Imperial Motive and Opportunity

Turkey used the weakness of Libya's GNA government to extract energy concessions from Libya. But Hiftar is really to blame for Turkey's intervention because of his inexplicable granting of time to the GNA by carrying out a cautious offensive.

This is true enough:

Several [GNA] officials say their side entered the [maritime border] deals with Turkey reluctantly, late last year, believing they had no choice. They desperately needed an ally as their opponent in the war, Libyan commander Khalifa Hifter, bore down on Tripoli with his forces, strengthened by Russian, Emirati and Egyptian backing.

“It was like a give-and-take game,” said one official in Tripoli-based Prime Minister Fayez Sarraj's office. “They took advantage of our weakness at the time.” He and other officials spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing for their safety in a country largely ruled by an array of militias.

In the end, Turkey sent troops and thousands of Syrian mercenaries and other military support that helped pro-Sarraj forces repel Hifter’s assault this spring, preventing the collapse of the Tripoli-based administration and shifting the tide of the war.

But the real opportunity for Turkey to intervene and extort energy concessions from Libya was Hiftar's granting of the precious gift of time to the GNA by failing to exploit his strength to rapidly defeat the GNA when the LNA had the GNA on the ropes:

Taking your time in a war--even one you are winning--grants your enemy time that they may use to change the course of the war. You may think being slow and careful is compassionate, but it is not. ...

[Consider] Libya, where Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA) has been involved in a long and slow effort since March 2019 to take Tripoli from the officially recognized Libyan government (Government of National Accord, or GNA). Victory there would pretty much knock out the government which controls little else. Haftar went slow to minimize casualties.

But the slow pace also granted his enemies time. Who used it as Turkey intervened on the side of the government[.] ...

Efforts to reduce casualties by slowing down the intensity of offensive operations only reduce the rate of casualties. If reducing the rate of casualties extends the time you endure that "lower" rate of casualties, your total casualties could end up being much higher than if you had endured a higher rate to win in a shorter period of time.

I called this kind of effort to reduce the rate of casualties "false compassion:"

Perhaps Hiftar had little choice because his troops would not die at a higher rate to ensure they didn't die at lower rates for a much longer time.

But it is an example of the false compassion that motivates calls for ceasefires, stricter rules of engagement, and that farcical "proportionality" confusion that is so prevalent.

Just what are the limits of Erdogan's ambitions, anyway (back to the initial article)?

“We are tearing up maps of the East Mediterranean that were drawn up to imprison us on the mainland,” Erdogan deputy Fuat Oktay said.

The Eastern Question is revived for the 21st Century. And there's more to Erdogan's ambitions on the way to rebuilding their caliphate.

Target-Rich Environment

Spike NLOS--or something like it--could be useful to smash massed heavy armor coming across Belarus and aimed at Poland:

The Israeli manufacturer of the Spike NLOS (Non-Line Of Sight) long-range (25-32 kilometers) missile has entered into a joint production deal with a Polish firm to provide Spike NLOS for use in Polish “tank-destroyer” vehicles. These would be equipped with eight missile launchers and communications equipment enabling the vehicle crew to get target information from front line troops, UAVs or other aircraft. With these capabilities the NLOS vehicles could launch surprise mass attacks on distant enemy armor.

The Poles could put the missiles on a lot of older Soviet-era armored vehicles and make them quite useful.

The Russians have the backbone for massed armor assaults.

If the Russians want to cross the unfortunately located Belarus--and sadly, Lukashenko needs Russia to stay in power too much to build much of an army to hold off the Russians--and head west, right now only Russian logistics would slow them down.

Which is why we need diplomacy to keep the most important territory in Europe today a buffer zone. And if Lukashenko needs to perhaps brutally suppress a growing opposition, how much help would he need from Russia and what price in reduced Belarusian sovereignty would Putin demand for that help.

And the West might want to make sure the Russian First Guards Tank Army has other higher priority missions.

EUCOM Changes

We have an outline now of how European Command (EUCOM) will change with the draw down of American troops in Germany, which is basically being punished for being a wealthy country that refuses to meet spending goals that it promised to achieve within the time limit established by NATO.

This is it. It reminds us of the objectives for the change:

1. Enhance deterrence of Russia
2. Strengthen NATO
3. Reassure allies
4. Improve U.S. strategic flexibility and EUCOM operational flexibility
5. Take care of our Service members and their families in the process.

The big picture is that the "current EUCOM plan will reposition approximately 11,900 military personnel from Germany – from roughly 36,000 down to 24,000[.]" Nearly 5,600 will redeploy to other NATO countries while the rest will return to the United States.

Details include:

--Troops redeploying within Europe include headquarters elements going to Belgium and Italy.

--The 2nd Cavalry Regiment (A Stryker brigade combat team) will return its 4,500 troops to the United States; but it will be part of a new rotation of Stryker units to the NATO Black Sea region.

--An F-16 squadron and elements of a fighter wing (the headquarters element?) will move from Germany to Italy, in order to rotate aircraft to the Black Sea region.

--Apart from the reduction, 2,500 Air Force aerial refueling and special operations personnel will cancel their move from Britain to Germany.

--In addition, lead elements of the reestablished Fifth Corps will begin rotations to Poland, which may be the first of other deployments to Poland and the Baltics NATO states.

That's it. Although what the balance of 6,400 coming home apart from 2CR is not stated. It will take money and time to carry out.

I don't like removing 2CR from Europe. Although rotations will help restore American skills in moving units across the Atlantic to Europe. But I'd rather have 2CR moved to Romania. Or--be still my heart--turned into a real armored cavalry regiment and moved to Lithuania.

And planting a corps headquarters in NATO is good. I'm on record--in Military Review (pp. 15-20)--as wanting a corps there along with 5 brigades--although with Russia being all Russian-like now the need for troops to defend Europe must be considered rather than thinking of Europe primarily as a staging area for the Arc of Crisis from West Africa to Central Asia.

And it seems as if the infrastructure in Germany to deploy American forces from America to points east and south is maintained.

So Germany takes an economic hit from the loss of American troops and their families in Germany. I assume the rest of NATO will urge Germany to take the hit and move on--and to meet their 2% spending promise sooner than Germany says they will.

So the overall move is okay assuming that Germany doesn't react irrationally to harm NATO capabilities in retaliation.

UPDATE: Oh?

Norbert Roettgen, the head of the Bundestag’s Foreign Affairs Committee, warned on Twitter, “In withdrawing 12,000 soldiers from Germany, the USA achieve[s] the exact opposite from what [Defense Secretary] Mark Esper outlined. Instead of strengthening NATO it is going to weaken the alliance.

