I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The Death of Infantry
In case you missed it on Substack: Bringing in Traditional Air Power to Defeat Drone Swarm Attacks
In case you missed it on Substack: Ship Defense With Drones
In case you missed it on Substack: Teach Them Properly
China-backed Myanmar: "A third of the population is not getting enough food and faces starvation. Over five million children can no longer attend school. The military government is concentrating on staying in power[...]" But it is nearly impossible to blame Israel, so the sainted international community doesn't care.
It is purportedly a Chinese curse to "be careful of what you wish for because you might get it": "China is believed to have developed a plan to eliminate or greatly reduce Western interests in the Middle East and allow China to step in as the new foreign influence."
So what? "For the first time in decades, the next commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa will wear fewer stars on his shoulders than his U.S. military counterparts in the theater." If the most powerful air force in NATO was led by a second lieutenant, that officer would carry weight.
A new type of MLRS: "A company in China recently unveiled a containerized system it says is capable of quickly launching and recovering thousands of small quadcopter-type drones at the touch of a button."
Aerial power projection: "A renewed emphasis on fielding next-gen air refueler by the mid-2030s has left Boeing’s KC-46 Pegasus as the only tanker that can readily meet the Air Force’s tanker needs[.]"
I doubt we will attack Venezuela's military. Would Venezuela attack our assets if our missiles hit non-state enemies inside Venezuela? "the prospects of some kind of confrontation between the U.S. military and Venezuela are rising[.]" I still think Hezbollah could be the real target, with drug cartel overlap.
Speculations on China's J-50 stealth plane.
Seriously? The locals are in secession territory. Next up, a judge ruling federal troops can't go to the schoolhouse doors. It's an actual insurrection.The worst of the 1970s wasn't bell bottom pants and disco, you know. Let's not make things worse now. We have enough foreign problems. Tips to Instapundit.
I have no problem with a whole-of-government effort to ensure our national defense. But I would hope that Joint Force Quarterly would focus on the military using its armed forces jointly as the pointy stick part of the whole-of-government approach that is above the Pentagon's pay grade.
Navy surface ships need more auto-cannons, technology to improve them, more drones, and better electronic warfare for a more robust air defense. Endorsed. But I don't know how small USVs can sail with the fleet. And what about small suicide drones as a CIWS?
To be fair, while Germans vowed "never again" after 1945, in recent decades Germany imported people who are of the "one more time" view: "Germany has seen 'increasing hate and violence' against Jewish people since the October 7, 2023, attacks[.]"
Is Macron's political future over? Well, he might get dumped upstairs to the EU safety net, I suppose.
European leaders are unhappy that certain Czech people have spoken at the polls.
Without adequate protection and counter-measures, they are a display of targets and not of force: "American M1A2 Abrams and British Challenger 2 main battle tanks stood side by side this week at Camp Tapa, Estonia, in a public display meant as much for Moscow as for local audiences[.]"
I sure hope our enemies are in worse shape: "The U.S. Navy’s maintainers have had to strip submarines and fighter jets for spare parts to repair other planes and subs, a government watchdog found."
Iran may want to buy dozens of Russian Su-35s, but the question is whether Russia can deliver them. I suspect the "leak" was deliberate to exaggerate Russian production and Iran's military rebuilding.
The Navy is seeking repair capabilities in Singapore.
The truth is ... on or about ... there?
Huh: "A Russian fiber-optic-controlled first-person view (FPV) drone made a precision strike within the city of Kramatorsk for the first time on Sunday[.]" Wire-guided drones can't really patrol. But they do function as Super Saggers, no?
The idea that Bangladesh needs advanced fighters is insane.
Somebody worries about losing oil imports: "China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost crude stockpiles[.]" Why?
Ukraine retains a drone advantage over Russia.
The XM204 smart top-attack land mine.
Iran has bad options after its losses in the last two years. The author says the snapback sanctions are "crippling." We'll see. But I was absolutely wrong in my belief that Russia and China would challenge snapback provisions as a violation of UN rules. As for Iran's options? I think one option is overlooked.
