Laying the Keels for Naval Supremacy

Geography at least somewhat balances China's shipbuilding superiority in a long war. We'll need a lot more air defense systems to cope.

China can produce more ships than America can:

China emerged as a global power by turning itself into the world’s factory floor. It is expanding that power, and its military might, with another striking industrial feat: becoming the world’s shipyard.

More than half of the world’s commercial shipbuilding output came from China last year—making it the top global shipmaker by a wide margin. The once-prolific shipyards of the West that helped forge empires, expand trade and win wars have shriveled. Europe accounts for just 5% of the world’s output, while the U.S. contributes next to nothing. Most of what China doesn’t build comes from South Korea and Japan.

Yes, China has the advantage over America in shipyards. And Europe doesn't add much more relative to China's capacity.

And I worry that China could hit America's few shipyards despite the distance. CONUS isn't a sanctuary anymore. China would have difficulty extending that campaign to European shipyards. Which would push a perhaps reluctant Europe to join the war. Would Russia help China by hitting those European shipyards? When China has largely stiff-armed Russia's desperate pleas for help subduing Ukraine?

Or perhaps China's hypersonic missiles would intimidate Europe into remaining neutral, I suppose. Keeping NATO intact with robust American leadership would prevent the EU from getting the authority to do that, eh?

Mind you, that kind of threat isn't a one-way street. With America's forward deployed forces and allies near China, America and its allies wouldn't need fancy, expensive, and rare hypersonics launched from space to hit China's far more numerous shipyards.

Yet on the third hand, South Korean and Japanese shipyards would face the same vulnerability with China close to them.

Then we're both in a battle between air defenses against air and missile power going after the other's missiles and drones that can target close shipyards. 

Will covered or underground hardened shipyard facilities provide a decisive defensive edge?

And a battle to build warships and subs faster to avoid giving an enemy a lot of time to wreck the ship under construction would unfold. Could anything but cheaper ships meet that standard of speed?

So as long as I'm here I'll mention Modularized Auxiliary Cruisers. The new Liberty Ship to win a war?

Of course, ultimately I'd rather distract China inland to weaken their fleet before we have to face this problem. 

UPDATE: American sealift is scarily insufficient. Tip to Instapundit.

Note that my meme shows Liberty ships being mass produced. This has long been a worry of mine.

UPDATE: We've long been warned.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

And Those Caissons Go ... Flying Along to the Wild Blue Yonder?

Combined arms gave way to joint warfare, which then evolved to multi-domain warfare. Now I can only assume we have moved on to assume other services care about your missions more than their own warfare. Because that's what I hear when somebody starts talking about airlifting 40-ton tanks to a battlefield.

Booker light tanks will be airlifted in for airborne troops when Abrams tanks can't get there? 

It is sometime in the future and the U.S. is at war. The 82nd Airborne Division has been ordered to conduct a Joint Forcible Entry into enemy territory. After the paratroopers seize an airfield and secure its perimeter, the call goes out for the next stage of the operation, and combat-ready armor support commanded by the division is flown in.

The first armor rolling off the C-17 in this scenario will be the M10 Booker Combat Vehicle, an armor expert with deep knowledge of how it was developed tells The War Zone.

Armed with a 105mm main gun, the Bookers won’t have as much firepower as the M1 Abrams main battle tank with its 120mm gun. Nor will the Bookers have as much armor to protect them. But they will require much less fuel and a far smaller logistical tail, and they will still be able to deliver a badly needed punch that can destroy armor, bunkers, and fortifications.

How many M10s can the Air Force sustain with aerial deliveries of fuel? Let alone fly to the landing zone? I mean, I understand that you love the one you're with when you can't be with the M1 you love. But the enemy isn't going to cooperate and send only forces unlikely to smash the pathetically few Bookers that will be on the ground in the real world.

Oh, wait. Apparently that mobility with "dedicated airlift" has been posited:

“The M10 Booker will enormously reduce risk, because it is part of the organization, meaning the Booker tank crews will also be on global response force status.”That means the M10s “will be ready to fly out immediately and there will be dedicated airlift for it,” the expert posited.

Well why didn't you lead with that? I'm starting to feel silly. Okay, no. I'm still unconvinced.

Really, Army faith in the Air Force is adorable! 

For bunkers, armor, and fortifications, won't there be Javelins? Or AT-4s or Carl Gustavs? Or even LAW? And no precision fires from distant artillery or even nearby mortars? And no precision air power strikes from an Air Force with enough air supremacy to send in C-17s?? No drone wonder weapons? I mean, the Marines decided they could win on a modern battlefield without their Abrams main battle tanks!

If not for 40-ton light tanks flown in on an airfield secure enough to land expensive C-17s--and if you talk about parachuting M10s I swear I'll strike you twice with a glove across the face--those targets remain immune to all the Army's local lighter and remote heavier assets?

Unless the enemy is unusually cooperative or niche scenarios actually develop, I think those few expensive Bookers that make it to the battlefield will burn. 

Unless mass-produced as a cheap new Sherman--that we assume will be lost and replaced often--I'm horrified at the thought of the M10 reaching a battlefield overland. Counting on it to arrive by air makes me need to change my underwear. 

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

The Winter War of 2022 Gets Bigger the Longer It Rages

The war will drag on--assuming Russia can't exploit the hiccup in American military aid to break through Ukraine's defenders. But just as the war extends into the future, we recognize the war started in earnest in 2014. And Russia's campaign to reconquer Ukraine started a decade before that Russian military escalation. What escalation might Putin intend next?

