Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Europe's Competing Fears

In case you missed it on Substack: Taiwan Reports On Its Defense

In case you missed it on Substack: Monkey Weapons For a Long War

In case you missed it on Substack: War Plan RED

The Army wants swarms of small ground drones. I have my doubts about that.

Things are heating up between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Taiwan wants ten small frigates to counter air and submarine threats.

Iran’s mullahs want to get the old band together for some “Death to America” rallies. Isn’t that what we’d call a target-rich environment?

I think the main thing we can learn from the Winter War of 2022 is the “accelerated offense-defense technological cycle” from the drone war.

Do Xi’s military purges increase the risk that Xi will receive no cautions about embarking on a war? Or were they standing in the way of preparing for the war Xi dreams about?

As I’ve said, America is not becoming isolationist: “Trumpism did not lead, as critics predicted, to isolationism and the abandonment of America’s allies and interests.” America is reorienting and reloading. And hoping to avoid ground wars.

Russian logistics failures—while good enough to keep fighting this war—undermine Russia’s military capabilities. Not that we should relax. But remember that Stalin’s World War II advances were aided by masses of Allied trucks that helped keep the Red Army moving.

So far, Russian opposition to waging war on Ukraine and $5 will get you a cup of coffee.

This year Singapore will get its first of an eventual 20 F-35s purchased.

Really interesting denial that drones ended maneuver: “History suggests that when armies falter, new weapons often rise to compensate: not because they transform war, but rather because they expose the weaknesses of those fighting it.” Maneuver is not dead.

Does the Venezuela air power and cyber demonstration show a new strategic model? No. There were boots on the ground in this special forces mission. It’s just one more thing in the combined arms kit.

China weakens helps Russia: “Ukraine receives satellite intelligence from the United States. Russian military satellites are in such bad shape that Russia must depend on China for satellite imagery.” Putting the “enemy” in “frenemy”.

The Pentagon wants swarms of UAVs that can be launched and recovered from boxes.

The Russians have worries about their SSBN bastion in the Arctic if American power in the region expands. Well, we have worries about Russian expansion, too.

Well of course American SSNs could operate out of Australia’s new SSN base.

Will the “temporary” yellow line n Gaza become Israel’s new border with Hamas? As long as Hamas refuses to surrender, yes. And maybe it is for the best.

That seems wise: “Planning a massive expansion of its armed forces by 2039, Poland is deliberately building a national capacity for sustained high-intensity war.” America is involved.

Bringing ISIL prisoners into Iraq from Syria to hold them is better than letting them escape in Syria to then threaten Iraq and the region. But only if they don’t escape in Iraq.

Russia’s shutdown of Telegram to stifle questions about Russian claims of inevitable victory over Ukraine will harm their own military which uses it rather than crappy military communications.

Somebody is under pressure: “U.S. military forces boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean after tracking the ship from the Caribbean Sea, the Pentagon said Monday.”

Maybe a carrier strike group shouldn’t be the only solution to a foreign crisis.

After nearly 25 years of effort to move 5,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam, we should say “never mind”? I’d rather not have them pinned on Okinawa under Chinese missile fire. And about keeping that Marine airfield on Okinawa.

I like to think modularity is a good idea that we screwed the pooch on with the LCS.

Huh: “Indonesia’s army is preparing up to 8,000 troops for a possible peacekeeping mission in Gaza[.]”

The diplomatic dance of American policy toward China as America says “nice snarling doggy” while reaching for a big stick.

I’d rather face the problems of a declining China and Russia than face the problems of a rising China and Russia better able to enable their aggressive goals.

Is China really brilliantly (somehow) pressuring Taiwan to take it over without force?Or just pretending—perhaps reinforcing a CCP ploy to “appear far”—that China isn’t planning for war.

American interference with Cuba’s oil imports is hurting that socialist Hell hole. Although implying that America’s refusal to trade causes Cuba’s past problems ignores that the rest of the world traded with Cuba. It’s ultimately a socialism problem.

It is interesting that the Special Forces cheap close air support plane for low and slow missions fighting insurgents is now getting stand-off weapons.

Advocates for the Air Force say it needs 300+ next-generation F-47 fighters and 200+ B-21 bombers.

The status of the potential Northwest Passage will be decided by capabilities and not laws. I feel the same way about the South China Sea.

