Maintaining the Insurance Policy in Europe

America has an interest in keeping Europe a free continent of allies. But yes, the Russian threat is reduced and farther east. So we don't need nearly as much as we did in the Cold War. Especially as Europeans arm up in response to Russia's renewed aggression. 

While there are no proposals on reductions, the post-invasion surge of American troops to Europe could end. If so, this would be good: 

The U.S. Pentagon should retain key military equipment in Europe to deter Russia even as Washington prepares to draw down the number of troops it keeps stationed on the continent, Finland's president told POLITICO on Thursday.

My original proposal was prescient and fulfilled by more recent American deployments. But for a while we went backwards until Russia's imperial ambitions could no longer be ignored.

This call to reduce America's role in NATO by quoting Eisenhower that if our troops were still in Europe in another decade we have lost is just wrong. It took longer. But yes, we won. 

While INDOPACOM is the priority theater, Europe is still a valuable defensive buffer despite the lesser threat than during the Cold War; and worthy of commitment as an economy-of force-theater. And as a staging area for reacting to threats in an arc of crisis. 

Europe isn't America's burden. It's our shield. Of course, I still think the backbone of an Army corps should be based in Europe, as I wrote about in Military Review.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: The map is from that last link. But note that CENTCOM now only has Egypt from the African continent under its area of responsibility; and Israel is now part of CENTCOM. Also, AFRICOM didn't exist back then.

Air Defense Gets Budget Weapons

Laser-guided 70mm rockets are now the Air Force's primary anti-drone weapon in CENTCOM. Build the A-Whacks!

Excellent:

Laser-guided 70mm Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II) rockets have become the U.S. Air Force’s principal air-to-air weapon against drone threats in the Middle East. Air Force F-16 Vipers in the region first began using the rockets operationally in the anti-role last year, which TWZ was first to report, and that capability has now been extended to the F-15E Strike Eagle and A-10 Warthog.

I'm still thinking building the A-Whacks would add volume and loiter time to the mission.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Air Force photo from the article.

Are China's Super Carriers Proof They Seek No War?

China is advancing its carrier capabilities. Is this a sign China does not seek war with America and its allies?

This is apparently significant in a scary way:

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has demonstrated its ability to launch and recover aircraft from its first catapult-equipped aircraft carrier, the Fujian. Official imagery released by the PLAN today confirms that the new J-35 naval stealth fighters and KJ-600 airborne early warning and control aircraft are carrying out carrier trials, something that had not been seen until now. 

This is what we see in action as part of China's major investment to build and use super carriers. 

Years ago I said I almost felt sorry for China pursuing aircraft carriers given carrier vulnerability. I thought their first weak carriers would serve best as a distraction for the U.S. Navy as the PLA conquered Taiwan.

Since China has been accelerating its global trade network, I've wondered if China's aircraft carriers were really meant for peacetime power projection rather than sea control in a contest with the United States and its allies.

Heck, the fleet might be an expensive bauble to bolster the image of the Chinese Communist Party's power.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Picture from the article. 

Their Faith is Misplaced

Leave talking to China to the diplomats. Mil-to-mil contacts with the PLA will only erase the mystery that might invoke fear and give the PLA the idea that they understand how to defeat us.

Not again:

The bipartisan delegation [visiting China], which included three members of the House Armed Services Committee, called on the U.S. and China’s militaries to talk more regularly to avoid veering into conflict[.]

The longstanding delusion persists. Xi Jinping will only learn how to defeat the United States with these military-to-military contacts. Even if the PLA wrongly thinks it can defeat America, bad things happen.

Let the diplomats do the talking. That's actually their job, with adult supervision, of course. The military's job is to stand behind the diplomats grimly cleaning its firearms and sharpening its blades--not providing that level of transparency.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

China Turns the Inscrutable Dial to 11

The United States believes Xi Jinping ordered the People's Liberation Army to be ready for a war over Taiwan by 2027. Has the PLA already told Xi it has failed?

This is interesting:

The Chinese government has instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to develop a “force system” that can achieve strategic political aims “short of war.” In other words, be so strong and cunning that the PLA can convince an opponent to either comply or surrender to Beijing’s demands. 

The PLA now uses the term “strategic weishe.” According to a recent Marine Corps University publication, the direction to achieve “strategic weishe” comes from guidance issued during the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress (2022). Achieving strategic weishe entails fielding high-quality combat forces and linking (or integrating) all domains of warfare (for example, propaganda, media war linked to economic coercion, and, presumably, staging combat forces).

Is this just a restating of Chinese efforts since the 1970s, an increased level of integration, or an admission that China is unlikely to have the military power to win a war over Taiwan by 2027?

I mean, sure, winning without a war is nice work--if you can get it. But why didn't China's rulers with their near-genetic long-range planning ability establish this strategic weishe objective decades ago rather than apparently aim for the ability to win a war? All of a sudden--without planning for it--the PLA is inadequate?

Maybe that PLA reality is a recent surprise. 

Harnessing all elements of national power to achieve objectives is nothing new. But it just feels like a downgrading of military power just as American "integrated deterrence" policy seemed. 

Or maybe it is just Westerners observing patience and caution. And interpreting it as deep planning. 

UPDATE: Or maybe the war the PLA was told to get ready to wage is north of China. 

UPDATE: Is it wrong that I kick myself for not thinking of "When You Weishe Upon a Red Star" for the title? Let it go, TDR. Let it go.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Pivots

The Russians appear to be shifting units away from the Pokrovsk region in order to reinforce some recent successes entering the Dnipropetrovsk province and push west. 

ISW reported the shift of troops that also simplifies Russian command and control by unmingling units from different combined arms armies. But the purpose is unclear:

The reason for the redeployment of elements of the 41st CAA is unclear at this time. The area east and south of Novopavlivka has been relatively less active recently compared to other areas of the front that Russia is prioritizing, although a Ukrainian military source suggested that Russian forces recently intensified the tempo of attacks in the area.[33] The Russian military command may be redeploying 41st CAA elements to allow them to rest and reconstitute away from more active sectors like the area near Pokrovsk. The redeployments may alternatively indicate that the Russian military command intends to intensify offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction. Russian forces may aim to collapse the Ukrainian salient near Novopavlivka, level the frontline, and reduce the threat of Ukrainian counterattacks on Russia’s flanks in the area. An intensification of Russian offensive operations near Novopavlivka would likely also aim to generate informational effects about deeper Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russian military command may have reduced the force grouping south of Pokrovsk as it intends to deprioritize frontal assaults on Pokrovsk itself from the south, choosing instead to focus on efforts to envelop Pokrovsk from the north.