Avdiivka has fallen. Ukraine believed they'd bled the Russians enough and had best get out while they could before Russian troops enveloped and trapped the small city's defenders. The war will go on, as it has in a different form for for two decades now.

Remembering 2004:

A strong case can be made that Russia's war to seize Ukraine began in 2004 with a covert attempt by Vladimir Putin's Kremlin to subvert Ukraine's election and install a pro-Moscow vassal.

In Ukraine's 2004 national elections, Russia-backed Viktor Yanukovych ostensibly defeated democratizer Viktor Yushchenko. To the Kremlin's dismay, mass demonstrations erupted -- the Orange Revolution (November 2004 to January 2005). Ukrainians took to the streets and rejected the flawed election.

TDR was on that Orange Revolution, which our Secretary of State understood in the proper context:

"It is not a matter of (spheres) of influence, it is a matter of allowing a country to choose how it wishes to be governed and who it wishes to have as its friends," Powell said on a trip to Bulgaria.

But it looked ugly two years later as Ukrainian security forces faced off against each other. And Russia waged a cyber-war on Estonia. As I warned:

Oh, and we should stand firm with Estonia in the current cyber-war so that Moscow doesn't get the wrong idea about Western resolve. This isn't about Estonia and it isn't about Ukraine. It is about a Russia that is pining for its glory days and we don't know what they are willing to do to regain the old Soviet borders.

In 2004, Russia was too weak to do more than exploit internal divisions in post-Soviet Ukraine still struggling for its identity. 

In 2014, Russia was strong enough to prepare the ground to seize Crimea from Ukraine--but not the Donbas. And then through 2015 seized portions of the Donbas against fierce Ukrainian resistance--while denying it was invading Ukraine. Russia proved its military wasn't good enough for war. Notwithstanding Western panty-throwing early on at what was eventually dubbed "hybrid" warfare.

And in 2022, after building up its military into what Putin thought was a Red Army reborn, Russia openly invaded Ukraine rather than rely on using fading internal divisions in Ukraine for a coup or using glorious "hybrid warfare". While denying it was doing more than defending itself from NATO, Nazis, and Satan himself. That stage continues.

As Russia gets stronger, it resorts to more force to restore its Soviet-era empire that stretched to the Elbe River in the middle of Germany. If Russia is allowed to halt to reload, what level of force will it use against Ukraine in the next inevitable round after digesting lessons of its failure in this round?

If America falters in stopping Russia in Ukraine, what level of force will Russia have after digesting Ukraine? Who will Russia target? And where will it stop? And how much of a "distraction" from facing China will that be for America? 

As George Friedman observed, America has had a very good strategy so far:

I think the Ukraine model is going to be one we'll be looking at for a long time. If they won't defend themselves, do not join them. If they will defend themselves, send everything you’ve got.

America must resume robust military supplies and services support to Ukraine. We complain of allies who won't fight our common enemy and yet shrink from supporting an ally that damn well proves its willingness to fight? How does that even make sense? Get over the fact that Democrats are suddenly--and suspiciously--anti-Russian and welcome them to the party!

Keeping Russia as far east as we can reduces the amount of blood and treasure America has to expend. Send what we've got--and make more!

UPDATE (Monday): ISW thinks the Russian offensive culminates in the Avdiivka region now that they face new Ukrainian units:

These newly committed [Ukrainian] units are likely able to establish and hold defensive positions against Russian forces, degraded by their assaults on the town, west of Avdiivka. Russian forces, which have suffered high personnel and equipment losses in seizing Avdiivka, will likely culminate when they come up against relatively fresher Ukrainian units manning prepared defensive positions.

Maybe. Assuming the city was the objective and not simply battering forward to maintain territorial progress no matter what the cost. After all, the capture of Avdiivka will be old news by the time Russia's "election" rolls around. What fresh victory will be required to validate Putin's decision for war two years ago? 

UPDATE (Tuesday): I'll guess that prior to withdrawing the infantry that Ukraine pulled back any air defenses to keep them from being abandoned in a withdrawal if Russians pursued closely:

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said that Russia has “temporarily established limited and localised air superiority” during the final days of its activity in Avdiivka before the Ukrainian withdrawal.

We'll see if Russia can't repeat that. Especially after losing a number of jets in recent days. 

UPDATE (Tuesday): Five million Ukrainians under Russian occupation face Putin's forced Russification and ethnic cleansing to bring them under control.

For people supposedly in need of rescue by Russian troops from Nazis, NATO, and Satan, that seems like a lot of effort to have to make. Decades of Soviet efforts didn't prevent their subject people from fleeing the first chance they had in 1991. But just because it probably won't work doesn't mean it isn't evil.

UPDATE (Tuesday): If not there, the Russians will attack somewhere:

Russian forces will likely have to conduct an operational pause before resuming significant offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction or will have to transfer additional reinforcements from other sectors of the front to the area to prevent operations near Avdiivka from culminating. Russian forces have reserves available for such reinforcement in other sectors, but ISW has observed no indication that the Russian command is moving those reserves toward Avdiivka at this time.

Could we get a sense of urgency in restoring American military aid to Ukraine? All Republicans want Biden to do is first defend the southern border under our laws. How is that possibly a deal breaker for him?

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia regained the momentum in its invasion? Maybe. Russia certainly has the initiative. But it is more accurate to say America's polarized politics handed Russia some momentum by denying Ukraine adequate weaponry and ammunition.