What capabilities are lost? How is the alliance weakened? The Stryker brigade and an additional 1,900 are leaving Europe. Given Germany's refusal to have more than a token military, the Germans can hardly object to a Stryker brigade returning to the United States. Maybe the nearly 2,000 are the difference between free Europe and Europe conquered by the Russians?

Pray tell, Germany, please explain.

And explain why the mighty German economy couldn't add a single armored brigade to make up for the Stryker brigade?

Look, I'd rather reinforce Europe to deter the Russians. But I've been losing that battle for a long time.

And I'll be damned if I let the Germans cop that attitude and get away with it.

UPDATE: AFRICOM headquarters is part of the 12,000 reduction but it is not known where it might go--elsewhere in Europe or back to the United States. Is the headquarters part of the moving to America total or the elsewhere in Europe total?

There didn't seem to be a third option of "waiting to see." Although to be fair that was a description of EUCOM moves.

Or maybe I'm misreading the article and the plan to move AFRICOM headquarters was part of the "plan" for EUCOM but the personnel involved are completely separate from the 12,000. discussed.

Yet the talk all along was for a reduction in Germany to 25,000. Does the AFRICOM move go below the 25,000 and perhaps give the Pentagon room to put something new into Germany and still be under the cap?

UPDATE: On the separate reinforcement of Poland angle that will add 1,500 troops, an agreement with Poland was completed:

Under the agreement, a division command will be housed at Poznań, while a training center will be located at Drawsko Pomorskie, a frequent host of multinational NATO exercises. There will also be an Air Force logistics hub, a headquarters for a rotational Combat Aviation Brigade, two separate special ops facilities, and another base near the German border that will house an Armored Brigade Combat Team.

America is not abandoning NATO.

UPDATE: More on Poland: "Poland has agreed to fully fund infrastructure for:  

• A command post of the Army’s V Corps headquarters
• A US division headquarters in Poland
• A joint-use Combat Training Center in Drawsko Pomorskie, among other training locations
• Facilities for an Air Force MQ-9 drone squadron 
• An aerial port of debarkation to support the movement of forces in and out of the country
• Facilities to support special operations forces so they can conduct air, ground and maritime operations
• Infrastructure for an armored brigade combat team, a combat aviation brigade, and a combat sustainment support battalion"

This does not represent "abandoning" NATO.

UPDATE: The false charge isn't new and still isn't true.

UPDATE: More thoughts.

UPDATE: Late options. Rotating troops is more expensive than basing them there. But rotating is good practice for reinforcing Europe. Ideally I'd like more troops there and rotations.

Canada Needs More Than Bob and Doug

America and Canada should be defending the Arctic because Russia and China (!) are more active there:

As the COVID-19 pandemic distracts much of the world, Russia and China are brazenly encroaching on the melting Arctic. Once-frozen waters are now becoming sea lanes and potential attack routes, creating dramatic new security dangers for North America.

In April, Russian Spetsnaz special forces troops conducted an impressive, high-altitude parachute drop and mock airborne raid on a Russian Arctic island.

Russia has also reopened abandoned Soviet-era military installations, built new military bases and icebreakers, increased troop presence and military drills, and established advanced radar stations in its territory above the Arctic Circle.

I agree. But before Canada can cooperate with America in defending the Arctic, the Canadians have to start defending the Arctic.

I've been looking forward to Canada looking north in order to man a NATO frontline, but they just haven't.

And while I'm at it, how on Earth can China get away from claiming to be a "near Arctic" state with interests there?

Peak Stupid or Peak Denial?

I know I promised to refrain from Peak Stupid posts, but I'm only human:

Police [in Britain] consider dropping terms 'Islamist terror' or 'jihadi' because they 'don't help community relations'[.]

If a "community" is offended by those terms they aren't any community the police should want to treat with deference.

And for non-Moslems, doesn't the refusal to use specific terms for a minority of nutball killers just give that public the idea that jihadis represent all Moslems?

What's really funny is that the term the National Association of Muslim Police suggests for jihadis is the Arabic word "irhabi," which translates as--wait for it!--"terrorist."

Perhaps British police could spend a little more time fighting Islamist terrorists rather than going through verbal gymnastics to disguise the fact that they have a problem with Islamist terrorists.

Are the British that far from my ancient "happy Islamist friends" suggestion? (Use the find feature to get down to the November 1 post.)

Tip to Stephen Green.

What's Up With China? Does Size Matter?

Thoughts on a rising China (based on recent speculation about peak China):

“The threat of China is neither their military power, ideological autocracy nor political maneuvers. Make no mistakes. The real threat is the size of China itself.” My views on China remain based on this maxim.

Size surely matters--both positively and negatively depending on the circumstances--but I don't think that size is supreme. If it is, why does China have any smaller neighbors at all after all these centuries?

I think that while China is not done rising absolutely, I don't know if China can pass America or if it can if China can hold the lead.

I also don't assume China will remain a political expression rather than a geographic term.

And yes, the Chinese Communist Party is all about securing the power of the CCP above all else like a parasite on the China host body.

But stoking nationalism to keep that political power monopoly is dangerous.

That first link is well worth a read.

Nothing To See, Move Along

The Hanmaid's Tale:

China’s treatment of the Uighurs is reminiscent of the kind of abuse fictionalized in The Handmaid’s Tale, yet even the AP report is replete with Western euphemisms, such as involuntary “birth control” and “population control.” Get into the details and what the Egyptians did to the Israelites almost seems tame by comparison. Men and women of conscience in the West have a duty to call this out for what it is — evil.

China under the evil Chinese Communist Party can't decline and break up soon enough.

Can We Teach Our Children the Way Lockdown Proponents Want?

I am upset that our schools are remaining closed under pressure from teacher unions, as I noted in the last Weekend Data Dump.


I dare say that teaching in a high-crime area school is far more dangerous than it can be in a prepared school in the Xi Jinping Flu era.

Why can't we at least open schools for K-6 students?

Spread out the 6th graders in the absence of 7th and 8th graders in the middle schools.

Use portions of the high schools to spread out the elementary school kids while reserving certain specialty areas like labs for the high schoolers to do hands-on work for classes and for in-person tutoring for the 7-12-graders who can't get by on remote learning. Establish "pods" for those kids in the in-person tutoring whose parents can't afford to hire their own.

I thank God my kids are finally out of the K-12 system with the way the new school year is being planned.

If we keep schools closed in the ludicrous pretense that they can't be opened until it is 100% safe (or until after the November election?), a lot of poor kids are going to fall further behind and be crippled for life in education and job prospects.