If Russia needs to rest units, does this mean Ukraine has some opportunities to counter-attack? But based on past reports of a Russian fall offensive, it seems more likely that Russia intends to push through Novopavlika. 

Otherwise, strategic warfare in the air continues with both sides escalating drone and missile attacks behind enemy lines. Ukraine is striking deeper, too, with its focus on oil targets seemingly taking a bite out of Russia's economy. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Keep in mind that as some hyper-ventilated over the claim America was abandoning Ukraine, this type of intelligence sharing was ongoing at a more tactical level:

American and Ukrainian officials speaking to the Financial Times have reported that the United States has been playing a key role in the ongoing large scale attacks on Russian energy facilities being launched from Ukraine. 

If you had been reading my work, you would have known better.

Of course, I've read China is helping with Russian targeting inside Ukraine. 

UPDATE (Wednesday): American weapons continue to flow to Ukraine--but not as American aid: 

United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said “firepower” is coming to Ukraine through European nations’ purchases of US weapons, but whether that includes American-made Tomahawk missiles is still not clear.

I said we'd find a way. But instead of breathing, too many simply panicked. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Death of Infantry

In case you missed it on Substack: Bringing in Traditional Air Power to Defeat Drone Swarm Attacks

In case you missed it on Substack: Ship Defense With Drones

In case you missed it on Substack: Teach Them Properly

China-backed Myanmar: "A third of the population is not getting enough food and faces starvation. Over five million children can no longer attend school. The military government is concentrating on staying in power[...]" But it is nearly impossible to blame Israel, so the sainted international community doesn't care.

It is purportedly a Chinese curse to "be careful of what you wish for because you might get it": "China is believed to have developed a plan to eliminate or greatly reduce Western interests in the Middle East and allow China to step in as the new foreign influence." 

So what? "For the first time in decades, the next commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa will wear fewer stars on his shoulders than his U.S. military counterparts in the theater." If the most powerful air force in NATO was led by a second lieutenant, that officer would carry weight.

A new type of MLRS: "A company in China recently unveiled a containerized system it says is capable of quickly launching and recovering thousands of small quadcopter-type drones at the touch of a button."  

Aerial power projection: "A renewed emphasis on fielding next-gen air refueler by the mid-2030s has left Boeing’s KC-46 Pegasus as the only tanker that can readily meet the Air Force’s tanker needs[.]" 

I doubt we will attack Venezuela's military. Would Venezuela attack our assets if our missiles hit non-state enemies inside Venezuela? "the prospects of some kind of confrontation between the U.S. military and Venezuela are rising[.]" I still think Hezbollah could be the real target, with drug cartel overlap. 

Speculations on China's J-50 stealth plane. 

Seriously? The locals are in secession territory. Next up, a judge ruling federal troops can't go to the schoolhouse doors. It's an actual insurrection.The worst of the 1970s wasn't bell bottom pants and disco, you know. Let's not make things worse now. We have enough foreign problems. Tips to Instapundit.

Mountain upheaval. 

Upgrading the Phalanx CIWS.  

I have no problem with a whole-of-government effort to ensure our national defense. But I would hope that Joint Force Quarterly would focus on the military using its armed forces jointly as the pointy stick part of the whole-of-government approach that is above the Pentagon's pay grade.

Navy surface ships need more auto-cannons, technology to improve them, more drones, and better electronic warfare for a more robust air defense. Endorsed. But I don't know how small USVs can sail with the fleet. And what about small suicide drones as a CIWS?

To be fair, while Germans vowed "never again" after 1945, in recent decades Germany imported people who are of the "one more time" view: "Germany has seen 'increasing hate and violence' against Jewish people since the October 7, 2023, attacks[.]" 

Is Macron's political future over? Well, he might get dumped upstairs to the EU safety net, I suppose. 

European leaders are unhappy that certain Czech people have spoken at the polls. 

Without adequate protection and counter-measures, they are a display of targets and not of force: "American M1A2 Abrams and British Challenger 2 main battle tanks stood side by side this week at Camp Tapa, Estonia, in a public display meant as much for Moscow as for local audiences[.]" 

I sure hope our enemies are in worse shape: "The U.S. Navy’s maintainers have had to strip submarines and fighter jets for spare parts to repair other planes and subs, a government watchdog found." 

Iran may want to buy dozens of Russian Su-35s, but the question is whether Russia can deliver them. I suspect the "leak" was deliberate to exaggerate Russian production and Iran's military rebuilding.

The Navy is seeking repair capabilities in Singapore.

The truth is ... on or about ... there?

Huh: "A Russian fiber-optic-controlled first-person view (FPV) drone made a precision strike within the city of Kramatorsk for the first time on Sunday[.]" Wire-guided drones can't really patrol. But they do function as Super Saggers, no?

The idea that Bangladesh needs advanced fighters is insane.  

Somebody worries about losing oil imports: "China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost crude stockpiles[.]" Why?

Ukraine retains a drone advantage over Russia. 

The XM204 smart top-attack land mine. 

Iran has bad options after its losses in the last two years. The author says the snapback sanctions are "crippling." We'll see. But I was absolutely wrong in my belief that Russia and China would challenge snapback provisions as a violation of UN rules. As for Iran's options? I think one option is overlooked. 

Good Lord! Completely ending drug smuggling would not have any effect on how Mexico's cartels have latched on to Mexican oil imports and exports with a complicit Mexican government. One day my worry will come true unless something changes. Another reason Hezbollah is the real target?

The Syrian Islamist government has agreed to a ceasefire with the Kurds. Doesn't sound like this is anything more than a chance to reload.

