I post at The Dignified Rant: Evolved on Substack. Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of 2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: Is the Last Gaza War Going to Be the Last War in Gaza?
In case you missed it on Substack: Will the Air Force Get an F-21?
In case you missed it on Substack: Blue Water USVs
In case you missed it on Substack: Russia Aids Chinese Air Assault
Let's hope the people decide the government is the cause of problems: "After war with Israel and the United States, the Iranian government and people are reconsidering what they want and how they will get it." That's the path most likely to keep Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons.
UGVs have potential: "In the last twenty years there has been tremendous evolution of small unmanned ground-based robots." But so far I'm not impressed.
Japan's 2025 defense of Japan report: "The international community is now facing its greatest trial since the end of World War II." And this time Japan is on our side.
Campaigning season is over, I guess: "Marine Rotational Force-Darwin (MRF-D) Marine Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) 25.3 completed its six-month rotation and is now returning to the U.S., according to the Australian Defense Department." It took a long time to build up from its small beginning.
Interesting that Qatar wants to train its F-15 pilots in Idaho away from Iranian view. I'm amazed that some thought Qatar was getting an actual "base" here.
Containerized MASH. Well, whatever the modern name is ...
Threat response: "NATO will kick of its annual nuclear-deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon on Monday with what will be among the largest number of participating aircraft in recent years." Good. Putin likes big booms.
NATO says Russia's Mediterranean Sea naval presence is waning. At best, Moscow's squadron would have led a short but exciting life.
HMS Amagemnon submerged for the first time.
Assessing the Domino Theory. My view is that America's ten-year fight in South Vietnam prevented important dominoes in Southeast and South Asia from falling. We bought time to strengthen those teetering dominoes. And the fall of communism from Eastern Europe into the USSR itself is evidence.
I've hoped for the fall of both regimes for a long time. I'm wary of claims that collapse is near. The Sick Man of Europe weakened and lasted centuries.
Sure, China's rare earth minerals export squeeze will backfire. In the long run America will replace reliance on Chinese rare earths--that aren't actually rare--toxic processing. Much depends on whether or not China needs it to work in the short run only.
The U.S. is talking to Ukraine about providing Tomahawk cruise missiles. I've heard that ground-based launchers are scarce so this won't happen soon. But I find it hard to believe Ukrainian engineers couldn't jury rig some rail launchers to get them in the air.
The Army Prepositioned Stock (APS) program is being revised. The Army is moving away from afloat APS and needs to figure out where in INDOPACOM it can go. Just don't be targets for PLA missiles.
The manufacturer of the Army M7 rifle has lightened it my nearly a pound.
Note to AP: Israel's military victories and military might have gotten us to the point where we can think about Middle East peace.
That's great: "Denmark will buy 16 additional F-35 jets, invest in air defenses and maritime patrol aircraft and add to its fleet of Arctic-ready patrol vessels[.]" Some armored vehicles are on order. But what about more ground units?
The U.S. is working with Israel to catch up with China and Russia on AI military use.
The next steps for peace in Gaza. Basic problem? Many love Hamas because they kill Israelis far more than they claim to love Palestinians. Don't forget Plan B, which harnesses Hamas being Hamas.
Will tensions between Germany and Poland blow up the European Union? They should focus on being NATO comrades where the relationship is narrowly based on shared concerns about Russian aggression.
Will a crew-less UH-60 with front clamshell doors and 25% more cargo capacity keep helicopters relevant for the Army?
Building counter-small drone counter-measures. I believe the dramatic success of small recon and suicide drones was caused by entering a counter-measures vacuum over the battlefields of Ukraine. Capabilities neither side has will reduce that impact, as well as new systems, tactics, and practices.
Super-soldier helmet is "an artificial intelligence-powered modular system designed to integrate command, control, and battlefield awareness into a single, lightweight architecture for US and allied forces." Great. As long as someone with a big stick can't sneak up on you and club you to death.
Nukes were new. Is shipbuilding really appropriate for a "Manhattan Project for Ships [that] would elevate shipbuilding to the level of a strategic imperative, coordinated at the national level[?]" Out of my lanes. I'm seriously just asking.
Render unto Xi what is Xi's and unto Xi what is God's: "If Xi Jinping’s rule of China is so fragile that he feels mortally threatened by independent religious institutions, it’s hard to see how any Western nation can trust his word on anything."
Remember, Hamas promised to suspend killing Jews. Killing fellow Gazans is still okey dokey in their book. Tip to Instapundit.
BOOM #5: "President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. military struck another small boat off the coast of Venezuela, killing six people." What is the ultimate objective?
A disturbing lack of urgency from a peacetime CONUS entity and troops overseas under fire: "If you're a kid at Tower 22, you're looking at your watch. Back here, we're looking at calendars."
The Army wants new smoke screens. Yes, I mentioned the need for obscurants the cited author addressed as one means of battling persistent battlefield surveillance and FPV drones.
