trust the foreign companies instead of the American companies when that happens.

Seriously, given the persistent wreckage that is modern Somalia, Somalia should have their formal UN status downgraded to "observer" and allow any portions of that defined territory that manages to exercise sovereignty over its territory to apply for UN recognition as a state. Let's get the OAU to work on acceptable conditions for this to try to save as many of the people as we can from the jihadi-tinged chaos that chokes the place. Think of it as a multi-lateral Lexington Rule blessed by the sainted international community.

Amazingly, Democrats moved their Impeachment On a Shelf to the delight of the excited little wokesters--again:

The media is mistrusted. And why not? "How many headlines were aimed at our outrage centers in the last four years that were quietly memory-holed, once they’d outlived their political utility?" And that media inauguration coverage "was an almost perfect mathematical inverse of late-stage Trump reporting, a monument to groveling sycophancy." Yeah. The recitation of Tyrant Porn examples astounded me. Read it all. What amazes me is that Taibbi says the mistrust has been building for a decade. I learned not to trust it in the 1980s when they obviously sided against Reagan. Tip to Instapundit.

If a Republican president kept combat troops in Washington, D.C. months after inauguration--despite no violence on inauguration day as predicted--he'd be called a fascist.

Suddenly it isn't racist to name the country of origin for a virus. Huh. Tip to Insanity Wrap.

That's pretty much how it works. At least for the women I'm attracted to. Although without the weight gain. But perhaps I've shared too much.

Canceling student loan debt is morally indefensible. I sacrificed to put money into my children's college funds so they would not emerge with debt. You're telling me I was a sucker? I should have lived it up and then begged the government for a full ride for the children? And that's on top of the reality that canceling those debts amounts to making blue collar workers pay money to the children of the well off. To Hell with these people.

Come on, man! Let's not focus on how long the stupidity lasted in Seattle. Let's rejoice that it is finally ending!

To be fair, the best way to keep people from fleeing California is to make the rest of America as bad as California. Tip to Instapundit.

Triple-maskers look down on double-maskers. I thought the double-masking was a joke but I guess not. I was planning on just breathing at half my usual rate to avoid virus shaming. I'm not sure I can keep pace with three masks. Not that adding more obstacles to the virus isn't logical. But there is no end to the logic as you approach 100% effectiveness. And why couldn't mask manufacturers add another layer to the single mask? Otherwise small-eared people could sue for disparate impact, right?

Okay, that was funny. Painful. But funny.

Al Qaeda is gaining strength in Afghanistan under the protection of the Taliban. The Taliban are not our peace partner. I never believed Trump's outreach could work. Sure, liberals like to say that "you only make peace with your enemies." I say "only enemies can defeat you."

California's lifted the strict lockdown but won't release the metrics they used to justify the order. That's how you know it has nothing to do with politics. So shame on you for thinking that California no longer needs to hurt the Orange Bad Man or needs to help Newsom.

Concerns about voting integrity are bipartisan, you know. Even if the system only has the appearance of unreliability it fuels anger in whatever side that lost. Close elections make this problem worse. It is worth it to end even the appearance of unreliability.

Even when Hollywood manages not to make a propaganda film the marketing department lends a hand. And the movie critics, too, of course. Tip to Instapundit.

Trying to avoid a Greek-Turkish war.

China should not be a model to emulate. They don't even have a minority report to raise doubts.

God the robot is my copilot.

An American destroyer operating in the Black Sea is being sustained by an American oiler to maximize its NATO training time. [And later I see that a second destroyer joined them.] Time is limited in the body of water under the Montreux Convention. An AWACS and P-8 aircraft participated. Which is good to practice for the Black Sea Turkey Shoot. One more step. Bravo Putin!

American F-16 and F-35 planes will practice austere airfield deployments on a "rough" airfield on Guam normally not used for high performance jets

Well good for the Biden administration: Biden is continuing Trump's expanded diplomatic ties with Taiwan with "Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the US Bi-khim Hsiao’s formal official attendance at Biden’s January 20 inauguration, marking the first time that had happened in four decades."

Welcome comrades, to Primary School No. 127! These people are nuts. With power to do nutty things. Tip to Instapundit. 

The Bradley A4 upgrade is delayed by a battery problem

Our expert class was wrong about fascism coming during the Trump administration, and so much more.

A-holes. They laugh at the fine. Only jail time can punish them.

A failed Memory Hole operation. How many aren't caught? Tip to Instaundit.

In the last several years I've heard Republicans talking about putting Harriet Tubman on the $20 bill. Good for Biden for proposing it. But acting like this decision will trigger Republicans is insultingly stupid. And as I said in that post, while a $20 bill is fine, I'd prefer to have Tubman on a new $200 or $250 bill.

I believe I mentioned that Biden's resignation/removal would take place after 2+ years in office so Harris could run for the presidency two times for nearly 10 years in office if it works out. I checked the 22nd Amendment and yes indeed, a term of office counts toward the two-term limit if you serve more than two years of somebody else's term of office. Serving out the remainder of Biden's term if that is 2 years minus one day (or one minute?) does not count toward presidential term limits.

Impeach FDR for Japanese-American internment camps! If not being a president is no bar to action, why should not being alive stop the outrage machine?

Investing in Afghan women is nice and all that. But if the jihadi Taliban aren't killed and defeated, those women will be exposed and knocked down harder than ever. I will ask again why feminists aren't the most hard-core anti-jihadis in the Western world?

Russia agreed to extend the New START nuclear accord pretty rapidly, eh? I'm sure it benefits America, too. Right? Are we just going to ignore Russian shorter-range nukes without the threat of building more longer-range missiles? The only positive spin is that we both know that Russia's strategic arsenal is a Potemkin Nuclear Deterrent. So the treaty doesn't even matter. But I have no idea if my speculation is close to accurate. I just know I would not be shocked if it is true.

