Both Russia and Ukraine struggle to recruit troops. But Russia is seriously losing troops at an unsustainable rate. Could the cure be worse than the disease?
Russia continues to crawl forward amidst local Ukrainian counter-attacks that at least temporarily regain some ground and inflict more losses on the invaders. The casualties are enormous and Russian efforts to replace losses struggle to keep up:
Overall, Frontelligence Insight analytics see a major trend across the Russian army: rising sign-up bonuses, expanded recruitment from those held in pretrial detention and growing pressure on conscripts to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry and be sent into Ukraine.
“All of this suggests that Russia is struggling to sustain recruitment via traditional monetary methods. If this trend continues, the Kremlin will face a choice between resorting to drastic measures such as broader mobilization or confronting the same manpower shortages that have been a problem for Ukraine’s military for the past two years,” the analysts said.
The Russian Cabinet of Ministers’ Commission on Legislative Activity, on October 13, approved a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) draft amendment to permit the Russian military to use Russian reservists from Russia’s “human mobilization reserve” (see definition below) in expeditionary deployments outside of Russia without an official Kremlin declaration of mobilization or a state of war.
That targeted reserve force is an active reserve force whose members receive compensation and have training requirements rather than being in the vast pool of former soldiers. Russia may also be able to round up volunteer units inside Russia. Will this be enough or will Russia have to mobilize the vast pool of former soldiers?
Remember, Russia's rhetoric and pressure on NATO is not a sign of Russian strength. Russia is losing. And the chest beating and flinging poo drones is part of an effort to build a Potemkin Village of Russian strength and inevitable Russian victory.
Resistance is not futile.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
NOTE: You may also read my posts on Substack, at The Dignified Rant: Evolved.