Good Lord! Completely ending drug smuggling would not have any effect on how Mexico's cartels have latched on to Mexican oil imports and exports with a complicit Mexican government. One day my worry will come true unless something changes. Another reason Hezbollah is the real target?
The Syrian Islamist government has agreed to a ceasefire with the Kurds. Doesn't sound like this is anything more than a chance to reload.
Indeed: "Information collected by Five Eyes nations suggests China will have 70 ocean going ferries capable of supporting a sealift operation to invade Taiwan by the end of 2026." It eventually adds up.
Russia is adding tanks to the National Guard, Putin's regime protection force. Makes sense if Putin wants to win a civil war.
I personally had riot control training in the ARNG. This interpretation of what is going on is just wrong: "Trump envisages a country where armed soldiers patrol U.S. streets." If state and local governments provided law and order, there would be no need to jump-start that with federal forces.
A European 2.75" rocket optimized for anti-drone work with a proximity fuse and airburst warhead. It's a flying shotgun. And being used by Ukraine.
Next up, war conscription and press gangs: "Russian regions are dramatically increasing the amount of money they pay to new military recruits as analysts say “ideological” recruitment campaigns are no longer enough to motivate people to fight in Ukraine."
Friends in need? "The U.K. Carrier Strike Group and the Indian Navy Vikrant Carrier Strike Group are conducting a joint exercise for the first time, operating together in the Western Indian Ocean."
Changes to AUKUS and Taiwan defense ties? Hopefully good changes.
Did hitting Iran's nuclear infrastructure set back Iran's nuclear weapons drive by six months, requiring more attacks? I sure hope the mullah regime falls first.
Take your time. Why hurry? "Currently the United States is producing 40,000 155mm artillery shells a month, not the planned 100,000. That won’t happen until sometime in 2026." Was the message from the Winter War of 2022 not FLASH OVERRIDE priority?
Applying the clue bat to senior military leadership so the lower ranks can see it.
Shotguns are proving to be effective drone defense weapons. Why couldn't a vehicle Active Protection System have a shotgun, too, for drone defense? Or could a shotgun be effective for all APS targets?
Japan posts a Keep Off the Grass sign at sea.
Is America ignoring signs that China is preparing to initiate war?
Optimizing (badly) the Marine Corps for an anti-ship mission in the western Pacific de-fangs the Marines for a variety of global missions. Why wasn't the Navy Expeditionary Combat Command tapped for anti-ship batteries?
Is China really under pressure to attack Taiwan before its opportunity passes? First, you have to get past the arguments that China can't invade Taiwan now. Then you have to consider whether China reacts by picking on an easier target. And then consider if China won't be patient and try for a new opportunity.
Eritrean-Ethiopian tensions flare. Uh oh.
I think this analysis over-states the genius of how Russia is adapting to the conditions of the Winter War of 2022 and the state of its ground forces. At least it is more serious than this farcical praise.
Italy reaches out to Africa. Better Italy than Russia filling the vacuum being left by France.
New small drones revive interest in old heavy machine guns.
A defense pact between the three Baltic states and Poland is a good idea given that the region is NATO's main front. But saying it should be instead of NATO is nonsense, sounding like an EU talking point to weaken and replace NATO. And what about Poland joining JEF?
Lord knows who will be prime minister of France by the time this posts.
The Army is the backbone of joint logistics to the shooters: "The Flying Ship Company (FSC), a pioneer in autonomous wing-in-ground-effect (WIG) cargo logistics, has been selected as a winner in the U.S. Army xTechSearch 9 Competition in the Contested Logistics and Sustainment technical domain."
Rygge Air Station: "The U.S. military is moving ahead on development of a Norwegian airfield into a place where American and allied forces can be deployed in a crisis.
But still a strong majority: "Europeans are less inclined to support defense spending increases than they were a year and a half ago[.]"