Are those young kids the cannon fodder in the single-minded obsession of destroying the Bad Orange Man?

Don't Assume Any Type of Ship as Now Built is Necessary, or Even Advisable

I see we're being deliberately stupid now:

[Last] month the incoming U.S. Navy secretary called a halt to a study on the future of the country’s fleet of 11 aircraft carriers. The “Future Carrier 2030 Task Force” was asked to test how large, nuclear-powered carriers might stack up against the new generation of long-range precision weapons being fielded by China and Russia. While the loss of an individual study doesn’t necessarily mean that the Navy has stopped thinking about the future of its carriers, it is nevertheless a great shame.

So yeah:

Well, my view on carriers is well established and my reasons for that position get stronger every day as precision and persistent surveillance get better and cheaper.

But the idea in that article that we should have perhaps half of our carriers smaller than the Ford class behemoths doesn't make financial sense despite successes with Navy big-deck amphibious ships using F-35Bs, as I wrote when the Navy's first deployment went well:

But remember, she is not a carrier. So don't think the testing proves we should build light carriers.

I've long discussed this secondary capability.

As I noted in this post, medium carriers don't actually save money for the same aviation capabilities:

I recently read that the Navy had studied medium carriers with 55 planes versus large carriers with 75 planes and found that the large ships and wings generated twice the sorties at a ship and plane cost only 13% more than the medium ships.

And interesting enough, even a wing of 55 planes on the large carrier generated 40% more sorties than the same wing on a medium carrier.

That's because our carriers are planned to be able to use 2/3 of the wing at the same time. So a big carrier's deck can handle a higher percentage of the smaller wing's planes.

So, yeah, we couldn't build enough smaller carriers at the same price to be more survivable and we'd have less sortie generation capacity.

If we build carriers, they should be big. But that doesn't end the carrier debate. Then the question is, do we need carriers at all?

Although I will grant the point that sortie rate might not be as important with precision. Although the cost savings of an equal number of smaller carriers won't be that much; and we'll have no more carrier targets to spread out the Chinese attackers, which is normally what you'd want to do when faced with the vulnerability of high value ships--build lots of cheaper more expendable ones instead.

To think that only three months ago I had hope we might have a seapower debate divorced from a carrier debate.

Weekend Data Dump

Nearly a decade after France intervened in Mali to stop a jihadi takeover, the country remains in turmoil (corruption, separatism, jihadis our and about). I guess nuance isn't enough to fix everything. But the French did stop the jihadis from having an African caliphate.

Lasers continue to get closer to being actual weapons. One, "THOR (Tactical High-Power Microwave Operational Responder), which is a $10 million system that is shipped in and used from a standard 40-foot shipping container. The container can be hauled around on a flatbed truck or placed on the ground." Or placed on a modularized auxiliary cruiser along with other containers housing electrical generators and capacitors.

I wouldn't mind American slavery education in the United States so much--right now the preferred 1619 curriculum is ignorant junk history--if it went into the long history of slavery around the world, explained that Africans waged war on each other and sold the losers to European slave traders; that Arabs have a long history of taking both African and European slaves in large numbers; that Europeans eventually decided that slavery was wrong and banned it; and that America ended it here by force of arms at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives in our bloodiest war ever. But no, the "education" will be about how unique and evil America is.

Note to self: buy more ammo. And claymore mines would be nice. Not that I really think it is going that way nationwide. But we could have pockets of violent and extremist stupidity just as we have in the past.

If our modern-day Red Guards could send this professor for badthink to toil in the fields they surely would. Tip to Instapundit.

If France and Germany cooperate they can lead a "geopolitical Europe?" Perish the thought. They've each had a couple tries at forming a European empire geopolitical Europe. And they've fought each other over that issue. Now they should cooperate and share the prize. Will the rest of Europe agree to be their vassal provinces when they strip the prefix from the proto-imperial European Union?

Cool! Via Instapundit. I have dim memories of this era. But my Billy Blastfoff and Major Matt Mason sets got a lot of use back then.

Making a mountain out of a molehill. I don't think NATO is fragile and I don't think Libya will be anything near a "ultimate test" for NATO.  The Egyptians do seem serious about sending in troops to Libya to back Hiftar--or at least to seriously bluff the Turks and deter their advance east. The Turks are sending Syrian mercenaries to fight in Libya because Turks don't want to die for Libya. I imagine that will continue after Egypt sends forces in. I wonder what Egypt will send? A brigade? A division? Plus special forces and air power, of course. A naval blockade, too? Will we see an Egyptian Mistral amphibious ship in action? Or maybe just advisors and firepower? I wonder what the Saudis will fund?

I think our military footprint in South Korea should not get smaller. It is already pretty small. Sure, the South Koreans can handle anything from North Korea short of nukes. But increasingly I see our forces there as a shield for our stuff in Japan and as staging area for operations outside of South Korea. I'd like to keep that.

Iran executed a man for spying for the Mossad and the CIA? Are the Iranians paranoid enough to believe the Mossad would share an asset with the CIA and risk him getting burned? Maybe the man spied for one or the other, but not both, I think. And the Iranians may be so paranoid that they are just executing some usual suspects to project the image of controlling the situation--and to scare off actual spies.

I keep reading that the Xi Jinping Flu tests are giving an awful lot of false positives. With a lot more tests given, a sizable percentage of false-positives is going to give a lot more cases, looking like a surge. Also, false positives could give a false impression of lots of people without symptoms at all who don't seem to spread the covid19 virus. We're supposed to make decisions based on data but how good is the data? Maybe we'd be better off with the ancient methods:


I'm so old I remember when the ACLU fought for civil liberties instead of being legal counsel for left-wing scumbag causes.

I don't know nearly enough about the belief structure of Islam to know if Islamists and jihadis form their view of Islam from a flawed or true interpretation of Islam. (Although a lot of Islamic people for a long time seems to have assumed Islam wants conquest given the amount of land that Islam has conquered since the 7th century.) What I do know is that regardless of why each side (if it can be simplified to two sides for the sake of this) believes Islam should be Islamist and eager to kill non-Moslems or live-and-let-live, there is a civil war within Islam over how to define Islam. I want the jihadis to lose regardless of why or how they think killing non-Moslems is Allah's plan.

For the life of me I don't know why it is double-plus goodthink to promote segregation.

Last week I mentioned that keeping schools closed won't harm well off children even as poor children get their futures crippled by online learning. Yeah.