Indeed: "Information collected by Five Eyes nations suggests China will have 70 ocean going ferries capable of supporting a sealift operation to invade Taiwan by the end of 2026." It eventually adds up.

Russia is adding tanks to the National Guard, Putin's regime protection force. Makes sense if Putin wants to win a civil war.

I personally had riot control training in the ARNG. This interpretation of what is going on is just wrong: "Trump envisages a country where armed soldiers patrol U.S. streets." If state and local governments provided law and order, there would be no need to jump-start that with federal forces.

A European 2.75" rocket optimized for anti-drone work with a proximity fuse and airburst warhead. It's a flying shotgun. And being used by Ukraine.

Next up, war conscription and press gangs: "Russian regions are dramatically increasing the amount of money they pay to new military recruits as analysts say “ideological” recruitment campaigns are no longer enough to motivate people to fight in Ukraine." 

Friends in need? "The U.K. Carrier Strike Group and the Indian Navy Vikrant Carrier Strike Group are conducting a joint exercise for the first time, operating together in the Western Indian Ocean." 

Changes to AUKUS and Taiwan defense ties? Hopefully good changes.

Did hitting Iran's nuclear infrastructure set back Iran's nuclear weapons drive by six months, requiring more attacks? I sure hope the mullah regime falls first.

Take your time. Why hurry? "Currently the United States is producing 40,000 155mm artillery shells a month, not the planned 100,000. That won’t happen until sometime in 2026."  Was the message from the Winter War of 2022 not FLASH OVERRIDE priority?

Applying the clue bat to senior military leadership so the lower ranks can see it. 

Shotguns are proving to be effective drone defense weapons. Why couldn't a vehicle Active Protection System have a shotgun, too, for drone defense? Or could a shotgun be effective for all APS targets? 

Japan posts a Keep Off the Grass sign at sea. 

Is America ignoring signs that China is preparing to initiate war?

Optimizing (badly) the Marine Corps for an anti-ship mission in the western Pacific de-fangs the Marines for a variety of global missions. Why wasn't the Navy Expeditionary Combat Command tapped for anti-ship batteries?

Is China really under pressure to attack Taiwan before its opportunity passes? First, you have to get past the arguments that China can't invade Taiwan now. Then you have to consider whether China reacts by picking on an easier target. And then consider if China won't be patient and try for a new opportunity. 

Eritrean-Ethiopian tensions flare. Uh oh. 

I think this analysis over-states the genius of how Russia is adapting to the conditions of the Winter War of 2022 and the state of its ground forces. At least it is more serious than this farcical praise.

Italy reaches out to Africa. Better Italy than Russia filling the vacuum being left by France.

New small drones revive interest in old heavy machine guns. 

A defense pact between the three Baltic states and Poland is a good idea given that the region is NATO's main front. But saying it should be instead of NATO is nonsense, sounding like an EU talking point to weaken and replace NATO. And what about Poland joining JEF?

Lord knows who will be prime minister of France by the time this posts. 

The Army is the backbone of joint logistics to the shooters: "The Flying Ship Company (FSC), a pioneer in autonomous wing-in-ground-effect (WIG) cargo logistics, has been selected as a winner in the U.S. Army xTechSearch 9 Competition in the Contested Logistics and Sustainment technical domain." 

Rygge Air Station: "The U.S. military is moving ahead on development of a Norwegian airfield into a place where American and allied forces can be deployed in a crisis. 

But still a strong majority: "Europeans are less inclined to support defense spending increases than they were a year and a half ago[.]"

Ripples from 1982. 

The mullahs that did not bark in the night. I always thought hyperventilating predictions of doom were meant to protect Iran. 

The Army is getting the prototype for a 6.4mm LICC rifle: "The Next Generation Squad Weapons program that birthed those weapons was driven heavily by the same concerns about range as LICC, as well as improvements in adversary body armor." Related thoughts from me on the USNI Blog.

Rejecting silver bullets preaches to the TDR choir: "FPVs matter and have a role to play, but they should not dominate how defense leaders and the policymaking community should think about this war." Other capabilities may be better than what the FPVs show is possible. And it remains a combined arms fight.

LOL. The Yemeni coast guard will simply become a more coveted assignment because of increased corruption opportunities to look the other way--or even carry the contraband they are supposed to stop. 

Gas! Gas! Gas! Beard. Beard? Beard!!

The Philippines exercises with allied and partner navies in the path of China's aggression.

If China thinks it is worth it to help Russia's subliminal "shadow war" against Europe, America should appreciate the need to help defend Europe. As we hope to split Russia from China, don't do their work and split America from Europe.

The Sainted International Community® has selective concern: "While the media obsesses over Israel, Nigerian Islamists continue their years-long killing spree." No doubt, Christian existence is needlessly provocative to Islamists.

Russia's navy is crippled by corruption. I wonder if sailors who thought themselves immune from ground combat will mutiny. 

If Americans believed this in 1860, the Confederate States of America would still be a thing: "Most Americans believe the president should only deploy service members to face external threats[.]" I swore an oath to defend against enemies foreign and domestic. No power to arrest, of course.

Very good: "The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) dispatched a total of 15 cutters and offshore vessels early Tuesday to resupply and escort fishermen operating in the vicinity of the Scarborough and Sabina shoals[.]"

The Navy's schedule for celebrating its 250th anniversary (that officially takes place Monday). 

Finland to build four icebreakers for the U.S. Coast Guard. 

Launching Switchblade suicide drones from the Abrams. 

BOOM: "Japan continues to work toward enhancing its long-range cruise missile capability, with contracts issued for a new standoff capability for its submarine fleet, as well as improved anti-ship missiles for its destroyers." 

Italy will soon reach the old NATO goal of 2% of GDP defense spending. But as I always advise, the Definitions Section changes are key to meeting the old goal. 

When I've mentioned that information is the key to battlefield success rather than just the drones that exploit that, this is what I meant: "Two Royal Air Force aircraft have carried out extensive surveillance flights along NATO’s eastern frontier, covering the entire stretch from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea"

This is absolutely needed: "Taiwan will accelerate the building of a “Taiwan Shield” or “T-Dome” air defense system in the face of the military threat from China[.]" 