I certainly want this crisis in Iran to be the one that overthrows the mullahs. But I’ve been hoping all my adult life.

A large American airlift to the Middle East is nothing relatively speaking without a massive sealift, too. But it could mean a significant non-ground campaign against Iran.

Huh: “According to reports, China conducted a low-yield nuclear explosive test [in 2020] and failed to disclose it.”

Arguing that Russia’s offensive hasn’t progressed beyond the scope of the 1916 Battle of the Somme on the World War I Western Front. I was all over that Western Front issue in Army magazine.

Pakistan’s military wants to maintain it political control inside Pakistan and wants help to confront India. China is glad to help.

Russia wages war on Europe to win the war against Ukraine.

Working to integrate small UAVs into American armored brigades.

Drone defense: “The Army signed a $5.2 million deal for the Bumblebee V2, a type of small inexpensive drone that counters enemy aircraft by crashing directly into them.“ Fighter drones!

Well, war is organized violence after all: “Buoyed by billions in investments into robotic systems, the Navy is considering how it will manage the swarms of unmanned surface, subsurface and aerial drones throughout the fleet.” I have my doubts about blue water USV swarms.

Helping those who help themselves: “The U.S. is sending 200 troops to Nigeria to train the country’s military to fight Islamist militants[.]”

Covid might look like a walk in the park by comparison. Please adjust your pucker factor to its fully upright position.

Two older Los Angeles boats are just the tip of the INDOPACOM SSN iceberg, right? I really don’t get why we do stunts like this.

I’m rather shocked that the president’s ability to use the National Guard was curtailed. I mean, I spent a lot of time in uniform mowing grass and cleaning things. It’s not unusual.

Cancelling the conversion of Marine MLRs at two—which I mentioned—is the beginning of restoring Marine capabilities divested in Force Design 2030. The MLRs could become forward observers, essentially, to call in fires from other units. To include Marine aircraft and helicopters?

Unless I’m missing something important, Britain’s effort to turn over the Chagos Islands, thus putting the Diego Garcia base at risk seems insane.

Yes, I worry that China’s arsenal of autocracy could overwhelm America in a years-long war.

Was this a mercenary business deal in Congo or an informal American expedition?

Forward defense of the North Atlantic: “The UK government has pledged to increase its military presence in Norway over the next three years, as part of efforts to combat Russian threats in the region.” The increase doubles their 1,000 troops. Building the bastion, eh?

Iran will not agree to real limits on uranium enrichment or ballistic missiles. Iran already has its model for a deal.

Did drug cartel UAV use prompt the U.S. to close the air space over El Paso, Texas?

This is not shocking at all: “The State Department has concluded that Code Pink and People's Forum are linked to Chinese influence operations, according to a report the agency sent to Congress.” Cause or effect? Tips to Instapundit.

Are 4th generation nuclear weapons small enough and different enough to be considered non-nuclear (by China—not their victims) warheads to overwhelm Taiwan’s missile defenses with long-range ballistic missiles? Or Guam or Okinawa, for that matter.

Unrest in Iran already defies claims that the 12-Day War would of course cause Iranians to rally around the flag. Is the situation different enough from past protest movements to collapse the mullah regime?

A second carrier strike group ordered to get ready for deploying to CENTCOM.

I think refusing to prosecute legislators for the unnecessary and terrible “illegal orders” video is correct (I was taught that as a new recruit). But former or retired officers should resign their commission and forfeit their pension if elected to office so they won’t violate the UCMJ.

The Air Force is working on hub and spoke deployments for aircraft in the Pacific to avoid being in the hub bullseye.

It seems like Britain is reaching out to fellow JEF member, Norway, to bolster defense against the Russian threat from the north. Defending the GIN Gap is better than the GIUK Gap, eh? Tip to Matthew Palmer.

The Navy gets anti-drone rifle ammunition. Add smart rifles as I addressed on the USNI Blog, and now we’re talking!

Star Orbital wars.

Well that’s boring: “American policymakers are telling European leaders not to expect major U.S. troop drawdowns anytime soon, according to seven U.S. and NATO officials, calming widespread fears across the continent’s capitals.”

Allies, friends, enemies, and foes get nervous when a country as powerful as America stops being predictable. But it is not random. I believe Trump is simply in a hurry to achieve things that can’t be done by blue ribbon white papers issued in five years and then ignored.

I just don’t see the purported opportunities that China is trying to exploit within America’s allegedly roiling alliances. Especially in Asia.

