The Last Hamas War Eases Into Counter-Invasion

Israel is still waging war more than three weeks after the Hamas mass terror invasion without a clear idea of what a ground war will look like. How much leeway and time does Israel think it has to destroy Hamas?

I find it revolting that the Palestinian fanboys who proudly proclaim "they love death" when Hamas slaughtered, raped, and kidnapped Jews in the October 7th terror invasion suddenly moan and shed tears begging for a ceasefire when the Israelis resolve to do some serious killing of terrorists.

Gaza terrorists continue to fire rockets at Israeli civilian targets as Israel tests the waters with expanded raids and bridgeheads inside Gaza for a ground war. The scope of the ground missions is expanding:

The Israel Defense Forces pushed further into the northern Gaza Strip overnight and on Monday, engaging in a series of battles with Hamas terrorists and killing dozens of them, the military said.

By midmorning, Palestinian witnesses said Israeli tanks were on the outskirts of Gaza City and had blocked a key road linking northern Gaza to the south.

The mental gymnastics of Hamas is astounding:

Hamas also said it was engaged in “heavy fighting… with the invading occupation force” in northern Gaza.

An "occupation" force needs to invade? As I wise man once observed, I don't think that word means what they think it means.

That blockage of a key road seems like a tank raid. For now.

Let's keep in mind the rules of war on proportionality. Also, remember the practical issue of the potential for the false compassion of restraining military operations to spare civilians needless deaths in lawful military operations.

This discussion of urban warfare--called "sieges" for the purpose of the author's work--includes a summary of the rules of war on protecting civilians near the end. The author tentatively concludes:

Israel will make mistakes and unintentionally hurt innocent civilians. That is certainly one of the most unfortunate aspects of armed conflict. Nevertheless, Israel and the Israel Defense Forces appear to be judiciously applying combat power against military targets, while adhering to the tenets of international humanitarian law.

He rightly observes that civilian casualties are inevitable despite the rules of war. Which is why I consider one of the main benefits of fighting under the rules of war to be the protection of your own soldiers fighting and killing in an inherently violent endeavor (mind you, I was a reservist Signal Corps soldier and was never deployed let alone saw combat). Fighting by the rules allows them a better chance of coming home as soldiers who did their duty and not as killing machines. That is possible because they did what is expected to avoid civilian casualties while carrying out lawful military missions in defense of their country.

Israel can't avoid the urban fight in this war as I advocated for the U.S. Army as a general rule, in Army magazine recently. So Israel will have to fight in conditions where its enemies will have certain advantages that nullify Israel's technology and training to a great extent as I highlighted as a lesson of Iraq's invasion of Iran in 1980 (in this 1997 ILW paper):

The demonstration that troops apparently hopelessly outclassed can make a good showing - even if they have to do nothing more complicated than die in place in their bunkers - is useful. Iran's ill-coordinated light infantry forces were stubborn obstacles to Iraq's ambitions when deployed in the cities of Khuzestan. Fighting a determined foe block by block and house by house as the Iraqis did in Khorramshahr would force our Army to play by our enemy's rules. Although it is possible that information dominance could extend our superiority in open warfare to urban areas, that breakthrough has not happened. We must not forget that urban conditions may limit our technological and training advantages, lest we experience our own Khorramshahr debacle one day.

Israel will face that challenge. Hopefully it won't endure casualties to the extent that it can be called a debacle.

And also, tick tock:

Iraq's Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on the Iraqi government and lawmakers on Friday to close the U.S. embassy in Baghdad in response to Washington's "unfettered support" for Israel.

I have never wavered from my belief that Sadr is a threat to Iraq and America. Bad things can happen--around Israel and in the wider world--the longer it takes Israel to complete its large-scale combat operations inside Gaza. Israel may think nothing is more important than taking the time to crush Hamas properly. But I guarantee America and other powers think otherwise.

But face it, it is insane to suggest that Israel is required to sustain the enemy during a war. The dilemma is that Hamas will take humanitarian aid intended for civilians. How international law addresses the legality of denying terrorists supplies and the requirement not to destroy the means of life others provide for civilians is unclear.

Israel gets clear responsibility when it holds the terrain the people are in. Until then, Hamas is welcome to surrender any moment the hardships of the civilians they claim to fight for bother the Hamas leadership in their Qatar luxury hotels and houses in the West.

Here is more, with background on the Israeli war with Palestinians, with an aside on the Islamic Civil War.

Exit question: If Israel's refusal to supply its enemy with humanitarian supplies is "collective punishment," what do you call OPEC's oil embargo on countries that had supported Israel in the 1973 war? Asking for a friend. 

That said, Israel will get zero credit for relenting under what I assume is American pressure:

Israel originally imposed a total blockade on food, water, medicine, and fuel deliveries into Gaza, but later allowed humanitarian aid convoys — not including fuel — to bring supplies in from Egypt, and has resumed some of its water supply. In peacetime, Israel provides some nine percent of the coastal enclave’s water supply.

That "peacetime" practice also negates that whole pre-October 7 propaganda that Israel had Gaza under "siege", eh?

UPDATE: The history of Palestinians rejecting a homeland without first exterminating Jews from the river to the sea. 

UPDATE: Remember the curious incident of the Arab street that did not rage in the night.

UPDATE: Dumb and Dumber.

UPDATE: An ISW update on the war.

UPDATE: I assume at least some of the corvettes have missile defense capabilities despite their small size: "Israel deployed warships to the Red Sea on Wednesday after Yemen’s Houthis declared war and launched a ballistic missile at an Israeli city."

UPDATE: And now for something completely different:

UPDATE: The issue of proportionality is tough to define when enemies hide behind civilians. 

If Israel calculates it will kill 100 civilians used as human shields in the process of killing a major commander behind the October 7th terror invasion, I'd guess that's perfectly consistent. But a thousand? That gets tough. Especially if there were circumstances beyond the control or knowledge of the Israelis (like substandard construction or stored weapons). 

If Israel figures it will kill 100 civilians to kill a Hamas clerk-typist, I'd say it is probably not justified. But 10? Maybe? Probably? But it may depend on whether the amount of force used was necessary--that is, proportional--to kill that target rather than the outcome. 

I imagine you have the complicating factor of whether Hamas hid behind the civilians. Which is absolutely a war crime. Or whether the cause of sub-standard construction that caused casualties beyond what was expected because Hamas took the needed building materials. Or put the weapons where the civilians are, causing secondary explosions. Again, a war crime. All those would increase the casualties. But I'm reasonably sure that if Hamas takes actions that put civilians in danger, that it isn't an Israeli license to kill. Using force proportional to the need to achieve the objective still rules their actions.

