I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: The Western Alliances Will Be Just Fine
In case you missed it on Substack: Are Carriers an Admiral Full Employment Device?
In case you missed it on Substack: OBJECTIVE: Hezbollah
In case you missed it on Substack: The New (Old) Marine Corps?
NATO not brushed back from the plate: "NATO could transform the current mission monitoring the airspace over its eastern flank into a full defensive operation following repeated incursions by Russian drones and jets, a top military officer said on Saturday."
In two days, it will be two years since Hamas and its allied small jihadi groups invaded Israel to rape, murder, and kidnap on a grand scale. Since then Hamas has used Gazans as human shields to keep the war going in the face of punishing Israeli ground and air attacks. Now Israel seeks to compel surrender.
Russia and China tried to delay "snapback" sanctions on Iran by persuading a majority to delay them. I'm quite surprised they didn't argue that the entire "snapback" mechanism is illegal under the U.N. charter. Let's see if the sanctions can be enforced.
Maduro is arming Venezuelans with rifles. He assumes they would be used against American invaders. But what if American invaders never arrive? What will the armed, poverty-stricken people use them for?
Russia: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday said any aggressive actions made toward Russia will be met with a 'decisive response.'" Why is Lavrov threatening China?
We were about jihadis getting nukes. Whether that's Sunni terrorist groups or the Shia rulers of Iran. But what if a nuclear state pursuing long-range missiles is taken over by jihadis?
Oh FFS: "A new government watchdog report found that military ground vehicles used by the Army and Marine Corps are often not able to be used in the field by troops."
Despite grand surface fleet announcements, Russia has wisely prioritized nuclear-powered submarines for their nuclear deterrent force and the boats to protect them.
Well, mostly deserters, to be precise: "A growing number of armed Russian soldiers are operating as criminal gangs, stealing what they can and living off plunder. Local Russian police are unable to control this mayhem." They will be perfect for a civil war.
Russia has turned to Cuba for more mercenaries to die in Ukraine.
Russia has hauled out a World War I weapon, Chloropicrin gas, to use against Ukrainian troops. At this point, I'd be hard-pressed to put business before pleasure should China invade Russia to retake their lost territories.
Can Ukraine adapt? Will this backfire and encourage Western small drone production? "China has stopped selling Ukraine drones and drone components."
The pro-EU party beat the pro-Russia party in Moldova's election. It's a defeat for Russia. I wish there was a pro-West but non-EU party to achieve a true victory for the West. But I'll take it for now.
The U.S. has a plan that leads to a Palestinian state. As long as it is de-jihadified.
But how vulnerable is it to relatively cheap suicide satellite swarms? "The United States is embarking on an ambitious project to redefine satellite deployment through the development of an orbital aircraft carrier."
This seems like is should be something that every armored combat vehicle should have: "Some maritime special operators are getting a robotic turret that can turn machine guns into an autonomous drone-killer for boats and other vehicles." And other platoons or batteries could have a separate vehicle with APS+.
Marine stand-in forces must prepare to overcome sustainment, survivability, and isolation problems on their worst days. I don't know, I can imagine much worse days. But the effort is worthy.
Is it progress that Europe is being organized by fanatics to carry out a final solution to global warming by making Europe carbon free?
Sweden will provide the backbone of a NATO brigade in northern Finland, providing a unit that promotes Arctic combat skills. Denmark, and Norway will provide combat units; France, the UK, and Iceland will provide staff and support. Finland will provide two brigades. The total will add up to a division. Good!
When a federal agency intended to protect us from foreign bad actors is turned against Americans so easily, it makes it harder to convince Americans that foreign threats should be defeated. Stay in your lane, agencies. Tip to Instapundit.
Children's Crusade 2.0 nears its end.
Turkey used to own Egypt in the caliphate: "Turkey and Egypt staged their first joint naval drill in more than a decade last week, signaling a cautious thaw in relations after years of political hostility." But for Egypt it is a balance to reliance on the Saudis. And Turkey would like free access to the Horn of Africa.
If they can't be dead good jihadis I at least want them to remain imprisoned jihadis: "U.S. Central Command is stepping in to help reduce the population of
large detention camps in northeast Syria that officials say have become
incubators for ISIS radicalization."
Good luck: "French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to back a “conference that our Saudi friends will hold” in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces, as the LAF prepares for the contentious mission to disarm Hezbollah."
Sure: "A war between NATO and Russia would be one- sided even without the Americans. European NATO nations can raise far more troops and equip them with more tanks, warplanes and warships than Russia can muster." But until they are raised and deployed, a reconstituted Russian army will take ground.
Not really: "Recent attacks in Russia, the Middle East, and Ukraine show that bases are easy targets for drones, missiles, and drone-missile hybrids[.]" Russia, Israel, and even Ukraine continue to use their air bases. By all means defend air bases. They've always been attacked. Let's not get carried away.