How will Japan’s Takaichi use her new mandate to change Japan?

The House of Representatives pushed back on Trump’s tariffs on Canada. I suspect his interpretation of his tariff powers are overly broad. But then again as I’ve often said, it’s not what government does that is illegal that shocks me, but what it does that is perfectly legal.

China’s program for espionage and to fund and focus useful idiots in democratic countries.

Post-Maduro Venezuela: “The downside is that after Maduro’s exit, Chavismo becomes a guerrilla group, and the upside is that oil revenues, better managed by a new business elite, are used to finance a reconstruction plan for Venezuela modeled on the Marshall Plan.” Fingers crossed.

Mission accomplished notwithstanding the absolute silliness of fearing America more than Russia: “NATO is beefing up its Arctic presence in a move designed less to deter Russia than it is to deter Donald Trump.”

Syria’s Islamist forces have occupied the evacuated American base at al-Tanf. Iraq is losing its shield. I just thank God we didn’t further militarize the Syrian conflict to help non-jihadis defeat Assad. All I can say in favor is that a war to hold our Syria bases would be a mistake.

The evolution of naval combat against a peer enemy means there will be few safe havens in a war. Or even none. The RAND report cited was written by Bradley Martin who I had as a TA in college. He was easily the best TA I had.

I simply don’t believe that North Korea’s blue water navy is a threat.

This is not America abandoning NATO: “Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby on Thursday called for NATO to be based on “partnership rather than dependency” ahead of talks with the military alliance’s defense ministers in Brussels.”

Can we build what we fund? “The fiscal 2027 defense budget could double the number of ships the Navy is set to procure under the fiscal 2026 defense budget[.]”

Japan is not bending to China’s pressure: “Japanese authorities have seized a Chinese fishing vessel and arrested the captain for allegedly defying an order to stop for ⁠inspection by fisheries authorities in Japan’s exclusive maritime economic zone, officials said.”

NATO’s Dynamic Front exercise: “The goal is to be able to shoot down 600 to 1200 ballistic missiles in a 24-hour period … as well as be able to fire on 1,500 [ground] targets during that same time.” So are the magazine’s still full in hour 25?

Sure, the American national defense strategy praises Trump a lot. It is uncomfortable to read. But let’s try context, eh? Recall how much the bureaucracy undermined the president in his first term. The price of that now is open expressions of support.

If we shot down a “party balloon” near El Paso rather than a drug cartel drone, we really need better abilities to track and identify small threats.

This defeated a drone swarm in a test: “The Coyote Block 3NK uses a non-kinetic payload to loiter and defeat UAS while aiming to reduce collateral damage.”

The Pentagon is seeking to protect the highly networked F-35 from being hacked. This type of problem was a worry of mine early on.

I think describing Russia’s strategy for "dominance" in Eurasia is kind of pointless given Russia’s face plant in Ukraine. Still, I see one path in Eurasia for survival.

The long path to transferring operational control of mostly South Korean forces during a war from America to South Korea. South Korea can handle much more of the jobs to defeat a North Korean invasion or attack. For America, horizons expand beyond the DMZ.

Is Xi losing control of his military? And could a war be started by the PLA not to achieve a foreign policy objective, but to wage that struggle?

Russia should worry about China and America settling their differences. China will not consider its vassal’s interests, so Russia should have a sense of urgency to settle its differences with America before China pounces. China is Russia’s frenemy—not partner without limits.

Cuba’s energy crisis deepens under American pressure.

Can America prevent Egypt’s persecution of its Christian minority? People forget that the Middle East bordering the Mediterranean was the center of Christianity until the Islamic empire conquered it. So more to the point, I wonder why the Pope doesn’t seem to care.

The U.S. is pushing Taiwan to spend more on defense. I’ve long wanted that.

FFS, this wasn’t a war game. It was a panic game. The United States would absolutely respond militarily if Russia attacked a NATO state.

The U.S. has the Bumblebee suicide drone to knock down attack drones. Counter-measures emerge.

The U.S. smuggled 6,000 Starlink terminals into Iran during this current wave of unrest. Would that support an actual insurrection timed with American-led strikes?

A U.S.-Taiwan trade deal includes Taiwanese investments in semiconductors, AI, and advanced electronics in the U.S. That’s interesting.