After America pulled out of South Vietnam, South Vietnam conducted an offensive into Laos to cut of North Vietnamese supply lines. It was costly to both sides. But it used up a lot of ammunition and equipment on the assumption America would resupply South Vietnam. That was a bad assumption as Congressional Democrats cut funding to sustain South Vietnam's military.

Let's hope history isn't rhyming. 

UPDATE (Thursday): Russia is learning:

Russian forces are conducting a cohesive multi-axis offensive operation in pursuit of an operationally significant objective for nearly the first time in over a year and a half of campaigning in Ukraine. The prospects of this offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk sector are far from clear, but its design and initial execution mark notable inflections in the Russian operational level approach.

And is able to execute with a lower level of difficulty because of the interruption of American military aid to Ukraine which reduces Ukraine's ability to hammer the offensive as Russian troops come out from behind their minefields and out of their bunkers.

It is an interruption and not the end, right? We can't possibly be letting Russia win this interim war of aggression, can we?

Still, not all is coming up roses for the Russians:

Prominent independent Russian milblogger Andrei Morozov reportedly committed suicide on February 21 after refusing the Russian military command’s orders to delete his reports about high Russian casualty rates around Avdiivka.

He said he despaired of  helping the incompetent Russian military fix its flaws that leave troops as cannon fodder.

Sadly, Ukraine doesn't have the cannons to exploit the disregard for the fodder.

UPDATE (Friday): Russia doesn't want peace:

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia would likely have to seize Kyiv sooner or later while identifying Russia’s possible further territorial objectives in Ukraine.

And if it agrees to a ceasefire it is for the purpose of reloading.

UPDATE (Saturday): If Russia is inevitably going to win, why are they making such a weird effort to craft that message?

Recent Kremlin rhetoric has focused on portraying Russia as able to outlast Ukraine’s willingness and ability to fight, including outlasting Western military support for Ukraine, and Russian milbloggers‘ consistent claims of ineffective Ukrainian air defenses and other battlefield capabilities are congruent with this disinformation campaign. Ukrainian shootdowns of Russian strategic-level aircraft, especially twice within mere weeks of each other, severely undermine this Russian narrative. The milbloggers’ enthusiasm for attributing staggering incompetence to Russia’s own air defenders—the only possible explanation for multiple instances of friendly fire taking down the aircraft helping coordinate the air defenders themselves--is odd.

It works in the West because many people fall prey to the problem of seeing your own sides problems more clearly while the enemy's problems are in a fog. Oh, sure, we know Russia is taking have casualties and losing lots of equipment. If that was happening to us, we'd say we're doomed. Remember how Iraq "broke" our Army? 

Although the captain loss was a canary-in-the-coal mine alarm about our flag officers--not the war breaking the Army--as it turns out. 

But I digress.

But if losses happen to Russia? Oh, they can afford it! They'll never lose heart! Once more it is time to quote Kipling:

Man cannot tell but Allah knows

How much the other side is hurt.

Russia is hurt. I have no idea how much. But Russia is going to great lengths to tell us they aren't hurt. 

It took Russia's army three years to break in World War I. That's not a prediction. But it is a possibility. The Western Allies back then counted on Russia's ability to lose unlimited men and materiel fighting the Germans and keep on coming for more.

It is not futile to belatedly arm and sustain Ukraine. Better a bigger war in Ukraine that defeats Russia this decade is better than Russian victory in Ukraine and a bigger war across Europe next decade that involves our troops fighting Russians.

UPDATE (Saturday): Freedman gets it:

The wear and tear of a long war is taking its toll on Ukraine. But the Ukrainians have shown that they can keep fighting. The current Western fixation on Ukraine’s problems, and the difficulty of working out exactly what is going on in Moscow, has led to easy assumptions that Russia can keep fighting without also showing wear and tear. In fact, for all the resources that Putin has thrown into this war, the results have been meager since its opening weeks, when Russia acquired the bulk of the territory it currently occupies. Russia can find additional basic manpower, but it has a much harder time replacing lost junior officers and modern equipment.

Bleed Russia. Don't worry about "forcing" Ukraine to fight for their own future free of Russian oppression. I assure you, if Ukrainians don't want to fight Russia, they'll stop fighting regardless of what we send.

NOTE: ISW updates continue here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump. 

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Weekend Data Dump

Hamas never gets international warnings: “Israel is facing growing international warnings over its planned offensive in Rafah - the city in southern Gaza crammed with Palestinian refugees." I feel sorry for Gaza civilians. If Hamas cared, they could surrender.

Thank you. Your services are no longer needed. Tip to Instapundit. 

I'm glad the team that denied the Lions a Super Bowl appearance lost. And nothing about Kansas City offends me. But I was saddened that a former Michigan kicker broke a 30-year Super Bowl field goal distance record--and held it for 30 minutes. Egad. But it was a tense game to watch.

Shame: "roughly 60 percent of those flown to American either had [no ID] or 'had identification that did not per se, connect them to the United States'; ... while far too many of those with firm ties to America were left in a country where the Taliban was actively hunting them down." Biden hid defeat with volume.

Don't count America out. We have problems. The rest of the world has worse problems. And America has a history of fixing what is wrong. If you think China will replace America, think again. China might not even remain more populous than America. As I've noted. The "American century" will repeat. Again:

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have interrupted the Defense Department’s larger counter-ISIS mission in the region, according to an Inspector General report released Friday."