The switch from Trump to Biden has opened up whole new worlds of positive adjectives for news stories: "challenged," "pressed," "raised concerns," and "reaffirmed." Nothing new actually happened that is different than what would have happened had Trump spoken the same words to Putin. But the spin is lovely now.

A couple weeks ago I noted that Israel was revising strike plans against Iran's nuclear weapons industry. I figured it was in case Israel had to strike without American cooperation during the next four years. That seems to be the case: "[LTG] Kohavi said that given the threat posed by Iran, Israel's military would be prepared to attack on its own if needed." But Israel would likely have support from Gulf Arab states just as worried as Israel about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran, of course, is pressing Biden for a quick deal. Never fall for "limited time only" deals, which are only meant to coerce quick acceptance of a bad deal. At least we don't have Spongespine Spandexpants to write up another horrible nuclear deal.

Let's hope Republicans use the courts like this as much as Democrats did the last four years.

Equality is good. Everyone should have the same rights and opportunities. "Equity" is not the same. It is in fact enforced equality of condition. Reject that assault on freedom and prosperity.

Re-writing history to support current political attacks. I don't know if Cotton intended to over-state his military achievements. There is a general failure to appreciate that going to Ranger school doesn't make you a Ranger. Perhaps it was too confusing to say he had a Ranger tab. Given his record serving in two war theaters it would have been odd to claim to be a Ranger to puff up his record. But the media action to cover their trail is clearly repulsive.

Nigeria is creaking under the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic-caused global recession. Corruption will retard recovery. Oh, and Biafra separatism is rising again.

Japan's defense spending continues to rise, supporting an effective navy and air force. South Korea has a large army with a growing navy and respectable air force. China and North Korea display their frowny faces in response.

The Navy is determined to keep the Lockheed LCS in service despite problems. What choice does the Navy have if it wants numbers?

Has the latest version of the Abrams tank grown too heavy for "current recovery vehicles, tactical bridges or heavy equipment transporters" or hasn't it? There is a difference of opinion.

Democrats said that the end of the Trump first term would witness thousands of American troops blanketing the streets of Washington, D.C. in a fascistic display of power--and they were right! The troops are extras for the Tyrant Porn they can't stop producing and watching.

Blast from the past! I never went away, of course. 

France wants more American "realism" when it comes to Iran's pawn Hezbollah in Lebanon. Why does French "realism" so often look like "collaboration?"

On the other hand, I mentioned recently that it seemed like Mali was heating up after two or three stories of troop deaths at the hands of jihadis. France seems to have organized a response that killed 100 and captured 20 jihadis.

China is applying more pressure on the Indian border.

The Biden administration has restored the Palestinians to their title of Queen of the Victim Prom, reversing the Trump decision to strip them of the crown; and defying even Arab states moving on from that position. That change in government policy was telegraphed by opinion polling. At least Biden can't undo the realization that Middle East peace does not require solving the Palestinian problem first, as conventional wisdom long held. But corrupt Palestinian politicians will welcome renewed opportunities for graft. All they have to do is pretend to want peace in English while reassuring their own people in Arabic that of course "death to all the Jews" still stands. This is what Israel must deal with.

This is a good court ruling for voting integrity if applied to other states. Note that the law was blocked during the presidential election in 2020 and so had no effect on Virginia's vote.

Huh. Is Trump in charge of European Xi Jinping Flu vaccination? Or is European nuance, sophistication, and government-run universal health care not as wonderful as we've been told?

Like many things that the Chinese Communist Party rolls out on their people, I'm sure this anal swab test for the Xi Jinping Flu was originally designed for Uighurs. Just for spite.

"The U.N. Says America Is Already Cutting So Much Carbon It Doesn’t Need The Paris Climate Accord[.]" Yeah. Virtue signaling at the national level.

The Department of Defense will review Trump-ordered troop reductions in Iraq and Afghanistan. I support that.

So far there doesn't seem to be a let up in strikes on jihadis in Somalia after redeploying forces o Djibouti and Kenya. Is this based on pre-exit intelligence or can this continue as effectively?

The United States is looking at using Saudi bases to support naval and air operations in the Red Sea. This is a reaction to Iranian efforts to interdict Red Sea traffic via their Houthi allies. These would not be traditional bases but places where American forces could deploy for specific missions.

Already the media is french-kissing the Biden administration. Tell me media coverage won't look like The West Wing teen fan fiction?

American Marines and UAE troops held a week of exercises. Well, that's where a few will do

I guess it is nice that Biden affirmed America's commitment to NATO. But this is an American treaty-based commitment not subject to the whim of any single American president. I'd rather see Biden press NATO to meet its 2014 promise to spend 2% of GDP on defense by 2024.

Follow the science bioethics and social inequality! Nothing says a commitment to science like a sociology major. She's a "inspired choice." Let's just hope the actual director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy understands actual science. Because I'm told that innovation is only 10% inspiration but 90% perspiration. I'm a dreamer, I know. Tip to Instapundit.

It's early to be seeing Biden's popularity drop, especially when you consider the fawning media coverage bolstering him. But it makes sense if you imagine the people who voted against Trump have nothing about Biden to be for now that Trump is gone. Still, I'm a glass  half-full kind of man. At the rate his popularity is dropping, by June America will be united against Biden!

Well what part of the "Think happy things" sign on the shelf next to her ... thing ... was unclear? Tip--well, the entire story--to Instapundit.

I've been watching Dry Bar Comedy a lot lately on YouTube. It helps. 

I'm pretty sure this is BS given that the only riots I'm aware of ongoing are Antifa. I guess Insurrection Porn is replacing Tyrant Porn since Trump left office.

"Green" is the color of promoting Russian interests.

Venezuela is eying Guyana. More.

It sure looks like China is preparing to go to war with the Philippines over islands that China claims in defiance of international law. Will the Philippines just give in to China? Or will the Philippines fight a tiny war to dare China to risk escalation?