China is trying to mediate between Thailand and Cambodia. Also: “three months ago, Thai troops advanced further into Cambodia and seized a compound that had housed several thousand people engaged in scams [run by Chinese gangsters using stages of police stations or banks].”

Diluting China’s dominance: “India is making a multi-billion dollar effort to expand the Indian shipbuilding industry. Currently China builds 70 percent of commercial shipping while India builds only 7 percent.”

Method to Trump’s verbal madness: “Insufficient allied military surveillance and response infrastructure along the coast of east Greenland allows Russia to pose a credible and complex nuclear threat against both the U.S. homeland and the majority of NATO.”

America is preparing for a campaign against Iran lasting weeks. Does this indicate a campaign in support of a local insurrection?

Without a doubt American shipbuilding needs to learn from our allies.

America isn’t abandoning Europe. America is adapting its role to a new era. And it is a new era. But I understand why that change isn’t as relevant or apparent to Europeans when a reduced but still aggressive Russia is on their borders.

One more reason that America isn’t pro-Russian. We’re just trying surface niceness to get Russia to trust that we want their invasion of Ukraine to end more than we want Russia to be destroyed. Me too, honestly, despite my long support for a free Ukraine.

Erdogan has turned Turkey into a “soft” Islamist government. Democracy and the economy have been wrecked. Will Turkey change course?

The Dutch provide the Navy with a LST design.

Somalia. Welp … .

America is not walking away from Europe. America wants to be a partner with strong and confident European friends and allies. Rubio plays the “good cop” to Trump’s “bad cop.”

Putin really is a bastard: “Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in a remote Siberian prison two years ago, was almost certainly poisoned with a deadly toxin found in South American dart frogs, five European governments said Saturday.”

I recently read an author migrating away from Substack say that this platform doesn’t let search engines index articles. That shocked me. But when I look at statistics, hits from Google are rare. So now I will reproduce Substack article introductions on the TDR mothership with a link here for the full Substack article.

The Internet is No Longer What it Was

The January AWS outages caused by one (admittedly big) company's error highlight the reliance America has on the Internet. What happens when it is attacked? Not cyber war--physically attacked in the real world.

The Internet was originally designed to be a resilient means of communication that could survive the massive disruptions caused by nuclear strikes and still find a path to get the message through. It is now a commercial necessity, and the resiliency that was a feature has been supplanted by efficiency requirements. Efficiency is the enemy of resiliency. 

Cyber security is a major part of the online world. At one point I asked if the Internet could be physically attacked:

The experts seem to think the Internet can't be sufficiently attacked physically to knock it down. Yet their confidence seems based on assuming that no attackers could attack enough of the Internet's physical infrastructure to knock it down. Am I missing something (and I certainly could be--I'm a history major with a computer and not a computer major who knows history), or is this logic a bit circular?

But I wasn't really satisfied with that reassurance. After all, even back then there were physical choke points. The need for efficiency is even greater now, and I mentioned undersea cables as one set of growing bottle necks:

At the very least, the ocean-crossing links in the Internet are vulnerable to physical attack. And as the Internet evolves for commercial purposes, I imagine it will be even more vulnerable to attack in more ways. I wonder if those 13 critical computer sites I noted in 2007 are more or less important now?  

So I don't think the problem is only via the undersea cables:

The internet is carried by around 500 fiber-optic undersea cables that are vulnerable to damage from natural disasters and man-made threats. 

These are avenues vulnerable to physical attack. I just don't believe the land portion of the Internet is as secure from physical attacks in the real world as we think it is. I'm sure there are experts losing sleep at night over this.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

NOTE: I made the image with Bing. 

Let's See if the Bold Strategy Pays Off For America

America wants to be the military security of last resort for allies in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. It's fuzzier in regard to China. But no policy change is risk free.

Fingers crossed:

The Trump administration ... approved $15.7 billion of proposed arms sales to Saudi Arabia and Israel, according to the Pentagon.

The last time we sought to arm up local stand-ins to subcontract American power in the Middle East, we counted on the Shah of Iran. We even sold him F-14s, which no other country received. 

Oops.

Israel seems stable now. But it doesn't have the depth of capabilities notwithstanding its advanced and well-trained military. 

And I have questions about the true stability of Saudi Arabia, which thrives on and fears Islamism.

In general, as I've noted many times, I don't count on others to fight in our interests when fighting isn't also in their own interest.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!