Sadly, just training for war is dangerous: "The Marine Corps has identified the five Marines who died in the crash of a CH-53E Super Stallion helicopter Tuesday in California."

I'll never claim China isn't trying to increase influence in the Middle East: "American defense firms may have come in droves to show off their wares, ...  but Chinese firms claimed the most floor space outside host nation Saudi Arabia. Beijing also put on an aerial demonstration for the first time."

British commandos get a new boat to reach the shore for raiding missions. Is this an "old" mission that new strategic assumptions call into question?

Building the "incident" for war? "The government of Venezuela accused neighboring Guayana Sunday of granting illegal oil exploration concessions in territory the two nations are disputing."

The media twists Trump’s claim about not defending a NATO defense laggard. It’s more of this pressure to battle this weakness. Further, fighting is not a NATO requirement. And Trump opposed Russia when president. I understand not liking Trump or his hyperbole. But predictable hysteria makes me mistrust you.

Russia’s surface fleet experiences significant shrinkage: “The new fleet will be a return to the traditional Russian navy job of defending coastal waters including the Baltic Sea and Black Sea. Even accomplishing that mission is in doubt if Russia cannot get its shipyards up to speed.” Wanting much more is folly.

Ukraine’s USVs work: “NATO naval officials are fascinated by this development and are learning as much about these USVs as they can because, for coastal warfare or operations in restricted waters, that can be a decisive and inexpensive weapon." Remember their limits.

The Mann v. Steyn verdict is a free-speech travesty. But fine, Mann’s climate data manipulation is way different than molesting young people. I assume this will be overturned on appeal. If not, it will be entrenched travesty.

I agree that America should resume robust military aid to Ukraine. But saying Republicans are blocking aid ignores that Democrats refuse to control our southern border—a basic federal responsibility—to get aid flowing.

Is the U. S. “distracted” from East Asia? Ah, another case of the Goldilocks Syndrome. Don't pretend we have few interests in the Middle East ("The area exports jihadis and oil. Our prosperity relies on the supply of the latter and the containment of the former.")--including Shia nuclear mullahs--or Europe.

Oh? “The United States became the world’s policeman not because of its security needs but because it could." Stability rebuilt our World War II-ravaged allies--and created new strong allies. Have no doubt we have security needs abroad. Nor do I see 'imperial overstretch' abroad.

All I know for sure is that you better not kneel in protest while it is played. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine needs men for the machine: "A potential expansion of the nation’s military draft to replenish the exhausted, battered army has become an emotional, politically charged issue." Ukraine wasted time--perhaps unavoidably--that could have ended the war faster. So here we are:
 

The BUFF lives on: "Sometime in the 2030s, the service plans to have a fleet of two bombers — at least 100 B-21s and the current fleet of 76 B-52s, modernized top to bottom with a slate of upgrades."

Were Israel's threats aiming for this? "The U.S. and four of its European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, according to two Israeli officials and a source briefed on the issue."

The 82nd Airborne Division is getting a new helmet Next Generation Integrated Head Protection System that protect against bullets. I started out wearing the old "steel pot." Getting older, here at TDR. 

Iraq said talks to redefine and eventually remove American troops from Iraq (when Iraq doesn't need them) will continue as long as nothing "disturbs the peace" of the talks. Is this a warning to Iran to cut out their attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria?

The rise of T-55s and T-54s: "Russia is running out of tanks." And its artillery tubes are wearing out.

Ukraine found the M-109 tracked artillery it received useful. But FPVs have proven cheaper and more useful for hunting enemy forces.

Just a reminder that Christian Arabs in America and their descendants are rapidly becoming the only survivors of Christian Arab communities in the Middle East. I mean, if you want to talk about genocide.

I wish Trump wasn't hyperbolic, giving "Europe" an excuse to shudder in fear. Yes, Trump induces faux EU shudders. Trump is a gift for EU apparatchiki who never let a crisis go to waste to strip the prefix from the proto-imperial EU. But not-Trump also induces shudders. The EU--not Trump--is a threat.

No, we do not need "national service". The military is short of recruits but any national service would have tons of exemptions to get that relatively small amount of young people into the military. "National service" would end up being mass forced labor and indoctrination for the progressive cause.

Of course Putin lied about Ukrainian identity fiercely separate from Russia's. Or does our shared historical, cultural, and language mean America was--and remains--wrong about independence from Britain? Should we welcome a Britain intent on "protecting" English-speaking people in America?

It's a low bar to say America is doing better economically than Europe. But no less true, even now with an administration seemingly intent on destroying free market capitalism here. Although sure, some of the edge is a sugar high of "stimulus" that even Europeans can't afford.

That's going to look bad on the Houthi annual performance review: "Iran-backed Houthi rebels targeted a commercial cargo ship Monday in the Red Sea whose final destination was an Iranian port, the U.S. military said."

LOL: "The former president of Mongolia mocked Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend and his focus on history to try to justify his invasion of Ukraine." Tsakhia Elbegdorj has a point. The Mongols did have a huge empire that ran through China and Russia.

Yes, America's allies are ramping up defense spending. But any equivalence with China's allies Russia and North Korea is rather silly. North Korea is tiny and hates China nearly as much as it hates America. And Russia is still trying to dig out of the defense hole they dug by invading Ukraine. 

I just see a lying, paranoid fiend with a certain animal cunning who has more territorial ambitions. But perhaps that's just me.

