The Russians appear to be shifting units away from the Pokrovsk region in order to reinforce some recent successes entering the Dnipropetrovsk province and push west.
ISW reported the shift of troops that also simplifies Russian command and control by unmingling units from different combined arms armies. But the purpose is unclear:
The reason for the redeployment of elements of the 41st CAA is unclear at this time. The area east and south of Novopavlivka has been relatively less active recently compared to other areas of the front that Russia is prioritizing, although a Ukrainian military source suggested that Russian forces recently intensified the tempo of attacks in the area.[33] The Russian military command may be redeploying 41st CAA elements to allow them to rest and reconstitute away from more active sectors like the area near Pokrovsk. The redeployments may alternatively indicate that the Russian military command intends to intensify offensive operations in the Novopavlivka direction. Russian forces may aim to collapse the Ukrainian salient near Novopavlivka, level the frontline, and reduce the threat of Ukrainian counterattacks on Russia’s flanks in the area. An intensification of Russian offensive operations near Novopavlivka would likely also aim to generate informational effects about deeper Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russian military command may have reduced the force grouping south of Pokrovsk as it intends to deprioritize frontal assaults on Pokrovsk itself from the south, choosing instead to focus on efforts to envelop Pokrovsk from the north.
If Russia needs to rest units, does this mean Ukraine has some opportunities to counter-attack? But based on past reports of a Russian fall offensive, it seems more likely that Russia intends to push through Novopavlika.
Otherwise, strategic warfare in the air continues with both sides escalating drone and missile attacks behind enemy lines. Ukraine is striking deeper, too, with its focus on oil targets seemingly taking a bite out of Russia's economy.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Keep in mind that as some hyper-ventilated over the claim America was abandoning Ukraine, this type of intelligence sharing was ongoing at a more tactical level:
American and Ukrainian officials speaking to the Financial Times have reported that the United States has been playing a key role in the ongoing large scale attacks on Russian energy facilities being launched from Ukraine.
If you had been reading my work, you would have known better.
Of course, I've read China is helping with Russian targeting inside Ukraine.
UPDATE (Wednesday): American weapons continue to flow to Ukraine--but not as American aid:
United States Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said “firepower” is coming to Ukraine through European nations’ purchases of US weapons, but whether that includes American-made Tomahawk missiles is still not clear.
I said we'd find a way. But instead of breathing, too many simply panicked.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