Putin reads from the "Well, Duh" files: " President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia’s air defense were to blame for downing an Azerbaijani jetliner in December that killed 38 people, his first public admission of responsibility for the crash in an effort to ease tensions between the neighbors."

After Macron, the deluge?

Learning from the Iran-Iraq War. The MWI is preaching to the TDR choir in this Land Warfare Paper (on what I called the First Gulf War) and this 9-part series about the war. 

Shot across the bow: "You need to fix alarming mission-capability rates and rising sustainment costs for the Air Force’s F-35A fighter jet, senators told the service’s chief-of-staff nominee on Thursday." 

Navigating the path to the Gaza Deal--whatever it actually turns out to mean. I'll have a post on Substack exploring one possible avenue on Tuesday morning.

The long struggle to keep Iran from getting--and using--nuclear weapons. 

Strategypage says Ukraine has lost 75,000 KIA in the war. Is that right? It's the lowest estimate I've seen. If true, Russia will have trouble killing (and dying) its way to victory. I did say not to count on Russia's GDP and population advantage, using the Iran-Iraq War as an example.

Accident?

It is amusing that weapons and capabilities can be called "exquisite" these days. Just call them complicated and expensive. And yes, we need some of them.

FFS: "Postwar constitutional provisions meant to keep the German military out of domestic affairs leave the country more vulnerable to the Kremlin's [drone] incursions." A little more clue bat, please.

The Russians didn't jam her GPS: "We assumed the story was suspect immediately upon reading it, if for no other reason than keeping von der Leyen in her current role has to be one of Moscow’s top strategic priorities." We disagree on why. I ignored the "See, I'm important!" story. It seemed ... off.

Huzzah! Russia hopes to restore its nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov after it sat in port since 1997. The question is its role. I doubt if it has a major combat role. It's a Discount Kuznetsov. The battlecruiser has a peacetime show-the-flag role.

Since the Whiskey Rebellion, the Insurrection Act has been invoked thirty times. The last time was 1992. Tip to Instapundit. 

The Pope seems more invested in keeping ice from melting than keeping Moslems from murdering Nigerian Christians on a large scale. Actual ongoing genocide and ethnic cleansing does not disturb the Sainted International Community. Tip to Instapundit. 

Huh: "The U.S. Army’s latest watercraft demonstrated its ability to transport a Marine Corps NMESIS anti-ship launcher last week in Hawaii." A means to move Task Force X from the Philippines to Taiwan? 

China seeks former Western fighter pilots to fix the problem of inexperienced pilots in expensive fighter planes. 

I think making it autonomous is just gold plating for something that should be mounted on a crewed vehicle: "[Leonidas AR is] a mobile, autonomous counter-drone system that can defeat swarms of unmanned aircraft with precision and minimal collateral damage." 

Should America embrace underground defense?  No. If you don't come out to fight and win, you are just in your eventual grave. Now if you are talking about underground shelter, sure. Which is really what the author argues.

Sure, we can learn from the Winter War of 2022. But let's not be hasty in learning from a war not yet over. And don't forget that we have to learn from those learning lessons from the war after it is over. War does not chisel permanent lessons in stone. We're just looking under the streetlight right now.

Defeating Hamas led to the ceasefire: "The conventional wisdom was that military action does not guarantee security in the Middle East. That is a lie. It was always a lie. It was always catastrophically wrong." Yes! But be careful drawing lessons for America. Define what "war" we are waging.

Uh oh: "More than two decades later, Congress is on the verge of writing a closing chapter to the war in Iraq." But Phase IX of the war still rages! This could be a gift to mullah-run Iran if "ending" the war doesn't account for staying to win the current fight. 

America has too few troops deployed to invade Venezuela: "The U.S. military is poised to eliminate the Maduro cartel, not to invade, occupy, and impose a puppet government in Venezuela." Sounds reasonable. What about Hezbollah? 

Is this Oregon National Guard general being insurrection-adjacent. I don't assume it. The Guard has a dual role to protect America and the state it is in. It depends on how it is mobilized--under state or federal authority. So the general may have been taken out of context. Or being very literal on the state role.

Oops: "The office of Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina has said an attempt to seize power illegally and by force is under way in the country." The unit--CAPSAT--that claims it now controls all the armed forces was "crucial" for the president gaining power in 2009. 

Well it's a damned shame Pakistan spent twenty years undermining America's fight against the Taliban: "Pakistan closed border crossings with Afghanistan on Sunday, Pakistani officials said, following exchanges of fire between the forces of the two countries." Counting on "tame" jihadis is folly.

To be fair, Russians are bastards: "NATO reacted appropriately to Russia's recent violations of Estonia's airspace but should expect further disruptive actions from Moscow, according to the Baltic country's foreign minister." How disruptive might Russian actions get? I explored one scenario in Army magazine.

I pay attention and I didn't realize the death toll: "While the media obsesses over Israel, Nigerian Islamists continue their years-long killing spree." I expect little from the Sainted International Community®. But how can the Pope show far more concern for global friggin' warming? 

China's subliminal offensive continues: "A Chinese coast guard ship used a powerful water cannon on Sunday then rammed and slightly damaged an anchored Philippine government vessel off an island inhabited by Filipinos in the disputed South China Sea, the Philippine coast guard said." 

Small Ground Drones in Static Warfare

I don't think Ukraine's ground drones could thrive in a rapidly moving frontline for most of the tasks noted in an article. But while the front is stalemated, the UGVs certainly help cope with the situation.

Ukraine tries to reduce casualties by turning over some missions to ground drones: 

On a battlefield swarming with deadly Russian drones, Ukrainian soldiers are increasingly turning to nimble, remote-controlled armored vehicles that can perform an array of tasks and spare troops from potentially life-threatening missions.

The Ukrainian army is especially eager to deploy what soldiers refer to as “robots on wheels” as it faces a shortage of soldiers in a war that has dragged on for more than 3 ½ years. The vehicles look like miniature tanks and can ferry supplies, clear mines and evacuate the wounded or dead.

I think that the key reason for these ground drones is that it is a static battlefield. Even more so than with aerial drones, I think Ukraine's use of small wheeled drones for various tasks simply cope with the static battlefield. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

Strategic Times are Changing

Will the new National Security Strategy align with America's power in the Era of Great Power Competition?