Pretty much? And we assume recon will detect threats in time? The new infantry squad vehicle can haul troops through pretty much any terrain in any conditions, but there’s a couple big things it can’t do: protect soldiers from an ambush or allow someone to provide cover in the event of one." I do not like the ISV.
Russia is raiding the already inadequate civilian medical system to cope with high military casualties. One result is that civilian medical personnel are fleeing to the West. Now both civilian and military medicine is inadequate.
Iran may be disarmed with assets that can reach Israel, but the AI-assisted propaganda war between Israel and Iran rages.
China is escalating its subliminal offensive against the Philippines in the South China Sea.
The importance of Greenland for North America missile defense. Forget the invasion talk. America isn't going to do that absent a Chinese takeover. The point was to emphasize obscure Greenland's vital defense role.
How America reached the first step to peace in Gaza. Basically, when America and Israel started to take Vienna, they took Vienna. True peace requires a victory first, otherwise it is just a chance to reload. Much must be done yet. But I'm saying we've got a shot.
Ukraine's drone campaign in the Black Sea. I don't see this as a Ukrainian sea control victory but as an A2/AD success against a Russian navy that calculates it can achieve nothing at sea that would be worth the price Ukraine would impose.
Obviously, the Sainted International Community® won't get its panties in a twist over Sudan because Israel can't be linked to the war. Westerners use precision weapons to avoid civilian casualties. Others use precision weapons to increase civilian casualties.
The day after the Gaza "genocide" ended, as recorded by Gazans. To Hell with the Hamas propagandists. Tip to Instapundit.
"How the Houthis rule in Yemen: Prisons, a personality cult, and pilfered food aid[.]" I've mentioned how NGOs are the Houthi logistics service.
Does China really have the edge in an economic war? We can mine and process rare earths if we want to. Will debtors renounce their debt? How much economic pain can the Chinese people endure before blaming the CCP. Regime change is a feature (elections) in the West. The CCP won't see things that way.
155mm LRMP punch: "A controlled artillery round that can hit targets from 120 kilometers away in GPS-denied environments was successfully tested at U.S. Army Yuma Proving Ground, Arizona." It's not cheap. But the God of War is pleased.
Huh. Who knew powdered sugar is a smoke device ingredient?
25th infantry Division says putting drones into squads. Said one brigade commander: "I certainly want to enable squads, but I also don’t want to encumber squads. … There’s enough stuff for these guys to do." This is exactly what I was saying! Of course, not as fast as the Booker getting cancelled after this post.
Huh: "The Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) saw a decrease in airspace violations from China and Russia aircraft during the first half of Fiscal Year 2025 compared to the prior year." Good. Unless it is a maintenance stand-down prior to commencing military operations.
Germany ordered 20 more Typhoon fighters.
Western subs concerned? "The People's Liberation Army is building an “invisible net” across the western Pacific, a five-layer, seabed-to-space sensor architecture known as the Transparent Ocean strategy" How robust is the network? Could the PLA want a SSBN bastion near their coast?
Building the prototype of the M1E3 Abrams tank. It has an APS that could be adapted for counter-drone work. And it is lighter. But what about passive protections?
There's a lot of BS in this article extolling asymmetric means of fighting. The Peninsular War included regular British-led troops. Afghanistan wasn't an American battlefield defeat. Insurgent victories generally seem not to be from insurgent "asymmetry" but an occupier decision that winning the COIN isn't worth it.
Huh: "The PLA also appears to be strengthening its training for time-sensitive strikes against Taiwan. As Taiwan expands its asymmetric weapons, such as coastal anti-ship missiles, the PLA counters by using long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for reconnaissance and strikes along Taiwan’s coast."
The CCP exerts more control over PLA operation. Perhaps "Xi Jinping’s dissatisfaction with recent personnel management has eroded trust in frontline officers, prompting tighter central oversight in a domain once defined by initiative and flexibility."
The return of landmines marks a darker era for Europe? Seriously? Bad guys kept and used them. What is happening is good guys are remembering their value in a dangerous world. In the hands of good guys, landmines can help stop invasions. How's that for a "global norm"? A little nuance, please.
There is talk of a Western no-fly zone over western Ukraine. Why not a Flying Tigers 2.0 mercenary fighter squadron based in Ukraine?
Hamas turns on Gazans. Well, duh. Hamas may not be able to fight Israel, but Hamas always has an advantage over unarmed civilians.
Iran starts to rebuild proxies: "Earlier this year the Iran-backed Houthi rebels moved some of their operations from Yemen and crossed over to Africa. The Houthis assisted local Islamic terrorist groups in Somalia, Eritrea and Ethiopia. "
Russian AWACS no longer scan Ukraine: "While both the Ukrainians and Americans have defeated the A-50U, this Russian AWACs is still effective against Chinese and other foreign aircraft. Russia is saving its A-50Us for aircraft it can safely detect and track." Hmm.
Ukraine likes its latest ally--Trump. If you had paid attention to TDR over the years, people who side with Ukraine (as I do) would not have panicked over what Trump might do.
