The United States believes Xi Jinping ordered the People's Liberation Army to be ready for a war over Taiwan by 2027. Has the PLA already told Xi it has failed?
The Chinese government has instructed the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to develop a “force system” that can achieve strategic political aims “short of war.” In other words, be so strong and cunning that the PLA can convince an opponent to either comply or surrender to Beijing’s demands.
The PLA now uses the term “strategic weishe.” According to a recent Marine Corps University publication, the direction to achieve “strategic weishe” comes from guidance issued during the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress (2022). Achieving strategic weishe entails fielding high-quality combat forces and linking (or integrating) all domains of warfare (for example, propaganda, media war linked to economic coercion, and, presumably, staging combat forces).
Is this just a restating of Chinese efforts since the 1970s, an increased level of integration, or an admission that China is unlikely to have the military power to win a war over Taiwan by 2027?
I mean, sure, winning without a war is nice work--if you can get it. But why didn't China's rulers with their near-genetic long-range planning ability establish this strategic weishe objective decades ago rather than apparently aim for the ability to win a war? All of a sudden--without planning for it--the PLA is inadequate?
Maybe that PLA reality is a recent surprise.
Harnessing all elements of national power to achieve objectives is nothing new. But it just feels like a downgrading of military power just as American "integrated deterrence" policy seemed.
Or maybe it is just Westerners observing patience and caution. And interpreting it as deep planning.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
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NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