This is a good point:

Three decades of unprecedented U.S. power in the wake of our victory in the Cold War have conditioned America’s policy elites to assume that the international system will ultimately always bend to our will. ... We believe that we have agency in world affairs, while we remain unwilling to pay for properly resourcing our military and our defense industry, as though we were still living in the post-Cold War world. 

America coasted on its Cold War arsenal as the foundation of military power bolstered by new technology. That worked in a world with a broken and quiet Russia and a still-weak China.

Will America's new national security strategy account for the new situation? Or will it proclaim the objective of post-Cold War dominance? If so, will America spend to achieve that? Yet can America spend to achieve that as cumulative budget deficits pile up a national debt that is finally being noticed (if not really addressed)?

Let's take the logistics step first and then see where we are. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Sudden Sound of Crickets at Sea

Could non-kinetic weapons disable small boats? If so, would that translate to dealing with suicide USVs?

Useful for dealing with cartel drug boats: 

As the Trump administration unleashes a new strategy targeting Latin American drug cartels determined to be “narcoterrorists” with direct military action, the Pentagon is moving to buy nonkinetic weapons that can disrupt, disable, or prevent the operation of small watercraft with minimal collateral damage or potential harm to nearby civilians and boat operators.

The system should be small enough to put on "small Coast Guard boats". That's good.

But it would also useful for suicide USVs, given that "the Navy has been searching for better ways to defend against small boats that could carry IEDs since the USS Cole was attacked in 2000."

Nonkinetic weapons like that would end the Ukraine-inspired mania real fast.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: Photo from the article.

The Last Resort?

Is invasion really China's last resort to absorb Taiwan? Even if the generals say they are ready?

China clearly wants to own Taiwan, which increases tension in the region: 

Other factors have also contributed to growing anxiety about Taiwan’s future. Few doubt that China would try to use force to seize Taiwan militarily if it felt all other options to prevent permanent separation had been exhausted, but Beijing’s strong preference would be to take it over peacefully—with the island’s economy, technology, and human capital still intact. To achieve that goal, China is using a combination of relentless propaganda, infiltration, and military pressure to undercut U.S. support for Taiwan and to persuade Taiwan’s residents that they have little choice but to accept a political accommodation that recognizes Taiwan as part of China’s sovereign territory.

Despite the anxiety, the authors think Taiwan is secure for now.

Maybe. But while I'm sure China would like to take it over peacefully, I strongly doubt that invasion is China's last option after all other means are exhausted. I think that under-estimates China's desire for Taiwan and China's willingness to take an opportunity to use force.

And the opportunity to use force could be a complement to internal Taiwanese divisions insufficient to hand Taiwan to China cleanly but sufficient to provide the margin for victory through an invasion that doesn't look like a Western invasion. 

Did Putin exhaust all peaceful means prior to February 2022? Or did he use his shiny new military he wrongly believed was capable of solving the longstanding problem in a fortnight? 

Maybe China will conclude it doesn't have the problems of those Russian steppe barbarians. Or maybe it thinks it only has to be better than Taiwan's military. 

And China doesn't have to be right about its military capabilities to decide to go to war. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

Marines on Super Carriers

The Marines are seeking ways to cope with a lack of major amphibious warfare ships. Putting Marine combat units--as opposed past usage as security for nukes--on super carriers is one idea.

Putting a Marine Special Purpose Marine Air Ground Task Force with its Marine and aircraft on a super carrier would require reducing the carrier air wing by at least two squadrons. There was some experience in 1994:

Adm Paul David Miller, directed the 22d MEU and a CVBG to work up and deploy an "Adaptive Force Package," as an experiment. He directed us to split the MEU assets from the amphibious ships and deploy a CH-46 helicopter detachment, a rifle company (-)(rein) and a small headquarters detachment on the aircraft carrier.

That could be appropriate. But would it really be necessary to leave aircraft behind now? I thought our super carriers could carry more aircraft than they embark with during peacetime since the Cold War.

I had some related thoughts for a reduced force of Navy super carriers sometimes carrying Marines. 

And perhaps even with just a company afloat there is an option for the large Marine force as a crisis develops. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do! 

NOTE: I made the image with Bing.

The Winter War of 2022 Enters the Last Act?

Are we approaching the last acts of the Winter War of 2022? Russia seems anxious to end the war before Ukraine is better armed. With Trump's frustration with Putin over ending the war evident, Russia must worry America will open up the arms spigot to end the war on another route.

The war goes on. It seems like something is looming along the front. This report on potential war outcomes notably fails to consider a collapse of Russian ground force morale in response to casualties. Which to me seems more likely than a Ukrainian collapse. But unless Ukraine has a reserve to exploit a Russian morale collapse, Russia has more ability to exploit a Ukrainian collapse.

I never believed Trump was a danger to Ukraine. I said he would find other ways to arm Ukraine. He never canceled the arms jammed into the pipeline by the outgoing Biden administration (except for one Pentagon halt--that was quickly overruled--to review assets potentially needed by the American military). And American help with intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting has continued with only one or two blips this year.

I firmly believe Trump's nice treatment of Putin was not from admiration but from the need to build some trust to achieve peace. That objective was a long shot, at best. But trying and failing does justify a change of policy.

One way for America to help Ukraine is having Europeans pay for American weapons. That is being done. Another way is having Ukraine pay. The minerals deal we finalized is one potential avenue. And this deal is another:

The primary focus of the [Ukrainian delegation] visit was to present Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems (UAS) capabilities, discuss procurement terms, and explore options for integrating them into U.S. defense operations.

America could pay with more weapons and ammunition for Ukraine, no?

Meanwhile, Russia seems worried rather than a real invasion danger. I don't see Russia's recent drone pressure (and other covert attacks) on NATO as aggressiveness as much as I see it as desperation. Would Russian leaders confident they could defeat Ukraine really risk victory by widening the war to NATO needlessly? No. They'd suck it up, defeat Ukraine, and only then look at getting back at NATO.

