Thursday, April 24, 2014

Well That's a Bloody Giveaway

The Russians are passing out medals for the conquest of Crimea. Inconveniently the medal dates the operation from February 20 to March 18.

Given that the Russians like to claim they had nothing to do with the spontaneous uprising by Crimeans, this is embarrassing.

Here's part of the Google translation:

[These] days not only Crimean faleristics (the science of collecting orders and medals), but also enriched by a new international forensics rarity. So, hundreds of people in Russia and the Russian Crimea were awarded the medal "For the return of the Crimea."

Medal this particularly interesting because her Russian Ministry of Defense, which manufactures a medal and on whose behalf the award, the date designated military operation to return the Crimea: February 20 - March 18, 2014.

That's well before the Little Green Men (disguised Spetsnaz) appeared in Crimea, which I noted on the 28th.

Let's see, on February 19th I wondered if Ukraine would be the consolation prize Putin would collect for losing in Olympics men's hockey.

On the 20th, I noted the eruption of violence and the possibility of a Russian partition of Ukraine.

On the 21st, I wrote about Yanukovich's people fleeing and wondering if he'd call for Russian help.

On the 23rd, the situation seemed bad enough for me to write up a Russian invasion scenario.

So yeah, speaking of the Russian invasion starting on February 20, 2014 makes sense.

The bright side is that in about a week from beginning that operation in Crimea, the Russians had perhaps 10,000 local militias and imported gunmen rising up under the direction of their Spetsnaz.

Russia has yet to achieve that level of simulated uprising in eastern Ukraine after a longer period of time, whether you start the clock from February 20th or the more recent building takeovers I noted on April 12th.

Russia will need to fight a war to take ground in eastern Ukraine. And I don't think Putin wants to risk an ugly showing in such an operation that would tarnish the undeserved reputation his conventional military has collected from the impressive Spetsnaz operation in Crimea.