Western media always worries far more about the backlash than the lash: "We reported here at Jihad Watch on the gang-rape in Italy on February 5. The establishment media took no notice of it aside from CNN using it below as an opportunity to warn against the 'far right' using it as a weapon." Via Instapundit.

Oh? "'It's true to say that President Putin is confident that he can outlast the West and so it's incumbent on us to show the resolve to prove him wrong,' said a senior official from a Western country, asking not to be named." I think it's true that Putin says he can outlast the West. Russians say a lot of things that aren't true.

The Abraham Accords are alive. Not even Arab governments want to re-crown the Palestinians as Queen of the Victim Prom.

Why defend a state made by colonialists? "The United States should carefully examine the prospect of recognizing Somaliland." Ethiopia opened the topic. Let's examine it. Somaliland looks more like a functioning state than a lot of countries with a UN seat.

American liquified natural gas sustained Europe post-Russian imports.* But Biden scaled back future projects. So "as European buyers seek a full divorce from Russian gas, the pause on new LNG project approvals will raise some longer-term concerns." Smart Diplomacy®? *Well, most of it.

HAHAHAHAHA! "Customers now dump thicker and heavier 'reusable' carriers instead, triggering more pollution than ever - for only an extra ten cents per  [plastic] bag at the check out." But the backers cared so much! Tip to Instapundit.

Obama's intelligence agencies illegally colluded with foreign intelligence to set up Trump for investigation even before summer 2016. Not banana republicy at all. If true, of course. Tip to Instapundit.

Hur said Biden can't be prosecuted because of his mental state. But what about all the boxes of classified documents he had held for so many years? Why didn't the report tell us the nature of those documents?

Follow the scien--oh, ef it, just do what you want: "The Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention could soon employ 'Indigenous Knowledge' in their research, a document obtained by the Washington Free Beacon shows." Via Instapundit.

Government-delivered migrant domestic help: "Holy shit. They found a way to bring back slavery and make it woke." Tip to Instapundit. Did I call it, or what?

FFS, of course Hunter Biden sold access to his cooperative father who also profited. Via Instapundit.

Reachback for Ukraine: "A solution was soon found by updating a three decade old technique that used internet-connected troops in the combat zone with a large number of tech experts and other support personnel stationed anywhere in the world outside the combat zone." I suggested reachback for the squad.

Shell shortage: "Delays in NATO delivering adequate supplies of 155mm artillery ammunition have hampered Ukrainian abilities to defend against Russian attacks or implement plans to successfully attack Russian forces."

Old TDR reminders of the difference between Trump and Obama on backing Ukraine against the Russians. But Trump is a threat to Ukraine according to our Democrat-media complex?

The European Union wants to contest China for Central Asia. I don't believe the EU cares about Central Asia as much as it cares about gaining the power to contest China for Central Asia. 

Our little carriers in action. They are useful. But they aren't little carriers, really.

Ef these autocrats: "As Putin and Trump threaten from east and west, Europe must stand up for itself[.]" They blame Trump or not-Trump. They could invest in defense through NATO, but no. They'd rather gut it to command the ruins of European military power left in the wake of that outcome. You know the drill.

The Air National Guard would like more F-15EX planes. You don't always need stealth--especially for NORAD air defense missions.

Ukraine is certainly imposing a cost on the Russians for using the Black Sea: "Ukraine’s military said Wednesday it used naval drones to sink a Russian landing ship in the Black Sea, a report that has not been confirmed by Russian authorities."

From "Aim High" to "Aim From High":  "U.S. Space Force operators will be responsible for flying a new fleet of satellites that will monitor ground targets in near-real time virtually anywhere in the world[.]" They will replace JSTARS aircraft that debuted in Desert Storm. 

Via Instapundit, water detected on two asteroids, for first time. 

I'd just put new plaques on them detailing the horrors and casualties of Soviet rule: "Estonia’s prime minister has been put on a wanted list in Russia because of her efforts to remove Soviet-era World War II monuments in the Baltic nation[.]"

NATO says that as a whole, NATO's European states will meet the 2014 goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense by 2024. But only 18 of 31 NATO states individually will meet the goal. That's why Trump is hyperbolic about the issue.

Good for the victims, good for our image, and good practice for moving explody things: "Japan-based Marines are delivering food to a Philippine island where hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced from flooding and landslides."

The Navy is confident it can integrate unmanned ships into the fleet over the next decade or so".

Russia taught us we need to be ready for a long war. Now Iran's Houthi proxies are giving us experience shooting down anti-ship ballistic missiles. China has few allies. China must be so happy with what Russia and Iran bring to the table--lessons for the West useful for resisting China.

They're right: "Donald Trump’s allies are downplaying and spinning his comments inviting Russia to invade NATO nations, saying that he should once more be taken seriously but not literally." Real spin is claiming he literally invited Russian to invade. Trump didn't kill NATO and increased support for Ukraine.

Ancient tanks and ill-prepared troops are Putin's answer to heavy losses.

Hmmm: "Non-kinetic effects — such as cyber, electromagnetic spectrum or space capabilities — are often less understood than their kinetic counterparts." I'm not against this ... but as we look at bright shiny new things I think we risk undervaluing kinetics.

But remember, being a special force doesn't mean being really good infantry: "The leader of the Navy SEALs -- the elite special operators who most famously led the raid that killed Osama bin Laden -- says the units are pivoting away from being a counterterrorism force to supporting other elements of the Navy."

It couldn't be that they see us as not so much the strong horse as heading for the glue factory, right?  "Some Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, are increasingly restricting the U.S. from using military facilities on their soil to launch retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian proxies[.]" Fix that.