I'm not sure how Israel's right to conduct military operations notwithstanding expected civilian casualties interacts with Hamas' responsibility not to put civilians in the line of fire. That's the kind of Israeli calculation that has to take place in real time. That's why we used lawyers in the war on terror. I have no idea if we'd have the time for that extra level of review during large-scale conventional warfare.

Mind you, I'm not a lawyer--either civilian or military. I'm just trying to think through the complications in the real world when one side wants to obey the rules of war and the other does not. 

UPDATE: Just a thought, but couldn't Israel's government get away with anything it does to destroy Hamas by blaming the attacks on its "militant wing" (the IDF)? I mean, Hamas gets that kind of a pass every day. 

UPDATE: Israel is driving into Gaza from the northeast while moving to isolate the evacuation area from the rest of Gaza in the southwest:

UPDATE: From a DOD briefing:

And oh by the way you know, the Laws of War that do highlight that if a nonmilitary facility is now employed by military forces it does become a legitimate target.  And so again you know, there will be constant discussions.

It is clear that a civilian target becomes a military target if used as a military facility. That was clear. But I still think Israel has to judge whether anticipated civilian deaths and damage to civilian infrastructure is worth the military objective sought with a particular attack. I can't imagine that enemy war crime of hiding behind civilians creates a free-fire zone. 

UPDATE: The reason for the pro-Hamas contradictions become clear when you understand that the Hamas supporters want Israel to sit and take it while their jihadi enemies get better and better at killing Israelis.

UPDATE: Hezbollah's leader made his anticipated speech on the Hamas decision to wage war on Israel. Executive Summary: You Hamas guys are great. Your success is pretty impressive considering we had nothing at all to do with it. Good luck with your war. I wasn't prepared to predict whether Hezbollah would jump in. But I did say they'd been bloodied fighting Israel and more recently keeping Syria's Assad in power. So I didn't assume they'd jump in.

UPDATE: I'm reading and hearing more good information on the rules of war lately. This is a new phenomenon since I've been blogging. This article makes clear something I assumed was true:

It is a war crime to use civilians’ presence to shield a particular military target from attack. Israel has claimed that Hamas operates from within hospitals and other civilian buildings as a way to protect itself. Hamas denies doing so.

But whether Hamas does or doesn’t use civilians as human shields, Israel’s legal responsibility to protect those civilians remains the same: It cannot disproportionately harm them, or target them directly.

Just because one side commits a war crime by using human shields doesn't mean the other side can't commit a war crime by killing "too many" civilians in the process of attacking a lawful target. Both sides can be guilty in a single incident.

I'm not convinced that the interpretation of "collective punishment" is accurate given it is perfectly legal to cut off the supplies of enemy combatants--Hamas and their fellow terrorists. That conflicts with provisions to not cut off supplies to civilians. But given the parasitic nature of Hamas and the civilians around it, how do those contradictory rules interact? 

And how does the refusal of Hamas to allow evacuations and the refusal of Egypt to let Gaza refugees enter Egypt affect what Israel can and can't do in the combat zone?

These contradictory aspects might not collide in a large country but are unavoidable in dense and small Gaza. Is that really supposed to create a legal advantage for Hamas to attack Israel and then hide behind the civilian shield?

UPDATE: Well, on the surface: "Israel Defense Forces Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Israeli troops have encircled Gaza City." What about the tunnels? Or maybe those are cut off, too.

UPDATE: Is Israel going to slow operations under American pressure for humanitarian purposes? Or could the isolation of Gaza City mean that a slower pace was part of the plan all along?

UPDATE:  A ceasefire is the wrong way to end the bloodshed:

In reality, there is an extraordinarily simple way to expedite the end of all hostilities in Gaza: Hamas releases all hostages taken on Oct. 7 and unconditionally surrenders to Israel, just as Germany and Japan unconditionally surrendered to the Allied Powers to end World War II. If Hamas did that, the war would end tomorrow. There would be no further casualties. The conversation would instead shift to what the Gaza Strip will look like once freed from Hamas' jackboot.

This is what I've been saying. I guess it depends on whether you want to end the current suffering or you want to save Hamas to inflict more gruesome deaths on Israelis.

UPDATE: An ISW update on the war.

UPDATE: A battle for urbanized Gaza will be bloody. Will Israel's "sponge bomb" allow Israel to largely nullify the Hamas tunnels? And while I've wondered if Israel will only fully clear northeastern Gaza, Israel seems determined to do what it takes to clear all Gaza:

When Israel is ready to conquer Gaza’s southern half, they will order civilians there to move to tent cities in adjacent areas of southern Israel. An Israeli general announced this several weeks ago. Hamas is unlikely to allow this, which will be tough for the civilians but some will probably survive and be cared for by Israeli medics and civil affairs personnel. The US did the same concerning stay-behind German civilians in the 1945 Battle of Aachen, and stay-behind Sunni Arab civilians in the 2004 second battle of Fallujah. 

Interesting. I hadn't heard that announcement.

UPDATE: What does Israel do with this position?

The Israel Defense Forces have declared that they have Gaza City — historically the largest population center in the Gaza Strip — surrounded. With Israeli forces on three sides inside or outside the northern Gaza Strip and the Mediterranean Sea on the other, they basically have placed a state of siege over the war-torn city. As a result, Hamas and any other militants there are cut off from surface resupply and a situation where any tunnels connecting to areas outside the cordon can be identified and destroyed is set in place.

And will Hamas attack to break the isolation? Is that what Israel wants? Dig in and kill off attacking terrorists?

Also, as Enterprise transits the Red Sea to head to the Arabian Sea, I sure hope American destroyers and cruisers are standing by with anti-missile defenses up and running. And it would be nice if the Saudis were ready to bomb Houthi missile launchers in Yemen.

UPDATE: I think I've been going down a rabbit hole on thinking about what a proportional attack against an enemy target surrounded by human shields would be. Getting back to basics allows Israel to destroy those lawful targets despite higher civilian casualties caused by the presence of human shields. 

Recall the training I received as a new soldier to only use the force needed to achieve the military objective without needlessly causing damage or casualties to civilians. If Israel uses a small bomb that takes out the military target rather than using a larger bomb, even high civilian casualties become lawful, no?

