I've written that I don't think that Putin's boasting about the rebirth of Russian military prowess is justified by the virtually bloodless conquest of Crimea. That was an impressive Spetsnaz operation. But it was not a military campaign.
Thus far, it seems as if Russia has failed to pull off a similar operation in the far east of Ukraine between Kharkov and Donetsk.
Yet Russia continues to apply pressure by holding the threat of invasion over Ukraine and by supporting the Spetsnaz-organized uprisings in the east in defiance of the Geneva agreement to de-escalate the crisis.
Ukraine is beginning to carry out operations to reverse those operations. If this goes on, Russia will find that they must escalate to their own conventional military intervention (which they did not need to do in Crimea, although they were ready for that) or accept defeat.
Russia is heightening the risk of war by insisting that Russia can define what is an acceptable use by Ukraine of military power within Ukraine's borders:
"They (Kiev) are waging a war on their own people. This is a bloody crime, and those who pushed the army to do that will pay, I am sure, and will face justice," Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, told a meeting of diplomats.
If Kerry said that, I'd assume the payment would be karmic, in the fullness of time and counting on the judgment of history to place them on the wrong side of that tale.
With Lavrov, I assume that payment might be enforced by the 40,000 Russian troops massed near Ukraine and ready for action.
Ukraine, however, is ready to fight unlike during the Crimea situation where they were completely off guard and unprepared mentally as well as practically to resist--even apart from Russian operations to paralyze the Ukrainian forces in Crimea:
[Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy] Deshchytisa said his country had been taught a lesson by Russia's annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.
"We will now fight with Russian troops if ... they invade Ukraine," he said. "The Ukrainian people and Ukrainian army are ready to do this. Ukraine will confront Russia. We will defend our land. We will defend our territory."
If Russia is determined to make Ukraine pay a price and Ukraine is willing to pay the price, there could be a war.
Even if Putin just wants to destabilize Ukraine with all this sabre rattling, could Putin paint himself into a corner with all his talk of protecting ethnic Russians suffering abuse from reborn Gestapo storm troopers roaming eastern Ukraine? Might an incident compel Putin to act if he doesn't want to stoke anger within Russia for failing to defend those ethnic Russians from the fascist threat?
And with loose Russian talk of how America is orchestrating events in Ukraine to undermine Holy Mother Russia (Their Foreign Minister Lavrov said the West--we wish it was that united--seeks to "seize control of Ukraine," of all things. In fact, "the West" collectively would have been happier if Ukraine had quietly slipped into the Russian orbit without guilt tripping us about ideals of national sovereignty and democracy.), can we count on having no Russian pilot or ship captain get carried away in the vicinity of an American ship or plane?
We say we are ready to act against Russian aggression, too, although that readiness is sanctions-related only, at this point. But Russia will point to this as just the tip of our plot against them.
Russia would quickly occupy eastern Ukraine if they moved. They could probably even link up with Crimea along the north shore of the Sea of Azov if they try to go that far.
But I have strong doubts that Russia could hold the area cheaply--if Ukrainians truly resist within occupied Ukraine and if the Ukrainian armed forces continue to fight--with harassment that avoids a decisive battle--while not suing for peace to accept this further loss.
As I've said, Ukraine needs to fight even a war they would lose just to make sure that Russia knows they must pay a price for attacking Ukraine. Ukraine could still make Russia look bad by making Putin win an ugly war that forfeits the reputation of military excellence that Putin is claiming the Crimea operation proved. That's the only way to hold off their more powerful neighbor in the long run.