We're still in the Earth-Moon system, so this might be premature: "The Space Force is considering requiring prospective guardians to enlist for an initial term of eight years on active duty[.]"

I wouldn't need to defend Trump if Democrats didn't turn it to 11 attacking him. As they have since 2016! We could actually agree on much about him. But then they go ruin the ride by conjuring up imaginary crimes and plots. TDS isn't a good look on you guys. Ah, the innocence of 2015! Via Instapundit.

We have let our Tomahawk arsenal dwindle: "We may not be prepared to fight a long war, but a long war may be prepared to fight us." Tip to Instapundit.

Remember, the 2% NATO goal set in 2014 gave NATO members until 2024 to meet the defense floor:

It takes two for peaceful means: "The Philippines is committed to asserting its claims in the South China Sea even as it aims to manage disputes through peaceful means, its top diplomat said."

We shouldn't need to justify each attack given the ongoing Houthi threat: "American forces have carried out a self-defense strike this week targeting a "mobile anti-ship cruise missile" in Yemen that 'was prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea.'"

WTAF: "Iran’s Navy commander announced in a televised broadcast last fall that the regime owns Antarctica and will build a military operation in the South Pole." Just how much money did we release to Iran?

The Bennu asteroid came from an ancient ocean world. Huh.

Russian manpower shortages in the military and economy.

To control the Brown Skies: "Ukraine has created a new branch of their military, the UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) Force." Does it make sense? Is it a separate service or a branch of the ground forces? If the former, expect fighter drones (Army) and a loss of interest in providing ground support. Much background.

Ecuador bought the weapons from Ukraine: "Russia recently banned the importation of Ecuadorian bananas ... in response to Ecuador sending the United States some elderly but still functional ... Russian weapons and military equipment in return for $200 million worth of new American replacements." 

Pakistan "at a critical juncture after a contested election". It's a heavily populated, Islamist-infested country that is an army with a UN seat. And it has nukes. So ... it would be nice if it didn't follow Somalia's path. 

Germany reacts to Trump's NATO spending comments: "The speech caused many appalled German politicians to put even more pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz to boost defense spending, sooner rather than later[.]" Asking nicely didn't work. And the EU is exploiting them to get their empire, as I noted.

Hopefully enemies fear that those woke interns who hold the puppet strings are competent and resolute: "Would you be deterred by an antagonist you believe to be incompetent, irresolute, or both?"

Problem: "Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) has fired two ballistic missiles from launchers disguised as standard shipping containers that were hosted aboard one of its sea base-like vessels." I've long raised the issue and discussed how we can use it--advice Iran took for the ship that fired the missile.

Revising the XM-30 IFV design by letting troops practice using mock ups. I had thoughts on the next IFV in Infantry magazine.

The United States is ignoring Pacific island nations we advanced through at great cost in World War II. Yeah, I've warned about that. Tip to Instapundit.

For tracking--not shooting them down: "The U.S. military partnered with SpaceX to launch a half dozen missile-defense satellites into orbit Wednesday in an effort to protect the United States against hypersonic missile attacks." Good.

Racism. Such accusations rest on the speaker knowing the charge is false. Tip to Instapundit.

I haven't started a new post to add Last Hamas War updates since this one that I still update. But nothing has really changed in the nature of the war to justify a new post. I could apply the same rule to the Winter War of 2022. But major conventional war in Europe is a different animal altogether, no?

To be fair, Azerbaijan got its "peace" to reload: "Azerbaijan is planning a 'full-scale war' against Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said Thursday, two days after a skirmish on their border left four Armenian troops dead." Tip to Instapundit.

And yet it had more basis in reality than any Trump prosecution: "Seychelles' main opposition leader Patrick Herminie is no longer facing witchcraft charges after prosecutors dropped the case against him."

Huh: "South African troops in the Democratic Republic of Congo have suffered their first fatalities since their recent deployment to quell a rebellion." That would be a troop sponge if pushed beyond showing "solidarity."

Let's see if China can actually mediate a peace somewhere before throwing panties at Xi for challenging America diplomatic leverage. 

True enough: "The series of recent corruption scandals that have rocked the senior ranks of the Chinese military should make Beijing think twice about whether its forces are ready to fight, a senior U.S. defense official has said." If the problems exceed the scope of their objective. And if Xi knows their readiness.

International progressivism? Sounds familiar.

Huh: "A court in Hong Kong has ordered the liquidation of Chinese property developer Evergrande Group, once the world’s largest real estate company. The failure could pose obstacles to China’s economic recovery." And repercussions could shake the world.

Don't worry that changes in Ukraine's defense leadership is a crisis. It's normal. Indeed, I know I said on at least one occasion that I didn't gloat over Russian military leadership changes earlier in the war because I worried they would actually find a competent general. I preferred keeping those who failed in charge.

If our leadership can't trust our people with firearms under America's current Constitution, the problem is the leadership and not the armed citizens--or the Constitution.

So: "The U.S. recently conducted a cyberattack against an Iranian military ship that had been collecting intelligence on cargo vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, according to three U.S. officials." There is no indication of success. You know what would have worked? Sinking it! FFS.

Point: "President Biden is privately defiant that he made the right calls on Afghanistan in 2021 despite the U.S. military's chaotic exit[.]" Counter-point: "CSI: Kabul continues. The chalk outline on the ground clearly shows a pooch being screwed."