New national security strategy to make fortifying America a priority. Well, CONUS is the foundation for force projection.
Hello China! "A U.S. Navy guided-missile submarine capable of carrying up to 154 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles arrived for a port visit to the Philippines last week during its Pacific patrol, the sea service confirmed."
Is the U.S. failing? "Ukraine’s war has shifted the drone revolution to the ground, where unmanned ground vehicles now deliver supplies, evacuate wounded, breach mines, conduct ISR, and lay suppressive fire." I am not impressed with small ground drones. They remain a potential asset for the Army.
The Army needs to build air defenses to guard against hundreds of incoming missiles and suicide drones per day. And when is the first Russian thousand-asset raid of this war?
Hamas is unlikely to agree to Trump's 20-point plan. That's okay. While it would be nice if Hamas accepted it, I imagine the likely purpose is to green light the Israeli offensive until its conclusion.
I would have guessed Erdogan: "Surprise! That Sumud 'relief' flotilla crossing the Mediterranean to the Gaza Strip is actually a Hamas operation, according to secret documents just uncovered by Israeli forces operating in Gaza."
Huh (via Instapundit): "The Trump administration is pressuring Taiwan to rapidly move 50 percent of its chip production into the US if it wants ensured protection against a threatened Chinese invasion[.]" That's something new?
Uh oh: "Youth-led protests over power and water outages in Madagascar intensified on Tuesday despite President Andry Rajoelina's move to dismiss the government a day earlier."
Oh? "The European Commission on Monday proposed four key defense projects — including a drone wall to block Russian aerial aggression." I worry that the EU only wants the power to run projects and that the success of the projects is secondary, at best.
Taiwan: "'if Russia is defeated, China will be left alone to be dealt with by the whole Western camp,' he told the crowd. 'Second, when China and Russia are working together, they intimidate the whole world. Third, if Russia is defeated, China will have to handle Taiwan and whole world will pay attention.'"
Can't let the wrong sort bring peace to Gaza? Or maybe the anti-Israel critics can handle only two outcomes--the destruction of Israel or the destruction of all Gazans. Either outcome would fit with their view of the world.
Hegseth said the military's only goal is "preparing for war and preparing to win" in order to "be strong so that we can prevent war in the first place." Good. Lesser standards for defense with lesser means lead to war. Honestly, I think the public speech to senior officers was for lower rank enlisted and officers.
Resisting China: "New Mexico-based contractor Ace Builders, Inc. was selected last week for a $975,000 design-build project of a small boat maintenance facility at Naval Detachment Oyster Bay in Western Palawan."
Rising sun: "The first Japanese warship destined to receive a Tomahawk cruise missile capability is now sailing to the United States for the required modifications." Bravo, China.
This time, for sure! "The United Nations Security Council on Tuesday adopted a resolution to transform a UN-backed security mission in gang-dominated Haiti into a larger, full-fledged force with military troops."
It's just feeding the dragon, hoping to be its last meal: "The idea of a grand bargain with Beijing that trades Taiwan’s autonomy for 'stability' is seductive." It's delusional. Giving people to monsters is immoral and counter-productive.
Macron is worried that German rearmament won't be funneled through the EU. Broke France can't afford the same and has long wanted the German oxen yoked to France's wagon. Well, Macron's wagon.
How can the U.S.-South Korea alliance be updated? North Korea isn't the invasion threat it used to be. And the ROK has the ability to confront China at sea rather than fixate on the DMZ. So sure, an update would be nice.
Russia fears a Golden Dome will neutralize their strategic nuclear weapons. Seriously? How thick do they think the shield will be to shoot down their huge arsenal? Unless ... .
Unit 888: "Israel has formed Refaim, a new experimental Special Operations unit combining ground operations, drones, robotics, and real-time intelligence." Toss in AI in the discussion of countering enemies.
Sh*t got real: "The French navy was Wednesday on board a tanker from Russia's "shadow fleet" stationed off France[.]"
As the EU seeks "strategic autonomy" with broad military power, this is why I mistrust the EU: "giving more power to Brussels means granting more authority to bureaucrats who, for decades, have made European states less wealthy, less secure, and less free."
Trump signed an order pledging to protect Qatar from attack. Reassurance against Israel or is it against Iran?
Get back to me when it is "all": "The US Army says it has mitigated several cybersecurity risks discovered in an early iteration of its nascent Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) platform[.]"
Romania seeks American Abrams tanks.
If South Korea wants to blame Trump in order to increase defenses, I'm fine with that.
Senior NATO land commanders met in the victim of Russia's original Winter War.
Hey, Russia! "Protective Fence 25 has brought roughly 50 aircraft and 1,200 personnel from Finland and partner nations into a week of dispersed air operations across Finland and Sweden, the UK Defence Journal understands." BOOM
The World War II model is gone: "Absent pre-war reconstruction of critical enablers, a modern two-front mobilization would be slower, more brittle, and vulnerable to collapse under attrition before decisive effects could be generated."