Iran smiles: "The Biden administration has imposed a temporary freeze on U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia and is scrutinizing purchases by the United Arab Emirates as it reviews billions of dollars in weapons transactions approved by former President Donald Trump, according to U.S. officials." On Holocaust Remembrance Day if you're into "dog whistle" signal detection games. Iran will also smile at the Biden threat to end American support for the Saudi military campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi in Yemen. I thought "leading from behind" was the ideal?

American Marines are in Norway for NATO exercises that Norway has now cancelled because of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic

Cancel culture comes for the cancel culture warriors. Who would have predicted that? "The left will find that when conservative thought is purged from the public spaces that then moderate thought is purged. Then mere liberal thought. Perhaps even progressive thought becomes 'problematic.'" We need to reverse trend this rather than laugh that it is coming for the leftists now. It is far from funny.

Air defense identification zones. They're a little more kinda, sorta like borders than I thought. But not really. But they are absolutely places where unpleasant accidental clashes can take place.

Yeah, I have to admit that the GameStop stock malarkey feels like the farce before the tragedy of a major market (downward) correction. I get more nervous as I get closer to retirement age and have less time to make up for such corrections. I'd put everything into conservative investments but I still need decades of earnings even after I start drawing on my retirement fund.

"Strategic patience" for China sounds so much better than "appeasement." The former is justified when you have hope for better behavior. Who expects communist China to be better now? Are the concentration camps and ethnic cleansing, pervasive and punitive surveillance state, crushing of Hong Kong freedoms, massive industrial and usual espionage, propaganda directed at the world, or territorial ambitions the signs of better days ahead from China? We need to make sure we do all that we can to deter China. Although until Taiwan is spending closer to 6% of its GDP on defense and fixing other capabilities gaps, I would not sell F-35s to Taiwan as that author suggested. I'd worry China could invade Taiwan and capture the planes intact. And I seriously doubt that Biden will follow this kind of national effort to resist China.

The United States will reconsider removing 12,000 troops from Germany as Trump ordered. I didn't mind the troops leaving Germany as long as the troops stayed in Europe and as long as the change improved American capabilities in Europe. And as I've noted many times, Trump's "demands for more defense spending" from European NATO nations were simply calls to meet commitments the allies made in 2014.

Killing jobs. Persecuting conservatives. Even more federal spending. Giving hope to China, Russia, and Iran. And no actual new pandemic plan as we were promised. And that's just the first week. We're totally going to soon look back on 2020 with fondness, aren't we?

Heck, even Congressional Democrats already miss 2020 as their impeachment of a man who isn't even president any more proves.

To be fair, the "After Trump" era is little different than any "After [Insert Republican president here]" era. Although the contrast is far more spectacular now. It might be the new normal of extremes.

Trump declared that China is guilty of "genocide and crimes against humanity" for its treatment of Uighurs. Biden is reviewing that to see if he can get the Chinese Communist Party off on a technicality.

Iranian and Taliban leaders shockingly blamed America for the war in Afghanistan. I'm sure we just need to reach out harder to them for that elusive "peace" defined as a Taliban victory. I never had any hope that Trump's push for peace with the Taliban could work.

China reminded Taiwan that a Taiwanese declaration of independence means war. Legally both sides consider China to be one political entity. In practice Taiwan is a free democracy while China is a communist-run thug state. But remember that declaring independence isn't the only trigger for war. Making insufficient progress toward reunification under Peking's control also means war. China decides whether sufficient progress is being made.

Democrats are happy to have Biden exercise powers that they said would be dictatorial had Trump used them. But as I've said on other issues, the outrage isn't that Biden is doing something illegal. The outrage is what is perfectly legal.

The outgoing ruler of the Democratic Republic of Congo (a.k.a. Zaire) engineered the victory of a thought-to-be-friendly replacement president in a rigged election. Parliament struck back. I guess the friendly replacement tired of the deal. Interesting.

A story on the U.S. getting an intact Pantsir air defense system out of Libya. I noted this back in the summer in this data dump.

Sadly accurate:

It looks like the Army's new assault bridge has been tweaked enough to field. Counting on enemies to leave bridges standing is too much to hope for if you want to maintain mobility. More on the new assault bridge.

A small battery-operated aim stabilizer for rifles advances what I've called "dumb but controlled" (DBC) firing. The Army will test ACE.

The Air Force finished structural upgrades on its 247 F-22s to give them 8,000 more hours of flying life.

The Navy now has the Block 5 Tomahawk cruise missile that provides long-range anti-ship capabilities. They are slow and so aren't the best for penetrating missile defenses. But they provide bulk and range. And if combined with better missiles that damage targets or otherwise engage enemy defenses, they might work well. Perhaps they are like the World War II dive bomber-torpedo bomber combination that required the dive bombers to distract the defenses so the slow and vulnerable torpedo bombers could survive until they launched their torpedoes. Or maybe cheaper decoy drones will screen the cruise missiles on the way in and deflect or attract the defensive fire.

People are rightly outraged that jihadis involved in the September 11, 2001 terror attacks will get priority for the Xi Jinping Flu vaccine well ahead of the vast majority of Americans. But isn't this burying the lede? How is it possible that close to 20 years after the attack that we haven't executed those bastards yet?! Are we sentencing them to die of old age? A late minute change! But honestly I'd rather the government vaccinate them and immediately execute them after.

Well, it's a little late because strains have popped up in Washington, D.C.: "The CDC has announced a full quarantine of Portland to prevent the spread of a dangerous virus known as communism." Those are tears of laughter you see on your dignified host's cheeks.

Iran wants nuclear weapons because its birthrate has plummeted? Which means human wave assaults can't be used to exploit numbers? One, human wave assaults are a poor way to exploit numbers. But if that is a cause and effect, why isn't Greenland pining for nukes? Face it, nutball thugs want nukes to make aggression easier. Maybe Iran should try not being a nutball state threatening other countries. An idea so crazy it just might work! Still, the idea that Iran's nuclear decision doesn't rest on America figuring out how to precisely calibrate concessions and rewards is useful. 

