Is invasion really China's last resort to absorb Taiwan? Even if the generals say they are ready?
China clearly wants to own Taiwan, which increases tension in the region:
Other factors have also contributed to growing anxiety about Taiwan’s future. Few doubt that China would try to use force to seize Taiwan militarily if it felt all other options to prevent permanent separation had been exhausted, but Beijing’s strong preference would be to take it over peacefully—with the island’s economy, technology, and human capital still intact. To achieve that goal, China is using a combination of relentless propaganda, infiltration, and military pressure to undercut U.S. support for Taiwan and to persuade Taiwan’s residents that they have little choice but to accept a political accommodation that recognizes Taiwan as part of China’s sovereign territory.
Despite the anxiety, the authors think Taiwan is secure for now.
Maybe. But while I'm sure China would like to take it over peacefully, I strongly doubt that invasion is China's last option after all other means are exhausted. I think that under-estimates China's desire for Taiwan and China's willingness to take an opportunity to use force.
And the opportunity to use force could be a complement to internal Taiwanese divisions insufficient to hand Taiwan to China cleanly but sufficient to provide the margin for victory through an invasion that doesn't look like a Western invasion.
Did Putin exhaust all peaceful means prior to February 2022? Or did he use his shiny new military he wrongly believed was capable of solving the longstanding problem in a fortnight?
Maybe China will conclude it doesn't have the problems of those Russian steppe barbarians. Or maybe it thinks it only has to be better than Taiwan's military.
And China doesn't have to be right about its military capabilities to decide to go to war.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
NOTE: You may also like to read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved. Go ahead and subscribe to it. It's the right thing to do!
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.
