In short, President Bush may well have blown it. If there is still time to strike a deal, he has to strike one very soon and not just ask the Chinese to persuade Kim to back down. As is, Bush has waited so long to get serious that an accord—if one were reached—will cost us a lot more than it would have a year or two ago. There are only three alternatives to diplomacy, though, and they are grimmer still. One is to launch a war that nobody in the region would tolerate and that we lack the resources to wage. Another is to apply sanctions in order to isolate North Korea, a country that is already, by its leader's choice, the most isolated on earth. The third is to live with the fact that the world's last totalitarian has joined the league of nuclear powers.
Blown it? North Korea seems bound and determined to go nuclear and we have blown it? The idea that the peaceful North Koreans started on a crash nuclear program during President Bush's first inauguration is just ludicrous. I am amazed that Kaplan thinks that talking and coming to an agreement will be better than any of the options he lists. He truly can't see that talking for the purpose of coming to an agreement could make things worse.
Talking to the Pillsbury Nuke Boy assumes some level of conversational ability on both sides and assumes that talking can lead to something that will benefit us. North Korea does not seem like it wants to talk. Some think that the North Koreans just want to blackmail the West into sending cash. While this is true to a certain extent, as the 1994 Agreed Framework shows, accepting Western money is not incompatible with pursuing nukes.
Face it, the North Koreans are just nuts. The idea that they need nuclear weapons to deter our invasion is plain stupid. If this is a real worry, why didn't we invade at any time between 1953 and 1999? If you want to insist that only the current administration inspired this thinking in Pyongyang, why did the North start its program long before 2000? And why did they start their cheating after the 1994 agreement. Any why, further, did the North Koreans even feel the need to start their program prior to that agreement?
North Korea's deterrent is and always has been their ability to destroy Seoul with conventional weapons from their positions close by north of the DMZ.
North Korea's level of paranoia about an invasion we have neither the ability nor inclination to carry out absent a serious threat to our country from North Korea means we can never soothe their twitchy nerves. If we really want to invade them, the North Koreans will conclude that of course we'll promise to not invade--what would one expect from a hegemonist power intent on destroying that communist utopia of North Korea? Would a country intent on conquest get squeemish over a lie? No matter how much we bribe North Korea, the North Koreans will inevitably cheat and attempt to retain a nuclear deterrent against us.
Their statement is a fascinating rant of a quite insane regime. Let me reprint it in full:
The second-term Bush administration's intention to antagonize the DPRK and isolate and stifle it at any cost has become quite clear.
As we have clarified more than once, we justly urged the US to renounce its hostile policy toward the DPRK whose aim was to seek the latter's "regime change" and switch its policy to that of peaceful co-existence between the two countries. We have closely followed with patience what policy the second-term Bush regime would shape after clarifying the stand that in that case it would be possible to solve the nuclear issue, too.
However, the administration turned down our just request and adopted it as its policy not to co-exist with the DPRK through the president's inaugural address and the state of the union address and the speech made by the secretary of State at the Congress hearing to get its approval, etc.
The remarks made by senior officials of the administration clarifying the official political stance of the US contained no word showing any willingness to co-exist with the DPRK or make a switchover in its policy toward it.
On the contrary, they have declared it as their final goal to terminate the tyranny, defined the DPRK, too, as an "outpost of tyranny" and blustered that they would not rule out the use of force when necessary.
And they pledged to build a world based on the US view on value through the "spread of American style liberty and democracy."
The true intention of the second-term Bush administration is not only to further its policy to isolate and stifle the DPRK pursued by the first-term office but to escalate it. As seen above, the US has declared a new ideological stand-off aimed at a "regime change" in the DPRK while talking much about "peaceful and diplomatic solution" to the nuclear issue and the "resumption of the six-party talks" in a bid to mislead the world public opinion.
This is nothing but a far-fetched logic of gangsters as it is a good example fully revealing the wicked nature and brazen-faced double-dealing tactics of the U.S. as a master hand at plot-breeding and deception.
The DPRK has clarified its stand that it would not pursue anti-Americanism and treat the US as a friendly nation if it neither slanders the political system in the DPRK nor interferes in its internal affairs. It has since made every possible effort to settle the nuclear issue and improve the bilateral relations.
However, the US interpreted this as a sign of weakness, defiled the dignified political system in the DPRK chosen by its people and wantonly interfered in its internal affairs. The US, turning down the DPRK's request to roll back its anti-DPRK hostile policy, a major stumbling block in the way of settling the nuclear issue, treated it as an enemy and, not content with this, totally rejected it, terming it "tyranny." This deprived the DPRK of any justification to negotiate with the U.S. and participate in the six-party talks.Is it not self-contradictory and unreasonable for the US to urge the DPRK to come out to the talks while negating its dialogue partner? This is the height of impudence.