I see the senator who claims to want income redistribution wants to use the Xi Jinping Flu as an excuse to "forgive" student loans. Which means that upper middle class kids will get tens of thousands of dollars for their pandemic pain while working blue collar people might get $1,200--and have the pleasure of paying taxes to pay for the not-magically forgiven loans.

Warren and all like her can take a long walk down a short pier as far as I'm concerned. Also, Monty Python wrote that--not me. And I have no problem with Walker. But sadly choices for that sketch were not available.

I don't want to hear another damn word about Democrats being the party of science.

The hand puppets from Hell. And note the new rail line through Iran that will compete with Pakistan's control of access to Afghanistan. I had hopes for this when announced. If only Iran wasn't controlled by nutballs. Still, it is an improvement.

Don't trust Chinese software.  Tip to Instapundit.

Portland is dying. Don't be silly, it is being reborn much as Fallujah, Iraq was from May to November 2004.

You know what's wrong right now? There are people who see a crazy naked chick and draw all sorts of deeper meaning from the show. Get a grip people. I'm not the only one to notice the reporting insanity.

Um, to highlight the fact that Biden couldn't pass it? I mean, every time a lefty mocks the president for acing a test only those with dementia can't pass, doesn't that put pressure on Biden to take it, too?

I'm Irish, reject the cultural appropriation BS, and welcome this young lady's interest in performing traditional Irish dancing.

Whatever happened to "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?" People need to shut the ef up and leave people alone.

Seriously, what's the difference between racists and woke people in their attitudes about African Americans?

A lot of work was needed to disprove some pretty convenient anti-police BS. Via Instapundit. Question: When did The Atlantic get rid of their layers and layers of fact checkers that distinguish the professional media from mere bloggers?

In Libya, the Turks look like they are preparing to hit Sirte, which the LNA holds and which is key to preventing the GNA from striking south to take oil fields. The Turks have drones and now artillery to back their mercenaries. Egypt set a red line at Sirte. With Qatar financing the GNA which is also backed by Iran a little bit and with the LNA financed by the Saudis and also backed by Egypt and Russia--and don't forget the jihadis!--the Libyan civil war is turning into a lovely multi-war just as Syria changed. How Turkey finds this worth the expense and the animosity of NATO and the EU on top of everything is beyond me. What did Trump and Egypt's Sisi discuss about Libya, anyway?

I was listening to pundits I like (who intensely dislike Trump) on the GLOP podcast saying that moderates who voted for Trump in 2016 will abandon him in 2020 because they expected he would cut deals with Democrats in Congress. That's interesting given that I feared exactly that because I never viewed Trump as conservative. The funny thing is, as I've also mentioned, is that the relentless, often unhinged--and possibly illegal in the executive branch--Resistance to Trump denied Trump the chance to compromise with House Democrats. That Democratic refusal to deal with Trump pushed Trump to be conservative enough to satisfy me. Will moderate voters really punish Trump for Democratic obstruction and hostility? No Republican effort could get away with this against a Democratic president given media bias in favor of Democrats. You don't even need to like Trump to appreciate that letting Democrats get away with this is worse than four more years of Trump. But Democrats might get away with it. Sigh. I have a long history of despising Trump. I could not bring myself to vote for him in 2016 because I thought he had no hope of defeating Clinton, and did not want to soil myself voting for him and getting the corrupt Clinton. And I have often grimaced at Trump's behavior since the election. But the Democrats have behaved so horribly and seemingly illegally in ways that threaten rule of law that I will absolutely and without fail vote for Trump in the hopes that I can help deny Democrats the fruits of their horrible behavior. I'd rather endure Trump's behavior for four more years. I hope enough people agree with me.

The Chinese Communist Party says everything is fine with the massive Three Gorges Dam. If WHO agrees, run for your lives.

This is really interesting. But if there were earlier technological civilizations on Earth wouldn't they have used up the fossil fuels we use? Or are they more common than we think? Or are we wrong about how they form? What would be a more likely energy source for such a past civilization that perhaps we could not use because that was used up? And the research might help us determine if industrial civilizations ever existed on other planets and moons in our solar system.

I don't have an opinion on the offered solution to Chinese claims on the South China Sea. I do think America should rally the world in defense of international waters as much as possible and deny that China has legal authority there. But Chinese claims are pointless in one sense if China doesn't--or can't afford to try--regulate foreign ships plying those waters. And in war, Chinese legal claims would be pointless if China can't enforce their claim. So while I want America to resist Chinese legal claims I'm more interested in America rallying countries to have the military power to make such claims moot.

The irony of their defense given the circumstances of the crime and the fact that poor Black arsonists would be sitting in jail waiting for trial should not be lost on people. That's quite the status privilege they are trying to assert. Throw the book at them, I say. Tip to Instapundit.

The United States is trying to end the Syrian multi-war with new sanctions. I just thank God we didn't further militarize the problem 500,000 dead ago.

I strongly disagree with this Congressional push to make Space Force adopt Navy rank structure. It isn't a space navy until it moves out of the Earth-Moon system, as far as I'm concerned.

I won't assume Brexit is a done deal until the British are truly and finally out with all the formalities achieve. I have no doubt that Remainers will use the pandemic as an excuse to stay in the EU. And the EU will make Britain pay to do that just as hard as the EU has tried to make Britain pay for leaving. I hope the British government keeps a stiff upper lip throughout and escapes the proto-imperial power that would conquer Britain.

So under the NFL rule, players could actually put the names of violent criminals justifiably killed by police on their helmets? That would be interesting.

One would think that Ethiopia could come to some agreement with Egypt and Sudan over the Ethiopian GERD Nile River dam. But I don't see how war--short of conquering Ethiopia, which is beyond Egypt's capability--would solve the issue in Egypt's favor.

The United States ordered the Chinese to close their consulate in Houston to hurt Chinese espionage efforts.

While I have long disliked both the militarization of our police and the expansion of police into federal agencies with no business having their own means of force, the liberal outrage over uniformed and marked Homeland Security police is just stupid. "'I mean, that he can pick on our city mostly because of the way we vote and make an example of it for his base is very frightening,' she said." I guess that woman hasn't noticed the 50-some straight days of rioting in the city unwilling to to stop it as perhaps a reason for the federal attention. The police are public uniformed and not secret police and they are civil servants and not Trump's private army. Now if you want to discuss how Antifa is the Democratic Party's private army, we can talk (although the Democrats just think they can turn Antifa on and off at will for their own objectives). Also, unmarked police vehicles are common things. TDS is real (I've given up on my preferred THC) and spectacularly stupid. Honestly, I'd keep the federal police tethered to the federal property and let the Democratic cities burn as long as the Democratic local leaders and mostly Democratic constituents are happy to let them burn. The feds don't need local permission to enforce federal laws (which are too many and too expansive as far as I'm concerned), but make them ask for help. Enjoy.