You still have the issue of whether the lawful target is an enemy commander or a clerk-typist to justify the civilian casualties. But even that might not apply when you consider the clerk-typist may be transmitting orders that kill your soldiers or collect human shields.

Still, Israel should get the benefit of the doubt that it tries to minimize enemy civilian casualties in contrast to Hamas and its fellow jihadis who focus on maximizing civilian casualties--both their enemy's and their own people's.

UPDATE: Raising human shields to an art under Gaza City's largest hospital:

As Israel’s invasion of Gaza looms, the Israel Defense Forces has outlined the need to destroy Hamas’ 300-mile-long tunnel network, which allegedly runs beneath several medical facilities including Al Shifa and connects to the terrorists’ key command center there.

IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari named Al Shifa as the base of several underground hubs collectively used by Hamas’ leadership.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

The Winter War of 2022 Seeks a False Model for Peace

Is the Winter War of 2022 all over but for how the peace is made? Maybe. But can we just skip to the part where Russia wants to be a prosperous member of the West?

The war grinds on with Russian offensive activity generally ticking up while Ukraine's is apparently lower. I don't know if this means Russia is clawing back the initiative or if Ukraine is repositioning reserves for something new.

Obviously, people in the West are looking for an exit. Can being generous to Russia despite their brutal war on Ukraine convince Russia to join the West?

Let's not get ahead of ourselves:

The Americans understood after the treatment of Germany following World War I that trying to crush a nation could cost the United States and the world a great deal, whereas rehabilitating the defeated helped to avoid wars of revenge while enhancing the global economic system. It also opened the door to military and political alliances. West Germany joined NATO, and Japan became a long-term American ally.

I have tried to show that the war has ended – in the sense that no one is in a position to achieve their goal – but that a peace settlement that sustains itself is extremely difficult. If the United States follows the World War II model in which, rather than demanding surrender, which is not possible for Moscow, it focuses on a relationship based on rebuilding rather than destroying Russia, it might withdraw from a war that is over, while the Russians might pursue their economic interest: developing an economy that places them in the top rank of nations.

I think people get confused about this issue, pretending that the post-World War II policy toward Germany was generous while the post-World War I policy was punitive. I think it is almost backwards. We went easy on Germany after 1918 and that let them eventually pretend Germany was not defeated, building up new grievances to reverse.

On the other hand, we could be generous with rebuilding Germany and Japan after World War II because we crushed them in war. Absolutely smashed their military power, pummeled their homelands, and physically occupied them to purge their societies:

You know, the common wisdom is that the Treaty of Versailles was too harsh on Imperial Germany after World War I, which led to the rise of Hitler. When you compare the occupation, dismemberment, and de-Nazification of Germany after 1945 which created a prosperous and democratic allied Germany, you have to conclude that the Allies weren't nearly harsh enough in 1918.

And since 1991, we've treated the Russians with kid gloves, and now they too think they've been betrayed and deny they were really defeated in the Cold War. Now the Russians pretend they were being reasonable and just voluntarily gave up their empire. Of course, occupying Russia and de-Commiefying Moscow was never going to happen. We didn't have much choice at the time since Russia still had lots of working nukes. But the result has been a Russia that increasingly acts like they want to be our enemy.

And after we crushed our enemies in World War II we rebuilt them--and the rest--in our image:

It is easy to forget--and this was a useful reminder to me--that Europe with its autocracies and monarchies was not fully part of a free West (although obviously part of the Western tradition) until we rebuilt Western Europe in that template after World War II. And NATO expansion after defeating the Soviet Union was more explicit in demanding democracy and rule of law for new members.

Unless Russia is crushed in Ukraine, there will be no chance of a door opening for military and political alliances with the West. It will just be a period for Russia to reload and nurse grievances with a new "stabbed in the back" theory for their failure to win. Just like what happened after the West defeated the USSR in the Cold War.

Let's take Vienna. That's the only path to rehabilitating Russia and getting them into the West.

I really respect the author of the original piece in question. But I honestly don't get how he draws his conclusion about a viable peace settlement in Ukraine.

UPDATE (Monday): Hmmm. Ukraine struck Russian air defenses in western Crimea. And there are reports of spotting in the south Ukrainian aircraft capable of carrying Storm Shadow cruise missiles to exploit sudden gaps in Russian air defenses in the region. The Ukrainian effort to push Russia back from the Kherson front seems purposeful.

UPDATE (Tuesday): Russians don't want "peace"--they want conquest: 

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Monday that Moscow is ready for talks on the "post-conflict settlement" of the war in Ukraine.

Russia is either desperate to cash in their chips because their ground forces are barely holding together; or Russia is trying to end Western support for Ukraine's fight by portraying Ukraine as the party uninterested in "peace". 

We should insist that Russia only talk directly to Ukraine. Don't let Russia score a propaganda victory by letting them pretend NATO is who Russia is at war with and that Ukraine is nothing but a Western tool with no legitimacy. 

Note that Russia's demand for "peace" includes the land Russia doesn't hold in the four Ukrainian provinces it illegally annexed last year.

UPDATE (Sunday): Few details: "The Russian military said a Ukrainian missile strike on a shipyard in annexed Crimea had damaged a Russian ship." 

UPDATE (Sunday): I'd be shocked if that hadn't happened given it was used in World War I and American Civil War trench warfare:

Russian sources continued to claim that Russian forces were digging tunnels to destroy Ukrainian positions and launch surprise attacks in the Avdiivka direction. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces dug a tunnel to a Ukrainian position and mined it, destroying the Ukrainian position.

Also:

Ukrainian forces are reportedly counterattacking against Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction as of November 4. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked against Russian advances near the railway north of Avdiivka.

That's good. But I'd like to see a counter-attack that isn't small scale and instead cuts off the Russian pincers trying to close around the city.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here.

NOTE: I'm still adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.  

Weekend Data Dump

China and Russia are a problem. Excuse me? "The United States prevailed in the Cold War thanks to a consistent strategy pursued by both political parties through nine successive presidencies. It needs a similar bipartisan approach today. Therein lies the rub." I am sure Gates has a better memory than I have of the era. Yet I remember the 1970s and 1980s as having very weak bipartisan support for the Cold War. Democrats apologized for the Soviets. See Senator Bernie Sanders for one of those monsters preserved in amber in our government today.

