As I've lamented the state of our military, I've often said that I hope our foes' militaries are worse than they portray. They are. We've seen what it means for Russia. What does it mean for China?
I knew Russia and China weren't as good as they appear. But how much worse? The Chinese are worried that Russia's exposed ineptitude reflects China's problems, which many Chinese leaders recognize:
Chinese leaders are watching the Russian and Ukrainian military performance during the current war with great interest and growing alarm. That’s because current Chinese armed forces are closer to what Russia is using than to the Ukraine’s, which China would like to emulate. That would be difficult because of China’s politics and endemic corruption.
For most of this new century China's leaders have complained about the state of their armed forces. The critics include many irate generals and admirals. ...
The truth, as Chinese leaders describe it, is more depressing. It's all about corruption among the military leadership and low standards for training and discipline. In short, Chinese military power is more fraud than fact and three decades of trying to change that have not produced as much change as befits the most technologically advanced and well-equipped military China has ever produced.
I'm relieved that the Chinese leadership is not fooled by their shiny image.
Still, China's military is getting better. Not as much as its shiny new weapons imply. But better. It really only needs to be better than the Taiwanese military to absorb their most core of core interests. Is it? And can China delay American intervention long enough to exploit that gap in time to defeat Taiwan?
And what does "defeating" Taiwan mean?
If China concluded it can't defeat Taiwan under those conditions, where might China's gaze fall when it realizes Putin's failures in Ukraine reveal Russia is more of an opportunity now?
UPDATE: Don't panic about China:
Beijing’s opportunity for advantage may be limited and the CCP mainly poses a short-term problem. In any case, America should proceed with confidence, not fear, in the coming years as it competes with China.
I've long noted China's problem in reaching the top spot; and that their growing power has a lot to do.
UPDATE: Hah!
Stripping a dying Russia down to the bone could offer a far greater return on investment [for China] than a combative near-term push on Taiwan now.Russia will never be weaker than it is today, while Taiwanese attitudes may well change over time. ...
A Chinese push to reclaim Asian Russia makes sense. Taiwan offers China little more than strife, while a press—diplomatic or otherwise—to push Russia out of Asia opens far more profitable options to the hungry and expansion-minded Chinese state.
I've been droning on about this for years. See? Not crazy. No sirree.
NOTE: War updates continue here.