The mullahs that did not bark in the night. I always thought hyperventilating predictions of doom were meant to protect Iran.
The Army is getting the prototype for a 6.4mm LICC rifle: "The Next Generation Squad Weapons program that birthed those weapons was driven heavily by the same concerns about range as LICC, as well as improvements in adversary body armor." Related thoughts from me on the USNI Blog.
Rejecting silver bullets preaches to the TDR choir: "FPVs matter and have a role to play, but they should not dominate how defense leaders and the policymaking community should think about this war." Other capabilities may be better than what the FPVs show is possible. And it remains a combined arms fight.
LOL. The Yemeni coast guard will simply become a more coveted assignment because of increased corruption opportunities to look the other way--or even carry the contraband they are supposed to stop.
Gas! Gas! Gas! Beard. Beard? Beard!!
The Philippines exercises with allied and partner navies in the path of China's aggression.
If China thinks it is worth it to help Russia's subliminal "shadow war" against Europe, America should appreciate the need to help defend Europe. As we hope to split Russia from China, don't do their work and split America from Europe.
The Sainted International Community® has selective concern: "While the media obsesses over Israel, Nigerian Islamists continue their years-long killing spree." No doubt, Christian existence is needlessly provocative to Islamists.
Russia's navy is crippled by corruption. I wonder if sailors who thought themselves immune from ground combat will mutiny.
If Americans believed this in 1860, the Confederate States of America would still be a thing: "Most Americans believe the president should only deploy service members to face external threats[.]" I swore an oath to defend against enemies foreign and domestic. No power to arrest, of course.
Very good: "The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) dispatched a total of 15 cutters and offshore vessels early Tuesday to resupply and escort fishermen operating in the vicinity of the Scarborough and Sabina shoals[.]"
The Navy's schedule for celebrating its 250th anniversary (that officially takes place Monday).
Finland to build four icebreakers for the U.S. Coast Guard.
Launching Switchblade suicide drones from the Abrams.
BOOM: "Japan continues to work toward enhancing its long-range cruise missile capability, with contracts issued for a new standoff capability for its submarine fleet, as well as improved anti-ship missiles for its destroyers."
Italy will soon reach the old NATO goal of 2% of GDP defense spending. But as I always advise, the Definitions Section changes are key to meeting the old goal.
When I've mentioned that information is the key to battlefield success rather than just the drones that exploit that, this is what I meant: "Two Royal Air Force aircraft have carried out extensive surveillance flights along NATO’s eastern frontier, covering the entire stretch from the Arctic Ocean to the Black Sea"
This is absolutely needed: "Taiwan will accelerate the building of a “Taiwan Shield” or “T-Dome” air defense system in the face of the military threat from China[.]"
Putin reads from the "Well, Duh" files: " President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia’s air defense were to blame for downing an Azerbaijani jetliner in December that killed 38 people, his first public admission of responsibility for the crash in an effort to ease tensions between the neighbors."
Learning from the Iran-Iraq War. The MWI is preaching to the TDR choir in this Land Warfare Paper (on what I called the First Gulf War) and this 9-part series about the war.
Shot across the bow: "You need to fix alarming mission-capability rates and rising sustainment costs for the Air Force’s F-35A fighter jet, senators told the service’s chief-of-staff nominee on Thursday."
Navigating the path to the Gaza Deal--whatever it actually turns out to mean. I'll have a post on Substack exploring one possible avenue on Tuesday morning.
The long struggle to keep Iran from getting--and using--nuclear weapons.
Strategypage says Ukraine has lost 75,000 KIA in the war. Is that right? It's the lowest estimate I've seen. If true, Russia will have trouble killing (and dying) its way to victory. I did say not to count on Russia's GDP and population advantage, using the Iran-Iraq War as an example.
It is amusing that weapons and capabilities can be called "exquisite" these days. Just call them complicated and expensive. And yes, we need some of them.