I've said many time that the liberals of my younger days are gone. At least in defining the Democratic Party. Once, liberals were stalwart supporters of freedom of speech and individual civil rights. They supported blue collar families. I admired that, even as I disagreed with almost all of their policies. Now "progressives" are in charge of Democrats. And for those not paying attention, the outpouring of enthusiastic support from progressives for the Hamas slaughter, rape, and kidnapping of Jews on October 7th may finally demonstrate what the Democratic Party has become--enablers of cheerleaders of genocide. Let's re-think who is "deplorable" in the American political spectrum, eh?

And now for something completely different:
You think you hate and distrust the media enough. You don't.

Biden administration efforts to delay Israeli military operations. Democrats don't like Israel these days. So falling for the Hamas ploy is predictable: "The Biden administration is frantically trying to stall Israel’s invasion of Gaza in hopes of furthering negotiations over the more than 200 hostages still held by Hamas, a report said Sunday." Hamas would happily release one per week. I'm being generous saying Biden is "falling for" the ploy. I think Biden would call that outcome a success of Smart Diplomacy.® 

Good: "The U.S. Air Force is moving ahead with its plan to build homeland-defense radars that can detect a new generation of Russian cruise missiles—including a search for sites whose total area could cover nearly half of Manhattan." North America is no longer a sanctuary.

As we deploy forces around Israel, remember that we are a large part of the Multinational Force and Observers along the Egypt-Israel border. You never can tell when the MFO will be a target of the jihadis.

Hmmm: "A call by Ethiopia’s prime minister for his country to regain access to the Red Sea after a 30-year hiatus has sparked fears that the issue could destabilize the Horn of Africa." Eritrea's exit from Ethiopia after a long war ended Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea.

Is Australia strong enough to embrace China economically without China demanding Australian subservience? A strong alliance with America is a big help, of course. But Chinese imperial attitudes are hard to kill.

As the difficulties of urban warfare are contemplated, remember that rubble is good for defenders for both cover and obstacles to enemy vehicle movement. As I've noted, a decision to fight for a city is a decision to destroy it. That's not original. But it is true. The decision is one Hamas and Israel make jointly.

More on the Carney air defense engagement over 9 hours. It has from the start seemed odd that we would be Israel's first line of defense for this. Maybe we are to free up Israeli air defense assets for the Gaza and Hezbollah threats. But is it out of line to wonder if the Houthis--on Iran's order--attacked our destroyer and we don't want to admit it to avoid the need to escalate now? It would not be the first time an American destroyer was attacked by the Houthi. And don't forget the Cole incident.

It's fair to wonder if Iran infiltrated the White House and compromised Biden if their agents are doing exactly what the Biden administration wants.

I'm assuming that as many of our four SSGNs that we can make available are on station somewhere from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea, or heading that way.

Russia wants to conquer Ukraine. But how Russia wants to do it is unclear--even to the Russians.

It's so cute that Russians think they'll be asked: "It would be out of character for Russians to accept being the junior partner to a country that has failed to provide military support. But then again, not much noise was made when China included Bolshoi Ussuriysky Island, currently Russian territory, on its new world map." I mentioned that new "official map" revision two weeks ago. It was clever of China to make the point when Russia is fully engaged in the west. There is more to come, I assume.

If the employees don't like working for a hate group, they should quit. Tip to Instapundit.

Throwing an elbow: "The United States on Monday renewed a warning that it will defend the Philippines against any armed attacks after the island nation accused Chinese coastguard ships of 'intentionally' hitting its vessels in the South China Sea over the weekend." 

Maybe I don't know enough, but I think Strategypage is over-estimating the effects of the GMLRS on Russia's rail lines north of the Sea of Azov: "The four-month-old Ukrainian offensive in southern Ukraine recently achieved a major objective. Ukrainian forces advanced to within GMLRS missile range of the only Russian rail line that carried supplies to occupied Crimea. Ukraine had already disabled the other rail supply route to Crimea, which used the Kerch Strait bridge." Ukraine don't have that many systems (mostly HIMARS) to launch the rockets. And Russia can repair rail lines. It's not like Russia needs the lines open 24/7. Get back to me if Ukraine drops the Kerch Strait bridge. And when Ukrainian guns are within range of the rail lines.

Huh. The University of Michigan wasn't the school in our state with the worst story of last week. Thank you, MSU.

Sort of preaching to the TDR choir. I'd much rather support Iranians who want to destroy the mullah regime than wage war on the mullah regime to destroy their nuclear weapons potential. The latter could only buy time. But we'd at least have more time to achieve the former.

Hamas released a new ration of two hostages that it hopes will hold off Israeli attacks as fools call it a sign of "good will" by murderous and vile terrorists.

Have we passed Peak Stupid? Glamour magazine women of the year winners are all actual women. Tip to Instapundit. 

North Korea is crazy if they think any nuclear-armed submarine they put to sea will survive for long: "The U.S. and the Republic of Korea’s navies completed a combined theater anti-submarine warfare exercise this month aimed at improving submarine tracking and engagement, amid heightened nuclear threats from North Korea."

Rehearsing for the big one: "Western militaries respond by moving troops across Germany to Poland and the Baltic states in the hopes of deterrence, but in preparation for defense." As long as it isn't a new version of a 21st century Dyle Plan.

Finally: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has submitted a protocol for Sweden’s admission into NATO to Turkey’s parliament for ratification[.]" I assume Erdogan is confident he will get new F-16s. Fingers crossed Hungary won't continue to be ... problematic.

They have a point: "Britain should either increase it’s military presence in the Indo-Pacific or curb its ambitions in the region, according to the parliamentary Defence Committee." Before Russia brought war to Europe, Britain's Indo-Pacific plans made sense. And for trade it still does. But now Britain has to think closer to home for military deployments. I'd rather have Europeans in Asia just for tripwire purposes.

Huh: " For the past year, a Marine reconnaissance platoon has been testing an all-electric motorcycle that will help bolster its role as the eyes and ears of a Marine ground combat force in the expected future fight." I can't help but think that lightening up the recon is a mistake. Heck, even the Israelis went down that recon dead end. Maybe drones change everything. Well, until counter-measures are fielded.

China continues to blockade the Philippines outpost on Second Thomas Shoal. The U.S. reminded China of our defense pact with the Philippines. Before we start shooting at the Chinese, maybe try Berlin Airlift (East), eh?