Bulgaria Will Join the Black Sea Turkey Shoot

Even Russia's continued possession of Crimea isn't going to help them control the Black Sea when faced with modern NATO forces.

Bulgaria arms up: 

In a bid to bolster the country’s Black Sea coast defense capabilities, the Bulgarian government has approved a project to purchase the Naval Strike Missile coastal defense system for the nation’s military.

Bulgaria will contribute to the Black Sea Turkey Shoot. I was not impressed with Ukraine's anti-ship campaign that relied on NATO intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities to identify targets. 

NATO's much better armaments tied into that ISR network will do much more, much more rapidly, and at a greater range.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo from the article. 

Build an Alliance Corvette

China's fleet challenges a lot of American allies, partners, and friends. Why not mass produce a common corvette with our closest allies to put numbers into the fight in the first island chain?

I like this suggestion:

With the U.S. shipbuilding base in decline, the United States must take bold action to remain a credible maritime power and uphold the rules-based order that has underpinned peace and prosperity in Asia for decades. This order could be strengthened by a trilateral collaboration that unites the United States, Japan, and South Korea in co-developing and mass-producing a new class of fast-attack missile corvettes. From the outset, these vessels would be designed with a clear value proposition for the high-end fight, while also being tailored for maritime domain awareness and maritime security. They would bolster allied naval capacity and serve as an exportable platform to support ASEAN partners on the frontlines of illicit activity, maritime coercion, grey zone warfare, and great power competition.

Endorsed! Corvettes. Sloops. Whatever. 

Do what we can now while rebuilding our shipbuilding industry.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Photo of a Chinese corvette from the article.

Waging War is Fun and Easy

War has escaped into the wild from its government cages. Although I think the purported tidiness of the past is just the mist of time obscuring the constant fluid uncertainty. Kinetic NGOs can wage war just as they wage diplomacy and subversion. The Peace of Westphalia was unavailable for comment.

Oh?

It’s hard to shake the feeling that conflict no longer behaves the way we expect it to. Wars don’t end cleanly, responsibility is always blurred, and decisions with real consequences seem to be made everywhere and nowhere at once.

Clearly waged and cleanly ended wars are a fiction that flows from summarizing wars in books. 

But I digress. Before I even began.

This is what I find interesting:

The observation that states no longer hold an exclusive monopoly over organised force is not new. Analysts, historians and practitioners have been tracking this trajectory for decades. What has changed and what demands attention now is not the existence of non-state coercive power, but the speed, scale and normalisation of its influence. 

We're back to the future. And with the Internet, the ability to materially support war has spread to a wider population of non-state actors. And into the real world. NGOs are already in the logistics game. Imagine what they can do with combat capabilities, too?

We're still in a state-centric system. That's what creating the United Nations codified. But yes, the Westphalian system lost its ability to pretend it means a state monopoly on hard power. Yet this is a constant in military history. 

The mass armies of the twentieth century were a relatively brief interlude of state supremacy when conscription made it cheaper for soldiers rather than mercenaries to do all military jobs.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Lies Back and Thinks of Positional Warfare

The Russians and Ukrainians aren't yet able to teach us lessons about a modern battlefield because they simply accept the positional warfare and seek to cope with that as best as they can. Unless we accept positional warfare is the new normal, can we really learn more than what we get from weapons performance data from the Winter War of 2022?

The war goes on. Talks to end the war go on, made difficult by Russia's insistence that "peace" means "victory"--over Ukraine and NATO. Russia resumed its effort to break Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

This isn't new, but it confirms what I've been observing for a while:

The Russian military command’s focus on light vehicle production and provision further demonstrates ISW’s ongoing assessment that Russian forces have optimized themselves for positional warfare in Ukraine and that Russian advances will likely remain constrained to a foot pace in the near to medium-term.

The Russians aren't innovating to restore maneuver to the stalemated battlefield. The Russians are just trying to cope with the stalemated battlefield to make the best of positional warfare.

This is what I described in an Army article about the Western Front of World War I. The Allies introduced a lot of novel weapons and equipment during the stalemate. But all they really did was cope with a stalemated, defense-dominated front. It took years before Allied tactics dramatically expanded in complexity to include all the new stuff and exploit them--and the traditional weapons--to begin to restore maneuver to the battlefield.