Stop looking for mythical "moderates" in Iran to support. "Moderates" in Iran's system are simply nutballs who wear suits and know how to say soothing things in English. True moderates aren't allowed near real power. Shia religious nutballs run Iran. Besides, aren't Democrats the ones who constantly tell us that supporting democrats and dissidents in foreign countries "taints" those democrats and dissidents by associating with America? I don't believe that. But Democrats claim to. Why doesn't support from America taint mythical Iranian moderates?

Will Navalny-inspired nationwide protests lead Putin to abandon even the pretense of ruling a democracy? Let's see if this spreads and escalates. But what if cracking down doesn't work out? What if the unrest puts enough pressure on Putin to make real concessions? And if so, is that a path to rule of law? Or just a dress rehearsal for something worse? Oddly, Putin didn't call this a "winter of love" and instead police arrested 2,700.

Israel opens the Saffron Front against Iran. That's gonna hurt.

Will China push a military crisis with Taiwan this year? If so, my guess is a quick land grab of the Pratas Islands before Taiwan's rapid reaction force can get set. If America does nothing effective in response, China may break the Taiwan-America link and set the stage for full invasion of Taiwan. If China moves like that, only American troops on Taiwan will be enough. Start with ground-based air defense, move to fighter aircraft, and then preposition equipment for an American armored brigade.

Space Force has a strategic vision centered on protecting America's satellites. Good. But eventually Space Force will need special forces troops.

Circle back better! You know it will be a mobius strip, right? Or maybe she thinks the journalists should already know what's wrong.

Regulation is a potential poison for the economy. So naturally, full speed ahead! Tip to Instapundit.

How long are we going to allow Chinese propaganda and espionage centers to infect our universities under the guise of Confucius Institutes? We wouldn't let Aryan Institutes flourish on our campuses. But these are fine?

These people are nuts and have to be stopped.

Yes:

How did I miss this?

I'm sure Pelosi will be cleared of wrongdoing. And once again we'll see that the true outrages aren't the illegal things our elites do to get ahead, but what they do that is perfectly legal.

A few fries short of a Happy Meal. Not all wierdos have a (D) after their name. Tip to Insanity Wrap. Still, we have bigger problems than one representative with odd views. Like the purge of conservatives that the left seems eager to carry out. Set some priorities.

The European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is under fire in her native Germany. She is blamed for effing up the European Union's Xi Jinping Flu pandemic vaccination program. Well maybe if Germans hadn't rewarded her for effing up the German military and promoting her incompetence to a higher level, they wouldn't be in this mess.

Yes, it's safer for scientists, the rich, cis women, and blue collar people to stay far away from the Biden administration:

Ethiopia is moving artillery to the Sudanese border. Because the locals with claims on Sudanese territory backed the Ethiopian government's offensive into Tigray to suppress separatists? How does it make sense to risk an external war to get support for the internal war? If Ethiopia wants to give Sudan a reason to let Egyptian jets base in Sudan to strike Ethiopia's massive GERD project that will dam the Nile River, this is it. I'm not saying Egypt would do it or even should do it. But stuff gets out of hand.

What the Hell, open up our southern border to unrestricted immigration! What could go wrong?

Another story about the extent of the Russian SolarWinds hack of American government and business systems. I still don't understand how this happened given that we knew it was going on in the spring.

These people are nuts and have to be stopped.

The judge certainly sent a message: We take care of our own as long as you break laws for Democrats.

How the media and Democratic politicians helped Portland's Antifa rioters. For some reason, the history of Soviet "intellectual" communists thinking they could use the "dumb" thug Joseph Stalin as their muscle comes to mind. Somehow Stalin himself emerged on the top of that pile of skulls. No worries Democrats! I'm sure your violent street thugs will go home quietly when you explain that Uncle Joe is in the White House. Tip to Instapundit.

American-led coalition forces converted the top Iraqi ISIL official into a "good jihadi" via  an airstrike.

It would certainly be good to be able to send robots into enemy tunnels rather than troops.

The Russians continue to work on their new Borei-class SSBN and its new Bulava solid-fuel nuclear missiles. This is high priority for the Russians who have lost a lot of the skills needed to make such things. The Russians accept that half of the missiles won't work if fired. Still, it's a survival nuclear deterrent for use in Arctic and Sea of Okhotsk defended bastions. Half of a high-priority nuclear deterrent force doesn't work. Do you wonder why I speculate that Russia's ICBM force is a Potemkin deterrent? Russia's nukes are not immune to the problems plaguing the rest of Russia's military and arms industry. I sometimes wonder if New START is an American favor to Russia to maintain the fiction that Russia has working strategic nuclear weapons sufficient to deter China. The shorter-range Russian nukes are simpler and can reach China and Europe. So Russia has a bunch of them.

Space Force is generally keeping Air Force ranks. With the exception of "airmen" who are now "specialists." I wanted enlisted ranks based on "spacor." I think a space navy needs to wait until we are beyond the Earth-Moon system.

Six weeks ago the long lock-down winter stretched ahead of me. I hate winter in the best of times. I vowed to finally complete the painting of tons of miniatures that I've accumulated over the last couple decades. I gave myself the winter to finish this project. I do not have a dedicated place to leave them while I work. So I only intermittently painted a small amount of items that I had to put away quickly to get on with life. During the pandemic lock down, I found I could leave the painting factory on my dining table. Nobody is seeing that eye sore now! I'm making good progress. I finished all the World War II warships first. Lord, putting some of them together given the tiny pieces involved was not fun with my older eyes. I confess for a couple of them I said screw the tiny cranes and anti-aircraft mounts--it looks fine as is! Seriously, there was no reason the anti-aircraft tubs had to be cast separately. That was just spite. I'm looking at you GHQ! I started buying your stuff 45 years ago. Tell me I'm not your demographic in a world of video games? I'm almost finished with the World War II and modern armor. Then I will go to Medieval figures, a small number of American Civil War miniatures to round out that collection, and finally a bunch of Roman and Gaul figures. The last three groups have to be mounted on stands, too. And I decided to redo my World War II and modern infantry mounting schemes. The painting I can surely finish. All the mounting will be a challenge. I'm not 13 any more, and hours and hours of painting and gluing are beyond my attention span. So a little each day, generally. My interest in elaborate camouflage schemes has evaporated, too. I'm lucky I can still paint the tracks and tires. Sadly, I discovered a hole in my Japanese fleet. But I know what company I won't be buying the ships from! I think just two heavy cruisers should be enough. Oh God, I should mount some aircraft on stands too, on wires for strike missions. I really need to haul the rules out and fight battles with them, as well. That's the point of having them. And speaking of that, I want to paint more forest on the geomorphic 3D playing boards I made in the late 1980s for land battles. The terrain is way too open. And then the playing board for the ancients for a particular battle. And I need something for battles with my Spanish-American War ships. I think I need the lock down to last a little longer! Just kidding. Really. 