Turkey is angering their formal NATO ally Greece, too. But there's a long history of hostility there.

Rather than cancel my YouTube TV over their latest price increase, I ended up suspending my YouTube TV account for two months once my current paid month expires. It will be interesting to see whether they offer to roll back their price before I get used to not having it. I'm really not looking forward to the limited woke sports or campaign season TV news that has already gone insane during a TDS- and hate-fueled pandemic. What will that be like after Labor Day? I don't think I'll miss either one. Screw them all. They can enjoy their Two Months Hate without me. I know you're probably sick of reading this, but it is a crime against language to think that "liberal minded" is a synonym for "open minded."

Yes, the president has the authority to send federal police agencies into cities without local permission. But those are for relatively narrow purposes. Don't think that the federal government could plop 20,000 federal officers--if that was even possible--into Chicago and instantly replace city police who have built up intelligence and relationships over decades to help them police the city--however poorly they do it with poor city leadership.

Good.

Moms Morons in Helmets is more like it in Portland. What's the expression? no such thing as bad kids--just bad parents? 

Turkey and Russia say they want a ceasefire in Libya. I don't really believe either one, but it is possible that each doesn't want to pay the price to win and is happy to have a corner of Libya with a reliant and pliant client. And Turkey gets the Mediterranean fossil fuels, recall.

I don't want to hear another damn word about Democrats being the party of science. I've been agnostic on the issue--out of my lane, I've admitted--but the other side has treated opposing this treatment like a matter of faith and purity. Is it too much to ask to have a medical debate instead of one more political one? Tip to Instapundit.

The AR-15 that St. Louis man brandished to protect his home was an inoperable prop weapon for court. Assuming the man didn't make it inoperable before surrendering it.

Humanitarian news from the clusterfuck with a UN seat. Even without the foreign-supported civil war the place would be a mess.

Hate is not a family value.

The teachers refusing to go back to school in the fall are pissing me off. Poor kids will suffer without the resources upper middle class students will have to excel online. But the teachers want perfect safety--safety that they apparently don't think all those "essential" blue collar and health workers working every day to let the teachers stay at home need the same level of protections. Locals can figure out steps to make it safe and if older teachers can't be accommodated with remote teaching, let them retire or quit. I'm sure a lot of younger (and less vulnerable) recently graduated teachers would be eager for the opportunity. And not long after I wrote that I spot this at Instapundit!


Layers and layers of fact checkers.

Is the land bridge theory of the migration to North America wrong? Did people go directly to South America much earlier than the theory?  In the early 1990s I knew someone in archeology grad school who described how the archeology mafia suppressed any evidence that would undermine the land bridge theory. Science! Of course, describing little pieces of stone fragments as parts of ancient tools could be wishful thinking more than anything.

Looks like the patch says "U.S. Border Patrol" to me. I think I'll believe my lying eyes rather than trust what professional journalists Raymond and Danner tell me.

Is Kamala Harris dumping opposition research on her VP rivals? I think they are missing the lede: Elizabeth Warren is a  "woman of color?" Tip to Instapundit.

Sure, Lileks is a year late in addressing the stupidity, but until morons like Maysaud are laughed out of editors' offices, the job is not over.

I see the Wall Street Journal has entered a murder-suicide pact with the New York Times.

Do Europeans bizarrely shill for Iran despite Iranian terror in Europe or because of the terror?

The United States sent 7 Somali Islamic State jihadis to Paradise.

I give this satire two weeks maximum before it is actual news.

What the Hell is up with that?!

Some time ago I gave credit to California--despite my headaches from its far left government--for containing the Xi Jinping Flu. Fair is fair, I thought. I was perhaps premature in my congratulations.

From the "Well, Duh" files an admission that the mass protests and rioting initially over George Floyd spread the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. It annoyed me that smart people denied the obvious. Although thus far we're just getting baby steps toward the obvious. I really an am optimist.

The Puckle Gun. Impressive for 1718.

At this point, I'd wear one of those stupid p**sy hats if it would get the Democrats to stop holding our schools and economy hostage.

Putin spearheaded with uniformed Russian troops without insignia an illegal invasion of Ukraine and then illegally annexed Crimea. Trump lawfully sent in federal police in marked uniforms to enforce federal law in Portland where lawless thugs have terrorized the city with the acquiescence of local officials. But other than those major differences they are just the same. Are people that stupid or that partisan? No wonder the dreck is unsigned.

It amazes me that Biden beat Bernie in the primary contest, yet post-victory Biden has surrendered the policy he will run on to Bernie. You can't even see Bernie's lips move when Biden speaks.

Israel reinforced their border with Hezbollah-occupied southern Lebanon just in case. It certainly could be defensive. But I've long thought Israel would have a go at really tearing up Hezbollah from behind a border shield.

The Marines are looking to make Okinawa a anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bastion rather than being a power projection platform with conventional ground and air power as it has been since the end of World War II.

Chinese power in the waters around the Horn of Africa and Arabian Peninsula will increase in the future. Unless the political power that comes with that growth in military power ejects America from much of the land bases around there, I suspect Chinese ships in wartime would lead a short but exciting life. But for now, Iran is the 5th Fleet's biggest day-to-day problem.

Russia rolled out the unwelcome mat for Space Force with an anti-satellite weapon test.

Yeah, conventional wars between peers will likely be protracted despite the enduring allure of  ending a war by Christmas. The only positive aspect to the unlikelihood that America can win quickly is that enemies are just as likely to be ill-prepared for a protracted war. But that just means that rather than being defeated quickly we settle in for a long war. Have a super sparkly day.

Britain is more welcoming post-Brexit than feared?" Racism and xenophobia "seemed to permeate Britain’s air" only because Remainers shamefully projected that onto Leavers in the referendum campaign and aftermath. A free Britain not under the proto-imperial EU's rule and able to forge its own immigration rules will be free to welcome immigrants.

Can you even imagine the months-long media "conversation" we'd have to endure on misogyny if a Republican attorney general said something like this? 

If Democrats don't pay for holding Americans hostage in violence-wracked cities (lovely little city you have there. It would be a shame if something bad happened to it), we'll just be saying that this tactic works and we'll get more of it. Let's hope that the November election shows that the ultra-woke social media Red Guard mobs don't come close to reflecting America.

Don't tell the Democrats this or we'll all be on lockdown in individual  safety cubes made from shipping containers.