The German army cracked before the Allies could really mature their innovations in equipment and tactics. And so Allied innovations stalled. The Germans picked up the ball and from 1939-1941 demonstrated that they had developed expanded tactics to open up the battlefield far better than the Allies had since 1918.

Mind you, I don't assume that in the short run we would have done better in similar circumstances in Ukraine. We could have entered an era of figurative phalanxes that batter each other into submission as we see Ukraine and Russia trying to do. But if we do face that, innovations will--as the Germans did--break that paradigm of force and operations design. 

Can either side in the Winter War of 2022 make the leap from coping with drone-driven stalemate to incorporating their new weapons, equipment, and procedures in new tactics to make operationally decisive advances? 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. 

NOTE: Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You may read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Weekend Data Dump

I'm duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack. You can read it there if you prefer. Or if you really want to comment online.

Help me out by subscribing on Substack and by liking and sharing posts. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: Be Careful About Diluting Army Attention in Operations Other Than War

In case you missed it on Substack: Could 50mm Cannons Equip American Tanks?

In case you missed it on Substack: So We Have a Modularized Auxiliary Cruiser Gap Now

In case you missed it on Substack: America's Interest in Europe

Oh? “War on Iran Could Provoke a ‘Shiite Jihad’[.]” Somebody, somewhere will always urge inaction in the face of threats by urging America to “let the Wookie win.”

STRAC is back! “The Air Force plans to conduct no-notice inspections of units to test their combat readiness, a senior Air Force official announced last week.”

U.S. forces in South Korea: “A Stryker brigade from Washington state has begun arriving in South Korea to assume the U.S. Army’s latest rotational mission on the peninsula[.]”

Good: “Israeli Iron Fist active protection system’s ability to down incoming drones [was demonstrated.]” It made no sense to me for this not to be possible.

Mowing the jihadi grass is still an American job: “This past week the United States and Kenya broke ground on a major expansion of a key air base in the country used by the U.S. military for counterterrorism operations.”

I’m not sure if Bosnia is safer keeping a separatist-leaning ethnic Serbian component; and Bosnia’s existence rests on separatism. But can the European union sort it out and keep a lid on violence? Let’s recall the 1990s era of American military intervention there.

Is Nigeria stepping up to fight jihadis?

The first Columbia-class SSBN is on track for delivery to the Navy in 2030.

Makes sense that the Navy needs specialized 5.56mm ammo to reduce shipboard damage. But is being boarded a big threat these days?

The State Department is calling together key countries to work together on critical minerals.

The frenemy of my enemy is my friend.

What’s the reason for Xi’s purge of top military officers and what is next for the PLA? I want to know if it is to prepare for war (when near, appear far), protect the CCP monopoly on political power (the core mission of the PLA), or protect Xi himself.

Interesting article on the foundations of actions against Venezuela in the Tripolitan War. In my view non-lawyer view, Congress has options to approve war by action or inaction. But I am on the lookout for more such articles.

This view from Australia sounds right: “US partners must aim for military resilience, strive harder to work with each other, and expect to handle second-order crises without much—or maybe even any—help from Washington.” And for Australia.

Macron is a lame duck. He may hope to fail up—as the EU seemingly encourages.

The scramble for the Arctic. POLARCOM, anyone?

America will focus its Africa strategy to focus on key African countries in key areas for the purpose of pushing back China’s influence in order to secure critical raw materials.

Don’t listen to Iran’s threat. Iran has been waging a regional war for close to five decades. An American attack would just be another of our intermittent participation.

Are cracks really emerging in Iran’s regime?

Breathe, people: “The U.S. and Canada cannot divorce and go their own way.”

Ugh: “Last year the Islamic terrorist Taliban rulers of Afghanistan shut down the Afghan internet. The Taliban took this drastic action to deal with Afghans gaining access to immoral material. Internet shutdowns for political reasons have become more common in nations like India, Iran, Iraq, Senegal, and Syria.”

American SOUTHCOM operations are stretching Russian military resources: “A heavy Russian cargo plane that previously brought air defense systems to Venezuela arrived at a military airfield near Havana, Cuba’s capital[.]”

I was 25 when I enlisted: “New Army recruits are entering the service later in life than previous years, with the average enlistment age at 22.7, according to Army data.”

WTAF!!! If true, serious retaliation against the mullahs is long overdue. Which may be why the allegation has been raised now, of course. But inflicting pain is no less valid—if true.