America's hostile retreat into virtual separate states online undermines my thinking that peace could be promoted in some cases by separating sovereignty from land. Of course, I assumed one side wouldn't pursue the other side to the ends of the Internet in order to cancel and punish them. I'm no QAnon, that's for sure.

One more reason I'm glad I'm not on any social media. We're going to find out that you can't trust the judgment of anybody who is on them, aren't we? Tip to Instapundit.

"White House shifts from Middle East quagmires to a showdown with China[.]" Well, Obama set the precedent by pretending to confront China in order to abandon the Middle East. And "quagmire?" Really? We have Iraqi and Afghan governments who kill jihadis every day. Our troop strength in both countries is about 2,500 with few direct ground combat roles. Quagmires? I think not. Is South Korea a quagmire? Is Japan a quagmire? Europe? Defending wins isn't a "quagmire." It's defending America by supporting allies we created by force of arms.

I don't see the impeachment trial as a clever Democratic trap to expose Trump's language of "inciting" a single riot. The defense should have plenty of Democratic incitement over the years--not just since last spring--to mine for inciting language for lots of violence. To show for context. And add in media praise or defense of that incitement. I could easily be wrong, I suppose. But if Trump's team goes on offense and makes it a trial about Democratic support for violence, how do the Democrats win?

Biden protects and rewards the coup plotters. Democrats are going to get away with their Russia collusion coup plot, aren't they?

I'm sorry, but I find this hilarious. What did liberals think would happen when they decided that the most offended people determine standards?

If leftists really thought the Republican Party was no different from ISIL, the leftists would be sympathetically asking "why do they (Republicans) hate us?" as if the leftists did something to deserve being hated.

Capitol Police want the 8-foot fences set up for the non-existent inauguration day MAGA assault made permanent. Which is odd. For longer than Trump was elected I'd been assured that the answer to an 8-foot fence was a 9-foot ladder. Apparently that silly argument is being abandoned. Or perhaps Central American migrants are just more resourceful than mythical right-wing insurgents.

Will this thruster speed us into the solar system? It might be the only way to escape social media-based oppression on Earth. Tip to Instapundit.

The glories of media oral sex. Tip to Instapundit.

Remember when liberals said not to worry about the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic from China coming to America? Good times. I'd forgive them for simply being wrong. That happens. But they've memory holed their dismissal of the virus in their zeal to wrongly blame everything on Trump.

Killing jobs.

The Navy's top intelligence officer hopes that China keeps pouring money into anti-ship ballistic missiles. Interesting. Either that is disinformation because the Navy is very worried. Or the Navy thinks it can break the kill chain.

They had nothing more productive to protest than Xi Jinping Flu vaccine shots? Really?

At this point I think all insults should be based on "peta." You motherpeta! Petahead! Don't be a peta. I dare you, you peta! You traitorous peta!

The Marines finally have a replacement for their aging and vulnerable AAV-7 amphibious assault vehicle, the ACV 1.1. It carries 3 crew and 13 Marines. I must admit that some details amuse me. The ACV is far better protected against IEDs than the AAV-7. That vulnerability is why I hated seeing them used in Iraq as a personnel carrier. But the Marines have rejected land warfare. They even gave up their tanks. Instead the Marines will support the Navy more directly. Is there really a threat of insurgent IEDs on the small islands the Marines will deploy to in INDOPACOM to set up anti-ship batteries? Oddly, the post didn't mention armament. Which is a .50 caliber machine gun in a remote weapons station. With the room to install a turret with a machine gun and grenade launcher instead.

The east coast 2nd Marine Division deactivated one of its infantry regiments to redirect resources to direct support of the Navy. I'd have thought that in European, Latin American, and African theaters that an infantry regiment would be more useful than anti-ship assets.

Huh. Chinese sailors don't handle cramped and isolated cruises on submarines very well. It seems that our Navy screen and train better. And longer experience with submarines and long deployments in general seems to be a factor. Navy practices alleviate problems. I bet the Cold War sense of purpose and danger helped reduce the problem for the Navy back then. The problem worries me if China starts sending nuclear missile-armed SSBNs to sea for routine patrols. 

I've mentioned somewhere above that the Air Force is practicing sending aircraft to remote islands in the Pacific in case of war against China. This is another take on the Guam exercise which is a safer practice run for actual remote islands.

Sometimes I think the best way for Taiwan to survive the China threat is to foment regime change in China.

I'm against Biden's massive "infrastructure" stimulus funding plan as much as I was against it when Trump proposed it: totally. 

I'm looking forward to following Jonah Goldberg more closely again. I understood his opposition to Trump himself and non-conservative policies from Trump. I get it. And I will say he didn't join the pro-Democratic factions that pretended to still be Republican. What eventually drove me away from Jonah for a while was his violation of my rule that however much you dislike Trump, there is no way his policies are worse than Democrats. I'm sorry that Trump combined in one person Obama's thin resume', Bill Clinton's and JFK's personal failures, and Johnson's crudeness, but you go to policy with the president you have and not the one you wish you had. Jonah's criticisms--while often valid--violated that rule too often for my tastes. But that's on me. To his credit, I trust that Jonah was being stalwart in defense of conservatism. So I look forward to that during the Biden administration without the hints of TDS that were off-putting. So I've got that going for me. Which is nice. I'd love to see a Republican who fights as hard as Trump against the Democratic-media complex but without his baggage. That would keep the new voters Trump attracted while winning back suburban voters he repelled. But perhaps that's a unicorn, I concede.