"Mostly peaceful" protesters in Portland. Yet this is what the city is focused on? "The Portland Bureau of Transportation demanded the federal government on Thursday to remove a reinforced fence in front of the Mark O. Hatfield Federal Courthouse, because the fence was placed in a bike lane without permits." Oh FFS! The horror! At this point I assume the interest is in facilitating a Antifa suicide bike bombers.

Ever since she was a lying spokesperson for the State Department I have despised Marie Harf. Not even a pandemic can change her. She's basically Russia distilled into one person. I actually missed the chance to see her performance because as soon as she appears on the TV I turn it off rather than endure her.

Collusion.

Come on, people, if we don't ignore them how can we expect them to go away?

Apparently Hulu will have a series speculating on Hillary Clinton's spectacular political career had she not married Bill Clinton. I wonder who they assume she'd marry instead? Or--good God--does Hulu think Hillary could have advanced as far on her own political and interpersonal skills?

I don't understand why some Americans are so pro-mullah. The idea that the 2015 Iran deal was anything but a gift to Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions truly baffles me. Don't let the echo chamber band get back together.

I've mentioned that it seems like life works out for me even if it doesn't seem so at the time. It just occurred to me that a vision peculiarity allows me to easily read tiny print on my smart phone despite my age. That ability was not important when I was a kid. But the world evolved to my situation. So how is the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic going to end up helping me? Or is this the end of my streak?

You may wish to note that the media is focused on covering the states not at the top of this chart rating states for the rate of Xi Jinping Flu pandemic deaths:


Iran says that checking on one of our planes to make sure it isn't supporting terrorism is "terrorism;" but somehow their terror is just okey dokey.

People who still haven't accepted the results of the 2016 election claim Trump won't accept the result of the 2020 election.

Americans in the Green Zone are now protected from pro-Iranian militia rocket attacks; and growing Iraqi hostility to Iran is working for America. Iraqis were grateful for Iran's help after ISIL rose up in the first half of 2014 and caused the collapse of Iraq's security forces in the north. Without America there, whose forces left too soon at the end of 2011, bad trends of corruption and openings for Islamists took place. America returned in Iraq War 2.0 and now that ISIL is defeated as a territory-based caliphate, Iraqis started noticing--and rejecting--Iran's increased influence which could only turn out bad as in Lebanon and Syria. Funny enough, America's departure in 2011 when asked added to America's credibility and contrasted with Iran's post-ISIL drive to coerce Iraqis. Iraqis had to die in large numbers between America's departure and the defeat of ISIL to learn that lesson, unfortunately. I doubt that was Obama's intention in 2011, but that is one result.

Federal employees who put America through Hell on the BS Russia collusion fantasy need to go to prison and lose pensions to deter future homegrown radicalized election meddlers. As an aside, the acceptance of RUMORINT--much seemingly planted by Russian intelligence--as valid is just shocking, and makes our people look like a bunch of useful idiots. Via Instapundit. And yet the professional left-wing media insists on calling a BS artist trafficking in rumor and misinformation a "source." Amazing.

As an additional aside to the above story, I wonder if the British are regretting their participation in this scheme. I assume that absent the British working with the Obama administration on the assumption that Hillary would follow that Britain would already have a post-Brexit free-trade agreement with America. The British are our friends and a good ally--except for that Russia collusion BS role. And I'll get over this. But making them sweat a bit isn't a bad thing to deter that sort of thing. Also, I used to trust the scholarship of Brookings even though it is left of center.

Australia rejects China's claims to control the South China Sea.

The body count inflicted by "mostly peaceful protesters" (is that trademarked yet?) is growing.

Making policy follow science on the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic--let alone balancing the public health with other critical areas--is hard when the Covid19 science remains unsettled. As an aside, I could see early on that the advice not to use masks was not a decision based on science but a policy decision designed to reserve masks for health care workers. I gave my daughter a N95 mask to keep with her and explained they work, since she was in a crowded high school just in case it spread there. Those were the days when the models predicting massive spread and death weren't known to be wrong. Now the policy decision to wear masks has matched the science but the damage was done to the reflex to "follow the science" by the first mask policy decision.

The media has lost so much credibility that I don't assume their characterization  of this dead man's comments is in any way accurate. I assume the two snipped examples given would look completely reasonable in the correct context.

Yes, Black lives matter. Of course they must under our Constitution and system of rule of law. But Black Lives Matter is a Marxist group, and more people should reject bending the knee to their schemes to conflate the two.

'Merica: "Chinese staff departed China's Houston consulate to a jeering crowd on Friday after the U.S. government ordered the building closed, calling it a hub for spying on American companies and researchers." Don't ever count Americans out.

Big if true. But it is 2020, so who knows? Still, I think this is disinformation to obscure American advanced aircraft developments.

Yes, what liberals don't understand is that the price of things isn't only about money. In socialism, money is basically worthless so the access politicians can grant to get things is in practice the real currency--which they exploit. Remember, capitalism doesn't cause greed. People cause greed. At least with free market capitalism everyone can benefit rather than just the politicians who control the supply:


Huh: "The Washington football team will simply compete as the Washington Football Team for the upcoming season, sources informed NBC Sports Washington on Thursday." WFT? WTF?!

Claims from Democrats that Trump was too slow to react to the Xi Jinping Flu Covid19 pandemic are ridiculous given that Democrats, the Chinese Communist Party, WHO, and the American media downplayed the virus early on and complained bitterly about what limited things Trump did. Do read it all and don't let the Democrats and their media allies memory hole this record.

The bright side is that the demand for American police brutality greatly exceeds the supply of American police brutality. Via Instapundit.

Apparently Democrats have to destroy America in order to save it:


It's science, damn it!


Okay, one more. This one is just funny--I think:


Spy versus spy.

Adults in a sea of children throwing tantrums.

Is the Navy fixing the troublesome Ford weapons elevators?

It's a mystery and we may never figure out the cause.

Poseidon is supposed to terrorize the West into inaction in the face of Russian aggression and tactical nuclear weapon use? Why? It sound like a propaganda weapon that is unlikely to work and if launched Lord knows where it would go. And what does its existence say about the reliability of Russia's ICBM force that is supposed to deter the West?

How is assuming people of color can't learn how to write to the standards of English grammar not a racist attitude!? The Woke Man's burden is truly heavy.

It will take years to smoothly pull 9,500 American troops out of Germany but it sounds like a number will move east and that the emphasis will be on maintaining Europe as a power projection platform.

INDOPACOM wants multi-year funding to build infrastructure to move, supply, and protect military forces throughout its vast region.

