Russia is seeking to rebuild its military to prepare for conflict before 2030, but the slaughter of its ground forces over nearly three years of the ongoing Winter War of 2022 makes Russians less than eager to die for their country in a foreign land. If Putin does expand his military, who will it fight? I'm tired of thinking Russia might need an "exit ramp" out of the war. That train pulled out of the station by the end of 2022, as far as I'm concerned. Russia needs to be defeated in Ukraine. Or there will be another war that Russia starts, somewhere, and sooner than we hope.
Strategypage addresses Russian ambitions to rebuild its military:
Russia is preparing its combat forces for battles that might or might not occur between now and 2030. Russian forces are still locked in combat with Ukrainians and leader Vladimir Putin is vague about how and when this war will end. The new American president wants to end the war quickly but the Russians are not responding.
The Russians hope their silence will provoke Western concessions before ever sitting down across a table. Our response should be silence. And more weapons for Ukraine. Because Strategypage also notes this:
What Russia is doing is building a lot more weapons and trying to recruit more troops. Few Russian men are willing to serve in the military, despite high pay and large payments when they agree to enlist. Potential Russian recruits know that going to Ukraine is often a death sentence. They know this because so many Russian soldiers have come back in coffins or not at all. The government makes large payments to families of dead soldiers. Russian military age men are reluctant to join the military, even with the financial incentives. Over a million military age men have left the country and those still in Russia avoid the recruiters, who often visit workplaces to arrest men who refused to cooperate with recruiters.
Ukraine is suffering from an infantry shortage. But Russia clearly has problems, too:
There are still about 200,000 Russian troops in Ukraine and most are on the defensive. Ukraine keeps its casualties down by using its armed and camera- equipped drones for most of the fighting. Currently about 90 percent of Russian casualties are caused by Ukrainian drones.
Russia claws forward because Ukraine's drones don't hold ground. But Russia's "human wave" attacks are generally done in small groups. This isn't the "human wave" assault of your imagination of past massed assaults by armies that truly had no practical limits on manpower and didn't care about losses.
With only 200,000 Russian troops inside Ukraine, the idea that Russia can expend men without worry is clearly wrong. Russia wants to appear that way, but I suspect Putin has constructed a Potemkin Horde to bluff his way to a victory. And Russian talk of rebuilding its military is all about convincing the West that Russia must be unstoppable now if Russia is already planning for the next war.
I also suspect that Trump's talk of Putin caring about ending the bloodshed of the war and Trump's claim of "millions" of deaths rather than the hundreds of thousands in reality are an attempt to push past Putin's censorship that prevents the people of Russia from knowing about the high costs of the war they are waging.
Despite years of warnings, it doesn't sound like America intends to abandon Ukraine:
Vance stated during a press conference following the meeting that the United States remains committed to ending the war and achieving a "durable, lasting peace" in Ukraine and not the "kind of peace that's going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the road."But I'll wait to see the Definitions Section, of course.
We should make sure Russia loses this war so a next foreign war is less likely.
But yeah, at this point I would consider a deal that concedes Russian control of pre-2022 occupied territory in parts of the Donbas and Crimea; and NATO strengthening of Ukraine's ability to defeat Russia if Russia attacks again--including battling Ukrainian corruption--as a victory for the West. Face it, after three years of bloodshed and suffering, Ukrainians won't die to get 2014 borders. Hell, Ukrainians might accept a ceasefire-in-place. Ideally, a deal based on the pre-war line of control could include making Russia quietly (and deniably) pay to rebuild Ukraine.* Putin's control of the state's security apparatus and media will allow him to boast of this great achievement. And who will dispute him?
*When I wrote that post, Russia's offensive had basically culminated. Their ground forces were shattered. I wrongly hoped Ukraine had reserves to launch a counteroffensive. As weeks and then months passed without a counteroffensive I began to worry that Russia was getting the most valuable commodity in war--time. Russia got the time to recover and prepare, and the much-delayed and openly telegraphed Ukrainian counteroffensive failed in summer 2023. So we have what we have.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