Well, maybe Pelosi's Impeachment II: This Time It's Personal will work out for Democrats after all. I read Sunday morning that Trump wants to base his defense on widespread election fraud. This would be instead of comparing his pre-Capitol Building riot language to a long history of identical or worse Democratic language that the media declared perfectly okey dokey.

Strange new media respect in 3, 2, 1 ... . Tip to Instapundit.

Feeling all the "healing" yet?

I have no idea if the charges of war crimes by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces in the Tigray region of Ethiopia are true. But Eritrean troops are in Tigray. Have Ethiopia and Eritrea made common cause against the Tigray forces? If so, what does Eritrea want? 

Apparently hybrid vehicles turn their engines off automatically when the vehicle stops. I'd noticed this and thought people were just being dumb. Doesn't turning off and on after short time repeatedly just put a strain on starters? I guess not for hybrids. Still, my Army training was do not turn off the engine until you get to where you are going. Even during refueling. Because it might not turn back on. Note to self: avoid buying a hybrid for peace of mind.

Who knew that reducing the police would result in an increase in shootings and murders? Oopsy. Tip to Instapundit.

I can't enjoy the Reddit stock market punitive raids. When this is just fun and games--and some perhaps just "revenge"--my sphincter clenches when I ponder that my retirement fund is on that battlefield. It can't be good that price signals are being distorted. Again, tip to Instapundit.

Yes, for God's sake keep the electric vehicles in suburban malls and off the battlefield. But a canteen-holder would be nice.

And a LOL for this:

The right simply cannot follow the left's example of excusing and even encouraging or celebrating political violence seen as promoting its interests. Those on the right should not be tempted to grimly think "Let's see how they like it." It is far better to loudly denounce "friendly" violence while also denouncing leftist violence and its enablers. That path will eventually appeal to voters in the middle. And it has the advantage of not contributing to an advance down the path toward widespread political violence. Our enemies abroad would love that and will in fact encourage it.

Saturday, January 30, 2021

Winning At Any Cost

Yes, dissent went from the highest form of patriotism--including illegal actions to in effect overthrow an elected president--to sedition:

When November [2020] was just decorating the flagstones of D.C. with faded leaves, the Democrat cliques inside federal agencies were still touting their skill at undermining the White House in chats with reporters at bars where drinks cost more than most Americans earn in a day.

These members of the “resistance” had spent four years undermining elected officials while falsely claiming that they were entitled to do it because the 2016 election had been illegitimate.

Government officials boasted anonymously of undermining President Trump, members of Congress and their staffers helped protesters get inside to disrupt hearings, rioters who assaulted police officers and attacked federal buildings were bailed out by Democrat officials and celebrities who enlisted Silicon Valley and major corporations to support the riots.

By the time November was done, resistance had been rebranded as “sedition”. Storming Capitol Hill went from a passionate endeavor by Democrat activists protesting the Kavanaugh nomination, the environment, or some other lefty cause, to the single worst event since 9/11.

Black Lives Matter riots had besieged the White House and set fire to its guardhouse, while still being defended by Democrats and the media as peaceful protesters. The media agonized over photos of federal agents protecting the Lincoln Memorial as a sign of incipient fascism. Less than a year later, 25,000 troops occupying D.C. like Baghdad are being cheered by the media.

The insanity in Democratic ranks has to end. They are impeaching a former president, for God's sake!

Most Americans are thankfully not that insane (tip to Instapundit):

Most Americans do not want former President Donald Trump convicted in the upcoming Senate trial, fearing by a wide margin that it will further divide the election-torn nation.

Democrats took the White House and both housed of Congress. They now only seem to care about being on the might side of history. My satire efforts seem more like predictions now.

If Republicans get as extreme as the Democrats have become, there will be bloody street clashes. 

Only our enemies want that, whether Antifa/BLM and related domestic leftists (with few on the right with similar goals now) or foreign enemies.

Friday, January 29, 2021

The Fourth Empire Needs an Army

Wait. What? Biden won't save trans-Atlantic relations and stand up to the Russkies? What other conclusion can I draw from new propaganda in favor of European Union military power?

I addressed this pro-EU military article already, but this nonsense deserves its own post:

Macron’s dream [of autonomous EU military capabilities] is no threat to the United States. It could be a big improvement on the current reality, where a bunch of allies punch well below their weight. In their weakness, these allies are more likely to strike separate bargains with America’s real rivals. It became clear that this could happen with Macron’s tentative and ultimately failed attempt last year at forging a friendlier relationship with Russia. Macron was motivated in part by the perception that the White House wasn’t interested in standing with the Europeans against the Russians. Macron has no love for Putin, but he was not about to take any big risks by opposing him alone. A stronger Europe could.

What fantasy world is that author living in? I guess it at least isn't the fantasy world where Trump caused the trans-Atlantic defense rift, because doesn't President Biden solve that by his mere existence?

European states today aren't trying to cut deals because they are afraid of the Russians. European NATO states have been cutting defenses since the American-led West won the Cold War. Once a much stronger Soviet Red Army stood on the Elbe River in the middle of divided Germany. Today a weakened Russia is pushed east beyond the Baltic states, Belarus, and non-Russian-occupied Ukraine. 

If Europeans were afraid of Russia their defenses wouldn't have reached dangerous depths by 2013. The Europeans wouldn't have had to be forced into pledges in 2014 to boost defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2024. Face it, European states cut deals with Russia because they aren't afraid of the Russians! Individual European NATO states hope to get bilateral advantage while counting on the rest of NATO to be a defense safety net.