Putin beats his chest and flings poo. Naturally. And pointlessly.

The Only Winning Move is Not to Play

The Left confuses me.

Am I supposed to be outraged about the Notre Dame Fighting Irish mascot because it is a racist stereotype of Irish Catholics as violent brawlers who are quite likely also drunk (as the portrayal apparently used to show)?



Or should I be furious because the vast majority of students and faculty at the school aren't Irish or Catholic, and so therefore they are culturally appropriating the symbol?

The rules are so confusing! How can you win with such contradictions?!



Perhaps the Left would like to play a nice game of shut the ef up and leave the rest of us alone.

[PRE-PUBLICATION UPDATE: Oh my God, the issue has been brought up recently.]

Putin Storm Rising?

Putin's Russia is violating international law by building warships in illegally annexed Crimea. And amazingly, he claims to want a navy:

Russia's President Vladimir Putin pledged Monday to continue an ambitious program of building new warships on a trip to Crimea, which Russia has annexed from Ukraine.

Speaking during the keel-laying of two landing vessels at a shipyard in Kerch, Putin said that Russia needs a strong navy to defend its interests and "help maintain a strategic balance and global stability.”

The amphibious ships will be useful against non-NATO targets around the Black Sea. Against NATO there'd be a turkey shoot, I suspect; and heck, in time Ukraine might sink them, too.

The bigger problem--for Russia, not the West--with Putin's speech is about building a fleet. Although Putin's cited numbers of warships built are basically small coastal combatants rather than blue water ships.

Putin would be smart to simply mislead audiences about the size of Russia's fleet rather than actually build a blue water fleet because such an investment is foolish for a land power like Russia with huge land borders.

A Documentary On Original Sin and Not War

The Iraq War was justified and the American-led Coalition won the war but is now trying to hold the gain and expand the win.

This take by a documentary author is hogwash:

As with any situation, there are causes and effects going back a long way, but it seemed to me that the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi dictator, in 2003 was as good a place as any to start. The falling of that domino led to the destabilisation of the region, and that led to refugees arriving in Europe and that, in turn, was one of the factors in the rise of far-Right nationalism.

Ah! Bask in the glorious Middle East stability that the Iraq War upset. Connecting dots from the war to destabilization glosses over the inconvenient fact that there has been no stability in the Middle East!

And reporting the bloody obvious is no defense of this mistaken interpretation: "“War as an institution is pure evil,” he told me. “It’s pure evil.”" Duh. But one hopes that the reason you fight is good enough to justify the Hell that war is. And face it, not destroying the Saddam regime was a choice that would have had a lot of evil consequences.

Looking at any war in detail makes it easy to see any victory as a defeat. And looking at any post-war can provide all the ammunition you need to think the war was futile. There are a lot of problems in the Middle East that have nothing to do with America justifiably taking down a brutal dictator with a proven record of threatening the stability of the Middle East.

For those eager to declare defeat at any point over the last 17 years, it is kind of funny that they keep arguing we lost. If we lost at any of those points in the past, why haven't enemies ejected us from Iraq already? It can take time to fully judge victory or defeat.

And what would have happened to the glorious international community's ability to stop thug rulers from aggression and oppression if Saddam had been allowed to defy said international community's demand--following the UN-approved war in 1991--that he wast too untrustworthy to have WMD and that he must disarm and prove he had disarmed?

First of all, you want to argue that Iraqis should have been compelled to endure Saddam's cruel reign of terror passed through his sons, with WMD threatening the region in a Middle Eastern version of he North Korea problem as the price of a supposed happy center-left Europe free of refugees and migrants?

The migrants/refugees were the result of Obama's Libya War that was supposed to be an example of leading the Europeans from behind, but only opened the spigot to human trafficking from the south; and Turkey's decision to weaponize refugees to pressure Europe which flooded Europe from the east. And those were floods that the European elites led by Germany accepted to signal their virtue and only belatedly recognized as a mistake when the problems ceased to be borne only by their people and affected them.

And the complaints that the de-Baathification of Iraqi government and the disbanding of the Iraqi military caused the insurgency that supposedly led to the chain reaction endpoint of Far Right Europeans is false. We had to get rid of the senior echelon of the Sunni Arab oppressors and eliminate the military structure which had already self-disbanded during the war. Seriously, discard those so-called errors.

War is riddled with error. That is a feature and not a bug.

Honestly, I'm looking for the al Qaeda documentary on how they screwed up in Iraq.

As an aside, I'll bet the documentary maker interviewed Sunni Arabs out of proportion to their numbers. A common problem during the Iraq War was that Western reporters would interview educated Iraqis who could speak English--which meant a lot of complaints from the minority privileged class that benefited from Saddam's rule got to complain about their problems stemming from loss of status as if they represented all Iraqis.

And yes, as that "documentary" maker says, Iraqis still live in fear 17 years after their liberation from Saddam. That is the fault of Iran that wants Iraq as its vassal, Sunni jihadis who want a base of operations there, and corrupt Iraqis of all persuasions who cripple rule of law. Work the problems. There would be more to fear if Saddam ran things or if any of Iraq's current enemies win. America has given Iraq hope to break the cycle of fear and should not be damned for that.

This documentary is just about providing the faithful who always rejected the Iraq War with proof that nothing good could have or did come of it. That is ridiculous.

The Iraq War was a justified and victorious war, and I'm stunned the victory is so easily overlooked.

But the struggle for Iraq isn't over. Work the problem. We still need to defend what we won and win more.

One Day Russia Will Get Whacked By the Clue Bat

China can only distract the West with its Russian sacrificial pawn. Is Russia really fine with that?

All the talk of a Chinese-Russian alliance is overblown. Even if it fully develops, what then?

Hypothetically, China could forge an alliance with Russia, a nearby power with which it shares some common competitors. The problem is that Russia’s focus must be on its west and on the Caucasus. It has no ground force it could lend to China, nor does it have a naval force that would be decisive in its Pacific operations. A simultaneous strike westward by Russia and eastward by China is superficially interesting, but it would not divide U.S. and allied forces enough to take the pressure off of China.

On the surface it is a World War II situation of rogues in Europe and Asia combining in an alliance. But in reality, if this is an echo of World War II, Putin has the Mussolini role and not the Hitler role, or even the Tojo role.

Although truth be told none of them had a good end. But Mussolini did die first and in the most humiliating circumstances.

Russia needs America more than America needs Russia. It would be useful to America if Europe was secured from pointless Russian threats, but America would still need troops in continental Europe to keep it democratic and free, I'm sad to say. So America has no need to offer concessions to Russia to pry Russia from China.

