Defending Ukraine

Britain's RUSI looks at the opposing forces who would fight for Ukraine.

Ukraine has moved some troops. To defend Kiev from thrusts from northeast or east, Ukraine has moved 30th and 72nd mechanized brigades and 95th airmobile brigade, plus their own Spetsnaz.

These are from the Kiev region 8th Corps.

Adding to this is the mobilized 169th training center, creating a weak mechanized division.

If I was in charge of the Russians, I would not invade to challenge these troops since they need to defend the capital regardless of where the Russians move.

Why stretch out scarce competent Russian forces to engage a force that otherwise won't intervene in other areas of the east?

Defending in the Donetsk region, the Ukrainians moved the 25th airborne brigade and possibly parts of 17th tank brigade.

These are part of Ukraine's 6th corps.

25th brigade was ordered disbanded, meaning there is little in the Donetsk region to resist the Russians.

Although this article notes Ukraine's 55th artillery brigade (6th Corps) moving towards Mariupol on the Sea of Azov near the Russian border, it needs to have combat units in front of it to support rather than being a unit to hold territory.

Another Ukrainian mechanized brigade is in the Kharkov area. It is not noted as moving, so I assume it is still there.

Facing Russia's forces in Crimea are parts of 17th tank brigade, 79th airmobile brigade, and parts of 28th mechanized brigade.

The tank and mechanized units are part of 6th Corps. The 79th is a non-corps unit that was already based in the region.

Watching Transdniestria are parts of 28th mechanized brigade (of 6th Corps) and elements of 80th airmobile regiment, which I think is a helicopter unit rather than a maneuver unit since it is not designated as a brigade. So this is a screen only. And it faces a tiny and likely poorly prepared Russian force there.

RUSI thinks 93rd mechanized brigade (6th Corps) may have been moved to the far eastern Luhansk region. This is also from 6th Corps.

One thing to notice is the complete lack of reference to any units of Ukraine's western-most 13th Corps.

Another thing to notice is that 6th Corps is the unit facing the Russians from Transdniestria to Crimea to eastern Ukraine where Russia's subliminal offensive is still underway despite the Geneva agreement. The crisis turns on this unit's performance.

Note too, that 8th Corps remains in place to defend Kiev.

So Ukraine's military is largely static, with 13th Corps out of the way, 8th Corps defending the capital, and 6th Corps with a large area of operation on its own to face the Russians.

A broad front Russian advance in the arc from Kiev to Crimea spreads out Russia's limited decent troops, requires the use of poorer quality troops, and engages more Ukrainian troops, increasing Russian casualties.

This is one reason, if I was in charge of a Russian military offensive, that I'd limit it to the east and possibly south. Every speculation I've had on Russian military actions targets 6th Corps. If I use low quality forces inside Russia and Belarus, their presence alone pins most of the Ukrainian military in place rather than being free to move to the theater of conflict. And Russian air supremacy should mean that units that try to move long distance to reinforce that theater should be savaged by air attacks. That theater could just be eastern Ukraine, that region plus the south between Russia and Crimea, or even an operation that aims for that span of territory plus Odessa and a link up with Transndiestria. All of that is covered by 6th Corps.

Note, also, that the RUSI report says that Ukraine's armament plants that Russia needs for their weapons are in the south and east, creating an incentive to go fairly big.

The report also notes the intake of new recruits and discharge of more experienced conscripts that is going on now will wrap up by mid-July, which will reduce Russia's readiness to invade until the new troops are trained. This time frame is longer than I'd read earlier.

Ukraine's 6th Corps could use reinforcements. A brigade or two plus helicopter units stripped from 8th and 13th Corps would be useful, plus Ukraine's surface-to-surface missile units in order to threaten Russia's naval base at Sevastopol. New National Guard units could replace some of the transferred units and guard cities and static positions. Newly mobilized units could be sent to garrison static points in the east, as well, freeing up maneuver units of the active force for operations against an invasion as these static forces hopefully soak up Russian units that engage them.

And 13th Corps should have plans to seize Transdniestria.

Anyway, this is the best overview I've seen of what the Ukrainians are doing. They're outgunned and stretched out, meaning they'll be outnumbered at the points of contact. As I've noted before, Ukraine needs to inflict casualties and avoid defeat of their mobile army.