NATO should openly bolster defenses against drones, missiles; and quietly defeat covert Russian attacks inside Europe and increase support to Ukraine. That is the best way to punish Russia rather than shooting down a manned Russian aircraft. Russia would love that and use it to issue extreme threats to widen splits in the West for arming Ukraine.

Meanwhile at the front, this deployment of a relatively (and turn down the lights and squint) elite Russian airborne unit to the Kherson sector is interesting:

The reason for the redeployment of the 98th VDV Division is unclear. The Russian military command may be redeploying the 98th VDV Division to the Kherson direction to allow it to rest and reconstitute away from active frontline ground operations.

Huh. 

A sector of the front that is quiet and safe for rest and reconstitution? Sounds so familiar:

The Germans achieved a total surprise attack on the morning of 16 December 1944, due to a combination of Allied overconfidence based on the favorable defensive terrain and faulty intelligence about Wehrmacht intentions, poor aerial reconnaissance due to bad weather, and a preoccupation with Allied offensive plans elsewhere. American forces were using this region primarily as a rest area for the U.S. First Army, and the lines were thinly held by fatigued troops and inexperienced replacement units. The Germans also took advantage of heavily overcast weather conditions that grounded the Allies' superior air forces for an extended period.  

And my attention keeps going back to the Kherson front more than two years after Ukraine's failed 2023 summer counteroffensive. The 2023 was simultaneously too late to exploit Russia's culmination and too hastily prepared to succeed against reinforced and dug-in Russian troops. In that post I speculated that the new corps reorganization could be significant for a counteroffensive.

Perhaps last year's Ukrainian August Kursk attack was a proof of concept. And now Ukraine is forming large divisions (called corps) to expand that capability.  

I know, I know. Connecting a few dots to create a full picture is highly risky. Especially one I would like to see. But I keep going back to the idea that I cannot imagine that Ukraine and its NATO senior advisors have settled on passively outlasting Russia on the ground as the means of defeating Russia. Oh, a tough defense by Ukraine is as useful as the Red Army's tough defense of its Kursk Salient in 1943 that decimated Germany's offensive capabilities. But ultimately the Soviets had to follow that up with a big attack to drive the actual Nazis back to Berlin.

I admit I am reduced to speculating. But it isn't just that. I'm trying to figure out what I would do were I the God of Strategic Planning for Ukraine. 

In unrelated news, Ukraine has completed its ground force reorganization into corps. 

UPDATE (Monday): I don't know how I missed this article, but it is close to what I expected regarding Ukraine's new corps:

Compared to their US Army counterparts, the Ukrainian corps are closer to big divisions, with five or so maneuver brigades in each. ...

The 8th Corps has confirmed it will receive an artillery brigade (the 148th). Other corps likely will get artillery brigades as well, although Ukraine may have to form more if every corps is to get one, depending on how many corps end up being created. Additional support elements will likely include anti-aircraft, logistics, drone, electronic warfare, engineer-sapper, communications, and repair-restoration units, among others. ...

Ukraine is short on some corps-level capabilities. For example, unlike earlier Ukrainian corps, the current ones likely will not have army aviation units—at least not anytime soon—as Kyiv lacks enough helicopters.

And MLRS with longer ranges are insufficient to equip each corps. They might be held at higher levels. 

Much more at the link. 

UPDATE (Friday): Discussing the actions of the Azov Corps counter-attacking around Russia's penetrations in the Dobropillia area. 

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.

NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. 

NOTE: Image of the 1940 German attack through the Ardennes, from the source indicated on the image.

Weekend Data Dump

I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section. 

In case you missed it on Substack: The Western Alliances Will Be Just Fine

In case you missed it on Substack: Are Carriers an Admiral Full Employment Device?

In case you missed it on Substack: OBJECTIVE: Hezbollah

In case you missed it on Substack: The New (Old) Marine Corps?

NATO not brushed back from the plate: "NATO could transform the current mission monitoring the airspace over its eastern flank into a full defensive operation following repeated incursions by Russian drones and jets, a top military officer said on Saturday." 

In two days, it will be two years since Hamas and its allied small jihadi groups invaded Israel to rape, murder, and kidnap on a grand scale. Since then Hamas has used Gazans as human shields to keep the war going in the face of punishing Israeli ground and air attacks. Now Israel seeks to compel surrender.

Bastards!

Russia and China tried to delay "snapback" sanctions on Iran by persuading a majority to delay them. I'm quite surprised they didn't argue that the entire "snapback" mechanism is illegal under the U.N. charter. Let's see if the sanctions can be enforced.

Maduro is arming Venezuelans with rifles. He assumes they would be used against American invaders. But what if American invaders never arrive? What will the armed, poverty-stricken people use them for?

Russia: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday said any aggressive actions made toward Russia will be met with a 'decisive response.'" Why is Lavrov threatening China?

We were about jihadis getting nukes. Whether that's Sunni terrorist groups or the Shia rulers of Iran. But what if a nuclear state pursuing long-range missiles is taken over by jihadis? 

Oh FFS: "A new government watchdog report found that military ground vehicles used by the Army and Marine Corps are often not able to be used in the field by troops."

Despite grand surface fleet announcements, Russia has wisely prioritized nuclear-powered submarines for their nuclear deterrent force and the boats to protect them.

Well, mostly deserters, to be precise: "A growing number of armed Russian soldiers are operating as criminal gangs, stealing what they can and living off plunder. Local Russian police are unable to control this mayhem." They will be perfect for a civil war. 

Russia has turned to Cuba for more mercenaries to die in Ukraine.

Russia has hauled out a World War I weapon, Chloropicrin gas, to use against Ukrainian troops. At this point, I'd be hard-pressed to put business before pleasure should China invade Russia to retake their lost territories. 

Can Ukraine adapt? Will this backfire and encourage Western small drone production? "China has stopped selling Ukraine drones and drone components." 

The pro-EU party beat the pro-Russia party in Moldova's election. It's a defeat for Russia. I wish there was a pro-West but non-EU party to achieve a true victory for the West. But I'll take it for now. 

The U.S. has a plan that leads to a Palestinian state. As long as it is de-jihadified. 