Will Iran turn to China to arm it? Well, Russia needs everything it produces, so it makes some sense. If Iran has the cash. Unless that really angers Arab states that export oil to China. Still, all the more reason to want the mullah regime in Iran to collapse. Or at least starve it of revenue.
Huh: "China is rapidly expanding its influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, investing $25 billion in Central Asia in early 2025 alone." I love it when a plan comes together. Russia should worry.
New American invasion route to Canada delayed until early 2026. Unless the delay is from Canada installing Dragon's Teeth obstacles, I'm just kidding.
1st MDTF: "The U.S. Army’s first unit to receive hypersonic weapons will get a battery’s worth of rounds by the end of the year[.]"
That is NATO's job! "EU countries have five years to prepare for war, according to a military plan that will be presented by the European Commission on Thursday and was seen by POLITICO." The EU has a higher goal than resisting Russia.
Because the Taliban have been shooting at India's (secondary) enemy, Pakistan. I mean, really, this is from the Well, Duh files, no?
Britain to put the UK back into the G-I-UK Gap to counter Russian submarines with Atlantic Net.
Sh*t got real. But how?
India to MiG-21s: Buh bye and don't let the doorknob hit you in the ass on the way out. India has taken way too long fixing this issue.
Sweden plans to design and build a new fighter jet.
Trump plans to meet with Putin in Hungary following his WDC meeting with Zelensky.
The U.S. picked up survivors from the sixth drug vessel struck recently.
China's shipyards are prolific, too: "China is now building its first nuclear powered aircraft carrier. The new ship appears to be similar to the latest class of American carriers, the Fords." But what will China use its carriers for? And if for war, is the solution actually simple? Can America execute that "simple" plan?
Nationalizing America's defense industry would be the most effective way to kill its innovation capacity. Which might be a feature and not a bug of those advocating it. We needed the military-industrial complex to win the Cold War. We still need it.
Oh? "With everything that is going on in the world today, there are precious few good news stories. With America’s help, Syria has the potential to become one." What's with the appeal of finding "tame" jihadis? Syria's Islamism in One Country approach is just a ploy to get time to survive and arm up.
Has the Army's reduction in branches like artillery, air defense, and engineering show the Army doesn't really appreciate conventional combined arms operations? Affording an Army able to win post-Cold War made sense. But if that adaptation lingers on with a failure to appreciate combined arms, that's very bad.
The Army is converting 25 infantry brigades (active and Guard) to Mobile Brigade Combat Teams. I have concerns.
This is true: "America must better understand our enemies. The U.S. cannot bribe them to be our friends." Not until after we defeat them, anyway. I will say that modernization simply hasn't yet liberalized China as we intended. But I will also say it is time to stop helping China's economy and technology.
Iran's mullahs order more cow bell.
Fellow Islamists: "Turkey has reportedly agreed to supply the Syrian regime with military equipment in exchange for Damascus allowing Ankara to target Kurdish militant groups on Syrian soil, anonymous Turkish officials told Bloomberg on Friday." The Kurds have problems.
Russia's "dark fleet" that gets is petroleum and coal exports past Western sanctions.
Ukraine's USVs get better. Ukraine is to be commended. USVs are useful. But NATO ISR is the key. And I don't see Ukraine as driving Russia from the Black Sea as much as Russia deciding no objective is worth risking its ships; or added nothing that other assets couldn't provide more safely.
A pickup truck with a 105mm howitzer. Is artillery cheapness and speed of "shoot and scoot" more important than range and shell weight?
Hmm: "A constellation of classified defense satellites built by the commercial company SpaceX is emitting a mysterious signal that may violate international standards, NPR has learned."
China is expanding missile facilities in occupied Tibet with the apparent targets of India and Taiwan. I've certainly noted the anti-ship angle that India needs to worry about. Extending their reach from China proper adds to the worry.
Xi's PLA purge continues. Can Xi trust the PLA? It's interesting that the political commissars don't weed the officers out routinely to keep them clean and trusted. But the purges continue.
Can Russia spin its absolute failure to protect Assad into a deliberate effort to speed his fall for the benefit of the Islamists who overthrew his regime? Will the Islamist government of Syria reward Russia by letting it keep and use its bases in Syria?
I still keep hearing that the Trump administration loves Putin and Russia. That take is quite insane.
Dealing with Chinese theft and intelligence operations in America.
Huh: "[Naval drone] warfare does not change the need for large naval task forces able to quickly move thousands of kilometers to the combat zone. Drones have had little impact on ship to ship warfare but have revolutionized operations in coastal or riverine operations inland." What was I just saying?
Maduro mobilizes his military and militia. After Maduro has destroyed Venezuela, will those armed people defend him or attack him as long as they are mobilized? Or will someone shoot at one of our planes or ships and unleash American strikes on Hezbollah/drug cartels? Tip to Instapundit.
Is Trump wrongly using war on terror authorization to use force to target drug cartels? Well, I'm not sure presidents need Congressional authorization to fight enemies. That isn't to say Congress can't impose its will. And if you want a formal declaration of war, be careful what you wish for.