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russia didn't fear Hillary Clinton. 'It was a relationship they were comfortable with,' some CIA analysts believed, but intelligence was suppressed." It was bizarre to claim Putin desired Trump over Clinton. If true, why not affect the primaries? Democrats amplify Putin's ploy.

One shell to rule them all? "After two decades of development the U.S. Army’s new XM-AMP Advanced Multi-Purpose 120mm tank round is finally ready to be issued for use by 120mm M1 tank guns. The new shells replace several other types of 120mm shells." 

Don't assume Russia wins a war of attrition: "Currently Russian weapons manufacturers cannot deliver weapons fast enough to replace all the losses. Russia also has an increasingly more difficult time mobilizing manpower." I never assumed that.

Pouncing on Trump's hyperbole concerning European defense spending, we're asked "Is it time for Europe to take responsibility for its own defence?" Yes, as long as that means European members of NATO contributing more to that proven defense organization and not through the proto-imperial European Union.

The "stunning effectiveness" of the Iranian-sponsored Houthi anti-ship campaign. If American air power can't handily smash this threat, how can we possibly get "victory through air power" against a peer enemy? I don't think we're more interested in winning than in "sending messages" to Iran's straying rulers.

Venezuela continues to threaten Guyana while Guyana rallies allies to resist Maduro's territorial claims.

Putin critic Alexander Navalny died in prison, as Putin intended: "Navalny was moved in December from a prison in central Russia to a 'special regime' penal colony — the highest security level of prisons in the country — above the Arctic Circle." Can Putin ever provoke his future victims to take action?

David and Goliath: "[The Philippines'] coast guard and fisheries bureau 'will maintain professionalism in dealing with any unlawful and provocative behavior' by Chinese vessels in Scarborough Shoal, National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said in a statement released Friday."

Iran can't fight Israel to the last dead Arab if it can't arm them: "U.S. forces found more 200 packages of lethal weapons on a vessel intended to support the Houthis that have been firing missiles in the Red Sea and disrupting international shipments in the region."

Leading the economy has backfired. And if the government follows too closely it will tax it to death. So let's try getting the government out of the way of the economy, eh?

I seriously doubt the EU will create a stable and more prosperous world through the Asia-Pacific region. I think the EU wants a stable and more powerful EU via the power to negotiate with Asia-Pacific nations. But I'm cynical that way.

Tucker Carlson should look up Purchasing Power Parity before he decides that because he can easily afford groceries in Russia that Russians can. And look up useful idiot, too. I'm not living in the Tucker is a traitor for interviewing Putin Crazytown neighborhood. But FFS, Tucker should know better.

Teacher unions are destructive parasites feeding off our children and the many good teachers. Tip to Instapundit.

The president has always been a malevolent mediocrity. He's added angry apparent senility: "This is a real-life recreation of the fable of The Emperor's New Clothes, with the White House press corps playing the role of the obsequious courtiers." Tip to Instapundit.

Russian air transport planes. Which is important. Although moot for Russia since the paratroopers are pinned in Ukraine. 

Proxy: "In late 2023 and into early 2024, Shia rebels in Yemen, armed by decades of smuggled Iranian weapons shipments, sought to block commercial shipping from entering the Red Sea by firing rockets and missiles, as well as sending out speed boats carrying explosives or armed men[.]" They keep shooting.

Scarborough Shoal: "The Philippines on Saturday accused Chinese coast guard ships of "dangerous" manoeuvres after they repeatedly blocked a vessel delivering supplies to Filipino fishermen at a reef off the Southeast Asian nation's coast."

He won't be stepping on rakes across the international stage anymore: "John Kerry is winding down his career as a diplomat. It can't come soon enough." He was the worst Secretary of State. But how would one judge anybody's role as climate czar?

Overly focusing the Marine Corps to fight China--and to fight China's navy, I'll add--is a mistake.

Our so-called elites don't like the rest of us very much. As I've said, I once respected Democrats for aligning with blue collar people. Now, Democrats would reinvent sumptuary laws. Via Instapundit. 

On October 7th, America stood with Israel against the Hamas murder and rape invasion. Now, it's all "Dude, that was like four months ago": "[Biden is planning] a firm timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state ...". Nothing says fighting terrorists like rewarding Hamas. Ah, Smart Diplomacy®.

With a glowing self-assessment by the VP published, Democratic leaders may have reached the acceptance stage of their grief that Biden is unfit to be president. They may hope they can pull her strings as easily as Biden's. Via Instapundit.

Air defense: "The Ukraine War proved to be a major boost in sales of the European air defense systems like the Norwegian NASAMS and Germany’s IRIS-T SAM (Surface to Air Missile) system." 

What I want to know is how many Democrats think Biden is a failure because he didn't led us to Green Nirvana last week. via Instapundit. 

The Inconceivable North Korea Option

A number of our allies have reason to believe it would be good to have nukes to deter invasion by Russia or China. North Korea may aspire to conquer South Korea, but it fears China, too. China's ability to invade North Korea is advancing almost as fast as North Korea's ability to invade South Korea decreases. Could we reverse the order of ally getting nukes to someone with nukes becoming an ally?

It was all fun and games when the CCP thought North Korea would only nuke China's foes: 

The Chinese public, even with a heavily censored local Internet, made it clear they were not happy with a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons while still ruled by a homicidal and increasingly hostile to China tyrant.

Trump famously reached out to North Korea to diffuse their hostility toward America an our allies. I'm not sure how well it worked when Trump was president. But it sure didn't last under his successor. 