FFS: "Postwar constitutional provisions meant to keep the German military out of domestic affairs leave the country more vulnerable to the Kremlin's [drone] incursions." A little more clue bat, please.
The Russians didn't jam her GPS: "We assumed the story was suspect immediately upon reading it, if for no other reason than keeping von der Leyen in her current role has to be one of Moscow’s top strategic priorities." We disagree on why. I ignored the "See, I'm important!" story. It seemed ... off.
Huzzah! Russia hopes to restore its nuclear-powered battlecruiser Admiral Nakhimov after it sat in port since 1997. The question is its role. I doubt if it has a major combat role. It's a Discount Kuznetsov. The battlecruiser has a peacetime show-the-flag role.
Since the Whiskey Rebellion, the Insurrection Act has been invoked thirty times. The last time was 1992. Tip to Instapundit.
The Pope seems more invested in keeping ice from melting than keeping Moslems from murdering Nigerian Christians on a large scale. Actual ongoing genocide and ethnic cleansing does not disturb the Sainted International Community. Tip to Instapundit.
Huh: "The U.S. Army’s latest watercraft demonstrated its ability to transport a Marine Corps NMESIS anti-ship launcher last week in Hawaii." A means to move Task Force X from the Philippines to Taiwan?
I think making it autonomous is just gold plating for something that should be mounted on a crewed vehicle: "[Leonidas AR is] a mobile, autonomous counter-drone system that can defeat swarms of unmanned aircraft with precision and minimal collateral damage."
Should America embrace underground defense? No. If you don't come out to fight and win, you are just in your eventual grave. Now if you are talking about underground shelter, sure. Which is really what the author argues.
Sure, we can learn from the Winter War of 2022. But let's not be hasty in learning from a war not yet over. And don't forget that we have to learn from those learning lessons from the war after it is over. War does not chisel permanent lessons in stone. We're just looking under the streetlight right now.
Defeating Hamas led to the ceasefire: "The conventional wisdom was that military action does not guarantee security in the Middle East. That is a lie. It was always a lie. It was always catastrophically wrong." Yes! But be careful drawing lessons for America. Define what "war" we are waging.
Uh oh: "More than two decades later, Congress is on the verge of writing a closing chapter to the war in Iraq." But Phase IX of the war still rages! This could be a gift to mullah-run Iran if "ending" the war doesn't account for staying to win the current fight.
America has too few troops deployed to invade Venezuela: "The U.S. military is poised to eliminate the Maduro cartel, not to invade, occupy, and impose a puppet government in Venezuela." Sounds reasonable. What about Hezbollah?
Is this Oregon National Guard general being insurrection-adjacent. I don't assume it. The Guard has a dual role to protect America and the state it is in. It depends on how it is mobilized--under state or federal authority. So the general may have been taken out of context. Or being very literal on the state role.
Oops: "The office of Madagascar's President Andry Rajoelina has said an attempt to seize power illegally and by force is under way in the country." The unit--CAPSAT--that claims it now controls all the armed forces was "crucial" for the president gaining power in 2009.
Well it's a damned shame Pakistan spent twenty years undermining America's fight against the Taliban: "Pakistan closed border crossings with Afghanistan on Sunday, Pakistani officials said, following exchanges of fire between the forces of the two countries." Counting on "tame" jihadis is folly.
To be fair, Russians are bastards: "NATO reacted appropriately to Russia's recent violations of Estonia's airspace but should expect further disruptive actions from Moscow, according to the Baltic country's foreign minister." How disruptive might Russian actions get? I explored one scenario in Army magazine.
I pay attention and I didn't realize the death toll: "While the media obsesses over Israel, Nigerian Islamists continue their years-long killing spree." I expect little from the Sainted International Community®. But how can the Pope show far more concern for global friggin' warming?
China's subliminal offensive continues: "A Chinese coast guard ship used a powerful water cannon on Sunday then rammed and slightly damaged an anchored Philippine government vessel off an island inhabited by Filipinos in the disputed South China Sea, the Philippine coast guard said."