The new Navy frigate proposal will be a true low-cost frigate rather than the cancelled Constellation which is what I’ve described as a Burke Lite.

Trump’s gunboat diplomacy has overstretched the American military? Fewer than two dozen warships and a small fraction of our planes and Army units are deployed in the Caribbean and CENTCOM. If that overstretches us, it is damning of the size and readiness of the military.

This is more of a sales pitch for a Ukrainian company than a real assessment of the value of cheap drones in modern warfare.

America and India signed a trade deal.

Renaming the South China Sea won’t mean China will think of it as their territory any more than the Gulf of America means we own that. Far more effective at stopping China would be renaming INDOPACOM to PAINCOM.

Defining insurrection: “When a state moves from declining assistance to actively blocking federal officers, detaining them, threatening them, or using state force to prevent the execution of federal processes, it crosses the line from spirited federalism into open defiance.” Tip to Instapundit.

Perhaps: “In short, a total war against Iran would represent a disastrous scenario for the region.” But total war isn’t in the cards. And the very existence of the mullah regime has been a disastrous scenario for the region for many decades.

Anything but more panzers, infantry, and artillery.

American forces no longer dig in to hold South Korea. They can project power to resist China.

Does Vietnam plan for an American invasion? Or is this just a ploy to make it seem like Vietnam isn’t almost totally worried about China? I’m calling BS on this report.

America wisely shot down an Iranian drone that was approaching the American aircraft carrier in the region.

The Arctic has so many ways to kill you are get you killed. POLARCOM, perhaps?

The European defense industry expands.

Foreigners take home lessons learned fighting for Ukraine: “Many of the volunteers for the International Legion were from South America and found their drone knowledge a lucrative career for legal and illegal organizations.”

The Pentagon is looking at small companies for mass production of small suicide UAVs.

AFRICOM sent a team of officers to Nigeria to help kill jihadis.

The Coast Guard and Navy are watching Haiti during its latest crisis, known as Tuesday.

I don’t get why it is news that an Army supply unit would use aircraft to move supplies. Yet ground transport is needed for volume.

If Ukraine’s plan to kill or seriously wound 50,000 Russian troops per month relies on Russians attacking, Russia can adjust how many troops it loses.

Britain’s top naval commander says Russia still prioritizes their Northern Fleet, especially submarines, despite the war. This is something from the “Well, Duh” files. And also, the “Uh Oh” files.

Arguing drones are an evolution and not a revolution.

A Golden Dome won't make the America's defense infrastructure at home secure.

Calm down about a PLA “space carrier”. China has actual weapons to use. FFS, the unbridled enthusiasm for space fantasy is amazing.

Is Cuba close to collapsing?

Securing the Panama Canal by ejecting Chinese influence.

Who is funding a proto-insurgency in American cities?

The Sudanese probably wish the Sainted International Community® cared about them a tenth as much as it cares about Hamas.

A post-ceasefire “steel porcupine” to make Ukraine “indigestable” to a future Russian invasion must not be passive. It must include the ability to counter-attack and restore the line of control.

I can’t imagine Iran agreeing to any nuclear missile program terms that would satisfy America—let alone Israel. I assume Iran is buying time. And so is America before its assets are in place.

I can see how the Arctic is over-valued for sea trade routes and for natural resource extraction. But I part company over minimizing defense needs.

The growing campaign against Russia’s shadow tankers.

Ukraine’s growing campaign against Russia’s defense logistics foundation.

The Pentagon has made deals to ramp up SM-6 and Tomahawk missile production.

The U.S. hit ISIL targets in Syria again.

Marine helicopters will get the ability to conduct long-range strikes at maritime targets. Explain to me again why the Marines gutted their infantry regiments?

America and India have “deepening security ties”.

OPFOR Journal reports: “Russia, Belarus, Iran, Myanmar and North Korea issue a joint statement pledging the creation of a new security regime for Eurasia: ‘Towards a Eurasian Charter of Diversity and Multipolarity in the 21st Century’[.]” Interesting.

Taiwan will deploy ATACMS missiles to islands near China. Embarking the PLA to invade Taiwan now requires a little more Chinese preparation.

Are new night vision technologies too much for our monkey brains in crisis situations?

China will use ICBMs with conventional warheads. That’s an expensive way to bombard something. And is their CEP good enough to destroy targets without nuclear warheads? Still …

I still hold that the loudest voices of division are a minority of the minority active on social media who are unfortunately amplified by reporters too lazy to look beyond their phones and by politicians frightened that the real world resembles the online super-active insane minority.