China was once flipped when we had a common enemy, the Soviet Union, during the Cold War. That alliance of convenience didn't last the ending of the Soviet threat to China and America.

Many people think we can flip Russia to pry them from China's dominance. I've long wanted that. And believed Russia ultimately intended to turn against China. Even if it didn't intend to be friends with NATO. But I think that it is a horrible idea to think we can flip Russia by feeding them Ukraine.

Certainly, American politicians have had ambitions to befriend an equally repugnant rulers with nuclear ambitions. 

But could we actually flip North Korea?

Consider that flipping enemies to allies requires a common enemy. With North Korea, we certainly have a common enemy--China. Koreans have long been dominated by China so all Koreans--north or south--have reason to worry. 

North Korea borders China. North Korea has certainly taken actions to block Chinese efforts to make an invasion easier.

And North Korea may think it must do something dramatic to avoid a Chinese invasion that America and our allies might tacitly support to partition North Korea in order to end a North Korean nuclear threat. 

Imagine that a nuclear-armed North Korea could deter a Chinese invasion of North Korea. And North Korea could transfer most of its army north. And even reduce it in size to make modernizing the remnant easier. Perhaps even see some sanctions reduced and eliminated in time. 

And with South Korea's demographic problems, South Korea could reduce its military in size. Any plans to operate north of the DMZ could evolve to reinforcing North Korea if China invades.

The DMZ could remain in place as a safety net to keep South Korea and North Korea worried that a war of conquest could break out.

There is long history arguing against such a flip. But only twenty years after American and Chinese fought hammer and tong in the Korean War, the flip of China away from the USSR began. 

But our options if a hostile North Korea clearly becomes a state with nuclear weapons rather than nuclear devices too fragile to be used as weapons are all bad.

Sanctions haven't worked to modify North Korean belligerence or its nuclear ambitions because China was a source of enough resources for the North Korean regime and its narrow base of support to survive and even thrive.

Fifty years after we fought North Koreans, maybe a flip based on a common enemy--China--rather than misplaced faith in bribing North Korea into good behavior can finally be an option.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

China Pounces in Central Asia

China has been making gradual gains at Russia's expense in Central Asia. Those gains just accelerated. And China isn't trying to muffle their growing influence. Can Russia really ignore this erosion of a huge buffer against a powerful country with actual territorial grievances against Russia? Unlike the fake claims about NATO aggression?

Huh: 

Uzbek and Chinese delegations produced numerous announcements and agreements, but the most notable may be their upgrading of the Uzbekistan-China relationship to an “all-weather” comprehensive strategic partnership. ...

And Tashkent recently secured Qatar’s support for the 573-kilometer Trans-Afghan Railway to connect Uzbekistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan,

I've long hoped that Russian-Chinese tensions in Central Asia would be a means to distract China away from the Pacific where our traditional allies remain vulnerable to rising Chinese power and ambitions.

The deal with Uzbek in particular seems like an open slap at Russia's position in Central Asia dramatically different than the politely quiet inroads China has made up to now.  China is letting the "friend" part of its frenemy relationship with weaker Russia slip.

What happens when that fake Xi smile turns into a feral grin of recognized opportunity?

Yet Russia fiddles in Ukraine while their former "Stans" in Central Asia burn. Hell, Russia took the opportunity--while still stuck in Ukraine--to give the former Soviet republics reason to turn to China!

Strategery. Hell, I'm quite serious that the paranoid Russian leadership could look at Putin's record and conclude it is obvious that China sent Putin to Russia much like Germany sent Lenin to Russia!

But I digress.

I suppose China figures, what's Russia going to do about it now? Is this Chinese threat to Russia the lever to finally flip Russia to the West?

Neither Russia nor America want China to have a secure master-and-vassal relationship with Central Asian states. This common goal is the path to a real defection of Russia from Chinese dominance based on a common recognized enemy rather than one based on throwing Ukraine under the bus and hoping that will sate the Russian territorial ambitions in the west. 

NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E. 

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.

Sustaining NATO Forces in Eastern Europe

Am I the only one shocked at how long it takes NATO to react to threat stimuli? Yes, Russia is a threat to European security. Supply lines to the new front line would be great.

Good. 

Germany, the Netherlands and Poland plan to develop a military corridor that would make it easier to move troops and equipment between Europe’s North Sea ports and NATO’s eastern flank, at a time of growing hostility with Russia.

The countries signed a declaration of intent on Jan. 30 to develop the corridor, with plans to tackle infrastructure choke points, such as low bridges, and slash bureaucracy around permits for cross-border transport of ammunitions and other dangerous goods, the Dutch Ministry of Defence said in a statement. They’ll also study how military rail transports can be prioritized over routine civilian traffic.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago made European countries realize they need to be prepared to move their military across the continent, something that previously hadn’t been high on the agenda[.]

It's about time we fixed that logistics desert:

Not only didn't NATO move troops into the new NATO states until Russia invaded Ukraine [in 2014], NATO didn't even create the logistics network to support pushing forces into eastern NATO.

We're out of practice moving troops to Europe, but we will learn.

Hell, I thought we should have learned that Russia is hostile in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia:

The return of a belligerent Russia means that the age of peace is over in Europe. Which means that the logic of reducing our Army in Europe is blown away, killed in Gori, Georgia under the weight of Russian armor.

Because you can't drop the U.S. Army into Poland on a large scale with a logistics desert behind it.

NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.

NOTE: I'm adding updates on the Last Hamas War in this post.