Jewish people could ignore the red-green alliance that uses hatred of Jews to paper over other issues (coughLGBTQUERTYcough) that divide them. October 7th and the reaction of the left which celebrated the Hamas mass murder, rape, and kidnappings of Israelis erased the ability to pretend. For many Jews, not all, of course. There will always be "goodlife" willing to stick with the left and its Islamo-Fascist buddies no matter what. It was a great mistake to believe Nazis--national socialists--were creatures of the right rather than of the left. One more thing to blame on our media. And while "conservatives" in past centuries have been a home of anti-Jewish actions, today's conservatives in America are not the monarchists of Europe but  more often the "classical liberals" of economic and personal freedom. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia is replacing the Wagner assault units with other convict-based assault "Storm Z" units to throw at the Ukrainians to inflict losses on them at the price of Russian garbage people that Moscow would prefer to see dead, anyway. I suspect these new units won't have the esprit de corps that Wagner gave them to disguise their disposable nature.

Russia passed a potential artillery ammunition crisis as its production and some North Korean imports fill the gaps. Russian artillery fire will be about 12-20% of first-year usage, but high enough to fight in 2024. Ukraine relies on the West to sustain its artillery fire. No word on how Russian artillery barrels--which wear out--will hold out. I assume that Ukraine's continued attacks on Russian logistics will continue to cause localized shortages. But the Russian shells will get through on a static front line.

A reminder that you might want to read my post on "proportionality" and the rules of war. The laws of war video I embedded in an update at the end is great. It reassured me that my memories of what I thought I knew were accurate. 

Speaking of goodlife. I noted back in 2005 that many Westerners are honored to be the victims of the jihadis. As I concluded: "Our multi-cultis are capable of excusing any offense by our enemies and magnifying any flaw on our side to excuse beheadings and honor killings and whatever else our jihadi enemies decide we deserve. When some on our side decide to be nonjudgmental, the sky's the limit for our enemies." [LATER: The goodlife was mercifully the usual suspects in the media rather than the woman hostage who was wrongly portrayed.]

Why are we accepting Iranian attacks on our forces in Syria and Iraq? Unless we are ramping up right now, Blinken's "blood and guts" warning to Iran sounds hollow. To be fair, I assume we are waiting to restore our air defense assets Biden withdrew from the region a couple years ago in order to defend against Iranian ballistic missiles it fired at our bases in Iraq after we killed Iranian terror master Soleimani. [THURSDAY: News reports that Air Force planes struck Iranian proxies in eastern Syria that have been bombarding our outposts. It seems limited. And apparently our air defense are in place.]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say Macron's purpose is to dilute the resolve Israel has and constrain its actions: "The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has proposed widening the international coalition against Islamic State to fight the Palestinian militant group Hamas as he made a visit to Israel."

The U.S. will send its two Iron Dome batteries back to Israel. We say we really aren't planning to integrate these with our forces anyway. Perhaps they were just to see how a future American-designed system could fit in.

Oh FFS: "The White House scrapped plans to have the new wave band the B-52s perform at Wednesday’s state dinner for Australia’s prime minister after deciding that it would be inappropriate at a time when 'so many are facing sorrow and pain,' in the words of first lady Jill Biden." Ah, the words of Doctor Biden. So much for passing Peak Stupid. Unleash the James Taylor!

Of course: "The U.S. Air Force is planning to position aircraft at a military base near Athens in connection with the American response to events in Israel, Greek media reported this week." It's not like Hamas fanboy Erdogan would let us use our Incirlik air base, eh?

Netanyahu was warned about the October 7th Hamas attacks? This is a hit piece. Notwithstanding the headline's implication, that's not what is claimed. This is a partisan attack published by a partisan outfit blaming Israel's "distraction" on internal divisions caused by Netanyahu's attempt to reform an overly powerful judiciary. The left's excessive reaction was what caused distractions--if they were to blame for the failure to see this coming terror attack. And note that the author founded "an Arab-Israeli peace organization" and interviewed a left-wing Israeli politician who is on that organization's advisory board as the source of the accusation! And it includes only a partial transcript. Regardless of politics, the Israeli military on guard along the Gaza border the morning of October 7, 2003 had no excuse for thinking their front was as quiet as the Ardennes front on the morning in December 16, 1944. Tip to Instapundit. 

Huh: "Senators and policy experts say Hamas’s attacks against Israeli citizens and the bombardment of Gaza by Israeli forces have inflamed tensions and will put pressure on Biden to take a harder line against Iran, scuttling any hope of reviving elements of the Iran nuclear deal in the foreseeable future." It is very odd that Iran wasn't willing to patiently wait for Biden to surrender the region to Iran.

The threat of Greenland's ice sheet melting is overblown. Also, if it happened it would take 10,000 years. So ...

From the "Well, Duh" files: "The removal of China’s foreign and defense ministers appears to enforce leader ’s demand for total obedience and the elimination of any potential rivals within the ruling Communist Party, analysts say." Yeah. But be careful what you wish for.

China's rulers have no idea what their economic statistics really are. Yeah, the bifurcated system of fake public statistics to fool the people and foreigners and a covert means of getting the truth to the top has broken. I mean, how can Chinese genetic long-range planning talent work without knowing the truth now?

At China's Belt and Road forum: "Putin’s words, coupled with the lack of any meaningful results of the meeting (bar a contract on food and agricultural products which has yet to be confirmed by Beijing), illustrate the extent to which Russia’s war against Ukraine has deepened the asymmetry between the two powers." Well, sure.

If you define "victory" for Israel in its war against Hamas as making the Palestinians love Israel, sure, the war will fail. And yes, my statement is hyperbolic. We all know that. So don't get your panties in a twist. But we saw how crushing Germany and Japan in 1945 undid their hate that "emerged from, a much larger, decades-long conflict that has brought much suffering—to both sides[.]" So maybe after 50 years something good can be built on the foundation of the destruction of Hamas. For some reason there is a class of people in the West who hold the bar of victory high for the West but very low for its enemies. So if some fraction of Hamas survives the war, be prepared for proclamations of Hamas "victory."

Government censorship by proxy. The media is sadly the government's willing collaborator when Democrats are in the White House. Otherwise they're just the Democrats' willing collaborator. This would be called a Constitutional crisis if Republicans did it. You know it would. Tip to Instapundit.

In his mind, Obama made love to the mullah regime in Iran every day. I know you come here for perspective.

Unless the clock has ticked too long for Israel to be thorough without a political backlash from the Biden administration, I'd agree that: "the war triggered by Hamas’ barbaric attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7 will be the first zero-sum conflict in the Arab-Israeli arena since 1948." Because if America isn't resolute and open in backing Israel's destruction of Hamas, no Arab state that doesn't like Iran or its proxies will prevent their people drunk on Jewish blood lust from demanding their governments act against Israel--and America.