Targets in Iran are assets (including nuclear related) that can strike American bases and ships; help Iran’s mullahs stay in power; and export oil. The first prioritizes land-based aircraft and subs, so ship-based systems can defend. The choice between the latter two tells us if we think the mullahs will fall.

Iran’s plan to win? Or to bluff and deter America? Iran has been battered the last 2+ years. And waging a regional war against America since the Islamic revolution.

The world is the tough place and this is sadly correct. Syria’s Kurds were in the end game once Assad fell.

Iran claims it seized to ships carrying smuggled fuel.

Why is China building so many coal power plants? To rub the West’s face in our suicidal green stupidity, of course.

The U.S. will export liquified natural gas to Ukraine.

I feel like my pucker factor should be red lining over CCP-linked biolabs in America. Tip to Instapundit.

How can Russia race for more nukes when they are so broke? And all America is trying to do is replace the aging systems we have.

Zelensky says 55,000 Ukrainian troops have died in the war; the BBC says it has confirmed the death of 160,000 by name who have fought for Russia.

I’m worried about Europe. It will get ugly. Will Russia pounce or watch?

Russia’s Arctic ambitions are stymied by sanctions.

American strikes on drug smuggling boats continue.

Putting carriers on offense. Are we spending too much to defend carriers?

The Navy wants NEREUS for “mature and proven below-the-surface capabilities to enable DMO, with a focus on seabed and subsurface warfare mission needs.”

What I find interesting about North Korean troops flying drones and other tasks is that the North Koreans don’t want to be cannon fodder any more.

I’ve long worried about the propaganda problem of a big explosion on a carrier: “Iran’s intense focus on U.S. aircraft carriers is not merely theatrical propaganda but a ‘deliberate strategic fixation’ designed to exploit the platform’s symbolic weight.

The search for the enemy center of gravity is of course valid. But sometimes it can seem like a search for the magical shortcut that bypasses the ugly nature of war.

Overcoming domestic shipbuilding woes in the Coast Guard. But ignore the FREMM part. That Constellation frigate was cancelled at the two under construction.

Don’t fear the end of New START, which only restrained America. Honesty, I assume only a small fraction of Russia’s arsenal works.

Takaichi won the snap election she called in Japan.

The new Marine ACV.

The Peter Principle at an Imperial Level

Is the European Union (EU) on a suicidal foreign policy path? Maybe. But the purpose is to gain domestic powers to erase the prefix of their proto-imperial project. Only the peasants will pay the price. And they'll damn well suffer in silence for holy ever closer union

That is an impressive record:

While the trajectory of EU diplomacy was a train wreck long before Kallas failed upward, few would argue that it hasn’t been a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad 14 months for the Union’s foreign affairs since she assumed her role. Incredibly, the EU now finds itself at loggerheads with essentially every major power in the world, drifting through the global game of geopolitics with no strategy, failing economies, deep resentment at home, and shaky access to crucial energy supplies from abroad.

I don't think this is a disaster from the EU's perspective:

Remember, the EU doesn't care about solving any particular problem. The EU just wants the authority to address the problem, as I noted before Russia invaded Ukraine (again). Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Empire[.]

That pictured EU troika dreams of a foreign policy success like the Soviet Russia achievement in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. The power to negotiate is more important to the EU than the provisions of any deal. That's the strategy. Who in Brussels cares how it affects the peasantry?

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: Image from the essay. 

Desperately Seeking a Short War Over Taiwan

America counts on a short war if China invades Taiwan. So does China. We should be careful what we wish for. 

America and China, for their own reasons, want a short but victorious war over Taiwan*:

Considering these factors, planning for a short, sharp war provides a baseline that reflects current political considerations and what both parties would likely attempt to achieve. However, an exclusive focus on such a scenario risks overlooking how quickly a conflict can expand, protract, or shift. 

Yes, enemies vote and sh*t happens. Which makes getting a short war the hard part. 

China can throw an army across the Taiwan Strait. And I worry that China could exploit the mutual need for a short war to get a victory that America won't even recognize, as I warned about in Military Review.

*And wow! The article had a picture of old Army M60A2 tanks with 155mm ATGM-firing guns! Don't know why. But neat.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here. 

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!  

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.