But how vulnerable is it to relatively cheap suicide satellite swarms? "The United States is embarking on an ambitious project to redefine satellite deployment through the development of an orbital aircraft carrier." 

This seems like is should be something that every armored combat vehicle should have: "Some maritime special operators are getting a robotic turret that can turn machine guns into an autonomous drone-killer for boats and other vehicles." And other platoons or batteries could have a separate vehicle with APS+.

A Coast Guard icebreaker will get the ability to mount cube Mission Modules on deck space to have flexible capabilities. 

Marine stand-in forces must prepare to overcome sustainment, survivability, and isolation problems on their worst days. I don't know, I can imagine much worse days. But the effort is worthy.

Is it progress that Europe is being organized by fanatics to carry out a final solution to global warming by making Europe carbon free? 

The Gaza 20-point plan. 

Sweden will provide the backbone of a NATO brigade in northern Finland, providing a unit that promotes Arctic combat skills. Denmark, and Norway will provide combat units; France, the UK, and Iceland will provide staff and support. Finland will provide two brigades. The total will add up to a division. Good!

Apparently, pairs of Ukrainian helicopters--one with sensors and one with weapons--are surprisingly good at shooting down drones.

When a federal agency intended to protect us from foreign bad actors is turned against Americans so easily, it makes it harder to convince Americans that foreign threats should be defeated. Stay in your lane, agencies. Tip to Instapundit.

Children's Crusade 2.0 nears its end. 

Turkey used to own Egypt in the caliphate: "Turkey and Egypt staged their first joint naval drill in more than a decade last week, signaling a cautious thaw in relations after years of political hostility." But for Egypt it is a balance to reliance on the Saudis. And Turkey would like free access to the Horn of Africa.

If they can't be dead good jihadis I at least want them to remain imprisoned jihadis: "U.S. Central Command is stepping in to help reduce the population of large detention camps in northeast Syria that officials say have become incubators for ISIS radicalization."  

Good luck: "French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to back a “conference that our Saudi friends will hold” in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as the LAF prepares for the contentious mission to disarm Hezbollah." 

I continue to be perplexed that Western female feminists aren't the most hard-core anti-jihadis in the world.  

Sure: "A war between NATO and Russia would be one- sided even without the Americans. European NATO nations can raise far more troops and equip them with more tanks, warplanes and warships than Russia can muster." But until they are raised and deployed, a reconstituted Russian army will take ground.

Not really: "Recent attacks in Russia, the Middle East, and Ukraine show that bases are easy targets for drones, missiles, and drone-missile hybrids[.]" Russia, Israel, and even Ukraine continue to use their air bases. By all means defend air bases. They've always been attacked. Let's not get carried away. 

New national security strategy to make fortifying America a priority. Well, CONUS is the foundation for force projection. 

Hello China! "A U.S. Navy guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles arrived for a port visit to the Philippines last week during its Pacific patrol, the sea service confirmed." 

Is the U.S. failing? "Ukraine’s war has shifted the drone revolution to the ground, where unmanned ground vehicles now deliver supplies, evacuate wounded, breach mines, conduct ISR, and lay suppressive fire." I am not impressed with small ground drones. They remain a potential asset for the Army.

The Army needs to build air defenses to guard against hundreds of incoming missiles and suicide drones per day. And when is the first Russian thousand-asset raid of this war? 

Hamas is unlikely to agree to Trump's 20-point plan. That's okay. While it would be nice if Hamas accepted it, I imagine the likely purpose is to green light the Israeli offensive until its conclusion. 

I would have guessed Erdogan: "Surprise! That Sumud 'relief' flotilla crossing the Mediterranean to the Gaza Strip is actually a Hamas operation, according to secret documents just uncovered by Israeli forces operating in Gaza." 

Huh (via Instapundit): "The Trump administration is pressuring Taiwan to rapidly move 50 percent of its chip production into the US if it wants ensured protection against a threatened Chinese invasion[.]" That's something new? 

Uh oh: "Youth-led protests over power and water outages in Madagascar intensified on Tuesday despite President Andry Rajoelina's move to dismiss the government a day earlier."

Oh? "The European Commission on Monday proposed four key defense projects — including a drone wall to block Russian aerial aggression." I worry that the EU only wants the power to run projects and that the success of the projects is secondary, at best.

Taiwan: "'if Russia is defeated, China will be left alone to be dealt with by the whole Western camp,' he told the crowd. 'Second, when China and Russia are working together, they intimidate the whole world. Third, if Russia is defeated, China will have to handle Taiwan and whole world will pay attention.'"  

Can't let the wrong sort bring peace to Gaza? Or maybe the anti-Israel critics can handle only two outcomes--the destruction of Israel or the destruction of all Gazans. Either outcome would fit with their view of the world.

Hegseth said the military's only goal is "preparing for war and preparing to win" in order to "be strong so that we can prevent war in the first place." Good. Lesser standards for defense with lesser means lead to war. Honestly, I think the public speech to senior officers was for lower rank enlisted and officers.

Resisting China: "New Mexico-based contractor Ace Builders, Inc. was selected last week for a $975,000 design-build project of a small boat maintenance facility at Naval Detachment Oyster Bay in Western Palawan."

Rising sun: "The first Japanese warship destined to receive a Tomahawk cruise missile capability is now sailing to the United States for the required modifications." Bravo, China.

This time, for sure! "The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday adopted a resolution to transform a UN-backed security mission in gang-dominated Haiti into a larger, full-fledged force with military troops." 

It's just feeding the dragon, hoping to be its last meal: "The idea of a grand bargain with Beijing that trades Taiwan’s autonomy for 'stability' is seductive." It's delusional. Giving people to monsters is immoral and counter-productive. 

Macron is worried that German rearmament won't be funneled through the EU. Broke France can't afford the same and has long wanted the German oxen yoked to France's wagon. Well, Macron's wagon. 

How can the U.S.-South Korea alliance be updated? North Korea isn't the invasion threat it used to be. And the ROK has the ability to confront China at sea rather than fixate on the DMZ. So sure, an update would be nice. 

Russia fears a Golden Dome will neutralize their strategic nuclear weapons. Seriously? How thick do they think the shield will be to shoot down their huge arsenal? Unless ... . 