Clearly, left-wing administrators and not left-wing students are the real product: "Harvard University employs about 1,352 full-time administrators for every 1,000 undergraduate students enrolled at the university, an analysis conducted by The College Fix found." Tip to Instapundit. It would be cheaper to give each student a personal butler.

Powered Joint Direct Attack Munition: Turning a bomb into a cheap loitering cruise missile. I have a nagging feeling this is turning a cheap field expedient drone weapon into an expensive weapon.

SDBs for Israel.

Oregon says minority students can't possibly be expected to learn how to read, write, and do math--so won't require those skills to graduate. That will work out just swell, I'm sure. If there are any old timey KKK people still out there, they must be kicking themselves for not labeling their identical views about minorities as "progressive." Let's note right now that Oregon was established as a whites-only sanctuary. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree, I guess. Tip to Instapundit.

This author says Eisenhower is staying in the Mediterranean while Ford is heading to CENTCOM. That's the reverse of what was ordered for those carriers. If true, it makes sense considering I said in this data dump that Eisenhower being dispatched to the region from North America might have specialized equipment and personnel for missions around Israel. It might look too obvious to prying eyes to transfer equipment to Ford.

Some leftists say Hamas is kinder and gentler because its covenant was amended to simply speak of getting rid of Israel: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it" See? No slaughter of Jews is even mentioned. Just the formal state of Israel should go! It's just a paperwork issue, really. Hamas sure did display on October 7th how it sees its role in obliterating the state of Israel without slaughtering Jews. Hey, what other countries are on the list to be obliterated, considering Hamas says Israel is just the most recent in a long line of victims? Just asking for a friend.

Counting on some hidden Putin illness to kill him and save Ukraine is some low-odds madness, if you ask me. Don't assume a replacement would be better. Although Putin or his replacement could always decide retreat is a better route to survival than continued war.

How Russia has mostly used its old T-62s: "the tanks function as do-it-yourself howitzers by super-elevating their guns and blasting away, inaccurately, at Ukrainian positions."

I compared Israel's laxity along the Gaza border to our 1944 Ardennes front failure in an earlier entry here. But like that battle, individual Israelis used initiative to fight and prevent the Hamas atrocities from being much worse. 

Wow: "Russia has freed up to 100,000 prison inmates and sent them to fight in Ukraine, according to government statistics and rights advocates — a far greater number than was previously known." The prison population has gone from 460,000 when the war started to 266,000 now. How soon before Russia conducts mass arrests to cycle through the prison system?

The U.S. is working to help Ukraine rebuild its defense industrial base. 

Well, yes: "Depleted weapons stockpiles and a dangerous security outlook mean NATO countries need to ramp up arms production for the long haul, the alliance’s top official said Wednesday." The Russian military hasn't looked that good. But it could have kept shooting long after the Europeans ran out of ammo.

Maybe: "Chinese President Xi Jinping’s removal of four ministers and demotion of former foreign minister Qin Gang makes Xi look powerful, but actually is a symptom of weaknesses in his leadership, analysts say." Or maybe it's a symptom of his ability to crush political enemies with no consequences.

Good: "The U.S. Air Force has activated two detachments at Robins Air Force Base in Georgia dedicated to electronic warfare and its future applications."

I've long wondered if Israel can tap the desire of Lebanese to break Hezbollah's state-within-a-state hold on Lebanon: "As a result, Hezbollah cemented its power-grab on Lebanon and is dragging it into the current Israeli-Hamas war, against the wishes of the majority of the Lebanese people." I've considered it counter-productive for Israel to threaten to punish Lebanon for "hosting" Hezbollah. I don't think Lebanon is strong enough to fight Hezbollah without powerful friends. Things can always get worse there.

Israel has fronts backed by Iran in Gaza, Lebanon, and the West Bank. Don't forget the Syria front Iran is trying to establish. And behind that lies Iran with nuclear ambitions. I worry those active fronts are concealing Iran's final dash to nuclear weapons.

Sure: "The latest Middle East confrontation is a reminder of the primacy the United States places on aircraft carrier deployments as a crisis response." Yes, carriers are a symbol of American power and they are useful in power projection missions against states that lack the ability to target them. My concern is for sea control missions against peer-level anti-ship threats. I worry that small states are getting that ability to strike our carriers even in power projection missions. Hezbollah hit an Israeli warship some years ago. The Houthis shot missiles at one of our destroyers several years ago. And look at what Ukraine is doing to Russia's Black Sea fleet. Are we sure Iran hasn't equipped its many allies with something more potent? Huge carriers can go from being a symbol of power to a symbol of weakness with one good video.

I wonder if Iran really wants to fight America now. I mean, how much ammunition and weaponry has Iran sold to Russia? Does Iran have enough to fight American forces if America seriously fights back? Or is this all an Iranian bluff? Of course, setting an American warship ablaze might get the administration to back down. Iran may believe we are now a "weak horse."

Analyzing the Winter War of 2022. Oh? "Another surprising element of Putin’s invasion plan is that it violated the Sidorenko force requirements in Russian military field manuals. At the start of 2022, the Ukrainian military had 196,600 active-duty personnel, which, according to the 3:1 force ratio rule, would have required an invasion of 590,000 Russian personnel." That's not how the 3:1 rule works. That put me off finishing the piece. But I returned to it, and it did have a good description of the war up to publication.

China's Achilles' Heel of its economic sprint. I was on that a while ago. Also, I don't really worry about the Thucydides Trap with China.

You don't hate and distrust our media nearly as much as you should: "Mrs Lifschitz [who was kidnapped by Hamas on its October 7th terror invasion] was released on Monday evening. ‘Released Israeli hostage shakes her captor’s hand’, gushed the BBC, encouraging us to think this elderly lady must have got on pretty well with her Hamas keepers. Then came the new post, the updated one, the correction, the truth. ‘I went through hell, says 85-year-old hostage released by Hamas’, it said." I lack the nuance gene, but even I can see there was a change. The author concludes, "We are living through the nadir of journalism." Oh, I doubt we've hit bottom.

The Chinese are playing with fire: "A Chinese fighter pilot nearly crashed into an American B-52 bomber over the South China Sea during a nighttime intercept on Tuesday, according to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command." Who can order the PLA to war, anyway?

American air defense forces previously alerted are heading to the Middle East. So what did we deploy prior to launching those tiny air strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guards weapons storage locations in eastern Syria?