The US now foolishly claims to stand by the people in the DPRK while negating the government chosen by the people themselves. We advise the US to negotiate with dealers in peasant markets it claims they are to its liking or with representatives of "the organization of north Korean defectors" on its payroll if it wishes to hold talks.
Japan is now persistently pursuing its hostile policy toward the DPRK, toeing the US line. Moreover, it fabricated the issue of false remains over the "abduction issue" that had already been settled in a bid to nullify the DPRK-Japan Pyongyang Declaration and stop any process to normalize diplomatic relations with the DPRK. How can we sit at the negotiating table with such a party?
It is the trend of the new century and wish of humankind to go in for peace, co-existence and prosperity irrespective of differing ideology, system and religious belief.
It is by no means fortuitous that the world people raise their voices cursing and censuring the Bush administration as a group pursuing tyranny prompted by its extreme misanthropy, swimming against such trend of the world.
We have shown utmost magnanimity and patience for the past four years since the first Bush administration swore in.
We can not spend another four years as we did in the past four years and there is no need for us to repeat what we did in those years.
The DPRK Foreign Ministry clarifies as following to cope with the grave situation created by the US hostile policy toward the DPRK:
First. We have wanted the six-party talks but we are compelled to suspend our participation in the talks for an indefinite period till we have recognized that there is justification for us to attend the talks and there are ample conditions and atmosphere to expect positive results from the talks.
The present deadlock of the six-party talks is attributable to the US hostile policy toward the DPRK.
There is no justification for us to participate in the six-party talks again given that the Bush administration termed the DPRK, a dialogue partner, an "outpost of tyranny", putting into the shade the hostile policy, and totally negated it.
Second. The US disclosed its attempt to topple the political system in the DPRK at any cost, threatening it with a nuclear stick. This compels us to take a measure to bolster its nuclear weapons arsenal in order to protect the ideology, system, freedom and democracy chosen by its people.
It is the spirit of the Korean people true to the Songun politics to respond to good faith and the use of force in kind.
We had already taken the resolute action of pulling out of the NPT and have manufactured nukes for self-defence to cope with the Bush administration's evermore undisguised policy to isolate and stifle the DPRK.
Its nuclear weapons will remain nuclear deterrent for self-defence under any circumstances. The present reality proves that only powerful strength can protect justice and truth.
The US evermore reckless moves and attempt to attack the DPRK only reinforce its pride of having already consolidated the single-minded unity of the army and people and increased the capability for self-defence under the uplifted banner of Songun. The DPRK's principled stand to solve the issue through dialogue and negotiations and its ultimate goal to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula remain unchanged.
This is some world-class cuckoo work.
They repeatedly toss around terms like inflicting a "sea of fire" and yet when they don't hear some secret word in a couple speeches they see dire warnings. We say that we do not plan to invade yet North Korea does not hear those words. They just see that we don't like them and assume the worst. Excuse me, but North Korea doesn't even recognize South Korea as legitimate! Gangsters? Peasant markets? Mysanthropy? What the F? (Or this just quoting Michael Moore films?) They think abducting Japanese citizens was no big deal? Just how are we supposed to negotiate with a regime that puts something like this out to the world?
It is bad enough to hear "we need to talk" from a level-headed girl friend. But when some psycho basketcase says that to you? Back out of the room slowly. While talking, of course, since you don't want to provoke this. But definitely beware.
I find the talking that the North Korean regime finds it must do with their own people more illuminating. Apparently the socialist masses need a little pep talk:
Pyongyang's state-run daily newspaper Rodong Sinmun allotted the whole front page of its Saturday edition to an editorial saying "the single-minded unity serves as the strongest weapon," said the official news agency KCNA.
"At a time like today, when the situation gets tense, no task is more important than to strengthen our single-minded unity," the editorial said.
Minju Joson, another state-run daily, said that "devotedly protecting the leader is our life and soul."
Interesting, eh?
So I guess we can talk. But I want to talk to keep the North Koreans from noticing that they are collapsing and not in order to send significant aid to save that nutball regime. We just need to give that armed psychiatric ward the idea that maybe we can be persuaded to give them aid with no real concessions on their part. We need to buy time. We can't purchase security from the North Koreans but we can buy time to gain that security.
And the signs of collapse are coming faster. We need to be on guard when the wheels come off the Pillsbury Nuke Boy's tricycle.
