We seem to be violating some basic terms of negotiating by ruling out things that Russia should fear if they don't agree to reasonable terms for ending Russia's war on Ukraine for good. But I admit that the image for diplomatic purposes can be different than the terms of a deal, whether that is America's military role in NATO or a peace deal in the Winter War of 2022.
Well of course Europe isn't the highest priority theater:
In just one speech by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week, the most powerful member of NATO has thrown the world’s biggest military alliance into disarray, raising troubling questions about America’s commitment to European security.
Hegseth told almost 50 of Ukraine ’s Western backers on Wednesday that he had joined their meeting “to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe.”
It's the economy-of-force theater. It long has been. We've been reducing forces in Europe since we won the Cold War, excepting a small bump since Russia invaded Ukraine on a large scale in 2022. Say, here's the visual:
And affordably preserving the shield that Europe is for America with so many fewer troops requires keeping Russia as far east as possible.
Further, this overly open declaration of strategic reality will be exaggerated to fuel the European Union objective to erase American influence over Europe through NATO. The EU believes it should never let a faux crisis go to waste. Arghh!
That said, we should not have given up negotiating assets--ruling out NATO membership for Ukraine, ruling out a NATO role to guarantee a "peace" deal, and minimizing the need for American troops in Europe or even Ukraine--before we even talk to Russia about ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Sure, we don't want to be too tied down in Europe. And Russia surely knows that. But make Russia give concessions to get our concessions! Don't kneel before Russia bearing gifts! If we do, Russia will demand more.
That is not the Art of the Ukraine Deal. We have to be smarter if we want to provide peace to keep Europe as an economy-of-force front rather than just get a period of Russia reloading to begin another war.
Although of course I recognize the need to at least appear to Russians as an honest broker so any deal doesn't look like America dictating terms. So I don't take administration language that doesn't scream "Hitler!!" at Putin as a sign that American policy is pro-Putin. Ditto on the need to appear willing to walk away to get our European NATO allies to do more.
So we'll see. I withhold judgment until I see details when diplomacy--with Russia and with our NATO allies--unfolds.
UPDATE: Via Instapundit, just calm the ef down and stop letting your fears do your thinking.
Sound advice that I believe I laid out above despite my own worries.
UPDATE: I really don't understand why Trump said Ukraine started the war or why he said Zelensky is not legitimate without a new election.
Putin ordered the invasion. And if you say Ukraine provoked it by not wanting Russia to dominate it, I don't know what to say.
And Ukraine's laws provide for the suspension of elections during a state of emergency, which the invasion certainly is. Obviously, free elections are good. But maybe talk to Putin about that first.
Unless Trump is really playing the part of being nice to Russia to get Russia to give concessions, I have no explanation. We'll see.
UPDATE: America must exploit Russia's growing weaknesses.
UPDATE: It would be brilliant if the Trump-Zelensky "feud"
has been staged to lull Russia. Trump hasn't frozen military aid and
assistance, after all. Perhaps it is to feed red meat to conservatives who oppose
aiding Ukraine. Or scare Europeans into helping Ukraine more. Or maybe it is what it appears. Dunno.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it.