Russia pulls the plug on the Battalion Tactical Group: "The Russian army is abandoning the BTG (Battalion Task Group) concept. In February 2022 one of the surprising developments was the failure of the BTG system. Russia had expanded the use of BTGs since the 1980s because BTGs had consistently proved successful in many small wars, including the rather large operation in Afghanistan during the 1980s." Killing the BTG seemed implicit in Russia's plans to rebuild their army. I didn't see the BTG as doing well in the invasion. But I was never impressed with it. On the bright side, did China adopt it? There is a related side trip to the China threat to Russia's Far East.

Meanwhile in the Pacific: "US President Joe Biden has warned China that the US will defend the Philippines in case of any attack in the disputed South China Sea."

Huh. A sign of life in a group I thought had become just another Democratic Party auxiliary. Tip to Instapundit.

Our planet swallowed a continent: "The splintered remnants of Argoland, a 155 million-year-old continent that once stretched as wide as the United States, were recently located throughout the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia."

The implication is that the Houthi did it: "Projectiles hit two Egyptian Red Sea towns on Friday, sources and officials said, injuring six people and showing the risk of regional spillover from the Israel-Gaza conflict." But if so, why didn't our Navy intercept the drones? Did the Houthi detour overland to avoid the Navy?

Industry catches up to my Army magazine suggestion for a drone interceptor: "Fortem Technologies, a Utah-based airspace security and defense company, has developed a net-slinging drone interceptor called the DroneHunter F700, a fully autonomous, radar-guided counter-UAS weapon built to stop Group 1 and large Group 2 drones."

I'd say that it was shameful for Biden to choose fossil fuels from Venezuela over supplies from our ally Canada. But under Justin Trudeau, Canada is becoming Venezuela-with-snow. 

Interesting argument that China's economic problems are self inflicted by a CCP leadership that wrongly thinks the USSR collapsed from a simple lack of will to remain in power. China is applying the wrong lesson as it clamps down on the Chinese people. And worse, that error pushes China to align with Russia against America in the belief that America is the cause of both of their problems: "As in the US, the projection of domestic problems and fears onto foreigners raises Sino-American tensions unnecessarily. It also leads China into an alignment with Putin’s Russia, because of a mistaken sense that Russia and China face the same risks." I wonder if Putin's invasion of Ukraine will change China's view of Russia's value. Interesting times, indeed.

Sweden isn't home free because Turkey's parliament has not approved Sweden's application to join NATO. And America hasn't approved F-16s for Turkey. Also, I suspected Russia was involved in the Koran burnings Russia advertised to the Moslem world: "Moreover, it appeared that the men involved in the book-burning incidents had links to Moscow."

We are paying too little attention to our ability to move and sustain forces overseas. Preaching to the TDR choir.

I'll note again that the trickle of Hamas rockets hitting Israeli civilian targets three weeks after the war started shows how hard it is to suppress that fire with your own firepower. The ultimate missile defense is your soldier standing on their missile launch sites. Keep that in mind as you ponder the potential Hezbollah front. I don't think Israel can hold the line and rely on firepower there.

How often have you heard analysts say that America has two carriers deployed in response to the Hamas war? "The Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group is more than halfway across the Atlantic on its way to join the mass of U.S. naval forces in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East[.]" I reported the strike group as on its way. 

The U.S. announced a new nuclear bomb--the B61-13. I guess a new strategic stealth bomber--the B-21--needs a new bomb. I sure hope our computer simulations work since we don't conduct nuclear tests anymore.

Submarine maintenance woes. Fingers crossed our enemies have worse problems.

NewsGuard "disinformation" outfit slams Daily Wire for saying terrorists are to blame for the Gaza hospital strike. Nobody is sure, they say. I don't recall any fact checking when the Hamas-sourced story claimed Israel killed a huge number of people there. You simply do not hate and distrust our media enough. Tip to Instapundit.

Clearly, America's tiny air strikes inside Syria against Iranian targets were just Retaliation Theater designed to look like the administration is trying to deter Iran rather than trying to deter Iran by inflicting serious pain they don't want repeated: "Just hours after U.S. fighter jets bombed facilities used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and its proxies in Syria early Friday, the proxies fired back — launching an attack drone at U.S. forces in western Iraq." 

If Israel is killing so many Palestinians, why do the Palestinians need to simulate victims? I'd say the terrorists are tricking our media. But our media wants to be fooled. You think you hate and distrust our media enough. You don't. Tip to Instapundit.

LOL:

 

As America battles Iran proxies inside Syria, "one must ask why those Americans are in harm’s way in the first place and whether the risks of keeping them there are commensurate with the perceived benefits. More than four years after the ISIS territorial caliphate was destroyed, one gets the sense that U.S. policy in Syria and Iraq is governed more by inertia than by a set of objectives that are clear, measurable, and achievable." While I think our presence serves good functions, I agree we should decide if those objectives are worth our troops dying to achieve. Without that decision it is hard to do more than Retaliation Theater (see earlier entry).

Will the surviving hostages ultimately be saved because the Hamas and other terrorist leaders inside Gaza fear for their lives enough to trade them for safe passage out of Gaza? Israel would make that deal. And then hunt the leaders down with the special unit tasked with hunting down every terrorist that helped carry out the October 7th terror invasion. 

Tip to Instapundit, American astronauts are scheduled to orbit the Moon in preparation for an eventual landing. The orbit is scheduled for November 2024. But the article explains that in a few weeks, a private robotic lander--NOVA-C --will return America's presence to the Moon in preparation for astronauts returning in 2025. America's return to the Moon is great. Aside from celebrating the belated space progress (would it have happened without China's drive?) am I cynical to wonder if that orbit will take place before the election? 

Given the importance of Congo's cobalt and the child labor involved in mining it, why don't we call our EV power sources "Blood Batteries"? Whatever. That's a small price to pay for the sense of moral superiority EV owners can display. Tip to PJ Media.

Russia adds indoctrination for high school kids (and future conscripts); and aims at giving reservists some minimal refresher training. I suspect that the determination of leadership to expand the program will dilute it to the point of irrelevance.

Are the combatants in the Winter War of 2022 too far behind in modern combat skills to teach Western armies relevant lessons?  Tip to TDI.

Huh. Did the media mis-translate the Hamas claim about 500 victims at the hospital blast as 500 deaths? If so, we have a damning indication that the media was primed and waiting for something really bad to report about Israel. And for them the apparent claim was too good to check. Imagine, even Hamas wasn't willing to claim 500 dead as they blamed Israel for the strike. As I say, you think you hate and distrust our media enough. But you don't. Tip to Instapundit.