The Army will upgrade ARNG helicopter units by reducing the number of active Army AH-64Es.
The U.S. will sell HIMARS to Australia. As I suspected, there may be an anti-ship angle.
Thank you for playing, Greta. Here are your lovely parting gifts. Seemingly everyone in the flotilla threw their electronic devices into the sea before the Israeli troops could seize them. Tip to Instapundit.
Uh oh: "At least two people have been killed in Morocco after police opened fire to prevent protesters from storming a police station in Lqliaa, near the coastal city of Agadir, state media says." "Huge youth-led protests" had started over a week ago.
My oath of enlistment was different, encompassing the state constitution, too, but enemies are not just foreign: "... I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic ..." Just saying as a point of clarification.
Scouting the undersea battle space: "The Philippine Coast Guard confiscated a Chinese-made autonomous underwater vessel operating within the country’s waters in the South China Sea over the weekend[.]"
Hmm: "President Donald Trump has declared drug cartels to be unlawful combatants and says the United States is now in an "armed conflict” with them[.]" Either I'm wrong or this is more misdirection. Or the healing power of "and", of course.
Um: "As Russian drone incursions across Europe spike, the European Union committed Wednesday to one of the most ambitious multi-nation defense projects in history: a Europe-wide 'drone wall[.]'" I just hope the EU values the "wall" more than it values gaining the power to build such a wall.
Terrorists had to take over airliners to have an air force on September 11, 2001. Now they can just buy their own drones to threaten our homeland.
That would be a "no." Consequences to follow.
Red Sea: "The Houthis are claiming an attack on a Dutch cargo ship that resulted in a fire and left two crew members injured." Will Egypt finally secure its Suez Canal cash cow?
Critical condition: "Deposed Syrian tyrant Bashar al-Assad was poisoned in Russia right under his pal Vladimir Putin’s nose, according to a human rights watchdog." He's of no use to Russia, now. If the report is true, of course. If it was not done with Putin's approval, he may worry about his own security.
Pity that Britain imported so many actual and potential jihadis: "The suspect behind the deadly car and knife terror attack outside a synagogue in Manchester in the United Kingdom on Thursday has been identified by police as Jihad Al-Shamie, a 35-year-old British citizen of Syrian descent."
Face it, NGOs are the Houthi logistics arm for non-weapons supplies.
A call for conventionally powered attack submarines. While the idea is sound to supplement SSNs, the Navy worries that if Congress has that option, that the Navy will get too few SSNs because the conventional boats are cheaper. But honestly, after not building them for so long, they won't be cheaper.
I did not know that Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines cannot use Harpoon anti-ship missiles. FFS.
Hmm. Good in theory. But I'm not sure how one would exploit reservists' civilian skills without tearing apart the units the reservists are in. Units the military needs to fight.
Does China feel a closing window of opportunity to use its military to cement its status? I saw the window closing on their foundation of power some time ago. Using military power with a shaky foundation simply risks accelerating the downhill slide. China could totally make that mistake.
The UAE's base building around the Gulf of Aden in Somaliland, Puntland, and Yemen's Socotra Island and other locations. This is done with Israel and with America's help. I mentioned Socotra not long ago. And the projects have been around for a while. The UAE also has a presence in Sudan. Busy dudes.
European countries aren't all on board the "drone wall" project.
Trump accepted Hamas' non-acceptance acceptance of the plan. Why pretend Hamas didn't reject it? Of course, if Hamas releases all of the living and dead hostages it holds, its objections may not matter.
I'd like some context on the claimed West Bank body count.
Thirty thousand North Korean support troops are expected to enter Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory in a few months. North Korea seemingly doesn't want to repeat the destruction of their initial combat element.
Interesting: Could the president use the Defense Production Act to order defense industry "primes" produce defense items he believes is critical for a war he believes is imminent? Or would the Supreme Court strike it down post-Chevron?
Do it right: "With the White House noticing the start of the mandated six-year review of the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, the clock is ticking on the future of the most consequential trade partnership in America’s history."
We're still just considering it? "Earlier this year the United States threatened to halt $336 million in aid to the Palestinian Authority/PA if the Palestinians did not halt their Pay for Slay program."
Interesting: "Kim Jong-un tries to assure Xi that North Korea is not looking to hedge against China with its pursuit of stronger ties with Russia, and attempt at new dialogue with the US." My related post.
Is Ukraine's success against Russian oil refineries going to cripple Russia? Or will this be a temporary problem for Russia until it copes with Ukraine's surge in attacks? 
Recall that I've noted that Trump did not cancel that flow: "U.S. military support for Ukraine is expected to phase out over the next year as deliveries of Biden-era aid are completed." Which suggests American support for Ukraine won't actually end.