Except for the NATO states close to Russia (plus non-NATO Ukraine, Sweden, and Finland) most NATO states dismiss the Russian military threat. Those further west figure the new NATO states and non-NATO states are a buffer. If Russia rises, they will absorb the first wave of Russian conquests. Only then would the other Europeans want to boost defenses. That's why Trump needed to browbeat Europeans to meet their 2014 pledge.

And the Germans are a whole separate category of bizarre logic for disarming. I'm not sure what their major malfunction is.

Have no doubt that an autonomous European military will be far less effective than the established NATO alliance military it will replace. And I'm just counting the European effectiveness transferred from NATO to the EU. How will a EU military replace what America brings to NATO?

And if you say that a EU military will also have American power to help it, I swear I will once more beat you with the clue bat.

A European Union military replacing national European military forces may be mostly para-military or light infantry better suited for fighting civilians. And it will cripple NATO and eject America from Europe. That EU military will have one purpose only. To enforce a Brezhnev Brussels Doctrine that forbids any more exits from the paradise on the continent that the EU pretends it is building. Brexit them once, shame on Britain, exit them twice and shame on the empire.

Resist the EU. Freedom requires it.

UPDATE: Related:

You probably won’t agree with all of Mr. Embery’s policy prescriptions, but he will force you to think outside your usual political grooves. “Despised” makes a compelling case that “global governance” is radically incompatible with democracy, civil liberties and broadly shared prosperity. Supranational agencies like the EU inevitably concentrate power in unresponsive bureaucracies and concentrate wealth in multinational corporations. The left should have resisted their rise, but conservatives too were slow to recognize that globalization subverted everything they valued: traditional communities, patriotism, religious faith, stable families, unintrusive government and personal freedom. Mr. Embery’s goal is to build a society where citizens no longer feel like colonial subjects in their own country. He reminds us that the British exited the EU due to “the desire for self-government and sovereignty”—the same reason that the Irish and the Indians exited the British Empire. [emphasis added]
I was never deluded about the EU. Brussels is building an empire. Don't support that.

Everything Under the Heavens

Can an old Soviet book on exploiting sea power apply to China now? 

I read that old book in college. Russia certainly can't afford to apply that book's arguments. Russia's far greater need for land power (and the air power to support it), a declining shipbuilding industry, and a smaller economy rule that out. 

China, however, probably could gain advantage from its outline for exploiting control of the seas. It has the trade interests to and economy to justify and support a navy. China's naval power is a historical oddity, yet is threatening to surpass American capabilities:

While the U.S. Navy is stuck with a dysfunctional warship construction capability and new technology it cannot afford, the Chinese have avoided the American mistakes so far and are rapidly closing the quality gap. That includes having their new ships spend a lot of time at sea, in all seasons and weather, to gain operational experience that can be obtained no other way.

All this is the result of China concluding that it is no longer enough just to be the major land-based military power in East Asia, as they have been for thousands of years. The new Chinese economy requires that China protect its access to foreign markets and sources of raw materials. A large, modern navy would not only do that but also be capable of contesting the naval domination that West has had for centuries.

China now has a naval strategy unlike any in its history. That is one component of a Chinese strategy that involves ambitious goals on land and sea. China is seeking ownership of the South China Sea, large chunks of India and, rather quietly, the Far Eastern Russian territories. [In] addition Chinese seeks naval domination in the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Going after adjacent land areas is the traditional Chinese way of expanding.

American stumbling on shipbuilding worries me more than China's growing naval power. 

I hope that China's push for decisive naval power at the expense of traditional land power needs will divide Chinese power enough to lead to defeat on land and at sea.

And in the meantime, increase the friction on the alignment of Russia and China.

China is big. But is it big enough for such ambitious goals?

And do we know how expansive China's territorial goals are?


Space Force has best think about ground forces.

Or will the weight of Chinese history eventually sink the modern Chinese fleet? After all, it is common to think China's long history gives them unique long-range planning capabilities. Maybe that history is a curse more than a gift.

Thursday, January 28, 2021

Own the Skies

Small combat air patrol swarms are necessary to defend our forward infantry.

This article is about coping with enemy night-fighting capabilities that are eroding our boast that we "own the night." But it makes a point about air defense I've addressed:

Consider, for a moment, the potential effect a suicide drone swarm of the sort seen in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would have on a dismounted rifle company. While the company might feel insulated and secure as it moves under cover of darkness, a swarm of relatively inexpensive suicide drones with electro-optical targeting would find such a target irresistible and easily targetable by identifying thermal or beacon strobe patterns. 

I don't think our troops can carry around enough air defense weapons to protect themselves from the swarming drone threat without crippling their primary infantry missions.

So in Army magazine I proposed air defense drone swarms that protect the forward combat units without requiring those troops to degrade their ground combat capabilities just to survive.

To Be or Not to Be? That is Finally the Carrier Question

So what is the future of the super carrier in the Navy after 2040?

Let's find out:

In March 2020, the now-former U.S. acting Secretary of the Navy (SECNAV), Thomas Modly, established the “Future Carrier 2030 Task Force” (FC-2030). The task force aimed to commission a six-month study on the aircraft carrier's future viability (CV) and carrier-based aviation (CVA) concepts. The FC-2030 ran parallel to another study commissioned by the then Deputy Defense Secretary David Norquist on the USN’s “Future Fleet Platform Architecture” (FFPA).

The establishment of the FC-2030 and FFPA came amid an organization-wide transformative effort by the U.S. Navy (USN) and U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) to prepare for a future great-power conflict against the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) in the Indo-Pacific region. As such, both sought to complement the USN’s “Distributed Maritime Operations” (DMO) and the USMC’s “Expeditionary Advance Base Operations” (EABO) concepts, as General David Berger explained in a recent “Commandant Planning Guidance” report.