At best, Russia's dalliance with China just puts Russia last on the list of Chinese victims whose defeats will restore lost Chinese conquests--assuming China has limits to their claims.

Russia should be begging America for our friendship. Russia needs America to keep China from eventually extorting Russia to regain China's lost imperial lands in Russia. When will Russia realize that and stop appeasing China?

Tic-Tac-No

America and the West are doing just fine so far, thank you.

I took three main points away from this article:

--Enemies may play by different rules defining victory than we do.

--America keeps losing wars.

--And Russia has won their war against Ukraine although we don't recognize it.

I've read things by the author before. I've cited his stuff (we'll see if it gets published). But I don't know what he's talking about here.

The first point is simply restating the warning about mirror imaging an enemy. I've certainly gone on about not assuming our rational is an enemy's rational. So I'm all on board that point. 100%. Agreed.

But using that as a springboard to condemn American wars and extol Russia's is kind of mystifying to me.

It is a combination of people unwilling to admit we won a war; and people willing to see an enemy victory no matter what:

Over the years, I've periodically addressed the issue of victory and the idea of "just what on Earth do you people expect victory to look like?" as a counter to complaints that we are losing or have lost wars.

I recently addressed the Iraq War as well as our other post-World War II conflicts.

And I recently ran across a quote from Jean-Paul Sartre that pretty much sums up the problem:

A victory described in detail is indistinguishable from defeat.

There's a lot of truth in that. What other endeavor assumes death and destruction as the cost of doing business even if you win?

Would World War II have been considered a win if subjected to today's standards of mistakes and post-war problems?

Which addresses my points as well as including the strange ability to see our foes achieve victory no matter what. Because our critics see us in detail and hardly know the broad brush strokes of foes.

This is the corollary to the problem of assessing the progress of a war during the war when you see all your side's flaws but the enemy is concealed by the fog of war:

Man cannot tell but Allah knows
How much the other side is hurt.

That's from Rudyard Kipling.

People who expect perfection annoy me.

But if you consider those two observations it all makes sense. Combined, they paint a picture of too harsh an assessment of Western wars and too generous an assessment of enemy wars. Because we can closely examine our wars while our enemies' wars remain shrouded in secrecy.

Take Iraq, which the author says was a disaster as described by Fiasco and The Gamble by Tom Ricks. Remember that Fiasco said America could not win in Iraq. When we actually did win on the battlefield, the author needed a follow-up--The Gamble--to explain why the fiasco was not in fact a fiasco. To this day I am amazed that so many people fail to see we won the Iraq War. It was enough of a victory that President Obama--who opposed the war--saw fit to launch Iraq War 2.0 in 2014 to salvage our win after the rise of ISIL. Every day Iraqis kill jihadis. And Iraqis attempt to oppose Iranian ambitions.

I have similar feelings about Afghanistan.

And I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the effects of time. Look at Europe in November 1946 for why you need time to judge victory or defeat. Heck, in my adult lifetime I've gone from seeing the Korean War as a draw to seeing it as a victory because as time passed North Korea weakened while South Korea moved from an autocracy to a democratic and prosperous state. Even if you don't agree with me that Iraq right now is a win, perhaps you will change your mind over time, too.

Now let's look at Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was a two-parter, and other wars for a bonus:

Crimea was a victory. Although Russia's credit is reduced by the recently revealed information that we told the new Ukraine government not to resist the Crimean takeover. I had no idea how accurate my description of Russian hybrid warfare as essentially Russia invading a country, Russia denying they are invading a country, and the West going along with the fiction was. [And let me add the unique factors that don't seem like things that can be applied to other targets.]

But how is the Donbas a victory? The very fact that Russia relied on irregulars rather than their own military reveals weaknesses. And the war drags on. A "quagmire" you might say, with Russia stalemated and paying a price under sanctions for holding the territory. And what is "insurgent" about a war that has "insurgents" using more tanks that Britain, France, and Germany deploy to their frontline units? These "insurgents" have formed units and hold territory along a frontline with the assistance of Russian battalion tactical groups that officially don't fight inside Ukraine! No American achievement on this scale would be counted a victory.

As for Syria, the multi-war rages with much of Syria out of Assad's control even after the defeat of the bulk of ISIL in Syria; and Russia, while a major factor, is in no way the most influential outside player involved there. Iran, Turkey, America, and even sub-state Hezbollah vie for that title. And if Assad goes down, Russia's investment is lost. At best it is an incomplete victory although Russian military performance has been adequate. But don't mention the smoking hulk of a crippled carrier that figuratively had to be put up on cement blocks for Russia to pretend to use if you don't want to tarnish the record.

We're not to speak of the clusterfucks of the Russo-Georgia War or the first Chechnya war, eh? Or even the incomplete nature of the brutal second one?

If Russia is actually happy with their Donbas expedition, why didn't Russia do the same in the Crimea rather than rapidly take it over? I mean, if Russia has so many advantages in that so-called "frozen" conflict, why not choose to enjoy that in the Crimea, too?

Face it, Crimea was a rapid and well run conventional--if subliminal, because Russia denied they invaded and the West went along with that fiction--conquest against a country in chaos from a revolution. This was no proxy invasion. Russian troops took it over with a thin covering of AstroTurf secessionists.

Russia got greedy and tried the same in the Donbas. But they faced Ukrainian resistance and could not complete the conquest. There has been stalemate and Western sanctions to punish Russia. The idea that the Russians intended this stalemate rather than hoping for another quick won is ludicrous, as I argued in this post:

This Russian approach is all based on Russian conventional weakness (compared to America-against their western neighbors Russia has the edge). Tell me that Russia wouldn't have preferred to hit the Donbas hard and win fast. The West got over the stripping of Georgian territories in 2008 because the war was over fast. The West seems to be ignoring the Russian conquest of Crimea and no doubt would have forgotten about it almost as quickly, given all the excuses still being deployed in the West to justify Russian aggression.

That's the way it works. The USSR subdued Hungary and Czechoslovakia quickly. We could do nothing. The USSR failed to subdue Afghanistan and eventually we made them pay a price for fighting there.

Russia should have invaded the Donbas while they took Crimea if they had the capability and gotten it done fast--or refrained from the attempt, being satisfied with the well-executed seizure of Crimea.

Russia is a threat because it can generate superior power in the short run against targets on their western borders. But given time, NATO can generate superior power to crush them in conventional battle. Don't give Russia and Putin more credit than they deserve.

Still, while the author's criticism goes too far, I'd rather have a tradition of examining our wars in order to do better than have a military culture that suppresses criticism.