For Hamas rulers, dead Palestinians are a feature rather than a bug of their strategy. Via Instapundit.

Iran is raising the prospect of a wider war to intimidate America over supporting Israel. I certainly want a localized war, but Iran's threats offend me. Iran should be soiling its underwear thinking about war with America--not the other way around. A superpower should not flinch from a barbarian state beating its chest and flinging poo. And if others in the region believe the threat of our power, we won't get a wider war. But I fear too many see America as the "weak horse" after our astounding self-defeat in Afghanistan. I mean, it would be crazy not to believe Allah is on your side after witnessing that skedaddle debacle, right?

Perhaps, at long last, Harvard has discovered human decency. Tip to Instapundit.

I think this was a strategic mistake: "Russians commemorated the victims of Stalinist terror on Sunday, more than 20 months into Moscow's Ukraine offensive that has been accompanied at home by a major crackdown on dissent." Reminding Putin of that era won't shame him. It will give him a "how-to" manual for harsher repression. 

I'm still adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.   

The European Union Puts Lipstick On Its Pig of an Empire

The proto-imperial European Union (EU) is trying a change in strategy after Russia's invasion of Ukraine reminded Europeans that Europe isn't a new world of rules-based peace and that Europe needs America-led NATO.

It wasn't that long ago that individual European countries could handle these things: 

Given the strategic use of immigration, energy, and critical raw materials, as well as the growing nationalization of technological innovation and regulation, member states cannot rely on NATO alone to meet all their defense needs. Only by expanding and strengthening the EU can the safety of European citizens be ensured.

The EU is redefining defense threats more broadly and noticing that NATO is--properly--an alliance of countries that is narrowly focused on military defense rather than intruding on all areas in the name of defense. The EU will gladly take responsibility for what NATO considered internal country matters of member states.

The EU has apparently abandoned its military "strategic autonomy" goal as America-led NATO has proven it is the only useful tool for European security from external invasion. 

Back to the proposal for more EU powers,  the proto-imperial EU is obviously designed to cripple the ability of member countries to handle these problems. Thus leaving the EU the only source of solutions. 

And I don't believe one of the three pillars of EU changes will restore lost democracy and (classical) liberal values, as the EU claims.

The EU is in reality a threat to America--and a more immediate threat to European freedom:

It is easy to forget--and this was a useful reminder to me--that Europe with its autocracies and monarchies was not fully part of a free West (although obviously part of the Western tradition) until we rebuilt Western Europe in that template after World War II. And NATO expansion after defeating the Soviet Union was more explicit in demanding democracy and rule of law for new members.

Don't be fooled that the EU will build a kinder and gentler autocracy. The EU doesn't like to waste a crisis in its quest to remove the pesky prefix.

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.  

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm still adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.   

Russia's Northern Fleet: Is Motive Or Opportunity Key?

Is the Russian navy a waste of resources? Does it make Atlantic enemies waste resources? Or can we even know how assets would be used before the shooting starts? It's the old "capabilities versus intent" debate.

I've long dismissed the value of a Russian blue water navy when they need more of their scarce resources for land campaigns. The Winter War of 2022 exposes why more resources are needed for land campaigns. But is Russia's navy really a land war asset disguised as a naval threat? Or do we have to judge on visible capabilities rather than the opaque and changeable intent?

Russia's use of their navy in the Black Sea for land attack (ongoing) and amphibious missions (opposed assaults were thwarted but movement of troops and supplies continues) against Ukraine reflects this insight: 

In the 1970s it was assumed that the Soviet Navy would launch a World War II-style counter-commerce campaign against NATO resupply in Europe. The Soviets possessed over 300 submarines and such a campaign seemed logical. Signals intelligence and other means, however, determined that Soviet submarines would primarily defend their ballistic missile submarines and support the Soviet Army rather than attack NATO convoys.

For decades I shared that apparently wrong assumption about the Soviet naval focus. Although I recognized the SSBN bastion mission to protect their most survivable strategic nuclear weapons. 

Along with the Soviet mission of destroying our big deck strike carriers that the Soviets assumed had strategic nuclear war missions against the Soviet motherland. And that mission is murkier earlier in the Cold War when Soviet SSBNs couldn't fire at their targets from the coastal  bastions and needed escorts to get closer to America. The capability to create a temporary forward bastion is indistinguishable from a capability to sink transport ships, no?

So depending on how the land campaign had gone if the USSR lunged toward the Rhine River, I imagine the Soviets could have decided to try an interdiction campaign to help a stalled offensive into West Germany. Especially if they managed to nail a lot of our big deck (both strike and ASW) carriers in the early hours of a war with their many--sometimes large--anti-ship missiles intended to disarm one method of nuking the USSR. Those American carriers had conventional sea control capabilities, too.

Remember that Germany had little ability to interdict Atlantic logistics lines at the beginning of both world wars. Yet in both came to rely on that kind of campaign to make up for failure to carry out rapid decisive land operations to win and end their wars. So they built up their submarine arsenal during the wars. The Soviets would have started with a large sub arsenal making a shift a matter of issuing an order rather than deciding to create the capability. Need would trump pre-war doctrine.

Despite Cold War  mirror-imaging analysis, assuming a counter-commerce campaign was probably the wisest course of action for NATO to make given the stakes of holding Atlantic supply lines open. The lack of the NATO ability to convoy ships across the Atlantic may have led the Kremlin to decide to use a latent capability to hit an area of NATO weakness at the onset. Pre-war intent would have counted for nothing during a war. 

Maybe we are mistaking Soviet reaction to our naval strength that pushed them to use their navy for support of a land campaign as failure to recognize cause and effect. Concluding we were "mirror imaging" what we'd do in a war regarding a line of supply interdiction campaign may have been our wrong explanation for the Soviets saying it wasn't worth the price to batter their naval assets against that wall at sea. Instead, they may have decided it would be more immediately profitable to directly support the decisive main land campaign--not that the Soviets didn't want to sink our transports if they could.

Are my worries about current Navy convoy escort capabilities wrong? I've also said the Russian navy doesn't have the ability to challenge our Atlantic logistics. But the Russians could decide to use what they have to try. Would that provide strategic results for Russia in the absence of current NATO defensive capabilities or "only" increase our casualties?

UPDATE: A timely article on the battle for Convoy HG-76 in the Atlantic.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm still adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.