Quite some time ago I thought the carrier needed to be phased out of the fleet in favor of networked forces:

The emergence of network-centric warfare does not mean the near-term obsolescence of large aircraft carriers. The useful roles for these aircraft carriers will diminish in time, however, beginning with the forward presence role. In a peacetime operating routine, aircraft carriers that sail in another nation's surveillance and strike network will be vulnerable to a bolt from the blue and may actually invite war rather than deter it. Only against enemies incapable of striking them will carriers retain their power to awe in peacetime engagement. They may become the aging gunslingers relying on their reputation from the glory days. As strike platforms in the Navy's network, aircraft carriers will retain a role far longer, but even in this role they will face limits. The Navy will need to keep them far from the enemy, closing the range only to strike. This will preserve the carriers for war fighting missions on American terms and preclude tempting an enemy into initiating a conflict in order to strike a serious blow at the onset of war.

I should note that sinking a carrier isn't necessary for a mission kill that lasts the duration of a war.

And shore-based assets in advanced bases with the Marines' new EABO fit with this networked force, too. I wanted dispersed Marine Expeditionary Companies on fast armed transports, as I argued for in Proceedings several years ago (membership required):

[Marine advanced bases] will allow the United States to “turn the A2/AD table” on an enemy by deploying weapons and sensors in a “network of numerous austere bases—by occupation or seizure—as a means of dispersing aircraft, missiles, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets” that deny an enemy the ability to operate in those waters and in that air space. Such advance expeditionary bases equipped with long-range strike, antiship, and antiair systems would function as “sea denial outposts.”

Such outposts—quickly established and abandoned as needed—could be used for forward arming and refueling points to support dispersed air operations ashore, making a transition between sea-based and land-based Marine air power truly seamless.

The Navy Expeditionary Combat Command (NECC) also should be part of the dragon swarm concept. The NECC could create island defense forces of mixed infantry, air defense, and antiship (tube, rocket, and missile) units. Their coastal riverine force patrol boats also would contribute. Used in place of MECs, NECC coastal defense units would hold small islands and force an enemy to operate in an A2/AD environment.

The Marines have really embraced this role. Perhaps too much because I think NECC units could do a lot of what Marines will do. The first Littoral Regiment for that role will be formed next fiscal year.

And I'm not happy with the envisioned Light Amphibious Warfare ship for the new role.

My view on carriers supports the post-2040 time frame of the new inquiry. We have carriers. Simply dumping ships with 50-year lifespans loses their capabilities in situation short of general war for control of the seas. They will also be useful for air defense and for pursuing and destroying broken fleets. And for exploiting sea control to project power ashore. For a while, at least.

Mostly I want to move beyond carrier debates to sea power debates.

Wednesday, January 27, 2021

We Only Rented the Night

Our forces have boasted that "we own the night." No lead lasts forever.

Enemies catch up

While US forces operated at night with near impunity during the post-9/11 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, potential enemies have rapidly closed the technological gap. ... 

A near-peer adversary is not the only concern. Commercial technology has proliferated a host of near-military-grade infrared and thermal devices that could be used by insurgents[.]" 

That happens. We need to adapt.  

This essay on the Naval Institute Blog is my effort to think ahead to after precision weapons reach our infantry. Enemies will close that assumed technological gap, too. And I wrote that even militias and terrorists would get good-enough versions of the technology to challenge our infantry. 

I proposed troop quality superiority rather than hope for a new technological edge. Although that wouldn't be bad, too.

Mistrust. But Don't Be Terrified

Russia should be contained. But let's not mistakenly think of them as our main enemy. God help us but I think "Smart Diplomacy" is returning.

Seriously, is that Obama Reset forgotten already? 

After President-elect Joe Biden is inaugurated on January 20, some elements of U.S. policy toward Russia will change immediately. No longer will the president of the United States seek to befriend Russian President Vladimir Putin, as President Donald Trump did throughout his tenure.

I guess this "Reset" between Russia's invasion of Georgia and Russia's invasion of Ukraine didn't happen:

For God's sake, Russia's "rise" under Putin is a "dead cat bounce." The Fuck-Up Fairy has taken up residence in Moscow

Russia is the weakening junior partner of the Peer-Level Axis of Evil. We should want to split Russia from China:

As I've noted, Russia's hostility to NATO makes more sense if you see it as disguising their appeasement of the far stronger China to protect Russia's Far East from China's claims to reverse the last reminders of a "century of humiliation."

And worse for Russia, while detente with NATO would allow Russia to consider their European territory as a safe rear area when confronting China, NATO will be of no help against China directly. Despite their paranoia, Russians surely recognize that a NATO that has been reluctant to defend new NATO states in the east will not extend its defensive shield all the way to the Amur River.

So oppose China. And oppose Russia. But don't publicly talk like they are allies. Instead work quietly to sow divisions in a Chinese-Russian relationship that has a lot of problems to overcome before being an alliance that can harm America and our allies.

With luck and quiet work, they'll be happy to glare at each other as the more dangerous close threat as they have in the past.

Russia needs American friendship. Don't bid for Russian friendship in the mistaken belief that Russia is the main threat. While Putin is in power, we can't entice Russia to sanity. Yet we should not push Russia closer to China with pointless public hostility to Russia.

Although honestly, with Trump gone I can't imagine Democrats maintaining their sudden and unnatural hostility to Moscow.

Still, this bit from the article is confusing:

And the White House’s rhetoric about the United States’ transatlantic allies will shift markedly; the era of berating NATO will end this week.

"Berating NATO?" Seriously? Despite public good will expressed to Putin, Trump reinforced NATO defenses in the east from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. And his "berating" was mostly pushing NATO European states to meet their 2014 pledge to spend 2% of their GDP on defense by 2024. Trump strengthened NATO.

How would letting up on pushing NATO to spend more on defense part of a renewed hostility toward Russia?

The end of "berating" largely will consist of NATO not making more progress on that spending front while America says "That'll be fine." Just as public hostility to Russia ramps up! Smart Diplomacy, welcome back!

Oh, but I suppose I can eagerly await that priority of "liberal norms and democratic values" in our foreign policy when it comes to China and Iran, too. Right?