Monday, April 07, 2014

(A Little Bit) Back to Iraq

I'll say two positive things about the length of time it is taking Iraqi forces to eliminate the al Qaeda (ISIL or ISIS) sanctuary of Fallujah, and other places in Anbar that al Qaeda is holding.

One, after we called off the first assault on Fallujah in April 2004, we prepared for the successful operation in November 2004. So we allowed a sanctuary for a long time. So I'll cut the Iraqis some slack on that alone.

Two, Sunni Arabs are being reminded of the brutality of the jihadis. That helps them remain within Iraq's political system. Hopefully it reminds Shias and Kurds, too, that they must remain united enough to defeat this threat.

Okay, let's add a third good thing. Maybe our government and the Iraqi government will understand that our presence will help and not hurt achieving success in Iraq.

But it is taking a long time. The jihadis are reviving a weapon I haven't seen since we were fighting there--bomb houses:

At least 20 Iraqi soldiers were killed on Saturday, most of them upon entering a house rigged with explosives northwest of the capital, security officials said.

Militants last week overran the house in the town of Garma, 30 km (20 miles) northwest of Baghdad, which had previously been used as an army post, officials said.

There was another incident just outside Ramadi, in al-Bakir, when Iraqi special forces cleared a building:

They blow open the outer gate with a charge and a bomb expert goes inside. He pronounces the building safe to enter and calls on the rest of the soldiers to search it. Moments later a huge explosion collapses the building, shakes the ground and sends dust billowing in the air.

The house was booby-trapped. Four soldiers are killed and 10 are wounded.

Strategypage discusses the situation. They judge that the Iraqis are slowly winning:

[Anbar] province is too large for the government to completely control and there are still thousands of armed ISIL men hiding out in remote locations. Using cars, SUVs and trucks these Islamic terrorists can quickly move to most anywhere in the province and launch an attack. The army checkpoints control the main roads, but not the many dirt tracks found in the semi-desert province. It is still a fluid situation but the ISIL are losing. To survive the ISIL increasing turns to looting and just taking what they need. This creates anger even among Anbar residents who have long been sympathetic to the Islamic terrorists. As ISIL loses more ground in Fallujah there are more attacks on security forces in towns and villages between Fallujah and Baghdad. This is supposed to take some of the pressure off ISIL in Fallujah and it probably does. Although the security forces are far more numerous they are responsible for the entire country and the additional guard duty and patrolling in Anbar this year is working many soldiers and police hard. It’s even more of a strain on the air force, whose helicopters and fixed wing aircraft are being worn out by the intense operations.

I remain disgusted that we walked away from Iraq just as we won on the battlefield. While I don't think our administration tried hard enough to remain to both fight al Qaeda and promote rule of law and democracy, the Iraqis played a role in their belief that they didn't need us.

They know better now:

Iraq’s ambassador to the United States gently chided his host on Thursday, asserting that American fatigue with war — a consequence of the prolonged conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan — had left his country’s security more vulnerable and was contributing to Mideast instability.

The ambassador, Lukman Faily, emphasized in an interview that he was not advocating a resumed American military presence in Iraq — “no boots on the ground,” he repeated.

But Mr. Faily also said that the United States should be more generous in providing other forms of assistance to Iraq, including greater intelligence sharing about security threats; more people-to-people exchanges in fields like culture, education and health care; and expedited delivery of billions of dollars in weapons and equipment that the Iraqi government has ordered.

I would like a status of forces agreement that would allow our special forces and intelligence people back in to assist the Iraqis in hunting jihadis. The Iraqis have systems to fire Hellfire missiles, so we probably don't need armed drones. But just surveillance drones would be helpful. And other intelligence. Training of Iraqis in Jordan is a good thing that we are committed to doing. And weapons, of course.

Plus do what it takes to get politics flowing again in Iraq rather than the growing suspicions between religious sects that has grown (we can't count on jihadis to erase all friction).

I'd still send Vice President Biden there to camp out in Baghdad to help Iraqis work out political solutions.

Let's act like we care about Iraq. Belated as that gesture would be, it is not too late to build on the battlefield victory we achieved by 2008.