Unit 888: "Israel has formed Refaim, a new experimental Special Operations unit combining ground operations, drones, robotics, and real-time intelligence." Toss in AI in the discussion of countering enemies. 

Sh*t got real: "The French navy was Wednesday on board a tanker from Russia's "shadow fleet" stationed off France[.]" 

As the EU seeks "strategic autonomy" with broad military power, this is why I mistrust the EU: "giving more power to Brussels means granting more authority to bureaucrats who, for decades, have made European states less wealthy, less secure, and less free."

Trump signed an order pledging to protect Qatar from attack. Reassurance against Israel or is it against Iran?

Get back to me when it is "all": "The US Army says it has mitigated several cybersecurity risks discovered in an early iteration of its nascent Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) platform[.]" 

Romania seeks American Abrams tanks.

If South Korea wants to blame Trump in order to increase defenses, I'm fine with that. 

Senior NATO land commanders met in the victim of Russia's original Winter War.

Hey, Russia! "Protective Fence 25 has brought roughly 50 aircraft and 1,200 personnel from Finland and partner nations into a week of dispersed air operations across Finland and Sweden, the UK Defence Journal understands." BOOM

The World War II model is gone: "Absent pre-war reconstruction of critical enablers, a modern two-front mobilization would be slower, more brittle, and vulnerable to collapse under attrition before decisive effects could be generated." 

Would America's military even have occasional recruiting problems if urban schools could actually educate their pupils?

The Army will upgrade ARNG helicopter units by reducing the number of active Army AH-64Es. 

The U.S. will sell HIMARS to Australia. As I suspected, there may be an anti-ship angle.

Thank you for playing, Greta. Here are your lovely parting gifts. Seemingly everyone in the flotilla threw their electronic devices into the sea before the Israeli troops could seize them. Tip to Instapundit.

Uh oh: "At least two people have been killed in Morocco after police opened fire to prevent protesters from storming a police station in Lqliaa, near the coastal city of Agadir, state media says." "Huge youth-led protests" had started over a week ago.

My oath of enlistment was different, encompassing the state constitution, too, but enemies are not just foreign: "... I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic ..." Just saying as a point of clarification.

Scouting the undersea battle space: "The Philippine Coast Guard confiscated a Chinese-made autonomous underwater vessel operating within the country’s waters in the South China Sea over the weekend[.]" 

Hmm: "President Donald Trump has declared drug cartels to be unlawful combatants and says the United States is now in an "armed conflict” with them[.]" Either I'm wrong or this is more misdirection. Or the healing power of "and", of course. 

Um: "As Russian drone incursions across Europe spike, the European Union committed Wednesday to one of the most ambitious multi-nation defense projects in history: a Europe-wide 'drone wall[.]'" I just hope the EU values the "wall" more than it values gaining the power to build such a wall.

Terrorists had to take over airliners to have an air force on September 11, 2001. Now they can just buy their own drones to threaten our homeland. 

That would be a "no." Consequences to follow. 

Red Sea: "The Houthis are claiming an attack on a Dutch cargo ship that resulted in a fire and left two crew members injured." Will Egypt finally secure its Suez Canal cash cow? 

Critical condition: "Deposed Syrian tyrant Bashar al-Assad was poisoned in Russia right under his pal Vladimir Putin’s nose, according to a human rights watchdog." He's of no use to Russia, now. If the report is true, of course. If it was not done with Putin's approval, he may worry about his own security.

Pity that Britain imported so many actual and potential jihadis: "The suspect behind the deadly car and knife terror attack outside a synagogue in Manchester in the United Kingdom on Thursday has been identified by police as Jihad Al-Shamie, a 35-year-old British citizen of Syrian descent."

Face it, NGOs are the Houthi logistics arm for non-weapons supplies. 

A call for conventionally powered attack submarines. While the idea is sound to supplement SSNs, the Navy worries that if Congress has that option, that the Navy will get too few SSNs because the conventional boats are cheaper. But honestly, after not building them for so long, they won't be cheaper.

I did not know that Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines cannot use Harpoon anti-ship missiles. FFS.

Hmm. Good in theory. But I'm not sure how one would exploit reservists' civilian skills without tearing apart the units the reservists are in. Units the military needs to fight. 

Does China feel a closing window of opportunity to use its military to cement its status?  I saw the window closing on their foundation of power some time ago. Using military power with a shaky foundation simply risks accelerating the downhill slide. China could totally make that mistake.

The UAE's base building around the Gulf of Aden in Somaliland, Puntland, and Yemen's Socotra Island and other locations. This is done with Israel and with America's help. I mentioned Socotra not long ago. And the projects have been around for a while. The UAE also has a presence in Sudan. Busy dudes.

European countries aren't all on board the "drone wall" project. 

Trump accepted Hamas' non-acceptance acceptance of the plan. Why pretend Hamas didn't reject it? Of course, if Hamas releases all of the living and dead hostages it holds, its objections may not matter. 

I'd like some context on the claimed West Bank body count. 

Thirty thousand North Korean support troops are expected to enter Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory in a few months. North Korea seemingly doesn't want to repeat the destruction of their initial combat element. 

Interesting: Could the president use the Defense Production Act to order defense industry "primes" produce defense items he believes is critical for a war he believes is imminent? Or would the Supreme Court strike it down post-Chevron?

Do it right: "With the White House noticing the start of the mandated six-year review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, the clock is ticking on the future of the most consequential trade partnership in America’s history."

Mali continues to suck. 

We're still just considering it? "Earlier this year the United States threatened to halt $336 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority/PA if the Palestinians did not halt their Pay for Slay program." 

Interesting: "Kim Jong-un tries to assure Xi that North Korea is not looking to hedge against China with its pursuit of stronger ties with Russia, and attempt at new dialogue with the US." My related post.

Is Ukraine's success against Russian oil refineries going to cripple Russia? Or will this be a temporary problem for Russia until it copes with Ukraine's surge in attacks? 

 

Recall that I've noted that Trump did not cancel that flow: "U.S. military support for Ukraine is expected to phase out over the next year as deliveries of Biden-era aid are completed." Which suggests American support for Ukraine won't actually end.